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Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #650 on: July 04, 2014, 04:14:15 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Sunday of about -74k.

About half of that (36k) is coming from Hudson, Baffin and Greenland Sea. In the Arctic basin, the CAB has yet another area increase. The positive area anomaly of the CAB is now in absolute sense bigger than any of the other regions (with mostly negative anomalies). Lots of declines in other regions though, Kara and Beaufort have the biggest.

In extent the changes are much smaller, the CAB extent moves opposite from its area with a small decline. Beaufort and Laptev have the biggest decline.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-03 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4421.5   -1.3   -20.0    920.9   +2.0    +8.2    448.3  -17.4  -227.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   746.7   -4.5   -32.4    130.3  +10.3  -179.4    401.0  -14.8  -146.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   234.9   -8.0  -354.7      0.0   +0.0    -0.9    496.6   +1.3  -232.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   654.0   -3.8   -47.9    333.2  -17.7  -114.5    365.6   -6.3   -61.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     5.4   +1.8    -1.9     23.6   +1.9   +11.9    210.3  +26.8   +74.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    31.9   -5.6   +31.2   9213.9  -62.1 -1368.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4189.3  +29.1  +250.2    680.8   -9.5   -16.8    273.4  -14.5  -210.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   426.9  -25.3  -102.7     51.6   +6.6  -115.8    185.9  -14.9  -104.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    91.9   -4.9  -245.9      0.0   +0.0    -0.3    224.1  -15.8  -174.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   530.0   -9.0   +24.5    212.2  -22.2  -110.2    229.7   -3.1   -80.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.7   +0.1    -0.2      9.8   +1.0    +5.7    103.4   +7.6   +38.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     8.9   -2.1    +8.7   7116.3  -84.4  -873.1

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #651 on: July 04, 2014, 05:01:11 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,777,806 km2 (03 July)
Down 5,670,610 km2 (39.25%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,600,351 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 88,254 km2 from previous day.
Down 850,828 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -121,547 km2).
Down 279,751 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -93,250 km2).
894,778 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
59,306 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
404,854 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
31,871 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Third lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.98% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.61%) have recorded the second lowest.
48 days (26.09%) have recorded the third lowest.
73 days in total (39.67%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
7,199,650 km2 (03 July [Day 0.5013])
Down 6,287,687 km2 (46.62%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
4,965,640 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 221,829 km2 from previous day. (NOTE: 12 years in the record, including 2014, have seen double-century or greater losses on this same day.)
Down 738,494 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -105,499 km2).
Down 339,828 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -113,276 km2).
221,771 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
369,626 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
118,379 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
885,842 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest July to-date average.
Sixth lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.52% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.41%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (9.24%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (27.17%) have been among the lowest three on record.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #652 on: July 04, 2014, 05:02:45 PM »
Wipneus,

Excellent, thanks.

Michael's just emailed me with a copy of a mask, so I was in the process of emailing you and Michael to say I'd host on my Google drive - you've saved me some work there! I must admit I wouldn't have been updating daily, as you're doing so much daily work I hope the extra work of maintaining those isn't too much - I suspect not.

Having been playing around with your 'homebrew' regional numbers I have found recently that I need a long term view to assess how unusual situations like the present Arctic Ocean/Hudson/Baffin split is. I've also become convinced that compaction is a vital metric.

I'll be downloading that stuff in the morning.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #653 on: July 04, 2014, 05:33:27 PM »
Wipneus,

I must admit I wouldn't have been updating daily, as you're doing so much daily work I hope the extra work of maintaining those isn't too much - I suspect not.


Downloading, calculating and uploading is coded mostly in Python (a small bit in R ) and runs in auto mode on a Raspberry Pi.

The only worries are now the temporary unstable internet connection that I have been given. If the update is delayed that will probably the reason.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #654 on: July 04, 2014, 06:44:53 PM »
I suspected you had the whole process sewn up.  8)

AmbiValent

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #655 on: July 04, 2014, 09:06:07 PM »
Down 221,829 km2 from previous day. (NOTE: 12 years in the record, including 2014, have seen double-century or greater losses on this same day.)
What's happening on that day? Arctic Ice Mask Day?
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #656 on: July 05, 2014, 01:52:58 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,698,978 km2 (04 July)
Down 5,749,438 km2 (39.79%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,521,523 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 78,828 km2 from previous day.
Down 808,152 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -115,450 km2).
Down 358,579 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -89,645 km2).
894,052 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
51,869 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
352,255 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
24,821 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Third lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.95% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.57%) have recorded the second lowest.
49 days (26.49%) have recorded the third lowest.
74 days in total (40.%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #657 on: July 05, 2014, 04:27:26 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Monday of about -61k.

About half of this can be attributed to the CAB, is it finally making a run and produce some 21st century numbers? With the CAB, also Kara declines substantially.

The small decline in extent is smaller than the decline in the Hudson Bay alone. Compared with that there is not much happening in the other regions.

I calculated the compactness ( area / extent) of the CAB using the UH AMSR2 data in the "Home brew" thread.
With the NSIDC data I get on July 4 2014 94.1%, for 2013 87.2% and 2012 84.9% illustrating how compact the central ice pack is (as seen by SSMIS and calculated by NSIDC)

The regional details of today:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-04 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4418.3   -3.2   -22.9    922.2   +1.2   +11.4    458.0   +9.7  -216.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   749.9   +3.2   -21.1    116.5  -13.7  -182.3    413.7  +12.7  -127.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   225.0   -9.9  -352.1      0.0   +0.0    -0.4    450.8  -45.8  -254.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   656.6   +2.5   -44.6    343.3  +10.1  -100.4    364.2   -1.3   -56.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.4   -3.0    -1.5     22.9   -0.7   +17.8    221.5  +11.2   +85.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    28.0   -3.9   +27.7   9171.8  -42.1 -1323.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4157.8  -31.6  +237.7    691.7  +10.9    +1.6    261.1  -12.3  -219.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   405.8  -21.1  -113.3     46.7   -4.9  -114.1    205.2  +19.3   -78.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    87.9   -4.1  -239.6      0.0   +0.0    -0.1    211.5  -12.7  -168.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   534.9   +4.9   +28.0    207.7   -4.5  -111.1    224.1   -5.5   -79.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.1   -0.6    +0.0      8.9   -0.9    +7.1    105.0   +1.7   +40.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     7.4   -1.5    +7.3   7051.8  -64.5  -842.5

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #658 on: July 06, 2014, 01:32:55 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,647,194 km2 (05 July)
Down 5,801,222 km2 (40.15%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,469,739 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 51,784 km2 from previous day.
Down 711,398 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -101,628 km2).
Down 410,363 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -82,073 km2).
871,034 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
9,699 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
253,963 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
83,714 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Third lowest July to-date average.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.91% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.53%) have recorded the second lowest.
49 days (26.34%) have recorded the third lowest.
74 days in total (39.78%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
7,055,024 km2 (05 July [Day 0.5068])
Down 6,432,313 km2 (47.69%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
4,821,014 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 74,513 km2 from previous day.
Down 691,414 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -98,773 km2).
Down 484,455 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -96,891 km2).
216,622 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
392,865 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
28,380 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
862,871 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Sixth lowest July to-date average.
Seventh lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.45% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.29%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (9.14%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (26.88%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2014, 09:47:00 PM by Jim Pettit »

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #659 on: July 06, 2014, 04:46:36 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Tuesday of about -148k.

Hudson area is only -50k down, so a century for the Arctic basin regions. Big drops in CAB, Laptev and Kara.

Looking at extent it is mostly Laptev and Kara seas.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-05 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4413.1   -5.2   -27.8    922.2   +0.0   +13.6    414.9  -43.1  -256.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   724.7  -25.1   -37.5    102.9  -13.6  -185.7    410.9   -2.8  -122.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   220.9   -4.1  -343.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    401.0  -49.8  -281.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   647.6   -8.9   -52.7    357.9  +14.6   -81.8    359.9   -4.3   -55.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.6   +1.2    +2.5     21.7   -1.3   +21.9    165.9  -55.6   +29.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    14.1  -13.9   +14.1   9015.5 -156.3 -1393.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4120.7  -37.1  +219.0    702.9  +11.2   +20.3    224.4  -36.8  -253.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   380.0  -25.8  -128.4     43.5   -3.2  -110.9    212.9   +7.7   -63.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    83.9   -4.0  -233.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    177.8  -33.7  -184.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   531.3   -3.6   +23.0    210.8   +3.1  -104.5    220.1   -4.0   -76.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.6   +0.5    +1.3      7.9   -1.0    +8.0     91.9  -13.2   +27.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     4.2   -3.3    +4.2   6921.9 -129.9  -879.0

AmbiValent

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #660 on: July 06, 2014, 04:52:45 PM »
CT fell another 75K compared to the value given above.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #661 on: July 06, 2014, 06:08:40 PM »
CT fell another 75K compared to the value given above.

That is the last CT update, Wipneus is 2 days ahead of that. (the clue is 'next tuesday')

2014.5068  -0.9729630   7.0550237   8.0279865

7.055 - 0.061 -0.148 = 6.846

which then compares with

2012.5123  -1.6910814   6.0599308
2007.5123  -1.5544044   6.2961764
2010.5123  -1.5384184   6.3121624
2011.5123  -1.4737936   6.3767872
2013.5123  -1.0098864   6.8406944

so 6th place 786k above 2012

Asking if Wipneus can automate adding "approx 6.846m Km^2 6th place 786k above 2012" might be a rather difficult automation challenge. Given his excellent work which I wish to thank him for again - maybe it is a little much to hope for.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #662 on: July 06, 2014, 07:41:16 PM »
Update for the week to July 5th

The current 5 day mean is on 9,201,680km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,015,620km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,344,840km2, an increase from -960,280km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +112,960km2, a change from +198,770km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, compared to 5th lowest last week.
The average daily change over the last 7 days was -144.4k/day, compared to the long term average of -89.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -132.2k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -77.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -111.2k/day.

The loss this June was the 4th largest on record. The top 5 largest are 2012 (2.92 million km2), 2010 (2.64 million km2), 1999 (2.56 million km2), 2014 (2.37 million km2) and 2011 (2.36 million km2).





I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #663 on: July 06, 2014, 07:46:22 PM »
Good thing too: the interesting to some degree offsets the frightening.

Chris and BFTV, great graphs! Impossible (you would think!) to ignore these disturbing trends...

BFTV, I was wondering, is that the last 7 years (2007-2013) vs. the preceding 7 (2000 -2006)? Or earlier years? And I suppose it is weekly loss over the 4 calendar weeks of June (rather than max or something)? Thanks.

Hi lurker,

It's the first 7 years of the record (1979-1985 vs 2007 to 2013), though perhaps I should have expanded that to the first and last 8 years, now that we have all of June's data. I can post up the 2000-2006 vs 2007-2013 if you like? (or maybe 1999-2006 vs 2007-2014?)
The 7 day loss is just the rolling 7 days, so there's 30 separate 7 day losses in June, stating from May 26th- June 1st, finishing June 24th to June 30th.

June and July show the biggest departures from the long term, with August moving back closer to earlier years, presumably as the thin, weak ice has mostly melted at that stage.
I would certainly like to see the 8-year version (either one). Thanks!!

Here you go
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #664 on: July 06, 2014, 10:05:32 PM »
CT fell another 75K compared to the value given above.

That is the last CT update, Wipneus is 2 days ahead of that. (the clue is 'next tuesday')


I was reacting to Jim Pettit, who still had the July 4 value then and now also shows the July 5 value.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

jdallen

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #665 on: July 06, 2014, 10:20:28 PM »
Numbers in context.  (forgive formatting in advance).

I decided to tinker a little bit with IJIS numbers a bit to put current conditions in context with previous years.  I grabbed the IJIS numbers and computed loss numbers based on the total annual loss for the year or average in question.  Rather than use dates from max/min, I arbitrarily chose 4/15 and 9/15 as the end dates for the numbers.

The columns are respectively are:
1) Total loss extent for the year/average
2) Total loss in extent from 4/15 to 9/15 for the year/average
3) Average drop in extent per day between those dates for the year/average
4) Average loss required from the current date to equal the total loss for that year
5) What the 9/15 2014 extent would be with that loss
6) The total loss required from the current date for 2014 to equal the 9/15 year/average extent
7) The average loss per day for 2014 to equal the 9/15 year/average extent


9/15 Extent
Total loss,
4/15 - 9/15

Avg Drop/Day,
4/15-9/15

Avg daily loss
required for 2014
to equal total loss

2014 Extent
at equal loss

2014 Loss Required
to meet 9/15

2014 Avg daily loss
Required to meet 9/15

1980s Average
7269483
7468088
48811
19134
6980328
1377711
19134
1990's Average
6573762
7612899
49758
28797
6835517
2073432
28797
2000's Average
5479091
8241593
53867
44001
6206823
3168103
44001
2007
4068688
9165988
59908
63590
5282428
4578506
63590
2011
4442510
9162245
59844
58398
5286171
4204684
58398
2012
3178400
10872130
71060
75955
3576286
5468794
75955
2013
4834931
8809750
57580
52948
5638666
3812263
52948

Max 2014 Extent           14448416
Current 2014 Extent        8647194
Days until 9/15                        72
Numbers in square kilometers
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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #666 on: July 07, 2014, 12:12:52 PM »
I was reacting to Jim Pettit, who still had the July 4 value then and now also shows the July 5 value.

At the time I'd posted, the 05 July CT SIA numbers hadn't yet been posted. Look at the top of the comment for the date.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #667 on: July 07, 2014, 12:15:25 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,647,194 km2 (05 July)
Down 5,801,222 km2 (40.15%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,469,739 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 51,784 km2 from previous day.
Down 711,398 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -101,628 km2).
Down 410,363 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -82,073 km2).
871,034 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
9,699 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
253,963 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
83,714 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest July to-date average.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.88% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.49%) have recorded the second lowest.
49 days (26.2%) have recorded the third lowest.
74 days in total (39.57%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
6,996,583 km2 (06 July [Day 0.5096])
Down 6,490,755 km2 (48.12%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
4,762,573 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 58,441 km2 from previous day.
Down 638,002 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -91,143 km2).
Down 542,896 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -90,483 km2).
211,022 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
412,302 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
130,014 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
832,377 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Sixth lowest July to-date average.
Seventh lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.42% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.23%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (9.09%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (26.74%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2014, 03:44:40 PM by Jim Pettit »

DavidR

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #668 on: July 07, 2014, 02:27:04 PM »
This histogram shows the distribution of sea ice extent for the various thicknesses  of ice reported in the April PIOMAS data. 



Since then we have effectively lost all the extent up to 1.4 m. 
It  is easy  to  see that  the extent at  low values this year was significantly less than 2012. Over the next  month we should lose all the extent out to  1.9.
That's an awful lot  more extent than we lost  in late July  in 2012.  And after that  August  is nearly  as bad. We can expect  to  see almost 2 M more Km^2 of extent  lost in the last  weeks of July than in 2012.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #669 on: July 07, 2014, 04:28:04 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Wednesday of about -122k.

Most of this area decline is in the CAB: -72k. About time it did something like that. Also Laptev shows a substantial decline, and outside the basin Greenlands Sea went -28k down.

In contrast he extent in the CAB did about nothing. Laptev and the Greenland Sea are the biggest decliners, while Barents has a bit of a rebound.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-06 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4411.8   -1.3   -28.8    925.4   +3.2   +19.3    387.9  -27.0  -280.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   716.6   -8.1   -36.2    125.3  +22.4  -153.9    387.6  -23.3  -139.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   222.1   +1.2  -330.0      0.0   +0.0    +0.3    392.4   -8.6  -266.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   654.0   +6.4   -45.2    352.8   -5.0   -83.3    352.4   -7.5   -57.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.6   +0.0    +4.3     36.1  +14.4   +39.8    137.8  -28.0    +2.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    14.6   +0.5   +14.8   8982.6  -32.9 -1342.8

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4049.2  -71.5  +166.1    708.3   +5.4   +32.9    184.8  -39.6  -288.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   385.8   +5.9  -111.3     50.7   +7.3   -97.4    185.2  -27.7   -85.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    80.3   -3.5  -226.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.1    185.5   +7.7  -159.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   522.2   -9.1   +13.8    209.9   -0.9  -101.9    219.5   -0.6   -70.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.6   -0.0    +1.7     16.9   +9.0   +18.3     85.5   -6.4   +22.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     3.6   -0.6    +3.7   6803.6 -118.3  -903.6

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #670 on: July 07, 2014, 05:10:15 PM »
6.997 - 0.148 - 0.122 = 6.727

which then compares with

2012.5150  -1.6159728   6.0385265
2010.5150  -1.6018537   6.1491585
2007.5150  -1.5656465   6.1853657
2011.5150  -1.5219997   6.2290125
2006.5150  -1.0376657   6.7133465
2014
2008.5150  -0.9103215   6.7441778
2013.5150  -0.9761871   6.7748251


so 6th place again but order has changed. 688k above 2012.

(order was 12 7 10 11 13 14
now           12 10 7 11 6 14 )
2008 has a 210k drop so that year could get down into 5th lowest for today. Small margins make the difference between 5th and 8th lowest place.
 

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #671 on: July 08, 2014, 12:11:32 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,443,850 km2 (07 July)
Down 6,004,566 km2 (41.56%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,266,395 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 109,164 km2 from previous day.
Down 613,707 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -87,672 km2).
Down 613,707 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -87,672 km2).
911,372 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
29,044 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
256,710 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
72,786 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.85% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.45%) have recorded the second lowest.
50 days (26.6%) have recorded the third lowest.
75 days in total (39.89%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
6,860,137 km2 (07 July [Day 0.5123])
Down 6,627,200 km2 (49.14%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
4,626,128 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 136,446 km2 from previous day.
Down 679,341 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -97,049 km2).
Down 679,341 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -97,049 km2).
258,884 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
370,195 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
19,443 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
800,206 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Sixth lowest July to-date average.
Sixth lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.38% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.17%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (9.04%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (26.6%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2014, 02:47:26 PM by Jim Pettit »

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #672 on: July 08, 2014, 04:11:27 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Thursday of about -48k.

Explanation of that is most: CAB dropped -54k. No other region changed significantly.

In extent the situation is quite different: Greenland, Laptev and Barents Seas decline, extent in Kara increased.

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-07 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4410.5   -1.3   -29.8    927.3   +1.9   +23.9    363.4  -24.6  -302.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   744.6  +28.0    +1.9    107.6  -17.7  -163.9    361.4  -26.1  -158.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   210.3  -11.7  -329.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.3    390.1   -2.3  -244.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   652.8   -1.2   -45.0    349.7   -3.1   -83.4    355.5   +3.1   -49.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.6   +0.0    +4.3     22.4  -13.7   +26.1    157.0  +19.1   +22.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    17.5   +2.9   +17.8   8916.7  -65.9 -1331.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3995.5  -53.7  +131.7    706.9   -1.4   +37.9    177.5   -7.3  -290.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   394.2   +8.3   -90.5     46.4   -4.3   -96.2    182.5   -2.7   -82.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    79.5   -0.8  -216.5      0.0   +0.0    +0.1    183.6   -1.9  -143.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   522.4   +0.2   +14.9    210.3   +0.4   -98.6    229.2   +9.7   -55.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.6   +0.0    +1.7      8.2   -8.6    +9.6     94.6   +9.1   +32.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     4.0   +0.4    +4.1   6741.7  -61.8  -872.5

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #673 on: July 08, 2014, 04:22:44 PM »
6.860 - 0.122 -0.048 = 6.69

which then compares with

2012.5178  -1.5899866   5.9758739
2010.5178  -1.5723670   6.0821323
2007.5178  -1.5361049   6.1183944
2011.5178  -1.5080416   6.1464577
2008.5178  -1.0313318   6.5345287
2013.5178  -0.9965217   6.6579776
2014
2006.5178  -0.9472530   6.7072463

so down 1 place to 7th lowest. 714k above 2012.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #674 on: July 09, 2014, 04:12:57 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,344,111 km2 (08 July)
Down 6,104,305 km2 (42.25%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,166,656 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 99,739 km2 from previous day.
Down 592,736 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -84,677 km2).
Down 713,446 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -89,181 km2).
930,183 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
21,149 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
218,376 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
84,344 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.82% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.41%) have recorded the second lowest.
51 days (26.98%) have recorded the third lowest.
76 days in total (40.21%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
6,730,848 km2 (08 July [Day 0.515])
Down 6,756,489 km2 (50.1%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
4,496,838 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 129,289 km2 from previous day.
Down 668,438 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -95,491 km2).
Down 808,631 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -101,079 km2).
292,799 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
346,374 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
43,977 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
692,321 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Sixth lowest July to-date average.
Sixth lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.35% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.11%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (8.99%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (26.46%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2014, 06:47:54 PM by Jim Pettit »

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #675 on: July 09, 2014, 05:34:32 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Friday of about -81k.

The ice in the Kara Sea contributed most (-29k), yet on the other hand the CAB could not continue and increased by +17k.

Regarding extent, the indecrement in Kara is simply huge and with the help of the non Arctic basin regions Baffin, Hudson and Greenland Sea the total extent drop is a big -160k.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-08 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4399.3  -11.1   -40.6    919.8   -7.5   +19.3    362.3   -1.1  -299.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   703.5  -41.1   -28.3    105.7   -1.9  -159.0    324.1  -37.3  -189.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   181.7  -28.7  -345.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.1    376.5  -13.6  -233.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   644.6   -8.2   -51.5    342.1   -7.6   -88.3    353.6   -1.9   -46.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.0   -0.6    +2.5     23.5   +1.1   +25.2    157.3   +0.3   +23.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    16.9   -0.6   +17.0   8756.5 -160.2 -1417.9

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4012.3  +16.8  +167.7    703.8   -3.1   +40.9    173.4   -4.1  -288.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   365.5  -28.6  -105.9     44.3   -2.1   -93.2    168.6  -13.9   -90.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    70.7   -8.8  -214.6      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    170.2  -13.3  -139.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   529.8   +7.4   +23.7    199.8  -10.4  -106.2    216.5  -12.7   -62.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   -0.4    +1.0      8.2   -0.0    +8.8     89.8   -4.8   +28.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     3.8   -0.3    +3.8   6667.9  -73.8  -854.7
« Last Edit: July 09, 2014, 07:11:25 PM by Wipneus »

AmbiValent

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #676 on: July 09, 2014, 06:46:47 PM »
Regarding extent, the increment in Kara is simply huge and with the help of the non Arctic basin regions Baffin, Hudson and Greenland Sea the total extent drop is a big -160k.
Okay, last time my comment was pretty useless :-[ , but I think it should be "decrease" or "decrement" in Kara in that sentence.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #677 on: July 09, 2014, 07:12:17 PM »
Regarding extent, the increment in Kara is simply huge and with the help of the non Arctic basin regions Baffin, Hudson and Greenland Sea the total extent drop is a big -160k.
Okay, last time my comment was pretty useless :-[ , but I think it should be "decrease" or "decrement" in Kara in that sentence.

Thanks, corrected.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #678 on: July 10, 2014, 01:59:21 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,236,429 km2 (09 July)
Down 6,211,987 km2 (42.99%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,058,974 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 107,682 km2 from previous day.
Down 629,631 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -89,947 km2).
Down 821,128 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -91,236 km2).
953,924 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
11,679 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
207,968 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
126,482 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.79% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.37%) have recorded the second lowest.
52 days (27.37%) have recorded the third lowest.
77 days (40.53%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #679 on: July 10, 2014, 04:36:36 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Saturday of about -50k.

Most of that can be attributed to Kara, CAB, Laptev and ESS.

The extent situation we have a small net total but some regional extremes. Greenland Sea increased by some +52k, while Laptev declined -32k. Chukchi also did score a big -28k.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-09 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4396.1   -3.2   -43.5    908.3  -11.4   +11.2    330.8  -31.5  -327.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   695.9   -7.6   -24.5    122.3  +16.6  -135.2    375.8  +51.7  -130.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   163.7  -17.9  -350.9      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    398.6  +22.1  -187.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   647.8   +3.2   -46.7    327.7  -14.4   -99.8    326.1  -27.5   -68.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.2   -1.8    +0.2     26.7   +3.2   +27.4    166.1   +8.9   +33.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    21.0   +4.1   +21.0   8742.1  -14.5 -1354.5

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3997.2  -15.1  +170.5    692.3  -11.4   +36.1    159.1  -14.3  -296.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   346.1  -19.4  -113.1     51.8   +7.5   -80.4    164.0   -4.6   -89.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    65.3   -5.4  -209.3      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    176.3   +6.0  -116.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   528.4   -1.4   +24.1    206.4   +6.6   -96.3    212.0   -4.5   -60.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.9   -0.3    +0.5     10.0   +1.8   +10.2     88.9   -1.0   +28.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     5.0   +1.3    +5.0   6614.8  -53.2  -816.4

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #680 on: July 10, 2014, 05:18:59 PM »
6.682 - 0.081 -0.05 = 6.551

which then compares with
2012.5233  -1.6487776   5.7292461
2007.5233  -1.5787673   5.8928747
2010.5233  -1.4704309   6.0012112
2011.5233  -1.4404259   6.0312161
2008.5233  -1.0446807   6.3333430
2013.5233  -1.0729790   6.3986630
2006.5233  -1.0486231   6.4230189
2014
2005.5233  -0.8729010   6.5987411
2009.5233  -0.8703414   6.6013007

so down another place to 8th lowest. Much nearer to 9th & 10th places than 7th. 822k above 2012.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #681 on: July 11, 2014, 01:41:42 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,135,962 km2 (10 July)
Down 6,312,454 km2 (43.69%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
4,958,507 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 100,467 km2 from previous day.
Down 641,844 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -91,692 km2).
Down 921,595 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -92,160 km2).
971,813 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
3,934 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
163,647 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
159,390 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.76% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.33%) have recorded the second lowest.
53 days (27.75%) have recorded the third lowest.
78 days (40.84%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
6,591,972 km2 (10 July [Day 0.5205])
Down 6,895,365 km2 (51.12%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
4,357,963 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 89,760 km2 from previous day.
Down 607,677 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -86,811 km2).
Down 947,506 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -94,751 km2).
245,778 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
362,549 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
69,831 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
676,395 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Sixth lowest July to-date average.
Eighth lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.28% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (10.99%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (8.9%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (26.18%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2014, 03:42:01 PM by Jim Pettit »

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #682 on: July 11, 2014, 04:23:35 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Sunday of about -88k.

That could have been a century, but CT includes lake ice and there grew a lot of it today. Most regions contribute, with Laptev, CAB, Hudson and Greenland Sea most.

Extent in the Laptev had a huge drop of -63k, most other regions except CAA, Beaufort and Chukchi had significant declines.  The big bump of lake ice extent is fortunately not included in the NSIDC extent.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-10 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4385.0  -11.1   -54.3    882.1  -26.3   -11.6    268.3  -62.5  -385.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   670.8  -25.1   -37.4    102.4  -19.9  -147.6    349.5  -26.3  -149.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   181.3  +17.6  -320.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    376.3  -22.3  -185.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   645.9   -1.9   -46.9    323.3   -4.4  -101.2    324.9   -1.2   -65.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.6   +2.4    +2.6     29.5   +2.8   +30.1    214.0  +47.9   +82.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    42.4  +21.5   +42.5   8585.2 -156.9 -1429.8

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3977.3  -19.9  +168.0    680.6  -11.7   +31.4    138.4  -20.7  -309.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   338.0   -8.0  -109.3     43.9   -8.0   -82.8    147.7  -16.2  -101.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    71.9   +6.6  -192.1      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    159.2  -17.1  -117.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   514.9  -13.5   +12.4    207.1   +0.7   -91.9    205.7   -6.3   -61.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.4   +0.5    +1.0     11.0   +1.0   +11.2    100.9  +12.1   +41.4
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    13.8   +8.8   +13.8   6510.9 -103.9  -828.0

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #683 on: July 11, 2014, 05:01:20 PM »
6.592 - 0.05 -0.088 = 6.454

which then compares with
2012.5260  -1.6849439   5.5981722
2007.5260  -1.4938470   5.8841767
2011.5260  -1.3932401   5.9847837
2010.5260  -1.3327643   6.0452595
2008.5260  -1.0634849   6.2196312
2013.5260  -1.1273619   6.2506619
2006.5260  -1.0817691   6.2962546
2009.5260  -0.9381143   6.4399095
2005.5260  -0.9270923   6.4509316
2014

so down another two places to 10th lowest. 856k above 2012.

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #684 on: July 11, 2014, 05:01:39 PM »
NSIDC reports a daily extent drop of 156k km2 on July 10th. Drop of 15k km2 on the 9th. The average daily loss for the last week (July 3rd to July 10th) was 90k km2.

2014 is virtually tied with 2007 for 3rd lowest on this day, and is now a nick lower than 2010, as expected. Unless 2014 keeps up and can accelerate, however, I think 2007 is going to start outpacing 2014 during the next week.

Looking forward, from July 10th to July 17th, 2007 average daily loss was 109k km2.
2008's was 100k km2
2009's was 88k km2
2010's was 71k km2
2011's was 115k km2
2012's was 93k km2
2013's was 119k km2

2013 being the fastest of this group during this period of mid-July, this is when it was really closing in on 2012. As we remember too well, it was by the end of that month when it slowed down dramatically. Thus emphasizing the importance of the entirety of the melt season, and not slacking just when the finish is in reach.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #685 on: July 11, 2014, 05:32:54 PM »
Here's an animation of the 850hPa temp anomalies for the 10th to 17th of July, from 2007 to 2013.



Looking at the ECM, it appears that we'll be closer to 2010 and 2012.

11th


13th


15th


17th
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #686 on: July 12, 2014, 03:28:00 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,040,838 km2 (11 July)
Down 6,407,578 km2 (44.35%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
4,863,383 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 95,124 km2 from previous day.
Down 658,140 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -94,020 km2).
Down 1,016,719 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -92,429 km2).
983,637 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
3,209 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
155,331 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
174,839 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Third lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.73% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.29%) have recorded the second lowest.
54 days (28.13%) have recorded the third lowest.
79 days (41.15%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
6,548,438 km2 (11 July [Day 0.5233])
Down 6,938,900 km2 (51.45%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
4,314,428 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 43,535 km2 from previous day.
Down 581,100 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -83,014 km2).
Down 991,041 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -90,095 km2).
201,612 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
406,683 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
149,775 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
819,192 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Sixth lowest July to-date average.
Eighth lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.25% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (10.94%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (8.85%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (26.04%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #687 on: July 12, 2014, 04:46:25 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Monday of about -114k.

Nearly half of that is in the ESS, the low that has moved there is showing its effect. Other area decliners are Beaufort and the CAB.

In regional extent Hudson and Baffin combined score a century (down). In the Arctic basin Laptev does a really big increase, while Kara, ESS and Beaufort have good declines. A very varied picture altogether.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-11 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4386.9   +2.0   -52.0    863.1  -19.0   -27.0    308.4  +40.1  -340.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   649.3  -21.5   -46.0    104.4   +2.0  -138.3    362.5  +13.0  -128.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   152.9  -28.4  -336.4      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    295.7  -80.6  -242.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   643.4   -2.4   -47.5    306.2  -17.0  -115.2    312.4  -12.5   -73.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     5.4   +1.8    +4.2     30.1   +0.6   +30.5    189.7  -24.3   +58.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    28.6  -13.8   +28.6   8449.3 -135.9 -1483.1

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3962.4  -14.8  +170.4    626.1  -54.5   -16.1    143.1   +4.7  -297.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   345.8   +7.8   -89.8     40.9   -3.0   -80.3    163.9  +16.1   -80.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    62.6   -9.3  -190.7      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    142.6  -16.5  -117.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   515.3   +0.4   +14.9    188.3  -18.8  -106.8    193.5  -12.1   -67.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.7   +0.3    +1.3     11.0   +0.0   +11.1     94.9   -6.1   +36.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     9.5   -4.3    +9.6   6406.8 -104.0  -839.5

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #688 on: July 12, 2014, 04:51:16 PM »
Here is an image that goes with the numbers in the previous post. Note that lakes, but also the "ice" in the Baltic is not accounted in the NSIDC total.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #689 on: July 13, 2014, 01:22:25 PM »
IJIS Extent:
7,949,704 km2 (12 July)
Down 6,498,712 km2 (44.98%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
4,772,249 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 91,134 km2 from previous day.
Down 697,490 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -99,641 km2).
Down 1,107,853 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -92,321 km2).
993,855 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
14,580 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
114,585 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
176,649 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Third lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.7% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.25%) have recorded the second lowest.
55 days (28.5%) have recorded the third lowest.
80 days (41.45%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.



Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #690 on: July 13, 2014, 04:34:51 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Tuesday of about -177k.

Finally the CAB makes the expected jump (-44k) and joins with a huge drop in the ESS (-37k). Normally the big declines in Kara, CAA and Beaufort would have been mention worthy, but not today.

Total extent in contrast does not move at all (-4k). Regionally the declines are much smaller or, in case of the ESS, have an increase.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-12 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4383.0   -4.0   -55.6    882.7  +19.6    -3.3    299.3   -9.1  -343.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   632.8  -16.4   -49.2    100.9   -3.5  -134.5    359.8   -2.7  -123.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   159.6   +6.7  -316.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    313.0  +17.3  -200.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   645.9   +2.5   -43.2    289.2  -17.1  -129.2    322.3   +9.9   -59.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.8   -3.6    +0.5     27.1   -3.0   +27.2    154.4  -35.3   +24.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    27.5   -1.1   +27.5   8444.9   -4.4 -1403.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  3918.5  -44.0  +142.1    588.4  -37.7   -46.2    138.6   -4.4  -294.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   319.8  -26.0  -104.5     40.6   -0.3   -75.1    173.1   +9.2   -66.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    64.0   +1.4  -178.8      0.0   +0.0    +0.0    135.2   -7.4  -109.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   491.2  -24.1    -6.6    170.3  -18.0  -120.6    186.3   -7.2   -68.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     0.7   -1.0    +0.3      9.4   -1.6    +9.5     83.1  -11.8   +24.8
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     6.5   -3.1    +6.5   6242.7 -164.1  -912.2

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #691 on: July 13, 2014, 04:36:02 PM »
Perhaps a map highlighting the extent changes may enlighten.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #692 on: July 13, 2014, 05:46:02 PM »
Update for the week to July 12th

The current 5 day mean is on 8,595,610km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,445,040km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,411,770km2, an increase from -1,344,840km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +280,760km2, a change from +112,960km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.
The average daily change over the last 7 days was -87.2k/day, compared to the long term average of -77.7k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -111.2k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -87.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -104.4k/day.

The loss so far this July is the 8th largest on record. To achieve an average July loss, a drop of 73.4k/day is required, with the largest loss requiring -118k/day and the smallest requiring -38.9k/day.



I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #693 on: July 13, 2014, 06:10:49 PM »
CT area with Wipneus' updates:
6.458 - 0.114 - 0.177 = 6.167

which then compares with
2012.5315  -1.8452662   5.2500610
2007.5315  -1.5016865   5.6859941
2011.5315  -1.4579872   5.7296934
2010.5315  -1.3885120   5.7991686
2013.5315  -1.1226677   6.0650129
2008.5315  -0.9434694   6.1518579
2014
2005.5315  -0.9063790   6.2813015
2006.5315  -0.9061831   6.2814975
2009.5315  -0.8148182   6.3728623

up three places to 7th lowest and closer to 6th place than 8th. Continues to fall further behind 2012, now 917k above.
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greatdying2

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #694 on: July 14, 2014, 12:55:54 AM »
Total extent in contrast does not move at all (-4k). Regionally the declines are much smaller or, in case of the ESS, have an increase.
How on Earth does Hudson Bay go up?! Extent is a very strange measure...
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jdallen

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #695 on: July 14, 2014, 02:21:43 AM »
Total extent in contrast does not move at all (-4k). Regionally the declines are much smaller or, in case of the ESS, have an increase.
How on Earth does Hudson Bay go up?! Extent is a very strange measure...

Area can drop and concentration can decrease, while still leaving us with a net uptick in extent.  You just need to keep 15% ice coverage.  There may also have been import from the channels to the CAA, which still has pretty complete ice coverage.
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notjonathon

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #696 on: July 14, 2014, 10:26:57 AM »
Yes, that lack of extent loss looks like some of the compacted ice is spreading out. I would think that should lead to larger extent losses in the near future.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #697 on: July 14, 2014, 12:25:05 PM »
IJIS Extent:
7,899,861 km2 (13 July)
Down 6,548,555 km2 (45.32%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
4,722,406 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 49,843 km2 from previous day.
Down 653,153 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -93,308 km2).
Down 1,157,696 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -89,054 km2).
955,267 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
42,449 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
50,494 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
175,831 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Third lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (5.67% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.22%) have recorded the second lowest.
56 days (28.87%) have recorded the third lowest.
81 days (41.75%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
6,351,780 km2 (13 July [Day 0.5288])
Down 7,135,557 km2 (52.91%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
4,117,770 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 106,732 km2 from previous day.
Down 644,803 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -92,115 km2).
Down 1,187,698 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -91,361 km2).
236,570 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
416,810 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
132,257 km2 above 2013 value for this date.
993,527 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Eighth lowest July to-date average.
Eighth lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.19% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (10.82%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (8.76%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (25.77%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2014, 04:02:51 PM by Jim Pettit »

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #698 on: July 14, 2014, 04:29:33 PM »
NSIDC sea ice concentration data file for 20140713 contains no data I can use

Waiting for an update...

jdallen

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #699 on: July 14, 2014, 07:38:51 PM »
Would you say, some of the recent juxtaposing of numbers, with extent falling at half to two thirds the rate of area, would be indicative of melting in situ without compaction?
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