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ritter

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #50 on: February 18, 2014, 06:35:32 PM »
Does California still have a 33% Renewable's Goal by 2020?

Has the drought revived conversation of keeping 33% ?  increasing or decreasing it overtime?

Other than the 10% (maybe) supply of San Diego's needs from the Carlsbad Desalination is there other movement toward desalination by other municipalities - government entities?

Sorry for the delay, Jack.

Yes, CA still has a 33% renewable goal. We import a lot of hydro power from up north to work toward that goal. CA is nowhere near able to produce all of its own power, green or otherwise!

My knowledge of desal is limited, but I know that in times of drought, coastal communities start the cry for it. Then someone pencils the numbers, the environmentalists get involved and the plan dies. There are only a few in place that I know of. One near San Diego and one in Santa Barbara. I don't believe either are used since power costs are so high. I wish I had more time to research this further, but don't. Too many other interests!

Theta

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #51 on: February 18, 2014, 09:46:14 PM »
With the recent weather disasters like the floods in the UK alongwith the deep freeze in America and the drought in ca. I think are ability to produce food will either be severely limited or it will flat line as s it appears to be a case of everything going wrong everywhere. Put that with the loss of sea ice this summer, rapid collapse is a guarantee, the timescale of it is unknown.
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JimD

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #52 on: February 22, 2014, 05:42:38 PM »
The Math That Predicted the Revolutions Sweeping the Globe Right Now

Interesting article on using a math algorithm to predict social unrest.  These folks have been around awhile and have a bit of a track record (see other links). I think they oversell their results a bit, for instance I don't think the unrest in Ukraine can in any way be linked to food prices, but there is certainly some validity here and the process has valuable input into figuring out "crash" triggers in various places.  The Arab Spring is definitely an argument for their approach to some extent.

Quote
Just over a year ago, complex systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute warned us that if food prices continued to climb, so too would the likelihood that there would be riots across the globe. Sure enough, we're seeing them now. The paper's author, Yaneer Bar-Yam, charted the rise in the FAO food price index—a measure the UN uses to map the cost of food over time—and found that whenever it rose above 210, riots broke out worldwide. It happened in 2008 after the economic collapse, and again in 2011, when a Tunisian street vendor who could no longer feed his family set himself on fire in protest.

http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/a-complex-systems-model-predicted-the-revolutions-sweeping-the-globe-right

From Sep 2012

http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/we-are-now-one-year-and-counting-from-global-riots-complex-systems-theorists-say--2

From 2011

http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodcrises.html
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ccgwebmaster

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #53 on: February 22, 2014, 06:34:59 PM »
From 2011

http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodcrises.html

I think it's still rather telling that multiple regions are experiencing unrest without very high food prices. I suspect economic (and political by implication) factors are playing a strong part - but it bodes poorly for global prospects when food prices go back up again, once the next unlucky dice roll hits our ever more pressured global harvest.

I'd still argue there's a lot of tension in certain southern european nations - and more than most people realise even in many of the rest (including the UK and US). It's just that the tensions haven't reached breaking strain yet. That last step can happen rather quickly - one just needs the initial trigger.

Of course unrest, even if widespread, is still a long way short of collapse. It's just another convenient metric to measure and anticipate the descent down with.

icebgone

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #54 on: February 22, 2014, 10:42:08 PM »
"The Crash" begins when global trading in oil based currency is interrupted by an oil catastrophe, natural or manmade .  Current unrest is centered in countries that have a possibility for creating an oil catastrophe from a certain point-of-view.  Just follow the oil currency trail.  Those with the most to maintain ( U.S. consumers with large retirement accounts) have the most to lose.  Oil consumption ( and the hyper-inflated currencies it supports) will eventually destroy the world as we know it.

JimD

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #55 on: February 23, 2014, 04:50:03 PM »
icebegone

A fair candidate for precipitating the crash. An argument from the Peak Oil viewpoint is always welcome.   You should expand on it a bunch so we can all dig into it a bit and see what we find inside. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

OldLeatherneck

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #56 on: February 23, 2014, 11:33:42 PM »
icebegone

A fair candidate for precipitating the crash. An argument from the Peak Oil viewpoint is always welcome.   You should expand on it a bunch so we can all dig into it a bit and see what we find inside.

Because of the "Fracking" Boom, the economic impact of Peak-Oil will probably not crash the global economy, in and of itself, for another 10 years at a minimum.  This of course does nothing to mitigate AGW in the near-term.  However, any disruption of energy supplies, due to social unrest or civil war, could force a collapse at a much sooner date. 

We live in perilous times!
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JimD

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #57 on: February 24, 2014, 05:45:23 PM »
I think it's still rather telling that multiple regions are experiencing unrest without very high food prices. I suspect economic (and political by implication) factors are playing a strong part - but it bodes poorly for global prospects when food prices go back up again, once the next unlucky dice roll hits our ever more pressured global harvest.

I'd still argue there's a lot of tension in certain southern european nations - and more than most people realise even in many of the rest (including the UK and US). It's just that the tensions haven't reached breaking strain yet. That last step can happen rather quickly - one just needs the initial trigger.

Of course unrest, even if widespread, is still a long way short of collapse. It's just another convenient metric to measure and anticipate the descent down with.

It is worth noting that Thailand is also undergoing upheaval in addition to Ukraine and Venezuela.  Photos of snipers in the streets supporting the anti-government protestors.  This being balanced by pro-government supports also arming.  Just another hole in the dike.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #58 on: March 02, 2014, 03:53:59 PM »
I mentioned this point in another topic in response to ccg but I thought I would repeat it here as it sort of belongs here.

The current ratcheting up in our Game of Thrones between the US/EU and Russia.  No matter what the eventual fallout in the Ukraine turns out to be (my guess is partition, 2nd guess is the new Ukrainian government becomes to former Ukrainian govt) the growing conflict between Russia and the US is tailor made to increase the power of the conservative right in the US.  Military budgets are now very unlikely to be cut and may well increase.  The US will push hard on the Europeans to follow suit as they will argue that Russia is a growing threat.  Energy costs to Europe will rise as Russia is a big supplier.  Trade will be affected and costs will rise.  Banking and finance will be impacted.  It goes on and on.  Proxy wars once again are more likely? 

The desire to crush Russia, even following the collapse of the USSR has never waned in the US.  They are the Godless Communists and there is nothing they could do which would result in the US trusting them in any way.  The goal here is to strip all their satellites (i.e. Ukraine) from them and isolate them until they have no power and can be dictated to.  The Ukrainian situation is perfect fodder for that ideal.  I am sure that we will be looking for some way to get the Georgians and Chechens to rise up and fight the Russians.  A lot of Al Queada fighters are out of Chechnya and what a nice time to encourage them to get to work.  And we could get back in synch with Saudi Arabia by letting them fully loose in Syria and to start funneling money to AL Queada to fire up the situation in Chechnya. Etc.

We bleed them, they bleed us. we all waste resources, we all waste time.   

Madness.

A long way of saying that these immediate events and national security requirements will take priority and AGW will have to wait.   Short term trumps long term every time. 

The above kind of activity moves collapse forward in time. Now, if we can get the Chinese economy to go into recession....a big El Nino comes along....  What could go wrong?
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ccgwebmaster

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #59 on: March 02, 2014, 05:13:33 PM »
The above kind of activity moves collapse forward in time. Now, if we can get the Chinese economy to go into recession....a big El Nino comes along....  What could go wrong?

Conflict (and my expectations thereof) are a significant part of why I think collapse is much nearer future than your beloved 2050 figure. Resources, population and consumption and climate change alone aren't enough to predict - you also need to toss human behaviour into the mix (and even if it was the only element in the mix I think it would still be valid to question how certain the odds of our species avoiding a third world war fought with weapons of mass destruction until then...).

Quite frankly it's that last one (human behaviour) that damns the numbers and means we don't (in my view) have a hope in hell of getting anywhere near 2050.

Just wait for China to start rattling it's sabre harder. America is making a big mistake poking the Russian bear as the Chinese tiger stirs. The British empire too fell due to the costs of fighting wars. Welcome to the club.

JimD

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #60 on: March 02, 2014, 08:02:53 PM »
The answer from my neighbors (who actually could not have this conversation - maybe Dick Cheney?) would be that "It's different this time.  We are exceptional!"   ;D

I certainly don't think we get much past 2050 under any circumstances.  If we try hard enough we probably could make it earlier.  We seem to be able to scrape by all the time.  But you get one of the Black Swans hitting right in the middle of one of our little crises we could certainly trigger an irreversible step down.

Best finish your boat.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« Reply #61 on: March 02, 2014, 08:23:38 PM »
It is worth pointing out that by a developed world standard Greece has already collapsed.

Quote
Year               Nominal Annual GDP ‘Growth
•2010                           -7.5%
•2011                           -8.9%
•2012                           -1.1%
•2013                           -14%
•2009-13                 -27.08%

The EY has not seen the last of this problem either.  Not to mention the rest of the basket cases like Spain, Italy....

Edit:  and I meant to include their new ward of the state... Ukraine.  20 billion here, 50 billion there.  Germany can afford it.

Edit 2:  I just can't believe these numbers.

Quote
Europeans must grasp a simple fact: Greece has been, and remains, a failed social economy. Rumours of its recovery are just that: ill-motivated rumours![iii]

Besides the wretched diagrams and data above, there are other facts on the Greek soil that corroborate the characterization of Greece as a failed nation-state. Here are some:
•There are 10 million Greeks living in Greece (and falling fast due to migration), ‘organised’ in around 2,8 million households that have a ‘relationship’ with the Tax Office. Of those 2,8 million households, 2,3 million have a debt to the Tax Office that they cannot service.
•1 million households cannot pay their electricity bill in full, forcing the electricity company to ‘extend and pretend’, thus ensuring that 1 million homes live in fear of darkness at night while the electricity company is insolvent.
•Of the 3 million people constituting Greece’s labour force, 1,3 million are jobless.
•Of the 1,3 million jobless only 10% receive unemployment benefits. The rest must fend for themselves.
•Of those who work in the private sector 500 thousand have not been paid for more than three months.
•Contractors who work for the public sector are paid up to 24 months after they provided the service and pre-paid sales tax to the Tax Office.
•Half of the businesses still in operation throughout the country are seriously in arrears vis-à-vis their (compulsory) contributions to their employees’ pension and social security fund.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/03/know-greeces-present-state-affairs-update.html
« Last Edit: March 02, 2014, 08:34:35 PM by JimD »
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein