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silkman

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #350 on: August 20, 2017, 01:24:55 PM »
The Shackleton has now negotiated its passage of the Bellot Strait and is well on its way down the Franklin towards ice free open water:

Killian

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #351 on: August 20, 2017, 06:58:11 PM »
A glimpse through the haze suggests a passage could open up along the shores of the Boothia Peninsula soon, should favourable winds prevail:

In what way is it not already open? What in the world is your criteria? There's blue water and mush the entire way along the southern part of the image. How is that not "open?" Seriously, what is your criteria?

Neven

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #352 on: August 20, 2017, 07:34:35 PM »
To me it's open when all the ice is gone on sea ice concentration maps, such as Uni Bremen's.

I wouldn't call this entirely open, let alone the central route (which to me signifies a truly open NWP), but it will be soon.
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ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #353 on: August 20, 2017, 07:38:21 PM »
Bagheera, Snow Dragon II and Salty kisses did their passage (2015 I think) with more ice then than is now in the passage. "Open" is a function of boat design details and the captain's judgement.

We now see that Bagheera and Snow Dragon II think they can handle 60% concentration.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #354 on: August 20, 2017, 08:41:32 PM »
To me it's open when all the ice is gone on sea ice concentration maps, such as Uni Bremen's.

I wouldn't call this entirely open, let alone the central route (which to me signifies a truly open NWP), but it will be soon.

Any chance we can find a more nuanced vocabulary?   How about "passable" and "open" as a first try?  The NWP is passable if an icebreaker can get through it, and open if some idiot can sail it without being killed by an overturning berg.

silkman

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #355 on: August 20, 2017, 09:12:38 PM »
Meanwhile Serenity has made its way to Nome and was caught on the Webcam there.

Nice day for a cruise!

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #356 on: August 20, 2017, 09:52:18 PM »
Seriously, what is your criteria?

Although the link now seems to be broken, the one used by the CIS. i.e. <= 3 < 6/10 concentration along the whole route. Here's their latest concentration map:

Edit - Diablo reminded me of my dodgy memory!
« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 11:05:14 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Killian

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #357 on: August 21, 2017, 01:49:05 AM »
To me it's open when all the ice is gone on sea ice concentration maps, such as Uni Bremen's.

I wouldn't call this entirely open, let alone the central route (which to me signifies a truly open NWP), but it will be soon.

Neven, I do not see how you justify open as only ice-free. There is no logical reason for this and makes the sense of the ice a bit ridiculous. By that metric, the Arctic ocean will likely never be ice-free in any of our lifetimes. What is functional reality is what matters, not some esoteric target. Can ships get through the ice without an icebreaker? Yup.

Then it's open.

I mean, if multiple ships make the trip each year, but we are here saying it is not open, we look silly. The metric for a NWP was never that you'd see no sea ice, it was a viable sea route. Ships sink in all waters of the world. Absolute safety is simply not a metric anyone uses.

I do, however, tend to think of the NWP as the Parry Channel... Still, if you get from A to B, well...

Adam Ash

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #358 on: August 21, 2017, 01:53:26 AM »
Meanwhile Serenity has made its way to Nome and was caught on the Webcam there.

Nice day for a cruise!

Nice!
Somewhat evocative of the waterfront at Marseilles!

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #359 on: August 21, 2017, 02:58:54 AM »
Here's the C3 expedition tonight in a zone labeled 2/10 ice by the CIS. Almost all of the rest of the NWP route is either 2/10 or 3/10 with a tiny patch with more ice. Looks open to me.

Neven

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #360 on: August 21, 2017, 05:43:15 AM »
Neven, I do not see how you justify open as only ice-free. There is no logical reason for this and makes the sense of the ice a bit ridiculous. By that metric, the Arctic ocean will likely never be ice-free in any of our lifetimes. What is functional reality is what matters, not some esoteric target. Can ships get through the ice without an icebreaker? Yup.

Of course there's a logical reason. You just hadn't thought of it.  ;)

How do I compare to the past this way? There aren't any true-colour images before 2011, and ships didn't try to make the NWP like they do every year now by adventurers. I'm sure researchers have other criteria because they have more data at their disposal (I believe there are some papers on the subject of an open NWP), but I stick with passive microwave data.

Anyway, I'm not some organisation that officially announces the NWP to be open or not.

If the point is that the southern routes of the NWP are open every year now, and the central route sometimes, well, that point was already made several years ago. And it's almost certainly because of AGW.
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Adam Ash

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #361 on: August 21, 2017, 06:44:25 AM »
Perhaps a less ambiguous metric may simply be the number of vessels which have traversed the passage between one Arctic ice maximum extent and the next.  Sub-categories could be a) Ice breakers and ice hardened vessels b) non-ice hardened vessels >= 100 GRT and c) small ships <100 GRT.

The trick, of course, is that as ice conditions enable more traffic, then numerous intermediate destinations will be utilised for trade and no doubt export of resources which can now be exploited.  This traffic may entail fewer all-the-way-through traverses, and more 'coastal' traffic between such origins/destinations.

Such metrics will give an activity-based value relating to the quality of the eastern and northwestern routes.

However a ship-count metric is not directly relevant or 'impressive' when it comes to trying to inform the great unwashed about the critically sad state of the Arctic ice.  For that a combination of images, charts and tables depicting views of ice conditions at annual intervals for key sites may be needed to ensure the message gets to the data and 'picture' receptors of the audience.

And before we expend too much energy on that work, we should ask "What difference will it make to the present downward vector?"

Adam Ash

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #362 on: August 21, 2017, 07:47:42 AM »
Bagheera, Snow Dragon II and Salty kisses did their passage (2015 I think) with more ice then than is now in the passage. "Open" is a function of boat design details and the captain's judgement.
We now see that Bagheera and Snow Dragon II think they can handle 60% concentration.
Interesting to compare current ice conditions with last year's near where these yachts are:
 
A lot more clear water on their route, tho they will be bumping into the edge soon.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #363 on: August 21, 2017, 10:27:24 AM »
There aren't any true-colour images before 2011

Worldview now goes back to 2009.

Quote
Anyway, I'm not some organisation that officially announces the NWP to be open or not.

Whereas the CIS is, and unlike us mere mortals they have RADARSAT-2 imagery to peruse. In this day and age we do have Sentinel 2A though:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#Aug-20

« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 11:19:52 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #364 on: August 21, 2017, 10:34:23 AM »
And occasionally we even get images beamed back from the NWP itself. This is from Ernest Shackleton on the morning of August 20th:

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Adam Ash

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #365 on: August 21, 2017, 11:26:00 AM »
That stuff looks like piles of sunken snow, rather than remnants of solid ice!? ? ! ??
(Tho I would have a couple of reefs in if sailing thru it in the old lugger!)

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #366 on: August 21, 2017, 11:27:56 AM »
Interesting to compare current ice conditions with last year's near where these yachts are:

There's a thread dedicated to that sort of thing:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2118
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diablobanquisa

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #367 on: August 21, 2017, 12:16:37 PM »
Seriously, what is your criteria?

Although the link now seems to be broken, the one used by the CIS. i.e. <= 3/10 concentration along the whole route. Here's their latest concentration map:

Hi Jim, If I remember correctly, the treshold used by CIS was: <= 6/10 concentration along the whole route.

With your own words:



The CIS definition of "navigable" is "a criteria of less than 60% ice cover over all sections of the Northwest Passage". See:

http://ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=765F63E4-1


(Anyway, even according to this criteria the southern route is still closed, due to a couple of orange strips at Larsen Sound. Although I think we will be able to declare open the southern route very soon)

Cheers




Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #368 on: August 21, 2017, 12:52:29 PM »
Hi Jim, If I remember correctly, the threshold used by CIS was: <= 6/10 concentration along the whole route.

As you can see, when I went to check the link to check my (admittedly ageing!) memory all I got was a 404 error.  I'll see if I can work out where it's moved to.
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ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #369 on: August 21, 2017, 06:34:23 PM »
The C3 expedition is now at the point where Peel Sound meets Larson Sound. No icebreaker needed.


Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #370 on: August 21, 2017, 07:10:31 PM »
Here's MASIE's view of the current state of play:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #371 on: August 21, 2017, 11:39:00 PM »
The CIS have started coverage of the Parry Channel. Here's the latest from Queen Maud:
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ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #372 on: August 22, 2017, 01:22:04 AM »
I just clicked through the C3 expedition archived images for this afternoon looking for ice in the CIS map in orange labeled K in Larson Sound. The most concentrated ice shows up around 14:30 Eastern time.

It clearly didn't slow them down much but the neat thing is a few very small sail boat photo bombed their "selfie". I don't think there are any communities nearby for these boats to be local. I wonder where they sailed from.

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #373 on: August 22, 2017, 01:33:50 PM »
That stuff looks like piles of sunken snow, rather than remnants of solid ice!? ? ! ??
(Tho I would have a couple of reefs in if sailing thru it in the old lugger!)

Looks are deceiving. That ice is a couple meters thick. You could maybe kayak through there -- until one of those chunks flips over and takes you out -- but a larger boat can't make it without bumping ice all the way, and could easily get stuck.

Adam Ash

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #374 on: August 22, 2017, 02:22:08 PM »
That stuff looks like piles of sunken snow, rather than remnants of solid ice!? ? ! ??
(Tho I would have a couple of reefs in if sailing thru it in the old lugger!)

Looks are deceiving. That ice is a couple meters thick. You could maybe kayak through there -- until one of those chunks flips over and takes you out -- but a larger boat can't make it without bumping ice all the way, and could easily get stuck.

Thanks.  So those small yachts in the photo above were choppered in then?

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #375 on: August 22, 2017, 04:07:53 PM »
So those small yachts in the photo above were choppered in then?

I think you'll find that numerobis was referring to a different image.
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numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #376 on: August 22, 2017, 10:29:14 PM »
Thanks Jim.

I find it odd how emotionally invested some people are in believing the NWP must be open right now. No matter how navigable 99% of the path is, if 1% is not navigable, the way is closed. But it's right on the cusp of being navigable -- what's the rush of declaring it?

silkman

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #377 on: August 23, 2017, 09:23:09 AM »
The Shackleton has just emerged from the NW Passage and is now in the Amundsen Gulf to the Southeast of Banks Island.

The air and sea temperatures are interesting. I'm not sure at what depth the sea temperature measurement is made at (others may know) but 7.6C seems to indicate a significant amount of heat in place after a long ice free summer.

"Oceanographic research ship Ernest Shackleton (UK/Norway)

Last reported at 2017-Aug-23 03:00 UTC. Time now 2017-Aug-23 06:52 UTC.
Position N 70°00' W 118°30'.

Wind from 140 at 18 knots
Barometer 1008.3 mb
Air temperature 9.3 ° C
Visibility: greater than 10.8 NM a
Dewpoint 9.3 ° C
Water temperature 7.6 ° C "

Phil.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #378 on: August 23, 2017, 09:31:53 PM »
C3 is now at Gjoa Havn

https://canadac3.ca/en/expedition/live-feed/

It was rather different in 1905 when Amundsen left the ice.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #379 on: August 24, 2017, 12:21:05 AM »
The latest dispatch from Queen Maud.

Meanwhile Crystal Serenity is racing towards the Amundsen Gulf!
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #380 on: August 24, 2017, 10:59:26 AM »
Jim H is not the only one with memory problems.  ;)

The two quotes shown below have triggered a memory, but only partially...

...
The trick, of course, is that as ice conditions enable more traffic, then numerous intermediate destinations will be utilised for trade and no doubt export of resources which can now be exploited.  This traffic may entail fewer all-the-way-through traverses, and more 'coastal' traffic between such origins/destinations.
...
However a ship-count metric is not directly relevant or 'impressive' when it comes to trying to inform the great unwashed about the critically sad state of the Arctic ice.
...

&

C3 is now at Gjoa Havn
...

On Jim's Great White Con blog sometime last year (I can't remember when) , one of the Flat Earth brigade made the claim that, as far back as 1929, no fewer than 3 ships from the Hudson Bay company had made the traverse in a single year.

It would have seemed an obvious thing to check with the HBC archives whether such a thing had indeed happened, but had somehow been kept secret from the rest of the world. However, as most here realise, genuine scepticism is in extremely short supply amongst self-styled climate change sceptics.

In response to my query, one of the HBC archivists very kindly - and quickly - came up with the answer. What had happened was that 3 ships did indeed overwinter around the Cambridge Bay/ Gjoa Havn region, but that was simply the limit point for their respective trading/supply routes.

Two of the ships (Fort James and Fort Macpherson) had started from different ends of the NWP in 1929, but each had made it no further than Gjoa Havn before overwintering and then reversing their course. The third ship (Baychimo) worked the Vancouver - Cambridge Bay route throughout the 1920's, and also happened to overwinter "near" the other two in 1929.

Yet another example of misinformation and deliberate twisting of the facts from the usual suspects.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2017, 11:53:32 AM by Bill Fothergill »

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #381 on: August 24, 2017, 11:11:24 AM »
Regarding the thickness of the ice shown in various photographs further up this thread, one should always try to remember that something in the order of 7/8ths is below the waterline.

The complex topography of the ice makes the determination of the freeboard:draught ratio something of a nightmare, as evinced in the following paper...

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008JC005074/full

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #382 on: August 24, 2017, 04:09:21 PM »
On August 22 the C3 ship went through a patch of somewhat dense ice. From the image archive it seemed to took them less than an hour. The ice didn't look all that thick in the images but they tweeted that they encountered 2 metre thick ice.

https://twitter.com/canada_c3/status/900057753435197441


numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #383 on: August 24, 2017, 06:42:42 PM »
The pictures don't do the thickness of the ice justice. In person you realize that there's a lot lurking below -- you can actually see it with your own eyes (rather than being forced to believe Bill Fothergill).

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #384 on: August 26, 2017, 08:44:17 PM »
Winds and record-breaking temperatures over the region have pushed that red region way back in the past couple days, so it's down to a few km of high-concentration ice:

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #385 on: August 27, 2017, 11:56:36 PM »
It looks as though the Northwest Passage can finally be declared "open" according to the CIS's criterion:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#Aug-27
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numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #386 on: August 28, 2017, 12:22:38 AM »
Wow. All that 90+% thick ice collapsed in just two days?

ghoti

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #387 on: August 28, 2017, 03:42:06 AM »
What is the coverage of that area by Radarsat? I'm pretty sure it isn't daily. The thick ice map might have been at least partly out of date when published. I think it has a 24 day repeat cycle.

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #388 on: August 28, 2017, 02:34:07 PM »
The full maps I put up have the legend, which provides the time of the radarsat observation. They also sometimes use other imagery.

A repeat of 24 days means you'll see the same place at the same time of day every 24 days. You'll see the same place much more often, especially at high latitude.

numerobis

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #389 on: August 28, 2017, 11:26:35 PM »
Today's image shows continued fast melting in Queen Maud, and the weather report (and news) says it's been very warm all weekend in the area.

Temperatures are back to seasonal today -- chance of flurries in Cambridge Bay and Taloyoak -- but warm again on Wednesday.

How far along is Crystal Serenity?

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #390 on: August 29, 2017, 12:21:50 AM »
How far along is Crystal Serenity?

Cambridge Bay:
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #391 on: August 29, 2017, 04:57:46 AM »

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #392 on: August 29, 2017, 11:41:49 AM »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #393 on: August 29, 2017, 12:30:38 PM »
Ice ahoy!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #394 on: August 29, 2017, 04:33:07 PM »
'Nuff said?

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #395 on: August 29, 2017, 06:46:03 PM »
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #396 on: August 30, 2017, 10:53:40 PM »
Crystal Serenity is now trailing in the wake of two icebreakers:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/crystal-serenity-sails-the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#Aug-30

Heading for the open water?
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 11:01:21 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #397 on: August 31, 2017, 01:48:34 PM »
Crystal Serenity is now trailing in the wake of two icebreakers:


Heading for the open water?

Looks like their journey has mainly been in open water, it looks like they're going to head through the Bellott Strait next, not much ice en route.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #398 on: August 31, 2017, 07:02:56 PM »
They might meet the Xue Long in a short while. The Snow Dragon will be the first Chinese vessel to go through the passage. Notable in itself for a great seafaring nation  but also as a test of viability of it as a future trade route.

http://www.atimes.com/article/chinese-icebreaker-enters-canadas-northwest-passage/

What they might think of a large luxury passenger vessel passing by in the other direction is open to conjecture.

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Re: Northwest Passage thread
« Reply #399 on: September 05, 2017, 06:22:12 AM »
No more cruises sheduled for the NW Passage by the Crystals for the next 2 years   .   .   .   !?
(Has Crystal Serenity got through this year's ice unscathed?)

http://www.crystalcruises.com/cruises
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 12:01:32 PM by FredBear »