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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #750 on: May 14, 2024, 03:22:06 PM »
Hansen reckons that this type of  mixing is over-represented in current models,  not under-represented. This is an underlying reason he is confident that his modelling is better and IPCC underestimates the level of  warming that will happen as aerosol pollution diminishes. I think it  might be relevant to Atlantic salinity calculations and differing opinions on AMOC stability too.

Continental shelf edges  generate  up/down currents. The Med has a high density of them so is a good place to go if you want to find surface organisms at depth. Its a bad place to go if you want to estimate global effects.

kassy

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Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #751 on: May 14, 2024, 11:23:15 PM »
Do you have any link for that? Not seen him discuss this part. If it would be important he would be wrong but i think that you are mixing up things. It´s completely unclear what this find means for climate.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #752 on: May 15, 2024, 03:42:42 PM »
Do you have any link for that? Not seen him discuss this part. If it would be important he would be wrong but i think that you are mixing up things. It´s completely unclear what this find means for climate.

Its a common theme of his modelling papers. There's not enough data to independently set ocean mixing parameters, aerosol parameters, and ECS. Consequently uncertainties in them are correlated. He makes this point frequently for ECS and aerosols, but brings in mixing as well when there's a more technically detailed discussion.
I haven't seen him make the link between overmixing in the CMIP ocean models, and their salinity bias in the Atlantic yet, thats my speculation. I might not have noticed it, I haven't gone back and reread them since the recent AMOC stability paper that showed a salinity bias was making the CMIP AMOC too stable. Overmixing would make concentrations too uniform but I've no idea whether this is a significant factor in their salinity bias or not. Its something I'm hoping to see discussed when the second part of Hansen's Pipeline paper gets published.

e.g from Hansen's last email where he gets a lot more technical than he usually does in them.
https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/Hopium.MarchEmail.2024.03.29.pdf
Quote
There were two reasons that the GCM modelers did not want to include the full aerosol
forcing in their models. First, many of the oceans in the GCMs tended to mix heat into the
deep ocean too effectively, which meant that the GCM needed a slightly exaggerated forcing
to match observed surface warming. Increased net forcing could be achieved with a smaller
(less negative) aerosol forcing

kassy

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Re: Carbon Cycle
« Reply #753 on: May 27, 2024, 07:27:24 PM »
Drought, soil desiccation cracking, and carbon dioxide emissions: an overlooked feedback loop exacerbating climate change


Soil stores 80 percent of carbon on earth, yet with increasing cycles of drought, that crucial reservoir is cracking and breaking down, releasing even more greenhouse gases creating an amplified feedback loop that could accelerate climate change.

The accuracy of climate models depends on many factors -- greenhouse gas emissions from industrial and transportation activity, farm animal "emissions," urban growth and loss of forests, and solar reflections off snow and ground cover. Natural phenomena like volcanic eruptions also contribute and are incorporated into models.

However, some other natural processes have been overlooked. Farshid Vahedifard, professor and Louis Berger Chair in civil and environmental engineering, points to an important one that lies directly beneath our feet and covers most of our planet above water.

In a study published in Environmental Research Letters, Vahedifard notes that soil stores 80 percent of carbon on Earth, and with increasing cycles and severity of droughts in several regions, that crucial reservoir is cracking and breaking down, releasing even more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In fact, it may be creating an amplified feedback loop that could accelerate climate change well beyond current predictions.

"This process has not been sufficiently evaluated in the existing literature or incorporated into models," said Vahedifard. "If we don't consider the interplay of drought, soil desiccation cracking, and CO2 emissions, that could result in significant inaccuracies when modeling and predicting climate change. There are other repercussions as well. Poorer soil health can lead to reduced photosynthesis and lower carbon dioxide uptake, and it can compromise the structural integrity of earthen dams that protect against floods."

...

But soil changes caused by drought could be as significant, if not more significant, than any of those factors. Drought, manifested by long periods of low soil moisture content and high temperature, leads to cracking in fine-grained soils, sometimes extending meters below the surface. The cracks result in more exposure to the air, increased microbial activity and breakdown of organic matter, released carbon dioxide, and loss of nutrients and ability to support plant growth, reducing carbon dioxide sequestering.

The deep cracks expose much older reserves of carbon that had previously been stable and protected. The permeation of air into the soil accelerates the release of not only carbon dioxide from organic matter but also other greenhouse gases like nitrous oxide.

Small animals like earthworms and millipedes that help turn the soil over are also affected by the reduced moisture and increased air exposure, being less able to play active roles in nutrient cycling and soil structure maintenance. That, in turn, increases the likelihood of soil cracking and aeration.

"The amplifying effect of soil carbon feedback loops and its interactions with other loops could carry us across tipping points and lead to even more severe and permanent shifts in climate," said Vahedifard.

more:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/03/240313135541.htm
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