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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #150 on: March 28, 2014, 03:19:41 PM »




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

ritter

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #151 on: March 28, 2014, 04:15:35 PM »
Friv--you're getting me all excited!  ;D

(sure wish the consequences weren't so dire....)

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #152 on: March 28, 2014, 06:18:32 PM »
I thought I'd take a look at some of the patterns that tend to result in anomalous melt periods during the summer. For today, I'm going to look at 3 main periods from early in the melt season. From the graphs below, a few large dips can be seen in 2004 (yellow) just before day 50 (early April) and in 2012 (purple) around day 60 (late April). One that is not on that chart is 1990, which saw a large drop around the same period as 2004.



1990 saw a drop of 737k from the 7th to the 14th of April. This was brought about by a powerful +ve NAO and associated low pressure around Svalbard (April NAO averaged +2 overall) and a strong ridge up across the Bering Strait region. The +ve NAO drove very strong, mild southerly winds into the Kara/Barents region, sending the ice northward, while the ridge over the Bering Strait brought temperature anomalies of +10C to parts, helping reduce ice in the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. That set up was quite extreme, and produced the biggest 7 day extent drop on record for the first half of April and until 2012, was the biggest 7 day extent loss for April or May on record.

SLP Anomaly


850hPa Temperature Anomaly


Concentration Change, Apr7 to Apr14



2004 saw a similar drop around the same time, losing 695k between the 5th and 12th of April.
The 2004 set up was much different to 1990, with high pressure extending from the Canadian Arctic, through the Arctic ocean and across the Kara sea. This brought mild southerlies up into both the Bering Strait region once more and into the Barents sea.
At the same time, a ridge of high pressure extending up toward southern Greenland, bring mild air into the Baffin sea. This brought large temperature anomalies and massive losses to all peripheral sea ice areas apart from Hudson Bay.

SLP Anomaly


850hPa Temperature Anomaly


Concentration Change from Apr5 to Apr12



Finally, 2012. Later in April than the previous two, 2012 saw an extent drop of 840k between April 24th and May 1st.
This loss came about due to a largely similar set up to 2004. There was a strong high pressure anomaly stretching up toward southern Greenland, carrying warm southerlies into the Baffin Sea. High pressure also extended across the Arctic and into the Kara/Laptev region, bring mild southerlies into the Barents sea. The difference lay in a ridge extending up over the Kamchatka Peninsula and into the Bering sea, which brought southerlies and positive temp anomalies south of the Bering Strait, especially in the Sea of Okhotsk
This represents the biggest 7 day melt on record this early in the season and isn't beaten until 2012 went on see the earliest mega melt week (>1m in 7 days) later in June

SLP Anomaly


850hPa Temp Anomaly


Concentration change from Apr24 to May1



I'll have a look at big events later in the melt season next week.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #153 on: March 28, 2014, 06:32:52 PM »
Very, very nice, BFTV!
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #154 on: March 28, 2014, 08:01:03 PM »
Compliments from me too. Good job, and thanks BFTV

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #155 on: March 28, 2014, 09:01:39 PM »
Ice mass balance buoy 2014B has now appeared on the map, in the Beaufort Sea. The thermistors are working, and it seems to be on fairly thin ice, but it's hard to be sure. Unfortunately there are no readings from the top and bottom sounders showing up.

This one does however reveal the new "Water Rad" and "Atmos Rad" readings too.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #156 on: March 28, 2014, 11:17:27 PM »
2014C seemed to spuriously claim 5 or 6 cm of ice bottom freezing, which resulted from an initial blip at the time of installation. It's really been 182-183 cm thick the whole time. What's wrong with 2014B? Just processing delays, or maybe the ice is breaking up and confusing the sensor/algorithm?

The other buoys seem to show minimal growth over the entire winter, confirming the result of PIOMAS. I'm anxious to see when March and April come out on PIOMAS, do we stand a chance at breaking the record from 2011 of lowest max volume (or at least coming close to it)?

If so, won't we have a better than 50% chance at setting a record low volume in September, since a volume drop the size of 2010 or 2012 would do the trick?

Hubert

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #157 on: March 28, 2014, 11:24:09 PM »
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-142.94,75.42,3000
Quite high temperatures are the Beaufort Sea. And yet the wind. The wind and temperature cause the formation of cracks in the ice. The ice in some places can be very thin.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #158 on: March 29, 2014, 01:42:13 AM »
It is just me or does it seem abnormally clear over the arctic region recently?


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #159 on: March 29, 2014, 04:51:51 AM »

Eurasian snow cover is already in peril and again more rounds of deep fetch Southerly winds.  In combination with the exponentially increasing solar insolation are on their way.


This doesn't do it justice because it will be above normal further South...


I'm seeing what you are seeing Friv.  I am pessimistic about this spring and what follows.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #160 on: March 29, 2014, 06:18:42 AM »

Eurasian snow cover is already in peril and again more rounds of deep fetch Southerly winds.  In combination with the exponentially increasing solar insolation are on their way.


This doesn't do it justice because it will be above normal further South...


I'm seeing what you are seeing Friv.  I am pessimistic about this spring and what follows.


Yes.  I wish we had reliable up to date snow cover over Eurasia.  While melting has slowed a bit today.


The top image is today's snow cover anomaly. 

The middle image is current snow cover.

The bottom image is snow cover climo for April 7th.

Obviously we are already well behind already and the pattern is showing a major torch into Central Russia the next few years. 









I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #161 on: March 29, 2014, 07:05:06 AM »
Here is the 00z GFS forecast we can see the SW. Southern, and Central areas of Russia get hit pretty hard with the warmth. 

Considering the blue image above is for April 7th.  wow. 

The NA snow cover will also be getting close to normal by that time as well.













I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #162 on: March 29, 2014, 02:12:39 PM »
Prompted by Friv's query about ice temperature elsewhere, this is what a buoy in the Beaufort was telling us last year. In this case IMB 2012H:
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icefest

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #163 on: March 30, 2014, 08:47:20 AM »
frivolousz21, you wanted up to date snow cover details.

I'm sure you already know about this, but for others:

You can download the TERRA/MODIS snow cover data pretty much live, but it doesn't see through clouds.

Here is one example of Alaska on the 25th of March.


The best way to do it though, would be to write a script that downloads the data and adds the last 7 days together, so as to decrease the effect of clouds covering the land.

This is my attempt,  23-29 March 2014.   Black is the absence of data and not the absence of snow.
Open other end.

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #164 on: March 30, 2014, 10:01:55 AM »
That wouldn't look bad on an art exhibition, icefest!

One commenter on the ASIB made similar compilations of Arctic sea ice, back in 2012. The series is called Peeking through the clouds.

I'm copying this one to the Arctic Image of the Day thread. Nicely done.
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Hubert

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #165 on: March 30, 2014, 11:47:42 AM »
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/

Is this map is at this link? I can not find the bookmark. Snow cover - two bookmarks, but the picture is incomplete snow.

icefest

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #166 on: March 30, 2014, 12:35:32 PM »
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/

Is this map is at this link? I can not find the bookmark. Snow cover - two bookmarks, but the picture is incomplete snow.

I'm not sure what you mean.

Yes, that is where I got the images from.

Image 1 is a direct screen print

Image 2:
I switched to N Polar view.
I turned on both TERRA and MODIS snow cover.
I used print screen to capture all seven days.
I loaded all of them into PS
I blended all layers (if you use lighten, you get rid of all the black)


PS: Neven, I'm flattered  :-[
Open other end.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #167 on: March 30, 2014, 12:41:48 PM »
This should be a quick link to the right place in Worldview: http://1.usa.gov/1hNGdti
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #168 on: March 30, 2014, 03:44:02 PM »
Here's some temperature profiles from one of the buoys in the Beaufort this year. IMB 2013G currently reports "No estimated ice bottom growth", having started late last August with "Ice Thickness: 260 cm".

Would anyone care to play "spot the difference" with last year's profiles for 2012H above?
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SATire

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #169 on: March 30, 2014, 07:30:29 PM »
Would anyone care to play "spot the difference" with last year's profiles for 2012H above?
March 30 temperature profile is warmer than May 1 last year but the ice has grown 0.5 m in the last 12 month? I am not sure if the latter is significant or just the result of different place/path/things that happend to the buoy... Maybe I spotted just the wrong thing?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #170 on: March 30, 2014, 08:04:51 PM »
2012H started out thinner than 2013G, but had reached a maximum thickness of 2.3 m by the beginning of June 2013. 2013G thinned a bit to start with, but is now back up to 2.6 m again. Maybe that's somewhere near equilibrium thickness for the Beaufort Sea these days? Thus far 2013F has attained 1.65 m in 2014, compared to 2.17 m for 2012H at the same date in 2013.

What really struck me was your other point, the temperatures! The melting season in the Beaufort is still a long way away at the moment, but this year's floes do indeed seem to be much warmer at the end of March than last year's batch.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #171 on: March 30, 2014, 09:09:01 PM »
2012H started out thinner than 2013G, but had reached a maximum thickness of 2.3 m by the beginning of June 2013. 2013G thinned a bit to start with, but is now back up to 2.6 m again. Maybe that's somewhere near equilibrium thickness for the Beaufort Sea these days? Thus far 2013F has attained 1.65 m in 2014, compared to 2.17 m for 2012H at the same date in 2013.

What really struck me was your other point, the temperatures! The melting season in the Beaufort is still a long way away at the moment, but this year's floes do indeed seem to be much warmer at the end of March than last year's batch.

Should be no surprise, considering the SAT anomalies since February 1st:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy%5B1%5D=&im%5B1%5D=&id%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&im%5B2%5D=&id%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&im%5B3%5D=&id%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&im%5B4%5D=&id%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&im%5B5%5D=&id%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&im%5B6%5D=&id%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&im%5B7%5D=&id%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&im%5B8%5D=&id%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&im%5B9%5D=&id%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&im%5B10%5D=&id%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&im%5B11%5D=&id%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&im%5B12%5D=&id%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&im%5B13%5D=&id%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&im%5B14%5D=&id%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&im%5B15%5D=&id%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&im%5B16%5D=&id%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&im%5B17%5D=&id%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&im%5B18%5D=&id%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&im%5B19%5D=&id%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&im%5B20%5D=&id%5B20%5D=&monr1=2&dayr1=1&monr2=3&dayr2=28&iyr%5B1%5D=2014&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&cint=2&lowr=-7&highr=7&istate=0&proj=Custom&xlat1=55&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

Compare to last year at the same time:


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy%5B1%5D=&im%5B1%5D=&id%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&im%5B2%5D=&id%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&im%5B3%5D=&id%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&im%5B4%5D=&id%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&im%5B5%5D=&id%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&im%5B6%5D=&id%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&im%5B7%5D=&id%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&im%5B8%5D=&id%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&im%5B9%5D=&id%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&im%5B10%5D=&id%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&im%5B11%5D=&id%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&im%5B12%5D=&id%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&im%5B13%5D=&id%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&im%5B14%5D=&id%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&im%5B15%5D=&id%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&im%5B16%5D=&id%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&im%5B17%5D=&id%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&im%5B18%5D=&id%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&im%5B19%5D=&id%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&im%5B20%5D=&id%5B20%5D=&monr1=2&dayr1=1&monr2=3&dayr2=28&iyr%5B1%5D=2013&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&cint=2&lowr=-7&highr=7&istate=0&proj=Custom&xlat1=55&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot


Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.


Hubert

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #172 on: March 30, 2014, 10:01:48 PM »
@icefest

I wanted to know - on which website are the maps of snow extent. Is it a site of World Viev NASA?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #173 on: March 30, 2014, 10:15:37 PM »

Even with the mid level PV forecast to consolidate over the arctic it's still projected to be way above normal.

On top of that temps are warming dramatically now.  It's probably to late to reverse the warmer ice.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Hubert

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #174 on: March 30, 2014, 11:01:20 PM »
Let us consider quickly disappearing snow in Siberia.
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/03/arctic-news-pierwszy-atak.html
Ice extent is low and the rapid melting of snow only accelerate the process of melting ice.

That's the map I mean. Only that the snow coverage is strangely incomplete.

crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #175 on: March 30, 2014, 11:52:57 PM »
Hubert,

earlier post by icefest said

You can download the TERRA/MODIS snow cover data pretty much live, but it doesn't see through clouds.

The best way to do it though, would be to write a script that downloads the data and adds the last 7 days together, so as to decrease the effect of clouds covering the land.

This is my attempt,  23-29 March 2014.   Black is the absence of data and not the absence of snow.


Hubert

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #176 on: March 31, 2014, 12:30:42 AM »
OK, thanks

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #177 on: March 31, 2014, 09:19:00 AM »
Not sure of the direct impact it will have on the cryosphere but Mr. El Nino is about to go ape ****.




This the warmest since 1979 at the least.  Even warmer than the sub surface build up to 1997.  Like it's pulling away from 1997 at this point that is how absurd it is so far.

Remains to be seen if it can become as established but the chances of a Super nino are becoming more and more favorable.


One thing is for sure.  Watts and Co are about to watch the global temp anomaly get decimated.

Why, this boy may well be the killer which will be responsible for practically complete summer melt of Arctic ice by the year 2016, thus making predictions of Wieslaw Maslowski and Peter Wadhams to be 100% correct.

Previous time we had a strong El-nino - which was in 2010, - it did lots of erratic weather, including unprecedented (to this day!) drought in Russia (reducing national crop harvest massively; we lost nearly 40% of wheat harvest, the main crop of the country, and had to ban its export completely - which certainly resulted in higher prices for food in general around the world, and, some say, high food prices - was one of main true causes of so-called "arab spring"). But in terms of Arctic, the important thing is that 2 years after that El-nino, massive and sudden drop in Arctic ice cover happened (2012).

Somewhat similar thing happened after yet previous El-nino - in 2003, there also was massive, completely unprecedented, long-lasted drought (but this time, it was not in Russia, but in western and central Europe); and once again, few years later - not 2 years, but 4 years later in this case, - we had a massive drop in Arctic summer ice cover (2007).

Arctic melt accelerating during last decade in general, it may even be that Arctic "reaction" to presently developing El-nino will happen not in two years from now, but even faster - in 2015. Also, since the general trend is, so far, exponential melt, - 2014 may well be on par or even below 2012 in terms of minimal ice cover (in september), yet in terms of general trend it would still be a "cold" or "average" year (any year which does not break the record for minimum annual Arctic ice cover - is a "cold" year, nowadays; IMHO). An extremely warm year in Arctic - next "analogue" of 2007 and 2012, - will probably result in minimum ice cover below 1 million, and this developing El-nino seems to be a herald of this to happen (possibly in 2016)...



« Last Edit: March 31, 2014, 09:37:31 AM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

DoomInTheUK

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #178 on: March 31, 2014, 10:10:30 AM »
F.T,

Try to not read too much into the correlation of these two events. What in effect you are saying is that we have a frequently occuring event (El Nino) and have had some years that have had large melt seasons in the Arctic.

Yes this coming El Nino will have massive direct impacts around the globe but probably not on the Arctic. It will be the knock on effects that will filter through in the coming years but mixed in with general weather patterns it would be hard to directly identify the cause and effect chain.

There's no doubt that some of the extra heat released during the El Nino will go towards melting more ice, but then so will many others things in the next few years.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #179 on: March 31, 2014, 10:30:42 AM »
F.T,

Try to not read too much into the correlation of these two events. What in effect you are saying is that we have a frequently occuring event (El Nino) and have had some years that have had large melt seasons in the Arctic.

Yes this coming El Nino will have massive direct impacts around the globe but probably not on the Arctic. It will be the knock on effects that will filter through in the coming years but mixed in with general weather patterns it would be hard to directly identify the cause and effect chain.

There's no doubt that some of the extra heat released during the El Nino will go towards melting more ice, but then so will many others things in the next few years.

Concur, Doom.  My main concern is, we will lose the heat sink which has been sucking up heat since the last major 'nino. This means potentially more heat to set lose in a seriously weakened actic.

Regarding warmer ice... I'm not concerned so much about sensible heat... The extra heat in net probably translates into less than the energy required for 2CM of melt.  However, the heat does translate into reduce freezing at the bottom of the pack, in thicknesses measured in as much as a meter across broad stretches of the pack. *That* could mean 30-40% less insolation required to melt it out. If between now and Sept. 15th we average a loss of about 1.5 CM/day, we will be in desperate shape at the end of the season.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #180 on: March 31, 2014, 01:38:47 PM »
F.T,

Try to not read too much into the correlation of these two events. What in effect you are saying is that we have a frequently occuring event (El Nino) and have had some years that have had large melt seasons in the Arctic.

Yes this coming El Nino will have massive direct impacts around the globe but probably not on the Arctic. It will be the knock on effects that will filter through in the coming years but mixed in with general weather patterns it would be hard to directly identify the cause and effect chain.

There's no doubt that some of the extra heat released during the El Nino will go towards melting more ice, but then so will many others things in the next few years.

Wayne who posts here occasionally and works up in the archipelago is of the opinion that El Nino will have an effect in the Arctic.  See http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2014/02/circulation-game-changer-el-nino-looms.html for example.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #181 on: March 31, 2014, 03:25:40 PM »
Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.

These SAT anomalies are for January through March. The previous "warm winter" in the Beaufort was 2010/11, with 2011/12 not standing out. I guess there's a lot of weather to contend with between here and September?

It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like, but the ice seems to have got considerably thicker by the end of March 2011. Here's 2010E:

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #182 on: March 31, 2014, 03:27:13 PM »
Phil,

With such a global event it would be a miracle if it couldn't be detected in some way. My comment was based on the observation that previous El Nino's don't appear to have much of a direct influence.

One caveat though, the ice is thinner, warmer and in a worse state than ever so heaven knows what it'll do this year.

One thing is for sure, the El Nino will certainly add to what is building into a fascinating melt season.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #183 on: March 31, 2014, 04:15:28 PM »
Sure, i don't put "much" weight into my speculation above. Please note usage of words "may be", "probably", "seems to be" in my previous post.

Yet, there is more "behind" my speculation above. I'd explain. Please, dear reader, feel free to skip it if my bubbling doesn't interest you or you have no time for it.


See, we know that El-nino - is a massive change of heat distribution dynamics on Earth. And we know it takes significant time - months to years, - for enourmous masses of "unusually cold" or "unusually warm" water to travel around the globe (or to dissipate into "normal" - not unusually cold or warm - mass). In case of north pacific, there is that North pacific gyre (good pic of it - is  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:North_Pacific_Subtropical_Convergence_Zone.jpg ).

When i look at this picture, i see that distances involved are measured in tenths of thousands kilometers. Speeds involved are few kilometers per hour (for example, Kuroshio is said to be some 2.7 ... 3.6 kmh, and it's said that this is "fast" for a current of such a sort). Let's say average speed, then, would be 1.5 kph or so. Simple calculation for how much time unusually warm water (a result of an el-nino) would need to travel a significant portion of the gyre - would be something like this:

20000 / 1.5 / 24 / 365 = 1.52 years.

(20000 kilometers is "a significant portion of the gyre", 1.5 - is average gyre speed (purely guesswork by me).

Of course, there are different El-ninos, too. Some are "true" ones - happening mainly in eastern pacific; this means warmer water has to go nearly full circle around to reach those "Alaska" and "Bering" arrows on the picture. Relatively long time. But then there are "Modoki", too - an El-nino which is close to the central pacific, - this type could suuply warm water to high latitudes in less time, correspondedly.

Once some _part_ of "still unusually warm" water (on average, at least - and, to some degree, of course) "arrives" to places near Alaska and Bering, - it won't result in less ice cover right away, too. It takes time for ice to melt, for waters to mix (there are all sorts of "smaller side-circles" around any strong ocean current), and considering the scale, - it can't happen over-night nor even in one week, can it? The dissipation of all that extra heat will take months, possibly many months. Seasons don't wait for such processes, of course, - seasons come and go; but whatever time of the year it is, the extra heat from "last el-nino" - should still be felt. It'd slow glaciation in winter, and accelerate summer melt during summer.

Furthermore, as the Gyre transports "warmer than usual" waters closer to polar regions, - corresponding athmospheric events will also happen. More evaporation than usual, possibly stronger cyclones (on average for the duration of the effect), thus both more precipitation and also higher humidity and/or higher air temperatures, - and some part of such athmospheric events will certainly enter Arctic, i think. Stil, those events also take time to happen (may be less than "many months", but still some weeks at least, right?).

Granted, there are other factors in play, some are likely to be more potent, too. What i say is that El-nino will likely contribute in terms of summer ice melt (mainly directly or possibly via reducing winter ice growth - doesn't really matter) in some ~2 or so years from the peak of El-nino.

And since so far the strength of forming El-nino seems to be unprecedentally high - the "delayed effect" to Arctic (which is, again, is only my speculation) - might also be unprecedentally high. Especially since the balance seems to be going towards more melting even without El-nino.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #184 on: March 31, 2014, 05:17:14 PM »
FT,

That sounds like a  reasonable premise to me. My gut feeling is that the main influence will be on next freeze season which should start to kick in at the height of the El-Nino. This could leave the ice in an even worse state than the last 'warm-freeze' that we've just seen, setting 2015 up for a truely far reaching melt.

As I've come to learn with watching the Arctic, there's always something that springs up to confuse or amaze and you should always apply the caveat of "the weather".

The chips are certainly stacked against the ice, and they just keep building. I feel sorry for it really, it's like some poor kid being picked on in the playground. Everything that comes to the party seems intent on giving it a kicking.  :o

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #185 on: March 31, 2014, 05:36:00 PM »
Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.

These SAT anomalies are for January through March. The previous "warm winter" in the Beaufort was 2010/11, with 2011/12 not standing out. I guess there's a lot of weather to contend with between here and September?

It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like, but the ice seems to have got considerably thicker by the end of March 2011. ....

Without putting too fine a point on it, if we are talking about thicker ice in the Beaufort, most that originated elsewhere; in particular just north of the CAA.  I would assert Recent conditions in the Beaufort are not responsible for how thick it became, only how thick it is currently.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #186 on: April 01, 2014, 11:21:40 AM »
... My gut feeling is that the main influence will be on next freeze season which should start to kick in at the height of the El-Nino. This could leave the ice in an even worse state than the last 'warm-freeze' that we've just seen, setting 2015 up for a truely far reaching melt. ...
No, i don't think so - not in terms of this effect i am speculating about, at least. If the peak of this el-nino will be during next freeze season, then it means large mass of near-surface much-warmer-than-usual water will be present where El-nino is - i.e. quite near equator. It's quite far from Arctic, you see. Then el-nino itself will probably disappear (so far, it never lasts for many years straight, right?) - eastern and/or central pacific SSTs will return to "modern-day average". The north pacific gyre will "move away" waters with higher-than-usual SSTs, - 1st to the west, then to the north. It'll take some 8...20 months for those waters to arrive to high latitudes (near Alaska; again, i am not sure about speeds of all those currents, nor did i calculate distances precisely; though i know that part of the gyre which goes north - most of it at least, - is quite fast, being ~3 kph). If it's ~8 months or even less for the "trip", - then 2nd half of melt season in Arctic in 2015 can be affected. If it's longer - then freeze season 2015/2016 and/or melt season of 2016 may be most affected by this El-nino.

Once this warmer water (part of it - anyways) arrives to the north, - melt (or slow ice growth in winter) events would probably happen much faster than in the past, since Arctic itself is much more prone to melt nowadays.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #187 on: April 01, 2014, 06:07:04 PM »
While SIA on Cryosphere Today is essentially identical at this point to last year.....


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png


.......with the late peak this year in SIA, if we have average weather for the next 8 weeks, we will be heading to a new minimum this melt season.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #188 on: April 01, 2014, 06:07:15 PM »
Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.

These SAT anomalies are for January through March. The previous "warm winter" in the Beaufort was 2010/11, with 2011/12 not standing out. I guess there's a lot of weather to contend with between here and September?

It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like, but the ice seems to have got considerably thicker by the end of March 2011. Here's 2010E:



For the period from 2/1 to 3/28, it looks like we had ~40 cm of growth on 2012H due to 2013's cold snap. In 2011, there were only about ~25 cm of growth on 2010E, due to the warmth, with about a +4C anomaly over that period at the buoy's location in the Beaufort, a bit displaced from the largest temp anomalies in the Chukchi. This year, 2013F is near the epicenter of the positive temp anomalies and thus was over 5C above average. Ice grew only about 20 cm over the same period.


So I see no reason these growth differences can't be explained by surface air temperature alone.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #189 on: April 01, 2014, 06:27:34 PM »
While SIA on Cryosphere Today is essentially identical at this point to last year.....


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png


.......with the late peak this year in SIA, if we have average weather for the next 8 weeks, we will be heading to a new minimum this melt season.

I completely agree we may see a record minimum this year, or at least close to it. But your first sentence has me puzzled, for CT SIA for yesterday was 13.109 million km2, which is 393,000 km22 less than the same day last year (and 597,000 2 less than the same day in 2012). Or am I misinterpreting your comment?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #190 on: April 01, 2014, 06:30:47 PM »
Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.

These SAT anomalies are for January through March. The previous "warm winter" in the Beaufort was 2010/11, with 2011/12 not standing out. I guess there's a lot of weather to contend with between here and September?

It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like, but the ice seems to have got considerably thicker by the end of March 2011. Here's < snippage for brevity >

For the period from 2/1 to 3/28, it looks like we had ~40 cm of growth on 2012H due to 2013's cold snap. In 2011, there were only about ~25 cm of growth on 2010E, due to the warmth, with about a +4C anomaly over that period at the buoy's location in the Beaufort, a bit displaced from the largest temp anomalies in the Chukchi. This year, 2013F is near the epicenter of the positive temp anomalies and thus was over 5C above average. Ice grew only about 20 cm over the same period.


So I see no reason these growth differences can't be explained by surface air temperature alone.

Concur, Nightvid.  Ice growth requires heat flow -  out of the water, through the existing ice and out of the atmosphere.  The higher atmospheric temps this season have presented a huge barrier to that.  Warmer ice in *particular*, as that is far less volatile than air temps, and more consistently reflects the persistent anomalies over time.  Lower gradient of temp in the ice will directly result in less thickening.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #191 on: April 01, 2014, 06:46:00 PM »
This is an interesting page with animations of atmospheric currents into the arctic.  Under observation it looks like the polar vortex is under attack by mid-latitude heat and water vapor coming in as a result of blocking systems from all sides.

http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php

This process is surely causative for the increased winter temperatures but may be a negative for the summer temps, as it was last year.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #192 on: April 01, 2014, 06:57:52 PM »
This is an interesting page with animations of atmospheric currents into the arctic.  Under observation it looks like the polar vortex is under attack by mid-latitude heat and water vapor coming in as a result of blocking systems from all sides.

This process is surely causative for the increased winter temperatures but may be a negative for the summer temps, as it was last year.

Nice image.  It all ties back to the heat content of the ocean, and how the balance of transfer from all heat sources compares with that required to produce a phase change in in the pack.  The only hope we have for avoiding a new record is persistent cloudiness and little rain.  If enough heat is pumped in, we may have the first, but lose in the exchange to the other... Carrying heat to the ice from lower latitudes via precipitation.  An early departure of snow cover will not help us in this regard, I think.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #193 on: April 01, 2014, 07:29:39 PM »
While SIA on Cryosphere Today is essentially identical at this point to last year.....


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png


.......with the late peak this year in SIA, if we have average weather for the next 8 weeks, we will be heading to a new minimum this melt season.

I completely agree we may see a record minimum this year, or at least close to it. But your first sentence has me puzzled, for CT SIA for yesterday was 13.109 million km2, which is 393,000 km22 less than the same day last year (and 597,000 2 less than the same day in 2012). Or am I misinterpreting your comment?

You're right. I am embarrassed to admit I was simply looking at the graph. It appears that SIA last year took a rapid dip in the beginning of April.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #194 on: April 02, 2014, 01:10:10 PM »
Mr. El Nino is emerging.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #195 on: April 02, 2014, 04:23:43 PM »
I wouldn't call it "mister", though, considering this: https://translate.google.com/#es/en/el%20ni%C3%B1o . In fact, it bears mighty meaning - the temperatures we see now - is indeed sort of a child... Our, - mankind's, - child.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #196 on: April 02, 2014, 07:58:03 PM »
Jim,

Can you attribute some of the temperature differences (similarity) between 2012H temp profile (2013 May 1) and (2014 March 30th) to buoy location?


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #197 on: April 02, 2014, 09:53:32 PM »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #198 on: April 03, 2014, 09:21:26 AM »
Bering Sea - becoming less ice ...
... And quickly...
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #199 on: April 03, 2014, 09:51:21 AM »
March to the Fram. At an average speed of about 10km/day the ice North of Greenland is slowly moving to the exit.

Source: Nasa WoldView, alternate images from Aqua and Terra. Dates March 30 - April 2.

Edit: not sure why it does not animate after uploading. Testing some changes.
Fixed by cropping the images slightly.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2014, 10:02:22 AM by Wipneus »