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Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2200 on: July 15, 2014, 09:31:33 AM »
Quote
Appearances can be misleading
Why do you say that Jdallen ?

There is two laptev bite now...at the speed they are opening they will reach the pole before the end of August...
« Last Edit: July 15, 2014, 09:38:06 AM by Laurent »

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2201 on: July 15, 2014, 09:36:17 AM »
Why do you say that Jdallen ?

It's by way of illustrating that the apparent high concentration we see in some areas is not accurately reflecting the state of the ice, and its potential vulnerability.

I've been zooming around Worldview off and on for days now, tonight comparing it to the NSIDC concentration map:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.png

The "close up" view suggests a very different tale is possible, one which is much less favorable than raw numbers might indicate.  (for example, check the Kara region against the satellite imagery - there are bays which the NSIDC shows as fairly high concentration which are completely empty).
http://map2.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov/imagegen/index.php?TIME=2014194&extent=1238731.7478681,600704,2330315.7478681,1319552&epsg=3413&layers=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,arctic_coastlines_3413&format=image/jpeg&width=2132&height=1404

Will it translate into sudden massive drops?  I don't know.  I'm still trying to decide what it means.
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Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2202 on: July 15, 2014, 09:55:13 AM »
That is why what we are doing on this thread is highly important, the instruments are mainly fooled by clouds.
I noticed a place that should be compacted but is not...

Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2203 on: July 15, 2014, 10:01:52 AM »
That's amazing the speed at wich it is opening...it is not completely anormal but on a "normal" year the ice would come back to the shore and stick to it...let's see how it goes...

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2204 on: July 15, 2014, 10:12:00 AM »
Isnt that the big crack that Bruce has been pointing to since June? Amazing it survived all this time in that place, isnt it?

Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2205 on: July 15, 2014, 10:17:07 AM »
I am not sure of what you are talking about ? I don't think so that one is a new one it is along the canadian archipelago.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2206 on: July 15, 2014, 10:27:24 AM »
I am not sure of what you are talking about ? I don't think so that one is a new one it is along the canadian archipelago.

I think it's Bruce's crack, grown to adolescence, with a steadily increasing rubble zone along the main trend line.
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Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2207 on: July 15, 2014, 10:44:32 AM »
Quote
: Bruce  July 01, 2014, 00:15:08
 It was a little hard to see a lot of detail in the Big Crack today due to some thin cloud cover, but it appears that the system of cracks has made its way about half way across the top of Greenland. Another day of these conditions (and the drift forecast suggests we'll have another day of it, at least) and the crack will span all the way from the Beaufort to the Greenland Sea. Impressive.

Ok, I got it. That's the one expanding from Beaufort.

LRC1962

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2208 on: July 15, 2014, 01:26:59 PM »
That is why what we are doing on this thread is highly important, the instruments are mainly fooled by clouds.
If we get no 'melt' factors such as wind warm currents or warm air from now to minimum, the ice maps may turn out right. I go back to my old song of the season and I think it will be about how much damage the fog did in the early part of the year.
The other issue that is starting to crop up is the mapping algorithms. In the past 15% or 30% concentrations did a respectable job of telling us the story of the ice. Back then we had ice flows of many km2 that were all in one big piece. As we see from Modis. it is very hard to find any of those any more. They can get stitched back together during winter, but they are the weak points and break apart agian during the melt. Once that occurs then the older pieces get broken up even more. I am starting to get suspicious that even Poimas may be starting to high ball volume because the algorithm is making the presumption that some of the old ice is a lot thicker then it actually is and that there are flows that are not there. It probably will not happen this year, but one year very soon we are going to have another summer like 2007 and then poof it will all go, because IMO very uneducated that it is this ice is very very fragile.
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_Arctic#Early_European_observing_efforts
Quote
In 1884 the wreckage of the Jeanette, a ship abandoned three years earlier off Russia's eastern Arctic coast, was found on the coast of Greenland. This caused Fridtjof Nansen to realize that the sea ice was moving from the Siberian side of the Arctic to the Atlantic side. He decided to use this motion by freezing a specially designed ship, the Fram, into the sea ice and allowing it to be carried across the ocean. Meteorological observations were collected from the ship during its crossing from September 1893 to August 1896. This expedition also provided valuable insight into the circulation of the ice surface of the Arctic Ocean.
. Now we have a hard time finding a spot to put a buoy that will last one melt.
Also, remeber we had a very warm winter and as was posted in http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,910.0.html it talks about how some very interesting things start happening to ice at -5C . So I think what should be looked at carefully during the winter is how warm that ice is. We may have a great growth extent and volume wise, but if it is around -5C that could be the reason and set up for weaker ice during the melt. As has been noted by many already, that although it is sticking around this ice looks different from any ice we have seen before. And I do not mean in a healthy way.
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2209 on: July 15, 2014, 02:43:20 PM »
Fog or not, Uni Bremen maps are showing dramatically higher concentration this year compared to 2007, 2012 and even to some extent 2013 (attachments are placed in that order). Only Laptev is still ahead of all those years. My dreams of reaching record territory this year is fading and I'm starting to think still year might be a little bit like 2009.

Note that 2007 vs 2014 is AMSR-E vs AMSR-2 and 2012 vs 2014 is SSMIS/F18 vs AMSR-2.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2014, 02:49:32 PM by Rubikscube »

LRC1962

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2210 on: July 15, 2014, 03:19:03 PM »
@Rubikscube: I am not disputing the fact that according to their formulas, the concentrations are high. When I brought up the point of fog was that the fog melted the welds the winter freeze made from last years melt. It also makes things very difficult to see exactly what is going on. The other point was that per say 2000 when the consentrastrations said 100%, there was a very high likely hood you could walk the entire area and find only a very few brakes in the ice. Now, even the 100% levels still make walking on the Acrtic ice a very hazardous proposition because the ice is so broken up. They maybe close together, but Modis shows for the most part you have mainly just floating ice cubes, but still plainly seen. It is not compacted even, they are just floating closely enough so that the concentration maps give the ok for 100%. The main point I was trying to say is the ice is in big trouble, and to my mind, although the numbers are not the worst we have seen, this ice is the sickest ice we have seen.
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Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2211 on: July 15, 2014, 03:33:00 PM »
Does any one know when Nares strait opened up in previous years? I'm given to understand a fairly large amount of ice gets Advected out through there. If it's opening much earlier this year could this not have a big effect on the final state of the ice?

Looking at the images above it looks like the strait is opening earlier than in the other concentration maps.

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2212 on: July 15, 2014, 04:39:41 PM »
Bruce, no disagreement with your points really. The unknowns invite more room for danger than not, at least in climate systems. I foresee bifurcation of the Arctic not long after the first ice free summer.
What do you mean by bifurcation? A system that oscillates between two quasi-stable states? Like one year (or a few years) we have ice, the next we don't? If so, that's something I've been thinking about lately. I'd hate to see what havoc that plays with the weather in the lower latitudes.

Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2213 on: July 15, 2014, 04:44:03 PM »
I did not mean to argue with your reasoning LRC, just making a point that this is the Uni-maps and then you may jugde for yourself wherther or not AMSR-2 data and Uni's algorithms can be trusted these days. It might very well be that the ice this year is sicker than previous years, but the time might slowly be running out as the forecasts are turning extremly hostlie towards those looking for melt, thus the mention of 2009 which also had a lot of HP activty during late June and July.

Siffy
I recall that the issue of previous Nares breakups was discussed some time ago in the Nares-thread. As far as I know, there shouldn't be anything too unusual with the timing of this year’s breakup and some recent years have in fact seen Nares strait stay open for business all year around.

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2214 on: July 15, 2014, 04:51:00 PM »
I am not sure of what you are talking about ? I don't think so that one is a new one it is along the canadian archipelago.

I think it's Bruce's crack, grown to adolescence, with a steadily increasing rubble zone along the main trend line.
I noticed the expansion yesterday, but was hoping to get a clearer view today. It seems that when the winds/currents are moving the ice from east to west across the Archipelago, the crack turns into wider zone of ground up ice that exits the channel into the Beaufort. But when the counter-clockwise rotation seems to cause a clean break that either fills in or recloses when the rotation stops. It will be interesting to see how wide the crack can get -- there seems to be very little resistance to movement, so I imagine it could get quite wide.

The opening of the Nares is interesting, too. It's still a little plugged, but it looks like a zone of ice north of the mouth is fragmenting and getting ready to wash through. If so, we could see something of a polnya open north of greenland.

Also, I've noticed that while export through the Fram is slow, the strait between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land is absolutely gushing ice into the Barents. This is one of those things that looks like increased extent (and possibly area) but is really just a lot of ice getting melted and leaving thinner ice behind.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2215 on: July 15, 2014, 06:25:41 PM »
2d analysis is fool-hearty.
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deep octopus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2216 on: July 15, 2014, 07:43:56 PM »
Wildfires–perhaps of even greater extent than those in northern Canada–are in spreading in Siberia northwest of Lake Baikal. Last Worldview imagery seems to show the smoke drifting north towards the Arctic. Dang.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2217 on: July 15, 2014, 07:52:26 PM »
Does this soot and ash darken the ground like it does ice and snow?

The Canadian Archipelago appears to have been inundated quite a bit.
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2218 on: July 15, 2014, 09:24:18 PM »
@Friv: Came across this:
Quote
Invasive shrubs and soot pollution both have the potential to alter the surface energy
balance and timing of snow melt in the Arctic. Shrubs reduce the amount of snow lost to
sublimation on the tundra during the winter leading to a deeper end-of-winter snowpack.
The shrubs also enhance the absorption of energy by the snowpack during the melt
season, by converting incoming solar radiation to longwave radiation and sensible heat.
This results in a faster rate of snow melt, warmer near-surface air temperatures, and a
deeper boundary layer. Soot deposition lowers the albedo of the snow allowing it to more
effectively absorb incoming solar radiation and thus melt faster.
https://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/strackphd.pdf
Edit: Since there is a fair amount of tundra burning it not only adds to soot, but adds to desertification as plants are distroyed.
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Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2219 on: July 15, 2014, 11:04:37 PM »
Does any one know when Nares strait opened up in previous years? I'm given to understand a fairly large amount of ice gets Advected out through there. If it's opening much earlier this year could this not have a big effect on the final state of the ice?

Looking at the images above it looks like the strait is opening earlier than in the other concentration maps.

Siffy, I believe there is some info on the ASIB, and oceanographer Andreas Meunchow's blog called Icy Seas.

I will put a Nares blog post up later this week.

I see the ECMWF forecast shows more of the same, with perhaps a change far, far away (prone to change).
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gideonlow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2220 on: July 16, 2014, 12:30:55 AM »
Quote
The opening of the Nares is interesting, too. It's still a little plugged, but it looks like a zone of ice north of the mouth is fragmenting and getting ready to wash through. If so, we could see something of a polnya open north of greenland.

Try zooming-in on NASA Worldview, then clicking between today's date and yesterday's date:

July 14th: http://1.usa.gov/1rp3Y2m

July 15th: http://1.usa.gov/1rp3Nnw

Looking at the movement of the ice floes that are almost due North of Petermman Fjord, and comparing with the provided scale, the ice is moving about 8km per DAY!!!  I don't know how that compares with "normal", but I find it very impressive for ice that, at a glance, appears not to be very mobile.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2014, 01:03:43 AM by gideonlow »

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2221 on: July 16, 2014, 03:03:17 AM »
These fires in Canada are completely out of control. All that smoke and soot is now drifting out over the Archipelago.
These fires are big news in Canada.
Quote
More than 2 dozen forest fires in BC and more than 160 are burning in the NW Territories right now. The city of Yellowknife is practically cut off from the south by smoke and flames... Overnight, a section of the main highway melted... The capital is still cut off... Never seen conditions like this... How would you get out? There's not much you can do if the roads are blocked off... In Yellowknife today, murky hake obscures the sun, and ash has been dripping from the sky... and the worst fire season in 30 years is not over yet.
(http://podcast.cbc.ca/w6/worldatsix.mp3 -- 12:55 -- The link will only point at this story for today, July 15).

(OT, but interestingly, the story follows one about the California drought, and is followed by one about flooding in Manitoba, then one about beached dolphins in Newfoundland. I guess not just Canada but the whole world will soon start to get used to news dominated by stories like these.)
« Last Edit: July 16, 2014, 03:48:05 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2222 on: July 16, 2014, 03:46:32 AM »
Interesting observations about ice thickness, snow, and fog from the Oden: http://ciresblogs.colorado.edu/icebreaker/2014/07/15/thick-ice-melting-snowflakes/
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2223 on: July 16, 2014, 09:24:20 AM »
Nice map of ship track with ice concentration overlay here http://oden.geo.su.se/map/
blog entries from swedish scientists

Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2224 on: July 16, 2014, 05:42:53 PM »
The arctic winds are fueled by the Barentz and the very very persistent ridge on the pacific side, the direction of the winds remains the same over the Arctic. A lot of clouds we cannot see much.
The Laptev bite is melting fast, I wonder where the energy is coming from ? There should be something else than the sun overwise the whole Arctic would melt that way ? May be the discharge of the Siberian rivers ?
« Last Edit: July 16, 2014, 05:56:38 PM by Laurent »

iceman

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2225 on: July 16, 2014, 05:54:12 PM »
Rubikscube, your charts are a valuable addition to this forum.  The interannual charts show how strikingly different melt seasons can be.
...  Only Laptev is still ahead of all those years. ...
A noteworthy feature indeed.  Given the various conditions that have favored ice preservation during mid-2014 (late snow cover, widespread fog, low transport to warmer waters, little heat or moisture entering the Arctic from lower latitudes), is there some reason Laptev is the exception?  Could be just random weather patterns, of course.  I wonder about currents, which would have more persistent effects.  Others on the forum or Neven's blog have speculated about upwelling or disturbance of the thermocline near Lomonosov Ridge.

Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2226 on: July 16, 2014, 06:25:15 PM »
Looking at world view I'd say the Nares strait is opening up about a week to twelve days earlier than in 2013.

2012 seems to be the same as 2014 for when the strait opened up. Interesting.

JMP

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2227 on: July 16, 2014, 08:14:45 PM »
This was helpful to me in understanding more about Nares' "Large sea ice outflow into the Nares Strait in 2007" http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL041872/full

Nares is important.

That paper says:  "If there is a decreased likelihood of arch formation as the ice cover becomes thinner and weaker due to warming, there is the potential for the Nares Strait to shift to a higher flow state. In the face of a rapidly declining MY sea ice cover [Kwok et al., 2009], the outflow at Nares Strait could contribute significantly to the depletion of the multiyear sea ice area and volume of the Arctic Ocean, and thus the decline in summer ice coverage." 

2007 I believe, has been the only year on record that did not see formation of the ice bridges.
"This resulted in the highest outflow of Arctic sea ice in the 13-year record between 1997 and 2009."
But,  "The ice volume exported in 2007 represents >10% of the mean ice export at Fram Strait."

Nares is significant and not only because it could push a year past previous records, it has the potential for exporting some of the oldest ice, and is a symptom of a ailing Arctic.  And, the volume is significant.  But in terms of area/extent, 2007 saw 'only' 87,000 km2 exported through Nares Strait out of about 10,559,000 km2 lost that year.
 
It may be a significant portion of the 2014 melting season but likely a smaller one. 

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2228 on: July 16, 2014, 09:22:04 PM »
Remember when you use km2 data you're missing the thickness part.


Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2229 on: July 16, 2014, 10:26:23 PM »
Yes, volume.
You do not compare the same date ?  10,559,000 km2 was for the year ? Naires strait opened for a short time. if yes do you have the surface exported for the same opening periode so we can really compare ? (it would be better with volume but if you have the surface that would give an idea) Thanks.

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2230 on: July 16, 2014, 11:37:26 PM »
The stuff hanging out at the top of the Nares is pretty thick compared to a lot of the FYI that washes out the Fram.  10% as much extent could be 20% or more volume.

Just looking at today's ARC thickness map some of the Nares ice is 4.5 to 5 meter ice while most of the Fram ice is in the 2 meter range.

Just saying...

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2231 on: July 16, 2014, 11:51:40 PM »
According to this model (i know, i know) by next Monday Beaufort ice has thinned substantially AND more interesting Bruce Crack may widen considerably, from Beaufort to NW Greenland. We'll see

« Last Edit: July 17, 2014, 12:01:09 AM by seattlerocks »

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2232 on: July 17, 2014, 02:46:55 AM »
Speaking of the big crack, it is definitely showing renewed signs of life. A little hard to see through the clouds, but unmistakable. A couple more days of this drift pattern and we're likely to see something interesting. It's already at least 10 miles wide in some spots, and with a bit more of the same conditions you'll be able to sail from the Beaufort practically to Greenland. Who needs a northwest passage when you've got the Big CrackTM?

Edit: note that the two images are from different sources, so the second image is rotated counterclockwise relative to the first.

JMP

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2233 on: July 17, 2014, 06:10:17 AM »
Remember when you use km2 data you're missing the thickness part.
Yes, volume.
You do not compare the same date ?  10,559,000 km2 was for the year ? Naires strait opened for a short time. if yes do you have the surface exported for the same opening periode so we can really compare ? (it would be better with volume but if you have the surface that would give an idea) Thanks.

Same date range, both are for the entire year 2007.

Managed to find and calculate volume data (below).  It was just simpler for me to use extent as a quick search for yearly volume didn't get results (lazy  ;)).

In 2007 the amount lost through Nares "was more than twice the average amount lost through Nares each year between 1997 and 2009" (NASA 2010). I would think it likely to be nearly the same or still close to half since then too.  Of course too, the ice isn't as thick now as it was in March of 2007. - I've not seen Nares-only data for any other years.

     254 km3 = loss (volume flux) by export through Nares for (all 2007) "Large sea ice outflow into the Nares Strait in 2007" *
17,396 km3 = loss (volume flux) by melt + export basin-wide (all  2007 or melt season which was calculated from PIOMAS daily                                   volume. Max. (day 93) - min. (day 262)) 
                                                                                                                           

* R. Kwok1, L. Toudal Pedersen2, P. Gudmandsen3 andS. S. Pang1

deep octopus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2234 on: July 17, 2014, 06:24:09 AM »
A low pressure system over Beaufort over the next couple of days is going to help this momentum for sure, drawing southerly winds. The pull on the ice will be strongest west of Ellesmere it looks, widening the crack. Compared to last year, there does appear to be some more weakness in the ice manifesting along the CAA. The fact that Nares is breaking up around the same time as the fracturing gives me the impression that some loose, multiyear ice may soon find an easier exit.

At the same time, whereas the CAB is caught in a blanket of lows, and struggles to find a reverse dipole sometime next week, pulses of warm air will continue over the CAA. My instinct is that the Canadian side is going to be confused mess by the end of the month. With the warm air and periodic rain, the remaining snow on the islands should runoff onto the ice. Then there will be some melting in situ within the archipelago, on top of Nares flushing.

EDIT: Oh yeah, and the damn soot.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2014, 06:29:11 AM by deep octopus »

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2235 on: July 17, 2014, 09:45:58 AM »
A low pressure system over Beaufort over the next couple of days is going to help this momentum for sure, drawing southerly winds. The pull on the ice will be strongest west of Ellesmere it looks, widening the crack. Compared to last year, there does appear to be some more weakness in the ice manifesting along the CAA. The fact that Nares is breaking up around the same time as the fracturing gives me the impression that some loose, multiyear ice may soon find an easier exit.

At the same time, whereas the CAB is caught in a blanket of lows, and struggles to find a reverse dipole sometime next week, pulses of warm air will continue over the CAA. My instinct is that the Canadian side is going to be confused mess by the end of the month. With the warm air and periodic rain, the remaining snow on the islands should runoff onto the ice. Then there will be some melting in situ within the archipelago, on top of Nares flushing.

EDIT: Oh yeah, and the damn soot.

Judging from appearances, the last ice separating the coastal Beaufort from the Chukchi is about to melt out.

There is yet more impressive heat coming out through the CAA into the CAB and eastern Beaufort.  I anticipate considerable melt activity there over the next week.

Which brings us to the NW Passage.  There is heat reaching the low Teens coming up across the passage over the next week.  The ice has been severely weakened.  I would not be surprised to see a break up take place similar to what we just saw in the Nares.
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2236 on: July 17, 2014, 06:27:04 PM »
Nice map of ship track with ice concentration overlay here http://oden.geo.su.se/map/
blog entries from swedish scientists
just spotted that the ice concentration is badly misaligned. sea ice is drifting across land in Siberia and there is a Greenland shaped hole between Iceland and Spitsbergen. Haven't found a way to tell them yet.

Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2237 on: July 17, 2014, 06:47:17 PM »
Andreas T, you may try to contact one of the scientist ?
http://bolin.su.se/index.php/our-people

Still a lot of clouds, nearly the same wind patterns.
There is a big gap that is appearing (1)
The ice is stressed away from Beaufort (2)
http://1.usa.gov/1peJqai

Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2238 on: July 17, 2014, 06:56:41 PM »
nice Algal bloom in Barentz

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2239 on: July 17, 2014, 09:19:43 PM »
I've been watching Nares and Fram quite closely, thanks to all the links, but also on hycom sss and sst, DMIs and  http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/  temp/anomoly. It looks like low salinity water has been exiting both straits, lower salinity than Pacific water. It seems quite a lot of this is making its way under the ice from Laptev both around the 80deg+/- lattitude and across the CAB. The southern route water seems to be passing not just though Nares but around both sides of Axel Hieberg, and the water that takes the CAB route passing through Fram.
What I think this means is that the fresh meltwater from Lena and all points east is escaping, which if true implies a far more difficult freezing season, not to mention the damage it does to the ice it passes under and the state of that ice to allow it passage.
Present wind conditions as per  http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.67,85.99,512 show the ice being pushed south paralell to the archipelagos grounded ice line which suggests the gap there will widen for a while and that mass will have to be replaced from somewhere and it's going to be warmer.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2240 on: July 18, 2014, 01:44:14 AM »
Tangent, but worth keeping in mind.  Seems we have a rather vicious fire season of historic proportions underway. Also discussed over at Neven's blog.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nw-fires-weather-climate-change-boreal-forests-17778
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deep octopus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2241 on: July 18, 2014, 02:53:39 AM »
Robert Scribbler has posted an article discussing the intensities of the ongoing wildfires in Canada and Siberia, going full circle with how this has roots as far back as this winter with the high pressure ridge. I don't think it too tangential. I subscribe to the notion that the goings-on in nearby regions will have an impact on the sea ice, ultimately. Some wacky stuff is happening in the atmosphere these recent years. Only to get worse as the ice declines.

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/17/polar-jet-stream-wrecked-by-climate-change-fuels-unprecedented-wildfires-over-canada-and-siberia/
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 03:00:38 AM by deep octopus »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2242 on: July 18, 2014, 03:20:57 AM »
Robert Scribbler has posted an article discussing the intensities of the ongoing wildfires in Canada and Siberia, going full circle with how this has roots as far back as this winter with the high pressure ridge.

My primary response right now... literally... is a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach.



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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2243 on: July 18, 2014, 07:09:27 AM »
The weather is pretty solid for ice retention at least over the next 6-7 days.

The thin ice over large parts of the Pacific side and ice over the Atlantic side that will be under consistent warmth will probably slowly melt down but I can't see 2014 doing anything but slowing down especially extent wise and falling further behind.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2244 on: July 18, 2014, 09:03:49 AM »
The weather is pretty solid for ice retention at least over the next 6-7 days.

The thin ice over large parts of the Pacific side and ice over the Atlantic side that will be under consistent warmth will probably slowly melt down but I can't see 2014 doing anything but slowing down especially extent wise and falling further behind.
You will understand when I say, I am both elated and disappointed at the news....
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Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2245 on: July 18, 2014, 09:08:19 AM »
Nearly same wind pattern than 2 days ago except that the hot air is coming further down south on the Barentz side and is leeching the north pole instead of the periphery. The wide openings in beaufort and Laptev are big enough to start creating some wind patern on their own...

The season is not over yet, we can have some surprises...let's see how it goes.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 09:15:01 AM by Laurent »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2246 on: July 18, 2014, 09:17:47 AM »
The weather is pretty solid for ice retention at least over the next 6-7 days.

The thin ice over large parts of the Pacific side and ice over the Atlantic side that will be under consistent warmth will probably slowly melt down but I can't see 2014 doing anything but slowing down especially extent wise and falling further behind.
You will understand when I say, I am both elated and disappointed at the news....

I am starting to think this year will probably end up about 4.5-4.6 mil on Jaxa min and 3.1-3.3 mil on CT min.

barring either a 2013 total +NAO the rest of the way or a switch to a big dipole for at least half of August.

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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2247 on: July 18, 2014, 12:54:03 PM »
I agree friv. The current forecasts are giving me 2013 flashbacks, but there is a chance that will change as LP systems are hard to predict accurately. Greenland and to some extent CAA look set to warm pretty much though, which would be different from June and August 2013.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2248 on: July 18, 2014, 01:37:57 PM »
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=202.68,86.96,447

The Earth model (pictured above) gives an idea of surface temperatures.  Select Earth to get the menu and then go to the Temp overlay which shows current winds (and hence cyclonic activity) and temperature by color.  Hold right-mouse briefly on any location to select the location and it shows the values for the parameters there. 

(Also shows all the other useful weather parameters. Updated about 6 hourly, I think)

It shows temperatures like: In Siberia south of Laptev Sea some ground surface temps over 30C.  Nares Straight 2C with a decent northerly drift opposing the current. 

None of this is exactly conducive to sustaining ice cover, tho whether it slows down before October is anybody's guess at this stage.

Almost too much information - think I will go out and cuddle me veggies for a bit, as they at least provide me with a frail fragment of hope, (and solace when they reach harvest)!

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2249 on: July 18, 2014, 04:31:19 PM »
Robert Scribbler has posted an article discussing the intensities of the ongoing wildfires in Canada and Siberia, going full circle with how this has roots as far back as this winter with the high pressure ridge.

My primary response right now... literally... is a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach.
Sort of a beginning of the end kind of feeling, huh? It's incredibly depressing to see so much destruction, and then to know that it's only getting started. There will be years ahead that we'll look back on this as the good old days.