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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2300 on: July 20, 2014, 07:36:27 AM »
Looks like bottom melt is starting to work its magic in Beaufort. And there's little the weather can do about that.

It's only July 19th as well.  About 1 meter to 1.25 meter loss across the Canadian basin and pretty much all of the ice will be gone.

The ESS is where heat will need to return soon if this season has a chance to go below 2010. But I think 2013 will be tuff with the Canadian basin already in ruins.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2301 on: July 20, 2014, 08:12:23 AM »
From the NSIDC


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

iceman

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2302 on: July 20, 2014, 01:24:23 PM »
One thing that has struck me this melt season is the remarkable low energy or torpor that has persisted.
Yes, a good title for Neven's next ASI blog would be "The Summer Doldrums."

Apart from the effects you mention, BFTV has noted lack of warmth and moisture entering the Arctic from lower latitudes.  This looks set to continue near-term except in the CAA and around Svalbard.

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2303 on: July 20, 2014, 01:31:40 PM »
One thing that has struck me this melt season is the remarkable low energy or torpor that has persisted.
Yes, a good title for Neven's next ASI blog would be "The Summer Doldrums."

If things keep up like this the next title will be "slow times", following "high times" and "low times". But "Summer Doldrums" is very good.  ;D
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NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2304 on: July 20, 2014, 01:51:54 PM »
I have been exceptionally busy and disconnected this last 6 months.  So I've mainly been sitting back and watching, listening and thinking.

I have some thoughts on all of this.

It is now accepted that there is a dividing line in Arctic Ice conditions.  Pre 2007 and post 2007.  However, I believe what most of the focus on 2014 really comes down to is whether 2014 will be post 2007 or post 2012.  It's quite clear that 2013 was just another post 2007 year.  Even with exceptionally poor conditions for melt in 2013, the ice conditions did not come even close to the years prior to 2007.  Nowhere near in fact in either volume, area or extent.

So now I look at the charts.  2014 is following 2013 pretty closely, despite poor melt conditions, despite significantly increased areas of 2nd year ice.  2013 started out with much more 1st year ice than 2014.  Yet 2014 continues to melt on almost exactly the same path as 2013.  Bottom melt is quite pronounced in areas where you would not expect, the ice is in a very poor state.  2nd year ice is in very poor condition and has a much higher salt content than normal for 2nd year ice.

So looking at the charts, who honestly believes that 2014 is going to stop, in just a few days time, for 2 - 3 weeks?  And if it does not?  Then the ice will continue to decline below 2013.  The ice will move back towards 2010/11/12.

In my mind that will put 2014 in a Post 2012 phase.  The ice has, again, shifted to a new configuration.  Less heat, less insolation, less favourable conditions for melt; will cause more and more melt of arctic ice.

Until, of course, in another 3 years, we turn the full 5 year cycle again and we get another spectacular year for melt.  At which time, we are likely to see the North Pole fully clear of ice for the first time since Homo Sapiens Sapiens walked the planet.  I'm assuming that this will be preceded with 2015 and 2016 producing more and more melt regardless of the conditions for that melt.

Talking about hypotheses, I have a vision myself.  The entire Arctic annual cycle feels like a late Autumn day, on the side of a large river, to me.  Cold overnight, but the river water stays warm.  Sudden warming in the morning which causes low fog banks which hold down the temperature.  Then, depending on the weather for the day, it will either warm significantly and burn the fog off, turning into a hot and glorious day, heating the river even more: or: It will continue cooler with clouds and even when the fog lifts, the day remains cool.  One more day on the journey to winter.

The Annual Arctic cycle, to me, appears to be going in reverse.  Late Autumn to early Autumn, to Summer.  The winters will continue to warm, the sea will continue to absorb heat and not dissipate it, ice will continue to reduce in volume, extent and area until, eventually, the ice has no significance in the planets heat management cycle.  Then let the games begin.  If we're prosecuting the paid deniers can I be on the Jury??

I'm voting for post 2012, no record, just a continuation of a disastrous cycle which we have brought upon ourselves.
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2305 on: July 20, 2014, 02:45:04 PM »
If we're prosecuting the paid deniers can I be on the Jury??

The paid deniers should be given a fair trial <snip>, but they are the small fry. I would love to be on the jury when the payers are tried for fraud and crimes against humanity. I would even settle for a seat on the damages lawsuit against the Kochs.

I wonder where all the heat that would normally be over the U.S. has moved to? It's hard to imagine the current weather returning to normal gracefully . . .
« Last Edit: July 20, 2014, 08:53:02 PM by Neven »

jonthed

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2306 on: July 20, 2014, 03:27:15 PM »
If this lawsuit http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-28389273 is successful against a tobacco company for just one person's death,

 imagine what's down the line for those obstructing climate action...

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2307 on: July 20, 2014, 09:24:56 PM »
If the drift maps are correct, then the next week sees ice pushing from the central regions into most of the open water areas: Beaufort, Chukchi, Laptev, Barents. If that happens, we should expect to see increases or very slow decreases in extent, but decreases in concentration.

Too bad its so cloudy, it would be interesting to watch some of the process in action.


jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2308 on: July 21, 2014, 09:55:28 AM »
Watch this space... Climate Reanalizer predicts crushing heat - 20-30C above normal - over  substantial portions of the NWP and GIS, starting in 2-3 days time.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/
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Buddy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2309 on: July 21, 2014, 11:39:34 AM »
Yes....if you click on "Northern Hemisphere"....and "temperature anomaly".....  You can see that starting about Wednesday....the southern side of the NWP....really starts to get some heat....and goes through NEXT Monday (7 days from no).

Also note that she has a "twin sister" that starts on about Saturday on the north coast of Russia.....

And while I'm here...also notice that the GIS may be putting in its "last hurrah" (last big melt) for the summer.  If you switch to "temperature".....you'll see that GIS may get to 50% or more early-to-mid week.

This is "timely" to have both the heat.....AND the soot from the fires in the Northwest Territories AND in Oregon/Washington fires AND the Siberia fires......at the same time.

Interesting week this week..........
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2310 on: July 21, 2014, 06:05:30 PM »
According to NOAA, June was the hottest on record, making two months in a row.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2311 on: July 21, 2014, 06:59:44 PM »
The 12z GFS breaks the current cool and favorable wind pattern down in the medium range.
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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2312 on: July 21, 2014, 07:40:07 PM »
According to NOAA, June was the hottest on record, making two months in a row.
Ugh. We're not even in a full blown El Nino yet, and the sea surface temperature anomaly was the largest ever recorded.

Good thing we don't need the oceans for anything, otherwise we might have to worry about their ecosystems.

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2313 on: July 21, 2014, 07:44:23 PM »
Looks like the ESS fast ice fell apart when we weren't looking.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2314 on: July 21, 2014, 08:09:14 PM »
The ESS side at large is doing pretty well so far.

The Canadian basin ****ed.

This image was enhanced to show where the ice is thicker and more solid versus where it's not.

Winds turn towards stout compaction over the Canadian basin right now thru at least the next 3 days.  But remain favorable for the ice over the ESS, Laptev.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2315 on: July 21, 2014, 09:50:22 PM »
One thing that has struck me this melt season is the remarkable low energy or torpor that has persisted.
Yes, a good title for Neven's next ASI blog would be "The Summer Doldrums."

If things keep up like this the next title will be "slow times", following "high times" and "low times". But "Summer Doldrums" is very good.  ;D

Slow compared to what? 2012 or 2007?

I'm still seeing the prospects for surprises and I see 2014 as being certainly a post 2007 year. I'm using anomalies as they allow one to see the long term context, apart from the last graph, the following regional graphs are difference from the 1980 to 1999 average on 20 July, the latest 2014 data available. Regional data from Wipneus's calculation based on NSIDC gridded concentration data.

Good for melting ice =  ;D
Bad for melting ice =  :(


Beaufort is soundly in the post 2007 group and is very different from 2013, note that 2014 is not much different from 2007 or 2011.  ;D


Chuckchi is behind all post 2007 years apart from 2010 and 2013 (due to mutli year ice and weather respectively). Also Chukchi is next to the ESS and we've seen the large amount of ice there.  :(

And indeed the ESS is 'behind schedule'.  :(
But just a week of large losses there, with the ongoing thinning and the right weather could bring it back into the game.

Laptev has been ahead of previous years for some time, now it's a bit behind 2011.

Does anyone think that large tract of open water isn't going to continue to expand, and how close will the northerly lip get to the pole? I don't think it will get right to the pole, but I expect it to get close.  ;D


Kara is the highest since 2004 (least negative anomaly), but we've all seen the state of that ice, is it reasonable to expect it to survive?  ;D


And Barents is in with the pack of post 2005 years.

Given the long term behaviour shown in that plot it's hard to see how cooler ocean temperatures are going to save Barents, they didn't in the past.  ;D

The Greenland Sea is very low for recent years, that's not a good thing for low volume - it means export through Fram is poor this year.

Without the Greenland ridge and associated high southward winds (northerlies) are absent so export is poor.  :(

The CAA has relatively high extent of ice but it's not so far behind 2012 or 2007 that catching up is impossible.  ;D


And the Central Arctic, the biggest area.

Despite relatively poor melt conditions through much of this season, Central is clearly in with the other post 2010 years, all it takes is some more thinning and opening of water for that to continue.  ;D

And perhaps the most important thing is that as I've shown in my latest blog post the continuing positive anomaly of compactness was due to the Central region and the CAA. That's now coming to an end. The peripheral seas have shown below average compactness - which is associated with ice loss, e.g. 2007 and 2012. With the decline in compactness the possibility of greater falls in CT Area is opened. At present CT Area anomalies are aiming for 2013 at minimum, if they fall that may take us away from that and down towards a mid range post 2007 year.  ;D


Looking at NSIDC Extent anomalies July has often seen near level conditions with falls later in the season.

There is every reason to expect such falls later this season. Looking at that graph take 2008, not a great year of ice loss, suppose we have just a 600k above average loss over the next 40 days, 15k above average loss per day average, 2008 dropped more than that. Which would mean we hit September in the top four lowest years (done by eye), not a bad result considering the late start to the 2014 season. As for slow, look at what 2012, the orange line in the above graph, was doing around now compared to what it did later in the season.

2012 is out of the running, but I still think 2014 could get exciting in the weeks to come. The big unknown is whether the export of MYI will retard melt in Beaufort, Chukchi and the ESS, but that is far from certain IMO.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2316 on: July 21, 2014, 11:25:31 PM »
Recent conditions have slowed extent, but CT area has been dropping faster than average as concentration drops in the Beaufort and Chukchi areas.  MODIS shows that this is a real drop in concentration with small pieces of open water everywhere, and has been caused by low pressure in the area diverging the pack.

With Laptev still going, the ice near Chukchi weakening significantly, and ESS behind schedule it looks like we may be well on the way to setting up an exposed arm or even island of ice in the ESS sector, which can melt on multiple fronts.  This was a factor behind the strong late season melts in 2008 and 2012, and I think we will see a strong finish this year as well.
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Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2317 on: July 21, 2014, 11:26:46 PM »
If things keep up like this the next title will be "slow times", following "high times" and "low times". But "Summer Doldrums" is very good.  ;D

Slow compared to what? 2012 or 2007?
For instance. Or similar to 2013.

Quote
I'm still seeing the prospects for surprises and I see 2014 as being certainly a post 2007 year.
This is definitely true. Like you say, there's quite a bit of potential out there, especially on the fringes. But the weather has a big say in whether this potential is to be fulfilled. And if there isn't a switch to more favourable MCT conditions (melt, compaction, transport), things will more probably stall.

Quote
2012 is out of the running, but I still think 2014 could get exciting in the weeks to come. The big unknown is whether the export of MYI will retard melt in Beaufort, Chukchi and the ESS, but that is far from certain IMO.
As you say, this is the big thing to watch out for (thanks for posting it):



BTW, here's my latest CAPIE graph, with 2014 finally dropping, now that SIE is stalling, but SIA keeps producing century breaks:

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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2318 on: July 21, 2014, 11:36:22 PM »
Thanks, Chris, that's a great summary. The graphs are really helpful -- and they show just how variable each region is from year to year. I think that demonstrates that the local and regional weather patterns are a big factor in what will melt and when. Even 2012 had regions where it was slower than other years. And even 2014, which has so far had pretty mild weather, leads the pack in some areas.

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2319 on: July 22, 2014, 12:17:33 AM »
That was a great post indeed. Thx

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2320 on: July 22, 2014, 12:43:27 AM »
Im sure u guys are more familiar with it but it strikes me how beautiful the dynamics of  the Arctic is. Like in March, north of svalbard was free of ice for a while and now it is clotted with it, getting a lot by transport. Then this  was a winter with high fram transport and now see. What about the low eurasia snow cover in april  but very  positive anomaly in May, probably including the arctic basin snowing?. Then clear skies in mid June but with that mysterious fog and its ghostly twister dancing around. And the Central Arctic that seems solid like a rock. I wonder what is happening below. Real fun watching the Arctic ha! Time will say how fun consequences are though.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2321 on: July 22, 2014, 04:52:32 AM »
The Euro breaks down the pattern at the end of the week on the OP and ensemble mean with a big big ridge over the Pacific side and a big time warmth/compaction.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2322 on: July 22, 2014, 05:24:06 AM »
Detail from the CAA, centered on the sound north of Bathurst Island.

The persistent heat appears to be taking a toll.

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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2323 on: July 22, 2014, 05:28:50 AM »
Same location North of Bathurst island, 250M detail.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2324 on: July 22, 2014, 05:47:35 AM »
I think at some point if the models are right over the next 10 days big losses over the Pacific side will get going.  A huge area of the Canadian basin is in dire straights.

This is only a glance of the Chuchki behind the clouds but it's on deaths door.  The sun is progged to return soon and even with insolation reaching below 400W/m2 in 15-20 days there it's still well strong with reduced albedo + bottom melt for cause a fast drop here.

I think the entire melt season will come down to how the ESS does and if enough heating will recommence there.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

deep octopus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2325 on: July 22, 2014, 06:02:20 AM »
Maybe an August 2008 redux coming to the fore?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2326 on: July 22, 2014, 06:07:05 AM »
Maybe an August 2008 redux coming to the fore?

Very possible if the weather cooperates.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2327 on: July 22, 2014, 07:08:38 AM »
The GFS and Euro are now both on board with a major pattern change in the opposite direction 2013 took around this time.

IF this happens the slow down will quickly turn around into big losses again.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2328 on: July 22, 2014, 09:04:19 AM »
If this lawsuit http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-28389273 is successful against a tobacco company for just one person's death,

 imagine what's down the line for those obstructing climate action...
Different. Tobacco is against the system now. Tobacco is a mild brain stimulator, it helps to think more and better (if you didn't know that, well, dig into relevant papers). Nowadays, the system doesn't want "peasants" to think. If not for large fraction of people being smokers and tobacco lobbies, it would already be illegal and criminal offense.

Obstructing certain _kinds_ of climate action - is not against the system; the opposite, it is in the system's interest to obstruct quite many types of climate action. Few other types, however, are not obstructed - more, already performed for 10+ years. Subtly. Welsbach seeding is going on - we could argue about the scale, if we'd so want, but the fact of seeding of at least significant scale - itself is quite evident, if one actually cares to research the subject well.


...The winters will continue to warm, the sea will continue to absorb heat and not dissipate it, ice will continue to reduce in volume, extent and area until, eventually, the ice has no significance in the planets heat management cycle.  Then let the games begin.  If we're prosecuting the paid deniers can I be on the Jury??
...
Ice will always have massive significance in the Earth heat cycle. Polar winter is 0 insolation for months on end, and lots of ice will always form in such conditions - and quite much will persist into at least early parts of polar day, doing its massive increase of local albedo.

And no, we are not prosecuting paid deniers. If you think they do only harm - you are mistaken. Basically, mankind is already in a Titanic's situation: the ship we're riding on - which is the biosphere of Earth, - is hit badly, it already has a few BIG holes, and is sinking tremendously fast (geologic terms). Thing is, every honest and attentive scientist who bothered to spend at least few motnhs to study the problem - now has a concrete certainty that most of mankind won't make it - there are no lifeboats for them. There are only lifeboats for quite very few (possibly waaay less than 5%), and it's not a given those lifeboats won't be overloaded and/or burned down before they can depart from the main (and sinking) ship. Deniers serve very important purpose of keeping lots of stupid, lazy and otherwise incapable folks from even realizing that there is a need to find a lifeboat and ensure a palce in it. Thus they actually _help_, long-term, to increase chances of species survival.

And when i say "lifeboats", i definitely mean very real, very Earthly and very limited (in quantity and size) spaces - nothing sci-fi'ish or unrational.

Your post shows you have brainpower, that's why i am telling you all the above. Your choice what to do with the information. Choose wisely, and good luck.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2014, 09:17:18 AM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2329 on: July 22, 2014, 09:12:53 AM »
The GFS ensemble mean has continued to trend much warmer in the medium range with a big ridge on the Pacific side.

This would put an end IMO 2014 having any chance of being tied or above 2013.





I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2330 on: July 22, 2014, 09:17:19 AM »
The 00z Euro completely agrees with the GFS calling for a big pattern change as we near the end of July.



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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

6roucho

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2331 on: July 22, 2014, 09:37:34 AM »
Different. Tobacco is against the system now. Tobacco is a mild brain stimulator, it helps to think more and better (if you didn't know that, well, dig into relevant papers). Nowadays, the system doesn't want "peasants" to think. If not for large fraction of people being smokers and tobacco lobbies, it would already be illegal and criminal offense.

F.Tnioli, are you proposing that measures against tobacco are the result of dark forces in society seeking to reduce the computational power of individuals, and not a medical response to its physical toxicity? Or am I being whooshed?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2332 on: July 22, 2014, 10:40:09 AM »
Different. Tobacco is against the system now. Tobacco is a mild brain stimulator, it helps to think more and better (if you didn't know that, well, dig into relevant papers). Nowadays, the system doesn't want "peasants" to think. If not for large fraction of people being smokers and tobacco lobbies, it would already be illegal and criminal offense.

F.Tnioli, are you proposing that measures against tobacco are the result of dark forces in society seeking to reduce the computational power of individuals, and not a medical response to its physical toxicity? Or am I being whooshed?
Sulfate seeding? Population crash below 250 million? Leeeets take this discussion over to Consequences please?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2333 on: July 22, 2014, 12:01:42 PM »
It's forecast to heat up by over 10 C in the next couple days in areas near the CAA. E.g. Kugaaruk, NU may have lows on Friday and Saturday above normal highs, and highs near 30 C.

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-13_metric_e.html
https://goo.gl/maps/oA8bo
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2334 on: July 22, 2014, 12:08:23 PM »
Looks like melting...
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2335 on: July 22, 2014, 12:28:09 PM »
Different. Tobacco is against the system now. Tobacco is a mild brain stimulator, it helps to think more and better (if you didn't know that, well, dig into relevant papers). Nowadays, the system doesn't want "peasants" to think. If not for large fraction of people being smokers and tobacco lobbies, it would already be illegal and criminal offense.

F.Tnioli, are you proposing that measures against tobacco are the result of dark forces in society seeking to reduce the computational power of individuals, and not a medical response to its physical toxicity? Or am I being whooshed?
Not proposing - stating. Yes, i am. No, not "dark forces", - there is no definite ethical evaluation possible; dumbing down of "average Joe" has its benefits in terms of survival of human and non-human species, - benefits and drawbacks too, of course. That said, it's very likely that most forces responsible for anti-tobacco world-wide campaign of last ~2 decades - are dark forces indeed; but not dark _because_ of this campaign. They, themselves, may think the opposite - their goals and intentions may well be definitely dark, yes, - but only because they do not grasp what good effects their campaign has. Rather ironic situation, in fact. And yes, it is about reducing thinking power of individuals much more than about medical response. Medical response is of course also the cause - but very minor one. You see, percentage of people who get killed by (usually excessive) smoking - is small as it is, yet the percentage of people killed by tobacco _before_ they reach retirement age - is very, very small figure (of all smokers).

It is rather difficult to estimate whether the system has net positive or negative monetary effect out of medical effects of tobacco: those quite very few who are killed by tobacco before reaching retirement age - are definitely a loss (in terms of lost taxes and such), however, times more people who are killed by tobacco _after_ reaching retirement age (and actually taking the retirement), - those people, by dying earlier than otherwise expected, are a net monetary gain to the system, since the system does not have to pay benefits to them no more. In any case, i don't think it's any significant difference economically.

Ergo, the main reason for the system to care about medical effects of tobacco - is PR. I mean, propaganda. The system certainly benefits from "explaining" to people that it cares about their health. It's a good way to indoctrinate those who can be affected by such indoctrinations (sadly, it's the majority).

Oh, and to clarify: when i say "the system", i primarily mean this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism . Refer to Noam Chomsky's relevant interviews and papers on the subject if you seek further understanding of the system. In case you don't know who Noam Chomsky is: he's one of brightests minds in existance today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noam_Chomsky , in particular the last paragraph before "contents".

If you honestly think that the system genuinely care about people's heath - then ask yourself: why, exactly, much more deadly causes than tobacco smoking - do not get even quarter of critisism tobacco smoking gets? Such causes are, in so-called "developed" world:
 - unhealthy food (i.e. "industrial" and "fast"), consumed by billions of people for decades on end, causing a big share of cardiovascular, digestive and other diseases, including cancers and diabetes - i'd especially underline the deadly role of large/huge white sugar content, net amount in a typical urban daily diet;
 - infections and parasites;
 - stress and hostilities, which is nothing else than an avoidable (in vast majority of cases) true cause of many suicides, strokes and some other "mechanically determined" death causes;
 - alcoholism, which is one more huge true cause of suicides, homicides and various deadly diseases (primarily liver and brain diseases, but also digestive and cardiovascular ones as well). A study in Sweden found that 29% to 44% of "unnatural" deaths (those not caused by illness) were related to alcohol. The causes of death included murder, suicide, falls, traffic accidents, asphyxia, and intoxication.

Armed with knowledge of what i said just above, please take a look at the list of "direct" death causes ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_causes_of_death_by_rate ), and then ask yourself: are tobacco's medical effects as important as system wants us to believe, if the stamp disease of tobacco smokers - lung cancer, - is only on 18th place in the list (and we know that some lung cancers occur in non-smokers, too)?

Geez, i know it's all off-topic here, but gentlemen, i ask you all to forgive me the extent and location of my here response - it's just a case of acute psychological allergy to the system's lies which (the allergy) i _sometimes_ get... Best wishes to everyone here!
« Last Edit: July 22, 2014, 12:58:35 PM by F.Tnioli »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2336 on: July 22, 2014, 12:41:39 PM »
...
Sulfate seeding? Population crash below 250 million? Leeeets take this discussion over to Consequences please?
Not sulfates; alluminium oxide, primarily. The latter is some ~4 times more effective than the former, does not produce acidic solution upon oxidation, and is relatively harmless otherwise at least to human species. The thing's dirt cheap, too - 'cause it, in fact, is one of main dirt's components, you know. Most standard civilian jet fuels are using at least one additive containing the stuff, i forgot what the particular function of the additive is. Keep your sarcasm - i am not part of hysteric crowd, nor am i part of coverup "noise" operations of the sort CIA is so good at; consequences are to be discussed calmly and seriously, without things you are sarcastic about (silly things and disinformation), but i am not a guy who can adequatelly participate in such a discussion. Plus, this is not the place - we (you and me) are already testing the patience of local moderators as it is. So - no, let's not discuss it. Not here at least.

Cheers.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2014, 12:53:27 PM by F.Tnioli »
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NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2337 on: July 22, 2014, 01:45:32 PM »
Ice will always have massive significance in the Earth heat cycle. Polar winter is 0 insolation for months on end, and lots of ice will always form in such conditions - and quite much will persist into at least early parts of polar day, doing its massive increase of local albedo

The statement was thought through.  Significance is a relative term.  As in “significant” relevant to other climatic factors.  The Arctic ice holds a balance today, it is not a brute force mechanism for regulating the climate, such as forestation of the majority of the planet; it is more a delicate and fragile mechanism which ebbs and flows, on an annual basis, depending on the environment around it.  Once that balance is tipped, other factors come into play which will overwhelm any signature from the Arctic.

My statement was postulating a time when Ice forms in December and vanishes in March.  Due to extreme SST caused by catastrophic loss of summer sea ice.  Of course ice will form.  I’ve always stated this.  You can’t have -100c air temperatures and no sea ice.  It is a long time since I’ve seen the demo of boiling water thrown up into -32c air.  It comes down as snow.  However even that ice will be an insulator.  Both holding and locking in the heat of the ocean.  Therefore in an extreme situation, the ice will never be more than a think skim over the surface of the sea.  Easily melted when winter comes towards an end and temperatures start to rise.

As for deniers and lifeboats?  It is not beyond our wit to live with the consequences we have created.  It is not beyond our wit to stop pouring fuel on the burning boat .  It is not beyond our wit to navigate the burning, holed and sinking boat from the tropical storm approaching.  All we have to do, to avoid the very worst of the impact, is to STOP.  Stop pouring fuel on the fire.  Stop knocking even more holes in the boat, especially below the waterline, stop pouring more and more people onto the sinking ship.  However to do that we need knowledge and action.

I live in a world of computing.  In computing we are well versed in the acronym FUD.  Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

The Deniers play on people’s fears for their immediate wellbeing.  They cast uncertainty on the figures which show the ship is sinking and cause the public at large to doubt the sincerity of those who bring the message.  After all, being the bearer of bad tidings has never been something well received.  Even by the most enlightened.

You fall into the callous mould of quoting statistics to show how bad it is and then state that the deniers fill their role in allowing the 350m to survive.  Let us postulate that without the deniers a huge global effort were to raise that 5% to 15%.  That is 700 million lives saved.  Or put the other way 700 million lives cost by denialism.  A heavy accusation to put on anyone’s doorstep.  Even if the rest of us caused the other 6 Billion.

Whilst I work to keep me and my family from the worst of the impact, I am also pragmatic.  My goal would always be to save the most lives possible.  The key to that is knowledge.  It is what dragged us out of the middle ages and sent us to the stars.

Meanwhile the area continues to decline even if the extent is stalling.  Not unusual at this time of year though as the freed ice starts moving around.  I’m still working on a post 2012 year, but I guess we’ll need to see the end of the 2015 Piomas to see if that holds true.  I’m looking for a Piomas anomaly trend like 2007/8/9/10 out of 2012/13/14/15.  Just to explain what I’m thinking.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2338 on: July 22, 2014, 01:47:50 PM »
The 06z gfs goes ape **** in the medium range.


Every run is bigger and warmer then the previous.

Huge ridge over the Pacific side.  Massive warmth.  Big time compaction





« Last Edit: July 22, 2014, 02:04:37 PM by Frivolousz21 »
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a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2339 on: July 22, 2014, 02:10:12 PM »
The ...
Very good. I feel it may be productive and very fruitful for both of us to discuss some of the things you mentioned in great detail. But it'd be further off-topic. I will try to contact you personally with on-subject response.

I hope you don't mind.
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6roucho

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2340 on: July 22, 2014, 06:43:47 PM »
Not proposing - stating. Yes, i am. No, not "dark forces", - there is no definite ethical evaluation possible; dumbing down of "average Joe" has its benefits in terms of survival of human and non-human species, - benefits and drawbacks too, of course.

Interesting thesis. I have to say this never occurred to me before.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2341 on: July 22, 2014, 07:23:17 PM »
The pattern from day 6 onward looks very bad and certainly worth keeping an eye on, but don't forget how many terrible forecasts at the 5-7 day range so far this summer have completely failed to materialise.
The Arctic is one of the toughest places for the models to accurately forecast.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2342 on: July 22, 2014, 07:23:42 PM »

Very good. I feel it may be productive and very fruitful for both of us to discuss some of the things you mentioned in great detail. But it'd be further off-topic.

I was thinking it was veering too far off topic too.  I did consider not pressing post.

I'll read and reply later.  Busy now.

I will try to contact you personally with on-subject response.

I hope you don't mind.

Of course not.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2343 on: July 22, 2014, 07:56:57 PM »
The 12z GFS is a bit more sloppy than the 06z but is still awful and after hour 180 to 240 it explodes a huge ridge over 2/3rd of the basin centered over the Beaufort.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2344 on: July 22, 2014, 09:50:24 PM »
Thanks, Chris, that's a great summary. The graphs are really helpful -- and they show just how variable each region is from year to year. I think that demonstrates that the local and regional weather patterns are a big factor in what will melt and when. Even 2012 had regions where it was slower than other years. And even 2014, which has so far had pretty mild weather, leads the pack in some areas.

I hope they give some longer term context on a regional basis.



Neven,

I don't see this as like 2013, the weather isn't the same. Yes with better melt and Fram export weather we'd see something more exciting. But as a post 2007 year this is certainly in that set and is adding to the data we can use for prediction, whether formal or just in terms of setting expectations.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2345 on: July 23, 2014, 12:48:16 AM »

Neven,

I don't see this as like 2013, the weather isn't the same. Yes with better melt and Fram export weather we'd see something more exciting. But as a post 2007 year this is certainly in that set and is adding to the data we can use for prediction, whether formal or just in terms of setting expectations.
Weather patterns aren't exactly the same, but both are not conducive to melting. And again, it seems to repeat the evidence that the start of the melting season is important when later in the season the weather flips.

On the other hand, I might be a little biased, because I still don't have the time and energy to properly report on the situation because of the eternal house building (that's how it feels, it'll be a year in two weeks). I don't mind an unexciting melting season that much right now.  ;)

What I do like to know, is what is going to happen volume-wise, especially with all that thicker ice in the core of the ice pack. If things continue like that, we won't be nearing ice-free conditions any time soon.

Of course, the Arctic might be of another opinion. With regards to that thicker ice in the middle of the ice pack, as well as with regards to how this melting season plays out. But first the forecast needs to consistently show weather that's more suitable to melting, and then we'll see if there's still a turbo button somewhere.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2346 on: July 23, 2014, 01:20:03 AM »
This week's edition of the interanual delta maps (using July 21) kind of demonstrates what Chris is saying. There is only two regions which have significantly less ice than the three "years for interest" which I've cherry picked (2007, 2012 and 2013 in that order), that is the far northern farm/NE greenland region and perhaps less surprisingly the northernmost portion of Laptev. In the other end of the scale, Barents and the part of CAB bordering this region is seeing the most pronounced increase. Interesting though that the apparent difference in concentration between 2013 seems fairly small despite this being the time where 2013 was closest to 2007 and 2012 in terms of SIA (and volume).
« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 01:28:18 AM by Rubikscube »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2347 on: July 23, 2014, 01:56:17 AM »
The pattern from day 6 onward looks very bad and certainly worth keeping an eye on, but don't forget how many terrible forecasts at the 5-7 day range so far this summer have completely failed to materialise.
The Arctic is one of the toughest places for the models to accurately forecast.

Model difficulties with pattern changes are the worst during the transition seasons and considerably better this time of year (when seasonal temperatures are stable (low dT/dt)). This changes in September. This year is a case in point: Verification scores in the medium range increased significantly by mid-June (over the previous month).

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2348 on: July 23, 2014, 04:25:32 AM »
The models are pretty sold on the warmup.

The crucial question is how long?
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2349 on: July 23, 2014, 09:07:38 AM »
The 00z models do not back down at all and unload on the Pacific side.






I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow