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Author Topic: The 2014 Melting Season  (Read 1290367 times)

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #50 on: March 17, 2014, 08:30:57 AM »
What's the weather forecast for next week?

Lord Vader has touched on some aspects. Here's the GFS temperature anomaly forecast for next Sunday...

Looks like a blowtorch starts Friday-ish from the Chikuchi across the ESS around to Svalbard.  Probability peak is hit in the next 3-4 Days?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #51 on: March 17, 2014, 02:55:35 PM »
Probability peak is hit in the next 3-4 Days?

Too late to save the University of Bremen extent domino  :-[

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OldLeatherneck

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #52 on: March 17, 2014, 03:10:15 PM »

Too late to save the University of Bremen extent domino  :-[

Speaking of crashing dominoes....this is ugly!

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #53 on: March 17, 2014, 05:10:16 PM »
I'm rapidly running out of dominoes!

NSIDC 5 day average extent is in at 14,832,000. A new maximum for the year  :-[
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #54 on: March 17, 2014, 08:02:58 PM »
A slightly cloudy view of some "cracks" that have opened up in the Laptev Sea over the last couple of days.
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ChasingIce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #55 on: March 18, 2014, 12:16:02 AM »
I'm rapidly running out of dominoes!

What metric defines your remaining dominoes?

opensheart

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #56 on: March 18, 2014, 12:39:48 AM »
Could the cold that builds up on the “Cold Continents” stay on the cold continents as long as they are cooling faster than the ocean?  Then as the northern hemisphere starts getting more solar energy, the continents are no longer cooling faster than the oceans, or perhaps start to reverse and warm up, the cold moves/spreads off the continents and onto the not so fast warming ocean.    Hence we see the pattern that the ice extent is sluggish through the whole freezing season until the end.   Then we see a sprint for the finish line and the ice extent grows significantly right at the end.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #57 on: March 18, 2014, 10:16:51 AM »
What metric defines your remaining dominoes?

My terminology derives from the watch the Arctic Sea Ice Blog kept during the 2012 melting season. See e.g.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/record-dominoes-1-uni-bremen-sea-ice-extent.html

If Wipneus releases the daily figures I might add his home brew AMSR2 area/extent to my list.

Failing that I reserve the right to clutch at any straw that might enable me to cover my embarrassment! My own custom metric perhaps?

"Calculating area and extent from gridded concentration data"

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Wipneus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #58 on: March 18, 2014, 11:15:55 AM »

If Wipneus releases the daily figures I might add his home brew AMSR2 area/extent to my list.


I have put this together:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt

Is it useful, can I do better? Let me know.

Alexander Beitsch has let me know that we can expect that all data we be reprocessed at some time, so all this is still prematurely and experimental.

crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #59 on: March 18, 2014, 12:22:58 PM »

If Wipneus releases the daily figures I might add his home brew AMSR2 area/extent to my list.


I have put this together:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt

Is it useful, can I do better? Let me know.

Alexander Beitsch has let me know that we can expect that all data we be reprocessed at some time, so all this is still prematurely and experimental.

There is a good chance that domino doesn't fall  :)  (but only because it starts in 2013  ;) )

Even dominoes for averages from 1 Feb seem likely to fall (unless they already have fallen?).

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #60 on: March 18, 2014, 12:25:48 PM »
I have put this together

It is exceedingly useful Wipneus. Many thanks yet again for all your hard work!

The preliminary nature of the data is understood.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #61 on: March 18, 2014, 01:10:51 PM »
A preliminary view of the open water north of 80 degrees today, courtesy of Aqua via WorldView:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #62 on: March 18, 2014, 08:06:24 PM »
A preliminary view of the open water north of 80 degrees today, courtesy of Aqua
The extensive open water north and west of Svalbard I've been aware of... But the extensive, highly fractured margin of the pack ice is new and disturbing.
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Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #63 on: March 18, 2014, 08:21:04 PM »
Wouaou, now I know why I am stuck on this forum, thank you so much.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #64 on: March 18, 2014, 10:55:11 PM »
Browsing through the image east from Svalbard, It looks like the fracturing is pretty consistent all along the Barents to the Kara Sea, and picks up in the ESS and around the new Siberian Islands. The ice already to be highly mobile across ~3000 KM of its margins in the eastern hemisphere.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #65 on: March 19, 2014, 04:30:23 PM »
Thanks Wipneus

pikaia

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #66 on: March 20, 2014, 12:13:06 AM »
The Icelandic volcano Hekla is threatening to erupt soon. Perhaps the ash will reduce the albedo of the Arctic ice and speed up melting?

http://www.newsoficeland.com/eco/item/405-hekla-volcano-might-eerupt-soon

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #67 on: March 20, 2014, 01:27:56 PM »
The AMSR2 view of the cracks visible in the MODIS image above, courtesy of the University of Hamburg:
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #68 on: March 20, 2014, 04:27:48 PM »
Going by the NSIDC data, the recent increases haven't been the largest on record for the time of year. 1985 beat this year comfortably, gaining 575k between the 9th and 17th.

Anywho, here are a few more graphs for the melt season.




JimD

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #69 on: March 20, 2014, 05:14:27 PM »
The Icelandic volcano Hekla is threatening to erupt soon. Perhaps the ash will reduce the albedo of the Arctic ice and speed up melting?

http://www.newsoficeland.com/eco/item/405-hekla-volcano-might-eerupt-soon

http://www.ibtimes.com/icelands-hekla-volcano-shows-activity-could-another-ash-cloud-ground-european-air-travel-1153669

Seems that its ash cloud is very unpredictable.  Sometimes the ash is shot very high and drifts far and other times there is hardly any and it does not leave the island.  Big eruptions that shoot ash high normally cool the atmosphere for a time.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #70 on: March 20, 2014, 08:46:12 PM »
I think we shouldn't focus too much on the maximum, which should be occuring either today or tomorrow, but rather look at the forecast for the rest of the month. What is appearent from Wipneus maps is that the ice have started to melt away at the southern tip of Greenland. The current conditions have also been very favorable for ice transportation at both Frem strait, Labrador sea, St Lawrence basin and Berings sea.. However, these conditions will start to deteriorate during the coming days.

First, a powerful cyclone seems to head for Okhotsk basin as for Berings sea. That will for certain affect the ice given how thin it is there.

Second, the huge ice transportation through Frem strait will also cease to operate next week and at +144h at the ECMWF a cyclone will head for Svalbard and we all know how thin that ice is.

Third, I'm rather sure that the ice at St Lawrence will be sloshed away next week as a nor' easter will smash the North American east coast with very windy conditions.

Finally, here in Sweden we have had some ice growth in the Bothnian bay the last days but warmer weather is in sight there. there have also been some ice growth in the Finnish bay but I think it will melt away quite rapidly during the coming week or so. And let's not forget the Great lakes.. These numbers are however very small...

As a last thing, compare Wipneus ice maps between march 14 and 19 at Svalbard... :)

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #71 on: March 21, 2014, 12:22:47 AM »
The AMSR2 view of the cracks visible in the MODIS image above, courtesy of....

Those cracks and low concentration are very disturbing to look at.  It looks like that already?   On the first day of spring?!

 :o
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #72 on: March 21, 2014, 05:57:47 PM »
I don't know where they keep their numbers, but the University of Bremen's extent graph now shows a noticeable recent decline:

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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #73 on: March 21, 2014, 07:18:13 PM »
Interesting post from Robert Scribbler:
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/03/20/a-siberian-heat-wave-is-breaking-kara-sea-ice-in-march-so-is-it-time-to-start-thinking-about-warm-arctic-rivers/

Quote
A Siberian Heat Wave is Breaking Kara Sea Ice In March, So is it Time to Start Thinking about Hot Arctic Rivers?

There’s a heatwave in Dickson, Russia today. But if you were standing on the shores of this port city on the Kara Sea in the far north, you might not realize it. The forecast high? 29 degrees Fahrenheit....

...Heat Wave Breaking up Ice in the Kara Sea

Such anomalous warmth is enough to put a heavy strain on sea ice. The ice freezes and melts at around 28 degrees F. So extended periods near or above this temperature can have an impact on ice integrity. The ice gets hit by warmer air even as it floats over warmer waters. It’s a kind of one-two punch that can be pretty devastating to sea ice integrity.

And we see just this kind of situation over the past two weeks in the region of the Kara Sea near Port Dickson.

Normally, this frigid ocean zone is covered in a stable sheet of ice called land fast ice. The ice is anchored to the land at various points and tends to remain solid due to reduced movement caused by grounding on the surrounding land features. When the land fast ice starts to go, it usually presages melt.

ChasingIce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #74 on: March 21, 2014, 07:33:52 PM »
I don't know where they keep their numbers, but the University of Bremen's extent graph now shows a noticeable recent decline:

NSIDC showed a drop for the 19th, so that may be it.  Do you know how often they update?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #75 on: March 21, 2014, 07:39:20 PM »
Daily NSIDC for the 20th is back up to a new high of 14,960,310. The Bremen chart says "Updated March 21st" at the bottom, but I snipped that bit!
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #76 on: March 21, 2014, 07:41:18 PM »
Interesting Chris!! :)

In my last post I forgot to say that I believe we'll see a very rapid drop in the SIE in the coming week or so. I wouldn't be surprised if we are back below 14 million square km before march 31... It will just say "pop" next week... :) What do you think people?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #77 on: March 21, 2014, 07:48:59 PM »
Major torching unfolding and still to come in the arctic.  With the dipole wind pattern this means ice will be rocketed pretty fast towards the Atlantic side/Fram while new ice forms along the shore to replace it. You can see it very clear on modis.




The other problem is Russian snow cover is in bad shape this year.

The Western half of Russia is in terrible shape.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #78 on: March 21, 2014, 09:58:47 PM »
Interesting Chris!! :)

In my last post I forgot to say that I believe we'll see a very rapid drop in the SIE in the coming week or so. I wouldn't be surprised if we are back below 14 million square km before march 31... It will just say "pop" next week... :) What do you think people?

I don't know. I find no relationship between low maximums and the following minimum. It seems reasonable to expect such a relationship because open water starts ice albedo feedback, and early open water should start the feedback early. I suspect that for the Pacific sector the Bering Straits represent a bottle neck that breaks such a process.

The possibility of an early start within the Arctic Ocean due to warm river waters seems like more of a likely factor in initiating a rapid start to the melt season within the Arctic Ocean. But typically that's May.

ChasingIce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #79 on: March 22, 2014, 05:54:14 AM »
Daily NSIDC for the 20th is back up to a new high of 14,960,310. The Bremen chart says "Updated March 21st" at the bottom, but I snipped that bit!
Then that leads me to believe they're not posting dailies, and instead are posting some sort running mean (2-day? 3-day?)

Wipneus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #80 on: March 22, 2014, 08:34:13 AM »
Jaxa/IJIS has ended an 11 day stretch of continuous increases. The attached difference map shows where (according to Jaxa L3 data) the extent increased and where it went down.
Increases mostly in the Barents section, of the low latitude regions Okhotsk more than St.Lawrence.



Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #81 on: March 22, 2014, 12:22:27 PM »
Thanks to the heads up from Lars over on the SMOS thread, here's a picture of the RV Lance near the ice edge north of Svalbard on March 17th:



Photo credit ESA/Matthias Drusch
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #82 on: March 22, 2014, 12:32:24 PM »
Looks as though we could see some significant losses next week.

The favourable conditions in the Bering sea have now gone, and have been replaced with a tendency for for mild southerly winds with high pressure setting up over the Beaufort sea and stretching south through Alaska. The same will be true for the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean regions next week, as high pressure over Scandinavia and the North Sea begins direct southerly winds over the region.

The change around the Bering straight can already be seen, with relatively mild upper air temperatures and generally slack or southerly winds pushing into the Chukchi sea.






Early next week, the Barents and Atlantic sector of the central Arctic joins in as blocking high over Scandinavia and the North Sea directs weather systems northward.



By 5 days out we have very mild air flooding the Arctic from both sides, in around areas with fresh/broken ice, ripe for melt and compaction.



Hints of a dipole pattern emerging, which, while not necessarily correlated with massive ice loss this early in the season, could certainly leave the pack in a very fragile state for the summer.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #83 on: March 22, 2014, 12:37:49 PM »
In my increasingly frantic search for an Arctic area/extent domino that hasn't fallen yet, I've been investigating Domino #5 - Arctic Basin sea ice area. Arguably the most important of all.

Here's the Cryosphere Today version of that metric:



The maximum was way back in December 2013, and it doesn't look like being breached any day soon.  8)

Here's another chart based on the preliminary AMSR2 data provided by Wipneus, which confirms that conclusion!
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crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #84 on: March 22, 2014, 01:15:43 PM »
In my increasingly frantic search for an Arctic area/extent domino that hasn't fallen yet, I've been investigating Domino #5 - Arctic Basin sea ice area. Arguably the most important of all.

Here's the Cryosphere Today version of that metric:

But does it matter that ....



1987 appears to still hold the record low maximum for that metric? !!! :o  :o  ;D

Buddy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #85 on: March 22, 2014, 01:37:44 PM »
Look what the El Nino did to the Arctic basin in 1998 - 1999 to the minimum.  Maybe a hint as to what would happen when the next super El Nino hits.....

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #86 on: March 22, 2014, 03:57:15 PM »
A nice clear view of the Bering Sea yesterday, courtesy of Aqua via NASA WorldView
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #87 on: March 23, 2014, 05:00:16 AM »
Jaxa/IJIS  down 122,970 in the last two days. Maybe finally turned the corner?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #88 on: March 23, 2014, 05:55:08 AM »
Models show a dipole pattern the next 10 days on.

There is going to be a lot clear sunny days over parts of the arctic with that big ridge over the Pacific side as well as the Southerly wind influx.

Bad for that side this early on.


Eurasian snow cover also looks horrible.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #89 on: March 23, 2014, 07:20:01 AM »
Major differences this year versus last year.  Very noticeable.



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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #90 on: March 23, 2014, 08:17:22 AM »
Both the GFS and EURO are terrible for the ice the next 10 days.

But the EURO is just horrible.

ABOUT AS BAD AS IT CAN ACTUALLY GET AT THIS POINT.

Massive Dipole anomaly.  Lots of solar insolation and flushing will take place.

It's obviously early and insolation is just reaching and passing 200W/M2 between 60-70 North. 


But given how consistently clear large regions of the arctic will be day in and day out there will be heavy doses of insolation reaching the ice pack between 60-70 North along the edges over the Pacific side. 

When you add this to the near constant off shore winds the established thicker ice will be pushed away and away while new ice forms but won't be able to explode in thickness at all. 


The Chukchi/Bering will see the ice breakup and start melting at least snow on top forming melt ponds during this period. Even with surface temps in the 20s to near freezing.

Expecially if what the Euro shows comes to reality.




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #91 on: March 23, 2014, 10:01:48 AM »
The most recent ECMWF has a really interesting "heat dome" at central Siberia in the end of the forecast period. And as someone just mentioned, the GBH seems to be under way pushing warmer air to the Labrador sea.. And yes, in of my earlier post I said I believed the ice would go "pop" but I should have been more clear there. The ice that will go "pop" is that is located in the Okhotsk sea, St Lawrence and partially around Svalbard. And the same will be true for the Great Lakes ice.. At least for the next week. If the GBH is coming true we'll see huge ice transportation.. Long term forecasts are often uncertain, especially those after 7-8 days but the GFS give also hints about a change in the weather patterns in North America with a HP in connection with the GBH..

The coming days forecast will be very interesting!! :)

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #92 on: March 23, 2014, 10:20:54 AM »


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

idunno

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #93 on: March 23, 2014, 11:21:06 AM »
About 150k of recent growth has been in Barentzs Sea...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html

This is pretty flimsy stuff, mostly less than 30cm thick...

http://www.arcice.org/php_files/get_file.php?file_name=20140320_itc_am.png&path=/ITC/

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #94 on: March 23, 2014, 12:53:59 PM »
Jaxa/IJIS  down 122,970 in the last two days. Maybe finally turned the corner?

A snippet of my comment over in another thread regarding IJIS/JAXA extent:

2014 maximum to-date: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March (NOTE: despite the fact that two of the past four years [2010 & 2012] have seen extent increases after this date large enough to set a new maximum were they to happen this year, the forecast says that's not likely, so I'll be not-all-that-brave, and call that this year's maximum. But I'll keep a pot of crow stew simmering on the back burner just in case.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #95 on: March 23, 2014, 01:47:14 PM »
I'll be not-all-that-brave, and call that this year's maximum. But I'll keep a pot of crow stew simmering on the back burner just in case.

Can I put my pot next to yours Jim? See http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg21702.html#msg21702
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #96 on: March 23, 2014, 01:51:15 PM »
But I'll keep a pot of crow stew simmering on the back burner just in case.[/i]

No need to put any stew on. Jim Hunt's had a pot simmering on the stove for more than a week.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #97 on: March 23, 2014, 01:54:45 PM »
About 150k of recent growth has been in Barentzs Sea...

Not forgetting the Bering Sea, plus Barents for reference:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #98 on: March 23, 2014, 01:56:14 PM »
I'll be not-all-that-brave, and call that this year's maximum. But I'll keep a pot of crow stew simmering on the back burner just in case.

Can I put my pot next to yours Jim? See http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg21702.html#msg21702

To avoid eating any of the stew at all--I've dined on much of it over the past few years, and developed a strong distaste for it--I was really going to wait until mid-April to make the call. But I figured that might be pushing the very definition of thrust-jawed courage. At any rate, you're far braver than am I.  ;)
« Last Edit: March 23, 2014, 02:02:08 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #99 on: March 23, 2014, 03:23:16 PM »
Thankfully there's no crow stew on the menu for anyone just yet!

NSIDC daily extent for March 22nd is down to 14,757,080. The 5 day average is down too, at 14,888,000 after peaking at 14,913,000 on the 21st:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein