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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #100 on: March 23, 2014, 04:32:10 PM »

Bering region yesterday versus one week ago.

Pretty big differences.


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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #101 on: March 23, 2014, 08:34:03 PM »
I'm not quite sure how to break this to you Jim, so I'll just come straight out with it.

CT area has crept up to a new maximum for the year of 13,487,337 km2
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #102 on: March 23, 2014, 10:30:34 PM »

The arctic has been substantially warmer this cold season versus the prior two.





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Jmo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #103 on: March 24, 2014, 12:33:45 AM »
Not sure how to interpret it, but it seems that 2014 is now the only year ever that mean daily temps haven't fallen below the long term mean for the entire year to date (comparing up to this date back to 1958). A regime shift appears to have occured, comparing recent years (last decade) with the historical data, according to DMI analysis.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #104 on: March 24, 2014, 07:55:47 AM »

The arctic has been substantially warmer this cold season versus the prior two.


"Substantial" is a bit of understatement.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #105 on: March 24, 2014, 09:12:19 AM »
That hot-spot in the northern Barents is quite eye-catching. And very persistent - wintertime anomaly is 5C+ for the last decade, and just getting bigger:



Does anyone know if there's been research/articles on this 'Barents Burn'? Or maybe any well-known explanations?


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #106 on: March 24, 2014, 10:25:24 AM »
A new ice mass balance buoy has appeared in the Beaufort Sea. Whilst I ponder what might have happened to A and B, I proudly present 2014C. It currently reports "All sensors OK"

Conditions at Deployment (3/20/2014):
Snow Depth: 20 cm
Ice Thickness: 177 cm

Current Buoy Data (03/24/2014):
Pos: 73.43 N, 136.74 W
Air Temp: -16.00 C
Air Pres: 1032.52 mb



The data for this latest buoy includes two mysterious new columns entitled "Water Rad" and "Atmos Rad". Whilst I work out exactly what they mean, here's my latest Ice Mass Balance Google map - IMB2014C
« Last Edit: March 28, 2014, 08:15:12 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #107 on: March 24, 2014, 03:55:28 PM »
By way of a change, here's Terra's view of the Laptev Sea today:

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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #108 on: March 24, 2014, 06:20:45 PM »
I'm not surprised that the SIE went down by a huge 170 00 km2.. The cyclone that passed by Okhotsk did a good job! By the end of this week another possible intense cyclone will make another hit to Okhotsk sea..

Meanwhile, the next area after Okhotsk to be hit by a powerful cyclone is St Lawrence in about 2 days or so.. GFS 12z run indicates that this area will be hit by a cyclone with a central pressure about 955-960 hPa which almost for certain will blow the ice away... If GFS12z holds there will also be warmer conditions coming early next week...

As I said in one of my earlier posts I believe that the SIE will be below 14 million km2 on monday 31...  8)


jai mitchell

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #109 on: March 24, 2014, 07:49:48 PM »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #110 on: March 25, 2014, 10:31:23 AM »
As pointed out by Tony over on the ASIB, NORSEX area has apparently fallen off a cliff. Here's their area graph up to March 23rd:

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #111 on: March 25, 2014, 10:59:24 AM »
As pointed out by Tony over on the ASIB, NORSEX area has apparently fallen off a cliff. Here's their area graph up to March 23rd:

I saw that, but figured this grey stripe was the culprit
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #112 on: March 25, 2014, 11:09:56 AM »
The Scandinavian equivalent for March 23rd appears to have all data present and correct though?



P.S. However Bremen SSMIS/F18 for the 23rd reveals this:



I think OSI-SAF combine assorted satellite data, but perhaps NORSEX is (as the title suggests) based solely on SSMI?
« Last Edit: March 25, 2014, 11:22:53 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #113 on: March 25, 2014, 11:21:36 AM »
The Scandinavian equivalent for March 23rd appears to have all data present and correct though?

You would certainly know better than I, I had trouble believing it so I guess I'm trying to rationalize it.  I trust you more than myself.   :)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #114 on: March 25, 2014, 11:28:30 AM »
I trust you more than myself.   :)

Have you seen all the crow stew I've been eating recently? I think I was adding my P.S. at the same time as you were typing your comment!

Maybe Wipneus can cast some light on matters with an AMSR2 area reading in due course?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #115 on: March 25, 2014, 12:11:58 PM »
It's most probably a glitch. Doesn't happen often with NORSEX, although the 2008 trend line has always looked dodgy to me.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #116 on: March 25, 2014, 12:22:29 PM »
Indeed SSMIS has some data missing on the 23rd. NORSEX appears to counts missing data as zero's while others fill in the data (from previous days or so).

Here is my map of Uni Hamburgs SSMIS data:

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #117 on: March 25, 2014, 01:07:47 PM »
Chris in comment #73, I appreciate what Robert Scribbler has posted on his blog, however the ice has been messy since January. It was fracturing across the Beaufort during that period and in the Laptev. I will post on that later, too busy at work for the moment.

Attached is a Beaufort image from January 28 to illustrate. Also attached is a CAB image from January 27 which gives a glimpse of major fracturing across the basin.

Jim, your Laptev image is pretty amazing, the offshore wind from Siberia has been creating these openings along the coast for while, making the ice pack farther out in the CAB fracture.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #118 on: March 25, 2014, 03:47:20 PM »
Whilst not showing such a precipitous decline as NORSEX, Cryosphere Today area definitely seems to have turned the corner. March 23rd came in at 13,323,590:

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #119 on: March 25, 2014, 05:09:44 PM »
78km/hr winds blowing down the fram straight today

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/24/1500Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-25.46,68.91,1025

Is it just me or do those overall wind patterns look strange?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #120 on: March 26, 2014, 10:05:34 AM »
That hot-spot in the northern Barents is quite eye-catching. And very persistent - wintertime anomaly is 5C+ for the last decade, and just getting bigger:



Does anyone know if there's been research/articles on this 'Barents Burn'? Or maybe any well-known explanations?
I am not sure how "well" known is this, - but it's known to me that
 - in the Arctic, there are massive methane clathrate deposits, methane gas "pockets" and lots of organic matter which release large amounts of methane when decomposed;
 - this particular place we talk about had to experience massive warming last decade as a result of greatly reduced (recent years - absent) ice cover during maximum insolation months (June, July);
 - this particular place possibly got even more warming if relatively nearby land mass sheds increasingly warm meltwater (average temperature) in increasing volume as years go by (which seems likely to me, considering overall Arctic amplification);
 - high local concentrations of athmospheric methane are likely to cause additional local temperature increase year-around - even without sunlight, methane, being relatively non-transparent at certain infra-red wavelengths, - slows down heat emission from the surface to space, returning some fraction of radiated heat back to the surface.

So, the only explanation i can think of - is that there are massive methane emissions in the region, which lead to this persistent anomaly locally, and contribute to higher-than-global-average methane content in the Arctic athmosphere, as well as to increase of global methane athmospheric content (proportionally, with time) just as well.

I would be very interested to see actual athmospheric methane measurements at this location. I haven't seen any, so far. I am not sure if such measurements were even done any systematically there.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #121 on: March 26, 2014, 10:16:50 AM »
I think the Barents anomaly is just a symptom of general AGW, the warmed North Atlantic drift keeping the ocean open on areas they've previously not been open. If one wants to connect the methane outbursts to something, i think it easiest to look for freezing period anomalies. In spring it's harder to say if a high anomaly is becouse of a common warm spell or methane, since in spring also the CO2 is high.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #122 on: March 26, 2014, 10:27:51 AM »
Apparently, there was no freezing in this area last winter. None to talk about, at least. Cryosphere today maps show no ice last november, last december, this january, this feabruary, and this march. If there is no freezing, can't talk about "freezing anomalies", you know.

The fact that this region does not freeze at all, despite some ice still forming on the northern side of western half of Novaya Zemlya - is imho significant. Makes one doubt this persistent anomaly has anything to do with remains of Gulfstream, you know.

edit: especially so since i see, on same maps, that north shore of eastern half of Novaya Zemlya had some 80%...100% ice cover in January 1983, and in January 1996 (just some random years to check) - while in the same time, to the north of WESTERN half of Novaya zemlya - ice cover during said years/months was much more similar to what we have seen this winter, - i.e. far lower than 80%. So it seems to me that general warming in the Arctic resulted in a significant decrease of winter ice cover to the north of western half of Novaya Zemlya, yes, - but to the north of eastern half of it, nearly complete ice cover just some 15...20 years ago went to be open water year-around nowadays.

Not methane? Then tell me, what else could it be?
« Last Edit: March 26, 2014, 10:38:45 AM by F.Tnioli »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #123 on: March 26, 2014, 11:13:37 AM »
Thanks for the possible explanations on the Barents anomaly. It likely is one of the biggest AGW signals that I'm aware of.

I've also been thinking maybe:
North Atlantic current
Changes in polar front / jet stream position
Methane
Changes in Under-ice circulation
...

The thing is, I hope somewhere someone is measuring, and has records of, the NA current speed and temperature profile with depth. Same goes for historic data on Jet Stream, methane, etc (I doubt whether there is much public data on under-ice currents, temps, etc). Because once we have solid data, we can start trying to explain why it happens.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #124 on: March 26, 2014, 11:41:12 AM »
Apparently, there was no freezing in this area last winter. None to talk about, at least. Cryosphere today maps show no ice last november, last december, this january, this feabruary, and this march. If there is no freezing, can't talk about "freezing anomalies", you know.

The fact that this region does not freeze at all, despite some ice still forming on the northern side of western half of Novaya Zemlya - is imho significant. Makes one doubt this persistent anomaly has anything to do with remains of Gulfstream, you know.

edit: especially so since i see, on same maps, that north shore of eastern half of Novaya Zemlya had some 80%...100% ice cover in January 1983, and in January 1996 (just some random years to check) - while in the same time, to the north of WESTERN half of Novaya zemlya - ice cover during said years/months was much more similar to what we have seen this winter, - i.e. far lower than 80%. So it seems to me that general warming in the Arctic resulted in a significant decrease of winter ice cover to the north of western half of Novaya Zemlya, yes, - but to the north of eastern half of it, nearly complete ice cover just some 15...20 years ago went to be open water year-around nowadays.

Not methane? Then tell me, what else could it be?

I'm afraid the explanation may be much more benign.

Persistent mild southerly winds, courtesy of strong upper level ridge over the area.





The question then becomes, why are there consistent southerly winds and upper level ridges over this area in recent years? It it the cause, or the result of sea ice loss? What else might be involved?

gerrit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #125 on: March 26, 2014, 02:22:12 PM »
Thanks BornFromTheVoid, that is the sort of clue I'm looking for.

I see the year-round anomaly is even greater than the winter-time anomaly, so the wintertime one is probably just the delayed freezing in the area.



This is also the spot in the world with by far the greatest temperature anomaly:



Probably created by southerly winds and higher pressure due to (by far) the greatest surface pressure anomaly of the last decade:



So maybe the next question would be - what is causing this huge pressure rise over Western Siberia? It is huge in terms of pressure anomaly and area.

But again, I'm sure we're not the first guys to notice it - I'm sure many climate scientists have worked on this before? But I don't find any references...

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #126 on: March 26, 2014, 02:24:44 PM »
(Sorry, I realise this Barents anomaly is off-topic... any suggestions where to move it?) My 'Melting Season' guess would of course be more melting in Barents and surrounds :)

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #127 on: March 26, 2014, 02:47:42 PM »
Fits in fine here, Gerrit. But I'm sure there are other threads out there on atmospheric changes due to or followed by changes in the Arctic. Wrt Barentsz the work of Judah Cohen and what's the other guy's name (Petoukhov?) comes to mind.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #128 on: March 26, 2014, 02:48:48 PM »
It is somewhat relevant. The pattern of the upper ridge over Barents is currently reversing, with cold northerly winds flooding the area recently and likely continuing periodically for the 10 days or so.





A late season increase in Barents ice is possible, but with the loss of thicker ice it's blown into the milder seas too.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #129 on: March 26, 2014, 03:34:13 PM »
March 20-25, strongly decreased ice extent. Animations on my blog show: Bering Sea and Okhotsk.
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/03/szybkie-topnienie-po-dugim-zamarzaniu.html


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #130 on: March 26, 2014, 07:34:46 PM »
Is that "Arctic Weather Forecasts" feature on CT something new, or am I just incredibly unobservant?


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #131 on: March 26, 2014, 08:40:04 PM »
I haven't seen it before either. Looks nice. There's been a lot of visually appealing weather (forecast) stuff coming out in the last year, like that Climate Reanalyzer by the U of Maine, and that animated Earthschool wind map.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #132 on: March 27, 2014, 12:17:47 AM »
"CT" launches data ice surface, for example, on March 26. But the data describe March 24, = 13 261 576 km2. This is a two-day delay. Am I right?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #133 on: March 27, 2014, 12:42:49 AM »
<Warning: Amateur post>

I've been watching average arctic winter teperatures, and like many others could't help but notice that this winter has been warmer than average. Looking back over the past 5 years I couln't help but notice that '07 '11 and '12 all had abnormally warm winters preceeding them too, with years of 'recovery' having much colder winters.

I have to understand a modicum of statistics for uni, but am nowhere near good enough to attempt any model of regression. Does anyone know who has performed analysis of this already?
Perferably with a comparison of early and late winter warmth.
With my mediocre anaylsis (I look at each graph and guess) it seems that a warm feb-march could portray a decrease in summer extent/volume.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2014.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2012.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2011.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2010.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2009.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2008.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2007.png

Open other end.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #134 on: March 27, 2014, 05:38:08 AM »
<Warning: Amateur post>

I've been watching average arctic winter teperatures, and like many others could't help but notice that this winter has been warmer than average. Looking back over the past 5 years I couln't help but notice that '07 '11 and '12 all had abnormally warm winters preceeding them too, with years of 'recovery' having much colder winters.

You're not the only one to notice that. The only other year I could find that stayed well above average throughout the winter and is qualitatively similar to this year is 2012. It's also interesting the similarities between that year's late jump in extent and this one's. I strongly suspect this may be another spectacular year for ice melt a la 2012 (but I'm not so confident to go out on a limb and make that a prediction for the record :) )

I'm not sure how one would go about trying to correlate the numerical data to later ice melt.You could try and numerically integrate the departure in temperatures from average over certain time periods (say, day 0-60) which will give a single number to compare later melt to. I'm just an amateur, too, but my intuition is that that integration should give a loose proxy for the amount of energy the atmosphere can conduct away over that period for ice formation. Try it for several different time periods just to see if any shows anything.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2014, 05:45:18 AM by prometheus »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #135 on: March 27, 2014, 07:25:59 AM »

Eurasian snow cover has been decimated the last week. 

We are now way below normal at this point.






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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #136 on: March 27, 2014, 08:03:43 AM »
...
Not methane? Then tell me, what else could it be?

I'm afraid the explanation may be much more benign.

Persistent mild southerly winds, courtesy of strong upper level ridge over the area.
...
Persistent so much those winds blow, without any noticeable pause, during all the last winter? Really? I didn't think it'd be possible for any place on Earth to have winds blowing from the same general direction (like, "south" in this case) for some 5+ months in a row.

But what do i know. If you say it's winds, i really, really hope it is winds. It'd be much better than a massive ongoing methane release, that's for sure.


edit: about snowcover. According to the map posted just above, snowcover near Moscow, Russia have disappeared during last week. Living in the area, i confirm the fact itself, however, it is important to note that this snow cover which was present ~week ago - was not all-winter snow cover, nor even month-long snow cover. Here in Moscow, snow cover was ABSENT most of the winter, - appearing after some cold spell, then lying around for several days, then being melt by a warm spell. We spent most of the winter here having no snow cover at all. Sure, there is heat island effect, but i think much of Eurasia was in the same mode of "snow cover for a few days then no snow cover for several weeks, rinse repeat" for most of this winter.

Nobody i ask can remember a winter like this in the area. Nobody.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2014, 08:20:06 AM by F.Tnioli »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #137 on: March 27, 2014, 08:33:18 AM »
Yep, persistent winds, in the higher atmosphere, blowing up the Atlantic, from approximately NYC to approximately the Kara Sea. Hastening the arrival of the Gulf Stream warmth into the Barents area.

Plenty of this over the last 3 months certainly. At lower latitues they also seem to me to have contribute to the UK's wet and Scandinavia's warm winters.


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #138 on: March 27, 2014, 09:11:10 AM »

Persistent so much those winds blow, without any noticeable pause, during all the last winter? Really? I didn't think it'd be possible for any place on Earth to have winds blowing from the same general direction (like, "south" in this case) for some 5+ months in a row.

But what do i know. If you say it's winds, i really, really hope it is winds. It'd be much better than a massive ongoing methane release, that's for sure.

The anomaly hasn't been consistently +5 or 6C, it's varied between slightly below average to 20C above. Just as the winds and upper level pattern has fluctuated some, but the mean flow is southerly, keeping the area relatively ice free and the anomaly very much positive.

For example, we're set to have plenty of northerly winds in the area over the next week and the temperature is set to move closer to average.


While the southerlies shift and Greenland seemingly undergoes a massive warmup, initiating a very early melt with temps above 0C in the west.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #139 on: March 27, 2014, 03:27:54 PM »
I see. Being some ~0...+20C surely seems much more like something which could be caused by winds, yes. Thanks!

I now wonder, is it that mainly-southern winds - is a new development in the area, or is it that direction of winds didn't change much any recently, - but air temperature did? I'd guess the former is the case, but not any sure... But if so, then may be we see a gradual appearance of the "new jet stream" system, somehow? I suspect changes in ice cover in the Arctic could lead to a very different shape/form/direction of polar air currents, including year-round ones. May be it's what we see here, then?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #140 on: March 27, 2014, 06:25:45 PM »
I've been trying to delve into that southerly wind anomaly over northwester Russia and Scandinavia. Before I say much more I should just like to add the <warning! newbie & amateur> disclaimer ;)

What it appears to be, is some big changes in the Siberian High (SH). The SH is the biggest regional HP in the NH, appears in September and disappears in April, and influences weather all around Asia. It has been shown that less Arctic Ice causes the SH to be stronger (the Warm-Arctic-Cold-Continent phenomenon). There is a prominent average pressure rise over Western Siberia as mentioned in my previous post, which gives the impression that the SH is regularly building further west than before. I've also seen mentioning of increased blocking highs over the Urals.

This extended high causes the southerly flow - clockwise flow around HP in NH. And steeper gradient between SH and Icelandic Low.

So it would then follow that there is some positive feedback going on - less ice -> stronger SH -> more melting in Berents and Kara.

Personally i think it is more a case of coupled variables, as the wintertime Siberian Cooling mechanism (radiation to space) is heavily effected by the radiative greenhouse gas (CO2) effect.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #141 on: March 27, 2014, 06:49:59 PM »
SIA maximum seems to be both later and lower than last year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png

What does this say about the approaching melt season>
« Last Edit: March 27, 2014, 07:21:08 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #142 on: March 27, 2014, 08:03:40 PM »
F.Tnioli


You might want to check the "What is happening under a cloud of methane" thread under "Permafrost" for some earlier discussion of the subject.


In Southern Ontario Canada we've had the harshest winter in some time. The warmth you've felt in Moscow has been absent here & consequently it's been difficult to bring Global Warming to anyone's attention.


Are people in Moscow questioning the advisability of drilling in the Arctic or is your government (like ours) attempting to downplay the downside of extracting and burning ever increasing amounts of fossil fuels.


Terry





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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #143 on: March 27, 2014, 09:50:27 PM »
Large size cracks in ice on Chukchi Sea

http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/03/szczeliny-w-lodzie.html
It is possible that this year, the ice will melt quickly.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #144 on: March 28, 2014, 03:25:45 AM »
One thing that looks a bit different between this year and last is the snow cover.   

Check out Scandinavia and the rest of Europe as well as northern China. 

http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm

I suppose the weather and the speed of snow cover loss during the next 3 or 4 weeks will be the real issue for any early melt resulting from warm(ish) river waters nibbling away at the edges of the sea ice itself. 


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #145 on: March 28, 2014, 05:03:51 AM »
Snow depth is much worse than last year as well.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #146 on: March 28, 2014, 06:41:54 AM »

The Kara/Laptev region is going to take a beating the next 7-10 days to compile the ice already being pushed out towards the central arctic/fram.

This is huge because when that thicker pack ice keeps getting sent out.  We can end up with hundreds of miles from the fast ice where the pack ice broke off or shore of new ice that will be thin and grow no where near as thick as the pack ice that was already there at this point.


On top of that it's only going into early April and that pattern will wreck havoc on the snow pack over central Russia.  If this pattern holds into May we will see the earliest and largest region of open water in the Laptev in our records.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #147 on: March 28, 2014, 07:02:15 AM »
F.Tnioli


You might want to check the "What is happening under a cloud of methane" thread under "Permafrost" for some earlier discussion of the subject.


In Southern Ontario Canada we've had the harshest winter in some time. The warmth you've felt in Moscow has been absent here & consequently it's been difficult to bring Global Warming to anyone's attention.


Are people in Moscow questioning the advisability of drilling in the Arctic or is your government (like ours) attempting to downplay the downside of extracting and burning ever increasing amounts of fossil fuels.


Terry
Thank you, i'll check that thread out.

As for people in Moscow - simple folk (the majority of the populace) here - are unable to connect the dots. I.e., they surely know "something is wrong" about weather, but they are unable to see that drilling in Arctic - is one of things which will make the weather worse. Most have no idea what the difference between weather and climate is, even. Few who are able to see the connection between drilling in Arctic and climate change, - are unable to talk any much about it in russian section of the internet, since there is much pressure from both official "science" on the subject (which, in Russia, is extremely denialist "for public"), and also from a number of commenters who seem to join any discussion of the subject to harass, insult, mislead and "kill by spam" any worthy discussion.

Few pieces about climate change i've seen on russian TV channels, - they are not any frequent, - are all denialist. Many are poorly made from the point of view of any informed scientist - lots of nonsense, - but are obviously "good enough" for most of general populace. I've seen some of my relatives believing those TV programs, an extremely sad picture. Of course, it has to do with the natural desire of people (often subconsious) to reject threatening-their-future facts and ideas. Psychological block, so to say...

I am not surprised about the heavy denial from the state, and active denialist propaganda and russian-internet "trolling" which is being done. Russia, so far, is one of most heavily fossil-fuel-based economies. Any large-scale movement against fossil fuels - is a direct danger to the state. It is not, nor will be allowed in this country, as long as there is federal government here (it doesn't even matter what kind of government - they all will keep pumping oil and gas, making coal coke and melting steel, exporting alluminium, etc).

In the same time, i am quite sure that there is lots of not-made-public scientific work and effort aimed to adapt and endure climate change, which is being done in russian Academy of sciences and corresponding scientific institutions of the country. The government knows that current state of affairs won't last. Relatively recent intensification of far-east development in the country is one of visible signs of large-scale preparations which are being done. It's just that most of the public is kept ignorant about true cause of such preparations, as well as about true scale. Yamantau complex may well be another part of such preparations, but i don't know for sure (there are several signs that it is, but i don't have complete proof).

You may then wonder, why exactly russian government allows to drill in russian sectors of Arctic. I believe, the answer is quite simple: demand defines. This means, if Russia will ban any drilling in Arctic (for "conventional" oil and gas extraction), - then existing demand for fossil fuels will result in more non-conventional extraction elsewhere, which will result in MORE emissions total, rather than less. Oh, and Russia will lose quite massive income, too. I don't think that it is a difficult choice in such a situation, especially under current leadership of this country (which is quite, how to say it... Pragmatic, i guess).
« Last Edit: March 28, 2014, 07:28:50 AM by F.Tnioli »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #148 on: March 28, 2014, 02:18:19 PM »
Not sure of the direct impact it will have on the cryosphere but Mr. El Nino is about to go ape ****.




This the warmest since 1979 at the least.  Even warmer than the sub surface build up to 1997.  Like it's pulling away from 1997 at this point that is how absurd it is so far.

Remains to be seen if it can become as established but the chances of a Super nino are becoming more and more favorable.


One thing is for sure.  Watts and Co are about to watch the global temp anomaly get decimated.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #149 on: March 28, 2014, 03:19:07 PM »

Eurasian snow cover is already in peril and again more rounds of deep fetch Southerly winds.  In combination with the exponentially increasing solar insolation are on their way.


This doesn't do it justice because it will be above normal further South.




Early on it it just straight up blow torch over Central Russia.  How about Fog, 33-34F with DPs at 33F.  That is a snow killer.






Then while it's not a balls out 2000 mile long Southerly torch.  It's still ugly as hell.

I am feeling 90% confident we are going to crush snow cover anomaly records this Spring.



To add insult to injury Canada gets totally smoked to over the Western half.  Getting that torch pathway ready to the Beaufort.




For every area that has lost it's snow cover it's albedo has dropped substantially.  Warming of the ground.  Drying the ground out.  Growing of the dark lush vegetation won't be far behind.

When those patterns bring in the WSW and SW and S winds over millions of KM of bare land versus what is supposed to be snow cover land.  The extra heat being carried further North creates a positive feedback to help melt out all of the snow as fast as possible.  The faster the snow melts.  The faster the ground thaws, dries up, turns lush and green and albedo plummets heat is trapped earlier into the solar max period and all of a sudden the NH upper lats around the ice are generating more heat than ever before in the lower troposphere that has one place to go.






I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow