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Author Topic: The 2014 Melting Season  (Read 1558810 times)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #200 on: April 03, 2014, 12:41:39 PM »
March to the Fram.

As a potential additional aid to measuring the "March to the Fram", IMB 2014D has just started reporting from the field. The other numbers don't seem to make a lot of sense yet, but the buoy is located a little way north of Kap Morris Jesup:

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #201 on: April 03, 2014, 01:08:47 PM »
Can you attribute some of the temperature differences (similarity) between 2012H temp profile (2013 May 1) and (2014 March 30th) to buoy location?

The buoys provide just an extremely small sample from an extremely large Arctic! As I said previously "It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like", or so it seems to me. The buoys start at different locations and follow different paths around the Beaufort Sea, but for what it's worth here are their locations on April 1st:

2010E - 76.7398 N, 145.0975 W
2012H - 76.0963 N, 140.2641 W
2013F -  74.8098 N, 152.7265 W
2013G -  75.3765 N, 159.7189 W

Click the links then click the pushpins for more detail.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2014, 01:14:33 AM by Jim Hunt »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #202 on: April 03, 2014, 01:32:48 PM »
Reduced snow cover, and its early disappearance this year - has massive consequences other than albedo reduction. Today, i found a news article (originally in russian - http://www.m24.ru/articles/41590 ), most of which i'll translate into english and put here, because i believe similar situation is now developing in other than Russia countries, and in other than Moscow regions - and not all of such countries and/or regions may be as well prepared for it, as Moscow region presumably is.

The news are:

"header: Moscow won't have water shortages, despite the lack of snowmelt water pulse this year
...
Press department of Moscow water channel says that specialists have managed to circumvent the absense of snow melt water pulses.

Usually, annual snow melt water pulse is filling Moscow's water-keeping locations, which provide water for Moscow. This year, there is practically no snow melt water pulse - mainly due to unstable weather and frequent change of warm and cold spells. This have led to changed conditions of snow melt - for example, maximum in-flow to "Moskvoretzky" water-keeping areas was below 100 cubic meters per second. For comparison, same measurement taken in 2013 - is 730 cubic meters per second.

However, Moscow water channel's specialists have managed to circumvent this, and fill water-keeping areas to 85% of planned amount.

Total volume of "Mokvoretzky-Vakuzsky" system is 975 millions of cubic meters of water, and this amount is sufficient to provide water for Moscow for a year.
"


Additional comment from me: not only it is obvious that availability of water is much affected in many regions as a result of reduced snowcover and chaotic snow melt, - it is similarly obvious that less or absent snow-melt water pulses will result in lower moisture content in the upper soil during the spring, and consequently less humidity, and higher vulnerability to drought in affected regions. Furthermore, vast subpolar areas which nowadays suffer this change of snowcover - will inevitably influence athmospheric events above and near such locations, and part of such athmospheric events will have direct influence on Arctic itself.

I definitely don't have enough knowledge to even guess what kind of influence (faster melt - or slower melt of surface sea ice?) this will be. Yet, i havea feeling that this must be a BIG issue.

P.S. As usual, the press doesn't care about it, though. Whether Moscow will have its water - oh yes, this is serious, this is worth a news article for sure. But whether Arctic will have its ice melt, or whether some place will suffer massive drought some time in the future - naaah, they don't bother, they probably don't even see any connection, eh... :(
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #203 on: April 03, 2014, 06:45:42 PM »
P.S. As usual, the press doesn't care about it, though. Whether Moscow will have its water - oh yes, this is serious, this is worth a news article for sure. But whether Arctic will have its ice melt, or whether some place will suffer massive drought some time in the future - naaah, they don't bother, they probably don't even see any connection, eh... :(

It seems typical that power and wealth, when concentrated in too few hands, regardless of nation, will manipulate perception and information such that outcomes suits both their desire and vanity. 

Eventually, this breeds both blindness and hubris; they come to believe in their own myth, and that somehow, they are immune to the consequences of their choices.  They are sadly mistaken.
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crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #204 on: April 03, 2014, 07:00:53 PM »
Would have thought that less time before the ground is unfrozen would be good news for farmers there.

Not sure why you expect "Press department of Moscow water channel" to talk about much else than Moscow water supply. Though there could well be a dearth of other articles as I haven't looked.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #205 on: April 04, 2014, 12:23:31 AM »
Would have thought that less time before the ground is unfrozen would be good news for farmers there.

Not sure why you expect "Press department of Moscow water channel" to talk about much else than Moscow water supply. Though there could well be a dearth of other articles as I haven't looked.

I suspect "channel" is a mistranslation and does not refer to a media outlet.

As to frozen ground, I suspect it is less about the soil itself and more about available catchment for water supply, and timing runoff capture and use.

You see that here in the Pacific NW ( and further south ) in our obsessive observation of mountain snow pack, and how fast it melts. To little snow, or too rapid a melt off can have similar dire consequences for the growing season.
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crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #206 on: April 04, 2014, 12:49:46 AM »
Would have thought that less time before the ground is unfrozen would be good news for farmers there.

Not sure why you expect "Press department of Moscow water channel" to talk about much else than Moscow water supply. Though there could well be a dearth of other articles as I haven't looked.

I suspect "channel" is a mistranslation and does not refer to a media outlet.

Yes, I assumed it was a press release by Moscow water 'company' reported by a media outlet. A thorough journalist might have wanted to add other interesting aspects but maybe one or both are state controlled and such are just reported as is for fear of inadvertently undermining/distracting from the information that the water 'company' wanted to convey.

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #207 on: April 04, 2014, 08:12:27 AM »
Mr El Nino is emerging...

I hope this animation loads correctly...



Queue the theme from Jaws?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #208 on: April 04, 2014, 08:19:25 AM »
... Not sure why you expect "Press department of Moscow water channel" to talk about much else than Moscow water supply. Though there could well be a dearth of other articles as I haven't looked.
"Channel" doesn't mean "news channel" or "TV channel" here; it is just literal translation of the name of the organization which manages Moscow water supply: "Moscow water channel". It is so named because the organization achieves its goals mainly by regulating water flows through artificial channels (water channels - dag through the ground) around Moscow. Then, this organization has a press department, which is to talk with any press company around - make press releases, answer journalists' questions, etc.

And no, i don't expect this company - "Moscow water channel" - to talk about anything else than their duties. I expect journalists who publicate messages from this company to talk about related things, though. Which they didn't.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2014, 08:25:57 AM by F.Tnioli »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #209 on: April 04, 2014, 10:12:13 AM »
Mr El Nino is emerging...

See also the detailed analysis over on "2014 El Nino?", where the answer seems to be a tentative yes!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #210 on: April 04, 2014, 10:31:37 AM »
Mr El Nino is emerging...

I hope this animation loads correctly...


Queue the theme from Jaws?

That's a slightly dated animation. Here's a newer one



Although there's a glitch in the most recent, the latest updates will be here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

lanevn

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #211 on: April 04, 2014, 11:53:26 AM »
One more report from Russia - 24000 buried radioactive objects can went to sea in near future because of arctic shore destruction (2-4 meters per year)

http://www.gismeteo.ru/news/proisshestviya/9273-poteplenie-ugrozhaet-radioaktivnym-obektam-v-zone-vechnoy-merzloty/

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #212 on: April 04, 2014, 03:47:41 PM »
It's slightly cloudy today, but some more cracked ice is visible on Worldview in the Laptev Sea:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #213 on: April 04, 2014, 03:58:34 PM »
lanevn,

I wouldn't worry about those, though. The report is about 24000 "solid radioactive objects" (i.e., pieces which are not in any liquid or gaseous form). And i am pretty sure all 24000 objects have density much higher than 1 ton per 1 cubic meter. This means, these things will sink to the bottom, and stay there.

Plus, considering the number, i bet most of those objects are not themselves containing radioactive fuel nor any significant mass of fission matherial. The report says it's about parts of nuclear-powered icebreaker "Lenin", K-27 submarine and "numerous" parts of atomic weapons. Most, if not all, of those pieces - are made of steel and other normally non-radioactive construction metherials (i bet that reactor cores were taken out and kept elsewhere, or recycled). Thus, we talk about secondary (induced) radioactivity, which those matherials now emit as a result of being in close proximity to fission matherials for a long time (in the past).

This is very similar to "machinery graveyears" near Chernobil, where thousands of vehicles and devices are buried.

Important thing is, secondary radioactivity is always times (usually hundreds to thousands times) weaker than primary radioactibity of fission matherials and unstable isotopes (like Cesium-137) of substantial concentration. This, plus the fact all those pieces will sink down to the floor of the ocean, plus the fact that the place is very distant to any significant agriculture and/or populated areas, - makes this issue completely insignificant to humans. As for the rest of Gaia, - i don't think it would do much harm, either. After all, most areas immidiate (in direct vicinity) from Chernobil #4 reactor - are now teeming with wild life.

Why Gismeteo would publish this piece - is an interesting question to which i have 3 possible answers, none of which is argumented enough to share it here, besides, it'd be totally offtopic, too. I just would say that true purpose of the publication - in this case, - is definitely not its face (literal) meaning.
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lanevn

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #214 on: April 04, 2014, 04:25:10 PM »
I didn't worry about radiation, ofc only during from Fukushima ocean got x1000 or maybe x1000000 radioactive materials. But shore erosion speed impressive. And it looks that Russia official structures really monitoring situation in arctic, just without public discussion (What could they offer anyway?).

P.S. Gismeteo reprint everything with relative keywords, often without source links. It can be article from climate sceptics and next article from climate alarmists ).

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #215 on: April 04, 2014, 07:09:52 PM »
ENSO updated again and is even warmer.  This is nuts.

Damn.

OHC is up to 1.7C+ from 1.525C+ last week.  Just crazy.


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icefest

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #216 on: April 05, 2014, 03:13:22 AM »

Plus, considering the number, i bet most of those objects are not themselves containing radioactive fuel nor any significant mass of fission matherial. The report says it's about parts of nuclear-powered icebreaker "Lenin", K-27 submarine and "numerous" parts of atomic weapons. Most, if not all, of those pieces - are made of steel and other normally non-radioactive construction metherials (i bet that reactor cores were taken out and kept elsewhere, or recycled).

No. There's actually several reactors and a lot of high level waste out there.



The Lenin
In February 1965, there was a loss-of-coolant accident. After being shut down for refueling, the coolant was removed from the number two reactor before the spent fuel had been removed. As a result, some of the fuel elements melted and deformed inside the reactor. This was discovered when the spent elements were being unloaded for storage and disposal. 124 fuel assemblies (about 60% of the total) were stuck in the reactor core. It was decided to remove the fuel, control grid, and control rods as a unit for disposal; they were placed in a special cask, solidified, stored for two years, and dumped in Tsivolki Bay (near the Novaya Zemlya archipelago) in 1967.

...and K-27 may eventually re-achieve criticality. It filled with bitumen and sunk. The reactors had partly melted down. http://rt.com/news/k-27-submarine-arctic-oil-040/
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #217 on: April 05, 2014, 05:42:09 AM »
Apparently the waste is stored 500 meters below the surface, it should take quite some time for this region to become completely thawed but it still means that this was only a temporary solution to begin with.
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Hubert

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #218 on: April 05, 2014, 11:56:56 AM »
@frivolousz21
The reason - global warming - heat accumulation 500 meters below the ocean surface. Heat comes to the surface. Let us remember that it is already 400 ppm of CO2. In the end anything happens.
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #219 on: April 05, 2014, 12:53:23 PM »
The melting season is here with a thunder! Even if we aren't seen any sharp decrease in ice extent there is a considerable melting around the Arctic periphery now. The reason for why SIE isn't decreasing is due to the dispersed ice in the region of Svalbard which is compensating for the losses in Okhotsk, Berings, Labrador and St Lawrences area... Once the northerlies are replaced with southerlies we'll see a vertical limit to the SIE numbers.. How about that people? Reasonable or ::)?

wili

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #220 on: April 05, 2014, 01:26:07 PM »
lanevn (neven's in LA now? ;D) wrote: "One more report from Russia - 24000 buried radioactive objects can went to sea in near future because of arctic shore destruction"

Might some of those end up on the floor of the ESAS and help destabilized methane hydrates?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #221 on: April 05, 2014, 01:43:49 PM »
The reason for why SIE isn't decreasing is due to the dispersed ice in the region of Svalbard which is compensating for the losses in Okhotsk, Berings, Labrador and St Lawrences area...

Seems reasonable to me Lord M. My last forlorn domino seems to have fallen  :-[

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #222 on: April 05, 2014, 04:09:01 PM »
Actually is has been the Greenland Sea that has increased this past week most. Ice is massing to the Fram exit and it shows.
St.Lawrence, Bering and Okhotsk regions has lost extent and area. Baffin actually a small increase (by extent).

Details (Jaxa AMSR-2 L3 data) in 1000 km2:

#### EXTENT DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140403-20140327 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   20.2                     0.3                     1.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    3.8                    19.4                    66.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   14.1                   -54.8                     5.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.8                     0.2                    -1.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                  -49.4                   -87.5                   -60.4

#### AREA DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140403-20140327 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -21.9                    -8.9                   -17.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.9                    15.5                    55.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -2.4                   -35.6                   -15.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    8.2                     2.2                     3.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                  -73.1                   -62.2                  -154.3


And a difference map for past week:


Hubert

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #223 on: April 05, 2014, 04:27:31 PM »
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/zwieksza-sie-zasieg-lodu-na-morzu.html
Labrador Sea ice coverage increases. (animation at the link). Decreases while the concentration of ice. Two satellite images (in the link). It was the same in 2012. This is one of the similarities. Replay of the summer of 2012? In my opinion, the more and more likely.



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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #224 on: April 05, 2014, 09:35:33 PM »
Just posted a blog post relevant to this thread:
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/2014-large-myi-export-into-beaufort.html

Concerning the large export of MYI into Beaufort as seen in Drift Age Model (and for that matter ASCAT)...

Quote
This suggests to me that while this melt season will see probably a large volume loss as this older thicker ice is thinned and subjected to lateral melt, a total melt out in Beaufort, Chukchi, and possibly as far as the East Siberian Sea, is looking unlikely. I suspect we may see persistent low concentration ice in those regions by late summer.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #225 on: April 05, 2014, 10:29:35 PM »
Concerning the large export of MYI into Beaufort as seen in Drift Age Model (and for that matter ASCAT)...

And for that matter IJIS RGB:



As I mentioned over at Dosbat, the ice between the Pole and Svalbard doesn't look very substantial at present. What are the odds on being able to jetski to the North Pole come September? Without the aid of an icebreaker!
« Last Edit: April 06, 2014, 01:16:28 AM by Jim Hunt »
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #226 on: April 05, 2014, 11:04:21 PM »
Jim,

If you mean weaving between a mess of small floes with channels of water between them - it seems entirely feasible. Conditions on the Atlantic side are very similar to 2012 (Feb PIOMAS).

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #227 on: April 06, 2014, 12:14:02 PM »
Conditions on the Atlantic side are very similar to 2012 (Feb PIOMAS).

A mess of relatively low concentration small floes is indeed what I has in mind.

Here's the April 5th comparison on ASCAT. 2014 is on top. No doubt somewhat subjectively on my part, the entire "Laptev Bite" area looks darker to me this year:



Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

icefest

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #228 on: April 06, 2014, 12:32:06 PM »
Have you seen the 'Nares Bite' in 2014. I think that looks much more frightening.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #229 on: April 06, 2014, 12:38:46 PM »
Have you seen the 'Nares Bite' in 2014. I think that looks much more frightening.

If this is what you had in mind, then yes:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #230 on: April 06, 2014, 01:52:20 PM »
Shock news from (near) the North Pole:

Quote
Saturday, April 5 Barneo – Iridium call from Jamie Morison

The NPEO team  now has their own hut, complete with heat, light and power.  Much of the effort today focused on surveying the floe for the best buoy locations.  Most of the camp area is only 1.4m thick.
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Hubert

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #231 on: April 06, 2014, 03:25:29 PM »
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/arctic-news-zwodniczy-przyrost-lodu-i.html

Posted animations of ice thickness changes. HYCOM is now active. 26.03-05.04 was not. Change is large.


Go hiking on the ice - it's certain death. That is my opinion.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #232 on: April 06, 2014, 03:33:12 PM »
Jim, I'm not surprised! Not at all given how thin the ice was last year. Hadn't it been for the cold summer I believe we would have seen an virtually ice free North Pole already in august 2013... The question is whether this will occur this year or if we have to wait a few more years...

So far there are no signs of a negative AO which seems to be positive for at least one more week...

//LMV

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #233 on: April 06, 2014, 04:02:00 PM »
@Hubert - I remain to be convinced that there is in fact 3.5m plus thick ice over most of the Beaufort Sea as indicated by ACNFS. It is only a model after all, and one that doesn't assimilate thickness.

@LordVader - I'm not surprised either. Here's a snapshot from the end of August 2013:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Hubert

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #234 on: April 06, 2014, 04:32:40 PM »
@ Jim Hunt
So the thickness of the ice in practice is worse? In the Beaufort Sea ice is a lot of cracks. So areas ice can be very thin. Are there other maps of thickness? other model

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #235 on: April 06, 2014, 05:50:18 PM »
So the thickness of the ice in practice is worse? In the Beaufort Sea ice is a lot of cracks. So areas ice can be very thin. Are there other maps of thickness? other model

I conjecture the Beaufort may be "worse" as in thinner on average.

Wipneus' SMOS - http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,587.msg23416.html#msg23416

CryoSat 2 from the Alfred Wegener Institut or from ESA:



TOPAZ sea ice thickness - http://view.myocean.eu/ViewService/?record_id=met.no/96424

Chris's PIOMAS thickness

Wipneus' PIOMAS thickness:
« Last Edit: April 06, 2014, 06:14:39 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #236 on: April 06, 2014, 06:28:50 PM »
Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #237 on: April 07, 2014, 01:06:43 PM »
Another look at a small corner of the Laptev Sea that still seems to be falling apart instead of refreezing. This one's using Terra bands 7-2-1:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #238 on: April 07, 2014, 02:37:13 PM »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #239 on: April 07, 2014, 04:42:24 PM »
To use Chris Biscan's favorite term, GFS and the other models show the Arctic being "torched" starting on the 12th/13th and continuing as far as the models can see...

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #240 on: April 07, 2014, 07:00:08 PM »
I'm pretty confident that CT SIA has peaked this year so here's a graph of progression of maximums. no conclusions but that the maximum has decreased pretty steadily until 2004 where there's a drop to current levels. The cause is extremely likely global warming and specifically the Arctic amplification that is a part of general global rise of temperatures.

(modified a bit later) for fun, checked what happens if the arctic keeps repeating this linearish pattern of decreasing maximums. This would mean that in ~550 years the Arctic would be completely freed of sea ice (of natural sea ice that is.). Then I guess what's left in Greenland would not anymore be of any concern. Given that summer sea ice is decreasing a bit faster than that, I wouldn't be surprised if this happened earlier.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2014, 07:44:12 PM by Pmt111500 »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #241 on: April 07, 2014, 07:21:38 PM »
I'm pretty confident that CT SIA has peaked this year so here's a graph of progression of maximums. no conclusions but that the maximum has decreased pretty steadily until 2004 where there's a drop to current levels. The cause is extremely likely global warming and specifically the Arctic amplification that is a part of general global rise of temperatures.

But why 2004????    ;)

Genuine question - I don't know why there was that drop.

ktonine

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #242 on: April 07, 2014, 07:46:58 PM »
I'm pretty confident that CT SIA has peaked this year so here's a graph of progression of maximums. no conclusions but that the maximum has decreased pretty steadily until 2004 where there's a drop to current levels. The cause is extremely likely global warming and specifically the Arctic amplification that is a part of general global rise of temperatures.

But why 2004????    ;)

Genuine question - I don't know why there was that drop.

From the abstract to
Comiso J C 2006 Abrupt decline in the Arctic winter sea ice cover Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L18504

"Although the Arctic perennial ice cover has been on a rapid decline, the winter ice cover had
been unexpectedly stable. We report and provide insights into a remarkable turn of events, with
the observation of record low ice extent and area during the winters of 2005 and 2006. Negative
ice anomalies in these years are prevalent in the peripheral seas but are most dominant in the
eastern Arctic basin where the perennial ice becomes even more vulnerable to further decline.
Overall, the winter ice anomalies correlates well with surface temperature anomalies and wind
circulation patterns. Since historical satellite data indicate a positive trend in winter temperatures
and a negative trend in the length of ice growth period it is likely that the winter ice cover will
continue to retreat in the near future. Results suggest that the expected warming impact of
greenhouse gases is becoming apparent in the Arctic during the dark winter months.


Chris, I seem to recall discussing this paper a couple of years ago.   But there have been so many I could have it confused with another.  I was expecting a Kwok paper actually.  I'm sure he must have written on it as well.  Probably in relation to movement through the Fram.

kto

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #243 on: April 07, 2014, 07:53:03 PM »
I'm pretty confident that CT SIA has peaked this year so here's a graph of progression of maximums. no conclusions but that the maximum has decreased pretty steadily until 2004 where there's a drop to current levels. The cause is extremely likely global warming and specifically the Arctic amplification that is a part of general global rise of temperatures.

But why 2004????    ;)

Genuine question - I don't know why there was that drop.

I don't know, just guessing that it was when Bering Sea or Barents Sea (alternate years) developed inconsistency, being the first ones to recieve heat from south.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #244 on: April 07, 2014, 09:23:50 PM »


Volume trend at max looks fairly linear, slight acceleration seems likely but not as likely as in minimum and there is a bit of noise.

No sign of a volume drop cause to the 2004 area fall.

What is wrong with drawing a straight or slightly accelerating line through the area data? Is saying the rest is just indistinguishable from random noise reasonable? If not, why not?

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #245 on: April 07, 2014, 09:42:19 PM »
Kevin,

Thanks for that, I don't think we've discussed that one - wasn't the Comiso paper the one with the 6 or 7 (?) year cycle in MYI - Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover - one of us emailed Dr Comiso but he hadn't looked into it further...

I don't think I've seen that paper and it's not in my collection. Thanks for bringing a plausible answer forth so quickly - I posed the question and did no digging because I was being a bit lazy.  ;D

Crandles,

Looking at what the residuals would look like - in both winter and summer they start low, go high in the middle, and end low - which suggests to me linear (ax + b) is not the best function to fit. Surely the sign that the fit is well chosen is stationarity in the residuals?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #246 on: April 07, 2014, 10:11:59 PM »
And what role did this play in 2007?

Comiso et al. "Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover" notes:
Quote
The 2007 Arctic ice cover was comparable to the
2005 and 2006 ice covers through mid-June but then began
a more precipitous decline

In "Sunlight, water, and ice: Extreme Arctic sea ice melt during the summer of 2007" Perovitch et al state:
Quote
There was an extraordinarily large amount of ice
bottom melting in the Beaufort Sea region in the summer of
2007. Solar radiation absorbed in the upper ocean provided
more than adequate heat for this melting. An increase in the
open water fraction resulted in a 500% positive anomaly in
solar heat input to the upper ocean, triggering an ice–albedo
feedback and contributing to the accelerating ice retreat.
The melting in the Beaufort Sea has elements of a classic
ice–albedo feedback signature: more open water leads to
more solar heat absorbed, which results in more melting and
more open water.

And in "The role of Pacific water in the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007" Zhang et al state:
Quote
the Pacific water inflow in September 2007 is about 0.5 Sv or 50% above the 2000−2006 average. The strengthened warm Pacific water inflow carries an additional 1.0 × 1020 Joules of heat into the Arctic, enough to melt an additional 0.5 m of ice over the whole Chukchi Sea. In the model the extra summer oceanic heat brought in by the Pacific water mainly stays in the Chukchi and Beaufort region, contributing to the warming of surface waters in that region. The heat is in constant contact with the ice cover in the region in July through September. Thus the Pacific water plays a role in ice melting in the Chukchi and Beaufort region all summer long in 2007, likely contributing to up to 0.5 m per month additional ice melting in some area of that region.

So not only was ice albedo feedback warming the ocean but also the AD was drawing in warmer Pacific waters adding to melt.

Zhang et al in "What drove the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007?" find that
Quote
It is found that preconditioning, anomalous winds, and ice-albedo feedback are mainly responsible for the retreat.

The anomalous winds being the AD. - as I understand it.

And Bluthgen et al, in "Atmospheric response to the extreme Arctic sea ice conditions in 2007" find that:

Quote
The most pronounced feature of the SLP response is a
low-pressure anomaly over the eastern Arctic (0°E–180°E).
The anomaly resembles part of the anomalous Arctic SLP
dipole pattern, which contributed to the extreme summer sea
ice anomalies of 2007 and 2008 [e.g., Wang et al., 2009]. In
an adjoint sensitivity analysis for the September sea ice
extent in 2007, Kauker et al. [2009] found that SLP in May
and June contributed most strongly to the sea ice extent
anomaly in September. Here, we find that the SIC and SST
anomaly associated with the sea ice retreat themselves force
a similar atmospheric response later in the year (JAS) that
thus is suitable to prolong the SIC anomaly by promoting
sea ice redistribution from the eastern to the western Arctic.


The atmospheric model results and the indication of
positive feedbacks between sea ice anomaly and atmospheric
circulation is intriguing as it might provide an
explanation for the recent eastward migration of the low
pressure center from Iceland into the Siberian Arctic [Zhang
et al., 2008b]

In other words: 2007 was due to an atmospheric pattern (AD) that was reinforced by the retreat of sea ice. That is what has happened in the other post 2007 years (except 2013 - delayed melt that year).

But to what degree did the abrupt decline in winter sea ice cover in 2006/2005, described by Comiso, prime the 'system' for 2007 and the following years to happen?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #247 on: April 07, 2014, 10:41:33 PM »
I don't think I worded my previous answer well. Certainly with the low noise of the volume graphs, a downward acceleration is more likely than linear. Chance of 7 at one end being below linear, 7 at other end being below linear and all but 1 or 2 in middle being above linear by chance is extremely remote.

The data for max volume is less clear than with minimum volume. Also with maximum volume I am less sure I would want to bet on future downward acceleration. With just the data, you might think downward acceleration is a better bet but there could easily be other arguments. E.g. decline in MYI volume might begin to run out so that a deceleration in future might be possible. So there is a big difference between extrapolating trends and trends for the period and I should avoid confusing these.


I think viewing volume as well as area helps inform the choice of trend and a downward accelerating trend seems more likely to be appropriate for the area data after viewing the volume data.


The question was mainly about the 2004 drop in area. What I am suggesting is that while the drop from 2003 to 2006 is larger than for any other 3 year period, it is not hugely greater than the area fall from 1993 to 1996. There is bound to be a largest 3 year drop at some point in the data and this one isn't that much bigger than the next largest. Therefore random variations seem quite plausible as an adequate explanation for the 2003-2006 area fall. That doesn't rule out there being a different explanation but it isn't clear that this is a problem that requires an explanation other than random noise. But feel free to correct me.


What happened in 2007 doesn't strike me as a likely explanation for 2003-2006 area fall at maximum. Maybe the reverse though?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #248 on: April 08, 2014, 09:36:38 AM »
I gave some thought about future "shapes" of those graphs few years ago, crandles. My guess is, summer (minimum) extent has downward acceleration and will keep having it all the way to (near) zero minimum extent, the reason for this - is consideration of main forces which cause the process.

I mean, let us see, what exactly forces the process of decreasing annual minimum sea ice extents? AFAIK, it is those forces:
 - greenhouse gases increase
 - warmer water and air entering Arctic from the south
 - decreasing (as a result of earlier and larger melts) albedo
 - massive amount of sunlight during summer in Arctic (polar day - sunlight 24/7)

Now, as far as i know, all except the 4th - are increasing in power as years go by. CO2 levels are rising with acceleration, methane release in Arctic itself is also accelerating, SSTs in "south" are rising with acceleration, loss of albedo in Arctic and subpolar regions - is also accelerating. The last force - sunlight, - remains nearly constant.

So, in total, forces which cause decreasing annual minimum sea ice cintent in Arctic - are getting stronger not linearly, but with acceleration. And since we know the end result _can_ be zero summer ice in Arctic - i don't see any large reason why the downward acceleration on the graph for minimum annual ice extent could stop. It should remain.

Accordingly, since there can't be much volume if the extent is zero, - the same (downward acceleration) dynamic will remain to be present on minimum _volume_ graphs for Arctic sea ice.

Which means we'll definitely see ice-free summer (late summer, first) in Arctic in a few years. May be 2015 or 2016.

However, maximum extent is not the same. I believe that present "downward acceleration" on maximum winter extent graph - will remain for some time, but the acceleration will at some point start to decrease, and reach 0. The reason for it - is polar night. See, from purely practical, every-day experience we all know that in subpolar regions (places not so far from 60 degrees north latitude), - lakes during summer can get quite warm, but during dark (very little sunlight) winters, - ice forms despite high summer water temperatures.

Good example is lake Baikal. It's a huge mass of water. During summer, with lots of sunlight, surface water temperatures in Baikal are: in the middle of the lake it's 14...15°C (august), in shallow bays - some 18...22°C. Yet, whole lake freezes every year by January, and remain mostly frozen (surface) till May.

I expect the same to happen in much of the Arctic, threfore, maximum (winter) sea ice extent will stabilize at some significant figure. The "downward acceleration" which we can see for maximum ice extent graphs today - will disappear, and then, deceleration trend will start. Further very small long-term reduction in maximum extent will probably be (due to on-going global warming), of course, but i think maximum extent will remain nearly stable.

Maximum volume, though, will keep its downward acceleration for much longer, i guess. It takes very thin ice to count an area as "a part of ice extent", and with ice being lighter than water, thin "skin" of ice can stay on top of much warmer (than -1.9°C, which is frezing point for sea water) water. I think it all starts with snow: without sunlight, athmosphere gets into negative celsius temperatures, snow forms, snow falls to the Arctic ocean, and even if the water is very warm, - melt snowflakes form a very thin layer of low-salinity water, which freezes easier than sea water. This, very thin, surface layer of low-salinity water emits IR radiation and also loses heat by convection (since the athmosphere is colder), which inevitably leads to ice formation. Even if water below it is much warmer. The warmer the water is, the slower is ice growth. Surfaces waves is a big factor when present, too. But, even with waves, it just needs "enough snow" to form thick enough layer of less-salinity (and thus, less-density) water for freezing to eventually overcome the heat of deeper (and possibly much warmer, but also high-salinity and thus more dense) layers, and thus form some thin surface ice. And then it's a matter of equilibrium between how much heat deeper layers are still (slowly) transporting to the surface - which is a force preventing further freezing or even melting some ice from-below, if intense enough, - and how much energy is lost from the ice surface via convection (to a very cold athmosphere) and IR radiation.

So, winter freezing in terms of _volume_ will continue to be slowed and decreased by those 3 accelerating forces mentioned above, and maximum volume will continue to be decreased in more or less linear manner for at least several decades, i think. GHGs are important even during polar night, since they trap heat which Earth emits; albedo loss is still important even without sunlight due to its "delayed" effects - higher heat content of water columns, (shallow) sea floor and shores; air and water currents keep going during winter, some from the south, too.

« Last Edit: April 08, 2014, 09:58:17 AM by F.Tnioli »
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Buddy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #249 on: April 08, 2014, 12:03:50 PM »
<<Which means we'll definitely see ice-free summer (late summer, first) in Arctic in a few years. May be 2015 or 2016. >>

Yes.  In TOTAL agreement.  In fact....I have said for two years now.....that most of the ice will be gone by September of 2016 (with the exception of a "swath" of the last MYI that is off the north coast of the Canadian Archipelago over to the northern coast of Greenland).

All the LONG TERM FORCES are still in place.....and getting worse.  It truly is basic math and basic science at this point.

More and more people are beginning to see that......and the number will increase as the ice melts in the Arctic.

And it will become increasingly clear that some people and organizations have been lying about climate change.......like FOX News, Joe Bastardi, Anthony Watts, fossil fuel companies, etc.  Their "clothing" is being stripped from them.....and will continue to be stripped as the obvious truth unfolds in front of us.  The truth NEVER leaves.....it just waits until it is discovered.

This melting season will be a "turning point" if the melt comes close to the prior record low.....or sets another new record low.

The basic science and math are not going to change.  It is CLEAR what will happen over the intermediate and long term.   
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."