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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1150 on: June 11, 2014, 06:50:57 PM »
That would be my guess too Chris.

Meanwhile the East Siberian Sea is yet another area revealing more open water than at this time last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#ESS

Pevek is forecast to be 12 °C tomorrow.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2014, 06:56:08 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Blizzard_of_Oz

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1151 on: June 11, 2014, 06:56:20 PM »

From the timeseries plot I estimate 29/7/14 extent to be just below 6.75M km^2. Here are the years from 2007 to 2012 (NTA data only to 2012) for 29/7/14 extent, with Dr Slater's prediction for 2014 inserted where it fits....

The numbers you perhaps should be looking at are in the top right hand corner of the maps.
The time series plot includes some smoothing for the sake of viewing and is not the ideal place to extract numbers from.

I have been a bit unclear here - the numbers on the maps are not the official "NASA Team" total Arctic extent, rather they are the summation of grid areas with +15% concentration from the NASA Team concentration map (e.g. the pole-hole area is not included and the filtering of other areas may be slightly different from the official product). For prior years, the verification value is also given in the corner of the map so you can see how bad the forecast is. My June forecasts are currently dismal, eh.

Note: The image/numbers in the post on persistence (above) use the official NSIDC time series.


Can you explain the difference between anomaly persistence and forecast? It doesn't seem to be explained in your poster.
On your page, would it be much trouble to provide a figure for your latest prediction, possibly with confidence interval?

Persistence (light blue line) in the time series plot is an anomaly persistence. At the issue date (d), compute the difference of the observation from the long term mean for that day of year; this is the anomaly. At the forecast date (d+lead_time), find the long term mean and add the previously computed anomaly i.e. you have persisted the anomaly.
The "Forecast" is the method based on regression and integrating the probability of ice survival etc.
Persistence is on the plot in response to a comment that the Forecast provides no added value compared to persistence, but this can't be judged from just one year. My brief bits of work suggest it is non-trivial to beat persistence at sub-seasonal timescales.

The plots on the page should update every day - it's only a 50-day forecast (though I have run longer cases).  I haven't got around to adding conf. intervals ...

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1152 on: June 11, 2014, 07:36:59 PM »
Jim,

I'd hazard a guess - the air temperature is inside a miniature Stevenson Screen, shielded from direct sunlight, the thermistor string almost certainly isn't.

Let me make sure I'm reading this right... The implication of the plot is, that the buoy currently is sitting on only 120CM or so of ice, yes?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1153 on: June 11, 2014, 07:51:44 PM »
The implication of the plot is, that the buoy currently is sitting on only 120CM or so of ice, yes?

According to the bottom sounder the ice thickness is currently 161 cm
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1154 on: June 11, 2014, 08:17:00 PM »
Norilsk in the northern Siberia may get about 50-55F tuesday next week. Should give some decent melting in that area. Pevek in most eastern part of Siberia located at the coast may get about 5C next week... Should be interesting to watch if things come true which I'm sceptical to right now...


Two latest GFS runs looks really interesting! Let's see and hope they will come true so we can have some action this melt season...

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1155 on: June 11, 2014, 08:23:02 PM »
Blizzard of Oz,

Thanks, that's a lot more clear. No need to worry about confidence intervals, I tend to allow so guesstimated 'wiggle room' when I don't see them anyway - even if it just comes down to taking a qualitative message.

My June forecasts are currently dismal, eh.

June?

In Cryosphere Today Area the correlation (after detrending by interannual differencing) between area at DayN and area at minimum is poor until June (as one increments DayN from March through the year). I've not got the spreadsheet on me right now but the correlation increases significantly after June because in June CT Area picks up the spread of melt ponds. The correlation then increases to 1 as DayN nears the minimum (obviously).

Actually, I've quickly knocked a graph up using monthly data (easier and quicker to do), showing the correlations for both CT Area and NSIDC Extent as described above, June itself is a period of rapid rise of correlations. Although I've made a very simple prediction for this year based on May Arctic Ocean volume, my main annual prediction is in terms of CT Area and is made from after 20 June - may be a few days later this year due to the late start to melt ponding. A major reason for that is the behaviour of these correlations.

I wonder if your method is hitting the same problem before and during June?

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1156 on: June 11, 2014, 08:33:50 PM »
Jim,

For what it's worth I'm more confident now that we're going to see CT Area drop later this week as melt ponding spreads. GFS is consistently showing the pack level up to zero degC - where it will stay (more or less) through the peak of summer.

Lake Laptev  :o is warming up nicely, DMI shows greater extent of warm waters than over the last several days.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php

With areas adjacent to the Lena warming up we should see some nice warm water mixed into that region.  8)

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1157 on: June 11, 2014, 09:26:09 PM »
EURO 12z run is good for the ice! I bet the EURO will outpace the GFS hugely the next 1½ week --> cold and cloudy weather will dominate the Arctic the whole way until the middle of september when the cyclones will give the Arctic warmer weather than average...

I put the odds for the EUROs idea to 95% and the GFS idea to 5%. What odds are you giving the two models?

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1158 on: June 11, 2014, 09:31:02 PM »
EURO 12z run is good for the ice! I bet the EURO will outpace the GFS hugely the next 1½ week --> cold and cloudy weather will dominate the Arctic the whole way until ....
It's the warm precipitation in that cloudiness I'm worried about currently. "Cold" is relative, and I've seen forecasts predicting rain in the central basin, much less peripherally.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1159 on: June 11, 2014, 09:43:54 PM »
For what it's worth... The CAA and NW passage looks to be getting pounded this week. Forecast across much of it is for one or more days of rain with temps around 5C followed by sunny weather with temps rising into the low teens. Nunavit forecasts below.

http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/canada/index_e.html?id=NU
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Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1160 on: June 11, 2014, 09:44:36 PM »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1161 on: June 11, 2014, 09:51:41 PM »
I just looked at the DMI temp graphs for the years 1958-2014. NO other year have had such big negative anomalies this time at year in the area covering 80-90N(!) In addition, no other year have even been close to those negative anomalies...

Rain, yes that's good to melt ice. In combo with some wind it would have a nice impact on the ice..


jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1162 on: June 11, 2014, 09:55:32 PM »
Meanwhile, on the SE shores of the Beaufort:

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-20_metric_e.html
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Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1163 on: June 11, 2014, 09:59:36 PM »
I just looked at the DMI temp graphs for the years 1958-2014. NO other year have had such big negative anomalies this time at year in the area covering 80-90N(!) In addition, no other year have even been close to those negative anomalies...
Coincidentally I also flicked through the archive, but I thought 1992 was pretty close:



And 1983 too:



But this doesn't change the fact, of course, that temps north of 80° are extremely low right now!
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1164 on: June 11, 2014, 10:11:22 PM »
Animated gif of the opening of the Laptev polnya.




I put the odds for the EUROs idea to 95% and the GFS idea to 5%. What odds are you giving the two models?

Not sure to whom this is addressed. But on Wetterzentrale ECMWF doesn't give 2m temperature. 2m temperature is what counts as to whether there is a possibility of surface melt, surface melt is what counts at this time. So I don't give ECMWF anything.

Skin Temperature (NCEP/NCAR) attached for 2012 and 2014 7 June (latest available). Most of the pack is at 273K, i.e. zero deg C.


Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1165 on: June 11, 2014, 10:28:25 PM »
Neven: No, it doesn't. The temps are extremely low right now. The question is why? Do you or anyone else know if there have been unusually much precipitation falling in the Arctic basin since september last year? A thick snow cover is the only variable that I find plausible to explain some of the anomaluosly low temps right now over the central Arctic. In general, a warmer Arctic will also experience more precipitation and a thicker snow cover which would take longer to melt out and keep the temps down due to albedo effect.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1166 on: June 11, 2014, 10:48:32 PM »
Years back we were speculating what the shape of the curve would be for the last few years before the first summer meltout.  At the time it seems that some unidentified negative forcing would need to appear in order to turn the exponential into a Gompertz.

Might increased precipitation, more snow, be the factor that will drag out the inevitable?

For lakes that freeze and melt out each year might there be data for time to melt and snowfall/thickness?

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1167 on: June 11, 2014, 10:59:11 PM »
Neven: No, it doesn't. The temps are extremely low right now. The question is why? Do you or anyone else know if there have been unusually much precipitation falling in the Arctic basin since september last year? A thick snow cover is the only variable that I find plausible to explain some of the anomaluosly low temps right now over the central Arctic. In general, a warmer Arctic will also experience more precipitation and a thicker snow cover which would take longer to melt out and keep the temps down due to albedo effect.
I have no idea what is causing the low SATs. If you're right that it's because of snow on the ice pack, the ice will also have thickened less. But I don't know if it snowed more or less than in other years. All I have is this SLP comparison map I used for the 2013/2014 Winter analysis on the ASIB:



No big difference with 2011 or 2012, assuming that this more or less tells us how cloudy things have been. Then again, snow doesn't fall from every cloud. And snow cover anomaly was slightly less negative this year than it was in previous years.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1168 on: June 11, 2014, 11:00:44 PM »
will be interesting to see what tonight's cyclone does

SteveMDFP

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1169 on: June 11, 2014, 11:52:03 PM »
... The temps are extremely low right now. The question is why? Do you or anyone else know if there have been unusually much precipitation falling in the Arctic basin since september last year?...
I don't think you need to look much farther than the DMI SLP map.  Over the past few weeks, I think we've had a lot of low pressure centered near the pole.  Clouds and cold temps from mixing with higher altitude air, brought down to the surface.  We had a lot of this during 2013.

With higher intensity, the winds may promote melt by ocean mixing and divergence of ice.  Higher pressure, of course will lead to warmth and melt.  We seem to have been hanging around a "sweet spot" of chill, clouds, and light winds lately.  Sweet for retaining ice, that is.  I doubt it will persist as much as last year, but impossible to know.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1170 on: June 12, 2014, 02:03:17 AM »
Neven: No, it doesn't. The temps are extremely low right now. The question is why? Do you or anyone else know if there have been unusually much precipitation falling in the Arctic basin since september last year? A thick snow cover is the only variable that I find plausible to explain some of the anomaluosly low temps right now over the central Arctic. In general, a warmer Arctic will also experience more precipitation and a thicker snow cover which would take longer to melt out and keep the temps down due to albedo effect.

I don't think it's snow thickness, but extremely dry air that allows the temperature to plummet at "night" (actually just when the sun is only a few degrees above the horizon as opposed to tens of degrees) . Normally dry air and clear skies allow daytime temperatures to go up and "nighttime" temps to go down, but in this case we have all of the downside but none of the upside because the surface cannot rise above the freezing point.

Yet, the very fact that the freezing point limit of the surface is coming into play implies that the surface is melting. And not just melting, but melting A LOT. It's just that the water is trickling down and pooling under the snow (I presume) leaving dry snow on top which can still get very cold at "night".

At least that's the impression I get from Climate Reanalyzer which show the "cold spots" being due exclusively to low minimum temperatures when daily maximum temperatures are at the freezing point. And these coincide with the very dry pockets having a dew point below -25 C.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1171 on: June 12, 2014, 02:34:29 AM »
will be interesting to see what tonight's cyclone does

Move ice from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side.  Move ice away from the ESS shore line.

Bring melt ponds and a quick surface albedo drop to the Pacific side overall?


But I guess it protects the ice around 90N.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1172 on: June 12, 2014, 02:37:44 AM »
This season has been nothing like 2013 there is no forecast showing anything remotely close.

I am sorry but just because there a low pressure towards the pole doesn't mean it's anything like 2013.

It's June 11th.  Are we expecting the ice North of GIS and over the pole to be melting out by now?

2013 had a reverse dipole or a partial one.

2013 versus 2014 so far.





2013 the rest of the Summer:

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Xyrus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1173 on: June 12, 2014, 02:48:39 AM »
One thing I did notice is that the GFS is calling for pretty warm temperatures over the GIS. Some of the anomalies are breaching +9C.

Also, even with the cooler temperatures it appears the CAB is having a rough time. Looks like we may get an ice free pole.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1174 on: June 12, 2014, 05:15:48 AM »
I don't think it's snow thickness, but extremely dry air that allows the temperature to plummet at "night" (actually just when the sun is only a few degrees above the horizon as opposed to tens of degrees) . Normally dry air and clear skies allow daytime temperatures to go up and "nighttime" temps to go down, but in this case we have all of the downside but none of the upside because the surface cannot rise above the freezing point.

Yet, the very fact that the freezing point limit of the surface is coming into play implies that the surface is melting. And not just melting, but melting A LOT. It's just that the water is trickling down and pooling under the snow (I presume) leaving dry snow on top which can still get very cold at "night".

At least that's the impression I get from Climate Reanalyzer which show the "cold spots" being due exclusively to low minimum temperatures when daily maximum temperatures are at the freezing point. And these coincide with the very dry pockets having a dew point below -25 C.
With wind, I would think that there would be sublimation in these "dry pockets", although I don't know how much.  The information I found said sublimation-ablation is more significant at higher altitudes and has "a huge impact (up to 85% of snow precipitation) on surface mass balance" in East Antarctica, but at sea-level the impact would be far less I'm guessing. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4045

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1175 on: June 12, 2014, 05:32:09 AM »
Here is a demonstration of how terrible the sea ice proxies are at times area and extent wise:

Image #1 is a close up on visible sat of the Hudson/Baffin region.  The top left is the Northern Hudson. 

That phat channel on the left side of the image shows that it's almost full open water.  That is not the only part of the NA Hudson/Baffin side like that. 

Jaxa thinks it's 100 percent ice still. 

CT






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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1176 on: June 12, 2014, 05:49:32 AM »
The information I found said sublimation-ablation is more significant at higher altitudes and has "a huge impact (up to 85% of snow precipitation) on surface mass balance" in East Antarctica, but at sea-level the impact would be far less I'm guessing. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4045

I suspect this is extremely dependent on prevailing winds, as most antarctic oases are almost entirely dried by katabatic winds. Even when they are still freezing they can move huge masses of air and have an immense drying potential.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1177 on: June 12, 2014, 08:00:10 AM »
...King,

That's exactly what I've been noticing. Part of the 2007 to 2012 summer pattern is an intensification of the Beaufort High, and what we have in 2014 is a strong Beaufort High, unlike 2013.

Taking individual years from 2007 to 2012 the average summer pattern isn't necessarily strong in each month, some months only have a slight similarity. It really is far too early to say that 2014 will be a year of little melt like 2013.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1178 on: June 12, 2014, 11:19:15 AM »
Maybe when folk look at 2013 they just look to the predominance of LP systems and forget to also tie in the positioning of the lows? It could be possible to have a summer with a similar predominance of LP systems but that their position drives a very different final figure in extent?

Last years lows appear to have corralled the central ice into a tight pack with little in the way of export from the basin. Make that low chase ice into Fram and no matter its impact on melt rates that ice is doomed.

I've been a little impacted by this with me checking ice cover every time a 'Skeptic' notes LP systems in the basin but I do not see any similarities , so far, to the 2013 patterns. Maybe a strong high over Greenland is also a part of this pattern leading to pressure grads, and so wind fields, that aid drift toward Fram?

Already this year has seen a shunt of ice over to our side of the basin and this , in part, must have aided the issues of Siberia this early summer? The ice shunted our way (Barentsz/Greenland) was always going to melt away ( going on the previous decades melt patterns) but may lead to higher extent/area over these parts until that moved ice does melt?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1179 on: June 12, 2014, 11:49:40 AM »
Do you or anyone else know if there have been unusually much precipitation falling in the Arctic basin since september last year?

The NASA IceBridge 2014 quick look data for March has recently been published:

http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/icebridge/evaluation_products/sea-ice-freeboard-snowdepth-thickness-quicklook-index.html

It includes snow depth information, but as far as I'm aware it's not available displayed in handy graphical format in the same way as the sea ice thickness:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#IceBridge

The ice mass balance buoys report snow depth of course, but they only represent a very small sample from a very large Arctic!
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1180 on: June 12, 2014, 12:07:48 PM »
From an uneducated speculative observer. (also one willing to look very foolish at the same time)
We see temps below average. We see from MODIS indications of a lot of thing, broken, mushy ice, lots of fog. Area,  extent and POIMAS above curve for Arctic losing ice exponentially or even linearly. Therefore we must conclude something is going on with the ice.
I would help if I could find first hand on site reports at this point.
The fog should have eaten a lot of ice. Fog does keep surface temps down because it in effect is equalizing the heat between the melted ice and the air. We have had a fair bit of wind moving ice around although not exporting it. Could we not have a case where a) the ice has been spread out evenly enough so to it satisfies the grid as ice and b) at the same time the melt the fog did was to slushy the thick ice, but because the temp were low enough held the slush together to satisfy as thick ice.
Now as for the rest of the melt season that is totally depended upon if the winds do not export ice and the temps stay in a range to hold the slush together. This is of course presuming that the ice is slush and the thinner stuff actually has more open water then grid says.
Given my presumptions, if we get wind to move that ice out and the temps to rise enough to allow the shush to brake apart. We still have a lot of time for a major melt out.
Living in snow country I know that when there is a lot of fog and ice 2 things are certain. 1) the temps are cool untill the fog burns off and the ice becomes very unsafe. Also if the temps stay cold enough to keep the ice around that ice is very weak and very dangerous to be walking on. Also (as it does happen sometimes in mid winter) even if that ice does refreeze again that ice never returns to a solid block again and allow an easy attack area on any new solid ice that forms later. So even if we have a low melt season I believe a lot of damage has been done to it this season that we can not see from satellite images that will create a collapse in the future.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1181 on: June 12, 2014, 12:34:10 PM »
Beyond temps the ice roughly from March 10th to May 22nd was sent at an extreme pace towards the fram and Barents.

We have had small breaks since.  But once a again unlike 2013 there are powerful flushing winds.  Taking place with a big -NAO.

I think it's hard for folks to realize that summer flushing can be hardcore if there is a gradient of any strength. 

Because winds are not uniform ice loss from flushing doesn't always show up ASAP.

The pattern now is gonna torch the CAB + flush away from the Pacific side the entire time.

This ice can't be replaced now.

Having cold and clouds over the Nansen basin is worthless.

Ice hits the NATL barrier and poof.

The ice is so thin outside of the Southern Cab and Nansen basin I think if the weather continues down the path of meridonial warm the ice in late June will vanish over the Western CAB.

Fwiw cryosat, ice bridge, buoys, and piomas show most of the Beaufort ice is thin junk.

The past few days have been a primer there in terms of ice melt.

The real warmth and off shore winds starts today. 
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JayW

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1182 on: June 12, 2014, 12:43:29 PM »
For those who enjoy medium range weather forecasting, here is yesterday's daily write up from the long range Alaska desk.  I know it only covers a small portion off the arctic, but it can give cues into model trends and preferences. 
ECENS are the EURO ensembles, the most often used guidance at this range I have found from reading these discussions.
NAEFS are comprised of about 20 GFS, and 20 Canadian ensemble members.
Quote
ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

VALID 12Z SUN JUN 15 2014 - 12Z THU JUN 19 2014


SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS
WITH REGARD TO THE BASIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE. COMPARING THE LAST SEVERAL DATA RUNS OF ENSEMBLE
MEANS DOES REVEAL A MARKED TREND TOWARD MERIDIONAL BUCKLING OF THE
FLOW, WITH THE EUROPEAN CENTRE MOST STARKLY REFLECTING THE SHIFT.
USED THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC TEMPLATE THIS
FORECAST, WHICH DOES REPRESENT AN IMPORTANT BREAK IN CONTINUITY
FROM YESTERDAY. THE MAIN REASON FOR RELYING ON THE NEWER ECENS
MEAN IS THE DRAMATIC TIGHTENING OF ITS COMPONENT MEMBERS FROM THE
00Z/10 RUN. A LESS ROBUST, BUT COMMENSURATE TREND IS ALSO EVIDENT
COMPARING THE NAEFS MEANS SINCE 00Z/10. AMONG THE 12Z/11 MODELS IN
THUS FAR, THE UKMET ALONE HAS BROKEN TOWARD THE EUROPEAN CENTRE
CAMP.

THOUGH THE 00Z/11 ECENS MEAN IS DILUTE COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF WITH THE BUCKLING EVENT, IT STILL REPRESENTS A VERY
IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER DISCONTINUITY--WITH HEAVY RAINS
INDICATED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
MAINLAND. THE FOCUSED SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE ECMWF--WERE IT TO COME
TO PASS--WOULD BE THE FIRST DIRECT TRANSPORT OF LOWER-LATITUDE
MOISTURE INTO THE HEART OF THE STATE SINCE LAST FALL.


CISCO
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdak

The 8-14 day NAEFS, these are just the probability of above/average/below temperatures.  They continue to indicate a higher probability of cold over the arctic ocean basically anywhere there is ocean at high latitude, but high probability over most of the shores of the arctic, and over much of the Canadian archipelago.

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html
« Last Edit: June 12, 2014, 12:51:46 PM by JayW »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1183 on: June 12, 2014, 12:49:38 PM »
"Lower latitude moisture" could translate into a lot of imported heat delivered directly to the top surface of the ice, in a great hurry.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1184 on: June 12, 2014, 12:54:16 PM »
Don't forget those flat graphics of the Earth really skew the arctic temps.

Which north of 80n should stay cool with perpetual SLPs in the region. 

While places around 70-77N will be getting the boom
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1185 on: June 12, 2014, 01:01:48 PM »
Don't forget those flat graphics of the Earth really skew the arctic temps.

Which north of 80n should stay cool with perpetual SLPs in the region. 

While places around 70-77N will be getting the boom

Absolutely, I will try to find a polar view to better illustrate when the time allows. Buckled meridional flow sounds like
 -AO to this amateur
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1186 on: June 12, 2014, 01:13:06 PM »
-NAO.


In other words winds blowing from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side.

In terms of Alaska it means an SLP will be over Alaska with a hp over the CA area. 

So warm moist air will flow off Alaska/Mackenzie Delta/Admudsen Gulf/ Sachs Harbor area.

And wrap around the HP and blow thru the CAB.  While also pushing ice away from the NA shore.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1187 on: June 12, 2014, 01:38:36 PM »
I've just added this awesome temperature map from ClimateReanalyzer to the ASIG (along with some more maps)



That's the first image of the GFS 2M SAT forecast. More can be found here.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1188 on: June 12, 2014, 04:33:58 PM »
The Beaufort region is going to look way way different than 2013.  Well it already does.  But 2013 had essentially full ice coverage there until late June into July.

The models show a predominant off shore flow as well as 0C+ temps everyday starting today in the Beaufort/CAB region for the foreseeable future.



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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1189 on: June 12, 2014, 05:28:48 PM »
I post mostly at Ricky Rood's Wunderground climate blog, but follow this thread and the 2014 extent and El Niño threads closely.  I really appreciate the detailed and lively discussions here.

I just wanted to say that the Arctic temp graph that Neven just posted demonstrates an excellent use of color which would make Edward Tufte proud.  The abrupt transition from bright cool colors to bright warm colors at the 0°C/32°F boundary is great for me - especially since my color vision is not great (green acuity deficiency.)

Although my DSL connection is miserably slow (0.5mbps) here in the mountains of Western Panama, I was able to see a bit of the animation at the ClimateReanalyzer website, but the low skill at 6 days out makes me skeptical about that forecast warm blast over the Beaufort.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1190 on: June 12, 2014, 05:48:35 PM »
... the low skill at 6 days out makes me skeptical about that forecast warm blast over the Beaufort.

Parts there are rather warm already...



http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather.uk.php
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1191 on: June 12, 2014, 06:16:32 PM »
A bit off topic.

But there are temps in the upper 60s over Southern and Western GIS today.

And this is expected to go on indefinitely.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1192 on: June 12, 2014, 06:25:10 PM »
JD, I see that your graphic is SST anomalies, and that brings up a couple of questions. 

1.  Do the SST measuring methods accurately capture the surface temp of ice in it's various forms, snow, and melt ponds of various depths as compared to open areas of sea water?

2.  Is there any significant relationship between SST's and air temps at 2m height?  Do they measure SST via satellite?  Do they do correlate the buoy readings with satellite data?   And how do the measure the surface temps at 2m height?  Buoys and interpolation?

My mind is boggled by the complexity of these ocean and climate systems and their interactions, from the micro to the macro, and the apparent high level of chaos in the larger aspects systems. 

If I'm getting any of my basic info wrong, please correct me. 

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1193 on: June 12, 2014, 06:28:28 PM »
I'm also very sceptical to those warm pulses that have been forecasted now not once, but several times without beving materialized... I don't think we'll see a "heat dome" over the Arctic the next week either... Not unless the forecasts say so within 48 hours..

So far in June the Arctic have lost 500 000 km2 with an average melt rate of barely 50 000 km2 each day. With 19 days left of this month we would need to see an average daily drop of 100 000 km2 to equal the sea ice loss that occured in 2012. To reach the 2 Mn km2 loss we'll need to loose about 80 000 km2 every day. I'm sceptical that we'll see these numbers. But we should at least loose 1,5 Mn km2 ice this June. If such a modest ice loss rate would happen that would perhaps put us to the highest SIE according to JAXA since 2004 with about 9,8 Mn km2... In the event that we will loose 2 Mn km2 this month (even 2013 managed to loose 2 Mn km2 in June) that would yield the fourth lowest SIE according to JAXA.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1195 on: June 12, 2014, 07:13:41 PM »
12z GFS:


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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1196 on: June 12, 2014, 09:07:19 PM »
No worry people!! 12z run from the EURO shows that the warm air from Sibiria don't get a chance to warm the Arctic!!

I think maybe we will add this season as "SPAC" - Semi - Persistent Arctic Cyclones...

The GFS 12z run forecasts a huge HP over the Arctic...

My hat the EURO will surely "win" over the GFS!!

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1197 on: June 12, 2014, 09:28:44 PM »
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_grb-comp_an.cgi?re=arctic&mo=ecmwf&va=c500sf&cu=latest&ge=800&loop=java&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6

it doesn't look good to me. fram advection and warmth all around the margins. i can't post 2m temp maps publicly but the basin goes above freezing after 96 hrs

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1198 on: June 12, 2014, 10:19:13 PM »
No worry people!! 12z run from the EURO shows that the warm air from Sibiria don't get a chance to warm the Arctic!!

I think maybe we will add this season as "SPAC" - Semi - Persistent Arctic Cyclones...

The GFS 12z run forecasts a huge HP over the Arctic...

My hat the EURO will surely "win" over the GFS!!

The euro flushes a lot of ice for a summer gradient pattern.  It will be very anomalous like March-May was if the Euro OP is right.



Which it won't be since it's own ensembles think it's on crack post day 5 and look much more like the GFS.


But even if it was the Pacific gets torched and ice is constantly flushed.  2013 had a huge +NAO to go with having a persistent vortex over the pole/NA side cutting off flushing. 

There is currently a -NAO with no end in sight. 






I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1199 on: June 12, 2014, 10:41:02 PM »
JD, I see that your graphic is SST anomalies, and that brings up a couple of questions. 

1.  Do the SST measuring methods accurately capture the surface temp of ice in it's various forms, snow, and melt ponds of various depths as compared to open areas of sea water?

2.  Is there any significant relationship between SST's and air temps at 2m height?  Do they measure SST via satellite?  Do they do correlate the buoy readings with satellite data?   And how do the measure the surface temps at 2m height?  Buoys and interpolation?

My mind is boggled by the complexity of these ocean and climate systems and their interactions, from the micro to the macro, and the apparent high level of chaos in the larger aspects systems. 

If I'm getting any of my basic info wrong, please correct me.

I'll preface this by stating I'm not an expert - but rather a systems analyst - but will take a stab at your questions.

In general, the accuracy of readings one gets is only going to be as good as the granularity of the sensors used.  There can be huge variation due to local microclimates.

As the nature of the complexity - everything revolves around three factors - the melting point of ice, and the vapor pressure of sea water at given temperatures, and the rate of transfer of sensible heat into phase changes of water.  The first two provide the system with symmetry points, the third determines the rate of change that will take place in the system.  Regarding temperature, all buffer it.  QED, where "cool" currently, the arctic is still within about -2C, +/- a degree or so, and in many cases may reflect the local effect of exposed sea water which runs at around that temperature.

1) - that's a pretty broad question, and the answer I think is best described as "Imperfectly".  From remote sensing, it requires making assumptions regarding the energy balance at the surface, as expressed by black body radiation and albedo.  It is as one might say, "only skin deep".  It doesn't necessarily indicate net heat in what is underneath the surface, nor indicate what the temperature is above the surface. 

2) - 2M temperature is mostly observed and then intrapolated directly between stations where they exist, but where they do not, is where various algorithms come into play.

An example of how this is done for the DMI can be found here in a link from skeptical science:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=288

"The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Arctic temperature data is an output of the latest operational model as used for meteorological forecasting by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This output is an average of all model points at 2m height, currently on a 0.5 degree grid over the most northerly part of the Arctic, above 80N. Because the number of land stations in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) list above 80 degrees North is very small indeed (a handful), measured data inputs for the model must be supplemented by other sources for high resolution meteorological work. The models assimilate inputs from weather stations, drifting stations and buoys, radiosondes, aircraft, vessels and more recently infra-red and microwave satellite based sensors.

The data is used to create a full three dimensional deterministic model of the global atmosphere which can be run forwards in time so that dynamic atmospheric conditions (weather) and regional climate can be analysed and forecast (or reanalyzed using historical observations as inputs) to the resolution limits of the model.

The resolution of these operational models has continually increased to take advantage of increased computing power and higher spatial resolution satellite data. This means that the DMI Arctic temperature data has had several changes in its history.

Between 1958 and 2002, the output of the ECMWF 40 year reanalysis (ERA-40) is used, (approximately 120km grid horizontal resolution). The ERA-40 re-analysis itself has three main sections of assimilated data, using pre-satellite observations up to 1972, then assimilating some satellite sensor observations, starting with the Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer (VTPR) on early NOAA satellites, up to 1987/1988, and then using more recent observation types and more satellite sensors, both Infra Red and Microwave, in combined sensor packages such as the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) amongst others, on platforms like the ERS (European Remote Sensing Satellite) and later NOAA series of satellites from 1987 onwards. In 2002 the DMI data switches to a higher resolution T511 model (40km resolution), then in 2006 to T799, (25km) and from 26th Jan 2010, T1279 (16km). These changes could be linked to minor differences in the apparent Summer melt temperature, (there are small differences between the ERA-40 and the T511 outputs in the overlap period in 2002)."

Other sources for 2M temperatures use similar methods and data sources.
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