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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1350 on: June 18, 2014, 07:38:42 AM »
The GFS is brutal tonight.

-NAO locked in.  Ridge locked in.

Flushing picking up.  Solar all over.
Climate Reanalyzer illuustrates that pretty emphatically.  The ridging looks strong right through the solstice.
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1351 on: June 18, 2014, 07:45:48 AM »
Ice in the beaufort is still quite solid, and with most of the wind running parrallel to shore I don't see much scope for significant declines in the short term.  However surface melt is already taking off with a big increase in last 24 hrs shown by latest MODIS and the current conditions will certainly weaken the ice for future stat drops.  The current pattern also tends to push ice and cooler air towards Laptev which is currently the most significant weak point in the central pack.  June cliff about to start?  I thought so a week or so ago and was wrong, but the current pattern looks to be stronger, and with more summer power behind it.

Kara is getting blasted by strong winds and big heat so should see strong declines.  It was all going to melt anyway.  Of most interest to me is what will happen on the Atlantic side of the north pole.  The ice surface hear is still nice and white and cold, but divergence has created a loose floes with plenty of small pieces of open water.  Later in this pattern the high will ridge towards this region and hit it with sunshine, presumably soaking significant amounts of heat into the water between the floes.  Also the wind will be at times very strong with low pressure in the north Atlantic causing a tight gradient.  Much of this wind will be roughly parrallel to the ice edge (but pushing this ice towards Fram), but some of the time it will be towards the ice on a long fetch - so potentially some very large waves.

Also I've had a good hard look at the melt pond in May paper and think I've spotted some serious flaws, but it won't be until later that I'll get my act together and explain why.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1352 on: June 18, 2014, 09:39:26 AM »
The Parallel flow will push ice out of the Mackenzie Delta and (Amundsen Bay) region but probably not much off the Alaska coast. 


The CAB will be taking a major beating tho.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1353 on: June 18, 2014, 10:24:59 AM »
First a caveat......I don't know what I'm talking about.

Looking at the most recent area and extent numbers (extent is lower than 2013, area is slightly higher) I just don't see how we get anywhere close to 2012 or 2007 as some are suggesting. We are halfway through the month and the June swoon has yet to appear. The lower extent and higher area would suggest a degree of compactness that would seem to protect the ice that does exist. Everything I've read over  the past year suggests that the early melt sets the stage for the final extent and area minimums. Haven't temperatures in the CAB been anomalously cold so far? Wouldn't the stubborn area measures suggest not a lot of melt ponding?


 ???
Factors you mention help to have less melt and higher minimum, yes. But there are other factors at play which contribute to the possibility for this year to be more melting than ever. I'll name some from the top of my head.

1. April 2014 was very warm in Siberia ( http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/04 - we are talking some +5C anomalies here), and overall very warm in Northern hemisphere. This means, many areas which are usually "that much cold" - were not so cold this April, in and around Arctic. It'll take less energy to warm those things up to 0C - ergo, the remainder of the energy will be spent to melt more than otherwise possible. This means more and/or earlier melt things in the Arctic itself, as well as more meltwater discharge into the Arctic by Siberian (and not only Siberian) rivers, to name just a few effects;

2. El-Nino has arrived (some say), or at least has 90% change to arrive in a matter of weeks (others say). In terms of this melt season, the one certain impact - is higher temperatures for at least some of Arctic air masses because of El-Nino;

3. Lots of Arctic ice is fractured and (relatively) weakly re-frozen fields. More prone to fragmentation during storms;

4. There was significant (to say very least) increase of methane emissions in Arctic during fall 2013. Much of this extra methane is still there, creating extra greenhouse effect in the Arctic;

5. Much open water above much of Arctic continental shelves early, which likely means extra methane and certainly means extra albedo drop during max insolation weeks;

6. Ice volume is pretty much on par with 2012, last i've seen (PIOMASS data for this May);

7. CO2 levels are higher than ever - in particular, higher than in 2012.

And, of course, the trend and statistics. Last 10+ years, the trend is accelerating decrease of ASI. Seasonal variations apply, of course. Now 2012 was obviously a year with unusual melt-favorable conditions, while 2013 was a year with unusual melt-halting conditions (especially during August of both years). Probability theory says that it is unlikely we'd have an "unusual" year, and it is likely we'd get a "usual" year - in terms of weather, including August weather. In turn, the trend says that what was "unusually low minimum" for ASI in 2012 - is expected to be much more like a usual deal 2 years later (i.e. now).
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1354 on: June 18, 2014, 11:45:49 AM »
The Parallel flow will push ice out of the Mackenzie Delta

A rare opportunity for a clear view across the years, in this case June 17th:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#Beaufort

The "fast ice" across the Mackenzie Delta has broken up earlier this year than in both 2012 and 2013. In 2012 there was of course much more open water in the Beaufort Sea by now:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Anne

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1355 on: June 18, 2014, 12:34:26 PM »
NASA: Warm Rivers Play Role in Arctic Sea Ice Melt
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2014-069

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1356 on: June 18, 2014, 12:57:11 PM »
What is the fastest area has gone down in a week?

CT SIA dropped by 1.33 million km2 over a seven-day stretch from 0.4877 through 0.5042 (28 June-04 July) in 1988. That period also saw the largest four-, five-, and six-day losses in the CT area record. (FWIW, 2012 had the largest eight-, nine-, and ten-day losses, but could only manage third on the seven-day list.)

Anyway, as others have said, I enjoy--even admire--your enthusiasm. And I'll admit that it takes a lot of courage to make such bold and public predictions as you so often do. But when those forecasts make frequent use of colorful and promising terms such as "torched", "brutal", "demolished", "beating", "onslaught", and "major flushing", and then for weeks on end nothing that fits those terms actually comes to pass, it becomes more and more difficult to defend them.

I watch the ice closely. Very closely. And with area being over a million km2 behind 2012 (after today's numbers come in tomorrow), and the extent gap between 2012 and 2014 at 421,000 km2 and growing, and with no promise of an early August Arctic cyclone such as 2012 saw, and with last year's bizarre behavior--area increasing by 81k over an eight-day early August stretch where normally it drops by half-a-million or so--and with the persistent low temperatures across the area, and with this year's dearth of early, low-albedo melt ponds, and so on--well, I don't believe anything remotely close to a record is going to happen this year. In fact, while I believe 2014's various minima will for the most part be lower than 2013's, those may be perhaps by only the thinnest of margins...
« Last Edit: June 18, 2014, 01:38:22 PM by Jim Pettit »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1357 on: June 18, 2014, 03:56:18 PM »
... In fact, while I believe 2014's various minima will for the most part be lower than 2013's, those may be perhaps by only the thinnest of margins...
I wish i could be as optimistics in my beliefs. But there are 11 friends of ocean who are very convincing me it ain't much productive to have optimistic beliefs nowadays.

I can give you names of those 11 ocean's friends: 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012. Those are difficult to ignore, eh.

As for no clear signs of record melt this year - i wonder, did you hear much about such signs in June 2007? I wasn't paying attention to Arctic back then, so i wouldn't know. But i suspect, little if anything of "oh, we gotta get unprecedentally low ASI minimum this year!" was said and discussed back then. If so, then this year still may happen to end up being "2007 #2" in this sense, eh?

Arctic is affecting the whole world, as many people here know and understand well. But the opposite is also true: the whole world affects Arctic. And i don't see the whole world getting any better - nope, it just accumulates the ACC potential faster and faster, that's all it does. And Arctic can't be isolated from that.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1358 on: June 18, 2014, 04:18:44 PM »
What is the fastest area has gone down in a week?

CT SIA dropped by 1.33 million km2 over a seven-day stretch from 0.4877 through 0.5042 (28 June-04 July) in 1988. That period also saw the largest four-, five-, and six-day losses in the CT area record. (FWIW, 2012 had the largest eight-, nine-, and ten-day losses, but could only manage third on the seven-day list.)

Anyway, as others have said, I enjoy--even admire--your enthusiasm. And I'll admit that it takes a lot of courage to make such bold and public predictions as you so often do. But when those forecasts make frequent use of colorful and promising terms such as "torched", "brutal", "demolished", "beating", "onslaught", and "major flushing", and then for weeks on end nothing that fits those terms actually comes to pass, it becomes more and more difficult to defend them.

I watch the ice closely. Very closely. And with area being over a million km2 behind 2012 (after today's numbers come in tomorrow), and the extent gap between 2012 and 2014 at 421,000 km2 and growing, and with no promise of an early August Arctic cyclone such as 2012 saw, and with last year's bizarre behavior--area increasing by 81k over an eight-day early August stretch where normally it drops by half-a-million or so--and with the persistent low temperatures across the area, and with this year's dearth of early, low-albedo melt ponds, and so on--well, I don't believe anything remotely close to a record is going to happen this year. In fact, while I believe 2014's various minima will for the most part be lower than 2013's, those may be perhaps by only the thinnest of margins...


Hopefully the weather repeats like 2013. But it will take a wall to wall cold to July and August and a flip to a +NAO for the bolded to happen.

You have to be expecting the current warm weather regime taking over to erode by early July and to never go back. 
 
What happened last August wasn't bizarre when you consider the massive reverse dipole and amazing weather for ice retention that was impossible to foresee the best ice retention weather since 1996 and 2nd best over the last 30 years.

I say no way that happens again and with the onset of bad weather 3 weeks earlier than in 2013 I wish you the best of luck in your predictions.

I am sure the same things were said in 2007, 2008, and 2012.





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Metamemesis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1359 on: June 18, 2014, 04:25:07 PM »
Cryosphere Today is also showing a drop of 195,000 km2 for the last 24 hour update (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html), so there's still everything to play for.

And if the years of 2007 and later have shown us anything, it's that historical trends and predictors are no longer reliable. My (ill-informed and perhaps naive) opinion is that this will be a fascinating summer in the Arctic, particularly if the forecasts for the next 5-10 days do actually unfold.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1360 on: June 18, 2014, 04:50:15 PM »
Here is the weather for 2013 from this day until the end of August.

It's June 18th.  If the weather is even half way opposite the rest of the season this year will be well below 2013.

If ridging and warmth is predominant 2014 will be way below 2013.

So far the -NAO is a big change from 2013.  So is the onset of a blow torch weather pattern 3 weeks earlier than 2013.

We had about 10 days of truly warm weather in 2013 over the basin in July. 

By all means if this happens and July and August of 2014 is straight PV/major +NAO then yeah 2014 will be with 2013.

I have a hard time believing that is going to be the case given how rare weather wise 2013 was and the onset of the current weather.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1361 on: June 18, 2014, 05:00:48 PM »
Here is the weather for 2007-12 seasons the rest of the way.

Just image if 2013 had weather like these years after today the rest of the way versus what it really had. 

How far do folks feel 2013 could of fallen with that kind of weather versus the amazing summer long +NAO/mostly reverse dipole/pv anomaly.
















I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1362 on: June 18, 2014, 05:22:02 PM »
Well it didn't take very long for melt ponds to show up.

For those who don't know this stuff won't be showing up in Area charts for another 4 days+ with area's big updating lag. 



I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1363 on: June 18, 2014, 05:32:13 PM »
Not directly related to Arctic, but an interesting study anyway.
Quote
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the coming five days. However, the 00Z Friday run of the GFS model predicts that a low pressure area will develop over the Western Caribbean by Wednesday, and push northwards into the Gulf of Mexico and become a tropical storm late in the week. The GFS has been fixated on variations of this idea in all of its runs for the past five days--though the timing of when the predicted storm will form has bounced around from 5 - 11 days into the future. Should we be concerned? A 2013 study by a group of scientists led by Florida State's Daniel Halperin found that we have three models that can make decent forecasts of the genesis of new tropical cyclones in the Atlantic: the GFS, European (ECMWF), and UKMET models. The study only evaluated the model skill for forecasts out to four days in the future, and the forecast skill declined markedly for three- and four-day forecasts. In the current scenario, we are talking about forecasts made much further into the future, which are bound to be low-skill. In addition, the study found that the GFS model had a high incidence of false alarms for tropical cyclone genesis forecasts in the Caribbean (50%). The other two reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis (European and UKMET) had no hint of a low pressure area developing in the Western Caribbean on Wednesday in their 00Z Friday runs. One additional model to consider: the 00Z Friday run of the NAVGEM model is supporting the GFS's idea of a low pressure area forming in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday. The predecessor to this model, the NOGAPS model, was evaluated in the Florida State study, but performed poorly in making tropical cyclone genesis forecasts. However, when two or more models make the same genesis forecast, the odds of the event actually occurring are increased considerably, the study found.
This from http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2700#commenttop
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1364 on: June 18, 2014, 05:57:01 PM »
For comparison with 2013 over the same period:






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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1365 on: June 18, 2014, 06:13:26 PM »
The off shore flow is not coming off Alaska.  It's coming off Canada and hit the CAB from the side.

This will push the ice away from Canada.  Look at that nasty wind and Dewpoint.  At least it's Cloudy.  But I am not so sure that is a good thing with that kind of DP advection and huge wind.

Quote
Observed at:
    Sachs Harbour Airport
Date:
    10:00 AM MDT Wednesday 18 June 2014

Condition:
    Cloudy
Pressure:
    100.7 kPa
Tendency:
    rising
Visibility:
    16 km

Temperature:
    5.5°C
Dewpoint:
    3.4°C

Humidity:
    86%
Wind:
    E 39 gust 50 km/h



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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1366 on: June 18, 2014, 06:40:21 PM »
The sun is beating down on buoy 2013F in the Beaufort Sea, but there's no melt ponds to be seen just yet. The air temperature is above zero now though:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2014-imbs/#2013F
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1367 on: June 18, 2014, 07:14:30 PM »
Cryosphere Today is also showing a drop of 195,000 km2 for the last 24 hour update (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html), so there's still everything to play for.

And if the years of 2007 and later have shown us anything, it's that historical trends and predictors are no longer reliable. My (ill-informed and perhaps naive) opinion is that this will be a fascinating summer in the Arctic, particularly if the forecasts for the next 5-10 days do actually unfold.

While I will object mildly to your "everything to play for" metaphor - I would love nothing more than to find my pessimism is unfounded - I agree we are in unknown territory as pertains to our sensing and interpretation of it.

SIA going *Up*?!

That by itself, even with favorable ice retention conditions (which they are not - melt has been erratic and occasionally anemic, not nonexistent... ) trips my nonsense filters.

I'd very much like to see a discussion as to why this observation (SIA) has been so erratic, and how it can possibly be considered reliable in the face of energy balance supportive of melt.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1368 on: June 18, 2014, 07:27:23 PM »
NNNNAAAAAAHHHHHHHHNNNNNNAAAAASSSTYYYYY!


The melt season has begun.


I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1369 on: June 18, 2014, 07:52:38 PM »
Case in point.  Even without looking past Saturday, the short term prediction is for powerful heat appearing over the Pacific side of the Arctic.

How can there be an uptic expected in SIA?

The dice are still rolling.

NNNNAAAAAAHHHHHHHHNNNNNNAAAAASSSTYYYYY!


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Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1370 on: June 18, 2014, 08:59:14 PM »
I think the increase in SIA is due to melt... The more ice melts the more the ice spread the SIA increase with it.
Baffin will disappear very soon...
There is a risk that the whole arctic is being sent toward Fram straight because the bounds between the land and the ice are now almost broken...let's see how it goes... (I know there is thick Ice there but I doubt the quality of it)
« Last Edit: June 18, 2014, 09:04:37 PM by Laurent »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1371 on: June 18, 2014, 09:11:40 PM »
The 12z Euro is brutal.


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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1372 on: June 18, 2014, 09:13:28 PM »
I think the increase in SIA is due to melt... The more ice melts the more the ice spread the SIA increase with it.
Baffin will disappear very soon...
There is a risk that the whole arctic is being sent toward Fram straight because the bounds between the land and the ice are now almost broken...let's see how it goes... (I know there is thick Ice there but I doubt the quality of it)
Melt won't increase SIA ... Quite the opposite. Extent can increase with melt by way of decreased concentration.
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Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1373 on: June 18, 2014, 09:27:37 PM »
Why not if the ice stays above 15% concentrations the spread would be counted as SIA also !?

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1374 on: June 18, 2014, 09:43:31 PM »
So, finally we get some action!:) From June 17 to June 30 the SIE loss were 1,1 Mn km2 by 2013 according to JAXA. In 2012 about 1,0 Mn km2 vanished whereas 2011 only managed to get rid of 800K ice. Best of all was 2004 which only saw 600K ice disappear. Worst in the class was 2007 and 2010 which both saw about 1,2 Mn km2 ice melt away. Given the foreseen good conditions I think we should see about 1,05 Mn km2 ice be gone by June 30. If so we would end up by having roughly a SIE at 9,4 Mn km2 being 200K lower than 2013 and 500K behind 2010. In July about 2,7 Mn ice will disappear which was the average for 2000-2009 in July. At that point we'll be around 6,7 Mn km2 per July 31. Being rather conservative and assuming an ice loss of about 1,7 Mn km2 in august would bring us down to 5,0 Mn km2. In september at most 500K will be transformed so somewhere in the range 4,4-4,5 Mn km2 by september 15 isn't too unrealistic. That would put 2014 to the third or fourth place behind 2012, 2007 and about on pair with 2011.

Not only Baffin which will be on track to melt away quickly now. My eyes are looking at the North East Passage which given the foreseen conditions should open up rather fast now. If this weather pattern continues I predict that the North East Passage will be open by July 4...

Talking about Baffin, it should be gone by June 30.. The Canadian Archipelago should also see some decent melt in the Amundsen Route..

One thing that the latest HYCOM shows is that the area in Beaufort Sea and the eastern part of Chukchi with ice about 2-4 M should be pushed further north away from the coast which is no disadvantage for that ice pack...

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1375 on: June 18, 2014, 10:23:07 PM »
Remember that 2-4m Hycom shows is way overdone
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1376 on: June 18, 2014, 10:31:54 PM »
The falls for medium range modeled dipoles Everytime king: yes, HYCOM ioverdone but the rough picture should be that the thickest ice probably will get better conditions to stay alive..

GFS 12z run also shows some hints that the HP in Arctic will persist over long range even if one should take forecasts for the Arctic 7-11 days from now with a huge portion of salt it might give us some hints, at least for speculating..  EURO 12z back this forecast up to day 10. WOuld be really interesting to see things progress if a real heat blob reaches the Arctic basin...

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1377 on: June 18, 2014, 10:55:50 PM »
The algorithms aren't perfect.  Lets say the error is 1% - that would sound pretty good.  Then the error would be about 90k for current area.  Then lets say from one day to the next it changes from a strong negative to strong positive error.  Thats a 180k swing in arctic area - and so daily changes are not particularly reliable.  But comparing an area minimum of say 3.1m one year with 3.5m another year, and an error of 1% means you can make a useful comparison and be quite confident the difference is significant.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1378 on: June 18, 2014, 11:35:09 PM »
The 12z Euro is brutal.




I just came home, checked the forecast before coming here (and reading all other new comments on other threads first), and my jaw dropped somewhat. If this doesn't have a very marked effect, I'm not sure what use it is to watch these weather forecast maps any longer. I'll just look at how low the swallows are flying around my house, or something.

Except for slightly more isobars (-> transport), this is the ideal set-up for Arctic sea ice decrease.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1379 on: June 18, 2014, 11:50:43 PM »
The algorithms aren't perfect.  Lets say the error is 1% - that would sound pretty good.  Then the error would be about 90k for current area.  Then lets say from one day to the next it changes from a strong negative to strong positive error.  Thats a 180k swing in arctic area - and so daily changes are not particularly reliable.  But comparing an area minimum of say 3.1m one year with 3.5m another year, and an error of 1% means you can make a useful comparison and be quite confident the difference is significant.
You have it in part, Michaeal... That we have variation day over day... And that that at end of season, a 1% error becomes less significant for YoY comparison.

I guess what I'm brisling over is significance applied to daily, even weekly numbers which it appears demonstrated are too volatile to be reliable for sensible prediction. 

Much less predict the eventual dimension of ice area in September, we have difficulty determining its state *Now*. I'd say we need to improve our tools.  We are relying too much on statistics based on uncertain quantitative measures, seems to me, at least for SHORT time frames. To be clear,  Year over year, the noise drops off to a far less significance, but within the melt season I'm questioning some of the conclusions we are trying to draw.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1380 on: June 18, 2014, 11:59:53 PM »

I just came home, checked the forecast before coming here (and reading all other new comments on other threads first), and my jaw dropped somewhat. If this doesn't have a very marked effect, I'm not sure what use it is to watch these weather forecast maps any longer. I'll just look at how low the swallows are flying around my house, or something.

Except for slightly more isobars (-> transport), this is the ideal set-up for Arctic sea ice decrease.

this has been signaled for some time on all ensemble products and the ecmwf weekly forecasts show above normal temps over the arctic basin for the next month

crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1381 on: June 19, 2014, 12:04:56 AM »
I think the increase in SIA is due to melt... The more ice melts the more the ice spread the SIA increase with it.
Baffin will disappear very soon...
There is a risk that the whole arctic is being sent toward Fram straight because the bounds between the land and the ice are now almost broken...let's see how it goes... (I know there is thick Ice there but I doubt the quality of it)
Melt won't increase SIA ... Quite the opposite. Extent can increase with melt by way of decreased concentration.

If the ice is 1m thick and you slice off 50cm from edge, then this will rotate to occupy twice the area. I find it hard to imagine that happening frequently enough to increase area by more than the melt in other locations if there is lots of area with thickness down to a couple of cm or less. However if there isn't much ice that is really thin and you also break up a lot of fast ice into small ice cubes and also consider some ridges collapsing and spreading out....

Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1382 on: June 19, 2014, 12:47:17 AM »
It is not about thickness but surface. See the attached image. Wrangel island 1st of june the ice in the south east is still a pack (nearly) on the 18th the ice is no more a pack but some nuggets of ice. I am pretty sure they will be counted as SIA because they are at more than 15% concentration

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1383 on: June 19, 2014, 01:26:34 AM »
It is not about thickness but surface. See the attached image. Wrangel island 1st of june the ice in the south east is still a pack (nearly) on the 18th the ice is no more a pack but some nuggets of ice. I am pretty sure they will be counted as SIA because they are at more than 15% concentration

We are still talking about artifacts rather than substance. SIA computations are *supposed* to factor in extent concentration, so changes in concentration derived from transport *should* theoretically be dealt with.

So my base question still stands. How can surface coverage go up so dramatically in such a strongly positive thermal environment?  Sorry, but I think something is broken and we need to reconsider our sensing sources and methods.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1384 on: June 19, 2014, 01:37:35 AM »

I just came home, checked the forecast before coming here (and reading all other new comments on other threads first), and my jaw dropped somewhat. If this doesn't have a very marked effect, I'm not sure what use it is to watch these weather forecast maps any longer. I'll just look at how low the swallows are flying around my house, or something.

Except for slightly more isobars (-> transport), this is the ideal set-up for Arctic sea ice decrease.

this has been signaled for some time on all ensemble products and the ecmwf weekly forecasts show above normal temps over the arctic basin for the next month

Thank you, Forkyfork, for succinctly laying out what some of us have been trying to express...

It's far from over....

This is not 2013..12..11..10....

The dice are far from done rolling....
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JayW

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1385 on: June 19, 2014, 05:39:37 AM »
Since I get a bit frustrated trying to find the edges of the ice on worldview, I took the last 14 days and tried to remove all the clouds.  I actually started with 7 days, but needed to use 14 to satisfy myself :)  perhaps someone else will enjoy it also.

Images came courtesy of NASA Worldview  https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1386 on: June 19, 2014, 05:49:23 AM »
So, finally we get some action!:) From June 17 to June 30 the SIE loss were 1,1 Mn km2 by 2013 according to JAXA. In 2012 about 1,0 Mn km2 vanished whereas 2011 only managed to get rid of 800K ice. Best of all was 2004 which only saw 600K ice disappear. Worst in the class was 2007 and 2010 which both saw about 1,2 Mn km2 ice melt away. Given the foreseen good conditions I think we should see about 1,05 Mn km2 ice be gone by June 30. If so we would end up by having roughly a SIE at 9,4 Mn km2 being 200K lower than 2013 and 500K behind 2010. In July about 2,7 Mn ice will disappear which was the average for 2000-2009 in July. At that point we'll be around 6,7 Mn km2 per July 31. Being rather conservative and assuming an ice loss of about 1,7 Mn km2 in august would bring us down to 5,0 Mn km2. In september at most 500K will be transformed so somewhere in the range 4,4-4,5 Mn km2 by september 15 isn't too unrealistic. That would put 2014 to the third or fourth place behind 2012, 2007 and about on pair with 2011.

Not only Baffin which will be on track to melt away quickly now. My eyes are looking at the North East Passage which given the foreseen conditions should open up rather fast now. If this weather pattern continues I predict that the North East Passage will be open by July 4...

Talking about Baffin, it should be gone by June 30.. The Canadian Archipelago should also see some decent melt in the Amundsen Route..

One thing that the latest HYCOM shows is that the area in Beaufort Sea and the eastern part of Chukchi with ice about 2-4 M should be pushed further north away from the coast which is no disadvantage for that ice pack...

Jaxa dropped -75.5K.

If we average that the rest of the month it comes to: 981.5K.  Just a lil bit below your prediction. 

I think we can do better and even push into the -1.2 to -1.3 mil range.

The Kara, Laptev, ESS, Beaufort, and Chukchi could all put out big numbers with this one.


Then add in the Baffin and Hudson regions.  We could most definitely see that.

My rough estimate of the mean wind flow over the next 7-10 days.  Is not perfect compaction conditions.  But given the heat and melt it's pretty good for shrinking the larger regioned Pacific side.

There is going to be way way way way more open water in the CAB then in 2013 in a week. 


I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1387 on: June 19, 2014, 06:04:47 AM »
Quoting jdallem

It's far from over....

This is not 2013..12..11..10....

The dice are far from done rolling....

[Sorry, I haven't worked out how to quote, so I cut & pasted.]

I agree with you. I think the regime in the Arctic is becoming less stable and far less predictable Here we seem to be getting very favourable conditions for a rapid ice retreat, but after predicting < 2M sq km for last year's minimum SIA, I decided to keep quiet this year.  The new Arctic, like the rest of the climate, isn't what it was when I was growing up in the 50s and 60s. As the old saying goes: "It isn't over until the fat lady sings."
Also, I wonder what is happening to all that warm, salty, and dense water that has been advected into the Arctic in recent years. Does it flow out again, cool, or pool? If the last option we might see an unexpected fast bottom melt that could give us an "August surprise" one year. The stored ocean heat might then dominate the melt rather than just the surface conditions. I have wondered about this since the "Laptev bite" of 2012.

Thank you to all the contributors here. This blog is a fascinating read.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1388 on: June 19, 2014, 07:26:48 AM »
The CAB takes a beating. 






I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1389 on: June 19, 2014, 08:56:33 AM »
Here is the daily progression during peak heating over the Bering area in the short term in terms of 2M temps.  So it's night time on the Atlantic side.  keep that in mind as you judge the graphics.

This is today well really 3 hours ago.
18 hours out from now.  42 hours out from now.  And 66 hours out from now.

This will get Lord Vader's juices flowing.




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1390 on: June 19, 2014, 09:33:18 AM »
Not to step on Jimmy Hunts shoes.

Full Sun, near 1C= big time melting going on at the surface level.

Quote
Buoy 2013F is at


    Current Buoy Data (06/19/2014):

    Pos: 76.57 N, 150.49 W

    Air Temp: 0.88 C
    Air Pres: 1020.32 mb

   
It's currently Sunny.  We can see water now on the ice in areas(the blueish areas) that will be melt ponds within a couple days.



 

It is co-located with ITP70.  Which means it's sitting on a river of horse torching water about 45-50M currently below the surface fresh water layer.  In a couple weeks we may see this layer destabilize.  Hopefully no sooner or things would be much worse than we currently think.  But it will take melt ponds and surface melting to get this mixing engine going at some point.  Ice fracturing will help and will happen so there is that.




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1391 on: June 19, 2014, 10:03:17 AM »
I am not a specialist but SIA could be relevant at 50 %, the ideal would be to have two values, an other one at 90 % concentration. It is too late to play with numbers the ice will be gone within few years...Observation of the state of the ice like we do here is best...
« Last Edit: June 19, 2014, 10:24:36 PM by Laurent »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1392 on: June 19, 2014, 10:31:23 AM »
Not to step on Jimmy Hunts shoes.

Full Sun, near 1C= big time melting going on at the surface level.

<snippage> 
It's currently Sunny.  We can see water now on the ice in areas(the blueish areas) that will be melt ponds within a couple days.

<more snippage>

The change in weather regime is profound, and we may see changes.  At this point, I'll believe in melt ponds when I actually start seeing them.  Albedo counts for a lot, and it is still high over a very large portion of the CAB.

My quibbles over SIA have far less to do with the CAB and other areas north of 75 than where melt is actively underway, and the very high albedo of snow covered ice has been seriously undermined.

I really very much wish we had some means of tracking energy transfer;

Ice Melted (gained) in CC really can be summarized as:

Net joules from: 
(Sunlight + imported heat from weather + imported/stored heat from currents + subcrustal heat)
Minus
(Albedo loss + re-radiation + sensible heat distributed to other parts of the system)
 Divided by 334

It all - weather, currents, seasonal insolation changes, whatever - condenses down to just that.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1393 on: June 19, 2014, 10:38:35 AM »
Not to step on Jimmy Hunts shoes.
You're not stepping on my shoes. However whilst my late Mama insisted on calling me James, these days I'm only ever called Jimmy on pseudo-skeptical blogs. I'd be grateful if you could refrain from doing so here.

Quote
It's currently Sunny.  We can see water now on the ice in areas(the blueish areas) that will be melt ponds within a couple days.

Meanwhile at the other end of the Beaufort, which is sadly lacking in webcams, the ice is turning blue and some large holes are now visible through the clouds:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#Beaufort

P.S. Prompted by a discussion on another thread, perhaps I should point out that ACNFS currently claims there is multi-meter thick multi-year ice where those holes are. ACNFS also shows a little blue "hole" very close to the North Pole!
« Last Edit: June 19, 2014, 01:02:44 PM by Jim Hunt »
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JayW

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1394 on: June 19, 2014, 11:40:59 AM »
What is the fastest area has gone down in a week?

CT SIA dropped by 1.33 million km2 over a seven-day stretch from 0.4877 through 0.5042 (28 June-04 July) in 1988. That period also saw the largest four-, five-, and six-day losses in the CT area record. (FWIW, 2012 had the largest eight-, nine-, and ten-day losses, but could only manage third on the seven-day list.)

Anyway, as others have said, I enjoy--even admire--your enthusiasm. And I'll admit that it takes a lot of courage to make such bold and public predictions as you so often do. But when those forecasts make frequent use of colorful and promising terms such as "torched", "brutal", "demolished", "beating", "onslaught", and "major flushing", and then for weeks on end nothing that fits those terms actually comes to pass, it becomes more and more difficult to defend them.

I watch the ice closely. Very closely. And with area being over a million km2 behind 2012 (after today's numbers come in tomorrow), and the extent gap between 2012 and 2014 at 421,000 km2 and growing, and with no promise of an early August Arctic cyclone such as 2012 saw, and with last year's bizarre behavior--area increasing by 81k over an eight-day early August stretch where normally it drops by half-a-million or so--and with the persistent low temperatures across the area, and with this year's dearth of early, low-albedo melt ponds, and so on--well, I don't believe anything remotely close to a record is going to happen this year. In fact, while I believe 2014's various minima will for the most part be lower than 2013's, those may be perhaps by only the thinnest of margins...

I happened to be checking Dr. Slater's site, a.k.a. Blizzard_of_Oz (what a great handle by the way), and I noticed his Slater Probabilistic Ice Extent (SPIE) shows an uptick in early August. :-\  Say it ain't so, Doc!   I know it seems highly unlikely to happen two years in a row, but I have learned to never doubt the weather.  At least this year I can be somewhat prepared for disappointment were this to come to fruition, back to watching and waiting.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1395 on: June 19, 2014, 12:21:36 PM »
The Kara is well exposed today to warm inflow.  sunny skies soaking up that 500w/m2.


Wipneaus home brew showed a -62K Kara loss for today in area.  We can see why.

Big melt day there.  The ice doesn't look to good and the models hit the area hard.

The area between the laptev and kara has been shrouded in clouds for so long.  Getting at least a peak at it and it looks bad.







I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1396 on: June 19, 2014, 12:29:54 PM »

I happened to be checking Dr. Slater's site, a.k.a. Blizzard_of_Oz (what a great handle by the way), and I noticed his Slater Probabilistic Ice Extent (SPIE) shows an uptick in early August. :-\  Say it ain't so, Doc!   I know it seems highly unlikely to happen two years in a row, but I have learned to never doubt the weather.  At least this year I can be somewhat prepared for disappointment were this to come to fruition, back to watching and waiting.

AIUI if there is an increase in high concentration area now then the method will show an upswing in extent in 50 days time. So if fast ice fragments and spreads out to covering a larger area with 100% concentration (but thinner cover) the method seems likely to show an upswing. I wouldn't put much faith in that upswing occurring. Having said that, a hindcast of 2009 did successfully predict an upswing in August but the model noticeably overdid it:

http://www.arcus.org/sipn/meetings/workshops/april-2014
Day 2 morning video  minutes 22-24

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1397 on: June 19, 2014, 06:28:15 PM »
After a quick surface freeze up in the CAB last night(temps in the -1C to -2C range.  Full sun is blasting 2013F.


I'd expect temps to reach back into the 1-2C range today.  You can see on Jaxa the bubble of blue next to the swath of grey near the shore in the CAB.  The second scan later today will lose the blue and show us if the area of actual melt ponding moved any further into the CAB.

It might take another day or two for it to move up towards 77N+



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1398 on: June 19, 2014, 07:10:10 PM »
12z GFS is nasty.

Looks to be rebuilding the ridge in the medium range.  Not that it cools off or anything between oscillations.




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1399 on: June 19, 2014, 07:10:37 PM »
Has anyone been checking up on HYCOM?

1 Jun 2012
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012053118_2012060100_035_arcticictn.001.gif

19 Jun 2012
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012061818_2012061900_035_arcticictn.001.gif

1 Jun 2014
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2014060118_2014060100_039_arcticictn.001.gif

19 Jun 2014
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2014061818_2014061900_039_arcticictn.001.gif

I've done them like that so people can 'blink compare' by opening up seperate windows and 'alt-tab' between them. But as in 2012, 2014 has been thinning. Volume takes energy to be removed so there is a fundamental limit on removing volume - available energy input. This is not the case for area/extent. For sufficiently thin ice, given good melt weather area and extent can drop precipitously if the ice has thinned.

2014 was terrible melt weather. Now that we are near the solstice with clear skies and thin cloud under a dominant high pressure regime, and low pressure over Siberia forming a dipole tendency, the 'fat lady' hasn't stopped singing, she's only just getting started.

I'm not saying 2014 will rival 2012, I think we've missed that boat. But as for matching 2007 and 2011, I would not dismiss that. Anyway, I'm bored of daily waiting for something to happen, I'm going to do something else for a while.