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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1500 on: June 22, 2014, 10:21:56 PM »
That may be the reason I don't look in the mirror. ;D

I'm reminded that we have colleagues who say the climate change we are creating is making it possible for weather to be more significant in metrics like Arctic SIA than it was in the climate of our grandparent's day (or great-grandparent's day if you're of my daughters' generation).

Models that best describe the "Climate Wierding" we're experiencing predict drier dry spells and wetter wet spells, etc., by changing (among other things) jet stream patterns.  One of these years a "stuck" jet stream will virtually clear the Arctic of ice.  Another year's "stuck" jet stream will make the What's Up (don't they know?) folks gleeful.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

wili

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1501 on: June 22, 2014, 10:29:15 PM »
As friv has pointed out, the sw CA is getting a lot of heat right now. Looking at the loop the jet stream is taking over it helps explain why:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-117.30,72.16,289
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1502 on: June 23, 2014, 03:25:21 AM »
Thanks for that clear exposition, ktonine. If 2013 had continued on the trajectory it was following just before it flat lined, it would have surpassed all other years in just a few days.

What all this really convinces me of is that guessing end-of-melt-season are and extend with any sharp accuracy is pretty much a fools game (and I'm playin'!  ;D).

I think it's clearer if you look at snow cover. 2012 at this point in the season had lost its snow almost everywhere except the region between Greenland and the North Pole. 2013 would not reach that point until around July 16th. Right now we are, judging by MODIS, right about where we were on July 8 (2013) or June 7 (2012) snowcover wise.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1503 on: June 23, 2014, 06:47:14 AM »
Jaxa had it's 3rd century drop in 4 days now. 


-319.018KM2 below 2007.
-460,426KM2 below 2014.


Quote
IJIS:    9,962,606 km2 (June 22, 2014) down 110,560 km2 from previous.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

davidsanger

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1504 on: June 23, 2014, 06:55:27 AM »
..2014 is so far behind that catching up to any of the bottom three years is moving further out of the realm of possibility with each day that passes.

Not sure about that for JAXA extent. 2014 was 508K above all time low for the date on 6/13 and now has closed the gap to 317K (though it got as close as 80K above all time minimum in mid-May)

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1505 on: June 23, 2014, 07:18:21 AM »
The GFS is really bad thru the rest of the month.  It shows some potential cold pool formation into early July but that is nothing of consequence yet.

The rest of the month is a roast.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1506 on: June 23, 2014, 07:30:29 AM »
Albedo loss is now almost everywhere outside the most protected regions.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1507 on: June 23, 2014, 08:05:53 AM »
So here is some wild torching going on in the CAB region.

Remember we are well past peak heating now.  5.0C+ Dew Points advecting into the arctic basin is nasty. 

Quote
    Sachs Harbour Airport
Date:
    11:00 PM MDT Sunday 22 June 2014
Condition:
    Not observed

Temperature:
    8.6°C
Dewpoint:
    5.0°C

Humidity:
    78%
Wind:
    SE 30 km/h



Normals are 8C or highs 2C for lows.


Quote
Tonight, 22 June
    Increasing cloudiness early this evening. Wind southeast 50 km/h gusting to 70 diminishing to 30 this evening. Temperature steady near 9.
Monday, 23 June
    Clearing in the morning. Wind southeast 20 km/h becoming light in the afternoon. High 16. UV index 4 or moderate.
Monday night, 23 June
    Sunny. Low 10.
Tuesday, 24 June
    Sunny. High 16.
Wednesday, 25 June
    A mix of sun and cloud. Low 8. High 8.
Thursday, 26 June
    Sunny. Low zero. High 12.
Friday, 27 June
    A mix of sun and cloud. Low 6. High 9.
Saturday, 28 June
    A mix of sun and cloud. Low 6. High 9.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

werther

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1508 on: June 23, 2014, 08:13:08 AM »
I'm trying to make out on MODIS whether this is similar this year, but a lot of cloud cover or fog  is still stubbornly over the place.

Tried again today day 173. Clear view about 130 km to the East. Not straight over the Pole, as Webcam 2 illustrates (though the position of the cam has probably drifted).
However, there's indication that there are at least several open water areas up to 2.5 km2 within 20 km radius from the Pole.
That would suggest a condition quite similar to the same date last year.

Let's wait for the moment the sun creeps in.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1509 on: June 23, 2014, 09:29:09 AM »
Albedo loss is now almost everywhere outside the most protected regions.

Noticed that as well. In particular I was fascinated to see significant melt ponding in the fiords of Baffin, Ellesmere and NW Greenland, as well as in many of the channels in the CAA.  We may see an open NW passage this year in spite of serious earlier indications it would remain closed.

Also, there is a lot of "blue" starting to show up in the CAB just north of the Chukchi and Beaufort.

Checking wind flow at all levels, there is a strong trend running from the Bering straight towards Franz Joseph land. We may see some export into the Barents north of Svalbard. And ice heading that way is just as much toast as that exiting the basin via the Fram.

Blast those unpredictable dice...!
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werther

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1510 on: June 23, 2014, 10:47:53 AM »
Wipneus, JDAllen, apparently a lot of our Group are looking for signs in the CAB that could indicate where this season is heading.

My interpretation is there’s basically the same fragmentation as there was last year (MODIS tiles r03c04 and r04c04; Frantsa Yosefa – East Sib Sea region). But concentration is higher.
This could be caused through three main differences compared to last year. First, the dominant PAC2013 splintered the pack apart then, spreading out over larger extent within the confines of the Arctic Basin. Second, under the SLP-pattern then, the Beaufort region was a tad cooler, the Frantsa Yosefa warmer than this year. Third, this year there’s more wind driven polynia formation in the ESS, Laptev and Beaufort, supporting concentration

The similarities should also be named. SLP-pattern is quite the same, although there’s no spectacular feature like PAC2013 between the Pole and the New Sib Islands. The positioning of higher SLP near Bering Strait and Novaya Zemlya is thus, that warmer air can more easily pass into the Beaufort and Kara region than last year.

I expect no straightforward return of the 2007-2012 dipole trend. Similarities with the general pattern last year will probably continue. DMI temps +80dN do point in that direction, too. Main reason for this suggestion is the importance I give to far out teleconnections through the NH troposphere. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a very complicated ENSO situation make me repeat my expectations that the main effects of AGW will be spread out over the Globe and not concentrate on a spectacular Arctic melt season.

That said, following the ride together with you all still makes for a great, though ambivalent, passing of time…

Phil.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1511 on: June 23, 2014, 12:26:25 PM »
I'm trying to make out on MODIS whether this is similar this year, but a lot of cloud cover or fog  is still stubbornly over the place.

Tried again today day 173. Clear view about 130 km to the East. Not straight over the Pole, as Webcam 2 illustrates (though the position of the cam has probably drifted).


Current position is 85.048°N   14.830°E

werther

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1512 on: June 23, 2014, 12:39:23 PM »
Thanks, Phil,

So it is already over the Gakkel Ridge, almost halfway the Pole and Svalbard. Not really relevant for the actual sit at the Pole...

JayW

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1513 on: June 23, 2014, 12:53:32 PM »
Figured I would post the CFSv2 anomaly and extent forecast graphs that Bastardi and the WUWT folks are apparently pinning their hopes on.  Guess we well have to see how it plays out.  I see at the bottom, comments directed to Wanqiu Wang, is this the same, infamous Wang I keep hearing about?

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/


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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1514 on: June 23, 2014, 01:46:31 PM »
Tried again today day 173. Clear view about 130 km to the East. Not straight over the Pole, as Webcam 2 illustrates (though the position of the cam has probably drifted).
Actually O-bouy #9 is much closer to the pole at the moment (ca 88°N), unfortunately the camera hasn't updated in five days.
http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy9/gps

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1515 on: June 23, 2014, 02:13:11 PM »
Jaxa had it's 3rd century drop in 4 days now. 


-319.018KM2 below 2007.
-460,426KM2 below 2014.


Quote
IJIS:    9,962,606 km2 (June 22, 2014) down 110,560 km2 from previous.

The 2010 decade-to-date average JAXA loss over the next 21 days has been just under 100k a per day (96,843k); if the 103k average we've seen over the past four days can persist, 2014 will catch up to that decadal average in roughly a week and a half, and will actually be below that average by the end of the three-week period.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1516 on: June 23, 2014, 05:54:24 PM »
Jaxa had it's 3rd century drop in 4 days now. 


-319.018KM2 below 2007.
-460,426KM2 below 2014.


Quote
IJIS:    9,962,606 km2 (June 22, 2014) down 110,560 km2 from previous.

The 2010 decade-to-date average JAXA loss over the next 21 days has been just under 100k a per day (96,843k); if the 103k average we've seen over the past four days can persist, 2014 will catch up to that decadal average in roughly a week and a half, and will actually be below that average by the end of the three-week period.
I suspect it will persist until we see the peripheral areas clear... Hudson, Baffin, Kara and Beaufort and Laptev/ESS.  As Werther observed elsewhere, we are all wondering if the CAA may act as this year's bastion for the ice.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1517 on: June 23, 2014, 06:31:30 PM »
With the NSIDC extent, and using a 5 day mean, the last 2 days have seen the 1st and 2nd >100k drops of the year so far. The latest loss, of -120k, was the largest 1 day drop since July 16th last year.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1518 on: June 23, 2014, 06:53:22 PM »
A fleeting glimpse of the North Pole through the clouds today:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#Pole
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1519 on: June 23, 2014, 07:25:01 PM »
A fleeting glimpse of the North Pole through the clouds today...
Actually, compared to what glimpses I can get on worldview, 2012 at the same time looked far better off.

Try looking at June 30 2012

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1520 on: June 23, 2014, 07:46:49 PM »
The GFS is not good folks.  Look at the rebuilding of the huge ridge.  On top of that it's warm and the ESS gets really torched hard.

The Kara is toast.







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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1521 on: June 23, 2014, 07:48:20 PM »
Try looking at June 30 2012

I reckon you need to go to July 2nd 2012 before you can see much through the clouds. As you say, things looked a lot more solid two years ago than they do today.

http://1.usa.gov/1m6bYzt
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1522 on: June 23, 2014, 08:01:35 PM »
Try looking at June 30 2012

I reckon you need to go to July 2nd 2012 before you can see much through the clouds. As you say, things looked a lot more solid two years ago than they do today.

http://1.usa.gov/1m6bYzt
Would it then be reasonable to conclude that the state of the ice in the CAB at this juncture cannot be seen as indicative of the eventual state of the ice at minimum?
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1523 on: June 23, 2014, 09:14:35 PM »
EURO 12 run differs quite much from GFS 12z run.. While the latter rebuilds the HP the former doesn't in the about +144h... I hope GFS wins but believe that the EURO will be the winner in the end.. We should at least see a good melt pattern rest of this month though...

//LMV

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1524 on: June 23, 2014, 09:29:49 PM »
Would it then be reasonable to conclude that the state of the ice in the CAB at this juncture cannot be seen as indicative of the eventual state of the ice at minimum?

I'd say so.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1525 on: June 23, 2014, 09:50:59 PM »
Try looking at June 30 2012

I reckon you need to go to July 2nd 2012 before you can see much through the clouds. As you say, things looked a lot more solid two years ago than they do today.


2013 is totally underrated in terms of its long range effects. 2012 melted a lot of ice, but 2013 *destroyed* the pack ice. Yeah, the weather turned at the end of the season so it looked like an uneventful year, but the damage was already done. So far, this year looks like 2013, only with the whole cap shoved over toward Svalbard. It's still highly fractured, but not as spread out as last year. But that only means a steady wind can blow more ice into the north Atlantic to melt -- the ice has no structural integrity to hold it back.

Things have changed. Even "normal" weather is going to lead to very low end-of-season ice. Maybe not record low, but top (bottom?) five kind of low. 2012 and 2013 were a one-two punch that I doubt the arctic will ever recover from. Unless we get a couple of very cold years in a row (and, let's face it, what are the odds of that?), we've only got a couple of years until we're betting on what day in August we hit 95% melt. Depressing.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1526 on: June 23, 2014, 09:52:56 PM »
Would it then be reasonable to conclude that the state of the ice in the CAB at this juncture cannot be seen as indicative of the eventual state of the ice at minimum?

I'd say so too. The ice looks still to be fragmented all the way to the Pole. There's an anecdotal tale of a considerable amount of swimming being required to reach it earlier this year, and another of Barneo 2014 being situated on rather thin ice.  The instrumentation left behind (although no longer at the Pole) shows bottom melt started earlier this month.

All in all, and as Chris previously put it, the fat lady has barely started singing yet. She certainly hasn't finished (all IMHO!)
« Last Edit: June 23, 2014, 10:15:48 PM by Jim Hunt »
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werther

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1527 on: June 23, 2014, 10:03:50 PM »
Would it then be reasonable to conclude that the state of the ice in the CAB at this juncture cannot be seen as indicative of the eventual state of the ice at minimum?

The CAB, 4.4 Mkm2, doesn’t correspond with the actual ‘stronghold’ of ‘mesh-pattern’ pack ice that in 2012 was centered some 400 km NW of Ellesmere Island.

Until late July 2012, the section around the Pole was still well within the ‘stronghold’. After GAC2012 structure was lost over a large part of the pack ice. Since, the Pole section has been in an environment that is prone to fragmentation.  And the whole stronghold became subject to large scale mobility. Winter ’12-’13 that showed in massive deplacement into the Beaufort region.

During summer ’13, the ‘state’ or quality of the ‘stronghold’ didn’t get better. That’s an understatement. It actually got off on the brink of losing its remaining coherence. A month of dipole anomaly would have wrecked the lot. I’m discarding extent/area here, even volume. You can make your own assessment about the relevance.

Of course, the pattern this year doesn’t further degrade the ‘stronghold’. At least, not more than a normal summer does. Some compaction naturally protects the coherence.
It doesn’t get better either. And as ‘winter-power’ gradually seems to weaken over the Arctic each year, the wait is for the right set-up of both climatic teleconnections and weather to ‘make the kill’.

It will be an exciting and awful period. I have a hunch it will happen in concert with the re-appearance of stored ocean heat. That’s why PDO/ENSO is to be watched as closely as the ice for clues.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1528 on: June 23, 2014, 10:05:27 PM »
Telling us nothing about what is to come, but....

Taking the period from the 18 June when the dominant high switch occurred, to 22 June, the latest data from NSIDC Extent. 2011 saw losses of 0.364 million kmsq, 2012 lost 0.340 million kmsq, 2013 lost 0.314 million kmsq. In the same period 2014 has lost 0.599 million kmsq.

Average losses for the 1980 to 1999 period over those dates was 0.269 million kmsq. 2010 is the third greatest loss for this period, 1999 (-0.698) and 2010 (-0.631) being first and second place. what is significant is that fourth place (2007) is only -0.495.

From 17 June to 22 June, 2014 has risen from 7th to 5th place.

werther

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1529 on: June 23, 2014, 10:19:00 PM »
Bruce, hi,

I'd suggest a specification for the movement within the pack-ice this year. The part driven into the Svalbard region is mainly what was 'splinter-zone' remaining FYI last summer.
The 'stronghold' didn't move much.
For ice quality and cohesion, I agree with you.

Without the 'kill' I posted about, showing as a complete fragmentation and spread of the stronghold (not a complete melt-out yet), most people will concentrate on the extent, area and volume digits coming September.

Perfectly normal, considering our 'scientific method'.
What isn't measured, isn't happening...???

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1530 on: June 23, 2014, 10:25:20 PM »
Quote
The ice looks still to be fragmented all the way to the Pole

Is it possible that some clever person might figure out a way to put an objective number to that fragmentation?  Perhaps there's someway to generate at least rough numbers for the missing metric - the quality of the remaining ice.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1531 on: June 23, 2014, 10:53:27 PM »
The Beaufort/"CAB"(Canadian Arctic Basin) is getting annihilated today.

After a line of showers or foggy drizzle that about 3-4 hours ago was well into the basin and is still effecting buoy.

But there is a huge torch blowing off shore into the Beaufort region with a huge area of crystal clear and warm skies we can see on the morning scan of the Beaufort region.

The satellite will rescan the CAB region again in 3-5 hours during peak heating.  We could see a huge increase in melt ponds/straight up water on ice/and compaction.

Looking at the channel 89ghz scan. 







I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1532 on: June 23, 2014, 11:06:47 PM »
Holy crap guys.  One week.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1533 on: June 24, 2014, 12:20:56 AM »
What isn't measured, isn't happening...???

True dat. I wish I had the time. I'd take a shot at it: the concentration data should give a good approximation of the amount of ice moving through some arbitrary lines across the straits. Thickness would be a bigger guess, but there's at least some data floating (heh) around.

I doubt the number would be big, but it would be nice to have a ballpark estimate for the past few years.

DaddyBFree

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1534 on: June 24, 2014, 12:46:18 AM »
This might be the wrong thread for my question, but does anyone have any thoughts about today's earthquake (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/06/23/large-earthquake-near-alaska-triggers-tsunami-warning/) being related to uplift caused by melting ice, and will we be able to see any visible effects of the earthquake on the remaining pack ice?
Thanks!
ps: I realize we are talking about a quake a long ways from Greenland etc., but I do not know where the fault lines are.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2014, 12:52:24 AM by DaddyBFree »

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1535 on: June 24, 2014, 12:46:50 AM »
Quote
The ice looks still to be fragmented all the way to the Pole

Is it possible that some clever person might figure out a way to put an objective number to that fragmentation?  Perhaps there's someway to generate at least rough numbers for the missing metric - the quality of the remaining ice.
That'd be fun, too. If you had good images you could compute the area and circumference of all the ice chunks. Use thickness data to get a surface to volume ratio (or maybe just stick with circumference/area). Maybe divide it by the same metric computed for an idealized ice cap. 1 = happy ice, anything greater gives some idea of how vulnerable the ice is.

Hmm, it needs some work. Maybe need to work the ratio of ice to water in there, too. But I think there's something in there somewhere.


jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1536 on: June 24, 2014, 12:53:23 AM »
The Beaufort/"CAB"(Canadian Arctic Basin) is getting annihilated today.

After a line of showers or foggy drizzle that about 3-4 hours ago was well into the basin and is still effecting buoy.

But there is a huge torch blowing off shore into the Beaufort region with a huge area of crystal clear and warm skies we can see on the morning scan of the Beaufort region.

The satellite will rescan the CAB region again in 3-5 hours during peak heating.  We could see a huge increase in melt ponds/straight up water on ice/and compaction.

I am reminded of the collapse of the Beaufort in 2012, news of which is what drew me into this forum in earnest.
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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1537 on: June 24, 2014, 01:05:49 AM »
This might be the wrong thread for my question, but does anyone have any thoughts about today's earthquake (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/06/23/large-earthquake-near-alaska-triggers-tsunami-warning/) being related to uplift caused by melting ice, and will we be able to see any visible effects of the earthquake on the remaining pack ice?
Thanks!
Hey, a question in my field! Big earthquakes in the Aleutians are generally subduction events -- either a thrust event at the interface of the subducting and overriding plate, or a normal event within the subducting slab. Sometimes there is an oblique component. They're a quite common occurrence (geologically), due to tectonic activity, and almost certainly have nothing to do with melting ice.

The most likely way for the ice to be affected by an earthquake is via a tsunami. But the ice cap will largely be protected from any tsunami going its way by the narrowness of the Bering Strait. Even without the strait, however, tsunamis in the open ocean are very broad and low amplitude. If you were in a boat you'd be very unlikely to notice one going by. It's only when they get close to shore that they "bunch up" and create the large amplitude waves that do so much damage. So if a tsunami did go through the Arctic Ocean, only the near-shore ice would be likely to get chewed up.

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1538 on: June 24, 2014, 01:11:46 AM »
Quote
If you had good images you could compute the area and circumference of all the ice chunks.

Perhaps two separate numbers.  One for average hunk size (or some statistic that reported how badly fractured) and another for ice:water ratio.


Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1539 on: June 24, 2014, 02:05:51 AM »
Personally I think 2013 was better set up for a strong melt at this stage in the season than many give credit for and it poor weather later in the season that played a big part in the low amount of melt by September.

I've also felt that too little attention has been brought to the end of last year’s melting season. Looking at PIOMAS numbers it is clear that most damage was done in May 2013 (only assessing volume), with 2012 loosing over 1000 km^3 more ice than 2013. However, during August the gap also widened by 500 km^3, and including the last week of July in which melt stalled completely, volume difference grows to 600-700, that is despite 2012 volume loss for that period being more or less exactly the same as 1979-2001 average. If conditions had been very favorable for melt and matched the 2008 trend, then the 2013 volume minimum would actually have tied with, maybe even surpassed, 2012 (one might of course argue that would not have been realistic, but there is still a huge difference).

To say at this point that there is no chance, or an extremely small chance, of beating 2012 even though weather is more favorable than 2013, is in my opinion very hazardous in a post 2010 volume regime. Do not fall into the trap of believing that just because 2013 had unfavorable weather in the beginning of the season and failed to set a record, every year that supposedly has unfavorable weather in the beginning of the season also will fail to set a record.

DaddyBFree

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1540 on: June 24, 2014, 02:29:03 AM »
This might be the wrong thread for my question, but does anyone have any thoughts about today's earthquake (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/06/23/large-earthquake-near-alaska-triggers-tsunami-warning/) being related to uplift caused by melting ice, and will we be able to see any visible effects of the earthquake on the remaining pack ice?
Thanks!
Hey, a question in my field! Big earthquakes in the Aleutians are generally subduction events -- either a thrust event at the interface of the subducting and overriding plate, or a normal event within the subducting slab. Sometimes there is an oblique component. They're a quite common occurrence (geologically), due to tectonic activity, and almost certainly have nothing to do with melting ice.

The most likely way for the ice to be affected by an earthquake is via a tsunami. But the ice cap will largely be protected from any tsunami going its way by the narrowness of the Bering Strait. Even without the strait, however, tsunamis in the open ocean are very broad and low amplitude. If you were in a boat you'd be very unlikely to notice one going by. It's only when they get close to shore that they "bunch up" and create the large amplitude waves that do so much damage. So if a tsunami did go through the Arctic Ocean, only the near-shore ice would be likely to get chewed up.
Thanks Bruce! :)

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1541 on: June 24, 2014, 02:47:21 AM »
On this thickness plot, MYI at the north tip of Greenland appears to have started a couple of days ago to fragment on a large scale. Is this real or an artifact? If real, is it normal and what are its potential implications?



Thanks, d.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1542 on: June 24, 2014, 03:42:53 AM »
The Beaufort/"CAB"(Canadian Arctic Basin) is getting annihilated today.

After a line of showers or foggy drizzle that about 3-4 hours ago was well into the basin and is still effecting buoy.

But there is a huge torch blowing off shore into the Beaufort region with a huge area of crystal clear and warm skies we can see on the morning scan of the Beaufort region.

The satellite will rescan the CAB region again in 3-5 hours during peak heating.  We could see a huge increase in melt ponds/straight up water on ice/and compaction.

I am reminded of the collapse of the Beaufort in 2012, news of which is what drew me into this forum in earnest.

The Beaufort has gotten crushed.










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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1543 on: June 24, 2014, 05:29:22 AM »
Jaxa had another huge drop.  -126,658K.

The ice is not the same old ice.  Until that is accepted people will always underestimate ice loss.

Quote
2014 is now this much below these years.  While 2014 is below 2010, 2011, and 2012.

2013: -516,568K
2009: -495,657
2008: -460(Roughly)
2007: -401,000K
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Andreas T

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1544 on: June 24, 2014, 05:44:07 AM »
lurker, the animation you show is partly a forecast out to the 30th of June. The breakup is therefore largely yet to happen. To see for yourself have a look at https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413&time=2014-06-23&map=-281535.346678,-1015053.184885,767040.653322,-528653.184885
if the view isn't obscured by clouds I find this the most unambiguous information about the sea ice you can have. Of course it tells you very little about thickness but at least open water is obvious.
A quick overview of ice movement for a longer timeframe is http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/very-little-old-sea-ice-remains-arctic
there is also the archive of HYCOM model runs to look at previous years for comparison

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1545 on: June 24, 2014, 06:14:27 AM »
The Beaufort has gotten crushed.
Yeah, and look what's left. Might as well be ice cubes floating in the Caribbean.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2014174.terra

lanevn

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1546 on: June 24, 2014, 09:04:20 AM »
I am reminded of the collapse of the Beaufort in 2012, news of which is what drew me into this forum in earnest.

Maybe Neven's blog? This forum didn't exist that time.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1547 on: June 24, 2014, 09:36:32 AM »
I am reminded of the collapse of the Beaufort in 2012, news of which is what drew me into this forum in earnest.

Maybe Neven's blog? This forum didn't exist that time.
His blog for certain; I didn't start posting here until March 2013.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1548 on: June 24, 2014, 10:54:08 AM »
Andreas - Have you experimented with Worldview's short links yet? Here's one for the Aqua equivalent of Bruce's Beaufort image: http://1.usa.gov/1yIsAqS, and here's one for Northern Greenland, which will be interesting to look at later today:  http://1.usa.gov/1rtieGy.

There's also a variety of animations of this year's Arctic sea ice movements available at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-videos/summer-2014-videos/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1549 on: June 24, 2014, 11:04:34 AM »
If real, is it normal and what are its potential implications?

As you can see above, it is "real", and it does happen from time to time. See for example:

http://econnexus.org/the-day-after-tomorrow-coming-soon/

and

http://econnexus.org/a-new-world-view-from-nasa/

When the southerly winds stop blowing the lead usually closes up quite quickly. However I've never watched such an event at this time of year before, always assuming that what ACNFS predicts does actually occur!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein