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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1650 on: June 28, 2014, 05:55:03 AM »
A pulse of warm Pacific water into the shallow ESS might also melt a lot of methane hydrate.

You need to be careful about your definition of "warm".

The water won't be at depth, and it will only be at most, 1-2C warmer than what's currently there.  That will put it at right around 0C.

As I recall that's still low enough that we won't be looking at massive clathrate sublimation...

*Yet*.

Methane is a problem, and will factor significantly into the net heat balance at high latitudes over the short term (think decades to centuries). Mid-term (think millenia), it will contribute to CO2 build up, and ocean acidification.

*This* year, I do not think it will be an issue.
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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1651 on: June 28, 2014, 05:59:20 AM »
The smoke from the fires in Canada, which for the past few days was streaming toward Hudson Bay, has decided to take a break and now seems to be meandering over toward the CAA. Because, hey, it can't get any worse, right?

(Pics are from 6/25, 6/26, and 6/27.)

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1652 on: June 28, 2014, 06:17:16 AM »
Jaxa Sea Ice Extent down -184,199 June 27th.
Only 222,653 above the all-time low for the date (2010)


I think it was more like a -121K drop.  But yeah.  The basin continues to open up big time in spite of people like me totally over hyping the weather. :)


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ktonine

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1653 on: June 28, 2014, 06:35:09 AM »
I think it was more like a -121K drop.  But yeah.  The basin continues to open up big time in spite of people like me totally over hyping the weather. :)

Hmmm, I must have missed those posts .... besides, you're a piker compared to that mid-range forecast King guy ... I miss him already :)

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1654 on: June 28, 2014, 07:03:28 AM »
I think it was more like a -121K drop...

Yes of course, I forgot to update yesterday so that was the 2-day drop. thanks/fixed

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1655 on: June 28, 2014, 07:04:55 AM »
Hmmm, I must have missed those posts .... besides, you're a piker compared to that mid-range forecast King guy ... I miss him already :)

 :D ;D
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1656 on: June 28, 2014, 08:25:30 AM »
In all seriousness!!

As serious as a forgone(decade scale) inevitable outcome can be.

In regards to this season.  I can't preach it enough that 2013 was 1,000,000km2 in area above 2010 at this point.

TWENTY....20 day later 2013 fell below 2010 in area.

Then the weather for 2013 became uber favorable for ice retention and bad for ice in the 2010 year.

So what happens if we have warm to torchy weather the rest of the way?



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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1657 on: June 28, 2014, 08:55:21 AM »
In all seriousness!!

As serious as a forgone(decade scale) inevitable outcome can be.

In regards to this season.  I can't preach it enough that 2013 was 1,000,000km2 in area above 2010 at this point.

TWENTY....20 day later 2013 fell below 2010 in area.

Then the weather for 2013 became uber favorable for ice retention and bad for ice in the 2010 year.

So what happens if we have warm to torchy weather the rest of the way?

Yer preachin' to th' choir here, Friv...
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1658 on: June 28, 2014, 09:39:57 AM »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1659 on: June 28, 2014, 09:48:52 AM »
The GFS and Euro oscillate thru ridge cycles.

It will be cloudier at times I suppose.  But it's not going to stop any melting. 

I think this is bad weather. Others don't.

I asked earlier why it matters if mid level temps are 10C or 0C and how much it effects melting or why H5 heights(like 4500 meters up) matter versus lesser heights when surface pressure is high? 

I didn't get a response.

I asked a pro met friend he said relatively no difference to what happens at the surface unless it's really cloudy.  Like cyclone of 2013 cloudy.

I get tired of defending my position because then it makes me look more and more agenda and bias driven. 

I call this bad because surface melting never stops. 

Guess we will see.


I got a nickname for all my guns
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1660 on: June 28, 2014, 10:53:28 AM »

How does having 0c or 5C  temps at 1500M matter that much at the surface where there should be a stout surface inversion preventing mixing ? 

The entire basin is forecasted to be its  0C+ the entire period with anomalous high pressure and height fields. 

Does having 5C 850mb temps have an effects on solar insolation versus 0C 850MB temps?

If all else is equal surface ice albedo, full sun, same surface pressure and heights.

But one scenario has cooler low to mid level temps?


Why is the warmer mid levels solution so much worse for the ice?

To say the current euro forecast is not that bad?

I have to be missing something. This is about melting a sheet of ice not warming the lower troposphere.

I have seen 1.5C buoy temps With sunny skies and 0c. I have seen 1.5C buoy temps and with 10C+ 850mb temps.

Why would warmer temps aloft melt more ice?

First question, why the 850hPa temperatures? Take a look at any of the NSIDC analysis, they do not use surface temperatures over the Arctic. Using surface temperatures over areas with melting snow and ice has some serious limitations, so the surface temperatures get held back by the melting point of the ice and snow. This is clearly seen on the DMI graph for 80N.
Now, the NSIDC use 925hPa temperatures in their analysis, but seen as forecasted 925hPa temperatures anomalies for the Arctic are hard to find, I use the next closest common pressure level, 850hPa. The temperature here ties in well with surface conditions (not perfectly) and in my opinion, is better than using surface temperatures. The data is readily available as both absolute and anomaly values on the meteociel website.
Does that explain the use of 850hPa temperatures well enough?

As for why I said the euro forecast isn't that bad... I hope that makes sense in light of the explanation I just gave.

The GFS and Euro oscillate thru ridge cycles.

It will be cloudier at times I suppose.  But it's not going to stop any melting. 

I think this is bad weather. Others don't.

I asked earlier why it matters if mid level temps are 10C or 0C and how much it effects melting or why H5 heights(like 4500 meters up) matter versus lesser heights when surface pressure is high? 

I didn't get a response.

I asked a pro met friend he said relatively no difference to what happens at the surface unless it's really cloudy.  Like cyclone of 2013 cloudy.

I get tired of defending my position because then it makes me look more and more agenda and bias driven. 

I call this bad because surface melting never stops. 

Guess we will see.

If you care to look back at conditions in previous years, you'd see that the patterns, winds, temperature anomalies this summer have been quite normal, not "brutal", "terrible", "mother of God"-esque "torches".
Every year we get spells of high pressure, every year we get warm and cold air pulses, every year we get variable weather conditions at different points! What could justify calls of "brutal" would be persistent, anomalous conditions, such as a strong Arctic dipole, a very powerful storm over a weak and fragmented pack, massive temperatures anomalies (+10-20C), and other such things, not ordinary mid summer weather.

Last winter, for example, was highly anomalous. A large high pressure sat just south of Alaska and another over the Barents sea area. Both consistently fed large amounts of mild, mid-latitude air over the Arctic, contributing to one of the warmest winters on record.

Just because temperatures near the surface are around 0C in mid summer isn't anything dramatic, in fact, it is completely normal!


Look Friv, nobody is attacking you or making you defend yourself. In fact, while I disagree with your sensationalist style, my posts from earlier were just my point of view and made no reference whatsoever to yours. You are the one that felt the need to jump in and demand an explanation for someone else having a different viewpoint.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1661 on: June 28, 2014, 11:12:57 AM »
With all due respect NSIDC using 925mb temps tells me zero about how much it effects the surface melting.

Can you give me examples of how much of an effect it has say 0c 850mb temps versus 10c 850mb temps.  Both full sunshine, same surface pressure.

Just lay it out in math terms how one will melt a lot more ice then the other with the same conditions at the surface?

I want to know how and why?  Please?


People can have any view they want.

You just haven't given me any reason to believe melting is enhanced by mid level temps being warm if the surface is the same regardless.



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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1662 on: June 28, 2014, 11:30:02 AM »
If you think I am full of hyperbole and sensationalism that is fine.  Jaxa is currently 4th lowest on record.

We have the 4th lowest ice extent in thousands of years attm during this period of the Earths yearly rotation in the Northern Hemisphere. 

We could look at it like it's the 4th lowest out of 42 years of microwave data. 4th lowest out of 150 years of reconstruction data.  4th lowest out of 1400 years of proxy data.

Maybe I interject to much of one thing or another together and call it bad. 

But that looks pretty bad to me.

If you don't agree that's fine.  If you think the up coming, current, and most recent weather hasn't been as bad as I think and have expressed that's fine.

I assumed as long as the surface is melting and it's fairly sunny in the arctic in early July it was bad and that heights/mid level temps don't add much to the melt.  You are telling me they would make it worse or "bad" in your view. Which is fine.

I just want to know how?  Because if that is the case then my perception of reality is broken here that's why it's big deal to me to know the hows and whys other then potentially clear skies heights and temps way above the surface of a huge ice sheet matter?


My apologies for the abrasiveness of my post. 

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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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werther

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1663 on: June 28, 2014, 11:58:05 AM »
Did some recap with NCEP/NCAR 21 to 25 May.

This last week was bad for the sea ice. It isn't immediately clear on 1000Mb Temp. Discarding the (very important) regional differences, '13 was a tad colder, '12 a bit warmer.
For 1000Mb SLP the diff's become more exposed. Compared to '12, a massive Low over the Pole, this year had a pattern much more like '10 and '11, both undergoing a strong June cliff. Much more 'dipole-like'. BTW last year, '13, showed extensive low pressure; I remember clouds prohibiting an opportunity to do my 'North Greenland count'.

Last weeks' pattern drew in a strong Southern flow from North America. It showed on 1000Mb, worsening the Beaufort ice. But it even showed stronger on 925Mb; a warm tongue extending almost to Severnaya Zemlya and Frantsa Yosefa!
It appears to me that the bright high pressure weather allowed a good tropospheric warming (in situ as well as transported) except for the boundary layer. There, the influence of strong sunlight driven melt/evaporation of the snow- and upper ice layers could have kept actual temps low.

It could be that this situation, when it lasts longer, will lower albedo rapidly and thus put the season on a not much expected path to strong melt. At least, my expectations.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1664 on: June 28, 2014, 12:28:07 PM »

Can you give me examples of how much of an effect it has say 0c 850mb temps versus 10c 850mb temps.  Both full sunshine, same surface pressure.


If the temperature is 10c warmer at 850mb I would bet big dollars it will also be warmer at the surface.  Unless some effect such as cloud shading, or melting/evaporation/albedo changes etc causes a localised cooling or heating at the surface.

A few days ago the high and low pressure around beaufort lined up nicely to see warm air drawn from the north American continent and this was seen in the models with a tongue of 8-12 degree temps at 850 intruding onto the Beaufort.  This resulted in one of the more spectacular transitions I've seen with the Beaufort ice going from solid and white non-melting ice to grey/blue broken up strongly melting ice.  As the winds in this region have weakened and become less southerly the 850 temps have cooled and the melt has reduced (at least according to Jaxa).  Current model runs suggest that in the coming week there will be less intrusion of warm air from outside the Arctic, and it is no surprise that 850 temps are predicted to cool.  I'd expect surface melt on the ice to slow as well reflecting a genuinely cooler air mass - however I'm not sure if a generally slack high pressure dominated pattern may result in less clouds and  more sunshine to keep melt going at the same speed.

I'm also quite surprised that despite the apparently warm Arctic conditions MODIS continues to show significant areas of orange non-surface melt areas in the Arctic - mostly between Greenland/Canadian Archipelago and North Pole.  In 2013 everything not hidden by clouds turned red nearly a week ago, and in 2012 two or three weeks ago.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1665 on: June 28, 2014, 12:47:32 PM »
Friv, I believe higher temps at 1000m - 2000 m of pressure altitude may indicate (not always) displacement of warm air masses at these altitudes and below, down to surface level. At surface, those winds generate a turbulent mixing layer. Close to surface air transfers heat to ice-snow that melts, the air acquiring the melting temperature 0C. This air keeps mixing with warmer air pretty quickly thanks to the wind-surface turbulence and receives heat from warmer layers above. The process continues for tens to hundreds of miles (like that tongue Werther mentioned) until available heat gone or wind current ceased. That can be very bad for ice as you know. If you see 2m map, you cant see much (just close to 0C), but the 850mb map may be showing this thing is happening (not always)

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1666 on: June 28, 2014, 01:01:14 PM »
And the opposite (freezing effect) if the airmass is cold.
Btw if there is no air displacement, a cold spot at 850 mb over a HP does not mean good nor bad for melting necessarily. It may appear in persistent HP with sunshine precisely because still air has been transferring heat to the surface below. Happens a lot in winter inland, or so i was told in school

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1667 on: June 28, 2014, 01:24:20 PM »
Surface melt has started at buoy 2014B, currently around 75° N in the Chukchi Sea.

Surface melt started a while ago at the buoys in the Beaufort Marginal Ice Zone. Cluster 4 is currently about 74.5° N:

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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1668 on: June 28, 2014, 01:28:37 PM »
"I believe higher temps at 1000m - 2000 m of pressure altitude may indicate (not always) displacement of warm air masses at these altitudes and below, down to surface level"

I understand this. Do you have any insight into what would tell us that the displacement is or isn't happening? I am guessing that the only time this wouldn't be the case is when we have a very clean laminar flow of air so that no mixing or interchange occurs, but haven't the slightest idea how to recognize that in the maps . . .

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1669 on: June 28, 2014, 01:42:31 PM »
I guess we are at the "nasty time of the summer" for the sea ice.  There looks to be a significant intrusion of warm air into far northwestern Canada in a few days.....and the heat from central Siberia (Russia) is also spreading northward in several days as well.

The last week was rather nasty for melt.  This next week is setting up to be significantly worse.

Also have Siberian fires to contend with.  Any black soot this time of year will not be good unless you like a lot of melt.

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seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1670 on: June 28, 2014, 02:23:04 PM »
I understand this. Do you have any insight into what would tell us that the displacement is or isn't happening? I am guessing that the only time this wouldn't be the case is when we have a very clean laminar flow of air so that no mixing or interchange occurs, but haven't the slightest idea how to recognize that in the maps . . .

I know stuff about fluid dynamics, but just this and that about meteorology. So I can't help you much. I'd say isobars will tell you how strong wind current is.
With a couple of knots, the flow already becomes turbulent above the surface (within the so-called planetary boundary layer). But how strong the mix is and how deep the flow goes, depends on the wind force.

BTW, the other thing I said about still air in the core of a HP area, forget it, it might as well be the opposite. You see my ignorance,  ???

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1671 on: June 28, 2014, 03:02:13 PM »
If you think I am full of hyperbole and sensationalism that is fine.  Jaxa is currently 4th lowest on record.

We have the 4th lowest ice extent in thousands of years attm during this period of the Earths yearly rotation in the Northern Hemisphere. 

We could look at it like it's the 4th lowest out of 42 years of microwave data. 4th lowest out of 150 years of reconstruction data.  4th lowest out of 1400 years of proxy data.

Maybe I interject to much of one thing or another together and call it bad. 

But that looks pretty bad to me.

If you don't agree that's fine.  If you think the up coming, current, and most recent weather hasn't been as bad as I think and have expressed that's fine.

This is a good point that resonates strongly in me, because I notice in myself this tendency to think: "Oh, it's not like 2012, everything's normal". But it's far from normal, of course. I have to try and keep that tone on the ASIB, as people get used so easily to radical changes. That's a good trait, but not when you need to get your ass in gear to prevent future sh*t.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1672 on: June 28, 2014, 03:16:05 PM »
I assumed the inversion at the surface would pretty much nix mixing.  And most summer ice melt comes from the sun.

We don't have soundings as far as I am aware over the sea ice like from a couple hundred miles into the pack.

We have evidence of still dry snow covered surfaces or only partially melted on the NA Side of the arctic where 850mb temps have been 0c+ with upwards of 500w/m2 shining down. 

The heat in the lower troposphere with decent mixing to the surface would turn those areas into a soup sandwich in a day or two.

After a few days of this visible sat images still show mostly dry snow.

Which would be expected if the only surface heating is from 25% of that insolation.

I assumed if mid level warmth was a player the ice would vanish dramatically faster


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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1673 on: June 28, 2014, 03:29:03 PM »
If you think I am full of hyperbole and sensationalism that is fine.  Jaxa is currently 4th lowest on record.

We have the 4th lowest ice extent in thousands of years attm during this period of the Earths yearly rotation in the Northern Hemisphere. 

We could look at it like it's the 4th lowest out of 42 years of microwave data. 4th lowest out of 150 years of reconstruction data.  4th lowest out of 1400 years of proxy data.

Maybe I interject to much of one thing or another together and call it bad. 

But that looks pretty bad to me.

If you don't agree that's fine.  If you think the up coming, current, and most recent weather hasn't been as bad as I think and have expressed that's fine.

This is a good point that resonates strongly in me, because I notice in myself this tendency to think: "Oh, it's not like 2012, everything's normal". But it's far from normal, of course. I have to try and keep that tone on the ASIB, as people get used so easily to radical changes. That's a good trait, but not when you need to get your ass in gear to prevent future sh*t.

It's not an indication of the weather this summer being good or bad.

Relatively speaking 2013 was bad. 

Nevertheless it prompted to go with a. 6.0 million+ Arcus June prediction. 

And yet 2014 is going to be lower then 2013 in extent, area, and volume.

At this point almost all retention of 2013 is lost unless directly compared to the 2012 mins.

That's terrible.  There's no growth year to year.  It's sad really




We also have to remember it takes so much less energy to get rid of this ice .

I'd love to see a study done with that 4-6 year old ice that is apparently about 1.5-2M on average thick in the Beaufort region and have it compared to MYI from the 1980s or 1990s.

I bet it's higher albedo/less salt properties have changed.
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1674 on: June 28, 2014, 04:18:45 PM »
How would the sat sensors show snow covered floes where the topography of the floe drained every drop of melt back into the ocean Friv? Would this just mimic what I see on fence posts over their melt with a crisp dry surface and run-off down the post?

I have been wondering about the fragmentation of a pack , and its impacts, since Feb 13'? Once the 'glue' between floes goes do they mechanically degrade on another no matter the temp? Do the floes grind a constant flow of slush puppie ice into the gaps between floes until such a time that surface melt matches the production of 'slush' and we start to see open water between well rounded floes?

Last year did not show us just how the different construct of this pack could make it behave  but I'm sure that , under the right conditions, this type of ice could both weather ice into ocean as well as presenting larger surface areas ( to mass) for warmth to attack?

This year looks more likely to provide us with a better understanding of what this young, heavily fragmented pack acts like under 'average' melt conditions?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1675 on: June 28, 2014, 04:45:44 PM »
It could be that this situation, when it lasts longer, will lower albedo rapidly and thus put the season on a not much expected path to strong melt. At least, my expectations.
You mean albedo changes kind of like this?  ;)

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1676 on: June 28, 2014, 05:02:50 PM »
I assumed the inversion at the surface would pretty much nix mixing.  And most summer ice melt comes from the sun.

We don't have soundings as far as I am aware over the sea ice like from a couple hundred miles into the pack.

We have evidence of still dry snow covered surfaces or only partially melted on the NA Side of the arctic where 850mb temps have been 0c+ with upwards of 500w/m2 shining down. 

The heat in the lower troposphere with decent mixing to the surface would turn those areas into a soup sandwich in a day or two.

After a few days of this visible sat images still show mostly dry snow.

Which would be expected if the only surface heating is from 25% of that insolation.

I assumed if mid level warmth was a player the ice would vanish dramatically faster

Don't forget you've also got diffuse IR at about 300W/m^2 which will be much better absorbed than the visible.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1677 on: June 28, 2014, 05:48:15 PM »
The June SLP composite graphic is starting to look a lot like the bad pattern then 2013 at all.

Maybe 2009 and 2014 both had higher amounts of snow over the ice pack delaying low level warming in spite of higher pressure regimes.






Here is 2009 for comparison.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1678 on: June 28, 2014, 06:22:54 PM »
How would the sat sensors show snow covered floes where the topography of the floe drained every drop of melt back into the ocean Friv? Would this just mimic what I see on fence posts over their melt with a crisp dry surface and run-off down the post?

I have been wondering about the fragmentation of a pack , and its impacts, since Feb 13'? Once the 'glue' between floes goes do they mechanically degrade on another no matter the temp? Do the floes grind a constant flow of slush puppie ice into the gaps between floes until such a time that surface melt matches the production of 'slush' and we start to see open water between well rounded floes?

Last year did not show us just how the different construct of this pack could make it behave  but I'm sure that , under the right conditions, this type of ice could both weather ice into ocean as well as presenting larger surface areas ( to mass) for warmth to attack?

This year looks more likely to provide us with a better understanding of what this young, heavily fragmented pack acts like under 'average' melt conditions?


Well once the snow is wet pending on the water concentration in the snow the sensor will believe it's picking up open water to some degree and concentration will drop.

A lot of times melt can go unnoticed by visible and sensors either because of clouds or time of day sampling.

But typically once the snow gets really wet and refreezes at night or period it's albedo is lower, it's water content is higher, and it typically comes in concentration wise a bit lower then the snow does.

Watch this graphic the next week.  We will see that deep purple dissapear and area will plummet hardcore.






I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1679 on: June 28, 2014, 08:45:43 PM »
the euro is a bloodbath. ridging and above normal temps through the run

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1680 on: June 28, 2014, 09:13:20 PM »
Oh my, oh my, oh my. The Euro is totaly crazy, I was digging in for cooler temps next week and now this? 180 degree turnaround. Almost looks like a model glitch.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1681 on: June 28, 2014, 09:15:25 PM »
I know this is wrong thread, but look at Greenland as well. Insanity through forecasting.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1682 on: June 28, 2014, 09:34:41 PM »
OMG guys as has been noted the Euro has ascended or something.

Maybe it's finally catching up with the albedo change + peak insolation + good blocking.

A vortex over the Baffin/Hudson region and another by England/Scandinavia is classic arctic blow torch patterns.

This run is crazy bad.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1683 on: June 28, 2014, 09:55:42 PM »
GIS gets destroyed. That would be near 100 percent melt over GIS.




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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1684 on: June 28, 2014, 10:10:28 PM »
SSTS are really picking up.  The Kara region ice is toast.  Warm water all in-between the ice now. 

The Baffin has warmed up a lot and is almost ice free. The East side of GIS waters are blow torching. 

Maybe it has something to do with the Euro solution which incorporates up to date ssts more so than the GFS.

Models show those SLPs moving thru areas with very very very warm and above normal SSTA. 

Craziness. 



I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1685 on: June 28, 2014, 11:13:34 PM »
GFS and ECMWF both pick up on a big low near Iceland.  Might generate some swells to impact the Atlantic side of the Arctic?  And the east coast of Greenland for sure.  ECMWF has it further south and some of the impact blocked by Iceland, whereas GFS shows it closer.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1686 on: June 28, 2014, 11:56:30 PM »
Impressive forecast. High times.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1687 on: June 29, 2014, 01:27:05 AM »
With all due respect NSIDC using 925mb temps tells me zero about how much it effects the surface melting.

Can you give me examples of how much of an effect it has say 0c 850mb temps versus 10c 850mb temps.  Both full sunshine, same surface pressure.

Just lay it out in math terms how one will melt a lot more ice then the other with the same conditions at the surface?

I want to know how and why?  Please?


People can have any view they want.

You just haven't given me any reason to believe melting is enhanced by mid level temps being warm if the surface is the same regardless.

Others have attempted to show you why 850hPa temperatures are a useful guide to anomalous air masses over the Arctic, and better than surface temperatures, which are held close to 0C and connot clearly show anomalous air masses. But, if their explanations or mine aren't enough, I'd suggest you email the NSIDC for an explanation on why they choose upper air temperatures over surface values. I've always found them friendly and helpful with any requests for data or explanations, I'm sure your experience would be similar.

If you think I am full of hyperbole and sensationalism that is fine.  Jaxa is currently 4th lowest on record.

We have the 4th lowest ice extent in thousands of years attm during this period of the Earths yearly rotation in the Northern Hemisphere. 

We could look at it like it's the 4th lowest out of 42 years of microwave data. 4th lowest out of 150 years of reconstruction data.  4th lowest out of 1400 years of proxy data.

Maybe I interject to much of one thing or another together and call it bad. 

But that looks pretty bad to me.

If you don't agree that's fine.  If you think the up coming, current, and most recent weather hasn't been as bad as I think and have expressed that's fine.

I assumed as long as the surface is melting and it's fairly sunny in the arctic in early July it was bad and that heights/mid level temps don't add much to the melt.  You are telling me they would make it worse or "bad" in your view. Which is fine.

I just want to know how?  Because if that is the case then my perception of reality is broken here that's why it's big deal to me to know the hows and whys other then potentially clear skies heights and temps way above the surface of a huge ice sheet matter?


My apologies for the abrasiveness of my post. 

The sea ice isn't 4th lowest because of the weather, but because of how weak the pack is. Please have a look at the 925hPa temperature charts below. They clearly show that temperatures have been average across the Arctic this summer so far, and nothing compared to the 2007-2012 period.






The air pressure pattern has been nothing bad either, generally below average pressure-wise, but I won't go filling more of the page with examples from previous years, the data is free for all to look up.

Just to reiterate, the weather so far this summer over the Arctic has not been bad/unusual/brutal/sunny/warm or whatever other melt promoting descriptions some want to use, it's been close to average. We currently have low sea ice due to the general poor state of the ice, combined with a very mild winter and Spring. Also, upper air temperatures (925/850hPa) are better indicators of the general air mass temperature than surface values over the Arctic, as they're not held at 0C due to the snow and ice.


Btw, the ECM is truly BRUTAL, but, it's clearly a glitch!
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1688 on: June 29, 2014, 01:31:41 AM »
Our little crack is taking on more impressive dimensions, and seems to have spawned a copycat that also curves north. And in the second photo, a "hairline" crack along the north coast of Greenland. A few more days at this rate, and this thing is going to turn into an event.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2014, 02:09:50 AM by Bruce »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1689 on: June 29, 2014, 02:18:26 AM »
Bornfromthevoid-

You seriously haven't told me anything about the effects of a low level air mass above a massive surface inversion created by the phase transfer of the snow/ice to liquid.

If that warmth mixed to the surface well the ice would melt out completely every summer.

I want to see some proof air 1000M above the surface can mix with the cooled surface air created from melting ice. 

If that is the case the ice should melt at outstanding rates anytime there is a high pressure with warm mid level temps but it doesn't.  It really hasn't ever.

The difference in total melt between 2013 and 2012 was roughly 1700km3 of ice.  That is nothing if warm mid level air was making it's way into the melting process at anything barely substantial above slightly cooler mid level air. 

In fact it's more likely the difference between 2013 and 2012 was much lower as 2012 saw a lot more flushing.  The actual direct melting difference was minimal.  Like 2-3CM basin wide. 

That's why I said if it's melting it's bad if not melting it's not bad. 

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas

Sea level pressure is above normal on the monthly average and will only increase as the month ends.








I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1690 on: June 29, 2014, 03:26:06 AM »
We all know - except maybe for Steve Goddard -- that the summertime N80 temps are closely tied to the melting point of the ice and snow.  For that reason temperature products can tell us little about the melting season.

We are not content to be ignorant.  If we have a buoy in the area of interest we extrapolate from that - though we don't know how wide an area it's really applicable to. We also seek proxies for the surface.  Obviously the 925mb and 850mb products are the logical proxies, but there are good physical reasons their usefulness is limited.  One only has to do a few comparisons to realize the correlation between temp at elevation and melt at surface is tenuous at best.

So while I appreciate the desire to look at 925 or 850 temps and draw inferences to what's happening at the surface, I find these are often just nonsensical.  They may be the best proxies we have available, but that doesn't mean they're always good proxies.  At this time of year if the sun's shining the ice and snow are melting and no 850 or 925 temp is going to convince me otherwise.

The other thing to bear in mind is the higher we go in elevation temps the more displacement there will generally be.  Sometimes I see 850mb temps reflecting surface features, but displaced by hundreds of km. 


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1691 on: June 29, 2014, 03:38:40 AM »
Friv, BFTV...

I think what the two of you are highlighting in your ongoing argument, is the turbulence and unpredictability that has crept... no... STORMED into the system over the last decade.

I think indicators and phenomena which previously were strongly correlated are increasingly decoupled.  That's my sense of it, though I am still trying to qualify my thinking. 

It seems to me, more and more though, an indicator - hPa 925 temps, 2M temps, 500hPa height, or pick your own favorite - has less strongly defined connection to other measurements or changes in the system which follow.

We have multiple chaotic systems interacting, and as such, the reliability of specific correlations are breaking down.  As an illustrative metaphor, consider this:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/45/Double-compound-pendulum.gif

... and an explanation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_pendulum

Key facet:

"a double pendulum is a pendulum with another pendulum attached to its end, and is a simple physical system that exhibits rich dynamic behavior with a strong sensitivity to initial conditions"

Hysteresis and starting conditions apply; what follows is much more difficult to identify consistently.  We are in the dark because we really don't have enough information for short term predictions; its akin to trying to tell what part of a boiling pot is going to bubble next.

The modelers are no doubt suffering serious bouts of heartburn.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1692 on: June 29, 2014, 03:55:47 AM »
Bornfromthevoid-

You seriously haven't told me anything about the effects of a low level air mass above a massive surface inversion created by the phase transfer of the snow/ice to liquid.

If that warmth mixed to the surface well the ice would melt out completely every summer.

I want to see some proof air 1000M above the surface can mix with the cooled surface air created from melting ice. 

If that is the case the ice should melt at outstanding rates anytime there is a high pressure with warm mid level temps but it doesn't.  It really hasn't ever.

The difference in total melt between 2013 and 2012 was roughly 1700km3 of ice.  That is nothing if warm mid level air was making it's way into the melting process at anything barely substantial above slightly cooler mid level air. 

In fact it's more likely the difference between 2013 and 2012 was much lower as 2012 saw a lot more flushing.  The actual direct melting difference was minimal.  Like 2-3CM basin wide. 

That's why I said if it's melting it's bad if not melting it's not bad. 

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas

Sea level pressure is above normal on the monthly average and will only increase as the month ends.

I never claimed anything about mixing, or melting impacts of inversion layers, or that upper level temperatures are the single most important aspect to consider in the melt season, or anything like that, just that (and I hate using bold!) 850hPa temperatures are a better representation of the anomalously warm air masses over the Arctic than surface temperatures, which is why they are so often used in analysis
So if you want to see if there is a warm air mass over the Arctic ocean, looking at the temperature at pressure levels above the surface is more useful. I really don't know if I can explain this in a more simple manner...

Also, if all we needed was high pressure to melt out the ice, we'd see a very strong relationship with the AO, but things aren't that simple. To top of off there's probably as much to consider that we're unaware of, as there is that we are aware of!
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1693 on: June 29, 2014, 04:01:41 AM »

If that warmth mixed to the surface well the ice would melt out completely every summer.


To melt out 2 metres of ice would take enough energy to heat the entire atmosphere above by 16 degrees.  Considering we are probably talking maybe 20-30% of the atmosphere that is above 0, and I've almost never seen a temp 16 above 0 then the entire lot could mix with the surface maybe a dozen or more times over during the summer before melting through the ice.  If there is only a partial mix then you could be mixing every 3-4 days for 90 days and still not melt all the ice.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1694 on: June 29, 2014, 04:14:44 AM »
12Z Euro run looks spurious to me as far as low level temps are concerned. Could be an initialization error or processing error. I'd be very wary about using it. It doesn't look anything like the previous run even 24-48 hours out as far as low-level temps are concerned.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1695 on: June 29, 2014, 04:28:40 AM »

If that warmth mixed to the surface well the ice would melt out completely every summer.


To melt out 2 metres of ice would take enough energy to heat the entire atmosphere above by 16 degrees.  Considering we are probably talking maybe 20-30% of the atmosphere that is above 0, and I've almost never seen a temp 16 above 0 then the entire lot could mix with the surface maybe a dozen or more times over during the summer before melting through the ice.  If there is only a partial mix then you could be mixing every 3-4 days for 90 days and still not melt all the ice.

I don't think Friv is suggesting all of the heat would come from the mixing.  It's all about the sum of contributions. 

(warning - approximations follow - I'm looking at scale, not detail  8) )
For example, at solstice areas above 80N get about 50MJoules/day/Meter squared of sunlight.  Fully captured, that would melt out about 15CM of ice per day.   So, even with tapering off at the edges of the season, annual insolation easily provides the potential to melt 10 times the ice currently present in the arctic, save icecaps.  It doesn't of course, because of albedo, re-radiation and thermal uptake by other parts of the system.

Heat imported into the region from elsewhere via atmosphere and current also contribute, but comparatively, are a very small fraction of what actually does the heavy lifting during the melt season.  That said, the system itself is on a knife-edge balance, as the buffering comprised by greater ice volume in the past is missing.  For this reason, contribution from mixing of warm air from 925hPa would be a dangerous addition of energy, and what Friv is questioning, as we don't necessarily see it.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1696 on: June 29, 2014, 05:05:43 AM »
12Z Euro run looks spurious to me as far as low level temps are concerned. Could be an initialization error or processing error. I'd be very wary about using it. It doesn't look anything like the previous run even 24-48 hours out as far as low-level temps are concerned.

The Euro ensemble mean is in strong agreement so the error would have to be at a starting point I'd think.



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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1697 on: June 29, 2014, 05:33:38 AM »
Jaxa dropped around -150k.

Roughly 80K above 2012 now.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

LRC1962

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1698 on: June 29, 2014, 07:04:52 AM »
Unfortunately in 2012 in the next 7 days it dropped 720k and this yr has had a hard time putting those #s together in a week. If ice is as thin as believed by many of us it could happen.
Edit: PS party pooper?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1699 on: June 29, 2014, 07:17:37 AM »

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow