I don't think the Earth is warm enough to melt out the arctic yet and it may be decades before it happens.
We're seeing a strong trend here. What might stop it and stretch the melt-out decades into the future? I'm watching a car plunge over a cliff and Superman isn't in sight....
The arctic has stopped warming at least since peaking in 2011 overall. Other contributing factors to the huge drop off post 1996 could be in part from the AMO. I am not a believer in the AMO as anything substantial but it's a potential impactful thing if it is real since it correlates big time with post 1996 land, sea, snow loss over the NH in Spring and Summer.
But again for me it's mostly about the amount of energy it takes to melt that thicker ice reserve. How do we get to the point where that ice is exposed to that kind of energy.
We haven't even melted out the Canadian Archipelago yet which is directly connected to land masses that bring way more heat to that region then can be generated in the Southern arctic basin.
We have never had a season where all the FYI ice melts out. Not even 2012. I just think we are a long way off because we need the arctic basin to open up weeks earlier then it has so far.
If that last 2-3 mil km2 of area wasn't the thickest oldest ice that is covered in a thick layer of snow then no biggie. But the arctic hasn't shown the kind of warming required to accomplish this. Nor has the amount of snow in Spring loss required to warm the cryosphere before we blow thru t much insolation.
I used to think we have a shot at an ice free arctic by 2020(1 mil km2) or less. But moved it back to 2021-2025.
Here is one of my reasons. buoy 2014D. While there has been plenty of time above 0C + sunshine at some points this Summer almost zero melt there at all. There is a large area of ice like that ice as thick or thicker that is going to be extremely hard to displace/melt IMHO without a lot more energy entering the system.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2014D.htmThere is "apparently" a large area of thick ice out there.
But this area of ice "apparently" almost melted out completely in 2011 and 2012 then recovered back to the current 2014 levels?
Not sure what to believe when it comes to this stuff. Was ice bridge around to confirm that old ice really vanished in 2011 to only be less effected in 2012 and make a complete recovery in one year? like wtf?