A detail on today’s MODIS: Vlikitsky Strait is heading for break-up
The ‘weak stretch’ isn’t open yet. Off-shore winds on the Western side of a high pressure cell clear the fog/low clouds up to some 11 km into the 50 km wide Strait. The ice appears dark, as it is melting. To the West, a rift of open water is progressing along the coast. A big chunk of ice is ready to break off. To the East, the chipping of pieces of the fast-ice is also advancing.
On the debate, today, about the progress of the melt and the state of the CAB, here’s my point of view.
Even with the rapid extent fall during the last ten days, it is still unclear whether this year would be heading for a concurrent minimum. The Arctic seas outside the Basin proper are in flash melt mode. But they usually go in this period.
The main Basin difference this year is a lot of open water in Amundsen Gulf (CAA) and Beaufort Sea on the American side and in the Laptev Sea on the Eurasian side. Without the Kara-/Barentsz Sea ice surplus, the Basin would be below the ’12 extent for the day.
But, blurred by lots, lots of fog/low clouds, the hard to fathom state of the
CAB ice does suggest a much slower melt progress. On the one hand, there’s evidence for a lot of snowcover still waiting for melt (it does seem to pick up in the sunnier parts today tile r05 c03/4). On the other hand, the fragmentation outside the safe ‘mesh-pack’, so ominous last year, isn’t expanding yet.
For sure, there’s no structure in the pattern. Millions of km2’s are tight packed individual floes. But that bad quality state isn’t decisive without the right circumstances.
As long as the weather remains quiet (opposite from last year when persistent Low's dispersed the floes), the only way to degrade this is through sunshine and high temps. When the fog holds on, the melt over the
CAB will remain too weak to really make this season a contender.
One teleconnective issue is PDO/ENSO. A full blown Nino would have some protective effects for the ice initially. By promoting cloudiness. The PDO alone could hold the Bering Sea and Alaska on the warm side. That warmth, extending into the Beaufort Sea, could be a feature this year. But at some distance, the CAB could escape anomalous warming.
So far, teleconnections from the Atlantic side have less impact than during former melt seasons. It takes a large weather shift for the SST´s in the Barentsz Sea to get to melt mode.
FTTB, I stick to my SIA/SIE choices.