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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1750 on: June 30, 2014, 11:46:54 AM »
NM your talking about Jaxa showing a big area of the super thin left overs vanishing.

That is almost certainly from warm rain.  And according to wipneus Jaxa only had a -15K drop in the Hudson yesterday.

Maybe that is a day behind.

His home brew which uses AMSR2 but channel 89z for temp brightness and not the lower channels like IJIS uses shows a large decline of -125K which isn't that much and most certainly not anywhere near enough to make up a 1.7 million km2 difference between the products.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1751 on: June 30, 2014, 01:31:42 PM »
The Lake of the Lapatevov is smoking the ice to it's West.

Between DMI and EC the ssts are running roughly 1-3C in that batch of water. Remember these are taken at nighttime for quality control.  So the extra day time heating that is absorbed and transferred to the nearby ice might be only a small bump but it's just an FYI.

What makes this worse attm is the winds are unfavorable and they are pretty stout over that body of water.  Which is shallow so I would assume it makes it easier for waves which will be crashing into the ice around this body of water.  Especially on the West side.

The combo of the warm water, waves, and mostly sunny skies regionally is probably smoking that ice that continues to be shoved towards the Atlantic side.

It's hard to believe there used to be full ice coverage in the Laptev not to long ago.  Talk about just another dynamic of many to screw the ice.






I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
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crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1752 on: June 30, 2014, 01:34:46 PM »
But again for me it's mostly about the amount of energy it takes to melt that thicker ice reserve.  How do we get to the point where that ice is exposed to that kind of energy.

We haven't even melted out the Canadian Archipelago yet which is directly connected to land masses that bring way more heat to that region then can be generated in the Southern arctic basin.

We have never had a season where all the FYI ice melts out.  Not even 2012.  I just think we are a long way off because we need the arctic basin to open up weeks earlier then it has so far. 

FYI never all melts out. True, however usually we melt more MYI than the amount of FYI left because volume keeps declining. Consider what happens if all the ice encountered to melt was FYI.

The volume melted is on an upward trend and if it is all FYI of thickness less than about 1.7m then I think it almost certainly will all melt.

Regarding that thicker ice reserve:
We have seen mobility increase as there is less ice coverage. If more MYI gets pushed into Beaufort or out of Fram where it melts out as there gets to be less ice MYI: the width of the line of MYI against Greenland and CAA gets thinner and the FYI covers more area. We increasingly move towards the above situation.


I am expecting the rate of decline in maximum ice to slow down as increasing areas are covered in just FYI but don't expect it to stop. If it does stop then that would be sufficient reason for the volume melted to stop increasing.

So the maximum volume declines and the volume melted continues to rise but at slowing rates.

We may get down to area of 1m Km^2 in just a few years but I think it will take some time to increase the frequency of replacement of ice off Greenland and CAA so that it comes down to just a couple of meters thick.

Even so, area getting down to just 1m Km^2 is a completely different Arctic than it has been and that can happen quickly.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1753 on: June 30, 2014, 01:41:16 PM »
The modeled backing off from cooling the arctic off continues.



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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1754 on: June 30, 2014, 04:40:20 PM »

Aside from it's job holding back the Greenland glaciers, doesn't the ice in the strait hold back a fair bit of the thickest, oldest MYI in the CAB?

I used to think that too that sea ice holds back glaciers like Petermann, but then realized the glacier is several hundreds of metres thick, whereas the sea ice is at most 5 metres thick.
True, now that it's just sea ice. But in a well-frozen arctic, that thick glacial ice would extend much further down the fjords, buttressing the glaciers and choking the strait with thick glacial ice. Now, as the outlets have melted, the thick ice is more easily flushed out, the glaciers calve off and float away, their grounding lines recede, and the buttressing gets weaker and weaker.

The melting process works from the other direction, too: as the surface of the ice sheet and glaciers melt, the meltwater runs through fissures in the ice to the rock interface, lubricating and speeding the flow. So not only is there less friction holding the glaciers back, the glacier is pushing harder to get out.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1755 on: June 30, 2014, 05:40:32 PM »
Todays number from JAXA was 9,185 Mn km2. With the final value from today left to come in from JAXA I must wonder: have there been a drop of at least 186K km2 this time at year e.g June? Because that is what we need today if we are going to get below the mark of 9Mn km2 per June 30 which only once, in 2010, have been achieved after June 30.

And how much sea ice remains in Hudson Bay now?

When the *&¤%/&"%)("! is that ice in ESS going to melt away?! Must be the less saltier water there which makes it so resistant against melting...

//LMV

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1756 on: June 30, 2014, 06:33:12 PM »
Todays number from JAXA was 9,185 Mn km2. With the final value from today left to come in from JAXA I must wonder: have there been a drop of at least 186K km2 this time at year e.g June? Because that is what we need today if we are going to get below the mark of 9Mn km2 per June 30 which only once, in 2010, have been achieved after June 30.

And how much sea ice remains in Hudson Bay now?

When the *&¤%/&"%)("! is that ice in ESS going to melt away?! Must be the less saltier water there which makes it so resistant against melting...

//LMV

No Sir.  It makes it easier to melt but it also allows it to grow thicker.  ESS FYI is typically 2.25-2.5M thick.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1757 on: June 30, 2014, 06:35:30 PM »
The Hudson drop was likely from warm rain water on the ice so it will up tick so there won't be a large drop today.  It may even be a positive pending other regions. 


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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1758 on: June 30, 2014, 07:18:44 PM »
Based on the daily NSIDC data, we've just had a mega melt week, with a loss of 1.06 million km2 in the last 7 days (-554k in the last 2), larger than any 7 day loss during 2012 and the 3rd largest for any year on record.
Given the daily ups and downs from sensor misreadings, melt ponds and what not (looking at you, Hudson Bay!), I think watching the 7 day loss using the 5 day running mean will give a better idea of how significant this melt period might be. Currently, it's at -832k in the last 7 days, but that should continue to grow over the coming days.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1759 on: June 30, 2014, 07:37:40 PM »
Todays number from JAXA was 9,185 Mn km2. With the final value from today left to come in from JAXA I must wonder: have there been a drop of at least 186K km2 this time at year e.g June? Because that is what we need today if we are going to get below the mark of 9Mn km2 per June 30 which only once, in 2010, have been achieved after June 30.

And how much sea ice remains in Hudson Bay now?

When the *&¤%/&"%)("! is that ice in ESS going to melt away?! Must be the less saltier water there which makes it so resistant against melting...

//LMV

No Sir.  It makes it easier to melt but it also allows it to grow thicker.  ESS FYI is typically 2.25-2.5M thick.

PIOMAS average thickness of sea ice for 2007 to 2014 in April (metres).

2007   2.00
2008   1.93
2009   2.02
2010   2.82
2011   1.75
2012   2.30
2013   2.34
2014   1.95

I have a feeling that it's not unusual for the ESS not to be losing area/extent massively right now, that happens in July IIRC. However there is no publicly available long term region area/extent data set available - it's really looking like I'm going to have to create a regional NSIDC Extent set myself - more work - damn!  >:(

I've attached June 27 for 2012 and 2014 below - we're not much behind 2012 in the Arctic Ocean. And even in that staggering year of loss, which started early, decline in the ESS wasn't well advanced at this stage.

The PIOMAS data will tell us how much behind 2012 we are in terms of volume in the peripheral seas and how much chance there is of rapid area/extent loss this season. However note the thickness in April for 2014 as compared to 2012.

Here's the PIOMAS average thicknesses for April/May/June for 2012 in the ESS.

2.297m
2.281m
1.748m

Now here's April and May for 2014

1.945m
1.761m

See? May 2014 thickness was the same as June in 2012, so even with a total cessation of thinning during this June (2014) it could still only reasonably be expected to be in the same ball park as June 2012, and with the weather since 18 June this year I'm not expecting there to have been no thinning at all over June in the ESS.

helorime

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1760 on: June 30, 2014, 07:44:48 PM »
From the maps it looks like there was a lot less thick ice on June 27 in 2012 than there was on the same date in 2014.

On another note: I was satellite image gazing, as I am somewhat prone to, and noticed many many large "potholes" in the Greenland ice sheet on the western cloud free edge.

Is this normal?  http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r02c02.2014181.terra.500m
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1761 on: June 30, 2014, 08:08:55 PM »
From the maps it looks like there was a lot less thick ice on June 27 in 2012 than there was on the same date in 2014.

Those plots only show concentration, not thickness.

Here's the PIOMAS average thicknesses for April/May/June for 2012 in the ESS. PIOMAS thickness for the ESS in May 2012 was 2.281m, in May of this year it was 1.761m. 0.50m difference.

By early next week we'll probably have the PIOMAS gridded data to work out June 2014's thickness.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1762 on: June 30, 2014, 08:53:57 PM »
Quote
author=helorime link=topic=778.msg30120#msg30120 date=1404150288]
From the maps it looks like there was a lot less thick ice on June 27 in 2012 than there was on the same date in 2014.

On another note: I was satellite image gazing, as I am somewhat prone to, and noticed many many large "potholes" in the Greenland ice sheet on the western cloud free edge.

Is this normal?

That isn't really an indication of ice thickness rather then melt water or melt ponds on the ice sheet which lowers concentration and can do so substantially.

The best example is 2007:



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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1763 on: June 30, 2014, 09:23:26 PM »
From the maps it looks like there was a lot less thick ice on June 27 in 2012 than there was on the same date in 2014.

Those plots only show concentration, not thickness.

Here's the PIOMAS average thicknesses for April/May/June for 2012 in the ESS. PIOMAS thickness for the ESS in May 2012 was 2.281m, in May of this year it was 1.761m. 0.50m difference.

By early next week we'll probably have the PIOMAS gridded data to work out June 2014's thickness.

Yeah even Cryosat shows the thicker ice thru the far Eastern ESS and Chukchi which is bad.  Really bad since that is where the Pacific current flows in under the ice which sits on a shelf mostly 50M or so deep. 

That thickness setup is a recipe for disaster.  Melting 2M or less of ice out pretty much anywhere South of 77N is pretty easy unless the weather is just beyond ideal.  Which is hasn't been nor is it forecast to be.

The buoys in the Beaufort region show bottom melt starting with snow on the top of the ice still.  Looks with the 2D concentration graphics can be extremely deceiving.

Bottom melt on those shelves with the water 20, 40, 60, 80 Meters deep to the bottom of the sea is so much easier with no where for the heat to mix to.  Wave action is worse, so many issues.

But yeah I think the spatial distribution of the ice thickness is set up for a pretty substantial Pacific side melt.



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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1764 on: June 30, 2014, 09:30:34 PM »
Euro continues to trend towards stronger/more anomalous ridging on the NA side.

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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1765 on: June 30, 2014, 09:37:53 PM »
Is this normal?  http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r02c02.2014181.terra.500m
Yes (for an ice sheet that is melting, that is). Those melt ponds can grow very large. It will be interesting to watch them if things warm up in July. (Of course, the bigger they get, them more likely the water is to find a path out -- either across the surface or through fissures in the ice down to the rock below.)

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1766 on: June 30, 2014, 10:05:15 PM »
Let's see how long this HP continues to hold its grip over the Arctic!! When we are summarizing the first half of this year we'll most likely be on third place behind 2010 and 2012. Maybe we can steal the second place from 2012 but 2010 is absolutely out of the bounds. That would require a drop of 300K for today and I'm rather sure that there haven't been such a big drop for one single day, or?

Anyway, Friv, do you you have a similar pic for April or May? :)

Btw, Hudson Bay will be gone in about 48 hours as a really powerful cyclone at 980hPa seems to enter the Bay and blow up what's left of the ice.. If the cyclone takes a more northerly path it should do some real big damage to the ice in the northern part of Hudson close to Baffin Island... If anything is left from the ice at wednesday it will surely be nothing left by thursday...

//LMV

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1767 on: June 30, 2014, 10:26:45 PM »
LMV,

I could be wrong but I don't think Cryosat works during the melt season - melt ponds would masquerade as ice.

Actually 2010 is easily within reach, it slowed down in late July/August - due to an export of ice into Beaufort & Chukchi - similar to what has happened this year. I had suggested that this might have a similar effect this year but after a challenge by Nightvid reconsidered. I suspect that the exported ice isn't as thick and dense as in 2010. It remains one to watch.

Attached is the plot for the most recent NSIDC data showing the difference between 2014 and 2007 to 2013. Due to the slow down in 2010 it may not be too hard to pass that later this season.

However! Wipneus has found that most of the current high melt is from Hudson/Baffin, as that ice declines to zero the rate of loss (100k per day from 18 to 27 June) may slow. I'm betting it won't because we're now into July when the greatest rate of loss happens, and the peripheral ice of the Arctic basin is thin compared to thickness in 1980 to 1999 - the baseline average I use. So open water formation should be good.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1768 on: June 30, 2014, 10:32:02 PM »
Out of interest what would happen if in two-three weeks time the CAB gets hit by a powerful storm?

Is the ice there thin enough that a storm would break the pack up and scatter it?

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1769 on: June 30, 2014, 10:32:18 PM »
Todays number from JAXA was 9,185 Mn km2. With the final value from today left to come in from JAXA I must wonder: have there been a drop of at least 186K km2 this time at year e.g June?

In the past 11 seasons, there have only been four single-day JAXA drops of 180,000 or greater. One was in August of 2008; the other three were in 2012, with one each in June, July, and August.

Expanding just a bit, over the past 11 seasons, there have been just three June JAXA drops of greater than 150,000 km2, including yesterday's; the other two were in the second week of the month in 2012. In fact, JAXA SIE has only seen 16 >150k drops in the past eleven years, with six of those occurring in 2012 (including three in a four-day span at the beginning of August).


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1770 on: June 30, 2014, 10:35:30 PM »
Forgot to add.

I was playing around with MASIE data earlier. For the period 18 June to 29 June 2014 here are the percentage contributions to overall loss during that period from three areas.

Arctic Ocean - 35.42%
Hudson - 24.63%
G'Land & Baffin - 35.75%
The residual from other areas is 4.2%, making a total of the 1.28 million kmsq loss in MASIE over that period. Note that NSIDC Extent declined 1.66 million kmsq from 18 June to 29 June - the two indices are not identical.

As Wipneus says, declines in the American southern regions are strong. But I suspect this is not unusual for late June. However at about 1/3, declines from the Arctic Ocean are not to be dismissed, and I think the Arctic Ocean is just getting started.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1771 on: June 30, 2014, 11:01:19 PM »
Let's see how long this HP continues to hold its grip over the Arctic!!
Indeed, last year we had a couple of persistent cyclones, but this is looking more and more like a persistent anti-cyclone. My memory isn't all that great, but I can't remember seeing this in the past 4 years.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1772 on: July 01, 2014, 12:15:08 AM »
It was a little hard to see a lot of detail in the Big Crack today due to some thin cloud cover, but it appears that the system of cracks has made its way about half way across the top of Greenland. Another day of these conditions (and the drift forecast suggests we'll have another day of it, at least) and the crack will span all the way from the Beaufort to the Greenland Sea. Impressive.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1773 on: July 01, 2014, 01:42:07 AM »
It was a little hard to see a lot of detail in the Big Crack today due to some thin cloud cover, but it appears that the system of cracks has made its way about half way across the top of Greenland. Another day of these conditions (and the drift forecast suggests we'll have another day of it, at least) and the crack will span all the way from the Beaufort to the Greenland Sea. Impressive.
Then what?!
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1774 on: July 01, 2014, 03:43:28 AM »
It was a little hard to see a lot of detail in the Big Crack today due to some thin cloud cover, but it appears that the system of cracks has made its way about half way across the top of Greenland. Another day of these conditions (and the drift forecast suggests we'll have another day of it, at least) and the crack will span all the way from the Beaufort to the Greenland Sea. Impressive.
Then what?!
Less anything direct than what is implied; the structural integrity of the CAB is threatened.

If we have a cyclone, or even just high wind, it suggests a much grater probability of the ice being disrupted.  If disrupted, it is more vulnerable to weather, and there is higher probability of heat arriving from warm currents at depth.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1775 on: July 01, 2014, 04:51:33 AM »
June is over.  And no June cliff to speak of.  This could mean a serious slow down later in the season if lack of albedo feedback via melt ponds has the impact expected by many.

Why no June cliff?  The start was cold but the last couple weeks have been much warmer and plenty of high pressure for sunshine.  And open water has increased at a rapid rate in the Laptev and to a lesser extent Beaufort and Chukchi as well.  Perhaps the weather has been warm around the edges but cold in the middle.  Perhaps lots of snow in winter is slowing down melt pond formation - and also making for thinner ice due to snow insulation.  Perhaps the sensors are fooled by fog this year.  Or maybe its not warm outside and cold inside, but cold on top and warm underneath.  The ARC SST chart hints at unusually warm water in the Pacific side of the Arctic basin.  If the melt is being driven strongly from underneath we might see a strong melt late in the season after the surface melt finishes.

And July has begun.  Looking at IJIS extent this is the month where the contenders are separated from the pretenders.  Melt in the peripheral regions is complete, and it becomes all about the central regions.  I also suspect that July is the month with the highest input of solar radiation in the Arctic Ocean.  More sunlight comes in during June, but with solistice on the 21st it would not be by a large amount, and I guess the increased open water and surface melt in July would more than make up for this.  Unless cloudier conditions in July block the sun out, which we certainly seem to have seen in some years.

During previous July's 2006, 2010 and 2011 all faded away from commanding positions at the head of the pack.  I sometimes wander how much of the 2010/2011 slow down was due to the bad weather at that time, and how much was due to stronger conditions of the central pack and an end to melt in the peripheral regions.    July saw 2007 made its big move leaving pre-2009 years in the dust and overtaking 2010 and 2011.

However sometimes there are significant moves in August as well with 2013 falling from near the front to well behind, 2008 making a surge from well back to be just pipped at the post by 2007, and 2012 breaking away from a neck and neck race with 2007 to set a significant record. 
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1776 on: July 01, 2014, 05:09:31 AM »
2007 was super compacted.

2010-2013 have all been worse.

If volume matters the most that's how I see it.

This year volume will be at least roughly tied with 2010.

Weather or not that shows up in low extent remains to be seen
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1777 on: July 01, 2014, 05:14:55 AM »
June is over.  And no June cliff to speak of. 

I'd beg to differ with you...

This is how an extent cliff looks like. Curiously an even bigger until so far cliff happened in the Hudson in 2012 on the same day.

(legend black: UH AMSR2 2014, green: UH AMSR2 2013, orange: UH SSMIS 2012, purple: Jaxa L3 AMSR2 2014)

And...
« Last Edit: July 01, 2014, 05:20:00 AM by jdallen »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1778 on: July 01, 2014, 05:21:18 AM »
Even with a substantial uptick in the Hudson.  Jaxa still drops almost -130K.

Quote
The latest value: 9,057,557 km2 (June 30, 2014) 




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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1779 on: July 01, 2014, 06:20:12 AM »

This year volume will be at least roughly tied with 2010.


If volume is only as low as 2010 that would be an interesting result.  A quadratic trend up to 2012 suggested minimum volume reaching 0 around 2016 or so.  The uptick in 2013 put volume right in the upper ranges of expected variation around this trend.  If this trend was to continue I'd expect a new volume record this year.  Something more like 2010 would in my mind confirm that 2013 was the start of a slow down in the death spiral to something more like the Gompertz curve and a postponement of ice free Arctic for at a few years or maybe decades.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1780 on: July 01, 2014, 06:27:04 AM »

This year volume will be at least roughly tied with 2010.


If volume is only as low as 2010 that would be an interesting result.  A quadratic trend up to 2012 suggested minimum volume reaching 0 around 2016 or so.  The uptick in 2013 put volume right in the upper ranges of expected variation around this trend.  If this trend was to continue I'd expect a new volume record this year.  Something more like 2010 would in my mind confirm that 2013 was the start of a slow down in the death spiral to something more like the Gompertz curve and a postponement of ice free Arctic for at a few years or maybe decades.

Without an all out assault on the Southern Basin there is no way volume gets down below 2011 and into 2012 range even if Extent is as low or lower than 2011.

The weather is unfavorable there for the foreseeable future but that will have to go on thru August for any substantial melting in that thicker ice region.

I think an ice free arctic will be between 2021-2025 at the earliest without a big jump in general warmth and Spring snow cover melting out even earlier by at least 10 days versus whatever the NA side record is now if not more.  Which will require a jump in warmth in the 50-90N range we have not seen since 2011.

It will probably need to be at least 1-2C above the 2011 record.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1781 on: July 01, 2014, 07:41:39 AM »
June is over.  And no June cliff to speak of. 

I'd beg to differ with you...


Definitions. That's the problem. Over at Neven's blog Wayne said every year has a cliff, not so in my opinion.

In terms of CT Area residuals there has been no cliff this year.



We're still awaiting recent CT Area data, there's a delay there again! However 2014 clearly shows no massive drop like 2007 or the post 2010 years, and as the baseline seasonal cycle shows strong losses in late June through July it gets harder for 2014 to make a cliff as judged against typical losses for late June.

That is the June cliff, it is a new feature of the seasonal cycle - I can post past periods of anomalies.

What we have in NSIDC extent (attached) is large drop typical of recent years, but taking the whole summer, recent years show more of a summer slide with the June drop being more the start of that downwards slide rather than a 'June Cliff'.

So Michael is correct, there has been no June cliff in 2014 because this is a feature of CT Area. What we see is the start of a 'summer slide' in NSIDC Extent, as in 2007 and 2013, 2014 shows a large drop. But if people start calling every large drop a 'cliff' then the new behaviour of CT Area is devalued and confusion is the result.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1782 on: July 01, 2014, 08:19:28 AM »
Chris friv and the rest maybe need to explain then where you are talking from. There are 3 values we look at, area, extent and volume. IMO they each have a place in trying to judge what is happening. They each have strengths and each have weaknesses. Also everyone has their own bias as to what they like looking at. But in the end of the melt you really do need all 3 values because not only do they tell you a better story as to what actually did occur during the summer, but they can give you a pretty good idea of what may happen during the winter.
IMO also if we get a nasty cyclone rolling over the top of Greenland end of July, beginning of Aug all that nice thick ice above Greenland could get flushed out in a hurry, because IMO that nice thick ice, ice not very good ice at all. Good solid thick ice should have uniformity of structure to make the nice giant ice floes. Combining all the images I can find, I am very suspicious that if one were to really good there and look at it, it would be very fragmented  and would not have good strength structurally throughout the depth of the ice. All this means. You get a good strong wind blowing on it, and it will easily brake apart and travel very fast in whichever direction the wind is going.
Even in the past, thick ice above Greenland did not stick around long unless weather pushed it back toward Alaska or did not blow at all.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1783 on: July 01, 2014, 09:38:00 AM »
Definitions. That's the problem. Over at Neven's blog Wayne said every year has a cliff, not so in my opinion.

In terms of CT Area residuals there has been no cliff this year. ... That is the June cliff, it is a new feature of the seasonal cycle - I can post past periods of anomalies.

What we have in NSIDC extent (attached) is large drop typical of recent years, but taking the whole summer, recent years show more of a summer slide with the June drop being more the start of that downwards slide rather than a 'June Cliff'.

So Michael is correct, there has been no June cliff in 2014 because this is a feature of CT Area. What we see is the start of a 'summer slide' in NSIDC Extent, as in 2007 and 2013, 2014 shows a large drop. But if people start calling every large drop a 'cliff' then the new behaviour of CT Area is devalued and confusion is the result.
Only CT area matters? A large drop is not a cliff? You are right about one thing: definitions are important to communication. IMHO, "cliff" is exactly the right word to use:

cliff /klif/
noun
1. a steep rock face, especially at the edge of the sea
2. a critical point or situation beyond which something bad or undesirable may occur

The risk of misunderstanding is greatest if you constantly redefine your expectations in terms of the worst years. That is the type of thinking behind the "2013 recovery" meme.

The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1784 on: July 01, 2014, 09:39:12 AM »
This years anti-cyclone is practically a mirror image of last years cyclone, or was on the 26th. according to http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e
edit Should have said 'the winds generated by' first.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2014, 09:52:19 AM by johnm33 »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1785 on: July 01, 2014, 09:53:42 AM »
The point is that previous years with massive melts have had steep area drops preceding steep extent drops, i.e. indicative of melt ponding on the ice and/or divergence of low concentration ice prior to melt-out.  We can tell it's predominantly melt ponding because it shows up particularly on CT area (which uses an algorithm susceptible to melt pond contamination) and less so on other measures, even other area measures.

This year is something very different: steep extent losses without preceding steep area losses.  For whatever reason there seems to be much less melt ponding and divergence in the high Arctic. This is also clear from MODIS pictures when the clouds let us see through.  The hypothesis is that this will lead to similar behaviour this year as last - steep melting through June and July but that then levels off sharply towards the end of the season because there just wasn't enough pre-conditioning to allow the central ice to start melting out in August.

I'm more or less convinced by this argument, but this year will be a good test of it.

As to what to call a "cliff" - well perhaps the better measure to use is CAPIE (area / extent) since that is what we're really talking about here: whether area drops are leading extent drops or not.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1786 on: July 01, 2014, 10:13:31 AM »
Only CT area matters? A large drop is not a cliff? You are right about one thing: definitions are important to communication.

If I remember correctly, it was Chris Reynolds who defined the term 'June Cliff' as related to CT data. There may be other cliffs in other data sets, but the 'June Cliff' refers to CT area.

The point is that previous years with massive melts have had steep area drops preceding steep extent drops, i.e. indicative of melt ponding on the ice and/or divergence of low concentration ice prior to melt-out.  We can tell it's predominantly melt ponding because it shows up particularly on CT area (which uses an algorithm susceptible to melt pond contamination) and less so on other measures, even other area measures.

This year is something very different: steep extent losses without preceding steep area losses.  For whatever reason there seems to be much less melt ponding and divergence in the high Arctic. This is also clear from MODIS pictures when the clouds let us see through.  The hypothesis is that this will lead to similar behaviour this year as last - steep melting through June and July but that then levels off sharply towards the end of the season because there just wasn't enough pre-conditioning to allow the central ice to start melting out in August.

I'm more or less convinced by this argument, but this year will be a good test of it.

As to what to call a "cliff" - well perhaps the better measure to use is CAPIE (area / extent) since that is what we're really talking about here: whether area drops are leading extent drops or not.
Well put, Peter. Let's see if we have something to hang onto when it comes to understanding how things work in the Arctic. Like I said in the latest ASI update:

Quote
More and more the comparison with 2013 is falling apart, despite similar starts. In fact, last year's recovery of multi-year ice (not a real recovery, only compared to record crashing 2012) is in real danger of getting wiped out, keeping the Arctic death spiral poised for more steps towards ice-free conditions.

Nevertheless, a couple of factors are keeping me from seeing 2014 as a true title contender. It's a bit like taking a chicken out of the oven, to find out it was still frozen when you put it in: hot on the outside, cold on the inside. Melt at the peripheries is seriously underway now, and there's even some extra melt potential left that hasn't come to expression yet on the graphs. But the Central Arctic Basin is looking strong compared to previous years, we don't see as many holes as in 2010 or 2013, or as many melt ponds as in 2007 or 2012.

In the past it would surely be too late to make up for that, but the Arctic has changed so much that no one can tell with certainty what happens next. Either way, a true onslaught will require periods of even higher pressure for more insolation and higher SSTs on the Atlantic side, with low pressure elsewhere to get those winds blowing warm air to and fro, tearing the ice apart.

The reverse is also true: If this doesn't come about, things could stall again big time.

In the meantime ECMWF has the high dissipating to reform again after a day or two (but that's towards the end of the forecast). Usually, there's a lagged response in SIE/SIA decrease, so maybe a couple of more century break days, and then a lull, and then...

It's going to be interesting to see what happens when Hudson, Baffin and Kara have melted out completely. Then there's the Laptev hole, with little needed for the Northern Sea Route to open completely yet again, and might the NWP open after all? As usual, lots of things to watch.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1787 on: July 01, 2014, 11:26:39 AM »
The point is that previous years with massive melts have had steep area drops preceding steep extent drops, i.e. indicative of melt ponding on the ice and/or divergence of low concentration ice prior to melt-out.  We can tell it's predominantly melt ponding because it shows up particularly on CT area (which uses an algorithm susceptible to melt pond contamination) and less so on other measures, even other area measures.

This year is something very different: steep extent losses without preceding steep area losses.  For whatever reason there seems to be much less melt ponding and divergence in the high Arctic. This is also clear from MODIS pictures when the clouds let us see through.  The hypothesis is that this will lead to similar behaviour this year as last - steep melting through June and July but that then levels off sharply towards the end of the season because there just wasn't enough pre-conditioning to allow the central ice to start melting out in August.

I'm more or less convinced by this argument, but this year will be a good test of it.

As to what to call a "cliff" - well perhaps the better measure to use is CAPIE (area / extent) since that is what we're really talking about here: whether area drops are leading extent drops or not.


That is simply not true.  2013 was 1 million behind 2010 in area and caught 2010 in 20 days.

2013 caught 2010 in area and almost caught the other low years in extent in mid to late July and preconditioning had nothing to do with it.

Weather for 2013 was the 2nd best for ice preservation in the last 30 years.

Looks like 2010 was preconditioned beyond reason versus 2013. Hence the 1 million it had on 2013 in area that it lost in 20 days.

What a lot of good melt ponds North of GIS mean for the final outcome.






With only a marginal pattern in July 2013 caught and fell below 2010 thanks to 2010 having good ice preservation weather.

In spite of all that Preconditioning it didn't do jack to help 2010 keep falling.







Then 2010 switches back to a massive dipole anomaly and boom.  2013 after about 2 weeks of "bad" weather has amazing weather in August and September for the ice and that is our end result.

Trying to sell people that June preconditioning is why 2013 ended up where it did is wrong.






So you are saying that preconditioning is why 2013 finished only 300K above 2010 in extent and 500K in area?

So if the weather was switched in August and September the outcome would of been roughly the same?








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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1788 on: July 01, 2014, 11:29:43 AM »
Melt ponds aside, I think 2013 vs 2014 will be a poster boy for the melt-from-the-edges vs melt-in-situ comparison.  2013 started the year with massive weakness and divergence right across the heart of the central Basin - loads of open leads soaking up sunshine - yet it wasn't enough for the ice to melt out in place.  This time round we have the exact opposite - high concentration and fairly unbroken ice across the centre, but rapid melt advance from the edge, particularly in Laptev and Chukchi, but also now in the Beaufort.  Let's see which is more effective at preconditioning the pack for a long and late season.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1789 on: July 01, 2014, 11:44:57 AM »
Chris friv and the rest maybe need to explain then where you are talking from. There are 3 values we look at, area, extent and volume. IMO they each have a place in trying to judge what is happening. They each have strengths and each have weaknesses. Also everyone has their own bias as to what they like looking at. But in the end of the melt you really do need all 3 values because not only do they tell you a better story as to what actually did occur during the summer, but they can give you a pretty good idea of what may happen during the winter.
IMO also if we get a nasty cyclone rolling over the top of Greenland end of July, beginning of Aug all that nice thick ice above Greenland could get flushed out in a hurry, because IMO that nice thick ice, ice not very good ice at all. Good solid thick ice should have uniformity of structure to make the nice giant ice floes. Combining all the images I can find, I am very suspicious that if one were to really good there and look at it, it would be very fragmented  and would not have good strength structurally throughout the depth of the ice. All this means. You get a good strong wind blowing on it, and it will easily brake apart and travel very fast in whichever direction the wind is going.
Even in the past, thick ice above Greenland did not stick around long unless weather pushed it back toward Alaska or did not blow at all.


It's all about weather and thickness.

Ice thickness is terrible everywhere almost now.

After 19 months of JJA  -NAO from Aug of 06 to Aug of 2012.  June, July, and August of 2013 all had a +NAO.

This June will finish with a -NAO.

In terms of ice thickness piomas paints a much worse picture than Cryosat.  But I can't find the link to Chris Reynolds Piomas thickness charts.





There is a lake at 85N where there is apparently 100 percent concentration.  Talk about a joke.  Area is a joke.



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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1790 on: July 01, 2014, 12:11:05 PM »

http://www.weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=he
Low pressure in the gulf of Alaska is pumping up a rather substantial PNA ridge.  Eventually reaching the Beaufort sea as well as the western Canadian archipelago.

 GEFS  (gfs ensembles) PNA forecast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

GEFS 850mb temperature anomalies, hour 96

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/t850_anom_f096_nh.html
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1792 on: July 01, 2014, 12:17:47 PM »
Quote
Low pressure in the gulf of Alaska is pumping up a rather substantial PNA ridge.  Eventually reaching the Beaufort sea as well as the western Canadian archipelago.

Yeah, the models keep trending worse.

The Euro ensemble mean is nasty as well.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1793 on: July 01, 2014, 12:52:45 PM »
Melt ponds aside, I think 2013 vs 2014 will be a poster boy for the melt-from-the-edges vs melt-in-situ comparison.  2013 started the year with massive weakness and divergence right across the heart of the central Basin - loads of open leads soaking up sunshine - yet it wasn't enough for the ice to melt out in place.  This time round we have the exact opposite - high concentration and fairly unbroken ice across the centre, but rapid melt advance from the edge, particularly in Laptev and Chukchi, but also now in the Beaufort.  Let's see which is more effective at preconditioning the pack for a long and late season.

I really liked this when I first read it, but you know what. as soon as you think you have some idea of how the damn stuff melts (or doesn't), the next year it just goes and does something else instead  ::) at least if this year doesn't hit the buffers over the next few weeks we'll have to revise the 'early melt ponds are critical' theory

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1794 on: July 01, 2014, 01:32:59 PM »
A detail on today’s MODIS: Vlikitsky Strait is heading for break-up



The ‘weak stretch’ isn’t open yet. Off-shore winds on the Western side of a high pressure cell clear the fog/low clouds up to some 11 km into the 50 km wide Strait. The ice appears dark, as it is melting. To the West, a rift of open water is progressing along the coast. A big chunk of ice is ready to break off. To the East, the chipping of pieces of the fast-ice is also advancing.

On the debate, today, about the progress of the melt and the state of the CAB, here’s my point of view.

Even with the rapid extent fall during the last ten days, it is still unclear whether this year would be heading for a concurrent minimum. The Arctic seas outside the Basin proper are in flash melt mode. But they usually go in this period.

The main Basin difference this year is a lot of open water in Amundsen Gulf (CAA) and Beaufort Sea on the American side and in the Laptev Sea on the Eurasian side. Without the Kara-/Barentsz Sea ice surplus, the Basin would be below the ’12 extent for the day.

But, blurred by lots, lots of fog/low clouds, the hard to fathom state of the CAB ice does suggest a much slower melt progress. On the one hand, there’s evidence for a lot of snowcover still waiting for melt (it does seem to pick up in the sunnier parts today tile r05 c03/4). On the other hand, the fragmentation outside the safe ‘mesh-pack’, so ominous last year, isn’t expanding yet.
For sure, there’s no structure in the pattern. Millions of km2’s are tight packed individual floes. But that bad quality state isn’t decisive without the right circumstances.

As long as the weather remains quiet (opposite from last year when persistent Low's dispersed the floes), the only way to degrade this is through sunshine and high temps. When the fog holds on, the melt over the CAB will remain too weak to really make this season a contender.

One teleconnective issue is PDO/ENSO. A full blown Nino would have some protective effects for the ice initially. By promoting cloudiness. The PDO alone could hold the Bering Sea and Alaska on the warm side. That warmth,  extending into the Beaufort Sea, could be a feature this year. But at some distance, the CAB could escape anomalous warming.

So far, teleconnections from the Atlantic side have less impact than during former melt seasons. It takes a large weather shift for the SST´s in the Barentsz Sea to get to melt mode.

FTTB, I stick to my SIA/SIE choices.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1795 on: July 01, 2014, 01:54:56 PM »
Quote
Low pressure in the gulf of Alaska is pumping up a rather substantial PNA ridge.  Eventually reaching the Beaufort sea as well as the western Canadian archipelago.

Yeah, the models keep trending worse.

The Euro ensemble mean is nasty as well.



A bit far out for reliability but that dipole is awfully ominous looking for the ice...

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1796 on: July 01, 2014, 01:59:57 PM »
O-Buoy #10 is showing melt ponds forming now...

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1797 on: July 01, 2014, 02:06:36 PM »
Buoy2013F at 77N has run out of snow.

http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2013F.htm

I know it says there is snow left.  But if you take out the drift or sensor slip.

It would be done.

More importantly the web cam image shows the ice surface exposed around remaining small bumps of wet snow. 

Now only 1.63 meters to go????

I doubt there is an analog in the last 50 years from today to Sept 10th that would support not melting out 1.63M of ice at 77N in the Canadian Basin. 

And yet no melt ponds there yet!!!

I bet all the snow melted water did wonders to To the ice structure as it drained. 


In the big Canadian basin melt years we saw 3-4M ice vanish.

Now almost all of the ice in the NW 2/3rds of the Canadian basin is  2M or less.

If that ice survives without a miracle weather gift from god I will video myself eating crow and post it here.

All that thicker old ice that was sent West leading up to the summer of 2013 didn't melt out but was beaten down losing 1-2M of thickness.

Buoys show it regained 50CM of IV that thickness at best.

Do I expect 2012? No.  You can see on cryosat where the ice gets much thicker that would be fool hearty to think  without a incredible 6 week torch and tons of sun it will melt down to 80N+ but that ice is toast that is 2M or less.

Given the thickest ice is in the Chuchki region of the basin which is the easiest to melt while the Laptev/ESS ice is trash. 

I bet from the Chuchki to ESS to Laptev all the ice South of 80N is toast. 

By the Laptev you can extend that to 83N+
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1798 on: July 01, 2014, 02:07:06 PM »
O-Buoy #10 is showing melt ponds forming now...


 :D ;D
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a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1799 on: July 01, 2014, 02:21:41 PM »