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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1800 on: July 01, 2014, 02:39:18 PM »
06z gfs continues the trend towards....
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1801 on: July 01, 2014, 02:55:06 PM »
There is a weather pattern that keeps being missed IMO FOG.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/rapidly-melting-snow
Now I do understand that this article is talking about spring fog in New England states, but it brings up the question, what kind of fog are we getting up in the arctic? One of the common threads almost daily has been trying to see the ice through the fog. Other years has been cloud. The right kind of fog can melt snow and ice faster then sun. It is also very deceptive. Where sun tends to melt snow and ice top down, the right fog can melt the entire way through leaving it looking like the melt has not happened until you step on it and find you foot has gone all the way through. We could be possibly seeing a case this year where the fog has done as much or more damage then melt ponds do. This should show up by late July early Aug. If fog has been doing the melting this year then indeed you would see that extent would drop first because that would be the thin ice going, but the area would still hold up because the shell that the fog has not melted out would still be there. Once though the melt has gotten to a certain point then the whole thing just vanishes. At this point then the CT will go into free fail.
I repeat, the big question I have been having all melt season has been what kind of fog is in the Arctic this year. Cold fog, no problem, it will insulate the ice melting some but protecting for the most part. Warm fog (I am talking about Arctic versions now) and you can go looking at all your charts and visuals, but the damage will be far greater actually then sun. To me it is acting more and more like warm fog, in that case CT will start dropping like a huge stone by I would say mid July. And it could be a free fall.
Edit: and the early temps could also support that as air temps would be low as the heat energy is moving into melting the ice inside out>
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1802 on: July 01, 2014, 03:08:52 PM »

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1803 on: July 01, 2014, 03:16:17 PM »


How come DMI temps are so markedly different from the NOAA temps?


« Last Edit: July 01, 2014, 04:36:10 PM by Siffy »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1804 on: July 01, 2014, 04:07:08 PM »
DMI is purely satellite scanning.  So it's possible warmer water within the ice pack is obviously not going to be scanned with ice so much larger of the surface area.

EC takes direct measurements from ships, buoys, itps, and such.  We can see areas of -1C to 1C reports within the ice pack itself.  Which makes sense.  If that incorporated into a modeling + sat temps then you would probably get the graphic you posted versus just satellite scanning that will only pick up the ice surface.


https://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/351_100.gif
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1805 on: July 01, 2014, 05:21:29 PM »
Am I losing it or did we have a similar Pollyanna in the Beaufort in 2013?  I think it was much later in July but I thought it was in about the same spot as that one?


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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1806 on: July 01, 2014, 05:29:20 PM »
Am I losing it or did we have a similar Pollyanna in the Beaufort in 2013?  I think it was much later in July but I thought it was in about the same spot as that one?

Try concentration comparison

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0719

On 19th July 13, it was still smaller than this year's 30 June

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1807 on: July 01, 2014, 05:53:15 PM »
I've a question considering the melt ponds:

Given last years very cool summer in the Arctic high latitudes (e.g 80-90N), are we sure that ALL snow on the ice melted out in 2013? I saw on the Canadian weather site that the current snow cover in the CAB should be 1 m.. http://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/352_100.gif

Is it plausible that all snow in the high latitudes was transformed to melt ponds last summer? If not, that could be the solution to why we haven't seen any big drops in SIA before SIE..

Realistic or should this be in the note of "stupid questions"?

//LMV

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1808 on: July 01, 2014, 05:58:43 PM »
Here is the 06z GFS like every run before it for 4-5 runs it's continued to trend towards a -NAO/+PNA essentially ridging/higher pressure on the NA side.

The temporary cooling the models were showing has started to vanish quickly. Maybe an albedo response? 

I thought with that vortex sliding East of GIS and the other one West over the CA/Hudson area there was no way ridging wouldn't blow back up over GIS and walla.  It's just the natural loading pattern for GIS ridging to have lower heights over England/NE ATL/Scandanavia or SW of GIS around the Hudson area.

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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1809 on: July 01, 2014, 06:10:02 PM »
I've a question considering the melt ponds:

Given last years very cool summer in the Arctic high latitudes (e.g 80-90N), are we sure that ALL snow on the ice melted out in 2013? I saw on the Canadian weather site that the current snow cover in the CAB should be 1 m.. http://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/352_100.gif

Is it plausible that all snow in the high latitudes was transformed to melt ponds last summer? If not, that could be the solution to why we haven't seen any big drops in SIA before SIE..

Realistic or should this be in the note of "stupid questions"?

//LMV

I a not sure how realistic it is that link is.  But you are correct all of the snow in 2013 did not melt out over the Southern arctic basin.

There is this:

http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012G.htm


For some reason maybe snow melt from having so much drift onto the buoy reporting has sprung back into life.  And we can see snow dropping hard which makes sense given the pattern.

But snow didn't melt out last Summer over the Southern Central Basin.  Those jumps in fall are probably snow storms.  But eventually that should of waned and it's probable drifting is the cause of some of the later ones.

Never the less Ice Bridge scanned the snow in March-April.




Buoys show snow cover pretty much has been steady after ice bridge scanned it.

I think this year snow will melt out over the entire ice pack.  Some pro mets think the extra snow could aiding in the fog we have seen so far.



I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1810 on: July 01, 2014, 06:20:11 PM »
I don't think they are Pollyanna.

I think it's rain.




I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1811 on: July 01, 2014, 06:22:54 PM »
You guys will find this very interesting as well:

CT concentration updated.

I happened to save a visible image of the fog yesterday.


I am not saying everywhere under the blanket of fog there would be a big surface drop in concentration on the CT area charts.  But still.  There is no way it's just a coincidence.

Obviously SSMIS scanned that area around the same time the fog was clear there. 





I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1812 on: July 01, 2014, 06:25:27 PM »
How are you telling the difference between fog and cloud on MODIS?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1813 on: July 01, 2014, 06:46:52 PM »
How are you telling the difference between fog and cloud on MODIS?


I apologize for the large image size. But it makes it easier to see.

The fog is an off white. Almost a dirty white.  The clouds are thicker white and sit on top of the fog.  So it's pretty easy to distinguish. 

Further than that.  Most of the clouds have frozen water vapor/precipitation with them.  The Fog doesn't and most of the time clouds block out the surface completely while the fog doesn't and you can see the blue from the ice sheet bleed thru a bit.

You can see the large off white fog field over the central basin with some clouds on top of the fog.  But for the most part as we would expect with a large anticyclone and mid level ridge the arctic is pretty much cloud free. 

The continuous fog is something most of us tracking the ice now for 5-10 years+ haven't ever seen like this.  Strange.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1814 on: July 01, 2014, 07:01:33 PM »
Jim Hunt posted the 1st image a few days ago from Obuoy9.  It was a hell of a foggy day.

The other image is from a few minutes ago.

This is at 88N/140W.  Near the pole.  The Fog has broken today and there is visible surface melting.

We can see a little bit off fog left attm.  Maybe it's a sign the fog is about to start clearing.  This area according to ice bridge is relatively snow free outside the drifts.   





I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1815 on: July 01, 2014, 07:11:40 PM »
The continuous fog is something most of us tracking the ice now for 5-10 years+ haven't ever seen like this.  Strange.
I wonder if the fog is the result of the ice being so fractured -- the warm(ish) ocean water could be dumping large amounts of moisture into the air, which then hugs the ground and doesn't clear because of the relatively moderate winds.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1816 on: July 01, 2014, 07:18:22 PM »
Siffy, I wondered the same thing,  on http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/ look for (Anomaly from 1961-1990 climatology, 1 degree, weekly resolution) I figured the baseline for DMI probably started later perhaps even after 1990 I did a cursory search but couldn't confirm it.

LRC1962

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1817 on: July 01, 2014, 07:43:42 PM »
I wonder if the fog is the result of the ice being so fractured -- the warm(ish) ocean water could be dumping large amounts of moisture into the air, which then hugs the ground and doesn't clear because of the relatively moderate winds.
Could it also be warm moist air coming in, cooled off turned into fog then the heat transfer to ice makes air far colder then it was so temps would be cold, but a lot of heat getting pumped into ice. Have no background on processes so maybe way off base. But anything I can dig up on fog makes me wonder if the story this year ends up being the fog. 1st causing sensors lots of trouble, but also causing inter structural melt we can not see. At this point also it could remain hidden because we haven't had a lot of wind blowing the ice around so shells could remain shells.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1818 on: July 01, 2014, 08:14:45 PM »
I wonder if the fog is the result of the ice being so fractured -- the warm(ish) ocean water could be dumping large amounts of moisture into the air, which then hugs the ground and doesn't clear because of the relatively moderate winds.
Could it also be warm moist air coming in, cooled off turned into fog then the heat transfer to ice makes air far colder then it was so temps would be cold, but a lot of heat getting pumped into ice. Have no background on processes so maybe way off base. But anything I can dig up on fog makes me wonder if the story this year ends up being the fog. 1st causing sensors lots of trouble, but also causing inter structural melt we can not see. At this point also it could remain hidden because we haven't had a lot of wind blowing the ice around so shells could remain shells.

I am reasonably confident the moisture producing fog is local. My sense is out-of-region moisture will show up either as high cloudiness or precipitation.

The benefit of fog of course is albedo.  The danger of fog is condensation... And requisite transfer of heat to the top of the ice.  As this heat was picked up elsewhere (e.g. evaporation from polynyas), it is a net amplification of heat being applied to the ice.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1819 on: July 01, 2014, 08:30:06 PM »
Definitions. That's the problem. Over at Neven's blog Wayne said every year has a cliff, not so in my opinion.

In terms of CT Area residuals there has been no cliff this year. ... That is the June cliff, it is a new feature of the seasonal cycle - I can post past periods of anomalies.

What we have in NSIDC extent (attached) is large drop typical of recent years, but taking the whole summer, recent years show more of a summer slide with the June drop being more the start of that downwards slide rather than a 'June Cliff'.

So Michael is correct, there has been no June cliff in 2014 because this is a feature of CT Area. What we see is the start of a 'summer slide' in NSIDC Extent, as in 2007 and 2013, 2014 shows a large drop. But if people start calling every large drop a 'cliff' then the new behaviour of CT Area is devalued and confusion is the result.
Only CT area matters? A large drop is not a cliff? You are right about one thing: definitions are important to communication. IMHO, "cliff" is exactly the right word to use:

cliff /klif/
noun
1. a steep rock face, especially at the edge of the sea
2. a critical point or situation beyond which something bad or undesirable may occur

The risk of misunderstanding is greatest if you constantly redefine your expectations in terms of the worst years. That is the type of thinking behind the "2013 recovery" meme.

What we have had is a drop, you can call it a cliff if you like, but the June Cliff is the term I've used to refer to the drop in CT Area anomalies. I've attached a plot of CT Area anomalies for June (baseline 1980 to 1999) - voila! - no cliff.


In my first blog post on the subject I called it a June crash, that was a mistake, whenever I use the word crash blog posts 'go viral' it is an emotive word. So I started calling the CT Area anomaly drop a cliff, because in key years it has been so steep.

Now if you want to call every drop a cliff, I'm not stopping you. But if we all start calling things by different names then people will rapidly lose track of what the hell is going on.

Obviously, coming as it does from the blogger who produces detailed breakdowns of PIOMAS and uses ASCAT, NSIDC Extent, and NCEP/NCAR data regularly in blog posts I do not think CT Area is the only index. I have redefined my expectations in terms of the 2007 volume loss event and the 2010 volume loss event, what the 'worst years' redefine is the range of possibilities for ice state following those volume loss events. You might find it interesting to read my take on the so-called recovery of 2013.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/the-2013-sea-ice-rebound-that-never-was.html
It's a blog post that starts with a definition, which seems apt.

I can only second what Peter and Neven have explained - sorry but I don't have the ability to post at work, hence the delayed response.

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1820 on: July 01, 2014, 08:35:16 PM »
It can't be coming from local water.  The surface of the water is at or near freezing point (it has to be, it's mixed in with ice).  Ergo it'll only condense out if the air above is colder than that.  "Sea smoke" - i.e. mist and fog forming above open leads - is a feature of the freezing season, not the melt season.

Looking on MODIS at higher magnification, I think this is simply a lower layer of cloud.  I can see the upper-level clouds casting shadows on the lower-level cloud, and I can also see the lower layer of cloud casting shadows on the ground.  Fog wouldn't do that.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1821 on: July 01, 2014, 08:38:52 PM »
It's not a low cloud deck. 




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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1822 on: July 01, 2014, 08:42:52 PM »
... the area you outlined on the MODIS picture is approximately the size of Europe, and you're extrapolating from one webcam?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1823 on: July 01, 2014, 08:43:12 PM »
Fog...

High pressure, ligh winds (i.e. little turbulent mixing) over ice. Insolation hitting the ice doesn't cause warming of the surface, it just melts ice and the surface stays at 0degC, so there's little convective mixing. Without turbulent mixing from the wind inversions form, and relatively warm air aloft in contact with the (very) low level inversion causes condensation - i.e. fog.

The 850mb temperatures are frequently above zero, lapse rate below that implies warmer air nearing the surface by several degC, 850mb geopotential height is around 1400metres in June. So aloft (say 100m) above the ice air temperatures are likely to be quite a bit above zero at this time of year.

But it has been a long day so I might be missing something.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1824 on: July 01, 2014, 08:44:57 PM »
Peter made a reasonable point while I was writing that - may be low cloud.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1825 on: July 01, 2014, 08:51:20 PM »
This is from a Pro met.

Quote
Friv,
It could be advection fog over the basin with warmer airmasses trying to advect over the cold icepack with still quite of a bit of snow cover on it. I'm not entirely sure though because we don't have very good obs up there. But meteorologically it would make sense. It would be more likely to last and be thicker if the snow cover was still deep versus years where tons of melt ponds are present. Lot of melt ponds would raise the sfc temp of the ground there and reduce the potential for advection fog.

 

Winds have been coming off the North Atlantic for days now around the large Anti-cyclone. Which has been over the central basin and not the NA side like typical dipole ridging where winds would be coming from the Pacific side.

Pretty much from every angle on and off since the large anti-cyclone developed winds have been advecting from a warmer source.

How would a massive low cloud deck form underneath a large ridge that is vertically stacked from the surface to the mid levels?

This would only aid in the surface inversion preventing mixing hence why the Fog has been there since the large anti-cyclone formed.

Lastly clouds are way to thick and would block out the ice.  Are we talking about thinnest most solid low cloud deck in Earths history? 







« Last Edit: July 01, 2014, 08:57:33 PM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1826 on: July 01, 2014, 08:55:44 PM »
But at the places where there still is a snow cover there won't be as much heat absorbing under the ice giving a higher rate of bottom melt as for the areas with bare ice. This due to a higher albedo from the snow compared to bare ice. This shuld be a plausible explanation to why we haven't seen "normal" temps in the higher latitudes although high pressure covering Arctic.

Friv: thanks for your answer about the snow cover! :)

If the HP continues to hold its grip we may see melt ponds later which should do some real damage to the ice unless there is a switch to more cyclonic weather..

//LMV

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1827 on: July 01, 2014, 09:02:27 PM »


Quote
Highs are frequently associated with light winds at the surface and subsidence through the lower portion of the troposphere. In general, subsidence will dry out an air mass by adiabatic, or compressional, heating.[8] Thus, high pressure typically brings clear skies.[9] During the day, since no clouds are present to reflect sunlight, there is more incoming shortwave solar radiation and temperatures rise. At night, the absence of clouds means that outgoing longwave radiation (i.e. heat energy from the surface) is not absorbed, giving cooler diurnal low temperatures in all seasons. When surface winds become light, the subsidence produced directly under a high-pressure system can lead to a buildup of particulates in urban areas under the ridge, leading to widespread haze.[10] If the low level relative humidity rises towards 100 percent overnight, fog can form.[11]


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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1828 on: July 01, 2014, 09:07:24 PM »
Are these legit polynyas or artefacts? They don't seem to show up on EOSDIS, and weren't there yesterday.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1829 on: July 01, 2014, 09:08:09 PM »
Definitions. That's the problem. Over at Neven's blog Wayne said every year has a cliff, not so in my opinion.

In terms of CT Area residuals there has been no cliff this year. ... That is the June cliff, it is a new feature of the seasonal cycle - I can post past periods of anomalies.

What we have in NSIDC extent (attached) is large drop typical of recent years, but taking the whole summer, recent years show more of a summer slide with the June drop being more the start of that downwards slide rather than a 'June Cliff'.

So Michael is correct, there has been no June cliff in 2014 because this is a feature of CT Area. What we see is the start of a 'summer slide' in NSIDC Extent, as in 2007 and 2013, 2014 shows a large drop. But if people start calling every large drop a 'cliff' then the new behaviour of CT Area is devalued and confusion is the result.
Only CT area matters? A large drop is not a cliff? You are right about one thing: definitions are important to communication. IMHO, "cliff" is exactly the right word to use:

cliff /klif/
noun
1. a steep rock face, especially at the edge of the sea
2. a critical point or situation beyond which something bad or undesirable may occur

The risk of misunderstanding is greatest if you constantly redefine your expectations in terms of the worst years. That is the type of thinking behind the "2013 recovery" meme.

What we have had is a drop, you can call it a cliff if you like, but the June Cliff is the term I've used to refer to the drop in CT Area anomalies. I've attached a plot of CT Area anomalies for June (baseline 1980 to 1999) - voila! - no cliff.

<snip>

In my first blog post on the subject I called it a June crash, that was a mistake, whenever I use the word crash blog posts 'go viral' it is an emotive word. So I started calling the CT Area anomaly drop a cliff, because in key years it has been so steep.

Now if you want to call every drop a cliff, I'm not stopping you. But if we all start calling things by different names then people will rapidly lose track of what the hell is going on.

Obviously, coming as it does from the blogger who produces detailed breakdowns of PIOMAS and uses ASCAT, NSIDC Extent, and NCEP/NCAR data regularly in blog posts I do not think CT Area is the only index. I have redefined my expectations in terms of the 2007 volume loss event and the 2010 volume loss event, what the 'worst years' redefine is the range of possibilities for ice state following those volume loss events. You might find it interesting to read my take on the so-called recovery of 2013.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/the-2013-sea-ice-rebound-that-never-was.html
It's a blog post that starts with a definition, which seems apt.

I can only second what Peter and Neven have explained - sorry but I don't have the ability to post at work, hence the delayed response.

Fair enough. I hadn't realized that "June cliff" referred specifically to CT area -- I guess that I should have lurked longer before jumping to conclusions. (Perhaps "June CT cliff" would be clearer for the uninitiated.) My sincere apologies.

I agree that there was no June CT area cliff. If indeed the June cliff is a proxy for melt ponding, then the current discussion of fog seems apt. Could fog be the new melt pond?

This page describing radiation fog vs. advection fog might be of interest to some: http://www.meted.ucar.edu/dlac/website/resources/advrad.htm .
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1830 on: July 01, 2014, 09:14:46 PM »
Quote
This page describing radiation fog vs. advection fog might be of interest to some:
http://www.meted.ucar.edu/dlac/website/resources/advrad.htm .

Thanks that is really informative and makes a lot of sense.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1831 on: July 01, 2014, 09:28:28 PM »
Are these legit polynyas or artefacts? They don't seem to show up on EOSDIS, and weren't there yesterday.

They are definitely not areas of open water.

I'd guess they are areas of light rain that fell within a short period of being scanned by AMSR2 before they had a chance to drain or cool enough to not fool the sensors.

The GFS shows scattered rain showers in the region today associated with a system over ESS region.

But I am totally guessing.  Very much like the Hudson bay thing that just happened when a much larger and warmer area of rain fell over the ice causing the sensors to think it was open water.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1832 on: July 01, 2014, 09:30:55 PM »
Hudson Bay is now under attack from the 980-985 hPa cyclone.. Should make the ice to break completely and be gone in the next 48-72 hours.

The ECMWF 12z run is interesting! I know it's far away but what IF that big cut-off materializes in Siberia at +192-240 hours? Could be really interesting! :)

/LMV

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1833 on: July 01, 2014, 09:48:19 PM »
It can't be coming from local water.  The surface of the water is at or near freezing point (it has to be, it's mixed in with ice).  Ergo it'll only condense out if the air above is colder than that.  "Sea smoke" - i.e. mist and fog forming above open leads - is a feature of the freezing season, not the melt season.
Not quite correct, I think. Energy applied to the water at the surface can and does force moisture into the air in excess of what you would expect from temperature, without significantly increasing air or water temperature - the phase change picks up the heat. In effect, it drives up the partial pressure of H2O at the surface.  That *will* cause the air to become supersaturated. When it condenses out, the heat released similarly can be diffused in ways that decrease the effect on temperature.

That said, there is still the question as to whether what we see is fog, or not.
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jbatteen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1834 on: July 01, 2014, 09:57:07 PM »
I was just up at the north shore of Lake Superior for the solstice and it was unbelievably foggy, especially considering that the last of the ice had just finished melting in the lake so the surface temperature was still in the 30s, and the air temperature itself was 45-55 degrees.  Previously the main type of fog I was used to in southern MN was as Friv described earlier with high pressure, lots of radiational cooling bringing air temperature to the dewpoint, especially with clear skies after a fresh rain so lots of moisture at the surface.  I read the local NWS forecast discussion and was enlightened.  Warm, humid air was advecting and being cooled to below the dewpoint by the lake.  The fog would break for a short period during peak heating when the sun was able to warm the air above the dewpoint, but in the evening the fog swiftly formed again.

Moving from knowledge to speculation, I suspect that this type of situation adds a lot more heat to the water than just warm air advection.  The phase change transfers far more heat to the water than warmer air might.  The air doesn't have to be particularly humid to have a dewpoint above the temperature of the surface of the ice, so air only a few degrees warmer than the ice could still transfer significant heat.

I don't know how to use the tools, but we could maybe check this theory by checking the dewpoint of the parcels of air advecting into the Arctic before they get there.  If it's above the ice surface temperature, it's advection fog we're seeing.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1835 on: July 01, 2014, 09:58:39 PM »
jdallen, in order for the fog to form in that fashion, there must be some cyclical change of either temperature or incoming heat energy going on.  First the sun rises, evaporates water and makes the air moist, then it sets and the temperature falls below the dewpoint causing fog.  But I don't think there's enough of a diurnal cycle going on to drive that process.  I could be wrong.  But the case for advection fog is must stronger I think.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1836 on: July 01, 2014, 10:08:14 PM »
A time series of the Laptev Polnya that might interest people.


Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1837 on: July 01, 2014, 10:51:38 PM »
Very interesting, Chris, thanks. And thanks also to everyone for the fog discussion. If this keeps up, I might open a separate thread (if anyone would like to do that, feel free). I looked around a bit on Google and found some stuff, but don't have time to add it here.

I did, however, open two new polls for July, which will run for 10 days:

NSIDC 2014 Arctic SIE September minimum: July poll

Cryosphere Today 2014 Arctic SIA daily minimum: July poll

Looking forward to your votes!
« Last Edit: July 01, 2014, 11:41:18 PM by Neven »
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TerryM

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1838 on: July 01, 2014, 11:45:09 PM »
Hot Rocks


I get a high today of 19.3 C at BANKS ISLAND!
In 2012 the islands of the CAA got so warm that all the ice, even the very old, very thick MYI in the channels melted away, then ice from the CA began advecting into the kill zone.


None of the shores around Hudson bay are within 15 degrees of the freezing point AND AT MOOSONEE WE HAVE 31.7 C. My friends in Chisasibi, who only saw their first robins in 2005 were at 32 C yesterday. In 2005 they were freaked out by the southern birds entering the area for the first time. Wonder how they feel about the heat wave.


Terry

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1839 on: July 01, 2014, 11:50:00 PM »
IIRC Dr. Francis observed very unusual heavy fog and large swells close to the pole in 2012 or 2013 while on Polarstern.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1840 on: July 02, 2014, 12:21:25 AM »
Hot Rocks


I get a high today of 19.3 C at BANKS ISLAND!
In 2012 the islands of the CAA got so warm that all the ice, even the very old, very thick MYI in the channels melted away, then ice from the CA began advecting into the kill zone.


None of the shores around Hudson bay are within 15 degrees of the freezing point AND AT MOOSONEE WE HAVE 31.7 C. My friends in Chisasibi, who only saw their first robins in 2005 were at 32 C yesterday. In 2005 they were freaked out by the southern birds entering the area for the first time. Wonder how they feel about the heat wave.

Terry

Probably a lot like how it feels to live in the Midwest in the United States in summer it sucks ass.

The last few days have been 90/75 during the afternoon.  Nasty heat because of the dews  I hate it.  You can't do shit outside.

We are about to cool down to upper 50s/low 60s and upper 70s and low 80s and it's a welcomed miracle!

On top of that when we get lucky enough to get a cool spell from April on it typically comes with death and destruction.

I hear Severe storms are moving further North into Canada now.

The CAB gets smacked around hardcore the next few days Terry.

The winds shift over the next couple days and the fog should vanish and we will get to see what if any damage.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1841 on: July 02, 2014, 12:29:56 AM »
The Big Crack continues its long trek to the Atlantic...

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1842 on: July 02, 2014, 12:30:50 AM »
Boom!

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1843 on: July 02, 2014, 12:56:05 AM »
NSIDC has released the June 2014 data and graphs.

The monthly mean of June 2014, the sixth lowest:
 



Mean sea level pressure, june 2014:



Air temperature anomaly at 925hPa, june 2014:


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1844 on: July 02, 2014, 01:00:27 AM »
This space for Rent.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1845 on: July 02, 2014, 01:03:24 AM »
Boom!

Amundsen?
Never mind. yup.

That's about 7500KM2 of ice cut loose there...
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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1846 on: July 02, 2014, 01:19:56 AM »
NSIDC has released the June 2014 data and graphs.
[ snip]
Air temperature anomaly at 925hPa, june 2014:

So, despite average or cooler than average temperatures more or less everywhere, we END the month in the hunt for all-time lows. Can there be any doubt that we're in a "new normal?" And can there be any doubt that if it warms up for a bit in July or August, the whole place is going to just fall apart?

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1847 on: July 02, 2014, 01:33:31 AM »
Curious how the warm tongue from Canada in the 925 HP just stops dead when it hits the Beaufort.  SLP suggests the winds should be carrying this air mass into the Arctic.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1848 on: July 02, 2014, 01:43:22 AM »


I have no idea if it is normal but 83 degrees at Inuvik seems quite high


http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Inuvik+Canada+CAXX0632

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1849 on: July 02, 2014, 01:54:59 AM »


I have no idea if it is normal but 83 degrees at Inuvik seems quite high


http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Inuvik+Canada+CAXX0632

According to the towns website at http://inuvik.ca/living-in-inuvik/community-profile/facts-figures/
Quote
Extreme Maximum: +31.7 degrees Celsius (89.06 degrees Fahrenheit)

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