Here are my thoughts on how deceiving area is that I posted on Americanwx.com.
If you disagree please explain way. I would love to see what I am missing.
As far as sea ice area is concerned. It's some funny business.
Below is area on June 24th for 2007-2013. On this date which is 20 days from now area was 100K above 2007. 300-500K below 2008, 2009, and 2010. 320-400K above 2011 and 2012.
This forum acts as if this didn't happen. Like 2013 was predetermined on June 30th to finish where it did which is just a bunch of BS.
In-spite of the great June weather 2013 area had a July cliff and the only reason it stopped dead in it's tracks was incredibly favorable weather.
2007.5590 -1.6413345 4.7590709 6.4004054
2008.5590 -1.0043856 5.3366885 6.3410740
2009.5590 -1.0948830 5.3055224 6.4004054
2010.5590 -1.2928658 5.1075397 6.4004054
2011.5590 -1.7688890 4.6315165 6.4004054
2012.5590 -1.8916670 4.4494071 6.3410740
2013.5590 -1.5433087 4.8570967 6.4004054
So below is 2013 on 7/4, 7/24, and 8/4.
Area literally stalled during this period rising 20K overall.
Extent dropped -625K during this period on Jaxa. You can clearly see the open water change that reflects that. Well Area is also effected by that. If the surface of the ice would have stayed the same on the concentration charts area would have kept dropping. Albeit at a slower pace than the pace it was on before the 11 day stall.
Area stalled because the weather became incredible for ice preservation. If a warm dipole would of been in place during that 11 days there is no way area wouldn't have continued to drop steadily.
So we check the weather that is the sole reason for why 2013 was in 4th place below years like 2008, 2009, and 2010 by 300-500K on July 24th.
So from the point where 2013 was only 100K above 2007 in area and 300-500K below 08-10 to Sept 1st we can see the incredible difference in the weather.
To say it would take "extreme" weather at this point on July 5th until the end or this year will be like 2013 is just absurd unless that means it will take 6 weeks of "extremely" favorable ice retention weather to be like 2013 then maybe that it's applicable.
There is zero evidence that prior happenings before July 24th 2013 would have some how magically prevented 2013 from continuing the path it was on if it had even semi favorable ice loss weather.
If you don't agree with this assessment as most of this forum has shown they don't please feel free to show me what I am missing.