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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1950 on: July 05, 2014, 04:07:45 AM »
Hi Terry.

I assume you mean Arthur. It looks as if it is going to be hovering around southern Greenland by the middle of next week, so I would think it would bring a lot of rain and warmth to the melting of the ice sheet there, but I doubt there would be much of it left by the time it gets to any substantial sea ice, if it ever does.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/07/04/hurricane-arthur-could-dump-inches-rain/vBZWQzr1wxswCO2G5TuaOI/story.html

It doesn't need to be an organized storm to bring a LOT of energy to the arctic, either in the form of hot air or warm rain.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1951 on: July 05, 2014, 04:41:32 AM »
It's actually not transient and becomes quite cold over the Canadian Basin in the medium range.


Anyways.  If we are tracking July extent losses on Jaxa.  We would start with July 1st as the base and would subtract all the way to the August 1st date right?

July 1st - 8936847 - 8777806 = 159,041.  Roughly and -80K the first two days.


I expect Jaxa to probably have a drop tonight between 70-90K.  There are visible losses in the Hudson, Baffin, Kara, Chukchi, and Laptev regions.






Now as far as the next few days.  We could potentially see tremendous losses between the Kara and Laptev.  Low pressure has set up that is already blasting the Laptev with compacting off shore winds.  This set up stays this way indefinitely as winds eventually start veering more Easterly. But for at least the next 48 hours winds are going to explode off shore not only that but directly over the large body of open water slamming into the ice.  We will probably see the ice line in the Laptev move poleward/Nansen basin at an incredible rate of compaction.  But obviously it won't only be compaction with warm winds blowing warm wavy water into already beat down ice. 


What is unique is the SLP is very compact and basically sits over the islands between the two seas.  So while the ice in the laptev gets smoked towards the Nansen basin/pole the winds also turn right around and slam the Eastern Kara ice which has already been decimated and will be compacted back towards the shoreline but it's so weak it will get crushed and rocked around and probably dissipate extremely fast. 

The Laptev fast ice may also vanish over the next few days.



Other regions should be stagnant in terms of extent loss besides the Baffin and Hudson as whats left continues to vanish.

You can see tomorrow the torching flow hard into the Laptev.




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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1952 on: July 05, 2014, 04:44:55 AM »
SLP so far this Summer has been high in general. 

But this gives us an idea of how the ice has moved.



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TerryM

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1953 on: July 05, 2014, 08:06:12 AM »
Wili, jdallen
My bad [size=78%]


During Sandy there was a very strong cyclonic system that started in Hudson Bay and dissipated over Baffin Bay. It was too late in the season (or too early in the freeze season) to do much damage but at present I'd think Ekman pumping and extreme rains might leave their mark.
Fortunately we're close to neap tide.
Terry[/size]

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1954 on: July 05, 2014, 10:33:41 AM »
The lack of melt ponds, open water within the pack and this:



I wouldn't be surprised if things stall big time, just like last year, as soon as weather becomes less conducive to melting. The only thing of real interest is that Laptev gaping hole.

Strange year this year.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1955 on: July 05, 2014, 10:41:58 AM »
The lack of melt ponds, open water within the pack and this:



I wouldn't be surprised if things stall big time, just like last year, as soon as weather becomes less conducive to melting. The only thing of real interest is that Laptev gaping hole.

Strange year this year.
To fully stall will require supportive weather across the Laptev, Beaufort and Kara.  Pretty tall order.  We shall see.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1956 on: July 05, 2014, 01:10:24 PM »
There are some details that might satisfy your need of interest, Neven:



I agree that it is hard to lurk through all clouds, fog etc., but it looks like Vilkitsky Strait is opening up.
Big slices of the thin, blue-melt-ponded ice are letting go.
Vilkitsky Strait is a vital part of the Northeastern sea route, between Severnaya Zemlija and Taymir peninsula.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1957 on: July 05, 2014, 02:02:05 PM »
I don't think Arthur will have much effect on sea ice but it could have a significant effect on the southern GIS.

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1958 on: July 05, 2014, 04:40:56 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised to see flat or even positive changes in extent or even area today and maybe tomorrow. The Greenland and Barents Seas will be getting ice shoved into them, and below you can see what is happening in the Laptev: on the left, loose ice floes are being pushed into the polyna, and on the right, the fast ice that broke up is spreading and migrating. Obviously, there isn't more ice than there was before -- there is, in fact, less, and it's more vulnerable than ever -- but the metrics by which we measure ice can give the wrong impression sometimes. Extent doesn't diminish until there is almost no ice, and area doesn't seem to handle the high concentrations very well (like 80% to 95%). So ice that spreads out, which I think will be the dynamic more and more as time passes, doesn't get accurately measured by anything but volume -- if that.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1959 on: July 05, 2014, 05:36:33 PM »
Ice extent tells us how much open water there is.

In the end area will catch up.  Ignoring ice thickness and weather will lead you astray.

In 2010 going into July using the sane techniques we using today everyone would be talking about how 2007 is dust.

We saw how that turned out.


In 2013 folks ignored weather and we saw how that turned out.

Area is pretty much guaranteed to be above a 2.9 mil km2 mark because when we get to mid August area drops are essentially tied with extent drops because surface melt ponding is over.

The idea that extent has to stop dropping because area around 80N is high when there is ice all the around the Pacific side down to near 70N is foolish.


Neven, when you use DMI for SSTS you also gotta check how cloudy it is



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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1960 on: July 05, 2014, 05:40:06 PM »
The lack of melt ponds, open water within the pack and this:



I wouldn't be surprised if things stall big time, just like last year, as soon as weather becomes less conducive to melting. The only thing of real interest is that Laptev gaping hole.

Strange year this year.

If there was open water showing up on that graphic right now within the ice pack we would be on our way to crushing 2012.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1961 on: July 05, 2014, 06:13:17 PM »
Looks like area and extent might diverge even more if area doesn't fall within in the CAB before the lower heights and cloudy conditions return.

While big ridging and high pressure are a staple over the Pacific basin.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1962 on: July 05, 2014, 07:22:05 PM »
So far the models are being highly cooperative in setting up the potential "dome" shaped look to the ice field on concentration charts at the minimum.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1963 on: July 05, 2014, 09:16:12 PM »
Euro is nasty.

The ESS region has been obscure by clouds and looks better then it really is.  On Jaxa we can see the ESS has been above freezing now pretty much continuously since the end of June.  It has even rained there. 

Favorable compacting winds and well as heat advection and sun is going to cause a quick smoking of the region.

With the coolest air over the Southern Arctic basin area there will probably not drop very fast unless it takes a sharp turn during the short range when huge WAA and sun break out. 



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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1964 on: July 05, 2014, 09:25:10 PM »
Here's why I think we're seeing extent losses slow. Ice is being pushed into most of the open areas: The Barents, Greenland, Laptev, Beaufort, Kare, ESS -- all are seeing ice flushed into them. Only the Chukchi is immune.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1965 on: July 05, 2014, 10:05:12 PM »
Just had a look at the DMI graph and something that I was thinking about at that moment was: haven't there been somewhat less wavier jet stream activity since 2012? Right now we have a big HP over Arctic but as far as I can remember we haven't have any real heat dome being pulled into the Arctic basin yet.. Subjective perception, yes I know..

EURO 12z quite bad, but not as bad as it could have been.. I find the possible cyclone coming to CAB in about 192 hours interesting. Could do some good damage to the ice... AO predicted to remain slightly below normal. I think that kind of pattern will continue through the rest of the summer.

I don't get it how the ESS still can look so pretty damn good.. CAA and Beaufort seems to take a big blow soon unless weather conditions become more hostile there. Laptev and Kara is crap!!

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1966 on: July 06, 2014, 01:35:21 AM »
Here are my thoughts on how deceiving area is that I posted on Americanwx.com. 

If you disagree please explain way.  I would love to see what I am missing.






As far as sea ice area is concerned.  It's some funny business.



Below is area on June 24th for 2007-2013.  On this date which is 20 days from now area was 100K above 2007.  300-500K below 2008, 2009, and 2010.  320-400K above 2011 and 2012.

This forum acts as if this didn't happen.  Like 2013 was predetermined on June 30th to finish where it did which is just a bunch of BS.


In-spite of the great June weather 2013 area had a July cliff and the only reason it stopped dead in it's tracks was incredibly favorable weather.


Quote
    2007.5590  -1.6413345   4.7590709   6.4004054
    2008.5590  -1.0043856   5.3366885   6.3410740
    2009.5590  -1.0948830   5.3055224   6.4004054
    2010.5590  -1.2928658   5.1075397   6.4004054
    2011.5590  -1.7688890   4.6315165   6.4004054
    2012.5590  -1.8916670   4.4494071   6.3410740
    2013.5590  -1.5433087   4.8570967   6.4004054


So below is 2013 on 7/4, 7/24, and 8/4.

Area literally stalled during this period rising 20K overall.

Extent dropped -625K during this period on Jaxa.  You can clearly see the open water change that reflects that.  Well Area is also effected by that.  If the surface of the ice would have stayed the same on the concentration charts area would have kept dropping.  Albeit at a slower pace than the pace it was on before the 11 day stall.

Area stalled because the weather became incredible for ice preservation.  If a warm dipole would of been in place during that 11 days there is no way area wouldn't have continued to drop steadily.






So we check the weather that is the sole reason for why 2013 was in 4th place below years like 2008, 2009, and 2010 by 300-500K on July 24th. 










So from the point where 2013 was only 100K above 2007 in area and 300-500K below 08-10 to Sept 1st we can see the incredible difference in the weather.

To say it would take "extreme" weather at this point on July 5th until the end or this year will be like 2013 is just absurd unless that means it will take 6 weeks of "extremely" favorable ice retention weather to be like 2013 then maybe that it's applicable.

There is zero evidence that prior happenings before July 24th 2013 would have some how magically prevented 2013 from continuing the path it was on if it had even semi favorable ice loss weather.

If you don't agree with this assessment as most of this forum has shown they don't please feel free to show me what I am missing.





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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1967 on: July 06, 2014, 01:37:54 AM »








 

It was a huge talking point on here last year about how much larger in "area" the Pacific side is and the ice loss above 80N on the Atlantic side wasn't near enough to make up for the Pacific side ending with way more ice then any of the previous years.

This is well into the Canadian Basin and the ice where these melt ponds have formed is 1.61M thick.  Which is nothing.  That MYI that traveled into the Canadian Basin in 2013 was beat down but not melted out.  It's regrowth was pathetic roughly 50CM or so.

Which is why cryosat in March showed sub 2M thick ice reaching all the way to 80N.  With thicker ice over the Chukchi and Eastern ESS which is the easiest region for ice to melt in the arctic basin because of the shallow seas there and warm flow coming in from the Pacific. 


Quote
    Current Buoy Data (07/05/2014):

    Pos: 77.04 N, 154.43 W
     
Melt ponds at this location on July 4th barring an extreme reversal in weather means this ice is gone.  You can pretty much X out any ice 2M of thinner in the Canadian basin right now.  It's going to melt out barring a miracle.

It doesn't matter how old it is when it's under 2M thick.

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Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1968 on: July 06, 2014, 01:51:29 AM »
Friv, I don't think it's going to be like 2013 (unless, like you say, weather), but it's not going to come close to 2012 either. Then again, I think you say that too.

Like I said, it's the SIA going down so slow (meaning lack of divergence and melt ponds), combined with the SSTs (I'm just used to seeing red all over the place on the DMI SST anomaly map as the melting season progresses), Wipneus' reports concerning the CAB on the ASMR2 thread, and don't forget snow cover anomalies not as extreme as previous years, all these things make me think that the decrease could stall again as soon as the weather flips. Maybe not as spectacular as last year, but let's say a serious slowdown. Whereas things didn't stall in 2012, which of course had quite a serious kickstarter to the melting season. The start is simply very important.

But maybe not. I have to admit that I'm often very much influenced by short-term changes. I'd like to see the latest PIOMAS numbers.

If this year does make it to record territories, I can start from scratch again.  ;D
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1969 on: July 06, 2014, 02:30:16 AM »
All I am saying is with the ice pack we have this is far far from over.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1970 on: July 06, 2014, 03:35:06 AM »
Just had a look at the DMI graph and something that I was thinking about at that moment was: haven't there been somewhat less wavier jet stream activity since 2012? Right now we have a big HP over Arctic but as far as I can remember we haven't have any real heat dome being pulled into the Arctic basin yet.. Subjective perception, yes I know..

EURO 12z quite bad, but not as bad as it could have been.. I find the possible cyclone coming to CAB in about 192 hours interesting. Could do some good damage to the ice... AO predicted to remain slightly below normal. I think that kind of pattern will continue through the rest of the summer.

I don't get it how the ESS still can look so pretty damn good.. CAA and Beaufort seems to take a big blow soon unless weather conditions become more hostile there. Laptev and Kara is crap!!

It's been cloudy there for a while but above freezing.  In a couple days it will clear out and get Sunny for the foreseeable future.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2014186.aqua.4km

Look at the Beaufort region up close. The ice has been decimated in places but it's been shrouded in clouds.  As things clear out over the next few days it will all come to light.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1971 on: July 06, 2014, 04:55:33 AM »
I have noticed that 2012 at this date had a lot of water visible between the floes in the Pacific side of the open Arctic.  As far as I can tell there is little here this year, except closer to the Beaufort.

I've been wondering about the transport of ice into the open water areas.  One thing I remember from 2013 is that the Beaufort refused to open despite a fair bit of warmth in that area.  As far as I could tell there was significant melt in the Beaufort, but the ice transport pattern kept pushing the ice into the Beaufort to slow down the opening up of a an area of open ocean.

At the moment we seem likely to have weather pushing ice into the Beaufort and Laptev.  With these areas open and some time to get some solar warming into the ocean I'd guess that the ice will tend to melt quite quickly as it encroaches.  If no ice is pushed in then the sun just heats the water warmer and warmer and it doesn't directly do anything to melt any ice, so the solar energy is wasted?  Or perhaps the warm water feeds warmth and water vapour into the atmosphere which helps melt ice elsewhere.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1972 on: July 06, 2014, 05:29:31 AM »
I have noticed that 2012 at this date had a lot of water visible between the floes in the Pacific side of the open Arctic.  As far as I can tell there is little here this year, except closer to the Beaufort.

I've been wondering about the transport of ice into the open water areas.  One thing I remember from 2013 is that the Beaufort refused to open despite a fair bit of warmth in that area.  As far as I could tell there was significant melt in the Beaufort, but the ice transport pattern kept pushing the ice into the Beaufort to slow down the opening up of a an area of open ocean.

At the moment we seem likely to have weather pushing ice into the Beaufort and Laptev.  With these areas open and some time to get some solar warming into the ocean I'd guess that the ice will tend to melt quite quickly as it encroaches.  If no ice is pushed in then the sun just heats the water warmer and warmer and it doesn't directly do anything to melt any ice, so the solar energy is wasted?  Or perhaps the warm water feeds warmth and water vapour into the atmosphere which helps melt ice elsewhere.

I agree about the ice circling around in the Beaufort which will slow losses there but melting is going to pick up from the ridging developing attm.

I can't agree about the Laptev the ice is being pushed further poleward/nansen basin.

The fast ice that is being pushed off the Laptev shore area will be melted out

Environment Canada had a 4C surface water reading in the Laptev near 80N in that little slot of open water that has pushed further North then the ice around it.  That is very warm.

The forecast continues for warm windy compression of the ice to blow off land/open body of water into the ice North of the Beaufort which will open up more water but also crush the ice from the side with waves of water that is in the 2-5C+ range + whatever solar energy is available.

To the East the ESS is about to clear out and get smoked by a compaction regime from the NE part of Siberia across the fast ice and parts of the pack ice with a large HP over the entire basin.

The Russian side gets crushed the next 7-10 days.  I would think the fast ice will pretty much break up and melt out and the pack ice will be pushed poleward.










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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1973 on: July 06, 2014, 05:35:53 AM »
The euro is much warmer over the NA side in the Canadian basin.  So we will see how that turns out.

But the models agree the Russian side gets destroyed.

And the Euro is quite a bit worse than the GFS.

The ESS region has had above 0C temps since late June almost continuously and now big time torching and sun is coming as the clouds clear we will see concentrations plummet hard.









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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1974 on: July 06, 2014, 06:38:32 AM »
Friv, I don't know if I'm the one you're arguing with, but I don't think we actually disagree on anything.

My point the last couple of days -- that extent and possibly area losses are going to slow down -- is just a short term prediction. Like, for the last couple of days, today, and maybe tomorrow or so. (It even turns out I was right: IJIS went from over 100K per day to 80K to 70K and today (July 5) was 51K, the slowest day in a while). But the current drift conditions are temporary, and all that is happening is that ice is moving into areas where it is easier to melt, leaving less and less in the core areas to survive the summer.

But I agree with you that it won't last. I've studied the images, and I've never before seen the ice so fractured and vulnerable. If we get three weeks of ice-melting weather over the next two months, and the rest is just normal, there won't be much left of anything < 2m thickness.

And I also agree that 2013 would have been a record or near-record year had it not been for very favorable (ice-preserving) weather in the late summer.

But 2013 did its damage, and the winter was not very cold, and so we are tracking with the record years despite the fact that the summer, so far, has been pretty mild. Maybe that will continue and 2014 will end up just another middle of the pack year. Or maybe it will warm up and we'll see something remarkable. It's still the arctic, so it is very hard to predict.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1975 on: July 06, 2014, 11:39:19 AM »
I'll put one view on the forecasts: the EURO 00z run has a very interesting solution in the way that a really BIG POWERFUL cyclone bottoming out at 968 hPa, to evolve over Kara sea in 192 hours. That would for sure crush the ice completely there.

Models also seem to agree that the HP-dominated weather is to come to an end and being reaplced by more cloudy & cyclonic weather in the Arctic.

I think we'll see some century drops in the middle of next week when the HP has done some real damage to the ice. My guess is that we'll see drops of 50-80K saturday to monday followed by century drops by tuesday to friday...

Oh, HYCOM has a big "crack" next week close to northeast Greenland.. See and compare the two attached pics:




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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1976 on: July 06, 2014, 08:59:19 PM »
Hi Terry.

I assume you mean Arthur. It looks as if it is going to be hovering around southern Greenland by the middle of next week, so I would think it would bring a lot of rain and warmth to the melting of the ice sheet there, but I doubt there would be much of it left by the time it gets to any substantial sea ice, if it ever does.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/07/04/hurricane-arthur-could-dump-inches-rain/vBZWQzr1wxswCO2G5TuaOI/story.html

While Arthur delivers some heat and moisture to southern Greenland in a few days, the 12z GFS looks like it expects the remnants of typhoon Neoguri to push 10C 850mb temps up toward the east siberian and chukchi seas in the 150-200hour time frame.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1977 on: July 06, 2014, 09:43:10 PM »
The 12z OP euro after day 6-7 would bring a screeching halt to the melt season.


That is a huge change.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1978 on: July 06, 2014, 10:01:38 PM »
The 12z OP euro after day 6-7 would bring a screeching halt to the melt season.


That is a huge change.

Well, perhaps not that huge; after all, this melt season has been a pretty tepid one so far. After not seeing a July 'cliff' for the fisrt time in a long while, CT SIA is in 7th place and falling back in the pack rather quickly, managing just eight century-or-large breaks in the past three weeks (against 15 last year, 11 in 2012 and 2011, 14 in 2010, and so on). And JAXA SIE has slowed considerably the past four days, averaging just 72k km2 per day against a long-term average of well over 100,000 for this time of year.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1979 on: July 06, 2014, 10:08:07 PM »
-NAO doesn't break even with the Scandinavian ridge.

Maybe some CAB higher albedo feedback helping fuel this cold core vortex in spite of GIS ridging?



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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1980 on: July 06, 2014, 10:17:00 PM »
Yet NSIDC extent is still in 4th, behind 2012, 2010, and 2011; about neck and neck with 2007. That alone, I'd consider that a good run. However, with these deviations between one index and the other, I have a hard time summarizing the nature of this season. With area's margin wider than extent compared to recent years, we have a lot of compaction, not a lot of melt ponding. Relatively, anyway. Certainly it's been a fast season compared to the long-term average. This is a point friv made some time ago. To finish the 4th lowest or so with 35 years of satellite data and hundreds or perhaps thousands more years of proxy data is atrocious. Compared to the extreme outlier, 2012, yes, it's been tepid. Aside that, these weekly forecasts have a notoriously fickle nature about them, and so I can't put much stock anymore in what to expect beyond the next couple of days.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1981 on: July 06, 2014, 10:17:59 PM »
The 12z OP euro after day 6-7 would bring a screeching halt to the melt season.


That is a huge change.

Well, perhaps not that huge; after all, this melt season has been a pretty tepid one so far. After not seeing a July 'cliff' for the fisrt time in a long while, CT SIA is in 7th place and falling back in the pack rather quickly, managing just eight century-or-large breaks in the past three weeks (against 15 last year, 11 in 2012 and 2011, 14 in 2010, and so on). And JAXA SIE has slowed considerably the past four days, averaging just 72k km2 per day against a long-term average of well over 100,000 for this time of year.

Area is undoubtedly higher than the post 2006 years.



But extent = open water and that is among the record low years right now.

In that regard the melt season is hardly tepid. 




Also even where the SIA says it's 100 percent.

It's not.

It's been sunny near the pole almost 5 of 6 days running now.

We can clearly see surface melt along the ridge line near the buoy.  Also the ice destabilized enough for the buoy to tip over. 





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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1982 on: July 07, 2014, 12:18:48 AM »
Surely this image does show 100% ice coverage? There is a crack which would clearly not register in a satellite image and surface melt resulting in reduced thickness of snow cover. Sure this reduces albedo and increases heat transfer into the ice, but with high outgoing long wave radiation the net input just isn't as high as you seem to expect.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1983 on: July 07, 2014, 01:11:01 AM »
Surely this image does show 100% ice coverage? There is a crack which would clearly not register in a satellite image and surface melt resulting in reduced thickness of snow cover. Sure this reduces albedo and increases heat transfer into the ice, but with high outgoing long wave radiation the net input just isn't as high as you seem to expect.

I guess not.  Although the top image shows 100 percent concentration pretty much everywhere except some very small melt ponds or lakes and cracks at the top where I wouldn't expect 100 percent concentration.

The bottom image clearly shows a large area of of cracks large enough to see on this low res sat image and it shows darkened albedo/surface melt.  Those cracks didn't show up just today yet CT shows this:

The 1st image is by the Laptev where CT shows reduced concentration in spite of essentially 100 percent ice coverage.

The 2nd image is North of Iceland where CT shows almost universal 100 percent concentration in spite of the large cracks of open water and reduced albedo.

So what am I supposed to make of that?  Those cracks are clearly pretty huge right?










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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1984 on: July 07, 2014, 01:22:38 AM »
I thought you were talking about the O-bouy 9 pictures you posted earlier??

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1985 on: July 07, 2014, 01:33:30 AM »
I thought you were talking about the O-bouy 9 pictures you posted earlier??

I am just saying in general when the top layer of the ice and snow get wet CT concentration historically drop.

Even at the O-buoy 9 area the snow is wet.

You responded with that should be 100 percent concentration.
I responded showing an area that is clearly not even close to 100 percent another that is much closer if not 100 percent over a large and CT shows the opposite of what you would expect.

I guess the water in the snow melt isn't enough for CT to show anything but 100 percent.

But the huge region of visible open water cracks on satellite North of Iceland has been there for a little while but no drop at all.

I didn't make it clear in the post earlier that in general the large area CT shows as 100 percent is totally bogus not specifically obuoy 9 but there has been surface melting there. 


Enough that is has shown up on the Aqua images.




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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1986 on: July 07, 2014, 01:47:01 AM »
My apologies for being rude. 

It just seems strange the way concentration can be 100 percent where it's clearly not and over a large area. 

That area has been pretty foggy or cloudy recently so maybe it will be picked up on tomorrow.  Or maybe not.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1987 on: July 07, 2014, 02:40:42 AM »
I wonder if there is a sensor degradation issue?  A year or three back there was a post at WUWT showing CT today view just as the melting season was starting gloating about how the ice pack was in great shape because of all the 100% ice.  Comparing to previous years images at same time it looked much better, although that was obviously not a good description of the ice (even if that was 2013 the condition was still much worse than say 1995).  And it does seem that during recent years in early spring there has been much more 100% ice than in previous decades.   My thought at the time was that it was due to thinner ice being smoother with less ridging. 

But with the 100% showing up with both definite surface melt and some areas of water in between floes, perhaps the sensor is starting to degrade.  It used to reduce quite often (if only slightly) for clouds/winds etc.  Unless they recalibrated the sensor to try and get rid of these false reductions in concentrations.  But that would seem to miss the point of having a continuous SMI record since 1980, unless the recalibrated previous years as well, which does not seem to be the case.

Checking a few images at random from history, there is nothing like the current large area of flawless concentration in July from previous years.  In April many years are close, but they are more like 95% perfect rather than 100% flawless.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1988 on: July 07, 2014, 02:41:58 AM »
It just seems strange the way concentration can be 100 percent where it's clearly not and over a large area. 
This is a point I was trying to make earlier. CT area seems to map high concentrations to 100%, even when they're maybe 95% or less. So I think CT is overestimating what's out there. It's also seems very sensitive to clouds, so you have to look at an average of what it is saying.

But what none of it is telling us is how utterly fractured and thin most of the ice cap is. So if we get sunshine, it's going to melt. And if we get a big storm, it's going to melt. And if we get two straight months of cool, calm, cloudy weather... well... pigs are gonna fly.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1989 on: July 07, 2014, 02:49:47 AM »
Speaking of melt ponds. Did anyone notice that NPEO webcam #2 seems to have died? #1 died a while ago, but below is the last image from #2, and that was July 1. It was almost melt ponding then, and it spent the next few days above zero, so I gotta think it was pretty soggy. It seems to have jumped to sub zero temps today, but the sensor may be lying in a pool of slush.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1990 on: July 07, 2014, 02:51:00 AM »
I wonder if there is a sensor degradation issue?  A year or three back there was a post at WUWT showing CT today view just as the melting season was starting gloating about how the ice pack was in great shape because of all the 100% ice.  Comparing to previous years images at same time it looked much better, although that was obviously not a good description of the ice (even if that was 2013 the condition was still much worse than say 1995).  And it does seem that during recent years in early spring there has been much more 100% ice than in previous decades.   My thought at the time was that it was due to thinner ice being smoother with less ridging. 

But with the 100% showing up with both definite surface melt and some areas of water in between floes, perhaps the sensor is starting to degrade.  It used to reduce quite often (if only slightly) for clouds/winds etc.  Unless they recalibrated the sensor to try and get rid of these false reductions in concentrations.  But that would seem to miss the point of having a continuous SMI record since 1980, unless the recalibrated previous years as well, which does not seem to be the case.

Checking a few images at random from history, there is nothing like the current large area of flawless concentration in July from previous years.  In April many years are close, but they are more like 95% perfect rather than 100% flawless.


Remember images from 1979-1987 are SSMI, 1987-2000 or so is SSMIS then ASMRE from 2000 or so to Oct 4th 2011.

Then SSMIS again since then.

The AMSRE images all have way higher concentration then the SSMI or SSMIS images for some reason.

Case in point:

In spite of how those two images look 2010 was around -800K lower then 2014 in area on that date.

I have emailed CT via where they say to three times this summer so far asking why they have AMSRE images and if data during when they used AMSRE was from AMSRE or SSMIS because it would make a difference when it comes to area because of scanning resolution.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1991 on: July 07, 2014, 02:52:34 AM »
Speaking of melt ponds. Did anyone notice that NPEO webcam #2 seems to have died? #1 died a while ago, but below is the last image from #2, and that was July 1. It was almost melt ponding then, and it spent the next few days above zero, so I gotta think it was pretty soggy. It seems to have jumped to sub zero temps today, but the sensor may be lying in a pool of slush.

NPEO2 was in the same region as above where I posted the aqua image showing the huge cracks between the ice floes.  We can obviously see a large body of water behind the buoy on the camera image.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1992 on: July 07, 2014, 03:05:38 AM »
Hey, look, Great Bear Lake melted while the clouds were hiding it. I expect the melting will proceed into the archipelago now -- you can see the breakup in the lower right of the pic, but that should start to increase now that things have warmed up.

Also, those fires on the left of the image are incredibly persistent. They've been burning for weeks. You'd think some rain would have put them out by now. The smoke they're generating is incredible -- and I don't even want to think about the amount of carbon they're putting back into the atmosphere.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1993 on: July 07, 2014, 03:28:57 AM »
Quite a beating the Laptev-Kara regions are taking. 



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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1994 on: July 07, 2014, 03:57:56 AM »
Speaking of Great Bear Lake (and Great Slave Lake), since there has been a pulse of warm air passing through northwestern Canada for days now, I'm wondering how much of an impact the warm river water discharge from Mackenzie will contribute to bottom melting in Beaufort. At least according to Nghiem et al. 2014 ("Effects of Mackenzie River discharge and bathymetry on sea ice in the Beaufort Sea"), this was an important component of the 2012 melt-out of Beaufort. I suspect this will come to the aid of melting ice, even if weather doesn't cooperate for a few days within the Arctic basin. Compared to last year, there is much more fragmenting in Beaufort into ice floes, and a greater ice retreat.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1995 on: July 07, 2014, 05:39:04 AM »
So I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the ESS is going to break up over the next week.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1996 on: July 07, 2014, 05:51:23 AM »
[...]I'm wondering how much of an impact the warm river water discharge from Mackenzie will contribute to bottom melting in Beaufort. At least according to Nghiem et al. 2014 ("Effects of Mackenzie River discharge and bathymetry on sea ice in the Beaufort Sea"), this was an important component of the 2012 melt-out of Beaufort. I suspect this will come to the aid of melting ice, even if weather doesn't cooperate for a few days within the Arctic basin. Compared to last year, there is much more fragmenting in Beaufort into ice floes, and a greater ice retreat.
I think you're absolutely right. I suspect this is a factor in several areas of the arctic. With effectively all of the NH snow melting earlier and earlier, you have a lot of dark land and plants soaking up warmth and rain carrying that warmth into the arctic ocean. Not to mention, as the permafrost thaws, it will decay with exothermic reactions that will pump even more heat into the system. And then there's the methane. And these fires aren't helping matters -- not their heat, but the CO2.

Honestly, the system could be in a runaway feedback cycle already, and we just don't realize it yet.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1997 on: July 07, 2014, 06:20:23 AM »
Quote
Honestly, the system could be in a runaway feedback cycle already, and we just don't realize it yet.

YES.

And as ice in the Arctic continues to decline over the coming decade.......and as a completely open Arctic Ocean arrives WITHIN a few years......that feedback has only one way to go:  INCREASED FEEDBACK.

What will the effects be of a fully melted Arctic Ocean be?  And what will the effect be of a fully melted Arctic Ocean be when it is melted for 2 or 3 months during the summer (whether that is in 20 years or 50 years)?

We are on track to confront some VERY UNPLEASANT outcomes.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1998 on: July 07, 2014, 07:03:03 AM »
Yeah Bruce, the ESS is finally clearing out and looks like ****.


I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #1999 on: July 07, 2014, 07:14:53 AM »
HOLY CRAP THE 00Z GFS DECIMATES THE ESS REGION.  WOWZERS.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow