The 2014 Melting Season

[Frivolousz21]

[jdallen]

So I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the ESS is going to break up over the next week.

Not too far out on that limb you'll find me as well.  I'll add, if the model is good, that we may be seeing activation of the Beaufort Ice Grinder.

[Theta]

HOLY CRAP THE 00Z GFS DECIMATES THE ESS REGION.  WOWZERS.

The one region that needs to be in perfect shape to avoid certain catastrophes.

[werther]

On the blog, under update 4 ‘high times’, there’s a firm discussion on the mid-time status of this melt season. I’ve contributed with a short post on the visible ice quality day 186.
To illustrate, I’ve focused on a small (app. 120x120 km) part of the Siberian side of the CAB, about 300 km North from the Laptev/ESS – CAB boundary and some 100 km North of the Laptev Bite:

This is day 185.

Here’s day 187.

In two days, sunshine and surface winds created a lot more room between the fragmented, individual floes. The same for the amount of surface melt. I hold the blues to indicate bare melting ice surface covered with a thin layer of water. The greys reflect snow in different stages of melt.
On the corresponding MODIS tile, you’ll see a large field to the North and into the direction of the Pole, that looks a bit like the ‘plate’ that dominated the Beaufort Sea for such a long time in July/August ’13. It is illustrative for the state that makes SIA/CT showing such a high area in comparison with the ’10-’12 years.
The 'plate' is in no way part of the 'mesh-pack'. That structure, that defined the MYI-pack in the CAB for so long, has retreated to a shabby, lead-cut area of about 1.2 Mkm2 near the CAA.

Back to the detail; compared to last year, the fragmented floes are ‘glued’ together by FYI, melting snow cover and rubble, whereas last year this breccia was completely wiped out by the constant dynamics of cyclonic activity.

There’s still enough time for a cyclone to shake this up or more of the still, high pressure weather and sunshine to melt out the breccia. If so, SIA will plunge and the Laptev Bite can expand rapidly into the CAB.

[ChrisReynolds]

ECMWF and GFS broadly agree until Friday, by which time the Beaufort High is still present but low is over the Atlantic sector. After that, GFS maintains the Beaufort High, while ECMWF shows the highs diminish and lows take over across the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic Ocean sea ice compactness (area/extent) has fallen consistently since 29 June, from 81.4% down to 79.6% on 5 July. However it is still above average, and is about 5 to 6% above many recent years (including 2007 and 2012).

Arctic Ocean extent anomaly is the 5th lowest since 1979 as of 5 July. Arctic Ocean area anomaly is the 6th lowest since 1979 as of 5 July.

[jdallen]

<snippage>

Back to the detail; compared to last year, the fragmented floes are ‘glued’ together by FYI, melting snow cover and rubble, whereas last year this breccia was completely wiped out by the constant dynamics of cyclonic activity.

There’s still enough time for a cyclone to shake this up or more of the still, high pressure weather and sunshine to melt out the breccia. If so, SIA will plunge and the Laptev Bite can expand rapidly into the CAB.

Your second image reminds me a lot of what portions of the Bering and Chukchi looked like about a 10 days or so before they started disintegrating seriously.  Here's a sample of what I'm thinking about.  Fewer melt ponds obviously, but the energy being applied and the state of the ice I think do translate.  The point I would make is, that given a month at this juncture of the season, areas with ice in what approximates the condition you illustrate could easily see a 50% plus decrease in both area and extent.

(from EOSDIS Worldview) Chukchi:

May 5th:


May 19th


May 29th


June 7th

[werther]

It does look alike, JDAllen, yes.

That part of Chukchi is 'icefree' now. Going up North, tile r05c03, the process can be seen also day 188. There, too, the difference day 185-188 is clear when compared. It won't take long for the 'breccia' to disappear, leaving the same sort of fragment swath we saw last year.
Stretching from the Alaskan coast all around the CAB to Frantsa Yosefa.
The remaining floes will be even thinner than they were last year.

[werther]

The opening of Vilkitsky Strait in further progress:

[Shared Humanity]

The above sea ice drift and speed images continues to suggest little or no export out the Fram. This has been the case for much of this melt season. I would think this is contributing to higher concentrations in the Arctic Basin.

[Frivolousz21]

The 00z euro is much worse then 12z that area of low heights all over the arctic is gone.

This is the third or fourth time this summer an OP euro run has a large low pressure/heights field then it vanishes the next run

[Gray-Wolf]

Sadly friv, as we enter deeper into the NH 'cane/typhoon season things can change even more over the short time frame? It's that butterflies wing damn it!

[jdallen]

The above sea ice drift and speed images continues to suggest little or no export out the Fram. This has been the case for much of this melt season. I would think this is contributing to higher concentrations in the Arctic Basin.

Absolutely concur, SH.  Last year I think the export was exactly what permitted the initial fragmentation of the pack after it shattered.

[Frivolousz21]

The 00z Models and 06z GFS once again have gone away from the good ice retention pattern and back towards a -NAO HP based scheme.

The euro op has a spurious SLP over the Pacific side that it's ensemble mean isn't on board with post day 6-7.

That is nasty for the ESS region.  My God.

[Frivolousz21]

This is at 77N in the Canadian Basin.  The ice is 1.61M thick. Which might be wrong because the graphic shows a lot of snow left but you can see there is only thin patches of snow left. 

I am not sure if that is melt ponds, water on bare ice, or just water logged ice.

but given the models and the new 12z this region gets annihilated.

[Frivolousz21]

The 12z GFS crushes the Pacific side.  Which is where all the ice is(latitude).

The ESS ice/fast ice is going to just disintegrate.

We are now dropping below 500W/M2 at the pole.  But solar insolation stays above 400w/m2 for another month between 70-90N.

That is equal to daily tropical insolation.  So it's still a bakery up there.

[werther]

SH, JDAllen,

I have a different opinion on the relation Fram Strait loss-SIA/compaction. IIRC most transport through Fram Strait occurred during wintertime, the mean extent lost 200K more during the period '00-'14 than in the 50's (ScienceDaily; Bjerkness). In the main melt period it is a factor, but not decisive.

From my detailed grazing over the MODIS tiles I get the impression that this year is again one of differences in melt pattern/visible effects. As Neven often says, it is like 'nothing is a dead certainty...'.
Last Sep-Oct-Nov was a snowy refreeze. I remember some day when all structure was blurred out through extensive snow drives, even before the Arctic winter fell. Later, (local) observations by FI Bernice Notenboom's team confirmed anomalous snow cover this winter/spring.

The effect this snow cover may have (or still has for some time) is a temporary delay of the appearance of the individual floes outside the 'mesh-pack'.
That translates (IMO) in temporary, structureless 'ice-plates' over large areas that seem to lack melt ponds as well as holes (explaining Neven's despair ).

A side effect could be extensive formation of fog/low clouds every time the sun starts sublimation on the snow pack. That could be forcing mean temps down at the same time. There are not many other reasons why this May-July period could be anomalously cold resembling last year.

On a sideline in my reasoning; mean temps over the whole Arctic Ocean, for May-July, lie somewhere between those during '13 and '12. That's what my NCEP/NCAR excursions often indicate.

So, my recap: snow cover holds back temps and masks the fragmentation/SIA.

And from the sideline; as these ín between '12/'13 temps follow an anomalous warm winter, what '14 has in store could just be enough to reveal the real, thin, fragile state of the ice.

[deep octopus]

Ice in the ESS has traditionally been a relict of the summer melt season for the past few years. Some have alluded to it as being a "bridge" or an "arm". Though really, I'd call it more a pier than a bridge, as open water now reliably separates land from the September ice each summer in this region.

I would also allude this type of final shape of the summer ice minimum to be that of a fork, with three prongs jutting out from the central Arctic, forming the perimeters of the Laptev "bite" and even a Beaufort "bite" of sorts in some instances. The arm has made an appearance in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2013. It was absent in 2007, 2008, and 2012, forming a more triangular shape. At least in 2007 and 2012, these were associated with record losses of ice.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0913

Now with some multiyear ice having apparently migrated towards this part of the Arctic, it is probably for the best that this region be avoided. The model posted by friv is very aggressive. I think it may portend that we finish this year with a triangular-shaped minimum. Add in the Beaufort grinder, and this could get nasty.

[werther]

I see Friv just posted new images from O-buoy10 (I think); you see that snow cover? Exactly what I suppose in my post on Fram/SIA and the state of the pack this year.

Friv, I think that is a thick, slushy melt layer of last autumn's snow. It took a while for sun and summer to take hold. But now it is going down.
Depending on it's compactness/height, it remains white/drained dry (the greys on MODIS) or becomes completely waterlogged, letting the blueish ice reflect through (the blues on MODIS).

Of course this scale of detail isn't visible on MODIS, But the 250x250 m pixels take the hue of what's most prolific.

I suppose this works through the whole band circlin' the CAB right up to Frantsa Yosefa.

All that melt water...it could, in the process, hurt the underlying ice. That's an understatement...

[Frivolousz21]

Good points guys.

To bad that ice is so thin.  It's not going to take much over the Canadian basin the next two months to melt out a huge part that didn't melt in 2013.

In some ways 2013 preconditioned the Canadian Basin this year to have a big melt.

It took that older 2-3.5M ice that slide West in winter and late Spring of 12-13 and melted it strongly but not out.  Last winter before the great flush on the Laptev side it was pushed even further West.

The rebound was mostly 30-60CM while the losses from 2013 were 1-2M.

Now we have a huge area of 3-6yr old ice in the Canadian basin that is actually thinner than the ice to it's West over the Chukchi and ESS.

MYI or not.  It's only July 7th it will take a miracle weather reversal now to spare pretty much any ice in the Canadian basin around 1.5 to 1.75M thick or thinner regardless of age.


It's a lot easier to melt ESS ice and Chukchi ice because of the shallow ridge and warm Pacific under current that has no where to hide like it can in the deeper Beaufort because the fresh water layer. 

Given the nasty weather modeling coming to fruition and given where we are with 30 days to go of 400w/m2 per day I think a huge collapse on the Pacific side as well as the Laptev/Kara side could bring an unforeseen drop this year thru August if the weather cooperates.

On top of that bottom ice melt with the ice being so thin over the Canadian Basin will be much easier to ramp up than compared to 2013 when the ice was 2-3.5M at this point for the most part.

On the Laptev said it speaks for it self the ice has been flushed to the barents since early March.

Now we have a huge open water body with waves and 2-5C ssts being bombarded into the side of the ice pack. 

Folks have noted the lack of flushing in the fram and Barents but the Barents is more like a machine even if ice is flushed out by the time it reaches that 80N line roughly it's likely under 1M for sure even if it's not when it gets to the warm salty Barents its going to essentially vanish into thin air. 

Another factor and correct me if I am wrong but the ice formed in the Laptev region that moves to the Barents region or even Nansen basin should have lower salinity.
I would assume as that ice moves into higher salinity waters it would melt from the bottom as well? 

As clouds are finally dispersing over the Atlantic side an area of seemingly open water but its not open water shows up but it could also be very thin ice. 

Or maybe it's an artifact.  But it started yesterday and grew today as warmer/sunnier conditions are moving in.

I hope for love of god we get a good MODIS scan tonight of that area.

[Frivolousz21]

The euro looks to be having some phasing issues with the SLP over the Pacific side in the middle of building heights.

Gonna have to wait for the Ensembles to see if they disagree with it still.

We'll see.  Never the less quite the influx of heat from all over still takes place.

[jdallen]

SH, JDAllen,

I have a different opinion on the relation Fram Strait loss-SIA/compaction. IIRC most transport through Fram Strait occurred during wintertime, the mean extent lost 200K more during the period '00-'14 than in the 50's (ScienceDaily; Bjerkness). In the main melt period it is a factor, but not decisive.

From my detailed grazing over the MODIS tiles I get the impression that this year is again one of differences in melt pattern/visible effects. As Neven often says, it is like 'nothing is a dead certainty...'.
Last Sep-Oct-Nov was a snowy refreeze. I remember some day when all structure was blurred out through extensive snow drives, even before the Arctic winter fell. Later, (local) observations by FI Bernice Notenboom's team confirmed anomalous snow cover this winter/spring.

The effect this snow cover may have (or still has for some time) is a temporary delay of the appearance of the individual floes outside the 'mesh-pack'.
That translates (IMO) in temporary, structureless 'ice-plates' over large areas that seem to lack melt ponds as well as holes (explaining Neven's despair ).

A side effect could be extensive formation of fog/low clouds every time the sun starts sublimation on the snow pack. That could be forcing mean temps down at the same time. There are not many other reasons why this May-July period could be anomalously cold resembling last year.

On a sideline in my reasoning; mean temps over the whole Arctic Ocean, for May-July, lie somewhere between those during '13 and '12. That's what my NCEP/NCAR excursions often indicate.

So, my recap: snow cover holds back temps and masks the fragmentation/SIA.

And from the sideline; as these ín between '12/'13 temps follow an anomalous warm winter, what '14 has in store could just be enough to reveal the real, thin, fragile state of the ice.

Quite rational and well argued.  I don't recall export dropping that dramatically, and indeed, the greatest export could be is about 10000KM2/ day.  In the greater scheme of things, that is little different than the past, and does not play a decisive role in the melt season.  What it does do is create greater opportunity for melt. The greatest impact is to create space for movement.  An example of that this year, which I think I illustrated, was how export int the Barents permitted the huge Polyna in the Laptev to open.  The Fram is inactive now, and so the region it most directly affects has the illusion of durability ( no doubt, in part due to the snowfall mechanics you mentioned).

[jdallen]

This is at 77N in the Canadian Basin.  The ice is 1.61M thick. Which might be wrong because the graphic shows a lot of snow left but you can see there is only thin patches of snow left. 

I am not sure if that is melt ponds, water on bare ice, or just water logged ice.

but given the models and the new 12z this region gets annihilated.

Rain has been sweeping over the area, and may continue into the Central Arctic Basin.  That looks like rain on the lens.

Weather forecast showing mid teens (!!!) at 850hPa over the Pacific side of the Arctic? I can't imagine any snow cover surviving.

Speaking of thick snow cover... Looking at the buoy image... it is a decidedly two edged blade.  While it may keep albedo up longer, once melted, we have far more fresh surface meltwater to deal with.  That larger, warmer heat trap will be very hard on the ice.

We might be about to see some dramatic changes.

[Neven]

In the meantime PIOMAS has updated:



According to PIOMAS volume is now above all post-2010 years.

More on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog in about half an hour.

[Neven]

Latest PIOMAS update on the ASIB.

My conclusion: forget about 2012(if not already), and 2007/2011 will be very difficult to match.

And here I ask: Will 2013 weather produce 2013 result? I know you don't think so, Friv, and I tend to agree, but this latest PIOMAS update has really taken me by surprise.

[werther]

So according to PIOMAS there's now just under 15000 km3 in their count-area, about 2500 more than '11-'12 and even some 700km3 more than last year?

I'd very much like some words of the PIOMAS-team on this...

[Frivolousz21]

So according to PIOMAS there's now just under 15000 km3 in their count-area, about 2500 more than '11-'12 and even some 700km3 more than last year?

I'd very much like some words of the PIOMAS-team on this...

It's based on area right?

Area being so much higher would surely add quite a bit of volume.

[Bruce]

So according to PIOMAS there's now just under 15000 km3 in their count-area, about 2500 more than '11-'12 and even some 700km3 more than last year?

I'd very much like some words of the PIOMAS-team on this...

Here's what they'd say:

The uncertainty of the  monthly averaged ice volume anomaly is estimated as ±0.75  10^3 km^3. Total volume uncertainties are larger than those for the anomaly because model biases are removed when calculating the anomalies. The uncertainty for October total ice volume is estimated to be  ±1.35 10^3 km^3 .

So I wouldn't read too much into small differences in the total. They could easily be off by 2500 km^3.

[greatdying2]

garbage in, garbage out...

[Neven]

garbage in, garbage out...

So you think that there's a serious chance of breaking the 2012 record this year? Because if it's GIGO, it's been GIGO every year, and so we can still compare years, and this year is way behind the other post-2010 years.

[Sebastian]

Thickness today and 2012:


There's some extra ice in the Kara sea but apart from that?

[Frivolousz21]

garbage in, garbage out...

So you think that there's a serious chance of breaking the 2012 record this year? Because if it's GIGO, it's been GIGO every year, and so we can still compare years, and this year is way behind the other post-2010 years.

The increase could simply be the ice along the NA shoreline.

I am not saying we will match 2012.

But that ice isn't melting out regardless.  The ice pack is in pretty bad shape considering extent is running along record lows.

[jdallen]

garbage in, garbage out...

So you think that there's a serious chance of breaking the 2012 record this year? Because if it's GIGO, it's been GIGO every year, and so we can still compare years, and this year is way behind the other post-2010 years.

I think 2012 is improbable but still in play.

I'm suspicious of the PIOMAS numbers, but without better information, will otherwise reserve judgment.

[Bob Wallace]

"Way behind" doesn't hold for all measurements.  Extent is pretty close to the record years for NSIDC and IARC-JAXA databases.  2007 and 2012 breakaways were later in the year and due to strong weather.  And weather is unpredictable that far out.

(Am I remembering the 2007 cause correctly?)

Plus we think we see 2014 ice being poorer 'quality' than most previous years. 

I think we're still on the far straightaway, not far out of the starting gates.  Entering the final turn and dash to the finish is a long time in the future.  A 2012 late season storm could hit.  Stuff could happen and has plenty time to happen.

It looks like the Nares is opening up.  Winds could pop up that start shoving thicker ice into the Fram and out into other areas of warm Atlantic water.

2012 didn't break away from 2007 until early August.  At this point in time if extent/volume are staying close then a new record is possible.  (I'm saying nothing about probability.)

[greatdying2]

garbage in, garbage out...

So you think that there's a serious chance of breaking the 2012 record this year? Because if it's GIGO, it's been GIGO every year, and so we can still compare years, and this year is way behind the other post-2010 years.

I think (and I am not an expert by any means) that PIOMAS may be responding to the unusually high and somewhat mysterious area readings this year, which, as many here have discussed, are unlike recent years. If these differences do not reflect increased actual area, but something else (e.g., decreased melt ponds due to increased snow), it seems plausible to me that it might mess up PIOMAS.

(Whether decreased melt ponds, if that's what is happening, actually corresponds to decreased melting over the season is a different question that I don't think PIOMAS is designed to address.)

I don't know about breaking the 2012 record, but I also don't know how much to trust PIOMAS. It seems to have a fairly large uncertainty. I think it's very useful for evaluating the long-term volume trend, but for short-term prediction I'm not convinced that it's a silver bullet. Is it?

[Nightvid Cole]

I'm beginning to think the September minimum will be really, really crazy. Not in area or extent, but in being far more shifted to the Atlantic side than ever, with almost no retreat of the ice edge on that side but at the same time having open water to very high latitudes on the Pacific side. I await a gridded PIOMAS thickness data plot ...

[Neven]

I'm beginning to think the September minimum will be really, really crazy. Not in area or extent, but in being far more shifted to the Atlantic side than ever, with almost no retreat of the ice edge on that side but at the same time having open water to very high latitudes on the Pacific side. I await a gridded PIOMAS thickness data plot ...

Wipneus and Chris Reynolds will probably soon have stuff up, but in the meantime I've received this from someone at the PSC:



This confirms that 2014 will most probably not be like 2013, but I would need to see more comparisons to estimate chances of making it to the top 3.

[greatdying2]

That unusually thick ice near the Kara, does it have any chance of surviving?

[jdallen]

That unusually thick ice near the Kara, does it have any chance of surviving?

Here's what some of that "unusually thick ice" looked like during a bit of clear weather... 6 days ago.

You see before you one example of why I'm skeptical about the PIOMAS numbers.

[jdallen]

I'm beginning to think the September minimum will be really, really crazy. Not in area or extent, but in being far more shifted to the Atlantic side than ever, with almost no retreat of the ice edge on that side but at the same time having open water to very high latitudes on the Pacific side. I await a gridded PIOMAS thickness data plot ...

Wipneus and Chris Reynolds will probably soon have stuff up, but in the meantime I've received this from someone at the PSC:



This confirms that 2014 will most probably not be like 2013, but I would need to see more comparisons to estimate chances of making it to the top 3.

Pertinent to my last post, note the area around the northern tip of Nova Zemlya above, and the image posted below from the first of July:

[greatdying2]

Pertinent to my last post, note the area around the northern tip of Nova Zemlya above, and the image posted below from the first of July

A metre thicker than 2013, eh? 

Also, does the image from the PSC not suggest that there was more, not less, transport out through Fram and that other strait than in June 2013? I thought conventional wisdom here was the opposite?

[Yuha]

I suspect that the PSC thickness comparison does not represent the situation at the end of June but some kind of an average over June. For example, that region around the northern Novaya Zemlya did have a substantial amount of ice in early June this year but was already ice free in early June 2013.

[Bruce]

Wipneus and Chris Reynolds will probably soon have stuff up, but in the meantime I've received this from someone at the PSC:



This confirms that 2014 will most probably not be like 2013, but I would need to see more comparisons to estimate chances of making it to the top 3.

Nice plot, Neven. Everywhere 2014 has more ice is either going to melt or never would melt. Everywhere 2014 has less ice has already melted or almost certainly will melt. So I've got to think that unless the weather is very ice-preserving for the rest of the summer, we're going to come in lower than 2013.

[Bruce]

And just to emphasize the that the quality of the ice is different from 2012, here is a shot of the area north of Greenland from today. In 2012, it was mostly a solid sheet. Now it's heavily fractured and crumbling to pieces. It will be interesting to see if there are any solid expanses of ice at the end of the season. My guess is "no." I think we're going to see something new. And not in a good way.

[TheUAoB]

I'm not really adding anything to the discussion, but I do feel it's important to recognise that the CT product and of course PIOMAS are models, and attempts are made to filter out anomalous sensed data such as apparent falls in area due to melt pond formation, which naturally isn't an actual reduction in ice concentration.  So my suspicion is, as has been discussed above; the conditions this year are somewhat unusual, and just happen to be tuned so as to fool the algorithm which attempts to discriminate between actual area loss and surface melt.

[werther]

.... As clouds are finally dispersing over the Atlantic side an area of seemingly open water but its not open water shows up but it could also be very thin ice. 

Or maybe it's an artifact.  But it started yesterday and grew today as warmer/sunnier conditions are moving in.

I hope for love of god we get a good MODIS scan tonight of that area.

I've taken a good look with the MODIS tile in my CAD grid. That 150K grey swath lay just on the side of a sweeping cloud band over clear visible surface. The ice is fragmented out there and the 'breccia' between the floes is gradually fading. The floes have different hues of grey indicating melting snow cover in all stages. That is actually the quality of most visible parts on the tile.

I'll look again when the tile is renewed.

BTW UniBremen does that 'glitch' too!

[ChrisReynolds]

I suspect that the PSC thickness comparison does not represent the situation at the end of June but some kind of an average over June. For example, that region around the northern Novaya Zemlya did have a substantial amount of ice in early June this year but was already ice free in early June 2013.

Quite right. The June average (17.6) is higher than the daily figure for 29 June(14.6).

[werther]

So I wouldn't read too much into small differences in the total. They could easily be off by 2500 km^3.

Bruce, regarding from what I've seen through my MODIS lurking and CAD-counting ever since 2006 I've often had the impression since '10 that PIOMAS had at least a margin. On the high side, to be clear. But being an amateur, I don't want to discredit science based work as if I'm the centre of the universe (I'm just a lawnmower...).
It's the trend though, against all other PIOMAS year data, that amazes me.

[Frivolousz21]

Just looking around on MODIS the impacts on the ESS are already swift and quick.

Between winds and heat we are going to see the fast ice shatter the next 2-3 and start to vanish.

[Siffy]

Looks like we have a polynya opening up in the north pole again.

[werther]

After the PIOMAS update I figured it good to start to re-assert my assumptions.

First, I had another look on the NCEP/NCAR mean temps to see if I have been wrong on the notion that mean temps over the whole Arctic Ocean were between ’13 and ’12. And that DMI showed just the mean over 4.3 Mkm2 North of 80dN.
I was wrong:


This is 01 April to 45 July ‘13


This for the same period ’14.

Only the Bering Sea/-Strait, part of Alaska and S. Greenland profited from some warmer weather in this period. The severity of the cold for this period over the CAB (app. DMI +80dN) is striking. It looks most like 2009.

I wonder if, indeed, it is partly a snow cover case. If so, posters like Rob Dekker on the blog may be right. I had the impression that his work was mainly based on the continental snow cover, as Rutgers’ depicts.

But then, If there’s a lot of snow on the boreal parts of the continents, that may well extend over the Arctic Ocean too…