Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2014 Melting Season  (Read 1413983 times)

Bruce

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 132
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2100 on: July 10, 2014, 05:52:59 AM »
I might be even more concerned about the heat whipping up Siberian wildfires, with indirect effects of soot affecting Greenland and multi-year ice elsewhere, for years to come.
We've had continuous fires in northern Canada for weeks now. Why not add Siberia for good measure?

Bruce

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 132
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2101 on: July 10, 2014, 05:59:42 AM »
The Big Crack already more or less extends from the Beaufort to the Atlantic, and it continues to fragment and widen.

Bruce

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 132
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2102 on: July 10, 2014, 06:16:13 AM »
I don't get it. This plot indicates that there is 5 meter thick ice pushed up against the Archipelago, but the MODIS image in my previous post shows it crumbling like dried out cupcake.

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 897
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 74
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2103 on: July 10, 2014, 06:47:45 AM »
Remember the scale of the Arctic.  If you shrank the Arctic down to a lake 3 or 4 km across that 5m ice would be 5 mm thick.  What looks like a tiny floe on MODIS will be 100s of metres or kilometres across.  We've seen semi-permanent ice shelves 10s to 100s of metres thick in both Arctic and Antarctic crumble within days, so no suprise that 5m thick ice may crumble into 'small' pieces given the right conditions.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3192
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 400
  • Likes Given: 200
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2104 on: July 10, 2014, 07:28:31 AM »
The heat *is* torching the Taiga, Tundra, and underlying permafrost, even if it gets stopped short at the shoreline.  It is dumping heat into runoff.  That heat will make it to the arctic. We loose regardless.
This space for Rent.

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2537
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2105 on: July 10, 2014, 09:00:53 AM »
Bruce
There is no more old thick ice there, it may be thick but it is only compacted ice and organized in layers, the layer on the shore is not thick nor old, the last time I saw that, that was on a video with jennifer francis.

15minutes 50s
I remember seeing the layers even better...may be an other video...
Hycom is not precise, it does blur the datas and overestimate the ice...it is normal the purpose is to make sure the boats know what kind of max ice they can encounter.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2014, 11:54:00 AM by Laurent »

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 351
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2106 on: July 10, 2014, 09:12:09 AM »
It really is toasty in Tiksi this week!

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/21824.html

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2107 on: July 10, 2014, 09:31:14 AM »
On Neoguri... The ECMWF charts suggested one or two days ago that the remains of the storm would be steered from the Ochotsk Sea up North over Kolyma-Siberia, along the ridge jutting into the Arctic near Bering Strait.
Like with predecessors in former storm seasons, they play a role in redistribution of tropical heat. This one surely contributes to some real summer heat on the Arctic Ocean shores of Siberia.
But it is not unusual for some days per year to get to 26dC/80dF.
It is always interesting to see if the heat gets to Ostrov Kotelni'y and Wrangel. Then it might really hurt!

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2108 on: July 10, 2014, 10:17:51 AM »
As a statistician (in an unrelated field) it's very interesting watching subject matter experts grapple empirically with a system on the cusp of change. My maths head tells me that when that change comes it will be quite unpredictable from the current data except on very short timescales, and will occur with shocking rapidity. Then we'll try to piece the causal event together. Of course nothing will piece the poor entropic ice pack together.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2014, 10:24:19 AM by 6roucho »

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 871
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 296
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2109 on: July 10, 2014, 12:18:01 PM »
With a major heat pulse over the Russian side of the basin is there not a chance that the heat contrasts will not allow cyclogenisis to occur there producing another big low for late July?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

iceman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2110 on: July 10, 2014, 01:30:01 PM »
Looking warmer than 2013, I'd say:
Inferring from the Climate Reanalyzer forecast, much of that anomalous warm water drifting up along the North Atlantic Current will move into the southern Barents, well away from the ice edge - as happened for most of the 2013 melt season.
2013 had record ice losses on the Atlantic side.
You mean from the contribution of unusually low ice cover in the Greenland Sea?  That's down to low ice export through Fram Strait, not much to do with SST anomalies.

iceman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2111 on: July 10, 2014, 01:37:28 PM »
I don't know how their model comes up with this, as CAPIE has been the highest in the 2005-2014 period for a while now:
Not necessarily inconsistent: Concentration appears to be unusually high, which could have sustained a high (and declining) CAPIE even while melt pond fraction went from low to average.
     I too have some reservations about their model, though: other sources indicate an earlier peak.

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2112 on: July 10, 2014, 01:38:12 PM »
Iceman, hi,

I think Friv aims at the anomalous deep retreat of the sea ice boundary on the whole front Svalbard - Severnaya Zemlya. IIRC it was almost 500 km N of Frantsa Yosefa start September '13.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 637
  • Likes Given: 325
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2113 on: July 10, 2014, 01:43:27 PM »
Bruce,
The "Big Crack" is actually shown on the HYCOM thickness map you show.  It is depicted by a series of red dots (within the black) following parts of the CAA coast.  Very little of the thickest ice is fast ice.  (I think this is a change from a decade ago where there were still ancient ice shelves.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1813
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 517
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2114 on: July 10, 2014, 02:12:48 PM »
Precisely.  The Atlantic side coming this far North is something from what I understand has only been seen in 2012 and 2013.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

iceman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2115 on: July 10, 2014, 02:59:07 PM »
I think Friv aims at the anomalous deep retreat of the sea ice boundary on the whole front Svalbard - Severnaya Zemlya. IIRC it was almost 500 km N of Frantsa Yosefa start September '13.
Werther, yes, the deep incursion north of Frantsa Yosefa in 2013 was impressive.  For the entire sector north of Svalbard - Severnaya Zemlya, though, it looks like 2012 had lower extent at the minimum.


ritter

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 541
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2116 on: July 10, 2014, 06:45:17 PM »
The heat *is* torching the Taiga, Tundra, and underlying permafrost, even if it gets stopped short at the shoreline.  It is dumping heat into runoff.  That heat will make it to the arctic. We loose regardless.

And touching the permafrost liberates co2 and methane. Yes, we lose regardless.

Bruce

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 132
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2117 on: July 10, 2014, 10:25:20 PM »
Remember the scale of the Arctic.  If you shrank the Arctic down to a lake 3 or 4 km across that 5m ice would be 5 mm thick.  What looks like a tiny floe on MODIS will be 100s of metres or kilometres across.  We've seen semi-permanent ice shelves 10s to 100s of metres thick in both Arctic and Antarctic crumble within days, so no suprise that 5m thick ice may crumble into 'small' pieces given the right conditions.
I guess my point was just that if that's the thickest, supposedly strongest ice in the basin, why is it crumbling so easily when the strain could (presumably) be accommodated by thinner, weaker ice to the north? But I guess if the ice is anchored to the CAA on one side, and the CAB is being rotated, a weak zone has to appear somewhere. But this development really puts to lie the idea that all of that thick multi-year ice is a stronghold against the melting. It's not. By the end of the summer it could all have migrated to the Beaufort and Chukchi, and melted. Or shot out the Fram, if the rotation shifts direction. Or both, as will probably be the case.

The whole ice cap is mobile. It doesn't have to move by internal deformation, it can just float wherever the wind and currents push it. I expect that this year or next we'll see the whole cap pull away from Greenland and the CAA leaving open water in between.

We're basically at the point where there will be first and second year ice, and nothing else.

Bruce

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 132
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2118 on: July 10, 2014, 10:33:35 PM »
You wanted fires in Russia, you got them. The Laptev bite is to the left.

These smoke clouds are staggeringly huge. I wonder if all the smoke from these and the Canadian fires will have a cooling effect by blocking incoming sunlight? At least until the fires go out, the particulates settle out, and all that carbon and albedo darkening soot start to work their magic.

(Sorry, forgot the pic.)
« Last Edit: July 11, 2014, 12:11:52 AM by Bruce »

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2119 on: July 10, 2014, 11:28:32 PM »
Quote
The whole ice cap is mobile. It doesn't have to move by internal deformation, it can just float wherever the wind and currents push it.



If the relative size of current flow in this graphic is correct there's a lot of flow through the Nares Straight.  That's right in the middle of where the thickest ice is normally found.  A broken up pack of MYI might head out on that route in larger amounts than via the Fram.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2120 on: July 11, 2014, 12:25:45 AM »
Quote
The whole ice cap is mobile. It doesn't have to move by internal deformation, it can just float wherever the wind and currents push it.



If the relative size of current flow in this graphic is correct there's a lot of flow through the Nares Straight.  That's right in the middle of where the thickest ice is normally found.  A broken up pack of MYI might head out on that route in larger amounts than via the Fram.
True, but... what is that graphic?? :)
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bruce

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 132
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2121 on: July 11, 2014, 12:41:48 AM »
If the relative size of current flow in this graphic is correct there's a lot of flow through the Nares Straight.  That's right in the middle of where the thickest ice is normally found.  A broken up pack of MYI might head out on that route in larger amounts than via the Fram.
Yeah, I've been harping on that point a bit myself. With the ice so fragmented, it offers no resistance to flowing through various straits and into the Atlantic.

That's a great graphic, BTW. It reminds me how important the arctic is as a thermostat, not only for the atmosphere, but also for the oceans. It has a huge influence on keeping the climate stable throughout the year. What happens when that system gets pushed too far and shifts to a new equilibrium? What does that do to the global climate? What if the "equilibrium" happens to be wild oscillations?

It's not smart to run uncontrolled experiments on the very thing upon which you rely for your survival.

johnm33

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1473
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 206
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2122 on: July 11, 2014, 12:46:42 AM »
Lurker, "True, but... what is that graphic?? " look here
 http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/is-global-warming-changing-the-arctic

JMP

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 110
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2123 on: July 11, 2014, 02:04:07 AM »
If the relative size of current flow in this graphic is correct there's a lot of flow through the Nares Straight.  That's right in the middle of where the thickest ice is normally found.  A broken up pack of MYI might head out on that route in larger amounts than via the Fram.
Yeah, I've been harping on that point a bit myself. With the ice so fragmented, it offers no resistance to flowing through various straits and into the Atlantic.

That's a great graphic, BTW. It reminds me how important the arctic is as a thermostat, not only for the atmosphere, but also for the oceans. It has a huge influence on keeping the climate stable throughout the year. What happens when that system gets pushed too far and shifts to a new equilibrium? What does that do to the global climate? What if the "equilibrium" happens to be wild oscillations?

It's not smart to run uncontrolled experiments on the very thing upon which you rely for your survival.

Nares strait is relatively narrow and shallow in spots. This limits the amount of and age of the sea ice that can be exported through.   Yes the Arctic Sea Ice is melting but it probably wont all melt this year. When it does we may then see a few years to follow that do not completely melt out.   There is a great deal of "natural" variability but things are already way out of balance. We do not need to see things worse than they already are. We can imagine many "what if's" but it's best to rely on evidence and for some things we have to wait and see.  Eventually the Northern Hemisphere at least may change to an Equable Climate but that probably will not happen in my lifetime - not before 2070.  http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/index.html




greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2124 on: July 11, 2014, 02:23:47 AM »
We do not need to see things worse than they already are. We can imagine many "what if's" but it's best to rely on evidence and for some things we have to wait and see.  Eventually the Northern Hemisphere at least may change to an Equable Climate but that probably will not happen in my lifetime - not before 2070.
So... Evidence suggests that the current rate of climatic change may be greater than the previous hundreds of millions of years. And how bad it eventually gets likely still depends on how we humans collectively behave now and, say, over the next generation (or two? after which runaway positive feedbacks may have a more than negligible chance of taking it completely out of our tiny hands). But since the most serious consequences may be, say, a human lifetime away, let's just all tra-la-la and be merry? Move along, nothing to see here?

Am I decoding your message correctly?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle
« Last Edit: July 11, 2014, 02:29:06 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2126 on: July 11, 2014, 02:40:20 AM »
Lurker, "True, but... what is that graphic?? " look here
 http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/is-global-warming-changing-the-arctic
So, the layering of ocean currents (as described in the article you link to: cold & fresh Pacific waters lying above and insulating the ice from warm & dense Atlantic waters) seems to be critical. Is this a stable situation (and if so, why?), or a ticking time bomb?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2127 on: July 11, 2014, 02:54:06 AM »

Quote
Nares strait is relatively narrow and shallow in spots. This limits the amount of and age of the sea ice that can be exported through.   Yes the Arctic Sea Ice is melting but it probably wont all melt this year. When it does we may then see a few years to follow that do not completely melt out.   There is a great deal of "natural" variability but things are already way out of balance. We do not need to see things worse than they already are. We can imagine many "what if's" but it's best to rely on evidence and for some things we have to wait and see.  Eventually the Northern Hemisphere at least may change to an Equable Climate but that probably will not happen in my lifetime - not before 2070. 

You read a lot into my comment which I did not write.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2128 on: July 11, 2014, 12:12:24 PM »
Vilkitsky Strait may be open or opening but even if not quite open yet, there is a big crack along the Northern shore.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c05.2014192.terra.250m

nukefix

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 469
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2129 on: July 11, 2014, 12:23:01 PM »
So... Evidence suggests that the current rate of climatic change may be greater than the previous hundreds of millions of years.
Sorry but that is false. The rate of change was orders of magnitude greater during the end-stages of the last ice age.

Dromicosuchus

  • New ice
  • Posts: 48
  • Biophilia
    • View Profile
    • The Songs of Dejerara
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2130 on: July 11, 2014, 12:51:25 PM »
So... Evidence suggests that the current rate of climatic change may be greater than the previous hundreds of millions of years.
Sorry but that is false. The rate of change was orders of magnitude greater during the end-stages of the last ice age.

...Wait, what?  Temperatures are changing more rapidly now than at any other time in both the thermometer and proxy records; the rise over the twentieth century was ~0.8 C per century, while the most rapid temperature change during the last glacial termination only clocked in at (eyeballing, here, from figure 2 of this paper; I know that's not the most reliable means of estimation, but I'll be within an order of magnitude, and that's easily good enough:  http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/files/shakun-et-al.pdf) 1.5 to 2 C per 2,000 years, or 0.075 to 0.1 C per century--a good order of magnitude slower than the current pace.  Are you talking about the rate of sea level rise?  That was faster during the last glacial termination, but the reasons for that (which I'm not entirely clear on myself; different ice sheet dynamics, what with the existence of the low-latitude Laurentide at the time?  A lag in glacial response, that will likely catch up with us very shortly?), whatever they were, were not a similarly rapid climatic response.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2131 on: July 11, 2014, 01:20:39 PM »
Younger_Dryas perhaps

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas

Quote
also referred to as the Big Freeze,[1] was a geologically brief (1,300 ± 70 years) period of cold climatic conditions and drought which occurred between approximately 12,800 and 11,500 years BP.[2]
...
Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period of abrupt climate change has been experienced since.[6]

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2132 on: July 11, 2014, 03:45:42 PM »
For instance: http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/august/climate-change-speed-080113.html

PS. The Science issue referenced in the article is here: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6145.toc

(Anyways, that wasn't my point...)
« Last Edit: July 11, 2014, 03:55:48 PM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

johnm33

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1473
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 206
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2133 on: July 11, 2014, 04:45:05 PM »
greatdying2 
"So, the layering of ocean currents (as described in the article you link to: cold & fresh Pacific waters lying above and insulating the ice from warm & dense Atlantic waters) seems to be critical. Is this a stable situation (and if so, why?), or a ticking time bomb?"
My guess is whilst the ice remains to slow the escape of the fresh meltwater, from Siberian and N, American rivers, which peaks in May-June iirc, then things remain stable, but when a broad enough path exists for those waters to circle the pole and exit through the CAA or Fram things change. With no fresh [er] water to force it down the Atlantic waters would circle the pole and the basal waters held back by the pressure of the Atlantic flow would be released. If you zoom into the area between Svalbard and Greenland there seems to be evidence sccoured into the seafloor of just such an event. Or perhaps there's a better geolojical explanation. http://www.arctic.io/zoom/yDzd/0.5;0.5;1/Bathymetry

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1813
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 517
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2134 on: July 11, 2014, 05:58:26 PM »
The Beaufort region gets hit pretty hard the next few days.

The area to watch the next few days is the Beaufort.

 

The setup is an all out cluster**** until the reverse dipole takes over.

 

For the Canadian Basin it actually means a short term torch/compaction regime.

 

In the first 12 hours of this we can see the ice line already on the move.

From multiple angles.





Three days prior in 2013.





I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

JMP

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 110
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2135 on: July 11, 2014, 09:00:52 PM »
Am I decoding your message correctly?

No. You are not. 

JMP

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 110
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2136 on: July 11, 2014, 09:01:46 PM »
You read a lot into my comment which I did not write.

Well... I wasn’t responding directly to you and maybe I did sorta go off on a tangent there lol   Now, to respond to what you said. 
If the relative size of current flow in this graphic is correct there's a lot of flow through the Nares Straight.  That's right in the middle of where the thickest ice is normally found.  A broken up pack of MYI might head out on that route in larger amounts than via the Fram.

While that graphic may look great at first, the proportions of current flow(s) depicted do seem to be misleading.  Nares strait is extremely unlikely to export more ice than the Fram, multiyear or younger.     In 2007 there was a dramatic increase in export through Nares but that was still only about 10 % of Fram.  It's just too narrow and there is significant ice calving off the glaciers that feed into it which is only likely to increase as the arctic warms.    So... only maybe, would it be possible if/when there is so little ice left that most of what would go out the Fram melts before making it’s way across the top of Greenland.   -The graphic must be a bit off, maybe a lot off. 

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2137 on: July 11, 2014, 09:51:28 PM »
I assume the blue line is proportional to the amount of water flowing through the various outlets.  If the amount flowing through the Nares is roughly the same as through the much wider Fram then the flow (of water) must be fast.

If the thick MYI is breaking into small enough pieces to fit through the Nares it would seem that there would be some major thick ice loss happening right in the middle of the "ice stronghold". 

Smaller pieces of thick ice could cascade through the Nares like pachinko balls in Japanese game parlor.

And looking at today's ARC thickness map it looks as if this is happening.   The last ice holdout could be to the west of Ellesmere




Dromicosuchus

  • New ice
  • Posts: 48
  • Biophilia
    • View Profile
    • The Songs of Dejerara
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2138 on: July 11, 2014, 10:13:47 PM »
Younger_Dryas perhaps

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas

Quote
also referred to as the Big Freeze,[1] was a geologically brief (1,300 ± 70 years) period of cold climatic conditions and drought which occurred between approximately 12,800 and 11,500 years BP.[2]
...
Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period of abrupt climate change has been experienced since.[6]

Ah, mea culpa; I'd forgotten about the Younger Dryas.  Many thanks, Crandles!

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1316
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 574
  • Likes Given: 419
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2139 on: July 11, 2014, 10:16:59 PM »
You read a lot into my comment which I did not write.

Well... I wasn’t responding directly to you and maybe I did sorta go off on a tangent there lol   Now, to respond to what you said. 
If the relative size of current flow in this graphic is correct there's a lot of flow through the Nares Straight.  That's right in the middle of where the thickest ice is normally found.  A broken up pack of MYI might head out on that route in larger amounts than via the Fram.

While that graphic may look great at first, the proportions of current flow(s) depicted do seem to be misleading.  Nares strait is extremely unlikely to export more ice than the Fram, multiyear or younger.     In 2007 there was a dramatic increase in export through Nares but that was still only about 10 % of Fram.  It's just too narrow and there is significant ice calving off the glaciers that feed into it which is only likely to increase as the arctic warms.    So... only maybe, would it be possible if/when there is so little ice left that most of what would go out the Fram melts before making it’s way across the top of Greenland.   -The graphic must be a bit off, maybe a lot off.

I have been reading Egede's Description of Greenland in which he reports the natives as saying that the current was so strong from the North through Nare's Straight that it did not freeze over
A strong current may have no accompanying  ice flow at all ! As Bob Wallace has shown .. things up north are a changin' !
« Last Edit: July 11, 2014, 10:35:42 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2140 on: July 12, 2014, 03:10:06 AM »
I tried to write a thing (which became a diatribe) about how ridiculous my fellow apes tend to be. But then I deleted it. You will figure it out soon enough by yourselves. God's speed. (There is no god.)
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bruce

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 132
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2141 on: July 12, 2014, 03:34:11 AM »
I tried to write a thing (which became a diatribe) about how ridiculous my fellow apes tend to be. But then I deleted it. You will figure it out soon enough by yourselves. God's speed. (There is no god.)
I imagine any number of us here have written that diatribe at one time or another. I had one going on this thread but, like you, deleted it. I like it here -- people are intelligent and knowledgable and the conversations are civilized. If we were to rise to the bait of every passing troll (or participant we perceive as a troll), it wouldn't stay that way for very long.

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2142 on: July 12, 2014, 04:16:37 AM »
MODIS for the past 4 days is showing advanced stages of surface melt reaching into the central Arctic on the Siberian and Chukchi sides, to well over 80 degrees North. Yet it seems the Uni-Bremen concentration map isn't responding. What gives?

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 897
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 74
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2143 on: July 12, 2014, 05:46:01 AM »
http://xkcd.com/1386/

Yes people are stupid....
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2144 on: July 12, 2014, 06:27:31 AM »
I tried to write a thing (which became a diatribe) about how ridiculous my fellow apes tend to be. But then I deleted it. You will figure it out soon enough by yourselves. God's speed. (There is no god.)
I imagine any number of us here have written that diatribe at one time or another. I had one going on this thread but, like you, deleted it. I like it here -- people are intelligent and knowledgable and the conversations are civilized. If we were to rise to the bait of every passing troll (or participant we perceive as a troll), it wouldn't stay that way for very long.
Absolutely. Most people are here because they genuinely care.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2145 on: July 12, 2014, 06:37:57 AM »
Younger_Dryas perhaps

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas

Quote
also referred to as the Big Freeze,[1] was a geologically brief (1,300 ± 70 years) period of cold climatic conditions and drought which occurred between approximately 12,800 and 11,500 years BP.[2]
...
Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period of abrupt climate change has been experienced since.[6]

Ah, mea culpa; I'd forgotten about the Younger Dryas.  Many thanks, Crandles!
Again, *even* the Younger Dryas was likely order(s) of magnitude slower than present changes:
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/august/climate-change-speed-080113.html .
« Last Edit: July 12, 2014, 06:59:48 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2146 on: July 12, 2014, 08:50:35 AM »
MODIS for the past 4 days is showing advanced stages of surface melt reaching into the central Arctic on the Siberian and Chukchi sides, to well over 80 degrees North. Yet it seems the Uni-Bremen concentration map isn't responding. What gives?

Not had the chance to check up on the latest Wipneus data, but CT Area continues to fall at average rates. NSIDC extent has swtiched firmly from large falls to average losses - however that often does in mid July.

The ice is thinning, and NSIDC extent might pick up later in July. CT Area however remains puzzling.

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2537
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2147 on: July 12, 2014, 09:17:47 AM »
The ice is really grinded by this giant gyre...
1) the break up along the canadian coast is going on...
2) the chanels start to open...
3) big opening perpandicular to the coast, many others to come if the gyre continue as it is...
http://1.usa.gov/U7jCU5

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2148 on: July 12, 2014, 01:30:58 PM »
Again, *even* the Younger Dryas was likely order(s) of magnitude slower than present changes:
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/august/climate-change-speed-080113.html .


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
Quote
It has been believed that the transitions each occurred over a period of a decade or so,[7] but the onset may have been faster.[8] Thermally fractionated nitrogen and argon isotope data from Greenland ice core GISP2 indicate that the summit of Greenland was approximately 15 °C (27 °F) colder during the Younger Dryas[7] than today.

15 °C with onset faster than a decade. Of course this ~15 °C is neither global nor reached during onset decade. Probably difficult to compare a likely regional effect with a global effect. Nevertheless it is pretty dramatic.

While I wouldn't claim this is an order of magnitude faster than present changes, I don't think it looks reasonable to claim the onset of 'the Younger Dryas was likely order(s) of magnitude slower than present changes' 

If you set up your definitions appropriately to downplay regional effects over short periods of less than 100 years and concentrate on global effects then it may be possible to claim

Quote
Climate change on pace to occur 10 times faster than any change recorded in past 65 million years 

or by changing the definitions and weightings, to claim

Quote
Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period [Yonger Dryas] of abrupt climate change has been experienced since.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2149 on: July 12, 2014, 05:47:39 PM »
If you set up your definitions appropriately to downplay regional effects over short periods of less than 100 years and concentrate on global effects then it may be possible to claim

Quote
Climate change on pace to occur 10 times faster than any change recorded in past 65 million years 

or by changing the definitions and weightings, to claim

Quote
Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period [Yonger Dryas] of abrupt climate change has been experienced since.

Fair enough. Globally at least, man-made climate change is set to become faster than at any time since a comet wiped out the dinosaurs.


Quote
Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6145/486.abstract



Quote
Fig. 1 Observed and projected changes in annual temperature and precipitation.
(Top) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observations (which are available only over land), calculated as 1986–2005 minus 1956–1975. (Middle) Differences in the mid-21st-century period of the CMIP5 RCP8.5 ensemble, calculated as 2046–2065 minus 1986–2005. (Bottom) Differences in the late-21st-century period of the CMIP5 RCP8.5 ensemble, calculated as 2081–2100 minus 1986–2005. We show the multi-model mean, using the model aggregation of Diffenbaugh and Giorgi (65). This presentation does not indicate significant differences from background variability, nor does it reflect many other potentially important sources of uncertainty, including level of emissions, Earth system feedbacks, or model structure. The values at the left and right extremes of the color bars give the minimum and maximum values (respectively) that occur across all of the periods. The minimum temperature, minimum precipitation, and maximum precipitation extreme changes are all in the CRU observations. Further details are provided in the supplementary materials.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6145/486.figures-only
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.