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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2250 on: July 18, 2014, 04:34:15 PM »
Holy cow - has the Russian forest fire thing ever been this bad? 

deep octopus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2251 on: July 18, 2014, 04:41:13 PM »
2012 was observed to be perhaps the worst year in the last decade, according to NASA.
Quote
The summer of 2012 has proven to be the most severe wildfire season Russia has faced in a decade. Unlike 2010, when severe fires raged in western Russia, most of the fires in 2012 have burned through taiga in remote parts of eastern and central Siberia.

...

More than 17,000 wildfires had burned more than 30 million hectares (74 million acres) through August 2012, according to researchers at the Sukachev Institute of Forest in the Russian Academy of Sciences. In comparison, 20 million hectares burned last year [2011], which was roughly the average between 2000 and 2008, according to an analysis of MODIS data published in 2010.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79161

Since it's still mid-July, I'd estimate we'd have to wait until at least the end of September to get a clue as to how bad this year sits with the pack. But it looks like it's going to be one of the worst.

And now, Worldview shows the soot drifting to the northeast, likely hovering over the ESS and Laptev.

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2252 on: July 18, 2014, 04:48:24 PM »
Take a look at the graph.  Who could have accurately predicted that 2012 would end up as the lowest, 2007 the next and 2011 the third lowest this early in the year.  Even at the first of August there's no clear leader.  2007 didn't split off until mid September.

Big storm, unusually hot weather and we could have a new low.  But that's weather and weather isn't predictable that far out.


Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2253 on: July 18, 2014, 04:54:46 PM »
And look at each region's extent.  2014 has led 2012 melting in about as many regions as it has trailed. 

It all comes down to Central Basin melting.  And that season has just now opened.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2254 on: July 18, 2014, 08:40:11 PM »
Just my opinion, but I think there were some very important differences around this time 2012 compared to now.

2012 had a clearly defined high pressure area around the general NAO region during the summer, coupled with low pressure stretching from Western Canada/Alaska along the Eurasian coastline and into the Barents sea.

SLP anomaly, May 1st to Jul 16th


This strong pressure gradients created a surface wind pattern that pulled warm air up through the Baffin sea, into the CAA, into the Beaufort sea and then the central Arctic. It also created a strong flow out through Fram



Resulting in some very mild conditions across the Arctic.
[/img]

Which brought with it, anomalously warm SSTs, lower concentration in Across much of the Arctic, and a more rapid summer decline on PIOMAS. All of which, suggested that the Arctic was primed for continued large losses and had a high probability of setting some record lows
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b017616798c0f970c-350wi
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/data/201207/WNDSI20120717IC0.png
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png

This year, however, we've had no strong high and low pressure regions, just a relatively weak HP over Barents toward Greenland.



Meaning no strong pressure gradient to drive surface warmth north into the Arctic, and no push to send extra ice out through Fram


And thus relatively cool temperatures


Resulting in a slow down in volume loss, higher concentration across central parts, closer to average SSTs through the Arctic (though still generally above average) and in my opinion, a much lower chance of a record low September minimum, unless something dramatic happens in August.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png
http://i.imgur.com/uLTFgef.png
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/data/201407/AM2SI20140717IC0.png

Given the situation this year, we'd need some very strong melt conditions in August to challenge record low, whereas 2012, the incredibly warm SSTs we're going to help the melt along into August, the low concentration meant that the continued melt would be felt in both coverage measures, not just volume, and the high rate of export from Fram melt we were losing some of the most resilient ice in the Arctic too.

All in all, I think it was clear that the Arctic was in a bad way this time 2012
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Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2255 on: July 18, 2014, 08:53:10 PM »
Looking at the archive MODIS pictures there is no comparison between 2014 and 2012 - and little comparison even with 2013.  Last year had some very loose/fragmented parts at high latitudes near the Pole: there's nothing like that this year.  I would not be surprised to come in above 2013 at this point.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2256 on: July 18, 2014, 09:15:05 PM »
Re. Russian fires. Are they experiencing anything comparable to our pine beetle problem?
Terry

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2257 on: July 18, 2014, 09:20:35 PM »
Looking at the archive MODIS pictures there is no comparison between 2014 and 2012 - and little comparison even with 2013.  Last year had some very loose/fragmented parts at high latitudes near the Pole: there's nothing like that this year.  I would not be surprised to come in above 2013 at this point.
It is fragmented, Peter, just more concentrated. The lack of wind and transport seems to me what is saving the ice, not lower temperatures.

I agree that if we continue with the low pressure gradients, it will help save the ice this year.  The heat necessary to destroy the ice is there, in multiple forms, both above and below it. 

Weather is the key that will keep it locked away from the ice.

Eventually the imported heat in the basin at depth will overwhelm the thermo and haloclines. Weather will then no longer be able to hold back the heat.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2258 on: July 18, 2014, 09:25:18 PM »
Re. Russian fires. Are they experiencing anything comparable to our pine beetle problem?
Terry
Russian fire, not so sure, and not really sure it is a factor. Conditions in the NWT ( which doesn't get much precip anyway) are extraordinarily dry, and hot.  Things have simply dried out, leaving the peat layer (2+meters) vulnerable over most of the region.  Pick your spot; all you need is a spark, or a camp fire that leaves some coals hidden where they can ignite the peat.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2259 on: July 18, 2014, 09:38:22 PM »
Looking at the archive MODIS pictures there is no comparison between 2014 and 2012 - and little comparison even with 2013.  Last year had some very loose/fragmented parts at high latitudes near the Pole: there's nothing like that this year.  I would not be surprised to come in above 2013 at this point.
It is fragmented, Peter, just more concentrated. The lack of wind and transport seems to me what is saving the ice, not lower temperatures.

I agree that if we continue with the low pressure gradients, it will help save the ice this year.  The heat necessary to destroy the ice is there, in multiple forms, both above and below it. 

Weather is the key that will keep it locked away from the ice.

Eventually the imported heat in the basin at depth will overwhelm the thermo and haloclines. Weather will then no longer be able to hold back the heat.


1.  Arco is trash, never use it.  never.  The ice in the Canadian basin is upwards of 2M thinner than arco says it is.

2. The weather is very favorable for ice retention at large.  Like 2013 saw from July 22nd to the end.

3.  However the Pacific side is thinner, whether this shows up on 2D analysis or not it's fact.  There is an area in the Northern Chuchki where a buoy shows rapid bottom melt with 100% concentration.  It is now under 1M thick.  It will melt out regardless of weather.

4.  It is taking favorable weather to barely hold on to a mix of 2010/2009 volume and 2D specs of the ice.  That is not good at all. We are going to get a predominant warm dipole in 2015, 2016 at some point it will happen.

5.  You are right.  2014 has seen DRAMATICALLY more heat being injected into the ice from the sides and beneath than 2013 saw.  Gotta keep that in mind.

6.  There is still 40-50 days left.  Even if we finish July with a PV it will take a PV + +NAO for all of August to grind 2014 down to the halt that 2013 had.  If that is even possible with the weaker Pacific ice which is far larger in area in a 2D sense than the Nansen Basin that 2013 opened up.

7.  The Atlantic ice at least from a 2D perspective is starting to look salty. lol, salty in the American slang sense. 
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2260 on: July 18, 2014, 10:51:14 PM »
The Foxe Basin and SW part of the Canadian Arpichelago is falling apart now.

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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2261 on: July 18, 2014, 11:16:27 PM »
The Foxe Basin and SW part of the Canadian Arpichelago is falling apart now.
No surprise there at all considering the heat and precipitation of the last few days.

Looks like rain and temps consistently close to 10C for most of the week over most of Nunavit, and particularly the NWP.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 11:23:31 PM by jdallen »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2262 on: July 18, 2014, 11:33:59 PM »
Yeah the models show pretty much warmth to continue over the CA for the forseable future.

Probably going to be a solid chance to melt well past 2013 there this year.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2263 on: July 19, 2014, 07:31:16 AM »
While the arctic is protected GIS gets smashed this week bad.

Jaxa only dropped -28K.  The slowdown has arrived.

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anthropocene

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2264 on: July 19, 2014, 10:02:05 AM »
To Friv,

   Can you please provide scientific definitions of 'smashed', 'torched' etc and other terms used regularly in your posts. I've looked in the glossary section in the ASIF and can't see any entries for these terms. Also, can you please provide a summary of the accuracy of the previous predictions made versus what actually happened.

Thanks
Anthropocene

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2265 on: July 19, 2014, 10:09:50 AM »
To Friv,

   Can you please provide scientific definitions of 'smashed', 'torched' etc and other terms used regularly in your posts. I've looked in the glossary section in the ASIF and can't see any entries for these terms. Also, can you please provide a summary of the accuracy of the previous predictions made versus what actually happened.

Thanks
Anthropocene
I think I may be able to field this one and save Friv a bit of typing.

I think in this case "GIS gets smashed" correlates to the fact they are predicting what looks like  temperatures reaching the low teens, which translates into melt across 100% of the GIS. Rather not a "Normal" event, and if it happens, worthy of the hyperbole.

That further translates into an awful lot of "warm" melt escaping out from under the sheet; mostly into the Greenland Sea and Baffin, but some non-trivial amount will go north, with requisite impact on the sea ice.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2266 on: July 19, 2014, 01:17:31 PM »
Jaxa only dropped -28K.  The slowdown has arrived.
I wouldn't say so much "has arrived" but rather "has extended". For the first 18 days of July, 2014 has seen one of the lowest average daily drops in recent years. Some comparisons over the past eight seasons:

2014: -83,794 km2
2013: -118,438
2012: -96,562
2011: -112,958
2010: -59,094
2009: -96,300
2008: -84,669
2007: -112,952

So even though yesterday's loss of less than 28k is the smallest decrease recorded since early June, SIE has already been on a pretty shallow trajectory this entire month to date (though, of course, nothing like that seen in 2010).


pikaia

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2267 on: July 19, 2014, 01:25:16 PM »
2013 had the fastest decline over the time period, but we still ended the melt season with a lot of ice.

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2268 on: July 19, 2014, 01:50:48 PM »
I think in this case "GIS gets smashed" correlates to the fact they are predicting what looks like  temperatures reaching the low teens, which translates into melt across 100% of the GIS. Rather not a "Normal" event, and if it happens, worthy of the hyperbole.
Except that they're not showing the GIS temperature, they're showing the notional sea level temperature for the region.  The Greenland ice cap is miles high, meaning that the surface is always much colder than that map indicates.  As of 3 hours ago it was -21C at the summit (daily max was about 5-8 degrees higher).  It's forecast to get all the way up to -6 on the afternoon of the 25th.
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/GL/Summit.html

Greenland melt has been slightly above normal this year so far, but well within the bounds of normal variability.
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2269 on: July 19, 2014, 02:29:56 PM »
To Friv,

   Can you please provide scientific definitions of 'smashed', 'torched' etc and other terms used regularly in your posts. I've looked in the glossary section in the ASIF and can't see any entries for these terms. Also, can you please provide a summary of the accuracy of the previous predictions made versus what actually happened.

Thanks
Anthropocene


Could you provide something useful, thanks
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2270 on: July 19, 2014, 02:32:02 PM »
I think in this case "GIS gets smashed" correlates to the fact they are predicting what looks like  temperatures reaching the low teens, which translates into melt across 100% of the GIS. Rather not a "Normal" event, and if it happens, worthy of the hyperbole.
Except that they're not showing the GIS temperature, they're showing the notional sea level temperature for the region.  The Greenland ice cap is miles high, meaning that the surface is always much colder than that map indicates.  As of 3 hours ago it was -21C at the summit (daily max was about 5-8 degrees higher).  It's forecast to get all the way up to -6 on the afternoon of the 25th.
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/GL/Summit.html

Greenland melt has been slightly above normal this year so far, but well within the bounds of normal variability.
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/


The animation I posted is temps at 1500M not sea level

90%+ of the ice lost to surface melt is below 1500M.

Therefore the graphic is very useful.

Good try tho!!!
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2271 on: July 19, 2014, 02:43:41 PM »
To Friv,

   Can you please provide scientific definitions of 'smashed', 'torched' etc and other terms used regularly in your posts. I've looked in the glossary section in the ASIF and can't see any entries for these terms. Also, can you please provide a summary of the accuracy of the previous predictions made versus what actually happened.

Thanks
Anthropocene
I think I may be able to field this one and save Friv a bit of typing.

I think in this case "GIS gets smashed" correlates to the fact they are predicting what looks like  temperatures reaching the low teens, which translates into melt across 100% of the GIS. Rather not a "Normal" event, and if it happens, worthy of the hyperlinks us from
That further translates into an awful lot of "warm" melt escaping out from under the sheet; mostly into the Greenland Sea and Baffin, but some non-trivial amount will go north, with requisite impact on the sea ice.

The temps are 850mb or 5000ft or 1500m.  I should have been more detailed then I was in my post.  850mb temps are standard practice in tracking gis ice mass loss because almost all ice loss is from areas below 1500M.

I also didn't take in effect that not everyone hear has the his topography essentially memorized.

Never the less it shows a big pummeling.  Periods of intense warm air advection from the SE/E and from the W/SW while an anti cyclone sits on GIS.  Both areas of WAA come off abnormally warm SSTS.

The Northern 1/3 , the SE part, and all of the Western and SW parts get blasted with bouts of intense wind advection warmth combined with solar.


If GFS is right gis melt area will easily cross 50% for a few days.  A couple times the gfs brings mid level temps above freezing upwards of 3500M+ over the summit which is around 3200M IIRC.


You can call it annialation, epic, near historic, whatever you want.

When you combine solar, albedo, and temperature only a handful if times at most which would be in 2011 or 2012 equaled or toppeied the heat wave incoming on his nowadays x
That is fact not fiction.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2272 on: July 19, 2014, 02:50:13 PM »
Peter Ellis,

As of All of June albedo was 3rd lowest on record.  Far more goes into gis ice loss then melt area. 

Secondly, as I already stated pretty much any melting above 1500M is more about albedo lowering then Ice loss.

Thirdly, even  barely above normal as you put it we have seen less than 10 days below normal with roughly 37 above.  Marking a ratio of around 4-1 for above normal.

Fourthly, even the below normal days are barely below normal. 


There is no way to spin this.

I suggest you start reading Jason Box
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2273 on: July 19, 2014, 03:02:26 PM »
Peter Ellis,

As of All of June albedo was 3rd lowest on record.  Far more goes into gis ice loss then melt area. 

Secondly, as I already stated pretty much any melting above 1500M is more about albedo lowering then Ice loss.

Thirdly, even  barely above normal as you put it we have seen less than 10 days below normal with roughly 37 above.  Marking a ratio of around 4-1 for above normal.

Fourthly, even the below normal days are barely below normal. 


There is no way to spin this.

I suggest you start reading Jason Box

850hPa is at a variable height, depending on numerous things but in general, it's higher over high pressure and lower over low pressure.

If you explained your posts clearly, perhaps explaining what your charts show, gave examples of previous large melts that had similar conditions, etc, there might be less ambiguity and thus less questions about the meaning of your posts.

Apart from all that, there is a thread for the Greenland melt season, so perhaps best to keep discussion about Greenland there?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2274 on: July 19, 2014, 03:08:19 PM »
Take a look at the graph.  Who could have accurately predicted that 2012 would end up as the lowest, 2007 the next and 2011 the third lowest this early in the year.  Even at the first of August there's no clear leader.  2007 didn't split off until mid September.

Big storm, unusually hot weather and we could have a new low.  But that's weather and weather isn't predictable that far out.



I agree that, if we look at SIE, we cannot rule out even a new record low. But we should actually look at SIA and mass before we reach a conclusion and SIA is lagging dramatically. The current compaction of the CAB is limiting ice loss except around the perimeter. Unless we start seeing the ice disperse more, I believe the slower pace of loss will persist and a new record is unreachable.

One thing that has struck me this melt season is the remarkable low energy or torpor that has persisted. No strong lows or highs to drive the winds needed for the ice to be dispersed and a more rapid melt to take hold. We, instead, have had weak lows nibbling at the ice edge and weak highs as well.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2275 on: July 19, 2014, 03:12:26 PM »
How variable 50M?  What is a better way to track GIS ice mass loss.

The usual suspects are out always downplaying events in the arctic. I don't lie so you either believe the GFS shows something else and my interpretations are wrong or you are intentionally downplaying events in the cryosphere or you are trying to be contrarian to me because you don't like me.

So what about my assessment is wrong?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2276 on: July 19, 2014, 03:15:35 PM »
It's hard for me to believe folks in this thread would be upset by a single post about a pending GIS melt event that is easily in the top 10 worst in modern human history and potentially top 5.


It is my understanding that the good folks of this forum are here because of such matters whether it's gis, ghgs, snow, or sea ice.

I don't see any bornfromthevoid posts telling the folks having the two page long off topic discussion to take it somewhere else.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2277 on: July 19, 2014, 03:21:28 PM »
How variable 50M?  What is a better way to track GIS ice mass loss.

The usual suspects are out always downplaying events in the arctic. I don't lie so you either believe the GFS shows something else and my interpretations are wrong or you are intentionally downplaying events in the cryosphere or you are trying to be contrarian to me because you don't like me.

So what about my assessment is wrong?

Is this a response to me? What am I downplaying? All I'm suggesting that that you explain your posts more so there's less ambiguity about what you mean. Also, this isn't the Greenland thread. No need to get so defensive.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2278 on: July 19, 2014, 03:25:46 PM »
Take a look at the graph.  Who could have accurately predicted that 2012 would end up as the lowest, 2007 the next and 2011 the third lowest this early in the year.  Even at the first of August there's no clear leader.  2007 didn't split off until mid September.

Big storm, unusually hot weather and we could have a new low.  But that's weather and weather isn't predictable that far out.



I agree that, if we look at SIE, we cannot rule out even a new record low. But we should actually look at SIA and mass before we reach a conclusion and SIA is lagging dramatically. The current compaction of the CAB is limiting ice loss except around the perimeter. Unless we start seeing the ice disperse more, I believe the slower pace of loss will persist and a new record is unreachable.

One thing that has struck me this melt season is the remarkable low energy or torpor that has persisted. No strong lows or highs to drive the winds needed for the ice to be dispersed and a more rapid melt to take hold. We, instead, have had weak lows nibbling at the ice edge and weak highs as well.

Good observation.

Most of the ice North of 78N has been well protected outside of the Laptev region.

However the ice in the CA, Southern Canadian Basin and North of parts of Gis have been taking it pretty good lately.  But the large majority of inner core ice has been well protected.

I doubt we go below 3.3 mil in area, 4.5 mil in extent or 5000Km3 in volume without a big pattern change in the NPAC.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2279 on: July 19, 2014, 03:26:53 PM »
How variable 50M?  What is a better way to track GIS ice mass loss.

The usual suspects are out always downplaying events in the arctic. I don't lie so you either believe the GFS shows something else and my interpretations are wrong or you are intentionally downplaying events in the cryosphere or you are trying to be contrarian to me because you don't like me.

So what about my assessment is wrong?

Is this a response to me? What am I downplaying? All I'm suggesting that that you explain your posts more so there's less ambiguity about what you mean. Also, this isn't the Greenland thread. No need to get so defensive.

Ok
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my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2280 on: July 19, 2014, 03:34:55 PM »
I think SH hit it on the head. There's been a dearth of advection this season due to weak gradients. Without that, turbulent mixing lessens and allows the ice-induced low-level temperature inversion to persist.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2281 on: July 19, 2014, 03:48:17 PM »
Bottom melt at least in the Northern Chuchki is taking off even with cold mid level air around.

That high concentration in many areas is highly deceiving.


Quote
Current Buoy Data (07/19/2014):

Pos: 75.02 N, 171.05 W

Air Temp: -0.15 C
Air Pres: 995.73 mb

Current Ice Observations (07/19/2014)

Snow depth : 0 cm
Ice thickness : 93 cm

Since Deployment (03/26/2014)

Snow depth at melt onset: 10 cm
Snow melt: 9 cm (Began 06/05/2014)
Ice surface melt: 34 cm (Began 06/25/2014)

Ice bottom melt : 35 cm (Began 05/19/2014)
Ice bottom growth : 13 cm




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2282 on: July 19, 2014, 03:52:30 PM »
It's hard for me to believe folks in this thread would be upset by a single post about a pending GIS melt event that is easily in the top 10 worst in modern human history and potentially top 5.


It is my understanding that the good folks of this forum are here because of such matters whether it's gis, ghgs, snow, or sea ice.

I don't see any bornfromthevoid posts telling the folks having the two page long off topic discussion to take it somewhere else.

I always read your posts and use them as a way of focusing my attention on the coming week to watch as events play out and I do think that comments regarding GIS melt belong on this thread as it is part of the "2014 Melting Season".

I don't believe you should take responses to your posts so personally nor question regular posters regarding their responses. It is counter productive.

While the forecast temps do suggest a dramatic GIS melt may set in this week and my attention will be drawn to this as a result of your post (I appreciate your posts for this reason.), it is this phrase "a pending GIS melt event that is easily in the top 10 worst in modern human history and potentially top 5" that I believe is the problem. To describe a melt that has not yet occurred as "the top 10 worst in modern human history" is getting ahead of the actual event.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2014, 04:04:12 PM by Shared Humanity »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2283 on: July 19, 2014, 04:02:45 PM »
It's hard for me to believe folks in this thread would be upset by a single post about a pending GIS melt event that is easily in the top 10 worst in modern human history and potentially top 5.


It is my understanding that the good folks of this forum are here because of such matters whether it's gis, ghgs, snow, or sea ice.

I don't see any bornfromthevoid posts telling the folks having the two page long off topic discussion to take it somewhere else.

I always read your posts and use them as a way of focusing my attention on the coming week to watch as events play out and I do think that comments regarding GIS melt belong on this thread as it is part of the "2014 Melting Season".

I don't believe you should take responses to your posts so personally nor question regular posters regarding their responses. It is counter productive.

While the forecast temps do suggest a dramatic GIS melt may set in this week and my attention will be drawn to this as a result of your post (I appreciate your posts for this reason.), it is this phrase "a pending GIS melt event that is easily in the top 10 worst in modern human history and potentially top 5" that I believe is the problem. To describe a melt that has not yet  occurred as "the top 10 worst in modern human history" is getting ahead of the actual event.

I suppose you are right.  I thought pending clarified that it hasn't happened nor is it guaranteed to happen. 

I am not trying to be in conflict but how else is one supposed to describe the level of the potential event?  If we are talking about weather in the United States.  No matter what event is forthcoming everyone from private met offices, noaa, tv stations will use the same description of a top 10 or top 5 worst, highest, lowest, whatever event in recorded history without fail every time.

I do not understand why this is seen as wrong when it is totally applicable to climate events as well on the weather time scale such as this one.

Quote
pend·ing
ˈpendiNG/
adjective
adjective: pending

    1.
    awaiting decision or settlement.
    "nine cases were still pending"
    synonyms:   unresolved, undecided, unsettled, awaiting decision/action, undetermined, open, hanging fire, (up) in the air, on ice, ongoing, outstanding, not done, unfinished, incomplete; More
    informalon the back burner
    "nine cases were still pending"
        about to happen; imminent.
        "with a presidential election pending, it would be wrong to force the changes through now"
        synonyms:   imminent, impending, about to happen, forthcoming, upcoming, on the way, coming, approaching, looming, gathering, near, nearing, close, close at hand, in the offing, to come More
        "with a general election pending"

preposition

The sad reality of AGW is that we will most likely see very little if any years, seasonal, or short term events like the one coming to GIS now that are not top 10 "worst" because of the progressional nature of this disease our planet is suffering from.

I understand on the surface it may sound like hyperbole but it's sadly far from it.

If we compiled a list of the top 20 ten day melt periods on GIS.  They would almost all come from 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014.

« Last Edit: July 19, 2014, 04:11:25 PM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2284 on: July 19, 2014, 04:17:24 PM »
Peter Ellis,

As of All of June albedo was 3rd lowest on record.  Far more goes into gis ice loss then melt area. 

Secondly, as I already stated pretty much any melting above 1500M is more about albedo lowering then Ice loss.

Thirdly, even  barely above normal as you put it we have seen less than 10 days below normal with roughly 37 above.  Marking a ratio of around 4-1 for above normal.

Fourthly, even the below normal days are barely below normal. 


There is no way to spin this.

I suggest you start reading Jason Box

... as is nicely illustrated here:

The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2285 on: July 19, 2014, 04:39:56 PM »
I have only been visiting this site since 2012 and enjoyed watching that melt season unfold and analyzed by posters here. I have learned a lot as I have visited. I come here daily now.

As I have watched this melt season, the quiet Arctic weather has kept me riveted and many have posted on ASIF describing this.

This Arctic wind image was posted by Laurent above and I cannot recall seeing anything like this in the previous 2 melt seasons. It has not been an isolated occurrence. These types of weak wind fields have occurred frequently. I have also posted a cloud image of the Canadien side of the CAB that can be found here....

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,35.100.html#lastPost

It is disorganized as described and a direct result of weak winds that predominate. I also watched with fascination several weeks ago as a small cyclone wandered across the CAB from the Canadian side to the Russian side. A persistent small cyclone like this (It lasted for days.) could only occur in a low wind environment. High winds would have had a shearing effect and the cyclone would have been short lived. I believe the persistent weak lows that have circled the perimeter of the CAB might owe their existence, in part, to these low wind fields as well. Perhaps they contribute to it or they may mutually reinforce themselves as low winds allow for weak lows to persist which in turn reinforce the low winds. What effect does the Polar jet stream have as well?

What really intrigues me is, given this widespread torpor in the weather during this melt season, what is happening to all of the energy that is entering the Arctic? It is not being released by the weak weather but is, in fact, being stored. And where does this energy get stored? Is it collecting in deeper waters? What about the existing ice? Could the ice be in a state that is a higher temperature generally and, if so. would this ice be structurally weaker? It's as if we are packing explosives in a barrel but refusing to light the fuse. There is still plenty of time left in the melt season to light this fuse and that would be fascinating to watch. But what if the fuse is not lit this year? What impact would all of this stored energy have on the 2015 melt season?
« Last Edit: July 19, 2014, 04:53:34 PM by Shared Humanity »

notjonathon

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2286 on: July 19, 2014, 05:12:15 PM »
As a long-term lurker, I'd like to tell Friv that his posts are uniformly entertaining even when he resorts to hyperbole. All of us are here because this phenomenon of the melting Arctic has us transfixed. It fascinates us, perhaps in the way that watching an inevitable wreck unfold fascinates us, and we can't turn our eyes away. It's just that the action is in such extreme slow motion that the tension sometimes gets the best of us--so cut him some slack, please.

And keep on truckin', Friv.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2287 on: July 19, 2014, 05:22:33 PM »
I have only been visiting this site since 2012 and enjoyed watching that melt season unfold and analyzed by posters here. I have learned a lot as I have visited. I come here daily now.

As I have watched this melt season, the quiet Arctic weather has kept me riveted and many have posted on ASIF describing this.

This Arctic wind image was posted by Laurent above and I cannot recall seeing anything like this in the previous 2 melt seasons. It has not been an isolated occurrence. These types of weak wind fields have occurred frequently. I have also posted a cloud image of the Canadien side of the CAB that can be found here....

It is disorganized as described and a direct result of weak winds that predominate. I also watched with fascination several weeks ago as a small cyclone wandered across the CAB from the Canadian side to the Russian side. A persistent small cyclone like this (It lasted for days.) could only occur in a low wind environment. High winds would have had a shearing effect and the cyclone would have been short lived. I believe the persistent weak lows that have circled the perimeter of the CAB might owe their existence, in part, to these low wind fields as well. Perhaps they contribute to it or they may mutually reinforce themselves as low winds allow for weak lows to persist which in turn reinforce the low winds. What effect does the Polar jet stream have as well?

What really intrigues me is, given this widespread torpor in the weather during this melt season, what is happening to all of the energy that is entering the Arctic? It is not being released by the weak weather but is, in fact, being stored. And where does this energy get stored? Is it collecting in deeper waters? What about the existing ice? Could the ice be in a state that is a higher temperature generally and, if so. would this ice be structurally weaker? It's as if we are packing explosives in a barrel but refusing to light the fuse. There is still plenty of time left in the melt season to light this fuse and that would be fascinating to watch. But what if the fuse is not lit this year? What impact would all of this stored energy have on the 2015 melt season?


How much do you think is going into melting Permafrost?

It does look like a lot is going into the NH upper latitude waters.



but while the arctic basin is "relatively" cool this summer.  Many large swaths where permafrost resides are getting baked.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2288 on: July 19, 2014, 06:20:59 PM »
To Friv,

   Can you please provide scientific definitions of 'smashed', 'torched' etc and other terms used regularly in your posts. I've looked in the glossary section in the ASIF and can't see any entries for these terms. Also, can you please provide a summary of the accuracy of the previous predictions made versus what actually happened.

Thanks
Anthropocene


Could you provide something useful, thanks

lol two thumbs up friv
Antropocene, peer-reviewing not required to publish here

RaenorShine

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2289 on: July 19, 2014, 06:56:33 PM »
The sad reality of AGW is that we will most likely see very little if any years, seasonal, or short term events like the one coming to GIS now that are not top 10 "worst" because of the progressional nature of this disease our planet is suffering from.

I understand on the surface it may sound like hyperbole but it's sadly far from it.

If we compiled a list of the top 20 ten day melt periods on GIS.  They would almost all come from 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014.

Well put Friv.  This year is above the average in Greenland for both melt area and surface mass balance loss, but with below average temperatures. This should be a below average year for melt as they have been closely linked in the past, but it isn't.

What's changed? Decreasing albedo, decreasing height of the sheet in the south (small at the moment, but will play an increasing role), and drought in the north west. On the plus side there is more precipitation in the south east offsetting some but not all of the mass loss.  As the planet warms it is not going to get better, but become significantly worse.

SteveMDFP

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2290 on: July 19, 2014, 07:00:54 PM »
....


How much do you think is going into melting Permafrost?

It does look like a lot is going into the NH upper latitude waters.
...
but while the arctic basin is "relatively" cool this summer.  Many large swaths where permafrost resides are getting baked.
 
Quite so.  Some of us have our eyes (brains?) glaze over here with all the numbers and stats here.  Some of us struggle to see big pictures instead.  Like, "how is the new normal for the arctic changing from the old normal?"

It seems to me that part of the new normal may be a tendency towards what whe've called "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" (WACCy weather) during the fall and winter, and now, perhaps "Cold Arctic, Warm Continents" (CAWCy weather) is the new normal for summer.

The region seems to be going all WACCy-CAWCy on us.

Xulonn

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2291 on: July 19, 2014, 07:25:20 PM »
I am primarily a lurker who visits this site at least once per day.  I agree that Friv's hyperbole often seems a bit silly and entertaining, but there is always useful and interesting information in his posts.  Your enthusiasm and willingness, Friv, to do lots of internet research, is obvious and appreciated.

I get the impression from several commenters here that there is little consideration in the hard science given to the "condition" of the ice.  However, there is a fair amount of speculation about that aspect of potential major melting here. 

It seems to me that a serious episode of cyclonic or regular wind could mix the "slush" with water and accelerate melt very quickly to high levels, and/or push ice south through the various straits and melt it. 

However, if the winds remain light for the next two months, the "slush" - which accounts for area and extent just as much as harder, thicker ice - could simply harden into winter ice and thicken some starting in September.

I think some of you share my sentiment that I would be very happy if Arctic sea ice began to grow in extent, area and volume annually, but I think that is extremely unlikely. 

AGW/CC denialists will have another field day this year if area and extent remain relatively high through the and of the melt season, and grow a bit more next winter.  If that happens, and we will spend another year fending off their b.s., and that is not fun. 

Friv, what's your take on "torching" (temps) vs. wind and storms, and the relationship of the two in determining major melt episodes?  Have you (or anyone else) seen any data quantifying any aspects of that relationship? 

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2292 on: July 19, 2014, 11:09:28 PM »
Winds and Storms are a lot harder to quantify from an impact standpoint.  I am not the guy to ask about them.  There are posters here far more knowledgeable about wind impacts topically speaking and wind impacts from ekman pumping. 

Temperature is usually straightforward.  2013 behaved accordingly with cooler, cloudy temps via =NAO, cyclonic nature of the summer.

2009 and 2014 have behaved differently.  2009 behaved even more radically off from what you would expect.

2009 had a classic elongated dipole anomaly SLP mean for the summer.  Meaning a predominant wind flow from the Pacific to Atlantic.  Why was it cooler then other years with a favorable wind and pressure field. 

2014 has also seen a mostly classic dipole high pressure but a bit more over the basin.  While I can't speak on behalf of 2009 this year we have seen far less solar than you would expect with this pressure pattern.  All those foggy days.  We know snow was probably a factor this year.  Is snow the key to tempering the high pressure pattern? 

Neither of these had the kara low for the most part and the Laptev low and in 2014 it's been pushed back until the recent pattern shift to a more 2013 like weather pattern.






Here is 2013 so far and the 2nd image is 2013 the rest of the way.  Very clear cut reasons for 2013 to have a nice rebound off the record lows.  Not so clear cut this season or in 2009.




I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2293 on: July 19, 2014, 11:34:37 PM »
This is going to be my last post here about GIS.  There is a gis thread in the Greenland section.  I wouldn't be posting this but it's to crazy and sickly awesome not too.

Yeah look at that smoke folks being pulled into GIS off the incredible Canada wildfires.

The worst part is the dark melt layer is already exposed this will accumulate soot right on top of it as well as other snow(wet) or snow(dry) parts of GIS.






Not pictured is the ridging/high pressure = lots of sun as well. 




I high recommend for those who are interested.  My handle is The_Global_Warmer on americanwx.com  I changed it to that as my subtle way of trolling the folks who have treated me like utter garbage for years which has made me overly defensive.  Never the less there are good posters there and good contributions to the GIS thread. 


This forums thread is about to heat up and even when it's not talkative Rainorshine is there everyday giving updates.

Jason Box on twitter is a must follow.

And lastly another must is the DMI site that Jason Box helped created and runs there is a lot of data there and the promice stuff goes very deep. 

I would also suggest using weatherundergrond for being able to track many GIS stations in real time.

Visible sat images are also a must.  They do not lie in terms of albedo, melt lakes and so on.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43487-2014-greenland-melt-season-discussion-thread/

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,848.200.html

https://twitter.com/climate_ice

http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/








Image to sign off the GIS talk with is this one below.  That is going to get much worse the next week and that is only versus 2000-2009 if it went back to full melt area climo 1981-2010 it would be even nastier.  Every time albedo even drops 1% the amount of extra energy GIS soaks up is enormous.

Nasty!



I fibbed last image:

Sat based ssta are nasty.  Actual OBS ssts can be seen below.

The entire West coast of GIS currently has 5-7C+ ssts = higher dew points advected into the GIS ice as well as generally much warmer than normal low level air temps off the sea.



« Last Edit: July 19, 2014, 11:40:13 PM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2294 on: July 19, 2014, 11:53:27 PM »
Bottom melt at least in the Northern Chuchki is taking off even with cold mid level air around.

That high concentration in many areas is highly deceiving.



That bottom graph is quite significant.  That looks like 1.5-2CM/day of bottom melt for the last 10 days or so.  With current thickness at 93CM, there's not much hope for that ice without pretty significant help from the weather.  If conditions continue as they have, it should be gone by September 1st.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2295 on: July 20, 2014, 12:36:31 AM »
....


How much do you think is going into melting Permafrost?

It does look like a lot is going into the NH upper latitude waters.
...
but while the arctic basin is "relatively" cool this summer.  Many large swaths where permafrost resides are getting baked.
 
Quite so.  Some of us have our eyes (brains?) glaze over here with all the numbers and stats here.  Some of us struggle to see big pictures instead.  Like, "how is the new normal for the arctic changing from the old normal?"

It seems to me that part of the new normal may be a tendency towards what whe've called "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" (WACCy weather) during the fall and winter, and now, perhaps "Cold Arctic, Warm Continents" (CAWCy weather) is the new normal for summer.

The region seems to be going all WACCy-CAWCy on us.

A Hypothesis came to me now looking at this, straight out of my youth on the coast of Cape Cod bay; that's what this seems like, writ large - the result of persistent sea breezes - strong local advective circulation. 

On hot days in the summer (think 30C+), after mid day, we would look forward to the breeze, sometimes down-right windy flow that would come in off of the 15-17C water.  Depending on how early the heat started and wind strength, these could get 10-15KM inland before petering out, and get as fast as 30KPH, which the sail craft owners very much appreciated. 

Where you have that kind of sharp, significant (+/-10C) difference in surface temperature, it would tend to form a 20-30KM border between the extremes, where sharp circulation would tend to isolate the air masses on either side them.  During high summer, at arctic latitudes, you don't have sunset to turn off the flow, though it would diminish somewhat with lower insolation values around 12AM.

Greater difference in temperature, greater strength to the local circulation, which may tend to interfere with movement of air masses at lower levels.

On the Atlantic side, while the gradient is not as abrupt, it does exist, when you consider the SST's in the Barents region. (current DMI SST's below and Canadian weather service images below)

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather_imagecontainer.php

http://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/351_50.gif

Over a distance of about 500KM in the Barents, SST's go from about -1C to almost 10.  That strikes me as enough of a gradient to support persistent flow.  Put a spin on it, and I think we have the source for our persistent lows emerging and puttering along the coast until dying over the Kara and eastern Laptev.

To preserve the character of the flow (and balance the heat transfer), the advection of warmer air would be at altitude, which would tend to carry it (and additional moisture) into the interior of the pack, where it would cool from a combination of transfer and radiation, increasing pressure and supporting the weak highs we see.  So, we see two basic "cloud decks" - the higher level, with moisture advected into the Arctic by higher level flow, and low level/fog, which is a result of sublimation/evaporation from open water, melt ponds and the ice itself.  Lack of strong local airflow might tend to produce the kind of "popcorn" like regions of cloud we have been seeing a lot of this season.

So, perhaps it is one of the things we've been missing this season, is that we may have been overlooking the effect of local (I'd say micro, but its not that small) climate effects in how they change circulation, as a result of local thermal differences.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2296 on: July 20, 2014, 04:17:16 AM »
The skies over parts of the Canadian Basin cleared today to show the real state of the ice there.  This cool down came at the perfect time to prevent the Canadian basin from melting out completely hopefully. Although even a week or ten days of a dipole could still push the ice loss over the Canadian basin quite a bit further North then what we saw in 2013.

It's quite absurd how bad channel 89GHZ is effected by clouds.  One day it's mostly 90-100% concentration the next day the clouds part just a bit and it plummets.


The low concentration mesh-pack embedded with stronger older floes reaches well down along the Southern part of the Canadian basin reaching as far North as 77-78N.

I don't know how far North this area will open up.  If I had to make a guess now I would say about 77N.  This is going to put a lot more emphasis on the ESS to retain more ice then it has anytime post 2007 IMO to have any chance of being tied with or above 2013 in area or extent when it's all said and done.   




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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2297 on: July 20, 2014, 04:31:10 AM »

amping up the contrast on the lower res amsr2 channels shows us where the arm of ice in the ESS is that is still likely around 2M thick I would think, with thinner ice in the Western ESS. The bright white area in the Northern Chukchi is cloud contamination.

The Canadian Arpichelago has been melting insitu hard for while a now.  In spite of the ice being thicker than in 2013 at this time if we see a continuation of warmth there I think the NW passage will open up this year quite a bit compared to 2013.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2298 on: July 20, 2014, 07:17:39 AM »
The latest thickness from HYCOM (yes I know ...)

looks like someone through a hand grenade into the Beaufort and Chukchi...


deep octopus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2299 on: July 20, 2014, 07:28:53 AM »
Looks like bottom melt is starting to work its magic in Beaufort. And there's little the weather can do about that.