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NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2400 on: July 24, 2014, 12:54:37 PM »

"Sea that is above -2"  doesn't "melt the ice from below all winter long" either.  When the air above the ice is -20 and the water underneath it is -1.7 or so the ice just keeps on getting thicker!

Substitute specific temp figures with "melting temperature of newly formed sea ice".  That is the point I was trying to make.  The SST continues to rise.  Eventually with late formation and early melt, it's going to contain so much heat that even -20 wont penetrate too far and the ice will be in continual melt from below.

It was just a thought.  I'd love to be wrong but it seems to me to be the final conclusion to what is currently happening.
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themgt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2401 on: July 24, 2014, 01:06:33 PM »
It shows how the rate of growth (cm/day) on the vertical axis varies with the ice thickness (horizontal axis). Say you increased the length of the freeze season, you'd get only small increase in thermodynamic thickening because by 1.5m and above the rate of ice growth is small. This is because as the ice thickens it better insulates ocean (warmer) from the colder atmosphere.

This is quite interesting, but wouldn't the same/similar effects likely occur in reverse in the summer, i.e. that the ice tends to melt faster the less of it is there is? It seems like your argument sort of boils down to the idea that it's easier to form new ice than to melt it, but is that what the underlying physics really suggests?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2402 on: July 24, 2014, 01:11:28 PM »
Separate into a new thread was not meant to imply a downgrade. I agree Chris Reynolds should be thanked for his carefully researched and thoughtful contributions.

I thought a separate thread would allow fuller discussion without getting in the way of talk of what is happening imminently and prevent this getting lost in a few months time in amongst all the discussion of the latest happenings. It is because it is important enough that I don't want it to get lost which it surely will when this thread is already up to page 49.
"Getting in a way of talk": how? Do we have anyone here who can't scroll a mouse wheel a little? =)
"Getting lost": if it's important, it won't be, anywhere. Links to individual posts are in posts' headers for everyone to use. If it's not important and/or people are not interested - it will be lost no matter where it is (here or in its separate topic). IMHO, of course...

I believe, staying in context of things which "spawned" the theme - is the best thing possible to maintain. That's why i oppose separation.

Very glad to realize i was mistaking about downgrading. Please accept my apologies about this! //bows
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2403 on: July 24, 2014, 01:17:45 PM »
Doesn't the following give their locations?

After a fashion yes, but if you download the KML file and fire up Google Earth you can closely examine whatever is of particular interest, with Radarsat-2, TerraSAR-X or (with a bit more work) MODIS as a backdrop. This is just the ice mass balance buoys on top of Radarsat:

 
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2404 on: July 24, 2014, 01:27:06 PM »
Agreed that a separate discussion on ice freeze up would be interesting.

To Chris Reynolds' point: I disagree to a certain extent that we can apply the Thorndike paper directly to the ice situation. This is constructed for ice freeze-up with a certain surface temperature. This means that an arbitrary heat flux can be applied to the surface to provide those conditions. However, when a water surface of the size of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free, the heat flux is limited by a) radiation into space and b) lateral heat flow in atmosphere and ocean. So we should rather ask if the heat accumulation in Summer might get the Arctic through the winter or most of the winter.
Arctic with no ice in Summer, but ice covered in winter is most likely metastable - if the heat accumulation is too high, it will never freeze again.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2405 on: July 24, 2014, 01:36:40 PM »
It shows how the rate of growth (cm/day) on the vertical axis varies with the ice thickness (horizontal axis). Say you increased the length of the freeze season, you'd get only small increase in thermodynamic thickening because by 1.5m and above the rate of ice growth is small. This is because as the ice thickens it better insulates ocean (warmer) from the colder atmosphere.

This is quite interesting, but wouldn't the same/similar effects likely occur in reverse in the summer, i.e. that the ice tends to melt faster the less of it is there is? It seems like your argument sort of boils down to the idea that it's easier to form new ice than to melt it, but is that what the underlying physics really suggests?
No, no. You're getting it all wrong. You see, graph presented is about a case when there is no insolation to talk about (at the pole, this starts as early as ~20th September). In such conditions, after several dozens hours, the air naturally cools down to much below 0C (as it radiates some of its energy into space, and there is no Sun to warm it up in a daily 24h cycle). In such conditions, there is a big difference between air temperature (which is much below freezing point) and directly-at-the-surface water (which, because of its huge thermal capacity and convectional mixing cools down dozens, if not hundreds, times slower - and sometimes remain liquid even at surface for quite a while after the Sun goes below the horizon for the polar night). The surface of the ocean is rarely exactly plain as long as it's liquid water - because of winds, there are nearly always some waves, quite often big ones. Mechanical motion creates mixing, and for a while, this prevents ice layer from forming. Not for long though, and depends on conditions. Low/no wind and/or snowing eventually happen, and this is the start of ice formation. Once even very thin layer of ice has formed, THEN you start to see what the graph is about: very rapid growth of ice initially, provided very cold athmosphere (below -20C) remains (which is usually the case).

But the thicker ice gets, the better insulator it becomes: i.e., the less thermodynamic interaction there is between cold athmosphere above and liquid water below. That's why the growth slows down the thicker ice gets. The graph importance is _how_ - quantatively, - this process happens "with everything else being the same". I.e., if the water udner the ice suddenly changes to be much warmer than near 0C - then the graph is irrelevant; won't describe things happening. If the air above gets above 0C, or when polar night is not the case anymore - i.e., it's spring time, - the graph is also irrelevant.

And no, the graph presented does not apply to melt. During melt times, there is the Sun, which is very, very major factor - deciding factor; there is secondary heat from the Sun - re-radiated by air, by GHGs in the air, by water in any currents which go directly under the ice and even - to lesser extent, - from deeper yet warm currents (Gulfstream remains in the Arctic are known to get somewhat deep at places, for example), etc. Melt is happening completely differently. It's more like "pulsing mode", instead of "rapid first, slows to crawl later" or "crawl first, accelerates to rapid melt later". There is, if you will, "breathing" when Arctic melts - it goes in somewhat rhytmic big chunks, quite often. The main "initiating melt" mechanic is, afaik, warm water and air currents (significantly above 0C), which "intrude" into cold enough "so far" areas. Air currents warm them up to the point of melt ponds on the surface (albedo plummets - direct insolation starts to work full-time). Water currents warm them up "from below", decreasing thickness of ice and fragmenting ice fields into "chunks", with bits and pieces of open water (which does not refreeze as long as warm water current is there), and then the more open water there is, the more direct sunlight absorbtion kicks in. When strong warm air and water currents "attack" an ice-covered region, it often "bursts" into open water incredibly fast. If it's clear sky and the time is May...August, then it can be amazingly fast.

Where those warm water and air currents come from? Warm water comes from already ice-free regions, and for shore - from the rivers, too. Warm air comes from same places and - later in the season, - gets very warm in the Arctic itself whenever it's not heavy clouds in the region (especially with higher and higher GHG content, it happens faster and to higher temps).

A small fraction of sunlight gets absorbed by the snow and ice too, but i believe it is a secondary melt mechanic.

So you see, the freeze is driven, primarily, by local process: the air "here" gets cold (without the sun), and it freezes sea surface "here" to ice; but the melt is primarily driven by inter-regional processes: the ice "here" is cold and it's reflecting most of sunlight, not allowing water below to warm up and only slowly warming up itself, - but water and winds from "somewhere else" come in, and do the lion share of melt. Of course melt can't be defined by a graph which defines freeze - melt is much, much more complex thing, since it's not a local process.

I hope i helped.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2014, 01:57:42 PM by F.Tnioli »
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2406 on: July 24, 2014, 04:35:24 PM »
Doesn't the following give their locations?

After a fashion yes, but if you download the KML file and fire up Google Earth you can closely examine whatever is of particular interest, with Radarsat-2, TerraSAR-X or (with a bit more work) MODIS as a backdrop. This is just the ice mass balance buoys on top of Radarsat:

 
Much more informative, thanks!
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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2407 on: July 24, 2014, 04:50:21 PM »
This is quite interesting, but wouldn't the same/similar effects likely occur in reverse in the summer, i.e. that the ice tends to melt faster the less of it is there is? It seems like your argument sort of boils down to the idea that it's easier to form new ice than to melt it, but is that what the underlying physics really suggests?
I think you make a valid point. The warmer the winter, the thinner and warmer the resulting ice. When it comes to the melt season, thinner, warmer ice will start to melt sooner. When you add the warmer summer, plus all the heat the ocean is absorbing globally (and the arctic ocean in particular absorbing ever-warming runoff from the continents), you get more melting. As the polyna's become larger, the water absorbs even more heat -- a positive feedback. All of these processes are ongoing -- every year a "little" more heat is added to the global system. (E.g., June had the largest SST anomaly for any month, ever.) That's why I don't see any slowdown in our future -- at least until and unless global warming reverses.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2408 on: July 24, 2014, 05:21:44 PM »
Doesn't the following give their locations?

After a fashion yes, but if you download the KML file and fire up Google Earth you can closely examine whatever is of particular interest, with Radarsat-2, TerraSAR-X or (with a bit more work) MODIS as a backdrop. This is just the ice mass balance buoys on top of Radarsat:

 

Jimmy, is that from today?  That entire region even looks awful on Radarsat.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2409 on: July 24, 2014, 05:57:33 PM »
Resolute, Canada is cloudy with a SE wind of 15km and 6/6 temps.  How bad is a 6C dew point on the ice with 15km winds?

It has to be atrocious.


The NW passage gets straight nailed with rain and possibly thunderstorms this week.

The Foxe Basin might be melted out in 7 days.  Jaxa already shows a big retreat there today.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2410 on: July 24, 2014, 06:28:10 PM »
I'll start a thread and copy replies over (I think) starting in a short while.

I'll reply there, but may not have the time tonight.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2411 on: July 24, 2014, 07:04:27 PM »
Jim, is that from today?  That entire region even looks awful on Radarsat.

It's from the most recent image currently available, which is July 19th
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2412 on: July 24, 2014, 09:07:24 PM »
The euro has upped the ante substantially.

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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2413 on: July 24, 2014, 09:48:36 PM »
The euro has upped the ante substantially.
That would be a pretty serious thrashing of everything on the Pacific side of the Arctic, with the CAA thrown in as a bonus.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2414 on: July 24, 2014, 10:12:40 PM »
The euro has upped the ante substantially.
That would be a pretty serious thrashing of everything on the Pacific side of the Arctic, with the CAA thrown in as a bonus.

yes!

I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2415 on: July 24, 2014, 10:30:14 PM »
lol
but that fight was virtual, not real

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2416 on: July 24, 2014, 10:35:12 PM »
What is real?

R these words real? 

Is the arctic real. 

I live at 38 5N.

But I fell like I visit the arctic everyday
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2417 on: July 24, 2014, 10:58:09 PM »
The euro has upped the ante substantially.
That would be a pretty serious thrashing of everything on the Pacific side of the Arctic, with the CAA thrown in as a bonus.

yes!


Shuffling through Climate Reanalyzer, in 2-3 days temps over most of the ESS rise and remain consistently between 1-5C, under high pressure.  Their model has burst of heat spread across the entire basin next week.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2418 on: July 24, 2014, 11:37:53 PM »
The smoke being pulled over the Canadian Arpichelago is absurd today.

I can't recall in my years of tracking the ice that kind of smoke in this region.

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TerryM

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2419 on: July 24, 2014, 11:41:10 PM »
S&S are not just finding clathrates dissolving on the slope, they're also recording extreme humidity & water vapor is a very strong GHG. The 6.9C water temperatures they've experienced aren't going to be kind to any errant ice that may drift close by.
While their expedition is researching Methane plumes, the data they're capturing is of more general interest.

A4R's thread under the Permafrost banner where SWERUS-C3 is discussed may provide fodder for this folder[size=78%]


Terry[/size]

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2420 on: July 24, 2014, 11:48:04 PM »
Friv


Smokey indeed. I'm not sure but what the soot/smoke might lower temperatures over bare rock & over open water. Any soot landing on snow or ice will cause rapid melt but over rock or water it might act as a sunshade?


Terry

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2421 on: July 24, 2014, 11:51:07 PM »
Friv


Smokey indeed. I'm not sure but what the soot/smoke might lower temperatures over bare rock & over open water. Any soot landing on snow or ice will cause rapid melt but over rock or water it might act as a sunshade?


Terry

It has to reflect solar energy to some extent.  However the incoming air mass is so warm it probably doesn't matter.
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a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2422 on: July 25, 2014, 12:19:24 AM »
Is the arctic real. 

The coloured graphs are pretty


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2423 on: July 25, 2014, 12:44:13 AM »
Friv


Smokey indeed. I'm not sure but what the soot/smoke might lower temperatures over bare rock & over open water. Any soot landing on snow or ice will cause rapid melt but over rock or water it might act as a sunshade?


Terry

It has to reflect solar energy to some extent.  However the incoming air mass is so warm it probably doesn't matter.

I recall some reading where the particulates actually increase heat transfer by way of capturing sunlight in the atmosphere, and then re-radiating long wave.  I suspect the albedo effect is minimal.
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Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2424 on: July 25, 2014, 01:00:44 AM »
It's hard for me to believe folks in this thread would be upset by a single post about a pending GIS melt event that is easily in the top 10 worst in modern human history and potentially top 5.
Without wishing to belabour the point, this hasn't happened. We're about 1 s.d. above average.
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/images/greenland_melt_area_plot_tmb.png

Edit:  I'm not chiming in like this to be offensive: I just think it's important we hold our own predictions to account just as much we do the protestations of "It's all normal" from the other side.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2425 on: July 25, 2014, 01:50:35 AM »
The 18z GFS takes it even further and torches almost the entire basin.

We are in for a treat!

I know everyone is super excited.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2426 on: July 25, 2014, 01:51:09 AM »
It's hard for me to believe folks in this thread would be upset by a single post about a pending GIS melt event that is easily in the top 10 worst in modern human history and potentially top 5.
Without wishing to belabour the point, this hasn't happened. We're about 1 s.d. above average.
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/images/greenland_melt_area_plot_tmb.png

Edit:  I'm not chiming in like this to be offensive: I just think it's important we hold our own predictions to account just as much we do the protestations of "It's all normal" from the other side.

So what? At least I have the nads to speak up.

You think it's important to push your agenda.  I don't care if I am wrong about a prediction.  If I was always right I would be a God and they don't exist.

It's also not like it can't happen or that GIS isn't getting smoked regardless.



Do you want to talk about how bad GIS is getting pounded?  Or about my busted prediction.  My prediction busted, you got me.

Doens't turn the heat down on GIS tho.


« Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 02:04:09 AM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Rick Aster

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2427 on: July 25, 2014, 01:56:30 AM »
I just think it's important we hold our own predictions to account ...
“Hold to account” and “our own” probably are not quite the right terms when the prediction is a weather forecast map from one of the regular sources, even if someone has taken the liberty of summarizing or abstracting it. That aside, it does seem to me that the Arctic weather forecasts this summer have had more difficulty than I would ordinarily expect to see.

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2428 on: July 25, 2014, 02:36:53 AM »
I know everyone is super excited.

The next ASI update has just become more interesting to write, that's for sure.  :)  8)
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2429 on: July 25, 2014, 02:37:04 AM »
The 18z GFS takes it even further and torches almost the entire basin.

We are in for a treat!

I know everyone is super excited.



Joining in solidarity with friv's excitement (and also out of objective observation of the forecast): August is going to be a train wreck if this holds. Jesus tap-dancing Christ, that is some serious heat.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 02:44:11 AM by deep octopus »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2430 on: July 25, 2014, 03:16:26 AM »
Kugaaruk, Nunavut

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-13_metric_e.html

Normals (Min, Max):
4, 12

Forecast (Min, Max):
Fri 10, 25
Sat 17, 26
Sun 16, 23

Today (att):
 
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2431 on: July 25, 2014, 03:30:01 AM »
Edit:  I'm not chiming in like this to be offensive: I just think it's important we hold our own predictions to account just as much we do the protestations of "It's all normal" from the other side.

I completely understand. Thank you Peter; I'm in full agreement with you.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2432 on: July 25, 2014, 03:35:57 AM »
So what? At least I have the nads to speak up.

I for one am glad you did. I am watching the GIS more closely now, as I should.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2433 on: July 25, 2014, 03:37:49 AM »
Kugaaruk, Nunavut

Normals (Min, Max):
4, 12

Forecast (Min, Max):
Fri 10, 25
Sat 17, 26
Sun 16, 23

The numbers in the CAA/Nunavit are pretty wild.

Friv, no one is objecting to your prediction, just putting what you predicted in context with what happened.

And By George, yes, the GIS is being smoked this year, again.

I wonder if what the models are picking up on - that huge input of heat - could be tied back to the developing El Nino?   There's a lot more heat in the tropics than last year at this time. 

Does the timing match with the circulation churned up by the most recent Typhoon to whack the China coast?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2434 on: July 25, 2014, 05:06:27 AM »
Terry posted this in the Greenland thread.  The summit even reached 1C at 3200M but only 30% of the ice sheet has experience melt.

hmm

When I see model temps like that.  It's about impossible to predict or assume only 30% if that is even really true of the GIS sheet is experiencing melt.
Maybe the summit has some local special valley properties or maybe not.  But 30% of the melt sheet means pretty much everywhere above 2000M had little to no melt.  Yet freeze levels around the ice sheet have been up to 3500M on some sounding sites and the 3200M summit itself went to 1C.

In 2012 it wasn't like the Summit was off the charts warmer than July 22nd 2014 but something is clearly way different.

Quote
On the 22nd Summit recorded a high of 1C. That's one hell of a temperature at 3200M (10,500 ft) elevation anywhere in the world.
Is anyone aware of whether the elevation at the Saddle is increasing or decreasing?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2435 on: July 25, 2014, 05:21:32 AM »
Now, what does this remind me of? Oh yeah! Mmmmm...

« Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 05:29:45 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2436 on: July 25, 2014, 05:51:35 AM »
Ice meet boot:


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2437 on: July 25, 2014, 09:12:33 AM »
Ice meet boot:


If we get an August like 2012, we may yet give that year a run for its money.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2438 on: July 25, 2014, 12:15:12 PM »
...
I wonder if what the models are picking up on - that huge input of heat - could be tied back to the developing El Nino?   There's a lot more heat in the tropics than last year at this time. 
...
"Tied" to El-nino - no, i don't think so. Rather, both huge input of heat in the Arctic and El-nino could be tied to a same underlying cause, or few. But, "affected" by El-nino - yep, sure, definitely for some extent. To some small extent this year - i believe most affection from an El-nino itself takes several months to a year to arrive into Arctic, plus current El-nino is not yet "is", - but only developing (and i can't say it's developing rapidly or definitevely, 'cause it's not). Still, some affection there most likely already is - yet it's nothing like "the astonishing sea ice retreat of 2007 [which] occurred during an especially strong el Nino", of course.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2439 on: July 25, 2014, 01:35:15 PM »
I know everyone is super excited.
I'm certainly looking forward to the next few weeks of melt, this might become the best indication thus far of how strong (weak) the post 2012 ice pack really is.

Not to distract this discussion, but I have to add that the SMB maps are telling a quite different story than NSIDC when it comes to the severity of recent GIS melt. Top 10 might not be too far off after all.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2440 on: July 25, 2014, 03:32:54 PM »
That aside, it does seem to me that the Arctic weather forecasts this summer have had more difficulty than I would ordinarily expect to see.
Wouldn't that imply possible two reasons. One that the jet stream is becoming weaker, therefore more erratic and unpredictable and maybe there is far more water exposure then is realized/ plus far more warm tundra and therefore impacting Arctic weather systems in ways can not be predictable.
Remember even in populated areas where ground radar and sophisticated weather stations abound in abundance, plus intense satellite coverage forecasting is difficult. In the Arctic no ground radar minimal weather station coverage and very little weather satellite, compared to almost real time farther south.
In the past when then ice was thick and extensive and the jet stream was strong and fairly consistent, Arctic weather was far more predictable, and as weather forecast models are based on what has happened in the past, if weather changes too rapidly from norm would not it be reasonable to expect that forecasts would become far more inconsistent from reality?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2441 on: July 25, 2014, 03:41:03 PM »
I continue to be amazed by this melt season, the lack of strong winds resulting in little dispersion of the pack and the odd nature of the winds that do exist. (Persistent winds heading north through the Fram which has reversed the movement of ice through the strait. Combined with the incursions of warmth from the lands surrounding the polar ice and, for the most part, along the edges of the ice, we get a melt image like this from "Cryosphere Today".

The melt of the ice, as evidenced by concentration is uniformly on the periphery of the pack. Even the melt in the dramatic ice free area that originated in the Laptev is behaving this way

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2442 on: July 25, 2014, 03:44:06 PM »
Ice meet boot:

Could be spectacular melt but we will have to wait and see if this forecast for temperatures over  the basin materialize.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2443 on: July 25, 2014, 03:55:01 PM »
Edit:  I'm not chiming in like this to be offensive: I just think it's important we hold our own predictions to account just as much we do the protestations of "It's all normal" from the other side.

I completely understand. Thank you Peter; I'm in full agreement with you.

In Friv's defense it is the model that is predicting such warmth and he is simply relaying, In an excited  manner, what the impact will be. I still am amazed how inaccurate the models have been all season.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2444 on: July 25, 2014, 04:28:45 PM »
Ice meet boot:

Could be spectacular melt but we will have to wait and see if this forecast for temperatures over  the basin materialize.
I'm a little unclear on what the temps really mean in terms of melt. It seems to me that the high pressure systems that bring the warm temps also bring clear skies (i.e., more insolation) and wind patterns that push ice outward, spreading it out (and southward) and making it more vulnerable to melting. But ice, as people have been pointing out of late, is a good insulator, and the thermal coupling between the air and the ice is fairly poor. So for a (relatively) short term event like the coming (predicted) high pressure systems how much of the melting is the result of air temperature and how much is the result of other factors? I'm sure the answer is known, I just don't know it.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2445 on: July 25, 2014, 04:55:39 PM »
I know everyone is super excited.
Not to distract this discussion, but I have to add that the SMB maps are telling a quite different story than NSIDC when it comes to the severity of recent GIS melt. Top 10 might not be too far off after all.
Agreed. Here are the SMB daily/cumulative plots from today. Given that the average is the already-warm 1990-2011 years, this is some pretty significant melt. The runoff must be absolutely gushing out of the ice. When you add the rate of glacier flow, this is going to be another year of significant mass loss.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2446 on: July 25, 2014, 05:57:22 PM »
I remember the days of being very excited about the changes.

I remember keeping images weekly from 2003/4/5/6 because I found the archives didn't always contain the same image as I saw on each day.

I recall the press articles when a polynia the size of the UK opened up in the October/November (can't recall exactly), ice which was supposed to be closing and growing.  I remember watching the 2005 melt season and the articles about "The arctic has become and island".  I also remember the 2006 "disappointment".

I vividly recall watching the CT anomaly plot for 2007.  Was it going to go over the 3m and off the graph or wasn't it....  In the end it didn't but it was very, very close.  Then, after 2008 they re-baselined the whole series and caused much confusion and a less "interesting" seasonal graph set.  Well till 2012 that was.  If they had not re-baselined it, then 2012 would have dropped right off the bottom of the graph.

In the last 14 years I have actively been watching the Arctic and Antarctic images, graphs and plots, there is only one trend.  Down.  I have learned not to be bothered by any one year or be over excited by any one short term trend.  Boring I know, maybe I got old and cantankerous.

My best guess this year is somewhere below 2009.  I don't believe that we will see the same trend as happened in 2013.  We had seen an early fast start dogged by storm after storm after storm which was keeping things cool.  As soon as the full strength of the sun dropped at all, things stalled.  Personally I don't see that we've had that this year.  OK it has not been a year conducive to melt, but, then again, give it a few weeks and we'll be below any year before 2007.

The trend continues.  Weather, storms, fires, jet stream.  None of them are bucking the long term trend which is more melt and a weaker pack.

The more interesting times are when weather, fires, smoke Enso and jet stream all coincide with the melt trend.  Then, let the games begin.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2447 on: July 25, 2014, 06:04:38 PM »
Ice meet boot:

Could be spectacular melt but we will have to wait and see if this forecast for temperatures over  the basin materialize.
I'm a little unclear on what the temps really mean in terms of melt. It seems to me that the high pressure systems that bring the warm temps also bring clear skies (i.e., more insolation) and wind patterns that push ice outward, spreading it out (and southward) and making it more vulnerable to melting. But ice, as people have been pointing out of late, is a good insulator, and the thermal coupling between the air and the ice is fairly poor. So for a (relatively) short term event like the coming (predicted) high pressure systems how much of the melting is the result of air temperature and how much is the result of other factors? I'm sure the answer is known, I just don't know it.

What the temps really mean in terms of melt is: above 0C, melt, below 0C, no melt, in usual conditions, fresh water. Salty water, take or take one or two degC

That high pressure systems bring wind patterns that push ice outward... Depending on what you mean by outward, but I would say... that is not right my friend.

There is this expression I don't understand. Thermal coupling between air and ice is fairly poor... What is thermal coupling? Actually the air acquires the temperature of the ice surface in the same fashion as with most other solid or liquid surfaces. It only depends on the thermal conductivity of air. Melting ice has the particularity of not increasing its temperature above melting temp because the heat transferred from (warmer) air is used for melting.

Do you mean that under high pressure systems and weak winds, the atmosphere becomes very stable and thermal inversion is promoted, which may prevent the lower layer of air to mix with warmer air above, and a bit of fog may show up too? Which leads to a lower melting rate than if the high pressure system brought not only clear skies but also generous (warm) surface winds.

Sorry man, this time I couldn't restrain myself. . . I know I am an a.s sometimes. I may be very wrong too btw

... since everything may be virtual ...

Edit: ice or water may even promote a higher transfer of energy via evaporation/sublimation, and changes in air humidity. That might be a *better* thermal coupling, if that expression makes some sense
« Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 06:11:55 PM by seattlerocks »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2448 on: July 25, 2014, 08:19:16 PM »
What the temps really mean in terms of melt is: above 0C, melt, below 0C, no melt, in usual conditions, fresh water. Salty water, take or take one or two degC
Yes, I think that's obvious, but my question was about the relative contributions of air temp, insolation, wind driven advection to warmer waters, etc. Air doesn't have a lot of thermal capacity (relative to ice), but there is a lot of it (relative to ice), so the equation comes down to how efficiently warm air can dump its heat into the ice and then move on. The question is relevant to Greenland, as well, where it seems that insolation and albedo have more to do with surface melt than air temperature. But all factors contribute -- so I'm trying to learn what those relative contributions are.

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2449 on: July 25, 2014, 09:08:54 PM »
Beats me.
I guess that would be one of *the* questions, which answer cannot be but modelled approximately
Sorry for the "preaching teaching" tone of my previous post.