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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2450 on: July 25, 2014, 09:50:04 PM »
This is by far the worse run so far of this season and possible back to parts of 2012.  That is just a nasty nasty ridge.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2451 on: July 26, 2014, 12:52:06 AM »
GFS seems to want to add insult to injury with a decent low pressure system between the pole and Barents region.  ECMWF has much weaker troughing in this region, and in the long range (about 7-10 days) shows some very strong winds pushing the multi-year ice into the Beaufort sea region.  Either way it looks like strong winds set to push the Laptev bite towards the pole.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

anthropocene

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2452 on: July 26, 2014, 01:03:58 AM »
A week ago I asked a (somewhat mischievous) question. Genuinely thank you for the responses. In many ways they helped to crystallize into thoughts the feelings which had prompted the question in the first place. Many points were raised many of which would be better discussed in other threads. In the meanwhile to focus on the topic of this thread, in order to explain my skepticism about the focus on sunny weather, warm temperatures and the (perceived) hope that this will produce historic amounts of ice melt I provide the below. It is only a thought experiment and doesn't include any quantitative data to back the argument up but hopefully it provides a coherent argument.

Summary:

  Arctic sea ice is melted by transferring energy into the ice. The medium which  can transfer by far the most energy is conduction from water. Melting large amounts of ice via solar radiation will be dependent on the melting season being dominated by clear skies (like 2007). By intuition, the chances of repeating such a weather pattern are continually reducing because of the increasing amounts of open water which will turn the arctic climate more oceanic. There are already signs that the dominant high pressure is moving to Greenland. The most likely way that the amount of ice melted will make a step change towards a summer ice-free arctic will be by increasing the amount of ice melted from contact with warm water. It is proposed that the most likely way for this to happen will be by storms (like the GAC-2012) which produce large scale melting of the ice mainly by rain, physical break up of the ice, mixing of cold and warm water thus getting warmer water into contact with the ice and  Eckmann pumping. Therefore it is proposed that lower minimum amounts of sea ice will only happen through increased strong cyclonic activity. In order to investigate this some method will need to be defined to differentiate cyclonic activity which reduces ice melt (cool, cloudy relatively quiet weather) from the stronger cyclones which could significantly increase the amount of ice melt.   

Detail:

 Three or four years ago (sorry I can't find a link) on this forum there was a long discussion on what were the main factors to cause large scale melting of the sea ice. There were two main alternatives: solar radiation, and warm ocean water. IIRC, the conclusion of the discussion was that warm water would be the instrument to deal the death blow to the summer ice. Of course the main way in which solar radiation melts ice is by heating water. However the below is a thought experiment to explain why solar radiation alone will not produce significantly larger melts (on even melts matching that of 2012).
 I haven't seen a complete description which describes on the micro scale the process of melting sea-ice in-situ but I suspect that the (cool) melted ice water acts as a block preventing (warmer) water to get into contact with the ice. This therefore acts as a negative feedback putting in place an upper limit on how much ice can be melted. The (recently melted) water has to be heated or replaced by warmer water before heating can continue. In quiet high pressure dominated weather the mixing will be minimal. The main method of heating the water is by sunlight. This hypothesis is backed up by the speed by which the ice melting slows down when the weather changes from sunshine to cloudy conditions. That is, if the (just melted) cool water mixed well with the large volumes of open water warmed by the sun for potentially many weeks then the amount of energy stored in the ocean water heated would be large enough to continue melting the ice at a fast rate for at least several days. The evidence suggests this is not the case.

 Instead it is proposed that a step change in the amount of sea ice melted during summer will only be achieved by increasing the amount of ice melted by the ocean water. The two main methods of achieving this are by increasing the temperature of the ocean  water or increasing the surface area of contact of the warm water and the ice. The contact area can be significantly increased by the following methods:

- break up of the ice sheets into smaller pieces (rubble)
- melt ponds
- rain (and fog)

The temperature of the water in contact with the ice can be significantly increased by:

- mixing via wave action and wind
- Eckman pumping

Almost by definition, the volume of melt ponds is relatively small. Therefore it is my contention that  melt ponds have little impact on the volume of ice melted. They can increase the amount of ice melted in melting seasons dominated by clear skies but as discussed above there is likely to be an upper limit to the amount of ice which can be melted in this type of season.
It can be seen that strong storms can produce several of the above effects and therefore could produce significant increases in the amount of sea ice lost in a melt season. 

Of course, the elephant in the room which is not discussed in any of the above is the amount of energy transported into the arctic via ocean currents. It is a long time since I even saw this discussed. Are the size and temperature of the ocean currents entering the arctic even measured by anybody anywhere? 

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2453 on: July 26, 2014, 01:33:39 AM »
ITPs measure OHC in the arctic reliably.

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Blizzard_of_Oz

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2454 on: July 26, 2014, 01:38:39 AM »
Actually the air acquires the temperature of the ice surface in the same fashion as with most other solid or liquid surfaces. It only depends on the thermal conductivity of air.

To halt potential confusion, perhaps have a look at the components of the Surface Energy Balance (SEB) at the ice-atmosphere interface and what items influence each of the terms in the SEB, particularly the sensible heat flux.

(1 - albedo)*SW Down + LW Down - LW Up = H + E + G

SW = shortwave radiation flux (i.e. solar)
LW = longwave radiation flux (often called thermal or terrestrial)
H = Sensible heat flux (positive up)
E = Latent heat flux (Evap, Sublimation; positive up)
G = Conductive flux (which includes the melt component, aka fusion term, in the ice; positive down or "into" the surface)
Units of each flux is Watts per meter squared (albedo is unitless).
H, the sensible heat flux, has conductive and convective aspects with the latter usually being much more important (beware of wording on the Wikipedia page if you happen to look there).

It's too much for post here, but have a read of a micrometeorology or thermodynamics text. Alternatively, Gordon Bonan's chapter on the SEB is very accessible (despite the text being for terrestrial and vegetated surfaces, the physics is the same). See equations in page 16 for H and E.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/tss/aboutus/staff/bonan/ecoclim/1sted/Chapter07.pdf
In short, the influence of the surface temperature on air temperature is more a function of the gradient between the two and wind, rather than the thermal conductivity of air.


Steve Bloom

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2455 on: July 26, 2014, 02:11:34 AM »
The 12z GFS is a bit more sloppy than the 06z but is still awful and after hour 180 to 240 it explodes a huge ridge over 2/3rd of the basin centered over the Beaufort.

Wow, explodes.  That's got to have really bad effects on the model.  How long before they're able to get it back up and running, do you think?

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2456 on: July 26, 2014, 02:58:50 AM »
No not the model.  The ridge.  All over Russia with quite nasty results.  Of course  Friv as usual is exagerating and needs to be spanked.  In reality the ridge will just smoke and smolder a bit.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2457 on: July 26, 2014, 02:59:09 AM »
The 12z GFS is a bit more sloppy than the 06z but is still awful and after hour 180 to 240 it explodes a huge ridge over 2/3rd of the basin centered over the Beaufort.

Wow, explodes.  That's got to have really bad effects on the model.  How long before they're able to get it back up and running, do you think?

Sounds like you could use a lesson son.


Quote
ex·plode  (k-spld)
v. ex·plod·ed, ex·plod·ing, ex·plodes
v.intr.
1. To release mechanical, chemical, or nuclear energy by the sudden production of gases in a confined space: The bomb exploded.
2. To burst violently as a result of internal pressure.
3. To shatter with a loud noise: The vase exploded into tiny pieces when it hit the floor.
4. To make an emotional outburst: My neighbor exploded in rage at the trespassers.
5. To increase suddenly, sharply, and without control: The population level in this area has exploded during the past 12 years.
6. To change state or appearance suddenly: Over the weekend the trees exploded with color.
7. Sports To hit a golf ball out of a sand trap with a shot that scatters the sand.
v.tr.
1. To cause to release energy or burst violently and noisily: The children exploded three firecrackers.
2. To show to be false or unreliable: explode a hypothesis.
3. Sports To hit (a golf ball) out of a sand trap with an explosive shot.


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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2458 on: July 26, 2014, 02:59:33 AM »
No not the model.  The ridge.  All over Russia with quite nasty results.  Of course  Friv as usual is exagerating and needs to be spanked.  In reality the ridge will just smoke and smolder a bit.

Could be some flames.  Blue ones.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

ktonine

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2459 on: July 26, 2014, 03:05:21 AM »
friv's 'explodes' equals Quine's 'gavagai' and both examples reinforce Quine's point about the inscrutability or indeterminacy of reference.

Point to Quine via friv.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2460 on: July 26, 2014, 03:47:08 AM »
friv's 'explodes' equals Quine's 'gavagai' and both examples reinforce Quine's point about the inscrutability or indeterminacy of reference.

Point to Quine via friv.

Surely you meant to say that 'Friv' is a pointer to Quine's name, rather than to Quine himself, who is already pointed to by HIS own name?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2461 on: July 26, 2014, 04:21:33 AM »
6. To change state or appearance suddenly:

Explosion to a dipole anomaly in all facets....




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2462 on: July 26, 2014, 04:53:07 AM »
6. To change state or appearance suddenly:

Explosion to a dipole anomaly in all facets....


That's going to be amazingly hard on everything from the Laptev to Amundsen Sound... We may make it to the top 3 yet.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2463 on: July 26, 2014, 05:43:57 PM »
This melt season continues to fascinate. (A caveat...I only have the previous 2 melt seasons to compare.) The lows over Greenland continue to push ice north through the Fram while ice in the Kara has been shoved to the east. Meanwhile, it appears as if the high concentrations of ice in the CAB are moving away from Greenland and the CA (We are seeing areas of low concentration appear along the archipelago and northern Greenland) and migrating across the pole toward the ESS , Chukchi and Laptev where it runs headlong into those dramatic ridges and warmth.

The models posted above by Friv suggest this pattern will persist through August 4 with troughs on the Atlantic side and ridges over the Pacific side.

I have no idea what this means for 2014 SIA and SIE minimums but it could be setting us up for a wild 2015.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2014, 05:52:31 PM by Shared Humanity »

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2464 on: July 26, 2014, 08:33:15 PM »
Edit:  I'm not chiming in like this to be offensive: I just think it's important we hold our own predictions to account just as much we do the protestations of "It's all normal" from the other side.

So what? At least I have the nads to speak up.

As do I.  In each of the prediction threads I've given my opinion which is simply that when you look at recent years,  2013 was most similar to 2009 and that therefore 2014 is likely to be similar to 2010.  I would now update that to say that since we didn't get the catastrophic early melt onset and rapid spring volume loss that we saw in 2010, we're now likely to come in a bit above 2010, and probably not that dissimilar to 2013 itself.

In the Beaufort, the ice edge did retreat quite rapidly for a while but has since come to more or less a hard stop. Looking at the animations from HYCOM (with due caution) and also the Maslanik graphs of ice age, it looks as though the ice has melted back to the edge of the multi-year cover and then stalled.  It remains to be seen how much of that we lose, but from the IJIS graph it looks as though the stall in extent loss is earlier and more pronounced than 2013.

Yes, there's a lot of rapid melt in the Laptev this year, which bears watching, but I don't think it'll go that much further.  Last year, while there wasn't such a lot of open water per se, there was a lot of loose and low concentration ice in the northern Laptev (and in the Arctic Basin north of Laptev/Kara).  It didn't melt out, probably because there just isn't enough heat input at such a high latitude to melt through even FY ice.

So overall my prediction is for a final figure similar to last year.  Possibly even higher than last year if things turn really bad/cold up there.  The state of the ice in northern Beaufort is currently no worse than last year, and in the East Siberian Sea it currently looks better than it did at the same time last year.

You think it's important to push your agenda.  I don't care if I am wrong about a prediction.  If I was always right I would be a God and they don't exist.
Having been intermittently banned from various denier sites for arguing with them, I'd be interested to see what you think "my agenda" is.  In my day job I'm a molecular biologist.  Unlike you, I do care if I'm wrong about a prediction.  Not that I take it personally or see it as some sort of moral failure: but if I've made a mistake I want to look into why, and then maybe change some of my views depending on the new evidence as it comes in.  If almost all my predictions start coming in wrong, then maybe I have to change something more fundamental.  Maybe the tools I'm using (in your case this would be the 5-10 day weather forecasts) just aren't useful for the hypothesis I'm testing?

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2465 on: July 27, 2014, 02:05:50 AM »
Edit:  I'm not chiming in like this to be offensive: I just think it's important we hold our own predictions to account just as much we do the protestations of "It's all normal" from the other side.

So what? At least I have the nads to speak up.

As do I.  In each of the prediction threads I've given my opinion which is simply that when you look at recent years,  2013 was most similar to 2009 and that therefore 2014 is likely to be similar to 2010.  I would now update that to say that since we didn't get the catastrophic early melt onset and rapid spring volume loss that we saw in 2010, we're now likely to come in a bit above 2010, and probably not that dissimilar to 2013 itself.

In the Beaufort, the ice edge did retreat quite rapidly for a while but has since come to more or less a hard stop. Looking at the animations from HYCOM (with due caution) and also the Maslanik graphs of ice age, it looks as though the ice has melted back to the edge of the multi-year cover and then stalled.  It remains to be seen how much of that we lose, but from the IJIS graph it looks as though the stall in extent loss is earlier and more pronounced than 2013.

Yes, there's a lot of rapid melt in the Laptev this year, which bears watching, but I don't think it'll go that much further.  Last year, while there wasn't such a lot of open water per se, there was a lot of loose and low concentration ice in the northern Laptev (and in the Arctic Basin north of Laptev/Kara).  It didn't melt out, probably because there just isn't enough heat input at such a high latitude to melt through even FY ice.

So overall my prediction is for a final figure similar to last year.  Possibly even higher than last year if things turn really bad/cold up there.  The state of the ice in northern Beaufort is currently no worse than last year, and in the East Siberian Sea it currently looks better than it did at the same time last year.

You think it's important to push your agenda.  I don't care if I am wrong about a prediction.  If I was always right I would be a God and they don't exist.
Having been intermittently banned from various denier sites for arguing with them, I'd be interested to see what you think "my agenda" is.  In my day job I'm a molecular biologist.  Unlike you, I do care if I'm wrong about a prediction.  Not that I take it personally or see it as some sort of moral failure: but if I've made a mistake I want to look into why, and then maybe change some of my views depending on the new evidence as it comes in.  If almost all my predictions start coming in wrong, then maybe I have to change something more fundamental.  Maybe the tools I'm using (in your case this would be the 5-10 day weather forecasts) just aren't useful for the hypothesis I'm testing?

Beaufort ice is FAR too slushy to survive the season (look at the uni bremen map - the greens and greenish yellows present on the week of July 20th WILL melt this season no matter what the weather!!)


Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2466 on: July 27, 2014, 03:29:25 AM »
Beaufort ice is FAR too slushy to survive the season (look at the uni bremen map - the greens and greenish yellows present on the week of July 20th WILL melt this season no matter what the weather!!)
Well yes, but there was equal amounts of slushy Beaufort ice last year. Summer minimum ice edge will be some way north of where it is now.  This isn't anything to be excited about.

Pop quiz: without looking at the calendar line, tell me which of the following links is 2013, and which is 2014. That's the Beaufort/Chukchi border - center of the picture is north of Barrow.

http://1.usa.gov/1mQR7AE
http://1.usa.gov/1mQReMH

Or how about this view covering most of the East Siberian sea and Chukchi?
http://1.usa.gov/1usRwDp
http://1.usa.gov/1usRATE

Or how about the bald fact that we are currently quarter of a millio square kilometres of ice above even last year?
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

We have to be governed by the actual data, not by the most pessimistic interpretation of the longest-range forecast we can find.

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2467 on: July 27, 2014, 04:37:30 AM »
We have to be governed by the actual data, not by the most pessimistic interpretation of the longest-range forecast we can find.
So you think Friv is overreaching by looking at 5 to 10 day forecasts, but you're willing to predict where we'll be in the middle of September based on where we are now?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2468 on: July 27, 2014, 07:05:17 AM »
Good luck Peter Ellis.  I thought I read you posting on Goodard and Watts before.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2469 on: July 27, 2014, 08:10:19 AM »
Good luck Peter Ellis.  I thought I read you posting on Goodard and Watts before.
I checked out some of his posts.  Nothing to imply he's trolling here.

It is easy to get over excited at rotten ice - I/we did that last year just in time for the melt to stall around the 1st of August.

Every prediction we make right now is in the same spirit as attempting to predict the exact value of a corporate stock 2 months in advance.  The best we can do is predict a range - which is exactly how traders who work in options make - or lose - their money.  We can look at fundamentals and history, but one whimsical event can set of a chain of events which totally change the expected outcome.

The closer we get, the narrower that range of probabilities will become.  Until the actual minimum, the accuracy of *every* prediction is based far more on luck, than skill.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2470 on: July 27, 2014, 08:55:18 AM »
In the Beaufort, the ice edge did retreat quite rapidly for a while but has since come to more or less a hard stop. Looking at the animations from HYCOM (with due caution) and also the Maslanik graphs of ice age, it looks as though the ice has melted back to the edge of the multi-year cover and then stalled.  It remains to be seen how much of that we lose, but from the IJIS graph it looks as though the stall in extent loss is earlier and more pronounced than 2013.

....So overall my prediction is for a final figure similar to last year.  Possibly even higher than last year if things turn really bad/cold up there.  The state of the ice in northern Beaufort is currently no worse than last year, and in the East Siberian Sea it currently looks better than it did at the same time last year.

I'm suspecting the same thing. Which is galling because earlier this year I blogged on it and said:
Quote
This suggests to me that while this melt season will see probably a large volume loss as this older thicker ice is thinned and subjected to lateral melt, a total melt out in Beaufort, Chukchi, and possibly as far as the East Siberian Sea, is looking unlikely. I suspect we may see persistent low concentration ice in those regions by late summer. NSIDC seem to be of a similar mind, but don't consider the volume issue.

The problem is, as a result of comments persuading me I was wrong, I subsequently changed my mind and decided it wasn't a strong factor.  :(

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2471 on: July 27, 2014, 09:18:19 AM »
Good luck Peter Ellis.  I thought I read you posting on Goodard and Watts before.
I checked out some of his posts.  Nothing to imply he's trolling here.

It is easy to get over excited at rotten ice - I/we did that last year just in time for the melt to stall around the 1st of August.

Every prediction we make right now is in the same spirit as attempting to predict the exact value of a corporate stock 2 months in advance.  The best we can do is predict a range - which is exactly how traders who work in options make - or lose - their money.  We can look at fundamentals and history, but one whimsical event can set of a chain of events which totally change the expected outcome.

The closer we get, the narrower that range of probabilities will become.  Until the actual minimum, the accuracy of *every* prediction is based far more on luck, than skill.

I think he has a pretty clear agenda but my opinion has no more weight than anyone else so it doesn't matter.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

6roucho

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2472 on: July 27, 2014, 10:44:45 AM »
We have to be governed by the actual data, not by the most pessimistic interpretation of the longest-range forecast we can find.
So you think Friv is overreaching by looking at 5 to 10 day forecasts, but you're willing to predict where we'll be in the middle of September based on where we are now?

I think that Peter is arguing that the state of the ice is better data (or at least less chaotic data) than 5-10 day weather forecasts. I guess the problem is that may longer be true. It's a feature of systems on the edge of change that physical correlations based on past data become less reliable. It's quite likely that in the season (or some number of seasons before) the ice substantially melts out that predictions based on previously predictive variables will become unreliable, and new predictive variables will emerge. That seems to be happening now.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2473 on: July 27, 2014, 10:54:51 AM »
Good luck Peter Ellis.  I thought I read you posting on Goodard and Watts before.
I checked out some of his posts.  Nothing to imply he's trolling here.

It is easy to get over excited at rotten ice - I/we did that last year just in time for the melt to stall around the 1st of August.

Every prediction we make right now is in the same spirit as attempting to predict the exact value of a corporate stock 2 months in advance.  The best we can do is predict a range - which is exactly how traders who work in options make - or lose - their money.  We can look at fundamentals and history, but one whimsical event can set of a chain of events which totally change the expected outcome.

The closer we get, the narrower that range of probabilities will become.  Until the actual minimum, the accuracy of *every* prediction is based far more on luck, than skill.

I think he has a pretty clear agenda but my opinion has no more weight than anyone else so it doesn't matter.

I don't see what his agenda is other than a push for accuracy. The models have been pretty poor in general this year with regards to predicting when certain systems will move into place in the Arctic.

Posting model predictions is fine as it can be informative but you've used a large amount of emotive language to describe these forecasts and you've placed high certainty on them occurring in spite of continued lack of actual success from them.

You also seem to take any criticism as a personal attack and respond very aggressively. The insinuation that Ellis has a agenda for instance is not a substantive response.

I say this disagreeing strenuously with Ellis that we will see this year end with more extent than 2013, I do however have to accept that most evidence is pointing to exceptionally hard stall in melting conditions at the moment and that models are not very accurate in general past 7 days.

johnm33

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2474 on: July 27, 2014, 11:11:06 AM »
Looking at http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.48,86.69,512 the east wind in Chukchi/Ess is set to drive the ice north, [ http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2014072512_2014072900_921_arcticicespddrf.001.gif ] just as the winds around the polar low are set to vacate the same area and raise Fram ice export. So if the ice is as slushy, mobile and compressable as I think it is, and the patterns persist for a couple more days 14 could play catch-up.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2475 on: July 27, 2014, 11:27:59 AM »
Frivolous, you're really making this thread very unpleasant to read.
You are abrasive, contentious, you cannot stand criticism, and your attack on Peter Ellis' perfectly well-argumented and valid message is downright offensive.

And I'm really sorry to have to register just to say that to you.

Now I'm back to lurking, since I don't have the means to add anything meaningful to this amazing forum.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2477 on: July 27, 2014, 12:51:28 PM »
I first really started reading and paying attention to Friv's posts on americanwx in the run-up to hurricane Sandy.

If you dislike Friv's posts I suggest you not read them.  If you want to understand his style, I suggest you head over to americanwx and read some of the old comment threads- I'm sure Friv would be happy to point you to some of the more 'interesting' discussions. 

In the run-up to Sandy some of the the long range model (10 day) forecasts predicted the hard left turn into the American mainland.  This essentially completely defied historical patterns.  By 8 days out the ECMWF ensembles were converging on the New Jersey landfall solution. As we got closer to landfall more and more of the models moved toward the hard left turn solution.

In the end, only those who ignored the models were surprised by where Sandy landed.  The further out in forecasting range you were looking, the less surprised you were. 

Ignoring *any* information is foolhardy and unscientific.  Synthesizing and weighting information is - at times - as much an art as it is science.  At least when we're in situations where there is a large uncertainty in the outcome (based on the best science).  Obviously arctic weather and sea-ice loss fall into the large uncertainty area.

I have hesitated making any predictions the past year because last year showed me that I'm missing something in my own understanding.  We need only look at Chris R's understanding over the past 24 months to see how quickly one's position can change.  Chris spends as much or more time looking at the numbers, trying to figure out the mechanisms, and generating data synthesis as anyone - yet even he has been unable to find a position he's happy to call home.  Apologies to Chris if he disagrees - he's the expert on his own opinions :)

Frankly, if your opinion is based on Ouija Board model Rev 2.0 it's as likely to be correct as mine.  Though if you're using the older Ouija Board model it's really time to upgrade :)




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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2478 on: July 27, 2014, 01:17:08 PM »
Ignoring *any* information is foolhardy and unscientific.  Synthesizing and weighting information is - at times - as much an art as it is science.  At least when we're in situations where there is a large uncertainty in the outcome (based on the best science).  Obviously arctic weather and sea-ice loss fall into the large uncertainty area.

Well said, and robust argument is one way to synthesize information. Unfortunately science people often lack social negotiating skills.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2479 on: July 27, 2014, 01:25:33 PM »
Ignoring *any* information is foolhardy and unscientific.  Synthesizing and weighting information is - at times - as much an art as it is science.  At least when we're in situations where there is a large uncertainty in the outcome (based on the best science).  Obviously arctic weather and sea-ice loss fall into the large uncertainty area.

Well said, and robust argument is one way to synthesize information. Unfortunately science people often lack social negotiating skills.

As the last two posts appear to be pointed my way I'll explicitly point out no one is suggesting you should ignore long or middle range forecasts, they point to possibilities and when the ensemble predictions start to line up that way it's a reasonable indicator of what may occur but that caveat is important.

I don't dislike Frivs posts, I'd just prefer less emotive language and more descriptive language to be used. *shrug* I don't see how that should be a contentious position.

His posting of model forecasts does adds more information to the thread.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2480 on: July 27, 2014, 01:33:23 PM »
Ignoring *any* information is foolhardy and unscientific.  Synthesizing and weighting information is - at times - as much an art as it is science.  At least when we're in situations where there is a large uncertainty in the outcome (based on the best science).  Obviously arctic weather and sea-ice loss fall into the large uncertainty area.

Well said, and robust argument is one way to synthesize information. Unfortunately science people often lack social negotiating skills.

As the last two posts appear to be pointed my way I'll explicitly point out no one is suggesting you should ignore long or middle range forecasts, they point to possibilities and when the ensemble predictions start to line up that way it's a reasonable indicator of what may occur but that caveat is important.

I don't dislike Frivs posts, I'd just prefer less emotive language and more descriptive language to be used. *shrug* I don't see how that should be a contentious position.

His posting of model forecasts does adds more information to the thread.

No siffy, I didn't mean you. :-) We're all about equally robust in our opinions and in varying degrees as quick to take umbrage at a wide range of wrongness. It's probably a good thing.

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2481 on: July 27, 2014, 03:35:53 PM »
Beaufort ice is FAR too slushy to survive the season (look at the uni bremen map - the greens and greenish yellows present on the week of July 20th WILL melt this season no matter what the weather!!)
Well yes, but there was equal amounts of slushy Beaufort ice last year. Summer minimum ice edge will be some way north of where it is now.  This isn't anything to be excited about.

Pop quiz: without looking at the calendar line, tell me which of the following links is 2013, and which is 2014. That's the Beaufort/Chukchi border - center of the picture is north of Barrow.

http://1.usa.gov/1mQR7AE
http://1.usa.gov/1mQReMH

Or how about this view covering most of the East Siberian sea and Chukchi?
http://1.usa.gov/1usRwDp
http://1.usa.gov/1usRATE

Or how about the bald fact that we are currently quarter of a millio square kilometres of ice above even last year?
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

We have to be governed by the actual data, not by the most pessimistic interpretation of the longest-range forecast we can find.

Not actually that hard to tell-the consolidated ice pack edge was much further south in 2013. There were holes in the ice pack, sure, but holes are not the same as separated floes with water in between.

Ice with under 50% concentration in Beaufort before about July 20th or 25th is guaranteed not to survive the season. 2013 was no exception.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2482 on: July 27, 2014, 04:49:37 PM »
Robert Scribbler covers another flux into the arctic OHC which is increasing in magnitude:

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/big-arctic-ocean-warm-up-predicted-for-this-week-melt-to-speed-up-or-sea-ice-to-show-resiliency-due-to-variability-strength-of-negative-feedbacks/
Thanks for the link -- that's an interesting article. I suspect he's overestimating the negative feedback effects of the fresh water, but only time and more research will tell. In the meantime, he's one more analyst adding his voice the the importance of the predicted high pressure patterns. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2483 on: July 27, 2014, 06:26:47 PM »
I offer opinions nothing more.  Pretty simple.  Americanwx is a place where skeptics and deniers crucify others opinions with totally absurd double standards.

Instead of calling me out for being wrong afterwards like with the GIS area thing.  Maybe counter my opinion of what is going to happen when I make it?

It's pretty easy to sit by and wait for someone to fail then bring it up later.

I only took issue with Peter Ellis using melt area as a sole way to judge GIS this year when other measurements show the melt season has been pretty treacherous.  That's why I said I think he has an agenda.  A Man of science who works in science already knows you gotta do better fact compiling then that to make that kind of claim.

Futures, predictions, guesses, opinions are not the same as history.
 





« Last Edit: July 27, 2014, 06:31:52 PM by Frivolousz21 »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2484 on: July 27, 2014, 06:42:29 PM »
The 5-10 day fantasy is now becoming a gruesome reality for the ice.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2485 on: July 27, 2014, 06:50:07 PM »
I lowered brightness to show the ice in a different manner on the image below.  I will refrain from commenting take it however you see it.




Here is the Chukchi region/CAB yesterday starting to clear out under the developing ridge.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2486 on: July 27, 2014, 07:02:16 PM »
I am feeling a 2008 redux.

very much so as long as this ridging keeps cycling over the Pacific side.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2487 on: July 27, 2014, 07:07:04 PM »
I am feeling a 2008 redux.

very much so as long as this ridging keeps cycling over the Pacific side.



Interesting, do you know of any repositories that show what the conditions were like in previous years in the same format as this?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2488 on: July 27, 2014, 07:12:17 PM »
Yes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkhavnar.htm

2008 didn't turn warm until August 4-5th roughly.
2014 is turning warm almost a week earlier.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2489 on: July 27, 2014, 07:23:34 PM »
Looks like 2014 has a big jump start on 2008.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2490 on: July 27, 2014, 08:00:48 PM »
In the Beaufort, the ice edge did retreat quite rapidly for a while but has since come to more or less a hard stop. Looking at the animations from HYCOM (with due caution) and also the Maslanik graphs of ice age, it looks as though the ice has melted back to the edge of the multi-year cover and then stalled.

Just in case you blinked and missed it here's the latest (albeit not yet operational) thickness animation from HYCOM/CICE:

Click to animate.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2491 on: July 27, 2014, 08:42:43 PM »
The 12z Euro is coming in just plain nasty for the ice.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2492 on: July 27, 2014, 09:51:59 PM »
Nice animation. It appears that about half of the remaining 5 million km^2 ice area is 1.5 meters or less, and virtually nothing is more than 2.5 meters.

I'm not sure these are on the same basis, but if they are, 2014 looks much more vulnerable than last year:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2014072612_2014072700_921_arcticictn.001.gif

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013072612_2013072700_502_arcticictn.001.gif

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2493 on: July 27, 2014, 10:06:02 PM »
Everyone, I don't mind the bickering, but please try to keep insults and motivation-guessing to a minimum. I want to keep both Peter Ellis and Friv on board. I want the exaggerations and the caveats. I want the torches and the cool numbers.

Diversity is healthy. Don't take it too personal. It's just a bloody forum.   8)

----

In the meantime, I have published the latest ASI update on the ASIB (I have to advertise now, because everyone is hanging out here  ;D ). From the conclusion:

Quote
The Arctic is slowly creeping towards the final stage of the melting season, with 2014 now even trailing last year after two weeks of cold and cloudy weather over large parts of the Arctic. But 2013 stalled big time around this time last year, so if the current forecast plays out, the difference shouldn't become larger. 2014 might even dip below 2013 again.

This forecast needs to be extended though, at least for a while, if 2014 is to end below 2013. Of course, there still is quite a bit of melting potential in regions like the Kara, Beaufort and East Siberian Sea, but there is not much help to be expected from melt ponds, sea surface temperatures or the ice pack's compactness.

It all comes down to insolation and wind now.
If the forecasts don't die on us, we should be in for a late round of semi-exciting weeks. Let the flames begin.  ;)
« Last Edit: July 28, 2014, 12:00:34 AM by Neven »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2494 on: July 27, 2014, 10:38:43 PM »
Nice animation. It appears that about half of the remaining 5 million km^2 ice area is 1.5 meters or less, and virtually nothing is more than 2.5 meters

Appearances can sometimes be deceptive, particularly when it comes to models of Arctic sea ice! More info on the HYCOM forum:

https://groups.google.com/a/hycom.org/forum/#!topic/forum/Rqa_ao0bGQE

Quote
Compared to IceBridge's 2013 Arctic campaign, Global ice thickness is closer to the observed flight data in the regions of the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Archipelago whereas ACNFS has lower error for the region north of Greenland.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2495 on: July 28, 2014, 12:04:27 AM »
I have updated the SLP Patterns page for July:







That last one is about the worst slowdown setup possible, with highs over Siberia, and lows over the Central Arctic/American side.

Compare to other years here.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2496 on: July 28, 2014, 12:27:15 AM »
I have updated the SLP Patterns page for July:







That last one is about the worst slowdown setup possible, with highs over Siberia, and lows over the Central Arctic/American side.

Compare to other years here.

Images aren't loading for me.

Edit: although I can fix the links on my quote.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2497 on: July 28, 2014, 02:00:25 AM »
Nice animation. It appears that about half of the remaining 5 million km^2 ice area is 1.5 meters or less, and virtually nothing is more than 2.5 meters

Appearances can sometimes be deceptive, particularly when it comes to models of Arctic sea ice! More info on the HYCOM forum:

https://groups.google.com/a/hycom.org/forum/#!topic/forum/Rqa_ao0bGQE

Quote
Compared to IceBridge's 2013 Arctic campaign, Global ice thickness is closer to the observed flight data in the regions of the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Archipelago whereas ACNFS has lower error for the region north of Greenland.

Reading between the lines, I guess this means that HYCOM must be underestimating the thick ice near Greenland's north shore (and stretching who knows how far North), while overestimating the rest. This is of course based on the assumption that PIOMAS is unbiased.

As you say, not easy to say anything confidently.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2498 on: July 28, 2014, 02:50:32 AM »
Instead of calling me out for being wrong afterwards like with the GIS area thing.  Maybe counter my opinion of what is going to happen when I make it?
I think it would be even more tedious if I jumped up and down like a monkey every single time you post to say "X is going to torch Y in Z days".

I only took issue with Peter Ellis using melt area as a sole way to judge GIS this year when other measurements show the melt season has been pretty treacherous. 
Edit: realised you were talking about GIS here.  I've not really waded into that debate at all because I know even less about that than about Arctic sea ice.  My first comment was aimed at someone (mis)interpreting the forecasts you posted as showing ground level temperatures (which they weren't).  My second was to point out that a prediction of top 5-10 melts on record was a bit overblown.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2499 on: July 28, 2014, 03:37:59 AM »
End of conversation.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow