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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2550 on: July 29, 2014, 03:02:48 AM »
The whole thing was about (in my eyes unreasonable comments) that this year should see some particular melt due to methane levels.
Okay, so methane levels are rising at a rapid rate, but they won't affect melt this year for some magic reason. Got it.

Robert Marston

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2551 on: July 29, 2014, 03:07:15 AM »
RE the Laptev 'hole' / warm-up. May want to consider that the Arctic Ocean is stratified with a cold, fresh layer on top. If you have a warm water current below the surface, and we've had an invading flow of subsurface warmth beneath the Laptev and increasing for three years, you get more hydrate/methane destabilization. And if the destabilization is broad enough it drives upwelling. If the upwelling breaks the surface layer, you end up with warming.

South winds over the Laptev for two days also drive a bit of atmosphere-ocean heat transfer. May well see more of that over the coming days.

RE the ice configuration. Look at the past 3 years and you'll be surprised how similar they all are.

The surface ice is very weak and broken. So any major system is likely to have an exaggerated effect. In general, there are many feedbacks pushing for long term melt. The primary negative feedback of significance is an ongoing freshening, especially in the Beaufort. And that may be one reason why storms and wind have had so much impact there during recent years.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2552 on: July 29, 2014, 03:07:50 AM »
The increase in ssts is probably from solar.  Either way that is a lot of heat into the top layers of the laptev with winds coming out of the Southerly direction.

Losses on Jaxa for the 28th are not counted yet but we can see the incredible force meeting the weak ice edge in the Laptev.

Now imagine the warmth being transported via the water and over the top of the water where surface temps can warm up more and hold more water vapor then with 0-1C ssts.

Looking at the Euro, GFS ensembles, ukmet, and Euro ensmebles the Laptev(Eastern side) is in for a world of pain.

The ice in parts of the Chuchki is so bad off that ssts are showing up within the pack.  EC is also showing 4-5C ssts in the Eastern side of the Laptev water. That is very very warm for there.  I know you can imaging 4-5C ssts eating into the side of the ice pack if winds are favorable with wave action.








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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2553 on: July 29, 2014, 03:24:48 AM »
<hopping aboard Frivs bandwagon>

Those SSTs in the Laptev and Chukchi are very concerning.  If that water can get to the ice, it will tear through even MYI very quickly.  That is a huge amount of heat. At 6C, Anything less than 2M could literally disappear in under 48 hours.  No ice that gets driven into that water has any chance of survival. Any ice that gets that heat driven under it is in serious trouble.

If the weather "firestorm" you've been posting about arrives, we could see large areas where the ice loses 10CM/day of thickness or more.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2554 on: July 29, 2014, 03:28:46 AM »
It's arrived.  How long and how hard it persists is the bigger question.




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Robert Marston

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2555 on: July 29, 2014, 03:43:08 AM »
Warm, 15-25 mph winds over both the Laptev and the Beaufort.

The Laptev winds, running over 400-500 miles of open water are bound to generate a lot of fetch. That's probably the primary driver of the rapid ice edge recession we saw there over the past two days.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2556 on: July 29, 2014, 03:48:59 AM »
The worst part is the relatively solid but thin ESS gets the boom the hardest.

The ESS is 70-78N for the most part.  This isn't like 80-90N in August there is just so much more room for that area to be able to lose 1.5-2M in the next 40-45 days with bottom melt well into September.

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jonthed

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2557 on: July 29, 2014, 04:19:11 AM »
Does that amount of heat in the ESS have any bearing on the clathrates on the seabed?

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2558 on: July 29, 2014, 04:25:27 AM »
Anyone know what's up with the warm patch west of Svalbard (and SZ)? Could it be upwelling?



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Robert Marston

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2559 on: July 29, 2014, 04:36:07 AM »
Does that amount of heat in the ESS have any bearing on the clathrates on the seabed?

It's more an annual cumulative effect, but any spike adds stress.

S&S expedition on the Oden bound for that region now. So we may well get first hand observations.

These maps posted by Frivolous imply a warm frontal type boundary advancing into the Arctic through these zones. So though they are at first associated with highs, we could expect some liquid precipitation at the edge zone. Smoke from ongoing and rather large Siberian fires is more and more likely to become entrained as the pattern persists. Overall effect of warm air, advancing ridge, smoke, and leading edge precip is melt favorable.

Laptev Albedo is very low. Any more recession in ESS and Beaufort and you can end up with a melt wedge formation. Ocean surrounds ice on three sides. That can serve as a strong melt amplifier.

GFS shows warmth flowing out of Siberia through Monday. Other models are in rough agreement. Looks like a favorable for melt forecast should these conditions, as predicted, emerge.

Robert Marston

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2560 on: July 29, 2014, 04:41:59 AM »
Anyone know what's up with the warm patch west of Svalbard (and SZ)? Could it be upwelling?

Yes.

We've had deep ocean warming throughout this region over the past two decades. Very rapid for deep water formations. We have deep warm water currents advancing from the south into these regions. Where they run up against shelf or slope zones, they upwell.

In addition, you have clathrate destabilization in that region off Svalbard. Relatively decent history of methane release there.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2561 on: July 29, 2014, 04:54:27 AM »
Earlier in July I thought we were on track to beat 2007 as long as we had decent melting weather.  However seeing how far behind 2014 has fallen with a week of poor melting weather I am thinking that the ice condition is stronger and we are more likely to be looking at something more like 2010 or 2013.  We'll see how the pack holds up with the current weather.  While this is pretty good for melting, the worst seems to only last 3 or 4 days.  Then a low pressure starts to spin up and take over towards the 7 day mark.  While 7 days is fairly uncertain in forecasting terms, the fact some type of low pressure pattern takes hold suggests the pattern is fairly likely to switch back in some way or another.  The model runs suggest the low pressure dominated pattern will be a lot warmer than recent similar periods, However I've also seen plenty of runs earlier this year that were a lot warmer in the 7 - 10 day range, but cooled significantly over time.

We'll be back to slow melt within a week in my opinion.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2562 on: July 29, 2014, 05:21:45 AM »
Earlier in July I thought we were on track to beat 2007 as long as we had decent melting weather.  However seeing how far behind 2014 has fallen with a week of poor melting weather I am thinking that the ice condition is stronger and we are more likely to be looking at something more like 2010 or 2013.  We'll see how the pack holds up with the current weather.  While this is pretty good for melting, the worst seems to only last 3 or 4 days.  Then a low pressure starts to spin up and take over towards the 7 day mark.  While 7 days is fairly uncertain in forecasting terms, the fact some type of low pressure pattern takes hold suggests the pattern is fairly likely to switch back in some way or another.  The model runs suggest the low pressure dominated pattern will be a lot warmer than recent similar periods, However I've also seen plenty of runs earlier this year that were a lot warmer in the 7 - 10 day range, but cooled significantly over time.

We'll be back to slow melt within a week in my opinion.

It will depend on the Scandinavian area quite a bit.

The NATL and NPAC stay pretty solid for ridging over at least two parts of the arctic.

That is a split pattern for the arctic on the GFS but the ESS region would still be under the influence of the anti-cyclone.

I don' think a pattern like the Euro show would yield below average melt.  I would doubt even the GFS which is still pretty damn warm would either.






-94K or so on Jaxa today.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2563 on: July 29, 2014, 05:34:33 AM »
Jaxa dropped -94K.

To reach 5 million on September 1st we have to lose about -56K/day on Jaxa thru the rest of July and August.

If September lost -300K.  Then -48.5K/day would be needed on average to reach 5.0 mil for the min on Jaxa.

Jaxa dropped -94K.

I think -60K/day min and around -70K/day max will happen by September 1st.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2564 on: July 29, 2014, 06:13:07 AM »
Two things:   SST have been heating up......especially north of Scandanavian countries.

JAXA melt last six days (most recent on top):  The ramp gains momentum...

94K yesterday
88K day before yesterday....
68K  etc...
43K
34K
28K
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2565 on: July 29, 2014, 07:18:09 AM »
The 00z GFS cuts out the Beaufort SLP for now and follows the Euro and then some.


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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2566 on: July 29, 2014, 07:32:55 AM »
The ESS is where the most potential vulnerable ice is.

It is also where ground zero is progged the next 8-9 days.

How slow or fast does everyone think that large relatively healthy looking slab of ice will go in what direction the next 10 days?

I don't know about size and how much it will shrink.  That is the unknown wildcard.  But I bet it turns really nasty after a few more days.

The Northern Laptev Bottom looks flat awful.  Could be a huge area by the Laptev this year melted out to 83-85N.





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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2567 on: July 29, 2014, 08:06:32 AM »

The ESS is where the most potential vulnerable ice is.

It is also where ground zero is progged the next 8-9 days.

How slow or fast does everyone think that large relatively healthy looking slab of ice will go in what direction the next 10 days?

The Navy model shows a ice movement scale up to 30 cm/s.  Lets say near enough to 0.5m/s which gives 40km over a day.  Over a 1000km melt front that is 40,000 sq km of ice loss, which is not unreasonable for a major ice loss event.  Over 4 days thats 160,000 sq km of ice.  That is the current difference between 2014 and 2010.  But we need more like 600,000 to catch up to 2007 or 2011.

And in my opinion the ESS is not going to be easy to melt.  Historically it has been the most resilient, with 2007 and 2012 being the only significant melt out.  Thickness charts from late winter show a tongue of thick ice towards the ESS.  The Laptev open water is in a great position to attack this tongue, but the melt front on the Chukchi side is advancing slowly and the current weather pattern has good heat, but unfavourable wind direction.  While the current MODIS looks fairly slushy, all peripheral ice areas always look slushy this time of year, and this year stands out as having remarkably low amounts of open water visible within the boundaries of the ice pack.  There are some areas of visible water mixed through most of Beaufort and Chukchi, but compare to 2012 where nearly everything outside of 80 N had quite a lot of visible water.

Certainly strong melt in the ESS for the next few days, but I don't think enough to catch up.  Also worth watching is the other side of the Laptev bite where I suspect the ice is thin and we may see some action from low pressure systems tearing things up, but also cold air brought by the low may limit melt there.

The weather turned bad at the beginning of July in 2010 and at first we overtook 2014.  But after only a little over a week of low pressure domianted pattern we have suddenly fallen behind 2010, which is why I've revised my expectations of September ice minimum substantially upwards.
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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2568 on: July 29, 2014, 08:18:40 AM »
How slow or fast does everyone think that large relatively healthy looking slab of ice will go in what direction the next 10 days?
I think the ice is pretty vulnerable, but a week or 10 days isn't a lot of time to melt a swath of ice that's that vast. My guess is that we'll see the the coastline clear out quite a bit, and the bulk of the ESS will drop in concentration, but not disappear. If the heat and clear conditions last the rest of the August, well, that's a different story.

The open water in the Laptev, though, could expand considerably. I could see it breaking through to 85N if the wind and heat materialize as predicted. Longer term, I think it will be hard for it to maintain its beachhead in the north without continuing favorable winds -- there's just too much ice that can drift in and close it up.


F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2569 on: July 29, 2014, 08:56:04 AM »
I would consider this statement nonsensical and not properly backed up.
...
Nonsensical? Sure, possible, if your senses differ much from mine. Not properly backed up? Yep, true, it wasn't. Hopefully it's ok, just a forum, you know.

...
From this absorption spectrum:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/18/Absorption_spectrum_of_liquid_water.png
We see that water blocks everything that is non-visible light. ...
_You_ see that. What i see is that "... /cm" part about vertical axis. Thin enough layer of water is transparent to IR. This means IR photons travel within water, once emitted, for some noticeable fraction of centimeter. Then they get absorbed alright, then emitted again to travel few more bits, etc. Please correct me if my school physics are wrong, thank you.

... Further you would have to show that the resonances of methane still exist when dissolved in water, which imho is not at all clear. ...
1st, not all methane is actually dissolved if it's _over_saturation. 2nd, some still exist, i think, otherwise measurement of dissolved methane content by IR laser would probably be impossble? Yet, http://www.aslo.org/lomethods/free/2012/0560.html .

...
Conclusion is rather: It just does not matter how much methane is trapped in water, apart from maybe heat from biological processes. And concerning the atmosphere there are measurements - show us that it is significantly higher than in the past years. I doubt that too.
Seems you doubt everything. Why, i like, it's the right thing. However, it was not my intent to "convince" anybody or "proove" anything. I just answered a particular question describing what i think on a particular subject. It may be very wrong, - i am only a human, and humans tend to make mistakes. The link i've provided in the earlier message is about observations and measurements, but about measurements which i did not make - other humans made them, and they did not give results to me on a silver plate.

I am really sorry for them. How dare they not to handle me all their results... Real-time. Unacceptable! :D :D

P.S. Oh, and your "conclusion" is telling. You do not understand even a quarter of all existing mechanisms through which methane changes physical and chemical properties of ocean water and athmosphere - you don't understand them, because nobody does - not you, not me, not very best specialists, because there are lots of complex interactions modern science can't properly model, can't even properly observe and quantify. But you already "conclude" that methane "just does not matter". Sigh, i wonder why exactly i am wasting my, your and others' time typing this - it won't help, i bet. Ok, outta here...
« Last Edit: July 29, 2014, 09:20:05 AM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

plinius

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2570 on: July 29, 2014, 11:24:06 AM »
_You_ see that. What i see is that "... /cm" part about vertical axis. Thin enough layer of water is transparent to IR. This means IR photons travel within water, once emitted, for some noticeable fraction of centimeter. Then they get absorbed alright, then emitted again to travel few more bits, etc. Please correct me if my school physics are wrong, thank you.
Recommend getting involved with radiation transport, though you have a good start. length there is the scale on which the transmitted light has been reduced to 1/2.7. In a water layer, in particular in the arctic (water has near constant temperature), everything below decimeter scale will be negligible, since the emitted radiation reflects just the weighted temperature profile. So, forget about greenhouse effects in water.
1st, not all methane is actually dissolved if it's _over_saturation. 2nd, some still exist, i think, otherwise measurement of dissolved methane content by IR laser would probably be impossble? Yet, http://www.aslo.org/lomethods/free/2012/0560.html .
To 1st: Over-saturation should not matter, since still dissolved, if it is bubbles, things change. 2nd: Yes, it is detectable, but it will not really matter. Why? Low temperature contrast. Get acquainted with spectral line formation.

Seems you doubt everything. Why, i like, it's the right thing. However, it was not my intent to "convince" anybody or "proove" anything. I just answered a particular question describing what i think on a particular subject. It may be very wrong, - i am only a human, and humans tend to make mistakes. The link i've provided in the earlier message is about observations and measurements, but about measurements which i did not make - other humans made them, and they did not give results to me on a silver plate.
Doubting everything is what a scientist should do. The point is that your proposition/argumentation is nonsense. You cannot go there and just claim (with a flawed argumentation) that the freed methane has a local effect (on a global scale it will). This kind of unfounded, pseudo-scientific statements is exactly what denialists do and even worse, you present them with an open flank if you write garbage.

P.S. Oh, and your "conclusion" is telling. You do not understand even a quarter of all existing mechanisms through which methane changes physical and chemical properties of ocean water and athmosphere - you don't understand them, because nobody does - not you, not me, not very best specialists, because there are lots of complex interactions modern science can't properly model, can't even properly observe and quantify. But you already "conclude" that methane "just does not matter". Sigh, i wonder why exactly i am wasting my, your and others' time typing this - it won't help, i bet. Ok, outta here...
I do not know why you are vainly ranting like that, but sorry, I did calculate radiatiion transport problems. And no, radiation transport is basically solved in modern science. Where models currently fail is certainly not simple radiation problems (but feedback, uncovered physics). Also, you made the claims, not me. If it is too complicated for you, as you write, maybe next time formulate a question instead?

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2571 on: July 29, 2014, 11:35:07 AM »
F.Tinoli - I tend to agree that the dissolved methane and even that which reaches the sea surface will have negligible effect, you raise valid points to ponder.

The Behavior of the Arctic as a system depends heavily multiple buffers, each of which interacts with other components of it in (heretofore) unfathomably complex ways. While we understand some of the physical limits - spectrum absorption, black body radiation, the physical properties of water and gases, what have you - we are only just beginning to understand how they interact in the context of Arctic climate.

The buffering particularly of heat is cruicial, particularly in the uptake and release of it by ice and sea water revolving around freezing.  The steady decline in ice volume combined importantly with the increase in sensible heat available in the basin most of us believe is driving the system steadily to an ice free state. What has thrown us off is not understanding the contribution of small inputs - like that methane.  Open sea picks up sunlight but begets fog because there is less "room" for the heat.  More heat over land masses produces Lower atmospheric temperature gradients across latitude, leaving us with Sluggish jet stream flow, reducing ice transport and slowing the exchange of heat across ocean depth.  We all can think of others, I am sure.

Lack of buffering now means smaller transients can produce disproportionate outcomes. What may seem to us to be trivial adjustments to albedo, capture of heat, changes in in transport have higher probability of causing movement elsewhere. I agree that we should not be so quick to dismiss those small changes. At the heart of them I think are the triggers which fool us in both ways, giving us surprises like both 2013 and 2012.

(P.S., I think plinius has more than amply demonstrated, in this case, why dissolved methane is not one of those "unsettling" small changes.)
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plinius

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2572 on: July 29, 2014, 11:46:06 AM »
Regarding CH4, readings from Svalbard and the Zeppelin Observatory, might be interesting to follow in the future: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,41.msg32331.html#msg32331
Graph from 0601-0729 attached.

Indeed, though I'd suspect that it is quite far from significant emissions, which mostly appear to emanate from the Siberian shelf. Think, this is better (there are some satellite measurements)
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/airs-and-amsu-trace-gases-co2-co-ch4-o3-level-3
or that ;-)
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/m1/rp/mrm_t1.html
Not aware by the way of a good estimate of shelf emissions via satellite measurements. Does anyone have a good link/paper?

@jdallen: great explanation, I agree.

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2573 on: July 29, 2014, 12:53:23 PM »
That makes sense, Peter. Why don't you all just synchronize with my cache? Isn't there some app or add-on for that?  ;D
I'm sure there is. But if not, I could get a couple of Czechoslovakian hackers to throw something together for you. Cheap...  ;)

plinius

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2574 on: July 29, 2014, 01:23:09 PM »
Thanks plinius, I'm aware of the satellite measurements. The readings from Svalbard has been down for almost a year (which is implied in the other thread). Personally, I like any tool I can find and I was thinking of the newly found emissions by SWERUS-C3 from the ocean floor, and future emissions since they are increasing since ~2007 again. If they continue to increase at a higher and accelerating rate, they will be significant.

Fully agreed on that, sleepy. Just imho you need quite a bit of luck with the circulation to see those emissions in Svalbard. The satellite measurements should theoretically help tracing the source and quantifying (anyway tricky, since the arctic in spring becomes in general a giant source of methane), though I haven't seen it done yet. As said, if someone knows good literature on this, please tell.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2575 on: July 29, 2014, 02:55:15 PM »
The Laptev winds, running over 400-500 miles of open water are bound to generate a lot of fetch. That's probably the primary driver of the rapid ice edge recession we saw there over the past two days.

We've been speculating about that sort of thing here recently. The US Navy have dropped some hints that WaveWatch III will be extended into the Arctic in the not too distant future. In the meantime this is the only "Laptev swell forecast" that I'm familiar with:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-pacific-

Do you know of any others?
« Last Edit: July 29, 2014, 03:01:23 PM by Jim Hunt »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2576 on: July 29, 2014, 04:18:14 PM »
...
Useless, though. You don't see my points. I probably fail at expressing them properly, this i can agree with. My apologies for rant (if there was any). Probably bad day.

No time for any greater detail... In a vast hurry. Anyhows best wishes, sir!
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2577 on: July 29, 2014, 04:52:44 PM »
The Laptev is now filled with heat.  Will the Chukchi and Beaufort be next?

 Winds are very unfavorable today for transporting that heat into the Surrounding ice.  Not to forget the overall air-mass advecting in being warm + the sunny skies.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2578 on: July 29, 2014, 05:40:14 PM »
From my vantage point: The decent-sized wind fetch pouring into the Pacific side has got a good 48 hour run at least. For today, southerly winds are about to ring true as homage to the 2008 comeback. Some of the warm water in Laptev will push towards the ice that is fastened to Severnaya Zemlya in a southeasterly direction, then in a southerly direction next week as low pressure circulation over Barents moves the ice more counterclockwise. This may compact the ice by consolidating the low concentration ice in Laptev through rapid melt and winds backing the remaining ice into Severnaya Zemlya, and extent would draw down significantly. An ice-free Laptev looks more likely (and rather soon) with this in play. The first full week of August should still bring weakness to the Pacific side even as the lows are forecast to cover most of the Atlantic side next week. Southwesterly winds will continue on Chukchi and Beaufort. If it lasts long enough, falling below 2013 on the area and extent metrics looks to be a likely outcome. Anything falling short of that, and we could be talking about 2014 having to compete with 2005. I still favor an outcome below 2009/2013 in the end. This summer closure is starting out more similar to 2008, favoring melt.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2014, 06:07:44 PM by deep octopus »

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2579 on: July 29, 2014, 06:07:33 PM »
But then when I look at this subset of the Uni Bremen AMSRE for yesterday, I don't think I've ever seen the ice in this shape, over the whole of the Arctic before.

Are you sure you don't mean AMSR2? How about this time last year?


Correct and incorrect.  I mean AMSR-E SSMIS and AMSR2.

Actually I'm being more subtle than looking for less ice and huge areas of dark bordered by solid white.  If you look at my original image from AMSR2, you will see that almost no area on the entire pack is pure white.  It's almost entirely shades of grey.

This is what I'm talking about. The health of the pack as a whole and the fact that almost the entire cap is now a loosely floating flotilla of independent ice with some area of water inbetween it.

Honestly I don't think I've seen that before at this stage of the year.  It's not reflecting melt ponding, it is clear from the lance modis that it is reflecting actual moving ice split up from packs.

To me that is a continuation of the decline and an escalation of the breakup of the ice.  Just waiting for one good (in terms of melt, disastrous in terms of ice), year to come along and finish it off.

I'm not looking at the picture to see how bad the melt is any more.  I'm trying to understand how badly the ice has been impacted overall and what that might mean in subtle signs which signify the state of things to come.  I know it's not quite the focus of this thread, but it is what I'm looking for.

A lot has been said here about it being, now, 100% insolation from now to September. But that's not totally true is it?  It's about insolation, weather, wind, sea currents, sea temperature and, very much so, the state of the ice which is subjected to those impacts.

I believe that the mix is what is causing all the surprises....  But that's just a guess..

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2580 on: July 29, 2014, 06:09:23 PM »
From my vantage point: The decent-sized wind fetch pouring into the Pacific side has got a good 48 hour run at least. For today, southerly winds are about to ring true as homage to the 2008 comeback. Some of the warm water in Laptev will push towards the ice that is fastened to Severnaya Zemlya in a southeasterly direction, then in a southerly direction next week as low pressure circulation over Barents moves the ice more counterclockwise. This may compact the ice by consolidating the low concentration ice in Laptev through rapid melt and winds backing the remaining ice into Severnaya Zemlya, and extent would draw down significantly. An ice-free Laptev looks more likely (and rather soon) with this in play. The first full week of August should still bring weakness to the Pacific side even as the lows are forecast to cover most of the Atlantic side next week. Southwesterly winds will continue on Chukchi and Beaufort. If it lasts long enough, falling below 2013 on the area and extent metrics looks to be a likely outcome. Anything falling short of that, and we could be talking about 2014 having to compete with 2005. I still favor an outcome below 2009/2013 in the end. This summer closure is starting out more similar to 2008, favoring melt.

Agree completely.  We even have a head start on 2008 this year weather wise.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2581 on: July 29, 2014, 08:17:11 PM »
I think it will depend on how the ESS responds to a week+ of WAA with the Laptev and CAB also being hit by the winds.

How the ESS responds the next 7-10 days will tell us a lot about it's durability going into the last 3/4ths of August.



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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2582 on: July 29, 2014, 09:16:41 PM »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2583 on: July 29, 2014, 11:28:58 PM »

Actually I'm being more subtle than looking for less ice and huge areas of dark bordered by solid white.  If you look at my original image from AMSR2, you will see that almost no area on the entire pack is pure white.  It's almost entirely shades of grey.


Its never pure white, even in winter.  Even going back to the 80s.

This is what I'm talking about. The health of the pack as a whole and the fact that almost the entire cap is now a loosely floating flotilla of independent ice with some area of water inbetween it.

Its been like that every summer since I've been watching (2008).  Comparing IJIS views for same day shows that the pack has not been as solid at this time of year since 2009.  Currently MODIS shows the majority of the pack as being quite solidly jammed together with almost no water visible in between the individual pieces of ice.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2584 on: July 29, 2014, 11:49:22 PM »
Its been like that every summer since I've been watching (2008).  Comparing IJIS views for same day shows that the pack has not been as solid at this time of year since 2009.  Currently MODIS shows the majority of the pack as being quite solidly jammed together with almost no water visible in between the individual pieces of ice.
[/quote]

I tend to support Michael on this matter, as an avid icewatcher the last 5 Seasons. In a very short timeframe ice North of 80' degrees will again be protected by Shorter days and less insolation,  so to achieve a true nosedive onwards we must depend upon some freakish tornados and lows, crushing the ice and at the same time make saltier and hotter water upwell from the Arctic Depths....

We better stick around...lurking, mostly :P
My fancy for ice & glaciers started in 1995:-).

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2585 on: July 30, 2014, 12:03:09 AM »
I'm chiefly looking at sea ice area and extent and the August 7 date. If we're not below 2013 values by that time, it is far less likely that we will break below 2013 by end season.

We appear to have a relatively melt favorable pattern emerging for some regions, so we should see values drop at a decent pace during this week. We had a decent ramp up in melt rates over the past few days, then today's readings look like a slow-down.

As for comparative weather, I'd like to hear people's thoughts on how 2014 compares to past seasons. I know we ended up with a late onset of above freezing temps above the 80 North line. Other than 2013, when was the last time this happened?

As for changes less related to weather, but more related to climate, we have quite a lot of fresh water now at the surface. This would tend to keep the high Arctic cooler during summer by limiting ocean to atmosphere heat transfer and by keeping more of the warm water at depth. I see this as more of a factor going forward, especially with increasing river flows and GIS melt.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2586 on: July 30, 2014, 12:07:34 AM »
Today in MODIS visible there's a very good view of the ice north of ESS, if anybody wants to assess how it is.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2587 on: July 30, 2014, 01:07:56 AM »
The 29th hasn't been counted yet but the ice is getting plowed North in spots and eradicated on the edges.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2588 on: July 30, 2014, 01:15:36 AM »

I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2589 on: July 30, 2014, 02:01:00 AM »
Its been like that every summer since I've been watching (2008).  Comparing IJIS views for same day shows that the pack has not been as solid at this time of year since 2009.  Currently MODIS shows the majority of the pack as being quite solidly jammed together with almost no water visible in between the individual pieces of ice.

I just reviewed the Lance modis images for yesterday.  There is a lot of cloud, but still, you can see what the makeup is.  I don't see what you're saying but I'll take it as read that I don't have as wide a view as many others.

I believe I picked up on Uni Bremen AMSR-E in 2003, might have been 2002 but I don't think so.

What I see is that the entire swathe of ice from Svalbard, in the CAB and to the coast, wrapping round the pole where it is a bit more compacted, right up to the East Siberian sea, is a loose aggregation of ice with either incredibly small/thin interconnecting ice or large areas of open water. Then I see the Chuchki through to most of the Beafort being similar.

Let me be clear. I don't see this as changing much of anything with area or extent this year.  What I'm looking at is what will happen with this ice in 2015 - 2017.  I don't see it forming solid pack in the way it did.  Sorry but that's what I see.

To make it clearer, I don't see most of this as solid pack.  There is too much black, which, on the ground corresponds to water.  It's all over the place.  If you were to try and walk over that you would fail unless you were carrying your own boat.

As I say, I don't believe I've seen this kind of separation before.  I may be wrong and I'm willing to be wrong.  It's just a feeling that what we are seeing is not re-growth but re-distribution in cooler times.

It was just an observation of what I see as a change in the way the pack is holding together.  Something which might be due to the lack of wind for compaction or something else.

I'll leave it at that.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2590 on: July 30, 2014, 03:01:45 AM »
Toasty times in Nunavut. 30C forecast for Kugaaruk Airport on Thursday, which would be a new record for any date.

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-13_metric_e.html

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2591 on: July 30, 2014, 03:57:10 AM »
Friv will go down as the greatest ice messiah on the planet in 2014, of the biggest wonk in 10yrs. 

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2592 on: July 30, 2014, 03:59:33 AM »
North of the Laptev is really in trouble.  The CAB is about to get the heat and Southerly winds.   Ouch.


I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2593 on: July 30, 2014, 04:02:42 AM »
North of the Laptev is really in trouble.  The CAB is about to get the heat and Southerly winds.   Ouch.
North of the Laptev, might we be seeing the effect of warm surface water being driven under the ice there by wind?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2594 on: July 30, 2014, 04:27:10 AM »
North of the Laptev is really in trouble.  The CAB is about to get the heat and Southerly winds.   Ouch.
North of the Laptev, might we be seeing the effect of warm surface water being driven under the ice there by wind?


I don't know but the open water area is pretty much now bordering on the Laptev bite where up-welling is.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2595 on: July 30, 2014, 04:46:36 AM »
North of the Laptev is really in trouble.  The CAB is about to get the heat and Southerly winds.   Ouch.
North of the Laptev, might we be seeing the effect of warm surface water being driven under the ice there by wind?


I don't know but the open water area is pretty much now bordering on the Laptev bite where up-welling is.

Considering that, and the concentration you showed above, I wonder  if we'll see a disconnected expanse of MYI in the ESS isolated from the main pack?
« Last Edit: July 30, 2014, 08:04:46 AM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2596 on: July 30, 2014, 04:57:43 AM »
that is a great question.  There is no doubt thinner ice in the 75-80N range by the ESS than the thicker 1.5-2M MYI over the central ESS.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2597 on: July 30, 2014, 06:26:58 AM »
Jaxa says -110K for today (July 29). It'll be interesting to see if the 100K drops are sustainable.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2598 on: July 30, 2014, 07:10:41 AM »


00z GFS looks to be forming a decent PV anomaly around day 7-8.  But up until then the Pacific side gets the warmth really good.
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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