Yes Gray-Wolf that is precisely what I was thinking. It seems post-2007 Springs always start with approximately same (low) ice volume. Then, if conditions lead to warmer Arctic (more probable as AGW effect increases) then Arctic amplification leads to accelerated melting, slow-down of jet stream, blocking patters, etc that the models can't predict because they assume ice is in a static twentieth century state, and don't account for the accelerated melting well. Vice versa, if Spring conditions lead to colder Arctic, it might happen that cloudy weather, snow, etc., negative feedbacks caused somehow by the worse ice conditions, lead to the opposite.
I am a believer of the theory that the Arctic passed a tipping point of an hysteretic system and it is in a new branch, but this branch is not a soft ride, it seems very dynamic, a bumpy ride. Will one of these perturbations bring the Arctic back to the previous branch?. I believe not, but if it does, it wont be for very long, as CO2 incrases steadily.