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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2600 on: July 30, 2014, 09:33:57 AM »

Actually I'm being more subtle than looking for less ice and huge areas of dark bordered by solid white.  If you look at my original image from AMSR2, you will see that almost no area on the entire pack is pure white.  It's almost entirely shades of grey.


Its never pure white, even in winter.  Even going back to the 80s.
...
NeilT is right about ice being darker than most expectations would have it be. It has nothing to do with the fact that no ice is ever pure white. Here's one nicely written piece about it: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/05/dark-snow-speeding-glacier-melting-rising-sea-levels .
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2601 on: July 30, 2014, 09:55:35 AM »

NeilT is right about ice being darker than most expectations would have it be. It has nothing to do with the fact that no ice is ever pure white. Here's one nicely written piece about it: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/05/dark-snow-speeding-glacier-melting-rising-sea-levels .

Yes there is a long term trend towards more soot.  There is also a long term trend towards warmer conditions, thinner ice and less of it.  That doesn't mean that the ice cannot be in a better condition than recent years due to noise about that trend.  Otherwise you'd have to accept that the recovery in 2013 was meaningful and global warming really did stop.

This year I've seen some ice around Chukchi that looks a little grey and may be affected by soot or dust etc.  But I'm sure I've seen worse in other years.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2602 on: July 30, 2014, 11:53:39 AM »

NeilT is right about ice being darker than most expectations would have it be. It has nothing to do with the fact that no ice is ever pure white. Here's one nicely written piece about it: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/05/dark-snow-speeding-glacier-melting-rising-sea-levels .

... That doesn't mean that the ice cannot be in a better condition than recent years due to noise about that trend.  ...
This year I've seen some ice around Chukchi that looks a little grey and may be affected by soot or dust etc.  But I'm sure I've seen worse in other years.
Yes, of course. I didn't say ice can't be in a better condition once in a while. Trend matters, though. I merely pointed to the relation between the trend and earlier reported "rather dark" state of the ice presently observed. I think such relation 1) exists and 2) important.
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2603 on: July 30, 2014, 01:34:53 PM »
I was supposed to post this yesterday so these are the delta maps for the 27th, but the difference shouldn't be too big. Still there are smaller areas of Laptev and far northern Farm which are ahead of all three years (2007, 2012 and 2013), while Barents is lagging far behind. In other regions the interannual variability is very big, though the general ice concentration in Chukchi, ESS and CAA appears high even compared to 2013.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2604 on: July 30, 2014, 09:29:17 PM »
The models have gone towards are more favorable medium range pattern.

This would go a long way  towards this year being close or closer to 2013 at the end.

However the pattern will have to have staying power.

2013 had some amazing weather for the ice to finish the season.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2605 on: July 30, 2014, 11:51:10 PM »
This happens a lot. Just when things start getting under way (and effects start to appear on the graphs), the weather switches again. These transitions always slow things down.

I'm curious to see what August brings and what happens with all that MYI in the Beaufort.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2606 on: July 31, 2014, 12:40:19 AM »
When you look at how relatively cool the last two summers have been.

It's not good that the ice has barely responded in growth.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2607 on: July 31, 2014, 01:59:25 AM »
Nice shot of the Canadian Basin


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2608 on: July 31, 2014, 02:41:53 AM »
This happens a lot. Just when things start getting under way (and effects start to appear on the graphs), the weather switches again. These transitions always slow things down.

I'm curious to see what August brings and what happens with all that MYI in the Beaufort.

This is something I really don't get. When people warn of the classic dipole situ coming along, I am always skeptical because time after time (although perhaps its only happened over the last couple of years) a nightmare scenario gets downgraded. Even now the bad weather is only going to last a couple of days before LP returns to the centre, ofc a few days might well be enough to cause a lot of damage but its a long way off what was predicted a few days ago on both ECM and GFS.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2609 on: July 31, 2014, 02:56:32 AM »
The models were always (mostly?) showing a few days of really bad weather before low pressure started to come back again.

We are currently at about the peak in my opinion, with conditions gradually forecast to ease until at day 7 on GFS we have about the weakest pattern possible for melting ice - a wide weak centrally located low, so cloud, minimal wind, and minimal import of heat from outside the Arctic.  ECMWF looks a little more mixed up.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2610 on: July 31, 2014, 03:09:38 AM »
The models were always (mostly?) showing a few days of really bad weather before low pressure started to come back again.

We are currently at about the peak in my opinion, with conditions gradually forecast to ease until at day 7 on GFS we have about the weakest pattern possible for melting ice - a wide weak centrally located low, so cloud, minimal wind, and minimal import of heat from outside the Arctic.  ECMWF looks a little more mixed up.

Sure, I agree but you have to admit things are looking less serious than they once were; the LP is far more central in the medium term rather than being off the N coast of canada, consequently there is no real anticyclonic influence (after we get through this bad period), which wasn't the case in some of the previous model predictions. I'm just curious why the models always seem to downgrade this sort of situ, and why they are just poor in general for the arctic regions; perhaps I've answered my own question. 

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2611 on: July 31, 2014, 05:30:08 AM »
Jaxa dropped -82K.  I think the next 7 days will see an additional -500K before a stout slowdown settles in with the biggest drop either tomorrow or Friday as the CAB gets the warm Southerly flow.

2014B warmed up today to the 1.5C range the warm air moves into the CAB right now.  This air doesn't get all the way to the Southern Canadian Basin.

In the medium range I think the models are going to start showing a stronger HP during days 5-8 on the Pacific side the gradient should be stout.  Where it sets up and how long will matter.

Then how far the vortex can move towards the Beaufort side means a ton.

http://imb.crrel.usa...mil/newdata.htm

In anticipation of the ESS getting warmth this month with the dipole flow returning presumably for at least a week before September 1st.

Adding in the CAB status as well as the laptev bite region being torn up.

 
Quote
I think it's time to move my final prediction up to 4.55-4.60 mil km2 on Jaxa and 3.325-3.400 mil km2 on CT.  4.8-4.9 million NSIDC September.


5000km3 on Piomas.

If heating of the ESS ends up persisting pretty much thru mid August then I might end up jumping the gun.  The ESS has the ability to almost melt out under the right weather conditions.  The ESS/Laptev are wild cards.  But even a week or so of cold weak low heights would pretty much end that threat.



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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2612 on: July 31, 2014, 07:03:26 AM »
OMG THE 00Z GFS DID AN INCREDIBLE ABOUT FACE WITH THE PATTERN SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE.

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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2613 on: July 31, 2014, 07:16:17 AM »
We will see how real this is.  But I am not surprised ridging is coming in stronger given the NPAC arrangement.  The Scandinavian High is further South this run with that deeper cut off SE of GIS just sitting there.

We can see the blocking regime get going.





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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2614 on: July 31, 2014, 08:45:10 AM »
The Euro is a basketcase.
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2615 on: July 31, 2014, 09:30:30 AM »
This happens a lot. Just when things start getting under way (and effects start to appear on the graphs), the weather switches again. These transitions always slow things down.

I'm curious to see what August brings and what happens with all that MYI in the Beaufort.

This is something I really don't get. When people warn of the classic dipole situ coming along, I am always skeptical because time after time (although perhaps its only happened over the last couple of years) a nightmare scenario gets downgraded. Even now the bad weather is only going to last a couple of days before LP returns to the centre, ofc a few days might well be enough to cause a lot of damage but its a long way off what was predicted a few days ago on both ECM and GFS.

Maybe weather models don't model the "new normal" Arctic well, and therefore miss whatever feedback (negative or positive) the "new" Arctic induces. So, the 5-10 range forecast becomes very uncertain in melting season. Could that be one reason?

To follow that, I bet they did a poor job in 2012 and forecasted conditions for ice systematically better than what came 10 days later (well, people here probably know if that happened)

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2616 on: July 31, 2014, 11:27:33 AM »
Hi seattlerocks! I've been mulling the question of changing weather and the Jet pattern is running to a different drum these days but , because the 'theory' of Jet slowdown/sinuosity is not yet accepted the models do not get programmed with data to reflect the Jets new behaviours? This alters where both H.P. and L.P. systems end up over the 14 day period and so makes the 'fantasy island' end of the forecast less reliable than ever?

This does then impact on any WAA that we see forecast for the basin and makes it difficult to trust anything beyond 3 days.

Of course not all of the jet is equally impacted by deep troughs/pronounced ridges and so some areas 'appear' unaffected! In the UK we saw a very straight jet coming at us through Jan/Feb this past year......... courtesy of the interaction of the PV ( which you guys had) and the Atlantic!

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seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2617 on: July 31, 2014, 12:03:44 PM »
Yes Gray-Wolf that is precisely what I was thinking. It seems post-2007 Springs always start with approximately same (low) ice volume. Then, if conditions lead to warmer Arctic (more probable as AGW effect increases) then Arctic amplification leads to accelerated melting, slow-down of jet stream, blocking patters, etc that the models can't predict because they assume ice is in a static twentieth century state, and don't account for the accelerated melting well. Vice versa, if Spring conditions lead to colder Arctic, it might happen that cloudy weather, snow, etc., negative feedbacks caused somehow by the worse ice conditions, lead to the opposite.

I am a believer of the theory that the Arctic passed a tipping point of an hysteretic  system and it is in a new branch, but this branch is not a soft ride, it seems very dynamic, a bumpy ride. Will one of these perturbations bring the Arctic back to the previous branch?. I believe not, but if it does, it wont be for very long, as CO2 incrases steadily.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2618 on: July 31, 2014, 03:15:35 PM »
OMG THE 00Z GFS DID AN INCREDIBLE ABOUT FACE WITH THE PATTERN SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE.

Chill, Friv, chill!

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2619 on: July 31, 2014, 04:11:47 PM »
Pardon me my foreigness, gentlemen... What "about face" means? Am i correct to assume it means "turn 180 degrees" sort of thing?

If the answer would be "yes", then i think Friv won't chill, if he suspects the same thing i do. Suspicions are not to be published, i believe. So he won't describe (lacking definite proof), nor would i. Reason enough to spill some upper case though, that's for sure.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2620 on: July 31, 2014, 06:10:39 PM »
RE Gray Wolf's thoughts...

We have a river of air running from about 25 N in the Pacific, directly over the pole and down to the N Atlantic just above England. The shot is from yesterday, but the pattern remains in place today:

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/jet-stream-so-weak-winds-are-running-from-pacific-to-atlantic-across-the-north-pole/

We wouldn't have this pattern without severe weakness in the Jet Stream. A rupture over the Bering and on past 80 N driven in part by the flood of warm air issuing over the ESS. Essentially, you have a daisy chain of lows just catapulting the Pacific air over the pole.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2621 on: July 31, 2014, 06:20:50 PM »
Those lows (one in the Gulf of Alaska and one in the Bering Sea) are two apparent culprits in the daisy chain. If those don't weaken soon, how long can this pattern be expected to go on? Those winds are clocking nearly 30 km/hr as they pour into the Chukchi. This is at least enough to generate small waves, and I'm sure with the fetch size, the waves lapping on the ice edge are to some degree larger.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2622 on: July 31, 2014, 06:29:35 PM »
Pardon me my foreigness, gentlemen... What "about face" means? Am i correct to assume it means "turn 180 degrees" sort of thing?
Exactly (it's a drill command given to marching soldiers to turn around).
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2623 on: July 31, 2014, 06:44:59 PM »
Toasty times in Nunavut. 30C forecast for Kugaaruk Airport on Thursday, which would be a new record for any date.

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-13_metric_e.html

Not quite 30, but currently just 1 degree from the 22 C record daily high.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2624 on: July 31, 2014, 06:47:38 PM »
The GFS is still splitting the PV anomaly with one piece dropping into Canada.  Thus ridging establishes itself over the Pacific side slowly sliding to the Beaufort region.  The other PV anomaly is weakened and kept at bay over the Kara/Laptev side of the arctic. 

The land based Siberian SLP is very warm and pulls in very warm air with the feed between it and the ridge.

The end result is a steady stream of warmth into the Pacific basin as well as favorable compaction winds at times.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2625 on: July 31, 2014, 06:50:35 PM »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2626 on: July 31, 2014, 06:53:58 PM »
August NSIDC Extent losses graph attached.

High August loss years: 2004, 2008, 2012.
Low August loss years: 2006, 2010 .... 2014?

Periodicity is four years, if this is real and not coincidental. The difference between high and low years is largely concentrated in Chukchi and the ESS - I suspect it may be real and if so is related to MYI injections into Chukchi and the ESS, such as in 2014. Could it be a result of typical lifetime of MYI declining to around 4 years?

Anyway. The persistence of ice in the ESS and Chukchi is probably due to the winter/spring influx of MYI, it will not decline much in August. Using the declines in August in the years 2006, 2010 nd 2013, September daily minimum extent would be 5.4, 4.7, 5.2. This range of values tallies with a histogram of predictions using past August extent losses (1979 to 2013). 2014 will exceed every year since 2007, whether it exceeds 2013 or not, I give even odds.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2627 on: July 31, 2014, 07:06:02 PM »
I think if the weather looks like this then we will be around or above 2013. 

2013 required amazing ice retention weather.  2010 had good ice retention weather from early July to early August before a dipole broke out and 2010 managed to end up pretty low.  Especially area wise.





If the weather looks like this we will be around 2010:

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2628 on: July 31, 2014, 07:12:22 PM »
Friv,

We're seeing weather and ice state play off.

2013 - poor melt weather.
2010 (and 2014) large MYI influx into Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS.

Despite better weather than 2013, I think the MYI in Chukchi and ESS will overcome the weather we're likely to have through August, which will probably be better for melt than 2013.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2629 on: July 31, 2014, 07:16:02 PM »
Toasty times in Nunavut. 30C forecast for Kugaaruk Airport on Thursday, which would be a new record for any date.

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-13_metric_e.html

Not quite 30, but currently just 1 degree from the 22 C record daily high.

Now at 23 C, a record.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2630 on: July 31, 2014, 07:19:42 PM »
We'll see.  The MYI there isn't very old or very wide in area.  The MYI in the CAB in-spite of it's age is decimated.

By CAB.  I mean Canadian Basin.  The Southern Arctic basin ice is better than it has been since at least 2010.



« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 07:27:55 PM by Frivolousz21 »
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a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2631 on: July 31, 2014, 07:21:25 PM »
How bad for the NW passage is rain with 54km/hr Easterly winds with dews in the 5-6C range?

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html

I'd think that would be pretty awful for the ice.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2632 on: July 31, 2014, 07:28:26 PM »
Earlier in the year I put it forward as a large factor this season, then was persuaded against it. I'm pretty sure I should have stuck to my guns.

We'll see by the end of August.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2633 on: July 31, 2014, 07:29:19 PM »
How bad for the NW passage is rain with 54km/hr Easterly winds with dews in the 5-6C range?

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html

I'd think that would be pretty awful for the ice.

Who needs melt ponds when you have 1-2 cm of 6 C rain?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2634 on: July 31, 2014, 07:35:19 PM »
Earlier in the year I put it forward as a large factor this season, then was persuaded against it. I'm pretty sure I should have stuck to my guns.

We'll see by the end of August.

No one can predict the weather.  From one extreme to another the base state of the ice can swing from 2012 or lower mins back up to 2013 maybe even 2009. 

And this is just weather from June to August.  If this year saw 2007, 2011, or 2012 weather the ice would be with those years. 


2010 would have melted out the ESS for sure with 2012 and 2007 weather regardless of the MYI. 

2010 had about a 40 day period of PV dominated reverse flow or it would of smashed 2007 at the time.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2635 on: July 31, 2014, 07:43:54 PM »
The GFS has changed it tune now for 3 runs in a row.  Now we wait and see if the Euro holds serve with it's basket-case runs, goes back to the dominant PV or gets on board with the GFS.



I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2636 on: July 31, 2014, 07:45:17 PM »
How bad for the NW passage is rain with 54km/hr Easterly winds with dews in the 5-6C range?

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html

I'd think that would be pretty awful for the ice.

Who needs melt ponds when you have 1-2 cm of 6 C rain?

That sounds like a prompt 10-15CM top melt loss.  You also need to keep in mind, this will create massive amounts of run off, at close to the same temperature, in close proximity to the same ice that's being washed over by the rain. 

The islands recently across much of the CAA have enjoyed temperatures as high as the mid to upper teens.  A lot of *that* is probably being taken up by permafrost, but that still leaves a lot of heat available to get carried to the ice by runoff. The NWP is a lot more compact than the arctic basin, and has more of its surface in close proximity to land.  It also doesn't have the greater volume of water the Arctic Basin has to act as a heat sink.   That suggests to me that increased runoff will shift the energy balance in bad ways for the ice.

Hmmm.... Normally the region is really dry - less than 25CM of rain equivalent a year as I recall, and a good slug of that in winter.  I wonder how those numbers are stacking up this year?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2637 on: July 31, 2014, 08:03:08 PM »
I was right... Resolute is full-on desert - averages 6CM of precipitation rain a year.  Much arrives during June/July/August, but 2CM would be 1/3 of what they get annually.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?stnID=1776&lang=e&StationName=Resolute&SearchType=Contains&stnNameSubmit=go&dCode=1&dispBack=1

Edit Their average snowfall is 111CM - again, about 6CM rain equivalent, so its dry, *really* dry - as dry or dryer than much of the Great Basin in the US (think Nevada/Utah)
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 08:09:50 PM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2638 on: July 31, 2014, 08:17:33 PM »
Another useful reference map for pondering precipitation in the CAA

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/16-201-x/2007000/m007_en.gif

Edit: July rainfall (sorry for the english units).  Looks like rainfall is high but not extraordinary - about 50% higher than normal for the month.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CXRB/2014/7/31/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 08:24:59 PM by jdallen »
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2639 on: July 31, 2014, 08:21:31 PM »
I was right... Resolute is full-on desert - averages 6CM of precipitation rain a year.  Much arrives during June/July/August, but 2CM would be 1/3 of what they get annually.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?stnID=1776&lang=e&StationName=Resolute&SearchType=Contains&stnNameSubmit=go&dCode=1&dispBack=1

Edit Their average snowfall is 111CM - again, about 6CM rain equivalent, so its dry, *really* dry - as dry or dryer than much of the Great Basin in the US (think Nevada/Utah)

Resolute EC website is down. Did you crash it?? Or maybe flooded...  ;)
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2640 on: July 31, 2014, 08:40:34 PM »
Earlier in the year I put it forward as a large factor this season, then was persuaded against it. I'm pretty sure I should have stuck to my guns.

We'll see by the end of August.

No one can predict the weather.  From one extreme to another the base state of the ice can swing from 2012 or lower mins back up to 2013 maybe even 2009. 

And this is just weather from June to August.  If this year saw 2007, 2011, or 2012 weather the ice would be with those years. 


2010 would have melted out the ESS for sure with 2012 and 2007 weather regardless of the MYI. 

2010 had about a 40 day period of PV dominated reverse flow or it would of smashed 2007 at the time.

?????

2010 had a strong dipole anomaly in August. Link to NCEP/NCAR - slow, allow time to work.

2010 was warmer aloft (implying more heat flow from mid lattitudes) than 2012.

2000   -0.633
2001   -0.067
2002   -0.214
2003   -0.290
2004   -0.314
2005   -0.381
2006   -0.358
2007    0.441
2008    0.446
2009   -0.444
2010    0.150
2011    0.539
2012   -0.420
2013   -0.749
August temperature north of 70degN at 850mb (NCEP/NCAR).

2010 had a persistent low concentration region of ice in the ESS and Chukchi.
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2010/aug/asi-n6250-20100801-v5_visual.png
By the end of July this had still not melted.
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2010/aug/asi-n6250-20100831-v5_visual.png
Note that at present concentration over much of the ESS is still higher than in 2010 at the start of June.
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2data/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2014/jul/asi-AMSR2-n6250-20140730-v5_visual.png

Robert Marston

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2641 on: July 31, 2014, 08:52:06 PM »
Those lows (one in the Gulf of Alaska and one in the Bering Sea) are two apparent culprits in the daisy chain. If those don't weaken soon, how long can this pattern be expected to go on? Those winds are clocking nearly 30 km/hr as they pour into the Chukchi. This is at least enough to generate small waves, and I'm sure with the fetch size, the waves lapping on the ice edge are to some degree larger.

In my opinion, the warm air invasion and Russian side/ Canadian side temp differential is spinning up those lows. In my view, the continued warm air flood over the ESS could sustain the pattern. I think this is why we see a 'flip' in the models. What's left of the polar vortex in the region of 80 N is undergoing disruption/collapse which facilitates the Pacific to Atlantic flow. The pattern is unstable, however, and the low/cold air mass, will want to bounce around a lot. Think of what happens to a top as it spins down. This may well be one of the reasons the models have had difficulty this year.

I also think the relative cold above 80 N is due to a combination of Jet stream retreat and more fresh water insulation at the surface.

With regards to beating out 2013, I agree that if we continue to see warm storms over the Siberian side and ridging over the Canadian side, then we have a much stronger shot with likely something between 2010 and 2013. If the pattern flips back, it's closer to 2013 or possibly between 2013 and 2005.

With regards to Friv's observation of 48 mph winds, rain and 6 C temps in the CAA, that looks like a sea ice wrecker there.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2642 on: July 31, 2014, 09:10:33 PM »
It is ALL guesswork in the SHORT time-frame.  The intermediate and long term direction is clear and unequivocal.

In fact....I would "suggest" that ALL "levels" of where the ice might end up at the end of melt season are still "in play"....and that includes a possible (but not likely) new record low ice extent.

It is all up to WEATHER at this point.  The table is set over the coming years for the ice to disappear, and the weather will eventually take care of it.......SOONER rather than later (sooner meaning by the end of melt season 2016).

We have ice that is not in great shape......we have winds that are doing things they have not done in the past.....we have increasing amounts of soot from wildfires.....we have oceans that are continuing to warm.

Tick....tick....tick....tick.....



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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2643 on: July 31, 2014, 11:42:07 PM »
I know 2010 had a dipole anomaly in August and in June.  I posted the August chart earlier.

But it had a long hiatus in season from that kind of weather.

From the start of July to the end of the first week of August 2010 had a predominant PV anomaly.

I am just saying 2010 had a long break mid Summer with good ice retention conditions. 



that was in-between two great melt patterns.


June:




And the last part of the season:



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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2644 on: July 31, 2014, 11:49:42 PM »
Both the Euro and GFS have strong Pacific side ridging in the medium range.  Pretty much now thru then.  If this happens ice loss will accelerate for sure on this side of the arctic.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2645 on: July 31, 2014, 11:59:48 PM »
Toasty times in Nunavut. 30C forecast for Kugaaruk Airport on Thursday, which would be a new record for any date.

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-13_metric_e.html

Not quite 30, but currently just 1 degree from the 22 C record daily high.

Now at 23 C, a record.
Kugaaruk is up to 26 C, smashing the daily record and closing in on the all-time July record of 27.5 C.

Tomorrow may be Pond Inlet's turn, with a forecast high of 21 C, compared to a normals (today) of 8C, daily record (today) of 15 C, August record of 19 C (Aug 11, 2006), and all-time record of 22 C (July 11, 1991).

Last (nearly) cloud-free WorldView of the area: http://1.usa.gov/1zAx96i
http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-25_metric_e.html
http://weather.gc.ca/almanac/almanac_e.html?id=2403201
http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?stnID=1774&lang=e&StationName=pond+inlet&SearchType=Contains&stnNameSubmit=go&dCode=4&dispBack=1
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2646 on: August 01, 2014, 01:36:02 AM »
18z GFS takes the return to dipole even further.  Here we go again.



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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2647 on: August 01, 2014, 01:40:32 AM »
Barrow, Alaska shows 10°C this afternoon, similar forecast for tomorrow, no freeze in the 10-day forecast. Even if it is multiyear ice in that area, how long can it hold on?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2648 on: August 01, 2014, 01:50:32 AM »
August NSIDC Extent losses graph attached.

High August loss years: 2004, 2008, 2012.
Low August loss years: 2006, 2010 .... 2014?
It's a little hard to predict these things, and searching for patterns will drive one batty. For instance, the high August melt years of 04 and 08 started with relatively more ice (8.3m and 7.4m) that the slow years that followed each (05 and 06, with 7.3 and 7.4, and 09 and 10, with 7.0 and 6.9). So one could argue that since we're starting with a lot of ice (relatively), we should see a lot of melt. On the other hand, the very high August melt years are often followed by two slow melt Augusts. Except when they're not (07/08, for example). So we could be looking at only -1.5m. And, of course, the weather probably plays as big a role as the state of the ice and, while not exactly random, adds a lot of uncertainty.

Statistically, that plot makes August melt look like a bi-modal distribution with means somewhere around -1.5m and -2.25. But there are far too few data points to support that conclusion. The only thing I think one could say for sure is that the trend is downward, arguing for more melt every year, but with a pretty big variance superimposed.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2649 on: August 01, 2014, 02:06:57 AM »
18z GFS takes the return to dipole even further.  Here we go again.





You'll want to keep an eye on that low forming off Irkutsk...