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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2650 on: August 01, 2014, 02:46:40 AM »
I think with what the models show the biggest factors to watch is the ocean to ice heat transport.  A lot of heat will be moved into the water around the Chuchki, ESS, and Laptev thru the period.

We have already seen the impact in the Laptev region with the ice over the 80-85N area there quickly falling apart.

The Chukchi and ESS are very shallow.  Between the surface heating, winds, whatever solar comes, and warm waters and possible waves at times we may see a methodical thrashing of the ice in these areas. 

I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2651 on: August 01, 2014, 02:59:51 AM »
It looks like we will see another huge area drop tomorrow.

You can see the movement of the warm air mass on the concentrations.

Might be a double century tomorrow.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2652 on: August 01, 2014, 04:17:26 AM »
Toasty times in Nunavut. 30C forecast for Kugaaruk Airport on Thursday, which would be a new record for any date.

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-13_metric_e.html

Not quite 30, but currently just 1 degree from the 22 C record daily high.

Now at 23 C, a record.
Kugaaruk is up to 26 C, smashing the daily record and closing in on the all-time July record of 27.5 C.

Tomorrow may be Pond Inlet's turn, with a forecast high of 21 C, compared to a normals (today) of 8C, daily record (today) of 15 C, August record of 19 C (Aug 11, 2006), and all-time record of 22 C (July 11, 1991).

The heat will create melt ponding, but the transfer to ice will still, comparatively have limited effect on surface melt.

The key is and will still be insolation.

In the areas Friv has mentioned in the Laptev and Chukchi that may get hit over the next few days, the ice there has an additional threat - water warmed previously which is at or above 0C which will attack ice with a vengeance - and additional warm water at depth which will be stirred up by the wind.

If we have moderate sun, that can result in a lot of ice getting torn up.  Sunshine is still very key.  Without it, we'll see a lot of melt, but moderate rather than severe or worse, I expect.
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Robert Marston

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2653 on: August 01, 2014, 06:00:23 AM »
I think with what the models show the biggest factors to watch is the ocean to ice heat transport.  A lot of heat will be moved into the water around the Chuchki, ESS, and Laptev thru the period.

We have already seen the impact in the Laptev region with the ice over the 80-85N area there quickly falling apart.

The Chukchi and ESS are very shallow.  Between the surface heating, winds, whatever solar comes, and warm waters and possible waves at times we may see a methodical thrashing of the ice in these areas.

A strong storm emerging from the Bering or Russia at this time of year and all previous bets are off. This is the time of year when the old rules have changed, Friv. You should know this.

We have a three the four week storm window. All weather eyes should be out in force.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2654 on: August 01, 2014, 06:19:49 AM »
There will definitely be a lot of heat dumped into the waters around the ESS today.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2655 on: August 01, 2014, 08:51:22 AM »
There will definitely be a lot of heat dumped into the waters around the ESS today.

U of Maine (via Climate Reanalyzer) shows High pressure showing up and parking in the Chukchi over the next 48 hours.  The model has it staying indefinitely over the Chukchi/Beaufort - right straight through the week.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2656 on: August 01, 2014, 09:10:24 AM »
I figure this is worth an airing here as well as on the SWERUS-C3 thread:



Note this related news as well.

Quote
Air near the bottom of the crater contained unusually high concentrations of methane — up to 9.6%
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2657 on: August 01, 2014, 09:58:55 AM »
So is the weather really anywhere like 2013?  How come we are over 300k above 2013 in area?  How come Laptev has melted out stronger than any other year, yet the Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS seem to be lagging so far behind?  The early melt through the Bering Strait was quite fast, and faster than the last few years, yet that melt front has been very slow since it got into the Chukchi. 

2013 had very low melt on the Pacific side as well.  Weather is obviously a factor, but I can't see how the weather would cause so much more melt in Laptev than towards the Pacific.  Perhaps its just thicker multi-year ice on that side of the basin that is melting slower. 

But I am starting to think about whether something strange could be going on with ocean currents and heat distribution below the surface, resulting in more warm water in the Laptev region and colder water towards the Pacific.  I seem to remember hearing that warmer water enters from the Atlantic and then circles around towards the Pacific side via Laptev then ESS.  Perhaps low ice in this area since 2012 has meant this water is losing more heat than normal in the freezing season?  This is easy to say, but tricky as generally if there is less ice on top, the water underneath should be warmer - it may lose heat faster than a high ice year, but only until it cools down and the ice thickens to the same as a high ice year.  Unless wind driven mixing or something somehow interferes?  Perhaps a later freeze up means the freeze up happens at a stormier time of year and more heat can be lost due to wind driven mixing of the subsurface with the surface.

So warmer water from Atlantic enters towards Laptev resulting in stronger melt, but by the time it circulates further towards the Pacific its had time to go through a refreeze and become cool?
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Adam Ash

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2658 on: August 01, 2014, 11:39:58 AM »
Certainly there looks to be some unusual current activity east to west across the north face of the archipelago, as the multi-year ice seems to be streaming into the Beaufort at an incredible rate.  With the leakage thru Nares plus this westward shove of the MYI its going to be very interesting to see what's left north of Ellesmere Island for winter to build on.

ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2014_26.gif
and the root directory of weekly shots; worth a few random looks there
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/

ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2014_12.gif
Around this time (end of April) it looks like there is a current pushing north past the west end of Ellesmere Is easing the MYI off the coast and leaving if for the gyre to take away.

Time will tell.

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2659 on: August 01, 2014, 11:42:18 AM »
About striking differences in melting seasons: there are things beyond the knowledge of scientists fully dedicated to this, 50+ hours a week. So, yeah, this is beyond average Joe understanding. I think we can understand big picture concepts if well explained to us, but these gritty details. Beats me completely. Yes, this is so complex, dynamic, and beautiful. Amazing times we have all this technology openly available. I'm beginning to love just watching it.
Enough with my philosophy. Waiting impatiently for some meteorological updates.




seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2660 on: August 01, 2014, 02:30:44 PM »
Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that a lot of heat will continue being spilled from the Pacific into the Arctic for the next five days. . .

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2661 on: August 01, 2014, 02:59:53 PM »
Alert!

12 C and sunny (in Alert)!  8)

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-22_metric_e.html
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2662 on: August 01, 2014, 03:43:53 PM »
The Laptev was devastated in the Spring.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2663 on: August 01, 2014, 04:16:29 PM »
Certainly there looks to be some unusual current activity east to west across the north face of the archipelago, as the multi-year ice seems to be streaming into the Beaufort at an incredible rate.  With the leakage thru Nares plus this westward shove of the MYI its going to be very interesting to see what's left north of Ellesmere Island for winter to build on.

ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2014_26.gif
and the root directory of weekly shots; worth a few random looks there
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/

ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2014_12.gif
Around this time (end of April) it looks like there is a current pushing north past the west end of Ellesmere Is easing the MYI off the coast and leaving if for the gyre to take away.

Time will tell.

Is this really unusual current activity or could it just be evidence of how fragile the remaining MYI is north of Greenland and the CA? In the past this MYI was a sheet of massive flows and land fast ice that did not easily get pushed around.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2664 on: August 01, 2014, 05:03:42 PM »
The Euro and GFS keep the Pacific side warm during the short range.  Then both are in remarkable agreement on a traditional dipole anomaly taking hold in the day 4-5 period thru day 7-8 before the euro goes back to a warm Pacific but more of a poleward vortex.

This is the kind of forecasted dipole that can really move the ice from the Pacific towards the Atlantic.  Stay tuned.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2665 on: August 01, 2014, 05:57:21 PM »

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2666 on: August 01, 2014, 07:14:53 PM »
The trend continues to push the vortex into the Northern Kara region.  Let's see if the Euro holds and slides it back towards GIS in the 8-10 day range or not.

It's still way out there and highly subject to change.  Never the less losses are going to pick up under this scenario.  There is far to much heating over the Pacific side and a ton of Compaction around the Laptev which could end up with a large area up to 85N of open water if this kind of regime takes hold.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2667 on: August 01, 2014, 07:41:43 PM »
So is the weather really anywhere like 2013?  How come we are over 300k above 2013 in area?  How come Laptev has melted out stronger than any other year, yet the Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS seem to be lagging so far behind?  The early melt through the Bering Strait was quite fast, and faster than the last few years, yet that melt front has been very slow since it got into the Chukchi. 

2013 had very low melt on the Pacific side as well.  Weather is obviously a factor, but I can't see how the weather would cause so much more melt in Laptev than towards the Pacific.  Perhaps its just thicker multi-year ice on that side of the basin that is melting slower. 

In early spring a persistent low over Barents occurred, this is strongly apparent in the Mar to May average SLP.


Associated with this were anti clockwise winds that caused a strong flow off the coast around Laptev towards the north.

The oranges and yellows over Laptev show the strength of the wind, the rings of arrows show now it was directed northwards. This flow was maintained enough to produce 3 to 4m/sec wins in the three month average. This pushed the ice away from the coast opening up a coastal flaw lead, then a large polnya.

Subsequently wind did not close the polnya , and then into the summer ice/albedo feedback took hold and enlarged the feature.

With regards ocean heat content and Atlantic Water. I have read that AW takes about four years to go from Svalbard locality to the Siberian coast - but I can't find the relevant paper, so can't be sure on that.

Although weather has played a significant role, I read this year as mainly a result of the large MYI export into Beaufort Chukchi and the ESS. Beaufort extent is actually comparable to other post 2007 years as of 25 July. Laptev is the lowest recorded extent for 25 July, Kara (also Barents) is the highest extent since 2007, but remains very low in the long term context. Chukchi is the third highest extent since 2007 for 25 July. However the ESS is above average, only 2008 shows similar extent (post 2007) and ESS compactness remains about average and has the highest post 2007 compactness.

The ESS being above average is significant because, as of 25 July, extent was 0.86M, whereas for example Kara is 0.36M, and Beaufort 0.29M (Central is 4.39M).

It's worth noting that Central Arctic's lowest extent on 25 July was actually in 2013.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2668 on: August 01, 2014, 08:39:28 PM »
The Euro is coming in with a HUGE ridge developing between day 3-4 onward over the arctic.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Rick Aster

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2669 on: August 01, 2014, 08:59:58 PM »
I figure this is worth an airing here as well as on the SWERUS-C3 thread:

[ breaking ice movie ]


Smooth sailing!

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2670 on: August 01, 2014, 09:17:32 PM »


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

zworld

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2671 on: August 01, 2014, 10:08:08 PM »
The whole thing was about (in my eyes unreasonable comments) that this year should see some particular melt due to methane levels.
Okay, so methane levels are rising at a rapid rate, but they won't affect melt this year for some magic reason. Got it.

Concerning methane. As Im not a scentist Im sure you are all aware of the following. Emissions last year by Shakhova and others were reported as much worse than previous years. Methane plumes that reached the surface and emitted into the atmosphere were seen over wide areas of the Siberian Shelf.

At the same time, OH radicals have been decreasing in the atmosphere. A paper from the Goddard Space Center in 2009 suggested that the loss of sea ice will reduce OH numbers even further, with late-summer OH concentrations over northern high latitudes reduced 30-60% when removing sea ice in that season, due to the reduction in photo-dissociation rates.

“These results suggest that the tropospheric oxidizing capacity could change dramatically over the Arctic if summer sea ice is to retreat in the future, something that could impact the removal of important gases (methane, carbon monoxide) in this region.”

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/voulgarakis_01/

Since we have lost much more summer sea ice since this paper was published, how could methane, if hydrates release is similar to last years expulsion, or worse, not have an effect on current melt. Since the methane molecule (before any degradation has taken place) is probably hundreds of times more heat trapping than CO2, I cant see this not having a serious effect. If it's there in the atmosphere, why would it not have an effect?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2672 on: August 01, 2014, 10:30:02 PM »


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2673 on: August 02, 2014, 03:19:11 AM »
These graphs remain largely a mystery to me, but both look very bad (for the ice)... (Please correct me if I'm wrong.)
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2674 on: August 02, 2014, 04:01:54 AM »
You are not wrong.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2675 on: August 02, 2014, 04:09:06 AM »
Since the methane molecule (before any degradation has taken place) is probably hundreds of times more heat trapping than CO2, I cant see this not having a serious effect. If it's there in the atmosphere, why would it not have an effect?

zworld - it's not a matter of if, its a matter of how much.

The concentration of methane currently is about 1800 Parts per billion vs CO2's concentration of 400 parts per million; in short there is 200 times the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. 

By extension, the current "burps" of Methane, which do *not* significantly alter that ratio, will not have an immediate dramatic influence over the melt.  If they continue, over time, they will change that dynamic, in which case we will see significant changes in weather which over time, will translate into changes in the ice.

There will be a lag, which can be measured in years.  The one thing which many of us think might change that, would be a significant, sudden sublimation of clathrates on from one or another of the shelves along the Arctic Basin (the ESS and Laptev stand out here).  That is the one thing which might have a prompt impact on temperature, but still would take years to apply to the ice.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2676 on: August 02, 2014, 06:56:21 AM »
This is going to be the warmest at least 1/3rd to start August since 2008 and it's not even close.

Other years the ice was already in much worse shape.  But we saw in 2008 how fast the ice along the continental shelf in August can get going with 5-10CM per day losses.

The ice is likely about 1.25-1.5M thick on average over the heart of the ESS with some smaller strips of 1.75M+.

It won't take long before it starts to quickly fall apart.  We can already see quite a bit of darkening on the jaxa scans







I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2677 on: August 02, 2014, 07:07:01 AM »
At least the Southern 1/3rd of the ESS shows big melt signs.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2678 on: August 02, 2014, 07:19:21 AM »
The 00z GFS turns into a sloppy butt with the steering currents but is flat nasty warm over the ESS region.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2679 on: August 02, 2014, 10:35:08 AM »
Skies are about to clear out very well over the Chukchi, ESS, and CAB.  The Chukchi will be the most clear with potentially days on end of clear skies. 

Insolation is still over 400w/m2 where the open water is for another week or so.

Heat uptake is going to be huge.  Winds are progged to turn Southerly after tomorrow and persist for a while. 

Given how broken up the ice is there already having a few days with blustery Southerly winds again but with a lot more heat in the upper layers of the water is bad news bears.

This is in addition to the atmosphere being primed with WAA and surface temps staying above 0C pretty much nonstop anywhere South of 77-78N on the Chukchi/ESS side for the foreseeable future.

I do not know what it would or will take to get major losses by the end in the ESS but I know ice conditions are going and are currently deteriorating over that part of the arctic.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2680 on: August 02, 2014, 10:42:43 AM »
The Euro Ensemble mean doesn't have the extra low blowing up around day 3 over the pole.

it is a little unusual for the OP and ensemble mean to be that far apart that early in the run.

Look at that Hoss just sitting over the Pacific side.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2681 on: August 02, 2014, 11:36:16 AM »
Since the methane molecule (before any degradation has taken place) is probably hundreds of times more heat trapping than CO2, I cant see this not having a serious effect. If it's there in the atmosphere, why would it not have an effect?

zworld - it's not a matter of if, its a matter of how much.

The concentration of methane currently is about 1800 Parts per billion vs CO2's concentration of 400 parts per million; in short there is 200 times the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. 

By extension, the current "burps" of Methane, which do *not* significantly alter that ratio, will not have an immediate dramatic influence over the melt.  If they continue, over time, they will change that dynamic, in which case we will see significant changes in weather which over time, will translate into changes in the ice.

There will be a lag, which can be measured in years.  The one thing which many of us think might change that, would be a significant, sudden sublimation of clathrates on from one or another of the shelves along the Arctic Basin (the ESS and Laptev stand out here).  That is the one thing which might have a prompt impact on temperature, but still would take years to apply to the ice.

As far as the Arctic sea ice is concerned the final well-mixed atmospheric partial pressure of methane isn't really that relevant.  What matters is the local concentration, which is going to be much higher exactly where "burps" are occurring.  This means it will *not* take years before it applies to the ice, but will in fact begin immediately.  As long as it was an "event", and not an ongoing (runaway) process, the local concentration will fall off as atmospheric mixing takes place.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2682 on: August 02, 2014, 12:25:03 PM »

The concentration of methane currently is about 1800 Parts per billion vs CO2's concentration of 400 parts per million; in short there is 200 times the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. 

By extension, the current "burps" of Methane, which do *not* significantly alter that ratio, will not have an immediate dramatic influence over the melt.

jdallen, I've read a huge amount about this over the years and I find that nothing is a clear cut as the usual scientific "averaging" method would present it.

If you read this article, there are some things which stand right out.

First it only assumes methane emissions from the lakes.  Nothing from the clathrate deposits on the continental shelves.  This is a good method because until the Oden there have been remarkably few surveys of the methane emissions from these areas.

The comment from David is very telling.  When asked about the local impacts in the Arctic, he responds

Quote
But the mixing time for the atmosphere is short, about a year for exchange between the hemispheres and much shorter for mixing along latitude circles

Now the author of the comment is, I am sure, aware that local impact for atmospheric warming is as much as 75 times the impact of CO2.  Given that this local impact may only hold for as much as one month, we might think that this is of no significance.  Yet, were that month to be July or August, this would be of very significant impact.

I have also seen articles which dismiss methane emissions as a one shot deal.  OK so it outgasses and it's done, millions if not billions of years of carbon all emitted, millions or billions of years to get it back in the bottle again.

But,

The arctic ice is, we are beginning to learn, a one shot deal too.  Well at least for the foreseeable future for Humans.

The article is entitled An Arctic methane worst-case scenario

Yet it only encompasses the lake emissions and does not encompass what the Oden is finding.  10 - 50 times the background (normal) emissions.  This is just a beginning.  what happens when it reaches 1,000 times the emissions or the subsea clathrate emissions reach 10 times what the arctic lakes are releasing, in overall volume, then increase in emissions by 10 or 50 times?  When we reach the "Worst Case" in a decade and that worst case happens in July/August and it does not move very far in that time...

Given the sheer scale of the problem

Quote
This estimate, corresponding to 500-2500 gigatonnes carbon (Gt C), is smaller than the 5000 Gt C estimated for all other geo-organic fuel reserves but substantially larger than the ~230 Gt C estimated for other natural gas sources

It seems a little flippant to just dismiss this as something of interest but no real importance in the overall scheme of things.

Especially when we have recorded events of this kind before.

Quote
However, there is stronger evidence that runaway methane clathrate breakdown may have caused drastic alteration of the ocean environment (such as ocean acidification and ocean stratification) and the atmosphere of earth on a number of occasions in the past, over timescales of tens of thousands of years

That last piece is especially important.  Because we never tire of telling those who doubt or those who deny that 200 years of human activity has caused 15,000 to 30,000 years of climatic change.

Our science is, only now, becoming very aware that rapid warming of this kind causes huge and previously unseen hotspots.  If one of those hotspots becomes the clathrate beds of the Arctic continental shelf, then all the averaging in the world will not save the current Arctic ice pack.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2683 on: August 02, 2014, 01:14:37 PM »
NielT

Back in 2009 I asked a similar question on RealClimate (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/04/aerosol-formation-and-climate-part-i/comment-page-1/#comment-119728)

Quote
Duae Quartunciae #2, reminds me of a question that climate experts have told me that the answer is “No”. They are probably right but on these topics it doesn’t hurt to be sure. The question is

    Does methane emitted in Arctic regions have any local heating effect before it becomes well-mixed?

I have read that

1. Weather over Siberia can have blocking patterns with little wind.

2. Tamino’s blog, if I remember correctly, mentioned that rises in methane levels can vary by several weeks at different measuring stations.

3. Concentrations of methane near the emitting sources can be hundreds of times greater than background levels. Clearly, if these concentrations reached any height there would be a local warming effect. If these concentrations reached one hundred metres above the emitting sources these concentrations would occupy about one percent of the atmosphere above the source. One hundred times a background level would double the warming effect of methane in the locality.

Warming areas where methane is emitted with methane that is not well-mixed is clearly some sort of feedback. Is it vanishingly small? I would be interested to know if anyone has done the work to dismiss it definitively.

In 2009 I asked the question again (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/03/arctic-methane-on-the-move/comment-page-1/#comment-164863)

That time there was a response
Quote
Response: I don't think a plume of methane here or there would noticably affect the local climate any more than a cloud here or there would. Heat flows around a lot on Earth. But you're right, I haven't thought about it quantitatively. David

Has anyone yet "thought about it quantitatively"?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2684 on: August 02, 2014, 01:32:27 PM »
It doesn't seem like it. It's not just some isolated plume or random cloud of methane. The whole region has had significantly higher methane atmospheric concentrations than most other places on earth for a long time. That must play at least some role in the anomalous warming of the Arctic.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2685 on: August 02, 2014, 02:42:52 PM »
The ice to the east of Victoria Island (CAA) is breaking up.

http://1.usa.gov/1uSSIjp
http://1.usa.gov/1xP5pbd

Edit: You can also see it in Wipneus' home brew update today:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg33044.html#msg33044
« Last Edit: August 02, 2014, 02:50:23 PM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2687 on: August 02, 2014, 03:13:55 PM »

Quote
But the mixing time for the atmosphere is short, about a year for exchange between the hemispheres and much shorter for mixing along latitude circles

Now the author of the comment is, I am sure, aware that local impact for atmospheric warming is as much as 75 times the impact of CO2.  Given that this local impact may only hold for as much as one month, we might think that this is of no significance.  Yet, were that month to be July or August, this would be of very significant impact.

And if that latitude is 70-90 N? How long would it take to mix South?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2688 on: August 02, 2014, 03:17:20 PM »

Quote
But the mixing time for the atmosphere is short, about a year for exchange between the hemispheres and much shorter for mixing along latitude circles

Now the author of the comment is, I am sure, aware that local impact for atmospheric warming is as much as 75 times the impact of CO2.  Given that this local impact may only hold for as much as one month, we might think that this is of no significance.  Yet, were that month to be July or August, this would be of very significant impact.

And if that latitude is 70-90 N? How long would it take to mix South?

You know you can edit your old post instead of triple posting right? it still pops up an alert to the board that the post has been edited.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2689 on: August 02, 2014, 03:30:29 PM »

Quote
But the mixing time for the atmosphere is short, about a year for exchange between the hemispheres and much shorter for mixing along latitude circles

Now the author of the comment is, I am sure, aware that local impact for atmospheric warming is as much as 75 times the impact of CO2.  Given that this local impact may only hold for as much as one month, we might think that this is of no significance.  Yet, were that month to be July or August, this would be of very significant impact.

And if that latitude is 70-90 N? How long would it take to mix South?

You know you can edit your old post instead of triple posting right? it still pops up an alert to the board that the post has been edited.

??
It was my first post on that subject. I was quoting others...

Edit: Or you mean I should combine the 3 posts on different topics into a single post? What difference does it make?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2690 on: August 02, 2014, 04:02:05 PM »
Now the author of the comment is, I am sure, aware that local impact for atmospheric warming is as much as 75 times the impact of CO2.  Given that this local impact may only hold for as much as one month, we might think that this is of no significance.  Yet, were that month to be July or August, this would be of very significant impact.

Thanks for the responses all.

My concern is with our limited knowledge of the potency of methane itself. We talk in terms of it's heat trapping abilities 20 to 100 years after release into the atmosphere, which means we are calculating CO2 and water vapor impact, and not methane itself. I believe Sam Carana hypothesized that methane itself, before degradation, was up to 1000 times as potent as CO2. I have also heard hundreds used. (Someday maybe we will know the exact figure).

If there are no reactive changes occurring to methane due to the ever shrinking OH budget allowing it to persist, and if methane is hundreds to a thousand times deadlier than CO2 to the atmosphere, AND we see continued hydrate releases as Shakhova did last year, at what point is the effect immediate and alarming.

I realize that the answers to these questions are blowing in the wind, but I feel strongly that we need to include methane release in current observations.

One reason I am so concerned about methane is due to the fact that the world is retooling itself to run on the supposedly clean nat gas methane fuel, and we need to get science ahead of that cart, and the Arctic is probably the best place to learn the science as the methane releases are primarily local and short lived.

I hope Im making sense.....

I also prefer using the term hydrate over clathrate as the energy industry uses the hydrate term and it's important for people to know that the fuel of the future is the same one scientists are so concerned about causing a possible extinction event. (Possible, on it's way or on going, take your pick).

(PS. Just for the record I dont visit Real Climate. I was banned from that site for suggesting in 2009 that Obama was not going to do the things needed to curb climate change. The head honcho insulted me and deleted my comments. And they weren't harsh, just factual, as the Copenhagen Summit showed us when it became obvious that the US was the main glitch to an agreement with teeth.)

NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2691 on: August 02, 2014, 04:38:12 PM »

And if that latitude is 70-90 N? How long would it take to mix South?

To me a much more important question is how long would it take to circumnavigate 70-90 North.  given that it would always migrate to the southern hemisphere in a year or so.

That answer would be Much more interesting as it would mean that only one area of the shelf, if it produced significant enough emissions, could impact the entire Arctic....

As to offending the guys at RC?  Depends how you put it.  My contention has always been that signing treaties which will never be implemented is not the way forward.  I feel the biggest issue with the climate lobby and Obama is that he won't use their terminology.  In my opinion this makes him smarter.  He uses terms which people can't argue with to get work done which needs to be done.  Using climate lobby terms is inflammatory in the US today and will be for some time to come.

But, in the end, he has to govern and if you hack off the crazies who have majorities, then you are not going to be able to govern.

So if you make it a fighting point that he does so, people are going to get annoyed with you.  State it and move on.  Dogs with bones tends to == trolls in the forum world.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2014, 05:13:33 PM by NeilT »
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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2692 on: August 02, 2014, 05:30:37 PM »
To quote Depeche Mode, everything counts in large amounts.

If the local releases of methane are large and sustained (relative terms, I know), then they *must* affect local warming. It's simple physics.

To me a much more important question is how long would it take to circumnavigate 70-90 North.  given that it would always migrate to the southern hemisphere in a year or so.
Not quite. Keep in mind that the northern hemisphere has a higher concentration of methane than does the southern hemisphere. That's because of the greater land area in the north, which produces more methane, and greater OH in the south, which helps break down methane, because of all of the ocean. But as more methane is produced in the north (from melting permafrost, clathrate releases, etc.), then that imbalance can grow. Which, of course, gets amplified in the arctic, like everything seems to. So even "well mixed" the methane can cause regional warming in excess of its globally-averaged number.

And finally, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE can we drop the political stuff? There are much better places for it and it will utterly ruin the environment here if it continues. Thank you in advance.

NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2693 on: August 02, 2014, 05:37:48 PM »
And finally, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE can we drop the political stuff? There are much better places for it and it will utterly ruin the environment here if it continues. Thank you in advance.

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Xyrus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2694 on: August 02, 2014, 05:47:46 PM »
Now the author of the comment is, I am sure, aware that local impact for atmospheric warming is as much as 75 times the impact of CO2.  Given that this local impact may only hold for as much as one month, we might think that this is of no significance.  Yet, were that month to be July or August, this would be of very significant impact.

Thanks for the responses all.

My concern is with our limited knowledge of the potency of methane itself. We talk in terms of it's heat trapping abilities 20 to 100 years after release into the atmosphere, which means we are calculating CO2 and water vapor impact, and not methane itself. I believe Sam Carana hypothesized that methane itself, before degradation, was up to 1000 times as potent as CO2. I have also heard hundreds used. (Someday maybe we will know the exact figure).

There's more to it than potency. There is also saturation. The response to GHGs is logarithmic. This means it takes more and more of the gas to achieve the same effect. So as an example, lets say it takes 1000 ppm of a gas to achieve 1 C of warming. To get another 1 C of warming you now need 2000 ppm. To get another 1C of warming after that it would require 4000 ppm. So on and so forth.

According to the IPCC AR5, methane is approximately 86 times more potent than CO2 over a 20 year span. And the reason why things like this are measured over long time spans is that, short of something like a PETM event, there won't be a spontaneous release large enough to cause an immediate impact.

Quote
If there are no reactive changes occurring to methane due to the ever shrinking OH budget allowing it to persist, and if methane is hundreds to a thousand times deadlier than CO2 to the atmosphere, AND we see continued hydrate releases as Shakhova did last year, at what point is the effect immediate and alarming.

Methane hydroxyl reduction is just one of many ways that methane breaks down. Methane simply does not last that long in our atmosphere. If it isn't being constantly replenished then it rapidly declines.

And as I mentioned before, it would take a tremendous release of methane to have any immediate effects. The effects of GHG increases are measured in degrees per decades or centuries so you can imagine what kind of increase would be needed to have a noticeable impact over the period of days or months.

And even IF there were such a massive local increase, it wouldn't stay put. Winds and weather patterns would quickly spread it out.

Quote
I realize that the answers to these questions are blowing in the wind, but I feel strongly that we need to include methane release in current observations.

Methane isn't being released in any amount that would have any significant or meaningful impact on short term arctic ice observations. Long term, yes, any additional GHGs will impact arctic ice formation and melting but that is a climatological phenomena happening over decades and centuries. Yearly/seasonal ice is primarily determined by ice conditions, weather, and ocean patterns.

Quote
One reason I am so concerned about methane is due to the fact that the world is retooling itself to run on the supposedly clean nat gas methane fuel, and we need to get science ahead of that cart, and the Arctic is probably the best place to learn the science as the methane releases are primarily local and short lived.

I'm pretty sure scientists understand methane. It isn't exactly a new compound, nor does it violate any known laws of chemistry or physics.

And methane IS cleaner. When you burn it, you get CO2 and water vapor. You get less CO2 than burning gasoline, and you don't get all the other pollutants that gasoline produces.

Is it a perfect solution? No. Is it better than what we have now? Yes.

Quote
I hope Im making sense.....

I also prefer using the term hydrate over clathrate as the energy industry uses the hydrate term and it's important for people to know that the fuel of the future is the same one scientists are so concerned about causing a possible extinction event. (Possible, on it's way or on going, take your pick).

You're being alarmist. Stick to the science.  There have been multiple papers on the subject of arctic methane releases, an none of them make any claims of an upcoming "methane bomb". It takes a very specific set of circumstances for something like that to occur and currently the conditions just aren't there for it.

What will and is currently happening is that clathrates will continue to melt and add more methane into the atmosphere. This process will continue over decades, with the shallow shelf clathrates melting out first. It will contribute to the warming, but it isn't going to trigger a some runaway effect.

Quote
(PS. Just for the record I dont visit Real Climate. I was banned from that site for suggesting in 2009 that Obama was not going to do the things needed to curb climate change. The head honcho insulted me and deleted my comments. And they weren't harsh, just factual, as the Copenhagen Summit showed us when it became obvious that the US was the main glitch to an agreement with teeth.)

I very much doubt that was the only reason. I've been on RC for years and I've seen all kinds of troll/off-topic posts that didn't get deleted or banned. If you got banned, there was a reason for it.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2695 on: August 02, 2014, 06:04:17 PM »
After looking at this I just don't understand why the ice has held up so well this year. I was really thinking that this year would easily beat 2013, but I think at this point it would be a minor miracle. Looks like, despite the recent warmth, the ice is going to make it though this summer in decent shape.  Who knows if an El Nino will form and shake things up for next year.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2696 on: August 02, 2014, 06:13:45 PM »

What will and is currently happening is that clathrates will continue to melt and add more methane into the atmosphere. This process will continue over decades, with the shallow shelf clathrates melting out first. It will contribute to the warming, but it isn't going to trigger a some runaway effect.


I agree with that.  But, as you see from Geoff's post, even the climate scientists who write articles on the "Worst case" of Methane release have simply not thought about what it would mean, purely locally, for a large scale release.

In fact the RC article I linked talked about 100 times background being a "worst case" and yet we see from Oden that we are already getting up to 50 times background.  OK he talked about 100 times for 100 years.  But only for the lakes.  So if we get 20 from the lakes and 80 from the clathrates, what then?

If it then doubles, or triples?  What then?  Nobody knows because nobody has seen how it destabilises in the current environment.

Nobody is talking about "clathrate gun hypotheses" or runaway impacts.  What we are talking about is strictly short term, local, impacts to a system which is already under stress.  It does not need 1C extra warming or 2C extra warming to have a massive impact.  The system is already seeing >10C warming in winter and, roughly, >3C warming in summer.

All we are postulating is the knock on impact, locally, of a local hot spot of warming, which may generate methane which will rapidly destabilise the ice under threat.

I'm sure that is not something we want to ignore by looking at decadal "global" patterns of methane emissions.

Do we?

I don't think that is alarmist.  More realist.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2697 on: August 02, 2014, 06:36:32 PM »
After looking at this I just don't understand why the ice has held up so well this year. I was really thinking that this year would easily beat 2013, but I think at this point it would be a minor miracle. Looks like, despite the recent warmth, the ice is going to make it though this summer in decent shape.  Who knows if an El Nino will form and shake things up for next year.

I think that's picking up clouds and appearing to be more solid ice than there really is. cf. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icedrift_anim/index.uk.php

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2698 on: August 02, 2014, 06:45:06 PM »
After looking at this ... I just don't understand why the ice has held up so well this year. I was really thinking that this year would easily beat 2013, but I think at this point it would be a minor miracle. Looks like, despite the recent warmth, the ice is going to make it though this summer in decent shape.  Who knows if an El Nino will form and shake things up for next year.

As Neven notes, very little is certain with the Arctic.

That said, we are now at the start of the timeframe where some of the pack's greatest changes in "melt momentum" took place.  In 2012, it went into freefall.  In 2013, it came to a sudden halt.

We're now watching the Euro, GFS and melt numbers to see which trajectory it takes in 2014. 

My own speculation is 2014 will pass 2013 by a modest margin.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2699 on: August 02, 2014, 06:51:13 PM »

And finally, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE can we drop the political stuff? There are much better places for it and it will utterly ruin the environment here if it continues. Thank you in advance.

Sorry about that. I'll definately keep the political out of any posts herewith. Right after posting the thought occurred that I shouldnt have posted that.

And thanks all for the information. Im still just learning this stuff.