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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2800 on: August 04, 2014, 11:57:07 AM »
thanks P.Ellis for clearing that up. must have missed a whole lot of relevant notes here during last two months...
« Last Edit: August 04, 2014, 12:02:51 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2801 on: August 04, 2014, 11:58:23 AM »
What is up with the pretentiousness?

The top one is realistic the bottom one is garbage.

Pretentious? Moi?

I'm sorry if my reply was somewhat terse Friv. I was trying to be helpful whilst in the midst of doing my best impersonation of the world's leading expert on Arctic surfing. This was all part of my cunning plan to take down the Daily Telegraph despite their DMCA takedown. For further information please see:

Should we break out the bubbly?
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2802 on: August 04, 2014, 12:07:43 PM »
We can break out the bubbly after the ESS falls in grand fashion.

And that Laptev bite opening reaches the pole.

I'm not sure why but watching the ice get hosed is exciting. 

Probably has to do with personal confirmation bias about AGW.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2803 on: August 04, 2014, 12:14:28 PM »
Michael H. I partially have similar beliefs, but, doesnt trouble you that the worst years of Arctic ice decline have come when global temperatures have not increased much for about ten years? If there is a cycle change and oceans start to absorb less heat, dont you think this could add insult to injury to Arctic?
Sorry for OT

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2804 on: August 04, 2014, 12:14:56 PM »
My apologies for being rude.  Been pulling 18-20 hour days the last couple weeks.

It's catching up with me now. 
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2805 on: August 04, 2014, 12:17:05 PM »
Spring snow cover loss and land ice loss(globally) have both dramatically increased as well insync with Sea ice loss.

Could be lots of contributing factors
I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2806 on: August 04, 2014, 12:53:39 PM »
We can break out the bubbly after the ESS falls in grand fashion.

We can break out the bubbly after David Rose and Andrew Neil fall in grand fashion!
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NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2807 on: August 04, 2014, 01:16:45 PM »
We can break out the bubbly after David Rose and Andrew Neil fall in grand fashion!

Sadly only on to their rubber swords and abundant cushions.  Ready to arise from the "vanquished" and continue spreading their insidious verbiage to a public unwilling to face the truth...
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2808 on: August 04, 2014, 01:20:33 PM »
The heat is building fast over the Pacific side and this is just getting started.

EC shows 8C in the Southern ESS.  2-3C up near the ice edge in the Chukchi/Eastern ESS.  4-5C over the Northern Laptev.

Even 4C right next to the ice off the NW coast of Alaska. 




https://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/351_100.gif

Friv, whilst I love your posts, I've found with DMI that you need to skip the anomaly figures and go with the actual SST.  It doesn't look quite so dramatic, but it does give a much better view of how likely the ice is to melt.  2C is quite dramatic enough thanks as shown with the "poof and it's gone" thread.


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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2809 on: August 04, 2014, 03:27:19 PM »
August is here and so slightly belatedly I've started updating the Great White Con ice mass balance buoy visualisations. The CRREL's IMB 2013B is lookly decidedly dodgy. It's now heading towards the Bering Strait at a rate of knots, and the top and bottom sounders have ceased to report anything for a few days. The thermistors seem to be fine though, and this is what they reveal.

Would anyone care to open a book on the date of 2014B's ultimate demise?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2810 on: August 04, 2014, 03:35:40 PM »
We can break out the bubbly after the ESS falls in grand fashion.

We can break out the bubbly after David Rose and Andrew Neil fall in grand fashion!

Assuming those are deniers or denier propagandists their fall will probably only come when they die given the seemingly large group in the public that appears almost immovable on AGW regardless of the data
I got a nickname for all my guns
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2811 on: August 04, 2014, 03:52:06 PM »
Assuming those are deniers or denier propagandists their fall will probably only come when they die given the seemingly large group in the public that appears almost immovable on AGW regardless of the data

One is a denialist mouthpiece for the Daily Mail in the UK and the other is another like minded soul from the BBC....

Jim is waging a war with them at his site The Great White Con.

The Daily Mail used to be a reputable UK newspaper till it was taken over by the "Against Everything" brigade.  Global Warming Denialism is tailor made for them.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2812 on: August 04, 2014, 04:20:29 PM »
it seems that on area CT today, that 2014 crossed 2013 on day 214.



That's lagging one day from Uni Bremen and we saw more melt yesterday.

As far as I can see the key difference between 2013 and 2014 at this date, is that 2013 weather was driving storms which were slowing melt.  This year we seem to be set up for some quite reasonable August melting.

That being the case, and avoiding a key slowdown in one or two weeks, 2014 is going to look a lot more like 2010/2012 than it will like 2005. Which, in area at least, it will have equalled in the next few days.

Personally I think it is the state of the ice in reaction to global warming.  That would appear to be backed up by an article I found in the Barents Observer which states that
"Russia will no longer be conducting scientific research from stations on drifting ice floes in the Arctic. There are simply no ice floes left."

6 more weeks of melt, ish.  Well if nothing else it will be interesting to watch.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2813 on: August 04, 2014, 04:38:53 PM »
Whilst I'm at it did I note from the latest Uni Bremen and lance modis, that the northern sea route is now navigable "with care"?
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2814 on: August 04, 2014, 04:47:20 PM »
Whilst I'm at it did I note from the latest Uni Bremen and lance modis, that the northern sea route is now navigable "with care"?

Indeed, I also noticed this today, and added this to the latest blog post on the ASIB:

"In the meantime, the Arctic seems to be on for some of the most powerful melting weather we have seen this melting season. A prelude of it has already led to most of the Northern Sea Route opening up (just some last ice blocking Vilkitskiy Strait).

How things play out exactly, and what happens after that, will be discussed in the next ASI update."
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2815 on: August 04, 2014, 04:57:05 PM »
Whilst I'm at it did I note from the latest Uni Bremen and lance modis, that the northern sea route is now navigable "with care"?

Not through Vilkitskiy Strait it isn't. Hamburg AMSR2 shows a sliver of < 15% on the "northern route", but I wouldn't fancy it! MODIS is a bit on the cloudy side unfortunately: http://1.usa.gov/1pz8FWK

Anyone here got x-ray specs?
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NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2816 on: August 04, 2014, 05:24:06 PM »
Yes it was the northern route I was thinking of.

Sadly no xray specs.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2817 on: August 04, 2014, 07:21:30 PM »
August is here and so slightly belatedly I've started updating the Great White Con ice mass balance buoy visualisations. The CRREL's IMB 2013B is lookly decidedly dodgy. It's now heading towards the Bering Strait at a rate of knots, and the top and bottom sounders have ceased to report anything for a few days. The thermistors seem to be fine though, and this is what they reveal.

Would anyone care to open a book on the date of 2014B's ultimate demise?

By this up coming weekend.  Pretty much starting right now that region is getting flat blitzed from heat.

The winds have abruptly reversed and will blow out the Easterly/Southerly direction for the foreseeable future.

Right over that shallow and warm Southern Chukchi. 





I got a nickname for all my guns
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2818 on: August 04, 2014, 07:39:34 PM »
This is the end.

 ;D ;D

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2819 on: August 04, 2014, 08:47:13 PM »
August is here and so slightly belatedly I've started updating the Great White Con ice mass balance buoy visualisations. The CRREL's IMB 2013B is lookly decidedly dodgy. It's now heading towards the Bering Strait at a rate of knots, and the top and bottom sounders have ceased to report anything for a few days. The thermistors seem to be fine though, and this is what they reveal.

Would anyone care to open a book on the date of 2014B's ultimate demise?

Which is it, 2013B or 2014B?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2820 on: August 04, 2014, 08:55:49 PM »
August is here and so slightly belatedly I've started updating the Great White Con ice mass balance buoy visualisations. The CRREL's IMB 2013B is lookly decidedly dodgy. It's now heading towards the Bering Strait at a rate of knots, and the top and bottom sounders have ceased to report anything for a few days. The thermistors seem to be fine though, and this is what they reveal.

Would anyone care to open a book on the date of 2014B's ultimate demise?

That buoy melted out some time between July 15 and Aug 01. Comparing the sounders and the thermistor trace, I interpret it as the following:


Jun 01 trace
Thermistors 1 -> 4: in air at -4 degrees
Thermistors 5 -> ~21: in snow+ice layer, collective thickness a bit over 1.5m

Jun 15 trace
Thermistors 1 -> 4: in air at  >= 4 degrees above a melt pond
Thermistor 5: at air/water interface 
Thermistor 6 -> 7 in the melt pond
Thermistor 8: water/ice boundary
Thermistors 9 -> ~21: in snow+ice layer, collective thickness a bit over 1.5m
(sounders fooled by pond on surface, appears to show no major thickness loss yet, but actually there's been ~20-30cm of surface melt)

Jun 18 trace
Thermistors 1 -> 5: in air at  >= 4 degrees above a melt pond
Thermistor 6: at air/water interface 
Thermistor 7 -> 12 in melt water (likely melt pond and/or drainage  around the string)
Thermistor 13: apparent water/ice boundary
Thermistors 14 -> ~21: in ice layer, collective thickness a bit over 1.5m
(sounders still fooled by pond on surface, no apparent loss by sonar)

Jul 01 trace
Thermistors 1 -> 5: in air at  >= 6 degrees above a melt pond
Thermistor 6: at air/water interface, cooled by evaporation (?)
Thermistor 7: just under surface of melt pond, slightly warmer than 6 as the pond absorbs energy
Thermistors 8 -> ~15: In the melt pond, slightly below zero (brackish water now since it's mostly composed ice meltwater now rather than snow meltwater)
Thermistors 16 -> 20: In ice
(amazingly, sonar still shows almost no loss at top or bottom, but only ~40cm of actual ice left)

Jul 15 trace
Thermistors 1 -> 9: in air at  >= 6 degrees above a melt pond, 3-9 cooled by evaporation layer (?)
Thermistors 10 -> ~15: In the melt pond, slightly below zero (brackish water now since it's mostly composed ice meltwater now rather than snow meltwater)
Thermistors 16 -> 18: In ice
(sonar has now noticed ~30-40cm of top melt and ~20cm of bottom melt)

Aug 01 trace
1-5 in air at ~2 degrees
6 at water interface
Remainder in water at ~-1.5
(buoy is now floating in water with no ice)

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2821 on: August 04, 2014, 09:17:35 PM »


The poleward movement of the warm region of warm cutting thru the ice continues at a rapid pace and the winds just get worse.

The ESS is falling apart fast. 

Jaxa scans are effected by surface temps or ice temps so the Chuchki area looks a lot better than it is on this animation.



I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2822 on: August 04, 2014, 09:29:30 PM »
The ESS is deteriorating fast.  3/4th of it is water logged now big time.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2823 on: August 05, 2014, 12:52:01 AM »
The ESS is deteriorating fast.  3/4th of it is water logged now big time.
Yeah, today's MODIS image makes it pretty clear that there's nothing there putting up any resistance. If we get your week of warm weather, there won't be much left.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2824 on: August 05, 2014, 01:22:46 AM »
We are well passed the if stage for the ESS.  It's now a matter of how long.  It's going to be at least 7 day. AT LEAST.  This is a large scale block.  For it to break down will take time if it breaks down at all.


Here is the Euro ensemble mean for 9 days from now.  Both globals show a major trough parked right over the NPAC.  This will rip heat out of the NPAC and feed it into the arctic.  But it's going to let this mega ridge just sit over the basin for a while.



I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2825 on: August 05, 2014, 01:51:23 AM »
Do you have a map of the wind fields for that?  With a great big high and no adjacent low, there's not so much of a pressure gradient driving meridional flow.  One of the reasons the dipole anomaly is so bad for the ice is that the combination of high+low brings in southerly winds across the ice.

I don't have a feel for whether uniform high pressure is quite as bad as a dipole. My gut feeling would say no, because of the reduced wind speed.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2826 on: August 05, 2014, 02:21:13 AM »
It's the 216 hour euro ensemble mean and you want to see the wind field to show it's not a dipole?

Have you not seen any of the dozens of model animations posted the last few days?




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2827 on: August 05, 2014, 02:51:20 AM »
Do you have a map of the wind fields for that?  With a great big high and no adjacent low, there's not so much of a pressure gradient driving meridional flow.  One of the reasons the dipole anomaly is so bad for the ice is that the combination of high+low brings in southerly winds across the ice.

I don't have a feel for whether uniform high pressure is quite as bad as a dipole. My gut feeling would say no, because of the reduced wind speed.

Because he's posting an ensemble mean, pressure gradients (and the resulting winds) are weaker due to averaging amongst the individual deterministic model members. Use caution here.

I would amend your statement to:

Pre-conditioning (via melt ponding) is necessary to sufficiently weaken sea ice to subject it to significant melt. In order to get to that point, it requires warm+windy conditions to help weaken the near-surface temperature inversion and allow heat exchange with the ice. By this time of the year, the near surface inversion is already weakened by an increased area of open water and widespread melt ponding, requiring less wind to have the same effect. Of course, being as we're in August, there's not much time left for melting, so the longer term damage will wind up being cut off by the setting of the polar sun.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2828 on: August 05, 2014, 04:12:25 AM »
My post was to show the likelihood of the dominant ridging pattern staying in place for the foreseeable future.





You can call it a mini dipole but it's already well underway over the Pacific side.





When we look at the current Jaxa graphic versus 2013 min.  The Atlantic side sticks out.  There is no indication that the ice this year will retreat anywhere near that much there.

However that is actually a relatively small area. The Pacific side is going to have to be uber resistant now to have a chance to be with 2013.  I can't see it with the current weather unfolding and how fast the ESS is crumbling.

We will see.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2829 on: August 05, 2014, 07:10:15 AM »
Buckle your seat belt Dorthy because Kansas is going bye-bye.

Maybe Putin will build like a modular floating Island where he can plant a Russian flag at the pole claiming it when there is open water in all directions.  $$$$$



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2830 on: August 05, 2014, 09:34:28 AM »
This is amazing.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jonthed

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2831 on: August 05, 2014, 10:24:39 AM »
Hi Friv,

Thanks for your insights and heads up, I must say though, I've not been following the ice for as long or in as much detail as you and would love it if you could just briefly explain what you're seeing in these recent model runs that's got you so excited?

Is it the high and the warm temperatures over large parts of the arctic? Is this an unusual pattern? Is it going to mean much more rapid melt/area loss than we usually see? Is it one for the record books (not this year's ultimate minimum but this particular weather pattern itself and associated rapid melt?). Please forgive my ignorance, these are genuine questions.

You also said "For it to break down will take time if it breaks down at all." Does this mean this kind of ridge could last a lot longer than the models currently show? And if so, would that be something extra-ordinary? Could it lead to massive melt, bringing 2014's minimum right down to near record levels?

I'm trying to share in the excitement but I'm not quite sure what I'm excited about and how excited I should be ;)

Thanks


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2832 on: August 05, 2014, 10:39:35 AM »
as a waitress with no scientific background whatsoever, i find friv's post most alarming:



the arctic is wearing a bikini!

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2833 on: August 05, 2014, 11:11:04 AM »
Piomas came in really high for July.  Way higher than I would ever expect.  It would seem we have had some very fast melting the last part of July or piomas over estimated some areas.

Never the less it would be a huge win for the ice if it finished with or above 2007-2009. 

Or even 6000km3.



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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2834 on: August 05, 2014, 11:41:04 AM »




Out of interest what is the size of the 50% sea ice concentration area? How much does each grid 'square' represent in area?

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2835 on: August 05, 2014, 11:51:13 AM »
Hi Friv,

Thanks for your insights and heads up, I must say though, I've not been following the ice for as long or in as much detail as you and would love it if you could just briefly explain what you're seeing in these recent model runs that's got you so excited?

Is it the high and the warm temperatures over large parts of the arctic? Is this an unusual pattern? Is it going to mean much more rapid melt/area loss than we usually see? Is it one for the record books (not this year's ultimate minimum but this particular weather pattern itself and associated rapid melt?). Please forgive my ignorance, these are genuine questions.

You also said "For it to break down will take time if it breaks down at all." Does this mean this kind of ridge could last a lot longer than the models currently show? And if so, would that be something extra-ordinary? Could it lead to massive melt, bringing 2014's minimum right down to near record levels?

I'm trying to share in the excitement but I'm not quite sure what I'm excited about and how excited I should be ;)

Thanks

You got it pretty much figured out.

It is unusual but it has been far more common since 2007 but even back to 2002 it started showing up a lot more.

Yes it will mean more melt than normal.  Skies will be sunnier than normal for August by a lot.  Warm air from the NPAC is being drawn into the basin around a vigorous SLP and the budding HP.

The clearing skies will maximize the solar that is left which is still relatively potent around 415-370w/m2 potential daily insolation thru the next 2 weeks. 

The winds will favor pushing the ice away from Alaska/NW Canada but also away from the Chukchi/ESS/Laptev and kind of crunch the ice together and send it towards the North Atlantic.

This opens up even more water for the sun to warm up in turn that heat will be pushed by the wind into the ice.

Even tho it's early August the sun and very warm air mass allows heat to build up in the water but it has no where to really go with the air-mass being pretty warm.  So the surface will warm up enough even with weakening solar to bring a pretty large area for August of 0C temps. 

We will be combining the peak NH Lower troposphere heat content arctic ocean summer OHC. 

The graphic below is sst anomalies.  That red block over the Southern ESS is 4-8C water.  Its very shallow and winds are pushing it into the ice that ice there will be eaten up rapidly obviously allowing the heat to keep pushing North as long as winds cooperate. 

In the oranges and lighter reds in the laptev and ess that is still 1-3C water confirmed by Environment Canada that is plenty warm to really wreck havoc on the ice.  Given it's expected to keep pushing into the ice side and bottom melt should increase substantially.

The pattern is very blocky with the NPAC and NATL setting up for a mega ridge to just sit over the basin.


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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2836 on: August 05, 2014, 11:52:34 AM »
Quote
Out of interest what is the size of the 50% sea ice concentration area? How much does each grid 'square' represent in area?

If you are talking about the lat and long boxes I have no idea.

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jonthed

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2837 on: August 05, 2014, 12:16:25 PM »
Friv,

Thanks a lot for taking the time to explain all that! On with the show...

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2838 on: August 05, 2014, 01:26:49 PM »
Do you have a map of the wind fields for that?  With a great big high and no adjacent low, there's not so much of a pressure gradient driving meridional flow.  One of the reasons the dipole anomaly is so bad for the ice is that the combination of high+low brings in southerly winds across the ice.
Because he's posting an ensemble mean, pressure gradients (and the resulting winds) are weaker due to averaging amongst the individual deterministic model members. Use caution here.

Judging from Climate Reanalyzer (also an ensemble mean AFAIK), only another two days of light winds entering from the warm Bering Sea.  Then for the next week or so, not a whole lot of warm air or moisture moving into the Arctic from lower latitudes.  Some off the Siberian coast to areas that are mostly already melted, and some from Baffin Bay over the stubborn - so far - ice in the CAA.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2839 on: August 05, 2014, 03:04:27 PM »
I have already begun to inhale in preparation for holding my breath to see how the deniers respond to the PIOMAS volume update. "No ice volume loss since 2007", "all volume loss for 7 years erased", "Arctic climate change stopped in 2007", etc. on WTFUWT. Ready everyone?

solartim27

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2840 on: August 05, 2014, 03:57:57 PM »
My post was to show the likelihood of the dominant ridging pattern staying in place for the foreseeable future.

You can call it a mini dipole but it's already well underway over the Pacific side.

When we look at the current Jaxa graphic versus 2013 min.  The Atlantic side sticks out.  There is no indication that the ice this year will retreat anywhere near that much there.

However that is actually a relatively small area. The Pacific side is going to have to be uber resistant now to have a chance to be with 2013.  I can't see it with the current weather unfolding and how fast the ESS is crumbling.

When I look at the Atlantic side on Modis I see slush.  It looks to me like the low pressure winds will push a lot of it out the Fram, or am I missing something?
FNORD

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2841 on: August 05, 2014, 04:22:05 PM »
I have already begun to inhale in preparation for holding my breath to see how the deniers respond to the PIOMAS volume update. "No ice volume loss since 2007", "all volume loss for 7 years erased", "Arctic climate change stopped in 2007", etc. on WTFUWT. Ready everyone?

Well it has to stay that way another month.
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2842 on: August 05, 2014, 06:41:46 PM »
I have already begun to inhale in preparation for holding my breath to see how the deniers respond to the PIOMAS volume update. "No ice volume loss since 2007", "all volume loss for 7 years erased", "Arctic climate change stopped in 2007", etc. on WTFUWT. Ready everyone?

I was going to reply don't hold your breath, just show them this


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

and change the story to "No change since 2004".  Yep, the Arctic sea ice area has been in negative anomaly for every single day of the year since the end of 2004.  In fact it gets worse all the time.

Then I recalled being in a bunfight over the figures and what we are communicating.  It took me quite a while to get people to realise that they had re-baselined CT anomaly figures after 2008.  This tape used to look a LOT worse.

In that mode, I went and looked at the nsidc extent graphs.  Now I remember they were always baselined on 1981 to 2000.  Because pretty much everyone in the Arctic recognises that it was after 2000 that the decline began.

It may be good science to keep re-baselining anomaly trends, but it really sucks as a communication device.  Take nsidc, very high profile and the denialists will crow about how the line never really moves much away from -2 SD.  Never mind the fact that the SD is moving south every few years....

Perhaps we need different communication paths.  One for Scientists and one for mere humans like me.  Then we won't give people with an agenda an opening...
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jonthed

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2843 on: August 05, 2014, 07:40:36 PM »
If the Anomaly Data is being re-baselined, why not just stick to the real figures?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2844 on: August 05, 2014, 08:12:52 PM »
If the Anomaly Data is being re-baselined, why not just stick to the real figures?

Just recalulate using your own baseline, I use 1980 to 1999 for all the sea ice related data I use.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2845 on: August 05, 2014, 08:44:15 PM »
My post was to show the likelihood of the dominant ridging pattern staying in place for the foreseeable future.

You can call it a mini dipole but it's already well underway over the Pacific side.

When we look at the current Jaxa graphic versus 2013 min.  The Atlantic side sticks out.  There is no indication that the ice this year will retreat anywhere near that much there.

However that is actually a relatively small area. The Pacific side is going to have to be uber resistant now to have a chance to be with 2013.  I can't see it with the current weather unfolding and how fast the ESS is crumbling.

When I look at the Atlantic side on Modis I see slush.  It looks to me like the low pressure winds will push a lot of it out the Fram, or am I missing something?

Some very thick slush apparently.

yeah Fram export and NATL export will pick up quite a bit.  NATL export already has.


On the flip side the Russian side of the Nansen basin, Laptev, parts of the Chukchi, and ESS appear to be the areas where water will open up the most quickly.

Here is jaxa versus 2013 in terms of where ice is counted as extent.  2013 in purple.


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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2846 on: August 06, 2014, 12:10:07 AM »
If the Anomaly Data is being re-baselined, why not just stick to the real figures?

Just recalulate using your own baseline, I use 1980 to 1999 for all the sea ice related data I use.

Not the point.  The point is communication and those who would use what is communicated to present a different picture.  We can re-baseline all we want.  But if a Government agency is not and their figures are prominent, then that is what will be taken.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2847 on: August 06, 2014, 01:15:02 AM »

Perhaps we need different communication paths.  One for Scientists and one for mere humans like me.  Then we won't give people with an agenda an opening...


That rant about scientists, pretty disturbing.

Right after summer 2012 many people saying why scientists were so slow in accepting that Arctic ice probably be gone in summer 2013, 100% expectations sure by 2016, that it was socially irresponsible not to align with that perception, blah blah. I left scientists aside, but truly believed that 2013 thing (well I do science, fortunately in another discipline).

Now some of us opening to the possibility that ice-free summer not before 2020.

Here we are, enjoying a beautiful 2014 melting season. Going pretty bad for the ice, BTW, PIOMAS regardless, even if ending up above 2008 in September.

Actually I am inclined to believe scientists might be biased, toward the AGW acceptance side. Which is not good either.

I am a believer of AGW. Climate scientists must not, at least in the exercise of their profession. And it is because AGW is not even a tested theory, yet. That is why scientists take their time, and they're doing very well (ok, except for the little bias toward belief, a minor sin and good for grants).

Science is not there to awaken consciences and rise social and political awareness. Leave that to Hansen (if he is still around with his hat, into the circus business losing his credibility and making good bucks).

Sorry for the OT, again.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2848 on: August 06, 2014, 02:32:35 AM »
At first, I thought that rant was rather concern-trolly, but it's actually worse, with that ad hominem attack against James Hansen, with its straight-out-of-the-denialist play book "getting the big bucks" claim.

The 2013-2016 stuff is a perfect straw man argument. The planet is on fire, and you say, "Not so fast, the politicians are sure to fund a fire department one of these days."

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2849 on: August 06, 2014, 03:38:26 AM »
Actually I am inclined to believe scientists might be biased, toward the AGW acceptance side. Which is not good either.
Not good in the same way it is not good for biologists to accept evolution? Or geophysicists to accept plate tectonics?

AGW is the guiding paradigm of climate science, and it should be. Trying to understand the modern climate without it would be akin to trying to understand why an Oklahoma trailer park got flattened while denying the existence of tornadoes. You're doomed to failure, so you'd be a fool to try.

I have no idea what you mean by AGW not being a "tested theory." It is constantly being tested by scientists, and the theory is consistent with observation, experiment, and our understanding of physics.