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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2900 on: August 07, 2014, 11:31:25 AM »
The average altitude of the sun over the ESS today during peak insolation is about 30-33 degrees with near 400W/M2 total for a day.
Perfect answer to the previous poster, sir. You've beaten me to it... %)
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Phoenizier

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2901 on: August 07, 2014, 12:14:49 PM »
Its not all about 300 or 400 W/m².
Albedo is important and very different for different sun angles.




crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2902 on: August 07, 2014, 12:20:03 PM »

Not really, nukefix.

The effect of doubling is pretty clear, looking at (relatively) recent paleoclimate data.  Consider the Pliocene (2-5 MYA +/-)

http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/comparing-models-to-pilocene-climate-when-co2-was-last-this-high/

That article doesn't seem to give a range for climate sensitivity. Nor do I think that just quoting a paleoclimate line of evidence sufficient to say the debate over the weight to apply to paleoclimate lines of evidence is over:

Quote
Climate sensitivity is at the heart of the scientific debate on anthropogenic climate change. In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC (AR5) the different lines of evidence were combined to conclude that the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is likely in the range from 1.5°C to 4.5°C. Unfortunately this range has not narrowed since the first assessment report in 1990.

An important discussion is what the pros and cons are of the various methods and studies and how these should be weighed to arrive at a particular range and a ‘best estimate’.  The latter was not given in AR5 because of “a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence”.
http://www.climatedialogue.org/climate-sensitivity-and-transient-climate-response/

seems to suggest debate continues.

or maybe
http://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/more-on-that-recent-sensitivity-paper.html

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2903 on: August 07, 2014, 12:33:09 PM »
I really do wonder if I'm looking at the same Arctic as Friv. Yes, there's a high pressure over the ESS at the moment.  No, it's not melting in any unusual manner.

When I look at the MODIS images, the ESS is higher albedo and higher concentration even than last year.

When I look at the JAXA data on overall extent, I see that yes, the melt has picked up a bit after its brief stall - but it's still slower than most recent years.  It's basically overlying the 2009 track for the last couple of weeks, and is if anything lower than the historical average melt rate for the time of year.

I mean that last sentence absolutely literally.

Melt over the last week was -376335 km^2.  Average for the 2000s is -508913 km^2.  Average for the 90s is -455647   km^2.  Average for the 80s is -501229 km^2.

That's not a cherry picked date either.  Whether I look at the last day, the last three days, the last week, the last ten days or the last fortnight, or any value in between, the current rate of loss of Arctic sea ice is lower than the 2000s average, lower than the 1990s average, and lower than the 1980s average.

It is virtually certain now that the final minimum extent will be somewhere between that of 2009 and 2010, very close to last year's minimum.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2904 on: August 07, 2014, 12:55:23 PM »
I really do wonder if I'm looking at the same Arctic as Friv. Yes, there's a high pressure over the ESS at the moment.  No, it's not melting in any unusual manner.

True, but Friv is not commenting in any unusual manner either. He ALWAYS gets excited during periods when melt rates pick up, and posts a lot of informative graphics to show what's going on.

It might be initially confusing to newcomers, but I'm surprised you haven't figured it out yet. Friv's enthusiasm is a plus as far as I'm concerned.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2905 on: August 07, 2014, 12:58:32 PM »
He has figured it out. He's trolling.

And you have to be careful where you look not to see anything unusual happening. Perhaps average extent and area don't tell the full story?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2906 on: August 07, 2014, 02:39:02 PM »
The average altitude of the sun over the ESS today during peak insolation is about 30-33 degrees with near 400W/M2 total for a day.

That's for an hour or two at high noon there. For half the day, the angle is less than 12o and a large portion on incident radiation is reflected away. It will have an effect, but not like it would in May, June and July. There's a reason why the Arctic begins to cool in August and bottom melt becomes more dominant.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

iceman

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2907 on: August 07, 2014, 03:10:31 PM »
He has figured it out. He's trolling.

Let's save the slurs for the real trolls.  Plainly stating facts is not trolling.

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2908 on: August 07, 2014, 03:36:05 PM »
And you have to be careful where you look not to see anything unusual happening. Perhaps average extent and area don't tell the full story?

There's a new story told every year, but I don't think it's credible to say this year's story is one of anything other than a (slight) recovery, and as such it's less unusual than most recent years. Other than the marked loss in the Laptev - which I've discussed before - trying to spin this year as something unprecedented is a tale that's being told neither by extent, nor by area, nor by volume, nor by microwave measurement, nor by visible wavelength pictures.

What is the "full story" being told by, if not by the best available data on the actual, current state of the ice in the Arctic?  What else should I be looking at?

Nick:  I have worked Friv out, and believe it or not I do appreciate the excitement when it's warranted.  However if it's the only voice that newcomers see, it'll be easy to dismiss this forum as simply the opposite of WUWT - and we should be aiming for better than that.

seattlerocks

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2909 on: August 07, 2014, 03:51:18 PM »
He has figured it out. He's trolling.

And you have to be careful where you look not to see anything unusual happening. Perhaps average extent and area don't tell the full story?

Man, everybody is suspicious of being a troll here lately.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2910 on: August 07, 2014, 04:01:32 PM »
By every metric we have this year is going to be one of the worst melt seasons in modern human history.

This is a fact.  So?
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2911 on: August 07, 2014, 04:10:57 PM »
Who said this is unprecedented at large?

Once again instead of talkiing about the arctic someone keeps obsessively talking about me. 

I haven't lied or made any outlandish final predictioñs.  Yet the hard on for me continues.

Folks can give their own view if they want.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2912 on: August 07, 2014, 04:12:31 PM »
The average altitude of the sun over the ESS today during peak insolation is about 30-33 degrees with near 400W/M2 total for a day.

That's for an hour or two at high noon there. For half the day, the angle is less than 12o and a large portion on incident radiation is reflected away. It will have an effect, but not like it would in May, June and July. There's a reason why the Arctic begins to cool in August and bottom melt becomes more dominant.

Who said otherwise?

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

iceman

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2913 on: August 07, 2014, 04:41:57 PM »

What is the "full story" being told by, if not by the best available data on the actual, current state of the ice in the Arctic?  What else should I be looking at?
Actually I do think 2014 has a noteworthy story, though largely outside this thread.  During a melt season when circulation patterns don't pull much heat (sensible + latent) into the Arctic basin, more is left to be absorbed by the continental landmasses.  To the extent that Arctic amplification applies, the heat buildup will be skewed toward higher latitudes.  So the tundra takes the beating that the ice is spared.  Only that signal (permafrost melting, methane emissions, whatever) is less clear and clarion than the easily measured Arctic sea ice.


Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2914 on: August 07, 2014, 04:45:51 PM »
That's not so bad. 

 :o



Quote
Figure 3. Monthly July ice extent for 1979 to 2014 shows a decline of 7.4% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.

 

July 2014 is the 4th lowest Arctic sea ice extent in the satellite record, 340,000 square kilometers (131,000 square miles) above the previous record lows in July 2011, 2012, and 2007. The monthly linear rate of decline for July is 7.4% per decade.

 
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2915 on: August 07, 2014, 05:55:15 PM »

Not really, nukefix.

The effect of doubling is pretty clear, looking at (relatively) recent paleoclimate data.  Consider the Pliocene (2-5 MYA +/-)

http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/comparing-models-to-pilocene-climate-when-co2-was-last-this-high/

That article doesn't seem to give a range for climate sensitivity. Nor do I think that just quoting a paleoclimate line of evidence sufficient to say the debate over the weight to apply to paleoclimate lines of evidence is over:

Quote
Climate sensitivity is at the heart of the scientific debate on anthropogenic climate change. In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC (AR5) the different lines of evidence were combined to conclude that the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is likely in the range from 1.5°C to 4.5°C. Unfortunately this range has not narrowed since the first assessment report in 1990.

An important discussion is what the pros and cons are of the various methods and studies and how these should be weighed to arrive at a particular range and a ‘best estimate’.  The latter was not given in AR5 because of “a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence”.
http://www.climatedialogue.org/climate-sensitivity-and-transient-climate-response/

seems to suggest debate continues.

or maybe
http://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/more-on-that-recent-sensitivity-paper.html
I'll peek at the papers later, but I think perhaps we are in part quibbling over definitions, in particular the meaning of "sensitivity" in this context. 

The link I posted was just the first that came to hand to illustrate my point.  Some people may still be debating, but if anything it is about scale and timing, not eventual outcome. The paleoclimate literature I've looked at is pretty clear in that regard.

Ther are other factors of course, which is why I pulled my response using a more recent time frame (Pliocene), to stay in context with topography and solar conditions closer to our own.  Even not accounting for those, the evidence of impact across time from 400ppm+ CO2 in my view is starkly clear.
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2916 on: August 07, 2014, 06:28:22 PM »
What else should I be looking at?
I wish I had an answer for you, but afaik the needed measurements don't yet exist. But to me it seems obvious that extent and area (and modelled thickness) are far from sufficient. Some ideas that immediately come to mind of what we need to know are: floe size (area and thickness) distribution, mobility, total heat content required to melt, etc.

Just because we don't have a microscope, doesn't mean microbes are imaginary. Yes, look at the available measurements, as well as any other images or data you can, but always keep in mind their limitations, what might be happening that they are unable to tell you. Or be prepared for a mighty surprise...

And sorry for the troll comment, but it seemed like you may have been taking a poke at Friv, just for impact.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2917 on: August 07, 2014, 06:38:09 PM »
Yes, but jury is still out on what is the climate sensitivity (for a doubling of CO2-levels from pre-industrial levels).
Not really, nukefix.

The effect of doubling is pretty clear, looking at (relatively) recent paleoclimate data.  Consider the Pliocene (2-5 MYA +/-)

http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/comparing-models-to-pilocene-climate-when-co2-was-last-this-high/

I'll peek at the papers later, but I think perhaps we are in part quibbling over definitions, in particular the meaning of "sensitivity" in this context. 

The link I posted was just the first that came to hand to illustrate my point.  Some people may still be debating, but if anything it is about scale and timing, not eventual outcome. The paleoclimate literature I've looked at is pretty clear in that regard.

Ther are other factors of course, which is why I pulled my response using a more recent time frame (Pliocene), to stay in context with topography and solar conditions closer to our own.  Even not accounting for those, the evidence of impact across time from 400ppm+ CO2 in my view is starkly clear.

Sorry if I misunderstood you.

Completely agree that "Some people may still be debating, but if anything it is about scale and timing, not eventual outcome.". At least as far as the scientists are concerned, debate is certainly about scale not about whether or not it might be tiny.

I think the (scientific) Jury is in on whether climate sensitivity is greater than 0.5C or even 1C. It is.
There is still scientific debate about CS and whether it is nearer 1.5C or nearer 4.5C for a CO2 doubling.

Your response to nukefix seemed to be disagreeing with that position. My links provided evidence of continued debate between scientific protagonists such as James Annan and Nic Lewis.

If asked if I thought the 'eventual outcome' depended on climate sensitivity, I would suggest yes. So we may have different views on what 'eventual outcome' means hence my change to whether or not tiny. I thought nukefix was pretty clear on what climate sensitivity he was talking about.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2918 on: August 07, 2014, 06:44:45 PM »
That's not so bad. 

 :o

Ya, but it's great compared to the 3 worst years, and we're about the same as the next lowest  2 or 3... Things are looking up!  :P
« Last Edit: August 07, 2014, 07:16:54 PM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

zworld

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2919 on: August 07, 2014, 06:59:46 PM »
In 2011 thru 2012 I worked on investigating effects from Fukushima. One effect noticed instantly was the largest ever Arctic ozone hole that appeared within days after the accident. Being caused by atmospheric tritium, iodine and xenon from Fukushima was at the time suggested.

I have since lost track of the ozone situation, but have wondered if it wasn't partly to blame for the big melt in 2012. (If memory serves though the hole was much smaller for 2012).

If this is off the wall, please ignore. My question isn't concerning the ozone hole, but what might have caused it. If it was caused by Fukushima, likely the tritium and iodine expulsion, could this be one reason that the melt this year and last are not in the same league as 2012, or for that matter 2011, especially considering the freezing point of tritium.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2920 on: August 07, 2014, 07:09:07 PM »


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

DoomInTheUK

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2921 on: August 07, 2014, 07:13:03 PM »
Zworld,

Interesting. I can certainly imagine that it would have some effect, but it wouldn't be the main cause. As ever with these things, there is never just one cause, or even usually an overriding main cause. It's a combination of lots of positive and negative effects that combine in multiple ways over a season.

Just one more thing to add into the mix along with smoke from wildfires, river runoff, weather, industrial pollution, and on and on.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2922 on: August 07, 2014, 07:23:32 PM »
That's not so bad. 

 :o

Ya, but it's great compared to the 3 worst years, and we're about the same as the next lowest  2 or 3... Things are looking up!  :P

Being 5th-7th worst in 1400 years isn't so bad.  Once you dig deep.  I mean really deep and convince yourself that 2007 was the beginning of time things don't look so bad. 



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2923 on: August 07, 2014, 07:35:28 PM »
He has figured it out. He's trolling.

And you have to be careful where you look not to see anything unusual happening. Perhaps average extent and area don't tell the full story?

Classic misdirection.

Friv is certainly not trolling.

Trolls don't give solid data.  Trolls don't spend ages digging up information for people, trolls don't give factual accounts.

Trolls say half truths and challenge from misdirected positions and then point fingers at others.

I said one thing to Friv and the result was thought, analysis and taking it on board.  That's not a troll, that's an enthusiast.

I know, we've all been there.  Zealous, looking at figures and reading more into it than is likely to happen. But, again, this is the arctic, it really _could_ happen.  Year on Year the most bizarre stuff happens in the Cryoshpere. 

So if Friv wants to make a big deal of it and use OMG phrases?  +1 from me.
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TeaPotty

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2924 on: August 07, 2014, 07:49:55 PM »
That's not so bad. 

 :o

Ya, but it's great compared to the 3 worst years, and we're about the same as the next lowest  2 or 3... Things are looking up!  :P

Being 5th-7th worst in 1400 years isn't so bad.  Once you dig deep.  I mean really deep and convince yourself that 2007 was the beginning of time things don't look so bad. 

Exactly. Anyone who even tries to use the word "pause" or "recovery" to describe recent years is going against all the observational and historical data that shows otherwise.

In addition, most scientific model predictions about the Arctic have proven so laughably and conservatively wrong, that complaining about alarmism is 100% concern trolling. I am sure others like myself have little stomach for this nonsense.

It's troubling to see more of those pushing their objectivist faith propaganda on this forum recently. Objectivists are ideological trolls by definition, imposing unproven beliefs of impartiality as Science. The very act of asking others to refrain from advocacy is inherently unobjective advocacy in itself, fairly obviously hiding an agenda behind that high horse they like to sit on.

Humans aren't objective. Science aspires to be. If u want to point out that someone can be more objective somehow, let the data speak for itself.

« Last Edit: August 07, 2014, 09:38:42 PM by TeaPotty »

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2925 on: August 07, 2014, 07:59:02 PM »
In 2011 thru 2012 I worked on investigating effects from Fukushima. One effect noticed instantly was the largest ever Arctic ozone hole that appeared within days after the accident. Being caused by atmospheric tritium, iodine and xenon from Fukushima was at the time suggested.

I have since lost track of the ozone situation, but have wondered if it wasn't partly to blame for the big melt in 2012. (If memory serves though the hole was much smaller for 2012).

If this is off the wall, please ignore. My question isn't concerning the ozone hole, but what might have caused it. If it was caused by Fukushima, likely the tritium and iodine expulsion, could this be one reason that the melt this year and last are not in the same league as 2012, or for that matter 2011, especially considering the freezing point of tritium.

Google Books.

Natural flux estimates of between 250 and 1500 Gg per year (Gg = 1,000,000,000 grammes).

Wikipedia.
Quote
A later, 12 April 2011, NISA and NSC report estimated the total air release of iodine-131 at 130 PBq and 150 PBq, respectively – about 30 grams.[

i.e. Fukushima was around 0.00000000001 of natural emission. Here in the realm of engineering in UK the technical term for such an effect is 'bugger all'.

You can readily try the same sort of thing for the other meterials you mentioned.

PS - don't go trying the radiation angle with regards the iodine until you've looked at things like the solar wind and neutron flux from cosmic rays.

EDIT - check out the Pacific North American Pattern if you want a reasonable starting point for why the last two years have been as they have.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2014, 09:34:06 PM by ChrisReynolds »

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2926 on: August 07, 2014, 09:18:10 PM »
He has figured it out. He's trolling.

And you have to be careful where you look not to see anything unusual happening. Perhaps average extent and area don't tell the full story?

Classic misdirection.

Friv is certainly not trolling.

I was actually trying to say that Peter Ellis was trolling, which was also wrong. If anyone acted like a troll, it appears to have been me. Apologies (again).

+1 for sticking up for Friv.  ;)
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2927 on: August 07, 2014, 11:00:26 PM »
Yeah sorry I probably slapped you a bit hard. Not sleeping very well.
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2928 on: August 08, 2014, 12:38:21 AM »

Exactly. Anyone who even tries to use the word "pause" or "recovery" to describe recent years is going against all the observational and historical data that shows otherwise.



So what do you call an increase in PIOMAS volume over two years that reverses the loss of the previous 5 years?  Or we can't talk about it at all until the gain is comparable to the ice lost over the last 1400 years?

Can we still talk about the ice lost last week though?  Although that was less than nearly every other year of the last 10.  So maybe we can only talk about the ice that is going to be lost in the next week, as that might be unusually high.  Certainly looks like good conditions for rapid melt, but it hasn't happened yet, and thats what I thought a week ago. 

If we are then going to be unbiased should we then only when the amount of ice lost in the last week when it is comparable to the amount of ice lost over the last 1400 years?

I think there is no better word for what is happening right now than recovery.  As long as it is noted in the context of the longer term downward trend and that it is only temporary.  Of course temporary could end up more than a decade.  To me this recovery is more significant than pure random noise.  The two years of recovery has changed my opinion of the possibility of ice free conditions by 2020 from quite reasonable but not guaranteed to extremely unlikely.  It has not changed my opinion one iota on the inevitability of ice free conditions sooner or later.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2929 on: August 08, 2014, 12:43:26 AM »

Exactly. Anyone who even tries to use the word "pause" or "recovery" to describe recent years is going against all the observational and historical data that shows otherwise.



So what do you call an increase in PIOMAS volume over two years that reverses the loss of the previous 5 years?  Or we can't talk about it at all until the gain is comparable to the ice lost over the last 1400 years?

Can we still talk about the ice lost last week though?  Although that was less than nearly every other year of the last 10.  So maybe we can only talk about the ice that is going to be lost in the next week, as that might be unusually high.  Certainly looks like good conditions for rapid melt, but it hasn't happened yet, and thats what I thought a week ago. 

If we are then going to be unbiased should we then only when the amount of ice lost in the last week when it is comparable to the amount of ice lost over the last 1400 years?

I think there is no better word for what is happening right now than recovery.  As long as it is noted in the context of the longer term downward trend and that it is only temporary.  Of course temporary could end up more than a decade.  To me this recovery is more significant than pure random noise.  The two years of recovery has changed my opinion of the possibility of ice free conditions by 2020 from quite reasonable but not guaranteed to extremely unlikely.  It has not changed my opinion one iota on the inevitability of ice free conditions sooner or later.

It's a regression to the mean, 2012 was a year of exceptional loss due to a confluence of events that won't be repeated for a little while. This melt season is likely to end below 2013 on the majority of metrics. I wouldn't call it a recovery because that implies the underlying conditions have gone away.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2930 on: August 08, 2014, 01:27:53 AM »
Zworld,

Interesting. I can certainly imagine that it would have some effect, but it wouldn't be the main cause. As ever with these things, there is never just one cause, or even usually an overriding main cause. It's a combination of lots of positive and negative effects that combine in multiple ways over a season.

Just one more thing to add into the mix along with smoke from wildfires, river runoff, weather, industrial pollution, and on and on.

Thanks DoomInTheUK. I guess that's what I was doing, just adding a possible factor to the equation.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2931 on: August 08, 2014, 01:35:20 AM »
MH--
Quote
I think there is no better word for what is happening right now than recovery.

"Recovery" in the sense that there has been a "pause" in global warming. Denialists claim that there has been no global warming since 1998, even though together with 1998, every year since 2002 has been among the warmest on record. I mentioned this on another thread, but no child born after I think it was April 1985 has known a world with a single month that was less hot than the previous average.

To convince yourself that two years make up a trend, after an anomalously low 2012, is to make the same argument as the denialist/lukewarmist camp.

As observers, we are watching the inevitable demise of the arctic ice as a fascinating phenomenon; as a human being and parent, I watch it with growing horror.

This year may be eighth, may be sixth lowest, but it's not really buying us much time. The time for action is ten or fifteen years ago, but given that we can't time travel, the time is today.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2932 on: August 08, 2014, 01:52:35 AM »
It's a regression to the mean, 2012 was a year of exceptional loss due to a confluence of events that won't be repeated for a little while. This melt season is likely to end below 2013 on the majority of metrics. I wouldn't call it a recovery because that implies the underlying conditions have gone away.

I think the jury's very much out on whether this year ends up below 2013 for any metric other than "ice in the northern Laptev sea". Apart from that though, I do agree with you. My overall take-home is that yes, it's a regression to the mean. Moreover,  it's now becoming apparent that the long-term decline continues to be linear rather than exponential, and as such I'd revise my opinion from "Ice free by 2020" to "Ice free by 2040-2050".  Shame really, since I actually have 50 quid as a bet with William Connolley (http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/ ) that Maslowski was right to predict we'll be ice free by 2016 +/- 3 years.  I'm now pretty sure I'll have to pay out on that one.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2933 on: August 08, 2014, 01:58:27 AM »

i.e. Fukushima was around 0.00000000001 of natural emission. Here in the realm of engineering in UK the technical term for such an effect is 'bugger all'.

You can readily try the same sort of thing for the other meterials you mentioned.

PS - don't go trying the radiation angle with regards the iodine until you've looked at things like the solar wind and neutron flux from cosmic rays.

EDIT - check out the Pacific North American Pattern if you want a reasonable starting point for why the last two years have been as they have.

Thanks Chris. Actually tritium is the only concern I have, and that is because it is still the most common contaminant being released from Fukushima, can not be measured in the atmosphere (if memory serves), and would have an effect on both ice formation and melt.

One thing that needs to be understood is that all reports on levels of release for all radionuclides from TEPCO, NRC, UN etc are considered far off the mark. Most who did deep research on Fukushima suspect many times the levels reported. The classic example is the lawsuit brought by the Navy personnel from the carrier that was stationed off the coast of Japan. They were subjected to far higher levels of contaminants than TEPCO admitted to.

But it is as DITUK stated, a possible contributor to add to the list, and we will probably never know if it did and to what extent.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2934 on: August 08, 2014, 02:14:13 AM »
There's a new story told every year, but I don't think it's credible to say this year's story is one of anything other than a (slight) recovery

"Slight recovery" would be melting along the 1980s melt path (for the whole melting season).  A year that is horrible but not as horrible as a bunch of other recent horrible years is in no sense a recovery, slight or otherwise.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2935 on: August 08, 2014, 02:21:54 AM »

Exactly. Anyone who even tries to use the word "pause" or "recovery" to describe recent years is going against all the observational and historical data that shows otherwise.



So what do you call an increase in PIOMAS volume over two years that reverses the loss of the previous 5 years?  Or we can't talk about it at all until the gain is comparable to the ice lost over the last 1400 years?

Can we still talk about the ice lost last week though?  Although that was less than nearly every other year of the last 10.  So maybe we can only talk about the ice that is going to be lost in the next week, as that might be unusually high.  Certainly looks like good conditions for rapid melt, but it hasn't happened yet, and thats what I thought a week ago. 

If we are then going to be unbiased should we then only when the amount of ice lost in the last week when it is comparable to the amount of ice lost over the last 1400 years?

I think there is no better word for what is happening right now than recovery.  As long as it is noted in the context of the longer term downward trend and that it is only temporary.  Of course temporary could end up more than a decade.  To me this recovery is more significant than pure random noise.  The two years of recovery has changed my opinion of the possibility of ice free conditions by 2020 from quite reasonable but not guaranteed to extremely unlikely.  It has not changed my opinion one iota on the inevitability of ice free conditions sooner or later.

Yes, it is almost certainly statistical noise. It is certainly not a recovery unless and until the minimum trends up for well more than 2 years in a row.


http://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-sea-ice-recovers-to-6th-lowest-extent-in-millennia.html
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2936 on: August 08, 2014, 02:25:31 AM »
There's a new story told every year, but I don't think it's credible to say this year's story is one of anything other than a (slight) recovery

"Slight recovery" would be melting along the 1980s melt path (for the whole melting season).  A year that is horrible but not as horrible as a bunch of other recent horrible years is in no sense a recovery, slight or otherwise.

This is quite important if things like arctic sea floor methane clathrate destruction is realistic to someone.

For most folks who spend a lot of time on denier sites this doesn't exist but neither does AGW.






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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2937 on: August 08, 2014, 02:58:43 AM »
We still have a long way to go.  Although reading this forum it appears the melt season is over already.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2938 on: August 08, 2014, 03:11:06 AM »
The ice between Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg Islands broke into some impressive chunks today, (~20-30 km)^2. Beautiful looking ice, too, sheltered between the islands. I wonder how long these huge floes will survive. Ice just to the south of this disintegrated over the last few days and is moving south (compare to Aug 3, the last cloud-free photo).

Similar just east of Victoria Island and elsewhere. CAA may be ready to drop.

http://1.usa.gov/1r3Am9i
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2939 on: August 08, 2014, 03:13:00 AM »
Wow, that image for the 14th - 15th is amazing.  There will be a great improvement for the Atlantic side sea ice area and extent (or is it extant).  It's another boom year. 
FNORD

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2940 on: August 08, 2014, 03:23:44 AM »
We still have a long way to go.  Although reading this forum it appears the melt season is over already.

Not by a long shot. This is the most interesting part.

Looks like there may be some pretty serious gradients in about a week from ESS to Kara. I suppose this might lead to some serious export, if the ice is fragmented enough (which it is).

See also:

The following animation shows that some ice is going for the exit called Fram Strait. More ice is taking the exit to the Barents Sea through the "Victoria Channel".
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2941 on: August 08, 2014, 03:51:20 AM »

Yes, it is almost certainly statistical noise. It is certainly not a recovery unless and until the minimum trends up for well more than 2 years in a row.


http://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-sea-ice-recovers-to-6th-lowest-extent-in-millennia.html

The jump from 2012 to 2013 is roughly equal to the largest previous single season jump.  I would argue that if the final September value this year has an equal increase that the trend has been broken and that we have a significant 'recovery' and the trend line on that chart has been broken and a new trend has to be found.  Although it takes more than 2 years to establish a trend, it only takes one value to break a trend if that value is exceptional enough.  However I doubt we will see a large enough jump in final minimum to break the trend at this stage.  However before 2014 started I was confident that 2013 was at the very top of likely variation, and that with a steep downward trend we were 99% likely to see a drop this year.  Considering the weather has been mixed, and we are only 50/50 at best of seeing a drop I am quite stunnned.

And then we look at PIOMAS for July:



This value is 3000 km^3 above the trend.  I cannot find any value for any month that is more than half this amount above the trend, although there are some values that are over 2000 km^3 below the trend, but these are in 1981, and off a l larger base.

I would consider this to be far enough above the trend that the trend is now likely broken.   From a rough eyeball I'd say that the 2014 would fit ok with a linear trend drawn through the data.  Before 2013 it looked very much like a non-linear trend was a better fit to the data then a linear trend, and if I remember right Tamino had done some analysis to show this statistically.  As the extent trend predicted an ice free Arctic much later than the PIOMAS volume trend, it was inevitable that one of them or the other would break sooner or later.

So something more significant than pure random noise has happened, as one trend which was reasonable is now no longer reasonable, even if other less aggressive downward trends still remain reasonable.  I would call this a recovery, if only a recovery from a non-linear accelerating downward trend to a smoothly downward linear trend.  If you have a better word to describe this I'm happy to use it.  I certainly do not want to suggest recovery in the sense that some deniers try and pretend that the Arctic is going to totally recover to what it was 50 years ago and that nothing more than natural cycles is going on.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2942 on: August 08, 2014, 03:52:03 AM »
Going thru changes:

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2943 on: August 08, 2014, 03:53:29 AM »
There is no way this years extent jumps equal to 2012 to 2013.

It will be lucky to even stay with 2013. 

As for Piomas again your making big assumptions about how this is going to end.
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2944 on: August 08, 2014, 04:02:19 AM »
Going thru changes:

Wow! Seems like about half of the ESS lost some serious concentration today (~20% ?) I wonder why that might have happened... ;)

Also, that big polynya-ish thing off Barrow, which looks to be about a century all on it's own, and which is thus far barely registering on (at least some -- or most?) extent measures, seems about ready to go poof.



http://1.usa.gov/1mr7C7k
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2945 on: August 08, 2014, 04:09:27 AM »
So something more significant than pure random noise has happened.
If you want to convince me of this (not that you do), then quantify it. "Significance" implies a statistical test.

To me it just looks like the death throes of the canary.

---

Edit: Also, as Friv points out:

There is no way this years extent jumps equal to 2012 to 2013.
The current extent is above the 2013 minimum by about the same amount as the 2013 minimum was above 2012. Do you think the ice is not going to melt any more this year?

(NSIDC rough numbers: 2012, ~3.4 million km2; 2013, ~ 5.1 (+1.7); 2014 (Aug 6), ~ 6.8 ...)
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 04:26:29 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2946 on: August 08, 2014, 04:20:23 AM »
Going thru changes:

Wow! Seems like about half of the ESS lost some serious concentration today (~20% ?) I wonder why that might have happened... ;)

Also, that big polynya-ish thing off Barrow, which looks to be about a century all on it's own, and which is thus far barely registering on (at least some -- or most?) extent measures, seems about ready to go poof.


Whether or not it all melts out remains to be seen but it's taking a beating over a large area that isn't going to let up.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2947 on: August 08, 2014, 04:53:15 AM »
That's not so bad. 

 :o



Quote
Figure 3. Monthly July ice extent for 1979 to 2014 shows a decline of 7.4% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.

 

July 2014 is the 4th lowest Arctic sea ice extent in the satellite record, 340,000 square kilometers (131,000 square miles) above the previous record lows in July 2011, 2012, and 2007. The monthly linear rate of decline for July is 7.4% per decade.

 

How strange.  I calculated all the days in the Month of July and show a monthly 2014 average extent of 10.97639 (10^6 sq km), the highest since 2004.  Can someone explain what I'm obviously missing?


Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2948 on: August 08, 2014, 04:58:55 AM »
That's not so bad. 

 :o



Quote
Figure 3. Monthly July ice extent for 1979 to 2014 shows a decline of 7.4% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.

 

July 2014 is the 4th lowest Arctic sea ice extent in the satellite record, 340,000 square kilometers (131,000 square miles) above the previous record lows in July 2011, 2012, and 2007. The monthly linear rate of decline for July is 7.4% per decade.

 

How strange.  I calculated all the days in the Month of July and show a monthly 2014 average extent of 10.97639 (10^6 sq km), the highest since 2004.  Can someone explain what I'm obviously missing?

Either methodology or the data you used.  You can get the daily data from the link below.

It shows July 1st at 9.4 mil km2 or so already.


ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/
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ChasingIce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #2949 on: August 08, 2014, 05:04:47 AM »
Nope, I found it.

I was trying to pull numbers through a filtered pivot table, and obviously don't know enough about excel cuz that didn't work. 

OPERATOR ERROR!