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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3050 on: August 10, 2014, 05:24:05 PM »
There is zero chance 2014 is out of the top 10 on any metric of volume, area, or extent. 

In other news the latest GFS goes full nasty dipole.

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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3051 on: August 10, 2014, 06:07:22 PM »
The shape of the ice pack in September will be much like 2011.

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3052 on: August 10, 2014, 06:44:07 PM »
Some people recently discussed this issue of re-baselining the area/extent data, and I agree with those who felt it sends the wrong message. I actually think the whole idea of finding an average in a system that is clearly trending in one direction or the other to be scientifically dubious. It underfits the data and leads to spurious conclusions about their meaning in a way that is analogous to overfitting. While having a baseline is important, it makes more sense to show the trend with the anomaly superimposed, like is done with PIOMAS.

Another approach that I like the the JAXA extent graph, which shows the averages of the 80's, 90's, and 00's (I wish they'd add some earlier decades based on other estimates/proxies). Looking at the graph makes the trend clear, and puts recent years in context. I think they should drop 2007, since it's included in the 00's average, and add 2010 and 2013. If they did that, an important truth would emerge: every year of the 2010's has been below the 00's average (as can be seen by inspecting the old-style graph). This year probably won't be an exception -- if it is, it won't be by much unless something unprecedented happens -- and puts lie to the idea that any kind of recovery is underway.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3053 on: August 10, 2014, 07:47:09 PM »
The 12z GFS follows the 06z with a traditional dipole.

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3054 on: August 10, 2014, 08:40:04 PM »
A fairly clear view from on high today of the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas.

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#ESS
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3055 on: August 10, 2014, 08:59:12 PM »
That swirly ice in the Chukchi is super stubborn but it can't be that thick. 

It's presence probably offers some protection for the ice pack in the ESS from that side by retarding the pace of heat uptake by the waters there.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3056 on: August 10, 2014, 09:27:19 PM »
Eyeballing, it looks to me there's not much left of what I've been calling 'mesh-pattern' ice. This pattern, that I held to be the visual aspect of strong, multi-year ice, once filling large parts of the Arctic Ocean, is now visible only in a part of MODIS tile r04c03, NW of the Canadian Archipelago.
The pattern is almost crushed out of tile r03c03, N of the Nares Strait.

When I hold true to my 'experience', I'd say all usual parameters extent, area and volume do not exclusively represent the actual state of the ice....

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3057 on: August 10, 2014, 09:33:44 PM »
Hmm, just eye balling ice concentration maps for the next few days I think 2014 will overtake 2013 , 2010 and 2011 on the 13th.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3058 on: August 10, 2014, 10:07:12 PM »
Hmm, just eye balling ice concentration maps for the next few days I think 2014 will overtake 2013 , 2010 and 2011 on the 13th.


No chance of that Man. The ice has taken a beating the last 10 days in many spots.  But it's not that close to melting out.




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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3059 on: August 10, 2014, 10:18:50 PM »
Certainly looking more like a whimper than a bang.

I'd guess that this seasons final melt figure will depend on just how far into September the melt continues.  That or one or two large storms.

It would not be the first time I'd seen it go on and on and on to the surprise of everyone.

My take is that the joker in the pack is the sheer broken up state of the ice.  I believe that is why we can see such sudden and massive impact over truly huge areas of the ice just because the weather changes.  I see it as hanging in so long as the weather does not finish it off.

I always like to remember that both extent and area will count an area as full ice coverage even if it has 1cm of ice on it.  That, in itself, impacts the PIOMAS volume readings.
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Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3060 on: August 10, 2014, 11:07:54 PM »
Hmm, just eye balling ice concentration maps for the next few days I think 2014 will overtake 2013 , 2010 and 2011 on the 13th.


No chance of that Man. The ice has taken a beating the last 10 days in many spots.  But it's not that close to melting out.

I don't mean that the ice will beat the minimum for those years on the 13th I mean the 2014 measures should be below those years for the same date. Significant catch up is taking place in the ess and I expect it to over take 2013 at the very least by the 13th.

2013 13th aug


vs

2014 9th aug


Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3061 on: August 10, 2014, 11:28:39 PM »
This got super long. tl;dr: There is no recovery. If the exponential trend is no longer a good fit for the data, the entire trend should be replaced with another function, which will not show a recovery.

agreed

I hope it's not piling on to respond to Michael Hauber. One thing to be careful about is whether we are all using language the same way.


I wanted to be controversial and provocative.  I believe that a robust argument, and thoughtful skepticisim will lead to an increase in understanding.  I appreciate all the thoughtful responses, but get frustrated by what appears to me to be knee-jerk reactions from those who haven't understood what I'm trying to say.  Which could be just as much my fault for being unclear as anyone else.  I hate that deniers call themselves skeptics when they are anything but, and I hate that I see some signs of 'group think' in conventional circles as a reaction to the stupidity of the other side and perhaps a fear of saying or hearing anything that might in any way resemble their nonsense.

I was referring specifically to the chart showing the July PIOMAS volume for each year.  It can be found in the long term charts section of this blog, and probably other places.

The big question in my mind.  Arctic ice has melted much faster than many models have predicted.  By that I mean the models that predict an ice free Arctic in the 2050-2100 time frame.  This may be because we need better models that predict a faster melt - perhaps there is a feedback the models are missing or a process that is not being modelled correctly.  Perhaps a multi-decade natural variation such as PDO is causing it.  Or some of both.  Until we can answer this question, we do not have a good understanding of how far the ice would increase if any natural variation which is contributing to the downward trend were to reverse.  Considering how far we are ahead of the models, and what has happened in Antarctic, I do not think we can rule out periods of increase of 20 years or more.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3062 on: August 10, 2014, 11:32:45 PM »
I know what your saying.  I just can't see that much of that ice vanishing that quickly.  Plus the Canadian Arpichelago is doing better than those years by far.  Even 2013 so far.

I see a steady methodical drop the rest of the month. The winds are not that favorable for 2/3rds of the ESS right now for larger losses.  But that is supposed to change by the end of the week.

Both globals have a much more traditional dipole towards Thursday onwards.  The Laptev/Nansen basin are really under the gun for a while.

I think by the end this year if the dipole stays relatively intact a 2008 finish could happen.






We can see the Laptev bite area just keeps growing while the Nansen Basin side is as well but more slowly.  But that is under the gun hard for the foreseeable future.  I'd guess a large area of open water up to 85N will be carved out.

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Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3063 on: August 11, 2014, 12:17:14 AM »
There is zero chance 2014 is out of the top 10 on any metric of volume, area, or extent. 

Extent, area, and volume have all but stalled, recording their shallowest peak-season declines in years. CT area is in the eighth position and falling; JAXA extent is in sixth, and dropping back; PIOMAS volume was also in sixth at the end of July. There are at most six weeks left in this melt season, and more likely just four or five. Insolation is dropping precipitously at this point, especially at the highest latitudes, and this is the time of year when *all* the metrics start flaring towards their respective minima...

And so on.

Now, the current temperature forecast charts do seem to suggest some large impending decreases, but it's important to remember that many of the maps being tossed about show temperature anomalies, and not actual temperatures, so while the coming weather may be warmer than normal in spots, that doesn't mean it's going to be ice-meltingly warm. So for those reasons, I repeat: it's possible to likely that the major ASI metrics may end up out of the top ten...

The ice has taken a beating the last 10 days in many spots.

That's possible--some of the images seem to support that statement--but one sure wouldn't know it from looking at the numbers...

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3064 on: August 11, 2014, 12:55:35 AM »
No it's not.

The current 9th and 10th lowest years on Jaxa record are 2004 and 2006 both around 5.7 million. 

2014 is currently at 6,259,129 km2.  With 30 days to go in the melt season roughly.  That would require roughly 18K per day or less in losses.


CT is at 4.55 or so according to the thread on here.  To get out of the top 10.  It would have to drop only -400K or less the rest of the way.  Or about -13K per day.


Piomas is already 10th lowest on record as of July 31st.  There is no chance for it to be anywhere below 8th lowest and it's likely to be 5th lowest





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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3065 on: August 11, 2014, 01:44:28 AM »
No it's not.

The current 9th and 10th lowest years on Jaxa record are 2004 and 2006 both around 5.7 million. 

2014 is currently at 6,259,129 km2.  With 30 days to go in the melt season roughly.  That would require roughly 18K per day or less in losses.


CT is at 4.55 or so according to the thread on here.  To get out of the top 10.  It would have to drop only -400K or less the rest of the way.  Or about -13K per day.


Piomas is already 10th lowest on record as of July 31st.  There is no chance for it to be anywhere below 8th lowest and it's likely to be 5th lowest
Good points, all. And it supports my earlier observation that this year will be below the 00's average, meaning that all five years of the of the 10's (so far) will be below that average. That's not the signature of a recovery, that's the signature of a continuing trend. Maybe even an accelerating trend.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3066 on: August 11, 2014, 02:34:03 AM »
The 18z GFS has a dipole we haven't really seen since 2012.




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wili

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3067 on: August 11, 2014, 03:11:45 AM »
Good point. If that high on the Canada side and low on the Asian side stay in place for any length of time, we'll need to hang on to our hats!

uni-bremen ice concentration map for August 10 is out, and surprisingly (to me, anyway) it shows a slight increase in concentration in some areas north of the Bering Strait. I really thought all that light yellow and green stuff would be gone in no time. I guess this late in the season, things can start refreezing as easily as melting. Or was this compaction?
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« Last Edit: August 11, 2014, 06:18:49 AM by wili »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3068 on: August 11, 2014, 06:26:13 AM »
During the last couple of years the sea ice loss per IARC-JAXA from now and until the minima have been in the range of 0,8-1,6 Mn km2 with 2012 having the biggest loss while 2006 had the lowest. Therefore we should conclude that 2014 minima will end up somewhere in the range of 4,5-5,3 Mn km2. Given the favorable conditions that are present right now I think it's prudent to believe the 2014 minima will be about 4,7-4,8 Mn km2 meaning a minima just slightly below 2013.

Given thae fact that the ice around Svalbard is so "extensive" this year I wouldn't be surprised if we are going to see the minima occur late or very late this year. Current forecast supports ice transport through Fram and Olga Strait...

cesium62

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3069 on: August 11, 2014, 08:16:35 AM »
Good point. If that high on the Canada side and low on the Asian side stay in place for any length of time, we'll need to hang on to our hats!

As an amateur with no skill at reading pressure maps, I really enjoy it when you all publish an absolute temperature map and/or a wind map.  Relative temperature is mildly interesting just so we can see how things different from normal.  The pressure maps are pretty, and I appreciate seeing them, so please don't take this the wrong way.

In the meantime...  Why is a high over the Archipelago and a low over the Laptev interesting?

wili

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3070 on: August 11, 2014, 08:43:22 AM »
I'm a rank amateur myself, but my meager understanding is that this pattern allows for heat to be drawn in from the Asian mainland, and also tends to push ice out of the Fram Strait between Greenland and Iceland. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_dipole_anomaly

But I'm sure others can and will give you fuller and more accurate explanations.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3071 on: August 11, 2014, 12:07:13 PM »
The 'Jenga Tower' of ice over Fram is something that has my attention. How much ice could we lose should we see a di-pole set up over the coming weeks?

We know that in the 80's the basin lost high volumes of ice , through Fram, over winter so could we see the beginning of another phase of such high export losses?

 The summer warmed waters drifting north into Fram will have no problems in melting that ice ( no matter what temps are across the high Arctic) so it is not just a melt season issue but a longer term 'ice conditioning' one with FY ice replacing any ice lost.

 The transport to the Atlantic side of the basin of lots of 'good ice' this year, and then the reversal of Fram for long periods, has lead to that ice backing up over the exit and across the Atlantic side of the Trans Polar drift. We already know that the obstacles that used to slow exit via Fram ( land fast ice /ice bridges/dams) no longer exist and that the ice itself is well fragmented and thin ( faster transport potential).

Though this summer may well be a good 'rebound year' this does not mean it is 'good' for the Basin? With the pacific side pretty well melted ( FY ice for next year) could we also see the Atlantic side (from now and into winter) lose its ice and so end up with a large proportion of FY ice in time for next years melt season?

We might see a situation where extent/area have us face another bout of WUWT-esque derision at ice free basin predictions whilst watching the Atlantic side of the basin lose its older ice to the atlantic.

I ,for one, will be following the fate of the ice over our side of the basin for the rest of the year!
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3072 on: August 11, 2014, 12:28:45 PM »
As an amateur with no skill at reading pressure maps, I really enjoy it when you all publish an absolute temperature map and/or a wind map.  Relative temperature is mildly interesting just so we can see how things different from normal.  The pressure maps are pretty, and I appreciate seeing them, so please don't take this the wrong way.

In the meantime...  Why is a high over the Archipelago and a low over the Laptev interesting?

Cesium62, here is a short explanation I wrote back in 2010 on the ASIB:

Atmospheric pressures determine where low-pressure areas (cyclones) and high-pressure areas (anti-cyclones) are situated. Along the edges of such systems winds are either blowing in an anti-clockwise fashion (cyclones) or a clockwise fashion (anti-cyclones). The magnitude of the pressure determines how strong these winds are.

The way these pressure areas are distributed over the Arctic are a big factor in the annual extent decrease. Especially now, at the end of the melting season. The Beaufort Gyre, the clockwise movement of the ice pack from the Pacific side of the Arctic towards the Atlantic side, is dependent on a high over the Beaufort Sea. Combined with a low over the Siberian coast, preferably between the Kara and Laptev Seas, the Transpolar Drift Stream is activated and transports a lot of ice through Fram Strait. The stable positioning of these two poles opposite each other is known as the Arctic Dipole Anomaly.

This is what you get when that happens:



The sea ice gets compacted towards the coasts of Greenland, Ellesmere Island and the rest of the Canadian Archipelago, and it gets transported towards Fram Strait where it melts out in warmer southern waters. A double whammy, as the American expression goes.
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3073 on: August 11, 2014, 01:09:16 PM »
Is it just my imagination, or can we now see underneath the floe upon which what I assume is ITP 70 is sitting?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#OBuoy10

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3074 on: August 11, 2014, 01:16:07 PM »
Is it just my imagination, or can we now see underneath the floe upon which what I assume is ITP 70 is sitting?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#OBuoy10

I believe you could be right, the ITP buoy dropped in height yesterday, my presumption is its floating in sea water in a hole in the ice.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3075 on: August 11, 2014, 01:42:08 PM »
No it's not.

The current 9th and 10th lowest years on Jaxa record are 2004 and 2006 both around 5.7 million. 

2014 is currently at 6,259,129 km2.  With 30 days to go in the melt season roughly.  That would require roughly 18K per day or less in losses.


CT is at 4.55 or so according to the thread on here.  To get out of the top 10.  It would have to drop only -400K or less the rest of the way.  Or about -13K per day.


Piomas is already 10th lowest on record as of July 31st.  There is no chance for it to be anywhere below 8th lowest and it's likely to be 5th lowest

Please keep in mind that I said "increasingly likely". That's a mathematical term indicating that the odds are growing; it doesn't mean it's going to definitely happen.

Now, here's how much further 2014 CT SIA would need to drop to equal the minima recorded for each of the top ten lowest seasons on record:

2012: 2.28 million km2
2011: 1.61
2007: 1.60
2008: 1.51
2010: 1.44
2009: 1.09
2013: 0.96
2006: 0.50
2002: 0.48
2005: 0.42

Clearly, eighth-lowest is the lowest 2014 might possibly see, as the top seven are almost certainly out of reach. Now, a further loss of just 0.42 doesn't seem likely, given that daily losses through the minimum would have to be held to an average of between 15k (four weeks) and 10k (six weeks). However, keep in mind that, even with today's century drop, CT SIA has fallen an average of just 22k per day over the past week, and that's with as much insolation as the Arctic is going to see until the end of the melt. QED, a finish out of the top ten lowest is entirely possible.

And so on...

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3076 on: August 11, 2014, 01:43:27 PM »
Cross post from Homebrew.

Loss of MYI and volume

Precisely so. This from GOFS 3.1.

(Click to animate)
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3077 on: August 11, 2014, 01:48:26 PM »
Cross post from Homebrew.

Loss of MYI and volume

Precisely so. This from GOFS 3.1.

(Click to animate)

Where would ITP 70 be situated in this map?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3078 on: August 11, 2014, 01:53:20 PM »
Where would ITP 70 be situated in this map?

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=125517

Quote
Last position on 2014/8/11 0 UTC : 76.9894° N, 156.0759° W

For a better visual fix see also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2014-imbs/#2013F
« Last Edit: August 11, 2014, 02:33:30 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3079 on: August 11, 2014, 02:01:15 PM »
The Economist has an interesting story on existing buoys and some new sensors being deployed.

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21611046-determined-effort-understand-arctic-going-sea-and

Their comment section usually has very lively discussion as well.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3080 on: August 11, 2014, 03:10:34 PM »

I ,for one, will be following the fate of the ice over our side of the basin for the rest of the year!

And I will be joining you. The Arctic is in a very unusual condition heading into this winter. Where ice use to be transported, via the Beaufort Gyre, the low winds have allowed the ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort to get beaten up by the highs over the last month. Meanwhile transport through the Fram is nearly nonexistent.

If a strong high were to set up over Greenland, the transport of ice through the Fram this winter could be exciting to watch.

(Edit after watching the animation of ice with thicknesses)

It is amazing to see how thin the ice is over the pole and on the Atlantic side. If a strong dipole anomaly were to set up what would happen to this ice? Would it drive the anomalously warm waters in the Laptev to the pole? Would the thin ice at the Laptev move more quickly through the strait than if it were thick flows of MYI?
« Last Edit: August 11, 2014, 03:21:01 PM by Shared Humanity »

iceman

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3081 on: August 11, 2014, 03:11:00 PM »
As a parlor game while things slow down, how about predicting the northernmost extent of the Laptev Bite?  Looks like winds will be blowing off the warm waters of the southern Laptev for another week or so.  OTOH there has already been considerable compaction to the north in the CAB.  My guess is only another degree of latitude (to 85* as measured by AMSR2), followed by re-freeze at the higher latitudes from August 16th.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2014, 04:06:07 PM by iceman »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3082 on: August 11, 2014, 03:22:20 PM »
As a parlor game while things slow down, how about predicting the northernmost extent of the Laptev Bite?  Looks like winds will be blowing off the warm waters of the southern Laptev for another week or so.  OTOH there has already been considerable compaction to the north in the CAB.  My guess is only another degree of latitude (to 84* as measured by AMSR2), followed by re-freeze at the higher latitudes from August 16th.

Edited comment above as you typed this. It will certainly be interesting to watch.

Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3083 on: August 11, 2014, 06:22:32 PM »
As a parlor game while things slow down, how about predicting the northernmost extent of the Laptev Bite?  Looks like winds will be blowing off the warm waters of the southern Laptev for another week or so.  OTOH there has already been considerable compaction to the north in the CAB.  My guess is only another degree of latitude (to 85* as measured by AMSR2), followed by re-freeze at the higher latitudes from August 16th.

85° is probably not very far of and I think the chances of reaching the pole are close to 0, but refreezing of open water at 16. Aug sounds a little bit early to me, even at 85°, so my guess will be 86,23°N.

plinius

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3084 on: August 11, 2014, 07:59:54 PM »
Is it just my imagination, or can we now see underneath the floe upon which what I assume is ITP 70 is sitting?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2014-images/#OBuoy10

I remember having thought the same a month ago, but would not be surprised if this is a fluke. The main feature looks rather like a protruding ice pad that sticks out of the water surface at one point.

Also, we would not see a lower rim if the lower part of the board is at an angle of less than about 50 degrees due to the refraction. I'd find the freeboard an easier assessment, though of course it looks minimal now.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3085 on: August 11, 2014, 10:35:09 PM »
The Laptev bite is currently passing the ice edge as at 16 Sep 2007.  As far as I can find this date is the previous closest that the ice has been to the pole from this angle, although 2012 had the ice edge closer, just at a slightly different angle.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3086 on: August 12, 2014, 12:31:25 AM »
The CAA has been rapidly disintegrating for the last few days.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3087 on: August 12, 2014, 04:06:24 AM »
The wind pattern gets much worse after day 3-4.

The Laptev at large is going to have a huge area of open water this year

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pearscot

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3088 on: August 12, 2014, 05:11:24 AM »
The wind pattern gets much worse after day 3-4.

The Laptev at large is going to have a huge area of open water this year



I was just going to make a post about this. How far do you think it will expand this year? Looking at the recent images I wonder if it will actually get pretty close to the pole. Either way, it's surprising to see just how lopsided the ice has become. If the thin sections do indeed melt out this year there really doesn't look to be too much multi-year ice.  Either way, it's interesting that this year is still so far behind other recent years.
pls!

wili

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3089 on: August 12, 2014, 05:24:34 AM »
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

I'm surprised at the increase in concentration south of 80N and between 165E and the dateline.

I would have thought the insolation hitting that area would have melted much of it by now. I haven't followed what the winds have been doing up there, though. Presumably they are pushing things around a bit?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3090 on: August 12, 2014, 05:36:22 AM »
Quote
I was just going to make a post about this. How far do you think it will expand this year? Looking at the recent images I wonder if it will actually get pretty close to the pole. Either way, it's surprising to see just how lopsided the ice has become. If the thin sections do indeed melt out this year there really doesn't look to be too much multi-year ice.  Either way, it's interesting that this year is still so far behind other recent years.

The ice distribution is the culprit.  The Pacific side has high extent to relatively low latitudes.  That's why I think extent can still do a 2008 drop with the current pattern  softening the ice up out there and making room with quite a bit of ice pushing into the Barents and soon the Fram. That lower concentration ice covers a lot of real estate.  A lot of it will vanish thru the rest of August.  Probably methodically so I would expect drops to be consistent.  As winds turn more favorable after day 3-4 the ESS and Chukchi will see drops pick up substantially.  There is still plenty of bottom and side melt to go. 

There will even be decent top melt in the SW CAB with warmer air blowing off Canada over warming SSTS. 

But the slow decline so far shows how well the ice was preserved in much of July. 

Based on the current forecast this is my best guess at the minimum.


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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3091 on: August 12, 2014, 05:38:59 AM »
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

I'm surprised at the increase in concentration south of 80N and between 165E and the dateline.

I would have thought the insolation hitting that area would have melted much of it by now. I haven't followed what the winds have been doing up there, though. Presumably they are pushing things around a bit?

Compaction.  You can see the ice being blown towards the ESS from the Chuchki but the other side of the ESS blown mostly poleward.  In between where the winds are light under the ridge the ice isn't moving much and is being compressed.

On visible images we can also see quite a bit of smoke flowing around the arctic.  A very thick stream is cruising thru the laptev.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2014, 06:00:59 AM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3092 on: August 12, 2014, 06:10:26 AM »
You can see the smoke on the CAB side but a much thicker plume over the ESS/Laptev border.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3093 on: August 12, 2014, 09:22:13 AM »
... I'll believe it when I read about it in a journal.
You definitely do not understand the scale and nature of the current predicament (or may be you just make it seem like that's the case on purpose, possibly with a noble intent), in my humble opinion.

Do you honestly believe some journal(s) will be allowed to write about ongoing large-scale geo-engineering effort in the Arctic (if or when such an effort begins)? Really? When Manhattan project revved up, how many papers on fission were published on US scientific journals, do you know that? I'll tell you: none. This _silence_ about fission was so loud that USSR not just realized "something's wrong" about it, - more, because of this silence, USSR started its own program in the field (Holloway 1994, pp. 76–79). You see, even papers (about fission and some related fields) which were made by scientists COMPLETELY not involved in, and unaware about, Manhattan project - were prevented from being published. Much like that, present-day in-the-field researchers in the Arctic are most likely "unable" to publish everything they'd like to publish themselves.

If there is geo-engineering in the Arctic - the political and economical consequences will definitely be comparable, and in the long-term, - most likely much more massive, than consequences of Manhattan project. What makes you think that powers that be will allow YOU to read all the proper details about it in a scientific journal (i.e. truth, and complete truth, - not some cover-up fake piece of BS, which nowadays they make to avoid this "silence is telling!" effect which resulted in the start of USSR nuclear program in 1942)?

We know how tight security was around Manhattan and some other top secret projects. Full scale, nature and importance of those are known only to few dozens people (at most) in the world (including those few who lead countries strong enough to spy-and-analyze into the truth), up and until such a project keeps its top secret status (i.e., until reasons to have it top secret - remain actual).

And would you kindly avoid calling me "paranoid" or otherwise hinting or pointing (erratically) to insignificance of state security and corresponding services. At least, without making sure you know the basics like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_security_classification 1st, thank you very much...

P.S. In the case of Manhattan project, thousands and thousands of people were working for years to produce nesessary matherials and equipment, but they had no idea what they actually create and what's the meaning of the project. Most didn't even know any "project" exists. They had big problems with workers' motivation because of that; for example, some 100+ sports teams were created (for workers to have some meaningful - for them, - way to pass some time, i.e. to play in such teams and/or get otherwise involved in those sport activities), to boost morale of Manhatten project workers. No doubt, modern ways to "keep in the dark" and to motivate personnel - are much more advanced.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2014, 09:50:43 AM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

cesium62

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3094 on: August 12, 2014, 10:39:36 AM »
Do you honestly believe some journal(s) will be allowed to write about ongoing large-scale geo-engineering effort in the Arctic (if or when such an effort begins)?

Hmmm...  The anagram of your name is Tinfoil.  Conincidence?

And speaking of hats:  http://mmacbride.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-secret-message-of-go-dog-go.html

(Oh crap. Did I just go waay off topic?)

Laurent

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3095 on: August 12, 2014, 10:48:13 AM »
F.Tniolli,
May be there is geoengineering, that would make sense for big oil companies and governments to invest in it, but if done there should be some hints, something of a trace. Do we detect something ? what I am seeing is more what seems a powerful negative feedback because of the Atlantic blocking the Fram strait...until it becomes a positive feedback once established.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3096 on: August 12, 2014, 11:02:25 AM »
A repost from the Beaufort MIZ thread. The positions of the MIZ Program buoy clusters in amongst the fragmenting sea ice:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

plinius

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3097 on: August 12, 2014, 11:10:31 AM »

Do you honestly believe some journal(s) will be allowed to write about ongoing large-scale geo-engineering effort in the Arctic (if or when such an effort begins)? Really? When Manhattan project revved up, how many papers on fission were published on US scientific journals, do you know that? I'll tell you: none. This _silence_ about fission was so loud that USSR not just realized "something's wrong" about it, - more, because of this silence, USSR started its own program in the field (Holloway 1994, pp. 76–79). You see, even papers (about fission and some related fields) which were made by scientists COMPLETELY not involved in, and unaware about, Manhattan project - were prevented from being published. Much like that, present-day in-the-field researchers in the Arctic are most likely "unable" to publish everything they'd like to publish themselves.

If there is geo-engineering in the Arctic - the political and economical consequences will definitely be comparable, and in the long-term, - most likely much more massive, than consequences of Manhattan project. What makes you think that powers that be will allow YOU to read all the proper details about it in a scientific journal (i.e. truth, and complete truth, - not some cover-up fake piece of BS, which nowadays they make to avoid this "silence is telling!" effect which resulted in the start of USSR nuclear program in 1942)?

Dear Tinfoili,

I would strongly recommend you shift your activity to reliable and upright sites with true sources of information like the "cloudbuster forum" or the best places on chemtrail science. You will hence avoid the frustrating contact with us "non-believers".
Fission was known at least since Bohr's 1939 paper and everybody knew that and how one could build a nuclear weapon. Just the technological challenge of enrichment was the matter.

Cheers,
plinius

Little hint: You can hide a weapon. How do you want to hide a geoengineering project? Drug the drinking water of cities, so that people don't care?

nukefix

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3098 on: August 12, 2014, 11:58:28 AM »
What form of geoengineering are you implying? Seeded forest fires?

Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3099 on: August 12, 2014, 12:04:43 PM »

Do you honestly believe some journal(s) will be allowed to write about ongoing large-scale geo-engineering effort in the Arctic (if or when such an effort begins)? Really? When Manhattan project revved up, how many papers on fission were published on US scientific journals, do you know that? I'll tell you: none. This _silence_ about fission was so loud that USSR not just realized "something's wrong" about it, - more, because of this silence, USSR started its own program in the field (Holloway 1994, pp. 76–79). You see, even papers (about fission and some related fields) which were made by scientists COMPLETELY not involved in, and unaware about, Manhattan project - were prevented from being published. Much like that, present-day in-the-field researchers in the Arctic are most likely "unable" to publish everything they'd like to publish themselves.

If there is geo-engineering in the Arctic - the political and economical consequences will definitely be comparable, and in the long-term, - most likely much more massive, than consequences of Manhattan project. What makes you think that powers that be will allow YOU to read all the proper details about it in a scientific journal (i.e. truth, and complete truth, - not some cover-up fake piece of BS, which nowadays they make to avoid this "silence is telling!" effect which resulted in the start of USSR nuclear program in 1942)?

Dear Tinfoili,

I would strongly recommend you shift your activity to reliable and upright sites with true sources of information like the "cloudbuster forum" or the best places on chemtrail science. You will hence avoid the frustrating contact with us "non-believers".
Fission was known at least since Bohr's 1939 paper and everybody knew that and how one could build a nuclear weapon. Just the technological challenge of enrichment was the matter.

Cheers,
plinius

Little hint: You can hide a weapon. How do you want to hide a geoengineering project? Drug the drinking water of cities, so that people don't care?

Indeed.