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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3100 on: August 12, 2014, 12:37:24 PM »
Concentration delta maps for 11. August (2007, 2012, 2013) have some quite interesting details. Do for example note the patches of red indicating the existence of ice very far south in Chukchi in 2012, these are not artifacts, but ice that was detached from the main pack during during the start of August 2012. Also notice that Beaufort, a region which has been slightly ahead of 2013 all season, now seems just as packed with ice as last year.

SteveMDFP

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3101 on: August 12, 2014, 12:55:06 PM »
... I'll believe it when I read about it in a journal.
You definitely do not understand the scale and nature of the current predicament (or may be you just make it seem like that's the case on purpose, possibly with a noble intent), in my humble opinion.
...
1.  This is off-topic for the thread.  If you reply to this, or the thrashing others have given you, please start a separate thread.  I'd suggest "Is the Arctic being geo-engineered?"
2.  Calling out a stupid assertion is fair play.  Impugning a contributor's motives is trolling, abusive, and deserving of being banned.  ChrisReynolds has produced some of the finest contribution to this community.  He, more than most, doesn't deserve personal abuse.
3.  The arctic IS being geo-engineered, as is the rest of the globe--from CO2 emissions.  The whole chemtrails theory, however, is just garbage.
4.  Tor our purposes here, it doesn't matter that a geo-engineering operation could, hypothetically, be top-secret.  The incredibly sophisticated, detailed information this community has access to and analyzes here would reveal evidence of any conceivable operation that could geo-engineer the arctic, and it's just not there.
5.  In a similar diversion of nonsense, I believe you asserted that tritium emissions from Fukoshima would dramatically alter ice dynamics in the arctic.  That's a profoundly STUPID assertion, seemingly swallowed whole from the paranoia-ridden rense.com site.  You are a serial nonsense peddler here.  Please cease and desist.

Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3102 on: August 12, 2014, 02:18:55 PM »
Concentration delta maps for 11. August (2007, 2012, 2013) have some quite interesting details. Do for example note the patches of red indicating the existence of ice very far south in Chukchi in 2012, these are not artifacts, but ice that was detached from the main pack during during the start of August 2012. Also notice that Beaufort, a region which has been slightly ahead of 2013 all season, now seems just as packed with ice as last year.

Where exactly do you get these images from or are they generated locally by you?

Would you be able to make an equivalent image contrasting 2010 for that date vs 2014?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3103 on: August 12, 2014, 02:32:51 PM »
Where exactly do you get these images from or are they generated locally by you?

Would you be able to make an equivalent image contrasting 2010 for that date vs 2014?

You could have a go yourself if you're keen! Download Gimp then see the instructions over in the Developers Corner:

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iceman

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3104 on: August 12, 2014, 03:26:41 PM »
Hmmm...  The anagram of your name is Tinfoil.  Conincidence?

And speaking of hats:  http://mmacbride.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-secret-message-of-go-dog-go.html

(Oh crap. Did I just go waay off topic?)
You are wicked!  Thanks for enlivening the forum, on- and off-

Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3105 on: August 12, 2014, 03:27:43 PM »
Here you go Siffy, one for 2010 as well. You certainly won't find these maps anywhere else on the web though, because they are indeed home brew, but I can always make a map or two on request. I will either way add a forth map from various post-2007-years every week from now on.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3106 on: August 12, 2014, 03:55:11 PM »
Do you honestly believe some journal(s) will be allowed to write about ongoing large-scale geo-engineering effort in the Arctic (if or when such an effort begins)?

Hmmm...  The anagram of your name is Tinfoil.  Conincidence?

And speaking of hats:  http://mmacbride.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-secret-message-of-go-dog-go.html

(Oh crap. Did I just go waay off topic?)
Not offtopic at all. The idea is relevant to this year's melt season (no matter what reality is - the idea itself is relevant). IMHO, of course...

The anagram is indeed a coincidence; i didn't know it exists until you mentioned it. Believe or not, your choice. I find it ironic, though, that such a coincidence happened, - a little. However, probability theory assumes that total number of combinations would be something on the order of 7x6x5x4x3x2=5040 (some of those will be the same as there are to same letters "i"), i.e., quite possibly, there are other somewhat "fitting" words among possible anagrams. With some desire and some tools, probably most short names around can be "anagramed" to terms related to any (widely) picked subject. Wonderful, yep.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3107 on: August 12, 2014, 04:17:39 PM »
What form of geoengineering are you implying? Seeded forest fires?
None. I don't imply any particular form. My qualification in such technologies is miles below qualification of people, who designed http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=5003186.PN.&OS=PN/5003186&RS=PN/5003186 , and especially than qualification of people who create technologies which are not described in public patents (is there a patent to a design of atomic bomb? I think not).

Though i doubt seeded forest fires is it.

May be something with the water itself, akin to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_fertilization but, obviously, using Arctic abundant underwatre lifeforms and obviously for a different specific goal;

may be some specific aerosol, transparent at least in optical spectrum, short-lived and degradable to most simple components like CO2, H20, N2, etc - highly efficient despite/due_to its short half-life as an aerosol compound, and thus requiring relatively little application for a strong effect. Night transarctic flights?

may be it's neither, but something else. May be rather small in their scale applications of weather-control technologies to "steer" and "guide" large athmospheric events into "less melt overall" pattern. I mean, technology to clear skies in a certain and rather large location - such as for large holydays in a big country's capital city, - is existing for many years already, and is used on a regular basis.


If you know, don't tell. Not even here, in quite specialized forum. This is a dangerous knowledge, that's for sure.
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3108 on: August 12, 2014, 04:20:44 PM »
I guess we'll find out next year

Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3109 on: August 12, 2014, 04:31:47 PM »
may be it's neither, but something else. May be rather small in their scale applications of weather-control technologies to "steer" and "guide" large athmospheric events into "less melt overall" pattern. I mean, technology to clear skies in a certain and rather large location - such as for large holydays in a big country's capital city, - is existing for many years already, and is used on a regular basis.

What... No seriously that's complete nonsense. If you have proof of this cite the evidence.

On more pleasant ground

Here you go Siffy, one for 2010 as well. You certainly won't find these maps anywhere else on the web though, because they are indeed home brew, but I can always make a map or two on request. I will either way add a forth map from various post-2007-years every week from now on.

Thanks Rubik much appreciated. :)

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3110 on: August 12, 2014, 05:20:07 PM »
My guess of the possible areas which should be able to melt out until minima is reached. Area 5 is however an exception which I've marked to visualizing for further discussions. We are right now seeing a dipole set up which seems to last for about a couple of days (GFS & ECMWF holds this dipole for about 7 days). The weather pattern should be able to allow for a good portion of ice transport through Fram Strait and Olga Strait.

During the last few years the ice in the Atlantic section have been very low but this year have managed to change things. This is interesting as the ice there should be quite thin. How much of it will be able to melt away before temps dip below freeze point? In addition it looks like this area will get some snow in the close time. Snow at this time at year should be a very bad mood for the ice as snow is a perfect isolator for ice growth to occur.

While we have a big area with thin ice snow early in autumn will be bad. Bad is also that not all of the snow have melted out at the ice. This should act as a isolator as winter soon makes it grip on the Arctic.

Further, area 5 also have some really tiny holes and I don't rule out the possibility that a polynya will develop later in the month in this area.

I find it worrying that the thinnest ice moves (including that warm water blob) closer to the Pole whereas the thicker one is being pushed to the boundaries.


zworld

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3111 on: August 12, 2014, 05:39:18 PM »

5.  In a similar diversion of nonsense, I believe you asserted that tritium emissions from Fukoshima would dramatically alter ice dynamics in the arctic.  That's a profoundly STUPID assertion, seemingly swallowed whole from the paranoia-ridden rense.com site.  You are a serial nonsense peddler here.  Please cease and desist.

I brought up tritium, and wasn't asserting anything. I was seeking data from a more knowledgeable group than I. Same with methane hydrates, which I have spent the last 15 years trying to make people aware of the dangers it represents, both from extraction and natural dissociation.

And you my friend are doing everything you are accusing others of doing, and it is you who should be banned.

No need to respond, I wont be coming back to this dog and pony show.

deep octopus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3112 on: August 12, 2014, 05:46:31 PM »
The "hook" of higher-concentration ice around Beaufort, with an embayment of open water stretching into Chukchi, is similar to the contours of how 2009 finished (attached). The final figure of 2014 is moving close to that, but with weak ice along the ESS and fringe Laptev region ready to go, we should still see higher retreat on the Siberian side than 2009. The fate of the Atlantic side isn't as obvious, but I think that increased export will keep the extent there fairly constant, as ice is melted out but continually replenished by export.


NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3113 on: August 12, 2014, 06:06:42 PM »
I was going to reply on the "whole planet" CO2 geoengineering thing but ran out of time.

It is sad that it is _not_ surprising that the only single thing the 7billion people on this planet can agree, totally, on is self destruction.  How very humane.

The short reality is that the Arctic melting season is driven by 120ppm CO2 increase, almost entirely due to human activity.  That kind of momentum is not going away.

On the other hand a very salient point I'd like to cover is the short term memories of those who watch the whole thing unfold.  After 2007 it was "possible recovery".  Even when, in 2011, it was nearly as bad as 2007, it wasn't.  In fact 2008/9 were very much pause years.

Followed by?  2012.  Which just goes to prove that the whole thing is cyclical and that the ice can no longer stand the strain.  Each cycle produces worse results.  2002 to 2007, 2007 to 2012, just what we will see in 2017 is a mystery but I have very little doubt that we will not like it.

Even methane, in truly catastrophic quantities is not going to make much of a dent in the whole impact of CO2.  Nothing is going to mitigate it either.

So we watch.  It continues to melt.  Things get worse.  They wheel turns, the cycle completes another turn and things get worse.  We can expect nothing else when we keep pushing CO2 up there.

I continue to believe we will end somewhere between 2008 and 2009, by area, by the end of the season.  I know that's lower than 2013, and I know that's not looking likely right now as it's slightly above 2009.  However, we shall see.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3114 on: August 12, 2014, 09:44:01 PM »
The 12z Euro Op shows conditions conducive for melt for melting during the next 7 days. Beyond that the forecast calls for cooling of the Arctic and probably a slow ice melt. It should still be possible to get a ice loss of about 1 million km2 before August 31.

My gut feeling is that we should see a very, maybe extremely, late day for the minima to occur..

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3115 on: August 12, 2014, 10:06:13 PM »
What form of geoengineering are you implying? Seeded forest fires?
None. I don't imply any particular form. My qualification in such technologies is miles below qualification of people, who designed http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=5003186.PN.&OS=PN/5003186&RS=PN/5003186 , and especially than qualification of people who create technologies which are not described in public patents (is there a patent to a design of atomic bomb? I think not).

Though i doubt seeded forest fires is it.

May be something with the water itself, akin to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_fertilization but, obviously, using Arctic abundant underwatre lifeforms and obviously for a different specific goal;

may be some specific aerosol, transparent at least in optical spectrum, short-lived and degradable to most simple components like CO2, H20, N2, etc - highly efficient despite/due_to its short half-life as an aerosol compound, and thus requiring relatively little application for a strong effect. Night transarctic flights?

may be it's neither, but something else. May be rather small in their scale applications of weather-control technologies to "steer" and "guide" large athmospheric events into "less melt overall" pattern. I mean, technology to clear skies in a certain and rather large location - such as for large holydays in a big country's capital city, - is existing for many years already, and is used on a regular basis.


If you know, don't tell. Not even here, in quite specialized forum. This is a dangerous knowledge, that's for sure.

I've found it's neither prudent nor logical to interpret an absence of evidence of environmental skullduggery as a sign of just how good and underhanded the tricksters are. In fact, it's downright foolish in most cases--as it is here. Yes, it *could* be the reason we don't see what They are doing to the Arctic is because They are really good at hiding it. Or it could just be the reason we don't see what They are doing in the Arctic is because a) They aren't doing anything at all because b) They don't exist. As an adherent to Occam's razor, I'm going to have to go with Option #2.

So should you.

ChasingIce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3116 on: August 13, 2014, 02:50:11 AM »
Here you go Siffy, one for 2010 as well. You certainly won't find these maps anywhere else on the web though, because they are indeed home brew, but I can always make a map or two on request. I will either way add a forth map from various post-2007-years every week from now on.

love these maps... they're the bees knees.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3117 on: August 13, 2014, 02:55:57 AM »
The "hook" of higher-concentration ice around Beaufort, with an embayment of open water stretching into Chukchi, is similar to the contours of how 2009 finished (attached). The final figure of 2014 is moving close to that, but with weak ice along the ESS and fringe Laptev region ready to go, we should still see higher retreat on the Siberian side than 2009. The fate of the Atlantic side isn't as obvious, but I think that increased export will keep the extent there fairly constant, as ice is melted out but continually replenished by export.

Yeah. The Laptev region is going to be way lower that will probably make up most of the difference.  Which is why I think jaxa still drops to 4.6-47 million.
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Icebird

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3118 on: August 13, 2014, 03:26:31 AM »
I agree with Lord M Vader. A late big melt has seemed to be started, with maybe more than 1 million km2 ice loss possible before august ends.

Bruce

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3119 on: August 13, 2014, 03:39:25 AM »
Here's the plot I was talking about making with the JAXA data. It's got the averages of the three previous decades, and then the individual years from this decade.* I think it helps make a point about the trend -- no year in this decade has a minimum that's touched the previous decade's average minimum, let alone exceeded it. We are in a distinct downward trend, regardless of the fact that this year and last (will) have minima greater than 2012 or 2007 or any other year.

*I'm assuming the "decades" run 0 to 9, rather than the more traditional 1 to 10. But the result doesn't really change if you drop 2010 from the plot.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3120 on: August 13, 2014, 11:49:05 AM »
may be it's neither, but something else. May be rather small in their scale applications of weather-control technologies to "steer" and "guide" large athmospheric events into "less melt overall" pattern. I mean, technology to clear skies in a certain and rather large location - such as for large holydays in a big country's capital city, - is existing for many years already, and is used on a regular basis.

What... No seriously that's complete nonsense. If you have proof of this cite the evidence.
...
No, very seriously, it is not. I didn't say "there is"; i said "may be". As such, i can only assume that your statement "complete nonsense" is about existance of technologies which allow - like i said, - to "steer" and "guide" large athmospheric events.

If so, then sure, here you go, i have some links for you. For a warm-up, Soviet union (and later Russia) been doing this not only for military parades (to ensure clear skies and good conditions), - it's been doing it after nuclear accidents too (more than once). Including after Chernobil disaster. Yours truly was a kid back then, and lived in Minsk. I've seen few-inches-tall foam forming on top of pads of rain water on the ground when it was raining; i've seen it with my own eyes when i went out for a walk. It was from chemicals sprayed upwind to deactivate and deplete clouds before they reach densely populated areas, as much as possible. The foam was yellow. So you have a 1st-hand testimony here. Some more details (including uses in other regions of the world) are at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding#Europe .

More recent and quite disturbing text - is https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/109/hr2995/text . Note, similar bill was worked on once again in 2007, but it also did not pass. One very disturbing (to me) detail is that basically such a national weather control program would be controlled by the department of commerce. I can imagine their priorities... Another disturbing thought - is that those bills did not pass. Indeed, i'd prefer the US senate to actually enact such a bill in some form; at least we'd know. I can see multiple reasons why they couldn't do it, and some are very true and right reasons, though. Still, the need of US administration to codify certain aspects of weather control activities means only one thing: such activities are at least desirable, at most - already being widely implemented, but are controlled by non-public regulations.

Or how about this: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7726#.U-suhPmSwQk . "Stopping hurricanes" is exactly a form of "steering and guiding large athmospheric event", in my book. Yes,  yes, it's not even clear if it'd work - but what do you want, it's public domain, eh. Even mere existance of this proposal makes one wonder, whether something not so public and not so unproven - exist. At least, it makes me. YMMV.

Something more concrete is http://www.energy.ca.gov/2007publications/CEC-500-2007-008/CEC-500-2007-008.PDF . I see all signs that they are about it in all seriousness. If they try to go for it in California - why couldn't they try to go for something else in the Arctic? Big plus - much easier to hide, since number of people living in Arctic is quite a bit less than number of people living in the California, eh.

That's just what i see with a darn single quick and shallow look in the public domain. Honestly, spend an hour and you'll find dozens of such things. Weather is being controlled on a regional level for various applications for decades already, when nesessary. You may not like it, i may not like it, but psst, without those actions, most likely lots of people would suffer more than otherwise possible. I am not a person who "blames the government" for all sins existing and imagined. The yellow foam i remember from my childhood quite possibly saved my life - i heard, quite a few kids in Minsk died from tyroid (if i remember english term right) cancer in later 1980s. Radioactive iodine...
« Last Edit: August 13, 2014, 12:03:06 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3121 on: August 13, 2014, 12:17:45 PM »
may be it's neither, but something else. May be rather small in their scale applications of weather-control technologies to "steer" and "guide" large athmospheric events into "less melt overall" pattern. I mean, technology to clear skies in a certain and rather large location - such as for large holydays in a big country's capital city, - is existing for many years already, and is used on a regular basis.

What... No seriously that's complete nonsense. If you have proof of this cite the evidence.
...
No, very seriously, it is not. I didn't say "there is"; i said "may be". As such, i can only assume that your statement "complete nonsense" is about existance of technologies which allow - like i said, - to "steer" and "guide" large athmospheric events.

That's not what you said at all and you've shifted the goal posts from your original assertion which was unfounded nonsense.



may be it's neither, but something else. May be rather small in their scale applications of weather-control technologies to "steer" and "guide" large athmospheric events into "less melt overall" pattern. I mean, technology to clear skies in a certain and rather large location - such as for large holydays in a big country's capital city, - is existing for many years already, and is used on a regular basis.


F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3122 on: August 13, 2014, 12:27:13 PM »
...
I've found it's neither prudent nor logical to interpret an absence of evidence of environmental skullduggery as a sign of just how good and underhanded the tricksters are. In fact, it's downright foolish in most cases--as it is here. Yes, it *could* be the reason we don't see what They are doing to the Arctic is because They are really good at hiding it. Or it could just be the reason we don't see what They are doing in the Arctic is because a) They aren't doing anything at all because b) They don't exist. As an adherent to Occam's razor, I'm going to have to go with Option #2.

So should you.
I see you are not affraid to be cathegorical. Well then, if you invoke good old Occam's razor, - which i am adherent to as well, whenever and however appropriate applicable, - i am going to go with Option #3, which is significanly simpler than both Option #1, and Option #2. Namely, Option #3: it could just be we don't see what is going on in the Arctic because we are blind.

As such, your own logic beats you. However, it's incorrect to apply Occam's razor to large and complex systems. The subject of the discussion - if speculated activity in the Arctic is indeed performed at the present time on a sufficiently largescale, - is no less than a real-time interaction between rather astronomically large number of self-organizing ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-organization ) chemical, biological, political and economical systems. That's why i do not think Occam's razor is of any meaningful value in this particular matter.

As always, it may be i am mistaken, i never said i "know" for sure - because i don't, - and i never said all my thoughts are without error. Only human. But i hope some of my considerations will be useful to some people here, so i share. Feel free to do with it as you see fit, including ignoring if you want. No pressure!

P.S. Good sir Occam would probably scream in utter despair, should he realize full complexity of involved processes. Good for him he's dead, eh. :)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3123 on: August 13, 2014, 12:31:58 PM »
Not exactly specific to the summer of 2014, but this seems like the best place to show this new video - Arctic Emergency: Scientists Speak On Melting Ice and Global Impacts:



Speakers include Francis, Vavrus, Shakhova and Masters
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Siffy

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3124 on: August 13, 2014, 12:33:40 PM »
...
I've found it's neither prudent nor logical to interpret an absence of evidence of environmental skullduggery as a sign of just how good and underhanded the tricksters are. In fact, it's downright foolish in most cases--as it is here. Yes, it *could* be the reason we don't see what They are doing to the Arctic is because They are really good at hiding it. Or it could just be the reason we don't see what They are doing in the Arctic is because a) They aren't doing anything at all because b) They don't exist. As an adherent to Occam's razor, I'm going to have to go with Option #2.

So should you.
I see you are not affraid to be cathegorical. Well then, if you invoke good old Occam's razor, - which i am adherent to as well, whenever and however appropriate applicable, - i am going to go with Option #3, which is significanly simpler than both Option #1, and Option #2. Namely, Option #3: it could just be we don't see what is going on in the Arctic because we are blind.

As such, your own logic beats you. However, it's incorrect to apply Occam's razor to large and complex systems. The subject of the discussion - if speculated activity in the Arctic is indeed performed at the present time on a sufficiently largescale, - is no less than a real-time interaction between rather astronomically large number of self-organizing ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-organization ) chemical, biological, political and economical systems. That's why i do not think Occam's razor is of any meaningful value in this particular matter.

As always, it may be i am mistaken, i never said i "know" for sure - because i don't, - and i never said all my thoughts are without error. Only human. But i hope some of my considerations will be useful to some people here, so i share. Feel free to do with it as you see fit, including ignoring if you want. No pressure!

P.S. Good sir Occam would probably scream in utter despair, should he realize full complexity of involved processes. Good for him he's dead, eh. :)

You are invoking a lack of evidence as evidence for why your lack of evidence is in fact evidence that the arctic is being geoengineered.

You do realize how utterly preposterous that is?


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3125 on: August 13, 2014, 12:37:46 PM »
F.Tnioli et al.

Please take the "weather engineering" debate somewhere more appropriate. If Crandles will forgive me, how about here?

"Could geoengineering be started and hidden while illegal"?

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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3126 on: August 13, 2014, 01:30:29 PM »
F.Tniolli,
May be there is geoengineering, that would make sense for big oil companies and governments to invest in it, but if done there should be some hints, something of a trace. Do we detect something ? what I am seeing is more what seems a powerful negative feedback because of the Atlantic blocking the Fram strait...until it becomes a positive feedback once established.
I am not a specialist to judge, and i've seen people here who claim to be and say that it is indeed a big-time change in one massive climate pattern - been one way since 1990s, but turned to the opposite state during last two years. What puzzles me is why everyone who talks about the fact suggests that it happened "itself". I mean, i don't deny the possibility, how could i, lacking appropriate qualification in the field. What i see is definite "companion" possibility that said change in that pattern - is not a cause, but an effect. If there are public and rather serious proposals about steering hurricanes with means as simple as putting not so huge amount of certain substance in certain location(s) at certain time, - what exactly makes it so much impossible that similar yet larger-scale technologies were used to steer said large climatic pattern? Granted, it would take deep knowledge of Earth climate to find some spot(s) and time(s) rather minor influence at which will trigger much bigger (in compare to the scale of the direct action) change, yes. And decades of intense (possibly classified, considering possible global consequences involved) science. But both things are, in general, were and are possible in "1st world countries" at least. Are they not?

As for detection... We do not know what particular method(s) might be in use. Arctic is far far away from places were (and vast majority of humans) are at. Frankly, when i read about global dimming being discovered ONLY as a result of measurements taken in order to implement better agriculture methods, and ONLY after a few decades since the phenomena started to have definitely substantial effects on climate, and when i read about all the scientists who were working on global warming and related issues during very those decades global dimming remained not identified, - i have a definite difficulty seeing how even poorly hidden geo-engineering effort in Arctic could be very obvious to any large scientific community here in moderate and subtropical belts.

As for those (quite very few) scientists who work in Arctic itself physically being there, making direct measurements, - it is not any difficult for leading states to make those silent. It is even possible they themselves have their own good reasons to stay silent, noble and/or not ones.

P.S. Dimming is an excellent example for one different, but related, phenomena: ignorance of many so-called "scientists" to very massive, very important, very basic facts which are very related to their fields of expertise. Combined result of over-specialization, state and corporate policies of "information strictly on "need to know" basis" sort, over-confidence of many scietific personnel, inability of human being to directly sense global things (ok, seeing Earth from an orbit is an exception, alas at such distance, lots of global things are actually not visible by a naked eye) and other factors. Anyhows, sad truth is, even many people here will find themselves not completely familiar even with totally public and long-time-known facts like http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml , if we speak global dimming in particular. Yet those still express their opinion, which, if not counting for such most cornerstone trends, is doomed to be erratic. They participate in shaping of scientific consensus, changing it substantially. How to expect "us" to "know" about geo-engineering in Arctic - i honestly do not know. Even if it wouldn't be hidden at all (hard to imagine anybody could hide dimming, but it's still never big news, is it, eh).
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3127 on: August 13, 2014, 01:34:09 PM »
You are invoking a lack of evidence as evidence for why your lack of evidence is in fact evidence that the arctic is being geoengineered.

You do realize how utterly preposterous that is?
See the bold word in the quote? That's where you are wrong. I do not bring "evidence" of geo-engineering in the Arctic. Merely, my argument is that it is _possible_, not more, not less. And then i give some more arguments which, in general, point (in some or other way) that currently ongoing geo-engineering in Arctic is more likely than one would initially think. Still not "proven", just more likely than if to consider it without arguments i presented.

Given current observations - like, today's CT ice area is so far continuing the unusual 2013-2014 thing of "halt/massive_slow of melt during 2nd half of Arctic summer for 7+ days periods" - such a possibility seems to be worth a discussion, to me.

Please spare me your sophistics and provoking questions. It won't help to have any productive discussion. Thank you.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3128 on: August 13, 2014, 01:40:58 PM »
F.Tnioli et al.

Please take the "weather engineering" debate somewhere more appropriate. If Crandles will forgive me, how about here?

"Could geoengineering be started and hidden while illegal"?
Just noticed this message.

Very well, i'll stop. There will be no more reply on the subject, not in this topic, not in any other (but, thank you for the invitation nonetheless).

Frankly, if i can't discuss matters which are, in my opinion, are likely to be major factors shaping this melt season; if i can't do it in the topic which is about this melt season; if i am asked to take such discussion away, - then i take it as a hint that i am not welcome anywhere. Not in this topic, not in any other.

OK, no problem. I am just a guest here. Never intended to force anything to anyone's ear.

I'll enjoy reading this topic for my own reasons, but will do my best to remain silent from now on.

Cheers!
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3129 on: August 13, 2014, 04:50:23 PM »
This year was colder because of extensive snow pack on the ice in the CAB, Southern arctic basin towards the pole and the CAA.

It was clear with the visible sat images and how long the snow brightness lasted and never waned in spots.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3130 on: August 13, 2014, 05:22:11 PM »
Friv: good analyze! I concur about this! I would also like to add that the really warm air from the continents never entered the Arctic entirely as well as there haven't been any really strong winds this summer.

The question for the rest of the year should be whether we'll see an anticyclonic pattern or not. With the extensive snow pack still being around the ice it will act as an isolator as temps are digging below freeze point. If my memory is correct there was a very strong negative AO in 2009/2010. As 2009 sea ice extent was really high the snow cover on the ice should have been pretty good. But when the winter of 2010 arrived with the very negative AO which lasted for a long time it seems realistic that there can't have been much snow falling on ice which as the spring arrived put up a really good start for melting of the ice with the dipole anomaly present which more or less was repeated in 2011 and 2012.

2013 had a great deal of positive AO which in the beginning of 2014 was mainly (weak) positive. From June and onwards the AO has been weak negative. If my feeling is correct we should see a gradual return to more persistently negative AO-values the next 1-2 years. This should allow for a greater melt in both 2015 and 2016, especially if the aforemented El Niño materializes. What everyone should bother about in that time is the thin ice close to the Pole.

In the meantime I want to focus on the weather pattern for the next week which should allow for a fair amount of melting. From this date toward the minima virtually all years from 2002 and onward have managed to melt out at least 1 million km2 (JAXA values)! The exceptions are 2003 and 2006 which only succeeded to melt out 0,85 Mn km2 and 0,75 Mn km2. I would therefore put the odds for the minima to be higher than 5 Mn km2 to about 10% and a 5% chance that the SIE minimum will be below 4,5 Mn km2. The most likely is that this years minimum will be around 4,8-4,9 Mn km2!

Finally, the minimum should be extremely late occur. I put a wild card and put the minima date to 21 of September. Why? Because of the Atlantic sector which has a great deal of ice now which should be able to melt more and counteract any ice growth. I think we'll see a polynya form north of Svalbard in the end of this month...

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3131 on: August 13, 2014, 06:33:57 PM »
To the moderators:

Could we please move the geoengineering posts from this location to a new or different thread?

This is a topic for which there is far more heat than light, and which is clogging this thread with OT posts.  Relocating them would by nature refocus the discussion.
This space for Rent.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3132 on: August 13, 2014, 07:43:24 PM »
... I'll believe it when I read about it in a journal.
You definitely do not understand the scale and nature of the current predicament (or may be you just make it seem like that's the case on purpose, possibly with a noble intent), in my humble opinion.

Define 'our predicament'.

Do you honestly believe some journal(s) will be allowed to write about ongoing large-scale geo-engineering effort in the Arctic (if or when such an effort begins)?...

Manhattan was only one governement, Arctic science is international. How does one hide the signal of geoengineering in raw radiometer data from MODIS? Answer - it cannot be done without leaving a trace of it being done.

What do you think the Russian Government would do if they found out the Americans were geo-engineering over what the Russian's clearly consider to be their Arctic. Given their current problems with NATO do you think they would miss the chance to kick up a fuss?

Before answering this, if you haven't already done so, I suggest you watch Russia Today - the voice of the Kremlin, that spends most of its time muck-raking against the west.

Actually I'll start a thread on this, don't reply to these points here, reply on the "Is the Arctic being geoengineered?" thread.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3133 on: August 13, 2014, 07:59:25 PM »
I read all of the posts here (and didn't understand the intrusion of the methane discussion in a 2014 melt thread).  I appreciate everyone's input and am becoming more familiar with the complex set of Arctic sea ice melt dynamics.  My current feelings after reading the projections vs. actual numbers for extent, area and volume, with the projections ranging from cautious and reasoned to hyperbole and excitement can be summarized as:

1. There seems to be a conflict between hoping for a big melt to deny the denialists another talking point and year of gloating and blathering, and a more deep-seated hope for a recovery.  (Which science tells us is virtually impossible.)

2.  Insolation and general weather conditions have been conducive to "damaging" the ice, and indeed, much of the ice looks to be in "bad shape."

3.  The primary conditions preventing a massive melting event seem to be a lack of favorable winds and currents that could lead to mixing and melting - and transport of ice southward via the Fram   

Another factor that some people are getting excited about at other AGW/CC websites is soot and smoke from the massive area of wildfires around the globe in the high latitudes.  I have only seen a couple of references to that factor here, and it seems that winds are not favorable for bringing smoke and soot to the Arctic sea ice.  I posited in a post at the WUnderground climate blog that even if there was a lot of soot darkening and lowering the albedo of the sea ice, when the ice melts, through, the soot goes into the ocean, and next year's FYI would be high albedo and soot free.  However, compacted and layered MYI could contain soot to varying levels at various depths, and be a factor in future melting seasons.

I'll close with a question.  Is there satellite data available that regularly updates sea ice albedo?  (I assume that the complex interactions of snow and ice transparency, surface roughness and irregularities, combined with sun angle and satellite line-of-sight angle, would make albedo difficult to quantify via measurement, since the data would need to be adjusted to compensate for these factors.)

(I accidentally posted this at the 2014 area and extent thread, and just moved it here after only a few minutes.)

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3134 on: August 13, 2014, 09:22:16 PM »
To the moderators:

Could we please move the geoengineering posts from this location to a new or different thread?

This is a topic for which there is far more heat than light, and which is clogging this thread with OT posts.  Relocating them would by nature refocus the discussion.

Obviously I am no moderator, but Chris Reynolds has started a new thread for this called "Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?"

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,958.0.html

Personally, I have just been scrolling past such posts on this thread, but I might be more inclined to read them if they were in an appropriate thread.  ;)

Edit: Oops, just noticed that Chris already pointed this out. Oh well, I guess an additional road sign won't hurt...
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3135 on: August 13, 2014, 09:35:26 PM »
This is from Aqua modis about 5 days ago.  It was a pretty clear image so it will work well. 

The 7-2-1 image and the 3-6-7 image shows the difference between dry snow, wet snow, and various levels of ice wetness well.

GIS is mostly covered with dry snow.  Which can range from 75-85% reflectivity.  As the lighter blue fades to darker blues and then really dark blues albedo drops substantially.  So yeah we are pretty much ball parking it.  But after a while you get a good grasp on that.

We also have access to GIS products based on the modis data itself.  like the one below. 

That one is only showing anomalies but Jason Box has posted absolutes many times.  So we have a sense of matching the colors on the modis images to the change in surface reflectivity. 

It really doesn't need to be precise to be analytically effective.  We can just throw it into 3-4 categories.  Brighter lighter blues = high reflectivity(75%+)  Semi darkening = medium reflectivity(65-75%) average darkening = 50-65% reflectivity(bigger range potentially compensating for pooling water or melt ponds).  Strong darkening = 30-50% reflectivity.

Again that is just rough ballpark estimates.  Sometimes when snow melts in earnest there is water trapped on the top of the ice so much so it's almost like one large melt sea at times and albedo plummets until the water drains and then there is a rebound when the bare ice is left exposed but drained. 

I would just use the modis images as a general guide. 





I got a nickname for all my guns
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3136 on: August 13, 2014, 10:00:57 PM »
I've been wanting to do something like this for a long time.  I really wanted to see, in figures, just exactly what is going on with the volume loss and how it is playing out in the % of ice lost each year.

This is the Pimoas daily data.  I've taken two days, max and min. I've ordered them in volume low and I've included the starting volume, the ending volume and day of minimum, the % of overall ice volume lost and the actual volume of ice lost each melt season.

I think it makes interesting reading.  Especially 2005, 2006 in comparison to 2000 and also what has been happening since 2010.  I don't see 2013 as any kind of recovery in terms of % volume loss and I put 2014 in at day 212 just as a comparison.

To me, this says that the actual volume of ice being lost is not that significantly greater than in 2000.  Yet the continual year on year loss of ice, weakening the pack, and wreaking ever greater % of loss for similar melt, tells a story of decline and eventual total failure.

I don't see anything hopeful in what is happening today.

I work in a world where I have to explain to people, day after day, that the smaller the sample, the larger the impact of {x} number of issues.  You would be surprised how many people just don't get it.  It is clear from this chart that as the ice diminishes, the % of ice lost, for similar ice volume, is greater.  Also, to me, this shows the impact of losing so much ice.  As the % of ice lost grows greater, the greater the ability to melt more volume of ice.

If we compare 2002 with 2012, for 17.5% more physical ice lost, the overall volume loss is 23.5% greater.

This is a cycle of destruction.

Year#dayVol HighVol Low% lossVol Loss
201226123.373.6784.2819.69
201125322.684.3081.0318.38
201025824.264.5881.1119.67
201325723.335.3976.8917.94
200726623.876.4672.9317.41
200925525.076.8472.7218.24
200826225.167.0771.8918.09
200626625.198.9964.2916.19
200526326.189.1665.0217.02
201421223.129.5858.5813.54
200425425.819.8861.7215.93
200325327.3110.2462.5117.07
200226027.5410.7960.8116.75
200025227.3010.9559.8716.34
200126127.7412.1856.1015.56
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3137 on: August 13, 2014, 10:47:48 PM »
This is from Aqua modis about 5 days ago.  It was a pretty clear image so it will work well. 

We also have access to GIS products based on the modis data itself.  like the one below. 
It really doesn't need to be precise to be analytically effective.  We can just throw it into 3-4 categories.  Brighter lighter blues = high reflectivity(75%+)  Semi darkening = medium reflectivity(65-75%) average darkening = 50-65% reflectivity(bigger range potentially compensating for pooling water or melt ponds).  Strong darkening = 30-50% reflectivity.

Again that is just rough ballpark estimates.  Sometimes when snow melts in earnest there is water trapped on the top of the ice so much so it's almost like one large melt sea at times and albedo plummets until the water drains and then there is a rebound when the bare ice is left exposed but drained. 

I would just use the modis images as a general guide. 
...snip...

Thanks, Friv - extremely helpful and just what I was looking for regarding albedo = I should have been paying attention as I read posts here this summer.

What's your take on winds and currents as the "missing elements" for a major ice loss this season?

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3138 on: August 14, 2014, 12:05:28 AM »
This is from Aqua modis about 5 days ago.  It was a pretty clear image so it will work well. 

We also have access to GIS products based on the modis data itself.  like the one below. 
It really doesn't need to be precise to be analytically effective.  We can just throw it into 3-4 categories.  Brighter lighter blues = high reflectivity(75%+)  Semi darkening = medium reflectivity(65-75%) average darkening = 50-65% reflectivity(bigger range potentially compensating for pooling water or melt ponds).  Strong darkening = 30-50% reflectivity.

Again that is just rough ballpark estimates.  Sometimes when snow melts in earnest there is water trapped on the top of the ice so much so it's almost like one large melt sea at times and albedo plummets until the water drains and then there is a rebound when the bare ice is left exposed but drained. 

I would just use the modis images as a general guide. 
...snip...

Thanks, Friv - extremely helpful and just what I was looking for regarding albedo = I should have been paying attention as I read posts here this summer.

What's your take on winds and currents as the "missing elements" for a major ice loss this season?

It turned out to be a big factor because the sun was never able to overcome the higher albedo to compensate. 

I thought with those HPs we had the Sun would have been a bigger factor.

The folks who cited the lack of upper level support turned out to be right.

Especially when it came to subsidence we saw so much with the big ridges.  Even this recent ridge brought that.  It was just to late for big time damage.

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3139 on: August 14, 2014, 12:08:17 AM »
I made an image from the latest Daily AMSR2 Sea Ice Map to try to measure the size of the center part of the ice pack. By pixel-counting I tried to create a rectangle 1,000 by 2,000 kilometers in size, or 2 million square kilometers in area and center it over the central ice pack that I have the most confidence in. Outside of the rectangle most of the ice pack as I see it is compromised by gaps, thinness, surface melt, transport, etc. Ice in this rectangular area is currently well-compacted and relatively stationary but perhaps only because it is protected on all sides.

When I look at it this way I am not so reassured by the extent numbers. Two thirds of the ice is out on the edges. Even in the center it is not so thick. It would only take some weird weather (I am not saying this year, but in any year at random) to extend the melting season by the equivalent of a month, and that would be all it would take to melt nearly all of it away.

Edit: For comparison purposes, the area of Greenland is 2,166,086 km2 according to Wikipedia.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2014, 12:24:23 AM by Rick Aster »

deep octopus

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3140 on: August 14, 2014, 12:38:07 AM »
I'd hazard to guess that wind patterns are more important than insolation from here on out. Looks like we have about five more days left of a high pressure system focused over the CAB. Granted, its effect is getting exponentially weaker anyway until the sun goes down for winter. Then we wait until late April to get the same amount of insolation we're seeing now. This is where wind needs to take over to keep the momentum going as we enter the second half of August. There is substantial heat stored in the open water to drive some bottom melt, but it needs to be advected with the help of some winds. After five days, a bit of a dipole starts up, and Buy Ballot's Law will steer some water around. Things get confused after that, but one thing is certain: if there's little wind (like has been the case most of this summer), the season is effectively over. My only hold out now is if we get under 2009/2013, or if we end up duking it out with 2005. Getting under 2013 is a best case scenario. Whatever extent we're seeing now on the satellites is close to what we're going to finish with, at least where the purples stand. Much of the reds, yellow, and greens are not going to last. The rest of this process is just moving the chairs around: getting some contributions from bottom melt, compacting, export... that's about it. I agree, a late finish is quite possible. But there's no way to get around that things are gradually slowing to a crawl. Unless we get a late cyclone to burst into the scene... and that would be blast to watch. In fact, give me a cyclone in mid-September, and that would rock the boat going into the freeze season, if for a bit.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3141 on: August 14, 2014, 12:42:39 AM »
Rick-  that really shows how fragile the ice is when considering the favorable weather this summer.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3142 on: August 14, 2014, 01:45:49 AM »
Losses will likely pick up or sustain themselves in the -60 to -75K range for a while on Jaxa with this pattern.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a century or two in there.

But I'd bank on slower steady losses. 

Area losses should pick up steadily as well. 

I won't be surprised if the surface pressure over the CAB doesn't break down as much or as fast as the models currently show.  At this point it would mostly effect the wind speed and how much land warmth is pulled in off NA.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

greatdying2

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3143 on: August 14, 2014, 04:34:42 AM »
Over the last couple of weeks, both Navy thickness models show the thick MYI just north of the CAA breaking free of land and moving west. First the western section breaks off around Aug 1, then the entire thing breaks off around Aug 6.

1. Is this real?
2. Is it normal?
3. Is it bad (for long-term ice preservation), good, or neither?

This appears to be the only really thick ice left in the Arctic. If it gets transported towards the Chukchi next year (or a following one), and if say there is an El Nino and warm waters enter from the Pacific, could it be the end of this 5-metre thick ice? Or is this just a short term process and it will soon literally freeze in place?

The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

OSweetMrMath

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3144 on: August 14, 2014, 04:45:08 AM »
I made an image from the latest Daily AMSR2 Sea Ice Map to try to measure the size of the center part of the ice pack. By pixel-counting I tried to create a rectangle 1,000 by 2,000 kilometers in size, or 2 million square kilometers in area and center it over the central ice pack that I have the most confidence in.

Is the map constant area? It looks like the map has constant distance moving to or from the pole, which should mean that areas away from the pole appear larger than they are. (Assuming my geometry is correct.) This means the computed area of a rectangle on the map does not equal the actual area on the surface of the Earth. (Also, the shape on the the surface of the Earth is not a rectangle.)

The error could be small enough to not affect your conclusions, but you should check it, or verify that the map, despite the spacing of the latitude lines, is constant area.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3145 on: August 14, 2014, 07:18:25 AM »
The GFS doesn't fail me tonight with the idea of the NA ridging staying more stout then recent runs were showing.

If there is going to be a chance for 2008 extent and 2013 area a consistent dipole like the gfs shows tonight will be required.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3146 on: August 14, 2014, 10:00:30 AM »

Great shot of the Laptev today.  The ice edge in the middle of the image slightly to the left is the bite area that has reached very close to 85N now.  We can see a plume of clouds coming around the SLP that off to the SW over the Kara region.  We can also see smoke still being pulled into this region.  The ice is darkened so there is some level of surface melt still going on here which isn't surprising with the Southerly winds blowing over the open water that is above 0C as well as the relatively warm mid/low level air mass.

The ice over the right hand side and the bottom right is the bump that is being decimated.  This ice is likely being mostly melted from below as well as from likely wave action being pretty stout.  I also am showing the false color image to highlight where clouds are masking some of the damage over the Nansen Basin bump.







The latest ice drift forecast that doesn't include the 15th for whatever reason that day was not ran by the model. 




According to the updated DMI ssts the Beaufort dropped about 6-8C in one day.  Which is next to impossible. So with a quick investigation we can see that the satellites were fooled by fog that appears to contain frozen droplets at some level which is evident by the bright blueish hue in the fog deck.

Pretty cool stuff.







I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3147 on: August 14, 2014, 10:25:28 AM »
Is the map constant area?

See A-Team's in depth analysis over at:

Reverse Engineering "Goddard's" Real (un)Scientific Method

In short, yes. The Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grid to be exact.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Rick Aster

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3148 on: August 14, 2014, 02:31:57 PM »
Is the map constant area?
It is a flat rectangle on a map projection of a spherical surface, and the longer dimension is 1/20 of the circumference, so that’s 18° of curvature being ignored. Please take it as indicative rather than precise. Still, you’ll get the right idea by comparing the area inside the box to the area covered by ice outside the box.

Comradez

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3149 on: August 14, 2014, 02:42:06 PM »
If you are wondering where all of the heat has gone this melt season, I have made a HYCOM sea surface temperature gif comparing 2012 with 2014. 



Eyeballing it, I would say that 2012 has 2014 beat in:
*Barents
*Kara
*Beaufort
*Baffin
*Hudson
*CAA

However, 2014 has 2012 beat in:
*Baltic / Scandinavia coast
*North Pacific / Bering
*Laptev
(Of course, only one of these is in the arctic sea ice domain, so not much help this season.  But maybe over the winter and next summer, some of this heat will filter into the arctic).

The two are about tied in:
*Chukchi / ESS

If someone could devise an automated computer pixel-counting scheme for these images, where we could get something like an average SST (perhaps even divided up by region as well), that would be AWESOME!  I would make these gifs all the time.  Anyone know how that pixel-counting could be done?