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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3400 on: September 01, 2014, 10:29:29 AM »
Actually a comparison to 2012 shows that there is far more extra ice this year on the Pacific side than on the Atlantic side.

My comparison with 2013 was for a specific reason Michael! No data has yet been forthcoming from the Mail on Sunday, so especially for Wili:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/09/david-roses-apocalyptic-vision-of-al-gores-nobel-lecture/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3401 on: September 01, 2014, 10:31:56 AM »
Myros - Welcome! As far as I am aware that has not been previously announced.

See also: "Northwest Passage thread"
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

wili

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3402 on: September 01, 2014, 05:33:10 PM »
Thanks, Jim.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

cesium62

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3403 on: September 01, 2014, 09:17:38 PM »
Yet again missing the point.

Sigh.

I started this thread (slightly prematurely!) when a variety of metrics where at all time lows for the date. That is no longer the case, and I guess it's slightly early for a post mortem on 2014. However out of my recent battles with the forces of darkness has emerged this garishly coloured comparison between August 25th 2014 and 2013. Green = 2014 but not 2013. Red is vice versa.

It seems to be starting one in the face that there is more unmelted ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic this year, and less on the Pacific side. Why do you suppose that is?

I vote for wind speed and direction.  I wonder if someone has anomaly graphs for that somewhere...

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3404 on: September 01, 2014, 10:46:18 PM »

Rick Aster

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3405 on: September 02, 2014, 01:04:55 AM »
In the August 31 map it looks like a snowflake in the Beaufort Sea.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3406 on: September 02, 2014, 01:05:17 AM »
Thanks, Jim.

My pleasure Wili. Did I mention that there's more where that came from?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/09/santas-secret-summer-swimming-pool-revisited/

I've discovered that today is Labor Day in the good ol' U S of A :(

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3407 on: September 03, 2014, 05:17:59 AM »
Sea Ice Volume per September 2nd.
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plinius

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3408 on: September 03, 2014, 02:12:35 PM »
Sea Ice Volume per September 2nd.

quite surprising. Is there any map showing the spatial distribution?

epiphyte

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3409 on: September 03, 2014, 05:19:46 PM »
Sea Ice Volume per September 2nd.

quite surprising. Is there any map showing the spatial distribution?

If you're wondering whether the increase in "volume" is all at the periphery, well I am, too. If it is then it would add to my suspicion that the model is being fed gridded area parameters that are overestimated, at least for relatively uniform ice that has significant melt-in-place.

I've been slapped for questioning this model in the past, but the result that actual ice volume has increased over the past month seems... incredible.

Rick Aster commented a few days ago that the Aug. 31 U.Bremen picture of the Beaufort resembled a snowflake... i.e. appeared to have a fractal ice/water boundary. I think there's an element of truth to that, and that satellite-pixel-granularity area observations do not have the resolution to discern it.

crandles

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3410 on: September 03, 2014, 05:51:57 PM »
but the result that actual ice volume has increased over the past month seems... incredible.

Huh? Who says it has increased?

2008 day 181 17.442
2008 day 212 11.255
2008 day 243 7.823

2014 day 181 14.642
2014 day 212 9.575
2014 day 243 being forecast by Viddaloo to be around ~8

from 2.801 below 2008 at end of June to 1.68 below at end of July is a catch up of 1.121. A catch up of over 1.68 in August (on a fall of only 11.255-7.823=3.432) seems like a large amount to catch up. Not saying it is impossible and Viddaloo may have good reason for believing it from the calculations he has done.

My finger in the air WAG would be for a catch up of 1 so 9.575-(11.255-7.823)+1 = 7.1

7.1 or 8 either way this is lower than 9.575 at the end of July.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3411 on: September 03, 2014, 06:14:41 PM »
but the result that actual ice volume has increased over the past month seems... incredible.

Huh? Who says it has increased?


Apologies. My bad... I wasn't reading the graph right.

plinius

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3412 on: September 03, 2014, 06:41:47 PM »
> Apologies. My bad... I wasn't reading the graph right.

It obviously has increased _relative_ to the past years. The interesting question is why the model claims this. My first idea would be Fram transport, which was absent most of the time. Your point about area-dependent effects might well apply, though then I would like to know where the difference to 2013 is coming from.
Anyway, those questions should be answered by cryosat, once they publish their data/calibration.

viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3413 on: September 03, 2014, 07:07:44 PM »
The new data are in:

2014 213   9.422
2014 214   9.300
2014 215   9.173
2014 216   9.060
2014 217   8.960
2014 218   8.849
2014 219   8.734
2014 220   8.640
2014 221   8.526
2014 222   8.428
2014 223   8.359
2014 224   8.292
2014 225   8.223
2014 226   8.145
2014 227   8.091
2014 228   8.032
2014 229   7.966
2014 230   7.915
2014 231   7.853
2014 232   7.791
2014 233   7.723
2014 234   7.664
2014 235   7.586
2014 236   7.514
2014 237   7.449
2014 238   7.400
2014 239   7.364
2014 240   7.328
2014 241   7.281
2014 242   7.253
2014 243   7.220
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3414 on: September 03, 2014, 07:36:40 PM »
Another round of interanual delta maps is ready for posting although one day late (which means they are for September 1st). In addition to 2007, 2012 and 2013, this week also includes 2011, as requested by Nightvid Cole, and I think his claim that the 2011-pack resembles 2014 the most in shape is very justifiable although differences are significant.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2014, 09:47:08 PM by Rubikscube »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3415 on: September 03, 2014, 09:39:48 PM »
As we are on track to the minimum there are few interesting things for the rest of this melt season. However, there are some things that I think is of vital importance. I have marked it as area no 3 on the following pic. My overall picture is that the SIE numbers are on steroids right now and that if we only get a more "normal" melting season the SIE numbers will be much lower.

What we should ask ourselves is: if we are getting these SIE numbers now with "bad" melt conditions; how will it be the very year when a really good melt pattern take place?

Back to the three areas I've marked:

Area 1 & 2 are interesting as they are consisting of weak ice that just are holding up the SIE numbers, especially area no 2.

Area 3 is as I stated earlier the absolutely most intersting! This ice is absolutely nothing but garbage and the last couple of weeks there have been some signs of a polynya forming northeast of Svalbard. While refreezing will take place over the majority of the Arctic soon we should wonder for how much longer melting, both from above and bottom melt, will take place? The ice in this area should be the most vulnerable one. One factor is the high content of salinity as ice with high salinity are much more vulnerable for melting than ice with lower salinity and this area is by far the one with highest salinity in the whole Arctic.

The current forecast from ARC accessible at ACFNS shows an increased sea surface salinity (SSS) during the next 7 days.

The ice marked as purple at BREMEN maps which has prevented more melting but seems to take a hit now when we are coming to an end of this melt season. I'm not sure whether we'll see a refreezing here but a more slower one and perhaps a polynya to open up shortly. I wouldn't be surprised if we will see the ice in the area southwest of Svalbard and southeast of Franz Josefs land more or less melt out completely later.

//LMV

viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3416 on: September 03, 2014, 09:44:25 PM »
2014 had the 2nd lowest August melt volume according to PIOMAS (graph).

July 2014 set a new record low for July melt. But as with 2012, that held the previous record for low July melt, the following month saw a relatively higher melt that did not set a new record. The most plausible explanation is probably that low July melt meant there was more ice left to melt for August?
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viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3417 on: September 03, 2014, 10:32:44 PM »
As expected, the addition of the new data point for August 2014 — with the lowest loss % at the end of the month since before the iPhone — postpones the projected August Zero Ice Day from 2021 to 2023.

The inclusion of the August 2014 data point also postpones the year when for the first time all 12 months will have days with no Arctic sea ice from 2050 to 2054.
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pearscot

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3418 on: September 04, 2014, 05:42:21 AM »
I can't believe how little the ice melted out this year during July and August. Here I was thinking that we would have another interesting one to watch with the warmer winter the preceded it, and I totally missed the mark.  Sure the bite is pretty impressive, but after last year I just have no idea what's going on up there as the ice is more resilient than I though. Who knows what will happen next year, but I thought the ice would be a bit closer to melting out this year but I was 100 percent wrong. So confused about our climate at the moment.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3419 on: September 04, 2014, 06:39:37 AM »
I can't believe how little the ice melted out this year during July and August.

I can, here's why.

I think the ice which previously *would* have melted out already has. Post 2007, I think the distribution and quality of the ice has changed such that there isn't easily accessible ice for the energy inputs into the arctic to melt. I'm coming around to Chris' position that we have reached some new symmetry point, which will now provide the attractor around which ice volume will fluctuate until such time the net enthalpy in the system is high enough to seriously inhibit the refreeze.

More and more, I'm sensing the state of the ice in April is a key determinant of September outcomes. I'm not dismissing the impact of weather; but that same volatility which soon will push us past 2012 will no doubt roar back to a "recovery" that returns conditions to the symmetry point.

Until we reach the next tipping point.

I'm not sure where that is, but a hint might be found in computing the net gross heat required to melt the current arctic pack volume.  When the net sensible heat available in the upper layers of the actic ocean reach a level where that much energy is available in July, is when we may see a sub 1,000,000 KM2 extent in September.

My 2 pfennig.

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pearscot

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3420 on: September 04, 2014, 02:28:07 PM »
I can't believe how little the ice melted out this year during July and August.

I can, here's why.

I think the ice which previously *would* have melted out already has. Post 2007, I think the distribution and quality of the ice has changed such that there isn't easily accessible ice for the energy inputs into the arctic to melt. I'm coming around to Chris' position that we have reached some new symmetry point, which will now provide the attractor around which ice volume will fluctuate until such time the net enthalpy in the system is high enough to seriously inhibit the refreeze.

More and more, I'm sensing the state of the ice in April is a key determinant of September outcomes. I'm not dismissing the impact of weather; but that same volatility which soon will push us past 2012 will no doubt roar back to a "recovery" that returns conditions to the symmetry point.

Until we reach the next tipping point.

I'm not sure where that is, but a hint might be found in computing the net gross heat required to melt the current arctic pack volume.  When the net sensible heat available in the upper layers of the actic ocean reach a level where that much energy is available in July, is when we may see a sub 1,000,000 KM2 extent in September.

My 2 pfennig.



That's a very good explanation, thanks! That does make sense. There is still no denying that even with a year like this one, the ice pack certainly doesn't look healthy.  Well if we do indeed have an El Nino event, I will be interested in seeing its impacts.
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Atomant

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3421 on: September 04, 2014, 03:39:25 PM »
I can't believe how little the ice melted out this year during July and August. Here I was thinking that we would have another interesting one to watch with the warmer winter the preceded it, and I totally missed the mark.  Sure the bite is pretty impressive, but after last year I just have no idea what's going on up there as the ice is more resilient than I though. Who knows what will happen next year, but I thought the ice would be a bit closer to melting out this year but I was 100 percent wrong. So confused about our climate at the moment.

I've been pondering about this too (like I'd guess many of you have too) and did suggest in the past whether tundra fires had something to do with the aparent summer melt pauses. The typical response from posters was that smoke would have initially a heating effect, not cooling, but I still think that, as summertime sunlight reaches the Arctic at an angle, a lot of radiation will be 'screened' by smoke. This coupled with the ever increasing Noctilucent Clouds could easily deter a lot of radiation that would otherwise reach the surface. Artic NLC's have a strong link with CH4 and do reach their maximum intensity by mid June heavily covering the Arctic until about early August when they usually start to fizzle out. Perhaps it is just coincidence that the 'stepping' on the ice graphs occur at the same time as Tundra fires and NLC's but perhaps they are indeed influencing the melt by blocking/diverting a fair amount of radiation whilst they're on. We'll see next year if this same pattern of smoke, Nlc's slowed melt develops like it has done for the last 4-5 years.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3422 on: September 04, 2014, 04:40:39 PM »
I’ll hazard a guess that the next “2007” or “2012” (record minimum Arctic sea ice) will be preceded by a winter with greater than normal ice export.  The export would most likely be through Fram Strait, but might be east of Svalbard.

The 2007 melting season was preceded by a winter where the Nares Strait never stopped exporting ice (and exported about twice the average amount ice in 2007 - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/233778822_Large_sea_ice_outflow_into_the_Nares_Strait_in_2007).  The ‘pressure release’ this provided to the Lincoln Sea may have had an additional effect on Arctic ice movement (and consequent melt) that year.
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Rick Aster

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3423 on: September 04, 2014, 04:54:55 PM »

Area 1 & 2 are interesting as they are consisting of weak ice that just are holding up the SIE numbers, especially area no 2.


I am curious about the fate of the “sea ice island” in the middle of area 1. It looks like there is a reasonably solid block of ice 100 kilometers square, and it shows signs of staying put as much of the ice around it melts out. It is hard to say whether most of the surrounding low-concentration ice will melt away this month, but if it does, will the remaining ice be weakened at the edges and eventually break apart, or might it drift north and join up with the main ice pack? Just something I’m keeping an eye on.

viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3424 on: September 04, 2014, 05:52:52 PM »
«It ain't over till the fat lady sings.»

Quote
Most of the models continue to predict El Niño to develop during September-November and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El Niño. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC). The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3425 on: September 04, 2014, 06:48:54 PM »
«It ain't over till the fat lady sings.»

Quote
Most of the models continue to predict El Niño to develop during September-November and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El Niño. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC). The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

Concur with the sentiment, viddaloo.

That said, paradoxically, I'm not convinced El Niño will increase melt, certainly not immediately.  From what I understand, it may actually support conditions which reduce ice export.  I am wondering if it might reduce refreeze volume.  That might be the most direct negative impact, as with a breakdown of the polar vortex, much more atmospheric heat can be imported into the arctic with a three fold effect on the heat budget..

- heat to replace that lost to re radiation
- snow cover on the ice to reduce heat flow out of the ocean
- increased cloud cover to slow radiation through the atmosphere.

The freeze will be as interesting to watch as the melt.
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viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3426 on: September 04, 2014, 09:10:58 PM »
The freeze will be as interesting to watch as the melt.

Yup. Up until now after the 2007 / «iPhone Gap» regime change, refreeze has been able to more or less keep up with the increased melt. That is, when there's an 80-85% meltout, there's almost an equal refreeze. When for the first time the refreeze fails miserably, there will be a good chance for a total meltdown. I think a failed refreeze may be the next big thing on the sea ice horizon. And when, for a number of years, the freeze cannot keep up with the melt, the summer sea ice will be doomed.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3427 on: September 04, 2014, 09:51:06 PM »
I had a couple of thoughts about the export of ice and also MYI.

First export.  Is it not the case that storms move the older ice because it's freeboard is higher?  What happens when it's all 1YI?

My second thought was how we measure MYI.  So if 1" of ice survives to be recorded by the satellites, then it's 2YI?  Even if it is only the thickness of 1YI+1"?

Then what happens if it melts out again to 1" before freezing again?  Is it then 3YI?  Or is it FYI?

Is this why we are seeing surprises in MYI areas melting so quickly?  Also if this is the case what does it to do the PIOMAS model?  Finally what happens when 50% of the arctic is FYI+1" and we get a perfect year for melt and export?  Or even a winter in which we only form 50% of the expected ice?

I foresee that we have many more surprises to come and many more inconsistencies in our reporting.  The only one which will not be a surprise is when it goes ice free in summer.  That is a given.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3428 on: September 04, 2014, 10:45:50 PM »
NeilT - the force applied by wind to ice "freeboard" is trivial compared to that applied obliquely to the surface of the ice.  "Freeboard" becomes important only at such time it becomes a significant fraction of the surface area of the flow. This won't happen until the flow size is reduced to very small sizes... A few tens of meters at most.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3429 on: September 04, 2014, 11:02:18 PM »
Regarding ice thickness, even 1" surviving would be MYI.  However, you are looking at an "edge" condition.  The volume of ice surviving at that thickness is sufficiently trivial that for practical purposes it is indistinguishable from measurement error.

Large areas of Ice below a few tens of centimeters in thickness disintegrate pretty rapidly.  It simply can't stand up to the sheer or compressive forces applied to it.  The "cubes" created may survive, but won't refreeze as a single coherent sheet. They become a very different animal than MYI, I expect.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3430 on: September 05, 2014, 08:31:21 AM »
Latest GFS 00z run is rather interesting! :D Warm air enter the Arctic from Sibiria followed by a powerful cyclone over ESS and that part of CAB in about 3 days followed by more HP and warm air intrusion combined with warm winds from Sibiria. The question is whether this plausible forecast scenario will have any significant effect on the weakest sea ice there?

--> if this had been june, july or early august my answer would have been "YES", but now when we are in September?

In addition, the GFS have for a while now signaled a switch in the weather pattern about a week ahead in the region at Svalbard and Franz Josefs Land. This would mean a lot of warm southerlies entering this region with temps above freeze point there for about a week or so if one is to believe the forecast. We all know how reliable they are 10 days ahead but one may look at the overall pattern. If this would come true I think there is a fair chance that the sea ice between Svalbard and Franz Josefs land may take a serious hit. At least it should lead to compaction and a delay in the date when the SIE minimum arrives.

My final question is if there is enough time to put the SIE number per JAXA below 5 Mn km2 with only 0-2 weeks left of this melt season which in my opinion has been quite boring... Hope to see a more exciting 2015! 8)

eisberg

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3431 on: September 05, 2014, 10:13:49 AM »
New member but regular reader. Perhaps all that heat is spread around more, rossby waves or whatever, and melting the permafrost and causing fires instead. If polar vortex takes cold downsouth in winter it could take summer heat and consistent wind patterns away too. All I read about permafrost focuses on methane release, whereas if one were to take permafrost and whole arctic into account and measure permafrost as ice and give total ice melt(how to measure this is beyond me) then one could measure total energy going into this and see energy available annd where rossby waves moved it. Essentially the ice pack breakdown has eliminated the concept of arctic as such, which was, as we now know, a function of stable rossby waves. Total energy, cold in winter, warm in summer, strong wind action, moves around whole northern hemisphere(mostly N.. America?) so that the linear predictability is gone.so if instead of focusing on ice we add the permafrost melt and average water temp. and average land temp above arctivc circle(ca. Fairbanks ) we might be getting somewhere. In other words I have a freezer at home and I open the freezer door. Now it cools the whole room, which is insulated say but less coolness per area. Rossby waves are the door. When all permafrost is melted for always then and only then will all ice be meltable and ice and permafrost will be gone year round only together. Our focus is too narrow.

NeilT

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3432 on: September 05, 2014, 10:38:20 AM »
Large areas of Ice below a few tens of centimeters in thickness disintegrate pretty rapidly.  It simply can't stand up to the sheer or compressive forces applied to it.  The "cubes" created may survive, but won't refreeze as a single coherent sheet. They become a very different animal than MYI, I expect.

However at our current level of technology, that is being presented as contiguous surviving ice.

As you say a very different animal which will, probably, respond to melt in a very different way.  It was just a thought.
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3433 on: September 05, 2014, 01:06:34 PM »
The navy model seems to show the thicker tongue of ice towards Beaufort and Chukchi has been significantly reduced in the last few weeks, and there seems to be more damage to come with a strong low pressure - although it doesn't last long.  Some solid melt weather in the later part of this season has not been enough to do more than keep 2014 just ahead of 2013, but has it done damage to the pack that may make a difference in future years? 
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

iceman

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3434 on: September 05, 2014, 02:36:30 PM »
... there seems to be more damage to come with a strong low pressure - although it doesn't last long.  ...
In fact two consecutive lows.  The first one (next two days) is mostly over open water in the Laptev, but will compact some of the loose ice to its east.  The second (following 2-3 days) moves northward from the ESS and causes dispersion and melting - maybe quite a bit.  Then compaction follows again as the low moves toward CAA and peters out.

My guess is aftereffects of the second cyclone - combined with late-season melt of anomalously high ice in the Barents - will bring the season's area/extent lows on 14th Sept or so.

Errorr

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3435 on: September 05, 2014, 11:43:44 PM »
«It ain't over till the fat lady sings.»

Quote
Most of the models continue to predict El Niño to develop during September-November and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El Niño. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC). The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

Concur with the sentiment, viddaloo.

That said, paradoxically, I'm not convinced El Niño will increase melt, certainly not immediately.  From what I understand, it may actually support conditions which reduce ice export.  I am wondering if it might reduce refreeze volume.  That might be the most direct negative impact, as with a breakdown of the polar vortex, much more atmospheric heat can be imported into the arctic with a three fold effect on the heat budget..

- heat to replace that lost to re radiation
- snow cover on the ice to reduce heat flow out of the ocean
- increased cloud cover to slow radiation through the atmosphere.

The freeze will be as interesting to watch as the melt.



From what I have read the majority of El Niño heat is transported to the south pole. The one study I saw suggested there was a minor correlation with more melt in the Russian sector of the arctic but no signal from El Niño anywhere else.

The interesting thing to me is the massive amount of excess heat in the N. Pacific. It has been driving the crazy convection in the East Pacific basin and all the hurricanes there. San Diego looks like it might get some biblical rain in about a week.

viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3436 on: September 06, 2014, 08:06:05 AM »
2014 is 6th lowest in volume as of Sep 5th!

This is experimental only, based on extent (ijis) and volume (piomas) for 2009, which is very similar to 2014 in both data sets.
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anthropocene

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3437 on: September 06, 2014, 08:32:00 AM »
I can't believe how little the ice melted out this year during July and August.

I can, here's why.

I think the ice which previously *would* have melted out already has. Post 2007, I think the distribution and quality of the ice has changed such that there isn't easily accessible ice for the energy inputs into the arctic to melt. I'm coming around to Chris' position that we have reached some new symmetry point, which will now provide the attractor around which ice volume will fluctuate until such time the net enthalpy in the system is high enough to seriously inhibit the refreeze.

More and more, I'm sensing the state of the ice in April is a key determinant of September outcomes. I'm not dismissing the impact of weather; but that same volatility which soon will push us past 2012 will no doubt roar back to a "recovery" that returns conditions to the symmetry point.

Until we reach the next tipping point.

I'm not sure where that is, but a hint might be found in computing the net gross heat required to melt the current arctic pack volume.  When the net sensible heat available in the upper layers of the actic ocean reach a level where that much energy is available in July, is when we may see a sub 1,000,000 KM2 extent in September.

My 2 pfennig.


I agree with the idea of the new "symmetry point" ( A better word taken from maths could be ' Lorentz attractor').  I think Neven hit the nail on the head with the term 'in-situ melting' to describe 2013 and 2014. I would go further -  This term could apply to all years 2007 and later apart from 2012.  I do not agree with the idea that more energy is required. I haven't done the calculation but instinctively I would say that there is already enough energy in the arctic ocean heat content (along with in summer the atmospheric heat content (especially water vapour)) to melt all the ice. The tipping-point which will move the melt season to the next "symmetry point" will be when a new mechanism appears that can transfer more of that existing energy to the ice.  I guess this will be more and stronger cyclones as previewed by GAC2012. I also have a hunch that this will happen in the next decade or so but it is only that - a hunch.  All those people attacking predictions (including the IPCC) of ice-free only by 2050 or later  have to come up with a new mechanism of energy transfer to the ice and show how it will occur in the near future.

iceman

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3438 on: September 06, 2014, 03:37:21 PM »
Area 1 & 2 are interesting as they are consisting of weak ice that just are holding up the SIE numbers, especially area no 2.
I am curious about the fate of the “sea ice island” in the middle of area 1. It looks like there is a reasonably solid block of ice 100 kilometers square, and it shows signs of staying put as much of the ice around it melts out. It is hard to say whether most of the surrounding low-concentration ice will melt away this month, but if it does, will the remaining ice be weakened at the edges and eventually break apart, or might it drift north and join up with the main ice pack? Just something I’m keeping an eye on.

I've been wondering about that too.  Shifting pressure patterns over the next several days make it tricky to guess what will happen.  My take on Climate Reanalyzer is that the “sea ice island” (and surrounding low-concentration ice) will be part of the general compaction movement for a day or two, but from 8th Sept there's an increasing chance of it detaching from the main pack.  This would be an interesting natural experiment on whether detached ice melts out so late in the season.

viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3439 on: September 06, 2014, 09:14:58 PM »
2014 is 6th lowest in volume as of Sep 5th!

Who thinks 2014 can melt like crazy and pick a fight with 2007 to rejoin the Twenty Tens? Admittedly, it's a tough match, and we'd have to set a new September melt record to accomplish our goals. But with a heatwave in Siberia....
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3440 on: September 06, 2014, 09:56:57 PM »
Viddaloo: have you watched latest EURO 12z run? Look at the very powerful cyclone at +192-216h with a MSLP about 965-970 hPa.. would be very interesting to see how the ice in that region would respond to such a powerful cyclone. Wonder if Neven will make a outlook for the weather and when the minima will occur? 8)

The "melting rate" for what's left of the melt season have been in the range of 0,12-0,34 mn km2. I think we may go down to 4,9 Mn km2 if we are lucky but I hardly doubt we'll end up with a SIE lower than 2013 unless there is a phenomenally strong "melting" occurring in the next week or so..

Interestingly, the ice around Svalbard and Franz Josefs land seems to finally respond to the temps above the freeze point..  :) Let's see how much more the ice will disperse/crack or melt away there. If it will, it would certainly improve the odds for a very late minimum.

//LMV

Neven

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3441 on: September 06, 2014, 11:08:06 PM »
Wonder if Neven will make a outlook for the weather and when the minima will occur? 8)

Due to lack of time and energy I've decided to postpone ASI update 9 to next week. But I'm keeping a closer watch now on when the minimum will hit. although I find it extremely difficult this year as the ice is said to be so much thicker now.
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viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3442 on: September 06, 2014, 11:37:12 PM »
Viddaloo: have you watched latest EURO 12z run? Look at the very powerful cyclone at +192-216h with a MSLP about 965-970 hPa.. would be very interesting to see how the ice in that region would respond to such a powerful cyclone.

Edit: Nope, not yet, Vader. I usually find those 'euros' right here. Link?

September 2008 melted 751 km³ from Aug31 to minimum on Sep19. September 2014 needs to melt the 2008 record amount of 751 km³ plus another 11 km³ in order to get from 7220 km³ (Aug31) to 6458 km³, which was the 2007 minimum (also on Sep19).

Such a melt would further strengthen the upward graph of September melts in km³, as well as the graph of September's share of the yearly melt (where September is rising, while July and August are falling sharply).
« Last Edit: September 07, 2014, 02:12:59 AM by viddaloo »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3443 on: September 07, 2014, 03:26:03 AM »
<snippage>
I do not agree with the idea that more energy is required. I haven't done the calculation but instinctively I would say that there is already enough energy in the arctic ocean heat content (along with in summer the atmospheric heat content (especially water vapour)) to melt all the ice.
<more snippage>

I agree that the energy is there.  However, with the current behavior in the system - circulation, currents, etc. - it is not accessible.

For the ice to collapse requires a further increase in the total heat in the system.  Once some threshold is reached, the reservoir of energy you are aluding to will "overflow", and the ice will disappear.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3444 on: September 07, 2014, 11:56:03 AM »
I don't know if anyone has pointed this out, but 2014 saw the second smallest PIOMAS volume loss from 1/6 to 31/8, only 1996 was lower.

That is remarkable considering that all the other post 2007 years are in the top 13 largest June - August losses.

1981   -15.902
1998   -15.715
1993   -15.709
1999   -15.548
2012   -15.484
1987   -15.345
2010   -15.262
1991   -15.113
2007   -15.092
2009   -15.065
2008   -14.964
2013   -14.816
2011   -14.749
2002   -14.747
1985   -14.724
1994   -14.695
1995   -14.694
1980   -14.516
2000   -14.474
1997   -14.456
2003   -14.415
2005   -14.337
2004   -14.317
1979   -14.303
1983   -14.119
1988   -13.956
1984   -13.94
1989   -13.807
1982   -13.719
2006   -13.681
1990   -13.544
1992   -13.465
1986   -13.443
2001   -13.265
2014   -12.846
1996   -12.639

DavidR

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3445 on: September 07, 2014, 02:21:25 PM »
Chris ,
I think we need to address the question of why 2014 melt  appears to be so low compared to even 2013. July was clearly critical as the extent loss dropped right off then after a rapid decline in late JUne.
2012 was exceptionally warm , has 2014 been as warm as 2012 or as cool or cooler than 2013 during these months.
Pity  GISS don't give us monthly  temperatures for th4 64N+ latitudes.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2014, 02:32:58 AM by DavidR »
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iceman

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3446 on: September 07, 2014, 02:22:39 PM »
... we'd have to set a new September melt record to accomplish our goals. But with a heatwave in Siberia....
It's been a warm summer there, but (I suspect) doing more damage to the tundra permafrost than to the sea ice.

...unless there is a phenomenally strong "melting" occurring in the next week or so...

Probably not much actual melting (excepting Barents), though area/extent numbers might indicate otherwise for a few days.  The next two central-Arctic cyclones will cause some Ekman pumping, but they aren't forecast to spend much time over the low-concentration ice. While pressure gradients seem to favor compaction from 10th-12th Sept and maybe longer, compactness is already high in the central pack and I doubt it can be pushed much further.

jdallen

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3447 on: September 08, 2014, 08:15:31 AM »
... The next two central-Arctic cyclones will cause some Ekman pumping, ...
I think here you have your finger on the pulse of it. 

The sense I have of it is, that 2014 has been astonishingly "static".  There has been very little movement of ice across the CAB.  Without that movement, we have neither (1) export of MYI to warmer water or (2) disruption of thermo and haloclines which in previous years provided heat to assist melting.

Someone (I forget who) in another discussion with me noted correctly that the heat to melt *all* of the ice is already present in the Arctic Ocean.  It is only by way of lack of convection that it doesn't happen.  The upshot *I* would say is, that means the heat is still there.  Atlantic and Pacific currents are still steadily pumping heat into the basin from lower latitudes.  If it isn't melting ice, and it isn't re-radiating out of the top of the atmosphere, it means it is stacking up at depth.  I expect we will meet that heat somewhere in the near future.

One summer with serious July/August ice movement may be all it takes for a major collapse.  Similar to 2013 however, I think for the next few decades there will be rebounds.  I would not be surprised if we see (Following Chris' slow transition arguments) multiple 2012's followed by 2013's and 2014's in the next few decades... each "swing" digging a little bit deeper into the remaining ice.
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viddaloo

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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3448 on: September 08, 2014, 09:10:48 AM »
I went out of battery when writing, but the gist of it was you will have years under and over the longtime trend line. What do you expect from a slow year like 2014?!
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Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« Reply #3449 on: September 08, 2014, 09:17:25 AM »
... The next two central-Arctic cyclones will cause some Ekman pumping, ...
Someone (I forget who) in another discussion with me noted correctly that the heat to melt *all* of the ice is already present in the Arctic Ocean.  It is only by way of lack of convection that it doesn't happen.  The upshot *I* would say is, that means the heat is still there.  Atlantic and Pacific currents are still steadily pumping heat into the basin from lower latitudes.  If it isn't melting ice, and it isn't re-radiating out of the top of the atmosphere, it means it is stacking up at depth.  I expect we will meet that heat somewhere in the near future.

I would have expected the Arctic Ocean to be fairly efficient at cooling off the Atlantic and Pacific currents.  Partly this is shown by the greatly increased winter surface temperatures, particularly in October -- the increased heat that is arriving in the current is being moved from the water to the air.  As a thin layer of ice forms, the water just beneath that ice concentrates salinity and sinks, creating a convection current.  The ice at the edge of the pack where the incoming currents are warmest, has cracks which prevent that ice from being a good insulator.  The incoming Atlantic current should be rapidly cooled as it enters the Arctic in winter.  Or, at least, that's what I've been thinking...