2022 Sea ice area and extent data

[Juan C. García]

JAXA sea ice extent 12,125 k on 29 December, an increase of about 34.k

Thanks Tom Stedman. 

Happy new year to all !!! 

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 31^st, 2022:
      12,151,305 km², an increase of 28,132 km².

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,151,305 KM2 as at 31-Dec-2022

- Extent gain on this day 28k which is 4 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7,627 k, which is 428 k, 5.3% less than the 10 year average of 8,055 k.

- Extent is 4th lowest in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  475 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  46 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  14 k LESS than  2018,
- Extent is  256 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  277 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,567 k LESS than the 1980’s Average
- Extent is  139 k LESS than the 2010's Average

On average 79.5% of extent gains from minimum to maximum done, and 68 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2023 of 14.09 million km2, 0.21 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[psymmo7]

...2012 exclusion from 10 year average - add a 15 year average?

[pikaia]

If 2012 had been unusually high instead of low would people still want to change the way that the average is calculated?

[oren]

I would personally go for a fixed-width sliding window of 10 or 15 year average, or a fixed window of averaging each decade separately, and stick to it. However, this is really up to the gracious posters who are providing us with the daily updates.
In any case, anyone is welcome to post charts averages over their chosen periods, when they feel it contributes.

[icy voyeur2]

If 2012 had been unusually high instead of low would people still want to change the way that the average is calculated?

This is a wise question.

[Stephan]

I would prefer to keep the last 10 year average and not to make an exception for 2012. Otherwise we will have the same discussion on Jan 01, 2024...

[gerontocrat]

Re above posts

When in doubt, do nowt

Note that 2012 will disappear in 2023 from the previous 10 years average used in projections. Will make a significant difference to that average during next melting season.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,115,936 KM2 as at 31-Dec-2022

- Area gain on this day 39k, which is 12 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 7,899 k, which is 286 k, 3.5% less than the 10 year average of 8,185 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Area is  516 k LESS than 2021,
- Area is  51 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  51 k MORE than  2018,
- Area is  218 k MORE than 2017
- Area is  54 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  74 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 81.2% of Area gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 70 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining Area gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2023 of 12.96 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the March 2016 record low maximum of 12.63 million km2, and 6th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,167,483 KM2 as at 01-Jan-2023

- Extent gain on this day 16k which is 20 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7,644 k, which is 487 k, 6.0% less than the 10 year average of 8,131 k.

- Extent is 4th lowest in the 44 year satellite record

- Extent is  7 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  265 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  222 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  92 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  579 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,685 k LESS than the 1980’s Average
- Extent is  173 k LESS than the 2010's Average

On average 80.4% of extent gains from minimum to maximum done, and 67 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2023 of 14.05 million km2, 0.18 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[kassy]

I suggest to add the previous post to the 2023 thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.0.html

[gerontocrat]

from JAXA Data - a look at 2022

The December 2022 Monthly average sea ice extent is 11.40 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record, 0.20 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.21 million km2 below the average of Dec '21.

[/b]The 2022 Annual daily average sea ice extent[/b] illustrates how 2022 was the 2nd year of sea ice recovery since the record low year of 2020. Note also that the 2012 Annual average was 6th lowest in the satellite record, despite the record low minimum. 

The annual average is  is 10.20 million km2, 11th lowest in the satellite record, 0.45 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.12 million km2 above the average of Dec '21.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

I've had a look at my Open Water Percentages Graphs for 2022

There is not a lot to say except the open water percentages are either flat or mostly a slight downward trend, reflecting that 2022 saw sea ice recover a bit.

I attach the graphs for the Total Arctic, the High Arctic and the Peripheral Seas.

click images to enlarge.

ps: The graphs for the 14 seas have so little to say that I am not bothering to post them.

[Stephan]

I added the monthly extent value for December 2022 into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2022) December extent is now 12.64 M km². December 2022 had an average extent of 11.92 M km², which is 0.72 M km² less than that long-term average.
This month's value was below above the long-term linear trend line. The difference of the actual month from that trend line is +0.44 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this December should have been at 11.48 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has become once again flatter by one digit (-0.0533 → -0.0532).

See attached graph. Click to enlarge it.

[Glen Koehler]

This month's value was below above the long-term linear trend line.