I've seen several reports that there now sufficient votes to pass both Keystone XL and TPP/TTIP, not to mention putting the EPA in a climate denier's hands. I'd post links, but it's late and depressing.
The Republicans can pass those sorts of laws but without the ability to override PBO's veto their actions are meaningless.
Expect a lot of political theater over the next several months as Republican pass a lot of legislation doing things like repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Legislation destined to go nowhere because they don't have 67 votes in the Senate.
Expect them to create some real strife when it comes budget time. They'll attempt to kill a lot of things they don't like by not funding them. I suspect PBO will refuse to accept a budget with cuts that are too extreme. We may see another government shutdown which is unlikely to help Republicans.
Then, as 2016 comes into view look to Republicans to start acting more "responsible" and passing some legislation that is acceptable to PBO. They'll make some almost meaningless progress on things like immigration just so that they can tell minorities that they did something.
In the meantime expect PBO to pull out the stops and use his executive powers to make some changes. I expect to see the EPA stomp on carbon and methane emissions. That can be done based on existing laws that have already passed Supreme Court review. And expect the DOE to do some things to help renewables.
PBO may trade away the Keystone pipeline for something important. The pipeline, as long as it doesn't run through very delicate landscape, is really pretty much not important. We'll continue burning oil until we have affordable, longer range EVs. One more pipeline won't make or break our oil use. Only moving away from oil will stop the use of oil.
At this point the federal government's role in renewables and electric vehicles is largely done. Federal subsidizes have helped lower prices and build the industries to the point at which market forces are taking over.
We'll need federal assistance for things like high speed rail, but not until after California builds some so that people understand the value. That's something for post-2016.
Most of the heavy lifting that remains can be done at the state level. California and New York are supporting storage. Hawaii will be in that game soon. Those three states along with Germany, Japan and a few other countries will be enough to build a storage industry. Tidal generation will get built up by other countries. Private money have taken over solar and wind technology development.
I think all will be fine. Not saying that things couldn't be a lot better, but overall I don't see any appreciable backsliding and I see wind and solar continuing to grow based on their affordability.
