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sidd

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #200 on: November 29, 2018, 12:20:46 AM »
Sarhadi et al. find that hot and dry conditions are becoming more likely:

" anthropogenic climate forcing has doubled the joint probability of years that are  both warm and dry in the same location (relative to the 1961–1990 baseline)"

doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3487

open access. read all about it.

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bligh8

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #201 on: December 07, 2018, 03:56:44 PM »
Climate and the Global Famine of 1876–78

Abstract

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the “Monsoon Asia” region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870–76), a record-breaking El Niño (1877–78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations—one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SSTs—were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Niño in 1877–78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

." It was arguably the worst environmental disaster to ever befall humanity and one of the worst calamities of any sort in at least the last 150 years, with a loss of life comparable to the World Wars and the influenza epidemic of 1918/19.

"The Global Famine was initiated by severe droughts in several regions that persisted for multiple seasons between 1875 and 1878. In Fig. 1, we identify the temporal evolution of these regional droughts. The drought started in India with a failure of the 1875 winter monsoon season, and dry conditions persisted through the summer of 1877. In East Asia, the drought started in spring 1876, and the lack of rainfall persisted through summer 1878. Subsequently, droughts developed in parts of South Africa, northern Africa, and northeastern Brazil in following seasons that lasted till at least 1878. Relatively shorter but severe droughts also occurred in western Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia between mid-1877 and 1878. Droughts in most of these regions are often associated with the occurrence of El Niño events (e.g., Kumar et al. 2006; Slingo and Annamalai 2000; Ropelewski and Halpert 1987; Wang et al. 2017; Xu et al. 2004). While previous studies (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Aceituno et al. 2009) have identified the presence of a strong El Niño during the Great Drought, the El Niño conditions only developed in 1877 and waned in 1878. However, the drought in key areas afflicted by famines—including India, northeastern Brazil, and China—started prior to the development of the El Niño or lasted longer than its duration.


 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0159.1
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 08:10:10 PM by bligh8 »

SteveMDFP

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #202 on: December 07, 2018, 06:23:01 PM »
Climate and the Global Famine of 1876–78

Abstract

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, 

Thanks for this historical review.  A disturbing cautionary tale.  One wonders how well (or poorly) the global economic system would manage a similar crisis today.  We surely don't store enough food to manage such an event adequately.  Food prices, I imagine, would rise so high that only the affluent might avoid starvation.

sidd

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #203 on: December 07, 2018, 07:42:23 PM »
The effect of the drought in 1877-1879 is gruesomely documented by Mike Davis in "Late Victorian Holocausts"

When I was a very small child I recall meeting a survivor. He was very old then. He had survived as an infant through the generosity of a local prince who made sure that the children in his little fief had something to eat. The parents were not so fortunate and died in droves.

sidd

wdmn

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #204 on: May 02, 2019, 01:05:53 AM »
Global Warming Was Already Fueling Droughts in Early 1900s, Study Shows


https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01052019/drought-climate-change-fingerprints-global-warming-20th-century-tree-rings-marvel-cook

Global warming has been fueling droughts since the early 20th Century, when soils started drying out at the same time across parts of North and Central America, Eurasia, Australia and the Mediterranean, new research shows.

The researchers say the surprising early-century findings provide the clearest signal yet that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are changing the hydroclimate in ways that can devastate agriculture, health and livelihoods.

...

"What we're seeing is very suggestive of a role for greenhouse gases, bigger than anything we've seen previously," Marvel said. "We're not arguing here that there is a really large effect. What we're saying is, we're picking out the underlying note against the background of a symphony. That note is faint but it's definitely there. And to find it, you need to look at long-term trends and wide areas."

Darvince

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #205 on: May 02, 2019, 11:44:16 AM »
I found the paper for anyone who is curious, since the article didn't seem to have any links:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1149-8

Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence
    Kate Marvel, Benjamin I. Cook, Céline J. W. Bonfils, Paul J. Durack, Jason E. Smerdon & A. Park Williams

Abstract
Although anthropogenic climate change is expected to have caused large shifts in temperature and rainfall, the detection of human influence on global drought has been complicated by large internal variability and the brevity of observational records. Here we address these challenges using reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index obtained with data from tree rings that span the past millennium. We show that three distinct periods are identifiable in climate models, observations and reconstructions during the twentieth century. In recent decades (1981 to present), the signal of greenhouse gas forcing is present but not yet detectable at high confidence. Observations and reconstructions differ significantly from an expected pattern of greenhouse gas forcing around mid-century (1950–1975), coinciding with a global increase in aerosol forcing. In the first half of the century (1900–1949), however, a signal of greenhouse-gas-forced change is robustly detectable. Multiple observational datasets and reconstructions using data from tree rings confirm that human activities were probably affecting the worldwide risk of droughts as early as the beginning of the twentieth century.


As I'm just posting the paper and haven't read it, my first impression is that I'm very surprised that the relatively small run-up of temperatures to ~0.3C above preindustrial may have been enough to kick off global warming impacts.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #206 on: May 02, 2019, 03:58:48 PM »
I recall reading somewhere, years ago, about a detectable anthropogenic effect on climate going back about 10,000 years [well, 8,000 years].  A quick internet search finds a 2011 Nature article that supports my memory.
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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #207 on: May 02, 2019, 04:41:54 PM »
Pmt started a topic in 2014, Early Anthropocene.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,852.0.html
There's a video lecture posted in Reply #90 with Ruddiman.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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vox_mundi

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #208 on: May 06, 2019, 01:41:43 AM »
Drought Affects Panama Canal Shipping 
https://learningenglish.voanews.com/amp/drought-affects-panama-canal-shipping/4900861.html

... Carlos Vargas is the vice president of environment and water for the Canal Authority. He said recently that Gatun — one of the largest artificial lakes in the world – was 1.4 meters below normal levels for this time of year. It has dropped more than 0.2 meters since early April. A smaller lake that also supplies the waterway, Alajuela, was 2.2 meters below usual.

“These low levels in the Panama Canal are the product of four or five months of almost zero precipitation,” Vargas told The Associated Press. “It really has been the driest dry season we’ve had in the history of the canal. The flow of rivers to the lake is down 60%.”

The Canal Authority had to restrict how deeply ships can reach below the surface. That means large ships, mainly from the United States and China, must pass through with less cargo.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #209 on: May 06, 2019, 02:41:45 AM »
Its the little things that will get us. The ones no one has even thought about.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #210 on: June 10, 2019, 07:39:27 PM »
"There is no water - why should people stay here"
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48552199
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nanning

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #211 on: June 10, 2019, 08:07:55 PM »
@Archimid
Quote
Its the little things that will get us. The ones no one has even thought about.
There are many 'little things'. I 'see' most trendlines come together in some 10 years. Of course I'm a 'doomer' and rightfully so.
What do people here think they are 'watching'? Almost everything goes from bad to worse. Year after year.
I'm poor (by choice) so I see in general society more changes than many others. Neo-liberalism, the dogma of the evil one, so to speak.
----------

Back on topic;
Crosspost from the "Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable"-thread:
----------
Potable water problems in South Africa:
http://news.trust.org/item/20190606044543-cbgji/

"With supplies scarce, fights over water are on the rise globally, with water think tank the Pacific Institute recording a surge in the number of related conflicts from about 16 in the 1990s to about 73 in just the past five years."

"Sometimes if you go to a nearby water source, other communities are standing guard at the water. They will beat you if you come near it," said Talent Zuma, 31, who is not related to the former president.

People say the next war will be over water, but here it feels like it has already begun."


more global water info from same source: https://packages.trust.org/running-dry/index.html
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Prisons in your head!

vox_mundi

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #212 on: June 13, 2019, 05:30:53 PM »
South Australia's Droughts are Getting Worse
https://www.unisa.edu.au/Media-Centre/Releases/2019/south-australias-droughts-are-getting-worse/

Despite Adelaide experiencing its wettest day in more than two years this month, a new study by UniSA shows droughts are becoming longer and more severe in South Australia.

The analysis shows a clear pattern of increasing drought across much of South Australia, notably over the State's most heavily inhabited areas and major catchments.

"We looked at data from 1960 to 2010 from every high-quality weather station in the State and there is a clear pattern, with drought increasing in the south of the State and over the Murray-Darling Basin, which is the food bowl of Australia," Prof Beecham says.

The study, published in a Royal Meteorological Society journal, also indicates there has been significant long-term reductions in rainfall at the most problematic time of year, which is through autumn and winter.

"This is when water systems should be recharging and flows should be building up again," Prof Beecham says. "When it is dry during this time, as it was earlier this year, it is a problem for the State's water supplies, as winter rain is soaked up by the dry environment and less ends up in reservoirs."

... "Much of the drought intensification can be linked to changes in two key climatic indices, known as Niño 3.4 and the dipole mode index," Prof Beecham says.

"As a result of changes to temperature and pressure over the Indian and Pacific oceans, South Australia's rainfall patterns are changing."


M. Rashid, S. Beekham, Characterization of meteorological droughts across South Australia, Royal Meteorological Society Journal, 03 February 2019
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 06:56:20 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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kassy

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #214 on: June 16, 2019, 05:25:59 PM »
Namibia is selling a 1000 wild animals (grazers like buffalo, impalas etc) to safe them from death by starvation. The drought is the deadliest in 90 years for animals. Last year 64k died. 

https://www.nu.nl/dieren/5938662/namibie-verkoopt-duizend-wilde-dieren-vanwege-noodtoestand.html

Most of those death were probably october, november and december which is the time the rains return to the country but they did not return last year according to a newspaper article.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 12:27:49 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #216 on: August 09, 2019, 02:05:14 AM »
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DrTskoul

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #217 on: August 09, 2019, 02:05:58 AM »

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #218 on: August 09, 2019, 04:11:46 AM »
Germany faces increasing water shortage:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-facing-risk-of-increased-water-shortages/a-49937042

That is surprising...

Going to be a lot of surprises and wealthy NH countries are going to discover the hard way they are not immune.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #219 on: August 17, 2019, 07:58:17 PM »
https://www.upr.org/post/climate-change-and-land-what-un-science-report-means-utah-s-public-lands
Approximately 75% of Utah is public land, and as Petterson noted one of the increasingly urgent threats for its environment is water scarcity.  Though the report does not make any specific policy recommendations to governments, he believes better forest management practices would help support the state’s water needs.  Additionally, he mentioned other policies backed by the IPCC report to better manage lands and combat climate change, including more sustainable farming and increased urban canopies.

https://nypost.com/2019/08/15/wet-winter-doesnt-end-climate-change-risk-to-colorado-river/
Wet winter doesn’t end climate change risk to Colorado River
FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. — Snow swamped mountains across the US West last winter, leaving enough to thrill skiers into the summer, swelling rivers and streams when it melted, and largely making wildfire restrictions unnecessary. But the wet weather can be misleading.
Climate change means the region is still getting drier and hotter.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2019/08/15/colorado-river-water-drought-arizona-nevada-mexico-first-ever-reductions/2021147001/
Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will be required to take less water from the Colorado River for the first time next year under a set of agreements that aim to keep enough water in Lake Mead to reduce the risk of a crash.
The federal Bureau of Reclamation activated the mandatory reductions in water deliveries on Thursday when it released projections showing that as of Jan. 1, the level of Lake Mead will sit just below a threshold that triggers the cuts.



« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 08:49:27 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #220 on: August 21, 2019, 12:34:31 AM »
The Ladakh region of northern India is one of the world’s highest, driest inhabited places. For centuries, meltwater from winter snows in the Himalayan mountains sustained the tiny villages dotting this remote land.
Now, like many other places in India, parts of Ladakh are running short of water.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-cant-waste-a-drop-india-is-running-out-of-water-11566224878
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philopek

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #221 on: August 21, 2019, 01:11:17 AM »
Germany faces increasing water shortage:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-facing-risk-of-increased-water-shortages/a-49937042

That is surprising...

Going to be a lot of surprises and wealthy NH countries are going to discover the hard way they are not immune.

While it's correct that no place is immune the current news about water shortage in Germany is nothing else than panicmongering and filling the summer-news-hole.

If anything and most probably not even that, few regions will have to build new connections to regions with abundant water supply and lose some autonomy in the process.

Also not probably but at least possible is that some regions will not be able to continue their insane level of water WASTE, means, carelessly using water without wasting a thought.

This is a typical NEWS-Hyped headline seeking news with the sole purpose to make money and fill the newspaper.

Following the news we see an intermittent change of content, one week they complain about possible drought, one week later the same news-channels and papers hype floodings and thunderstorms, then they hype a great sunny summer, only to turn back to lack of rain two weeks after their latest flood, rain and thunderstorms hype.

Not even worth to pay attention to, that part of Europe won't suffer from water shortage for a long time to come, probably never due to the geographic location.

So, being surprise is totally justified and the correct reaction based on common knowledge about water abundance in that region of the world and huge "reserves" too.

People living in places where is very little or no water at all must feel buggered about

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #222 on: September 21, 2019, 01:16:06 AM »
Dry Rivers Offer a Preview of Climate Change
https://eos.org/articles/dry-rivers-offer-a-preview-of-climate-change
Quote
In areas of New Zealand that are undergoing drying trends, many rivers that are currently perennial will become intermittent. Summer low flows are already trending downward in some perennial rivers and will eventually reach zero. Alteration of flows in these rivers by storing and returning irrigation water may modify these trends, but they are inevitably downward in drying areas.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #223 on: September 24, 2019, 10:24:07 PM »
Communities in Ethiopia's Somali Region face chronic drought linked to climate change
https://www.dw.com/en/communities-in-ethiopias-somali-region-face-chronic-drought-linked-to-climate-change/a-50551806
Quote
The Somali Region has suffered from chronic drought for several years, with the worst stretch recorded in 2016, from which many households have yet to recover. This year the short rainy season known as the 'belg', which typically lasts from March to May, once again failed to provide much-anticipated ground water. The livestock have already started to die.
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vox_mundi

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #224 on: October 02, 2019, 11:53:28 PM »
Groundwater Pumping Will 'Devastate' River Systems
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-groundwater-devastate-river.html

Rampant and unsustainable extraction of groundwater reserves crucial for food production will "critically impact" rivers, lakes and wetlands in half of Earth's drainage basins by mid-century, researchers warned Wednesday



... Researchers found that in around 20 percent of drainage basins the tipping point had already been reached where extraction outpaced streamflow.

They also used climate change models to predict how streamflow will diminish in future and found that between 42 and 79 percent of the world's groundwater sites will be unable to sustain aquatic ecosystems by 2050.


Quote
... "It's pretty clear that if there's no water in your stream anymore then your fish and plants are going to die," ... "About half of irrigated crops rely on groundwater. That's a lot (to lose)."

The study, published in Nature, said regions heavily reliant on groundwater for crop production, including Mexico and the Ganges and Indus basins, were already experiencing declining river and stream flows due to overextraction.

And as the demand for groundwater increases, areas of Africa and southern Europe will also see severe water disruption in the decades to come, the team predicted.



British researchers this year warned that future generations faced a groundwater "time bomb" as underground systems would take decades to replenish.

Inge E. M. de Graaf et al. Environmental flow limits to global groundwater pumping, Nature (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #225 on: January 02, 2020, 12:26:31 AM »
Panama Canal in trouble: Drought affecting water supply

https://phys.org/news/2019-12-panama-years-canal-climate-threat.html

sidd

vox_mundi

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #226 on: January 02, 2020, 05:57:26 PM »
Chinese Company Gets Approval to Bottle Water from Drought-Plagued Australian Town
https://qz.com/1776800/chinese-company-gets-approval-to-bottle-water-from-drought-plagued-australian-town/

Drought has been a chronic issue in southeastern Australia for years. In regions such as southern Queensland, months can pass without rain. Local communities have to ration water or risk running out.

Yet a company owned by Chinese investors based in Brisbane still got approved last week to run a commercial water-mining operation in the area. It plans to transport the water to a facility where it can bottle and sell it.

The regional council for Southern Downs, an area along the border of Queensland and New South Wales, signed off on the application by Joyful View Garden Real Estate Development to run a water-extraction plant on its large Cherrabah resort property in the area.

Despite complaints by neighboring property owners, the council approved it—even as it prepared to implement extreme water rations in the area. In the nearby town of Stanthorpe, plans are underway to truck in emergency water, to ensure it doesn’t run completely out. Joyful View, meanwhile, intends to pump water out of the ground at Cherrabah and move it in tankers to a bottling plant on the Gold Coast.

These practices aren’t limited to Australia. In the United States, corporations have been extracting water in dry parts of California—even during drought—and draining aquifers in Florida in order to sell it. The case in Australia comes as the country suffers under record heat and contends with devastating bushfires in nearby New South Wales.

---------------------------


I Drink Your Milkshake! - There Will Be Blood (2007)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #227 on: February 05, 2020, 11:21:27 AM »
This could go into multiple threads...

There’s a new boom in the Permian Basin — wastewater

In the Permian Basin, now the most prolific oil field in the world, hundreds of miles of plastic pipelines snake along dirt roads, drilling pads and the edges of farm fields. But they are not carrying oil. Instead, they’re transporting an equally precious commodity in this arid region straddling the New Mexico-Texas border: water.

...

Without water, there would be no oil and gas boom. Fracking, the most common drilling method in the basin, pumps massive amounts of freshwater — along with sand and chemicals — into shale formations as deep as 10,000 feet, or nearly two miles underground. The fluid cracks open the rock, releasing the oil trapped inside. When the oil gushes to the surface, some of the water and chemicals come up too, along with briny water that occurs naturally in the rock layers — the vestige of an ancient sea.

For every barrel of oil produced in the Permian, about four barrels of this “produced water” come out of the earth along with it. In 2018 alone, New Mexico’s share of the Permian Basin generated 42 billion gallons of oil and gas wastewater, according to the New Mexico Environment Department.

...

Supporters envision a day when treatment technologies are advanced enough to make produced water safe for irrigation — maybe even safe enough to drink from the tap.

But others contend that produced water is too contaminated to ever be anything but waste.

“Even if we could treat produced water to drinking-water standards, why would we?” asked Rebecca Sobel, senior climate and energy campaigner for WildEarth Guardians, a Santa Fe-based environmental group. “Why would the poorest state in the nation invest tremendous amounts of resources into finding a mechanism to turn one of the most toxic substances out there into potable water?”

...

In five years, the Permian is forecast to generate 32 million barrels of produced water per day, up from four million a day currently. By 2030, that number could rise to 38 million barrels daily, analysts say. And it will be increasingly difficult to dispose of the wastewater. Industry analysts say the basin will eventually run out of suitable places to drill disposal wells — another incentive for oil and gas operators to recycle.

At the same time, the constant flow of freshwater needed for fracking is ever harder to come by in this parched region, which lies in the Chihuahuan Desert and receives only about 13 inches of precipitation a year.

...

More than 95% of oil and gas leases issued on federal lands in New Mexico since 2017 were in areas of “extremely high” water stress, a 2019 report by the Center for American Progress found.

https://www.hcn.org/articles/water-theres-a-new-boom-in-the-permian-basin-wastewater
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kassy

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #228 on: February 14, 2020, 03:20:58 PM »
As groundwater depletes, arid American West is moving east

Loss of groundwater may accelerate drying trends in the eastern United States, according to research that applied supercomputing to create an in-depth model of how groundwater will respond to warming.

Even under modest climate warming scenarios, the continental United States faces a significant loss of groundwater -- about 119 million cubic meters, or roughly enough to fill Lake Powell four times or one quarter of Lake Erie, a first-of-its-kind study has shown.

The results, published today in Nature Communications, show that as warming temperatures shift the balance between water supply and demand, shallow groundwater storage can buffer plant water stress -- but only where shallow groundwater connections are present, and not indefinitely. As warming persists, that storage can be depleted -- at the expense of vital connections between surface water, such as rivers, streams and water reservoirs underground.

"Even with a 1.5 degrees Celsius warming case, we're likely to lose a lot of groundwater," said Reed Maxwell, professor of hydrology at the Colorado School of Mines, who co-authored the paper with Laura Condon of the University of Arizona and Adam Atchley of Los Alamos National Laboratory. "The East Coast could start looking like the West Coast from a water standpoint. That's going to be a real challenge."

for details see:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200213160051.htm

or the paper:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14688-0
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kassy

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #229 on: February 15, 2020, 11:35:19 AM »
Vital rainfall belt at risk from climate change

Our researchers have found that future climate warming could put a tropical rainfall belt relied upon by billions of people at risk

Working with scientists around the world, we’ve found that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could shrink as global temperatures increase.

Critical rainfall belt
The ITCZ is a critical rainfall belt found near the equator and the researchers believe that a change in its patterns caused by climate change could lead to droughts in the northern tropics.

They say that this could affect agriculture production and cause social unrest and mass migration from affected regions, including Central America and sub-Saharan Africa.

Tropical rainy season
Seasonal shifts in the ITCZ’s location control the beginning and length of the tropical rainy season, and in turn, the agricultural growing season.

The researchers reconstructed 1,600 years of rainfall using a stalagmite recovered from a cave in Belize, Central America, and compared this with existing rainfall data from other locations.

They found that the ITCZ expands in a cooler climate and contracts or shrinks as temperatures increase.

https://www.dur.ac.uk/news/newsitem/?itemno=41095

It is not possible to reconcile these very high-quality hydroclimate records from both sides of the equator by invoking meridional ITCZ shifts exclusively. If the LIA was characterized by a simple southward ITCZ shift, it should have led to drying in our study area, which is contrary to the observed shift to much wetter conditions. Our data, considered on their own, would suggest a northward shift of the ITCZ. All the seemingly contradictory cross-equatorial datasets are reconciled by invoking an alternative model whereby the ITCZ expands meridionally but weakens in the central equatorial core region during globally cold climates and contracts meridionally but strengthens in the core region during warm climates. This explanation is supported by recent modeling results (7) and modern rainfall data that reveal a narrowing of the Pacific ITCZ under modern warming (27).

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/7/eaax3644
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nanning

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #230 on: February 17, 2020, 10:51:01 AM »
Climate emergency.
A great and dramatic article/presentation with video about the state of Australian  potable water (almost a crisis):

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/feb/17/a-climate-emergency-what-happens-when-the-taps-run-dry

"The average annual inflow into Lake Burrendong is 1,450bn litres. In the 24 months up to October 2019, only 87bn litres reached the dam."


I think 100L per person per day is too much. I use less than 20L/day so it can be done.



Gone In A Generation

The continental United States is 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was a century ago. Seas at the coasts are nine inches higher. The damage is mounting from these fundamental changes, and Americans are affected by it. These are their stories.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/gone-in-a-generation/
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Prisons in your head!

sesyf

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #231 on: February 19, 2020, 05:23:44 PM »
I have read somewhere that a persons water consumption in official statistics includes also water used in food and stuff that the person buys or uses in some manner, so whatever we drink and use in food, washing etc is usually lot less than the totals in statistics... as I haven’t looked at thsi lately the statistics might include also the water that industries use, divided with state population.

kassy

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #232 on: February 21, 2020, 02:37:48 PM »
Dry February sends California back to drought: 'This hasn't happened in 150 years'

February is typically one of the wettest months in California, but the state is parched, and there’s no moisture in the forecasts

...

“This hasn’t happened in 150 years or more,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. “There have even been a couple wildfires – which is definitely not something you typically hear about in the middle of winter.”

...

The year began with snowpack at 90% of its historical average. But less than two dry, warm months later, it’s hanging in at just 52% of average.

“Those numbers are going to continue to go down,” said Swain. “I would guess that the 1 March number is going to be less than 50%.”

That snow isn’t just the basis for the mountain tourism industry in the winter – it serves as a significant source of water for California cities and agriculture come spring melt.

for details see
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/21/california-drought-february-rain-snow-pack-sierra
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gerontocrat

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #233 on: February 21, 2020, 04:43:02 PM »
I have read somewhere that a persons water consumption in official statistics includes also water used in food and stuff that the person buys or uses in some manner, so whatever we drink and use in food, washing etc is usually lot less than the totals in statistics... as I haven’t looked at thsi lately the statistics might include also the water that industries use, divided with state population.
There are many studies which try and show all water consumption by a country. E.g. a study suggested that only 38% of water used by the UK came from UK water resources. The rest is water used in producing the food and manufactured goods that we import.

BUT the official stats published by Governments, the UN and others refer to water withdrawn for use and where it goes, i.e. for agriculture, industry and domestic (including public services).

Worldwide, the proportions are 70% for agriculture, 19% for industry and 11% domestic, but vary wildly country by country dependent on climate and income per capita.

N.B. Water withdrawn is defines as water withdrawal is defined as
the quantity of freshwater taken from groundwater or surface water sources (such as lakes or rivers) for use in agricultural, industrial or domestic purposes.

Thus the agriculture figure of 70% does not include rain (& snow and even natural flooding), falling on planted agricultural land and pastures. The subject is far more complex than at first sight.

I have done the biz on this for water/sanitation projects in a good many countries - & even within countries the variations can be extreme, especially when looking at the water balance, i.e., withdrawals vs natural replenishment. e.g.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/20/colorado-river-flow-shrinks-climate-crisis
Colorado River flow shrinks from climate crisis, risking ‘severe water shortages’
Millions of people rely on the 1,450-mile waterway as increasing periods of drought and rising temperatures reduce flow of river
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #234 on: April 29, 2020, 09:20:04 AM »
US Drought Could Last A Century As We Now Enter A Megadrought, Study Finds
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2020/04/20/us-drought-could-last-a-century-as-we-now-enter-a-megadrought-study-finds/#4f7bcc902e00
Quote
In the past 1,200 years, the United States has experienced four megadroughts lasting decades to centuries. Now, it increasingly appears that we have already begun another megadrought.

A recent study argues that the drought conditions experienced in the western US since 2000 are the start of a megadrought equal to the worst the US has experienced in 1,200+ years.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #235 on: May 01, 2020, 11:58:59 AM »
Irrigators given subsidies under $4bn Murray-Darling scheme drew more water, study finds

A new study has found that the government’s $4bn Murray-Darling irrigation efficiency program, designed to make farms more efficient while returning some of the saved water to the environment has actually led to irrigators who received subsidies extracting more water than those who did not.

The study by academics from University of Adelaide, University of NSW, the Australian National University and the Environmental Defenders office found up to 28% more water was extracted by those who received subsidies.

It also found that the subsidies went mainly to corporate farming and that 51% of irrigators themselves were sceptical about whether the programs were working.

...

Efficiency programs – such as installing drip irrigation or lining dams – are funded under the Murray Darling Basin plan as a way of reclaiming water for the environment. The water savings achieved by the upgrades are meant to be shared between the farmer and the environment, as a win-win.

But this study argues that the schemes often amount to “robbing Peter to pay Paul” because they reduce flows into the environment that were occurring in the past through groundwater systems and are leading to greater water extractions by those who get the subsidies.

...

Now this report casts doubt about whether they are actually retrieving water at all.

“Combined with documented concerns around measurement of water and compliance, this raises serious doubts about the true extent to which environmental flows are increasing at a catchment and basin level, as a consequence of the subsidised upgrades,” the authors said.

etc

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/01/irrigators-given-subsidies-under-4bn-murray-darling-scheme-drew-more-water-study-finds
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The Walrus

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #236 on: May 01, 2020, 04:17:47 PM »
US Drought Could Last A Century As We Now Enter A Megadrought, Study Finds
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2020/04/20/us-drought-could-last-a-century-as-we-now-enter-a-megadrought-study-finds/#4f7bcc902e00
Quote
In the past 1,200 years, the United States has experienced four megadroughts lasting decades to centuries. Now, it increasingly appears that we have already begun another megadrought.

A recent study argues that the drought conditions experienced in the western US since 2000 are the start of a megadrought equal to the worst the US has experienced in 1,200+ years.

That is Forbes talking.  The paper, which has not been peer-reviewed yet, merely states that the current drought in the southwest may be the first mega-drought in 500 years, and the three previous mega-droughts in history were all worse than the current drought.

Bruce Steele

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #237 on: May 01, 2020, 04:43:37 PM »
Walrus, I know you don’t believe anything bad could possibly happen as CO2 rises and the earth warms. Drought isn’t just a lack of rainfall, it is also an effect of soil moisture declines as we get heating from GHG. So even if “ the three previous droughts were worse “ did those droughts also have concurrent earth temperature rises of 3-4 C ?  So what is drought and concurrent heating going to do over the next eighty years ?
 There are huge areas of piñon forest that have already succumbed in the southwest. Redwoods in the Sierra are dying and heatwaves that spike temperatures high enough can kill lots of wildlife in a single day. I have seen the damage . Mega droughts  can last decades , give it time and maybe this one will grow to best it’s rivals .

The Walrus

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #238 on: May 01, 2020, 05:08:55 PM »
Walrus, I know you don’t believe anything bad could possibly happen as CO2 rises and the earth warms. Drought isn’t just a lack of rainfall, it is also an effect of soil moisture declines as we get heating from GHG. So even if “ the three previous droughts were worse “ did those droughts also have concurrent earth temperature rises of 3-4 C ?  So what is drought and concurrent heating going to do over the next eighty years ?
 There are huge areas of piñon forest that have already succumbed in the southwest. Redwoods in the Sierra are dying and heatwaves that spike temperatures high enough can kill lots of wildlife in a single day. I have seen the damage . Mega droughts  can last decades , give it time and maybe this one will grow to best it’s rivals .

It is definitely possible.  I do not pretend to know the future, and this could turn into a mega-drought.   

Much of the soil moisture is due to irrigation, as the desert cities siphon off water that would otherwise replenish the soils. 

The problem with the redwoods, and other species, is not temperature and drought.  Rather the major issues plaguing them is a combination of overharvesting, fire, and clearing for construction.  There are more redwood trees now than prior to the westward expansion.  This is due to the fact that almost 95% of the old growth trees have been cut down.  The issue is not the climate; these trees have survived several mega-droughts.  Rather the issue is the people (or lack thereof) in charge of protecting the trees.  The same goes for wildlife.

It is not that I do not believe anything bad could happen.  I just do not believe that everything will be bad and that the low probability, worst possible outcomes are most likely.

Bruce Steele

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #239 on: May 01, 2020, 05:53:49 PM »
Walrus, My personal experience from living for a time in the Great Basin is that the piñon pines are not the same as they were in my youth.  Yes cattle grazing has its effects but those have been ongoing for  over a century. The piñons  aren’t harvested for timber . The soil moisture changes have far more to do with climate change than irrigation as regards pinions. Maybe the pinions aren’t charismatic like the redwoods but they have had a large role in human habitability of the desert Southwest for millennia .
 
https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/underlying-cause-massive-pinyon-pine-die-revealed

Yes I am a catastrophist . I have watched enough wildlife crashes and forest die-backs tied to either  drought , or heatwaves killing birds , or ocean heatwaves killing vast swaths of nearshore fish stocks .
I have seen enough to be afraid and I understand my powerlessness in the face of what is before us.
Wishing away or praying, or downplaying not only what has already happened but all the death on our doorstep isn’t going to make our problems resolve themselves. I will allow grief to harden my overly sensitive soul, I refuse to downplay death and will stare unblinking into the maw .

More redwoods now ? Maybe not.

“Populations of the state’s two redwood species — coast redwoods (Sequoia sempervirens) and giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum) — have already declined by 95 percent since 1850 due to logging and development. Now scientists want to know how climate change and drought will affect them in the near future.“
 
https://therevelator.org/redwoods-climate-change/

Walrus, you really have to try to quote sources, even crappy sources , or we will think you are just making things up. I am trying to figure how you think there are more redwoods. I have seen the clear cut redwood forests around Fort Bragg Calif. and they do replant young trees. Are you counting two foot saplings as replacements for the thousand year old giants they replace ? 
 
« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 07:40:40 PM by Bruce Steele »

The Walrus

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #240 on: May 01, 2020, 06:17:01 PM »
Walrus, My personal experience from living for a time in the Great Basin is that the pinions are not the same as they were in my youth.  Yes cattle grazing has its effects but those have been ongoing for  over a century. The pinions aren’t harvested for timber . The soil moisture changes have far more to do with climate change than irrigation as regards pinions. Maybe the pinions aren’t charismatic like the redwoods but they have had a large role in human habitability of the desert Southwest for millennia .
 
https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/underlying-cause-massive-pinyon-pine-die-revealed

Yes I am a catastrophist . I have watched enough wildlife crashes and forest die-backs tied to either  drought , or heatwaves killing birds , or ocean heatwaves killing vast swaths of nearshore fish stocks .
I have seen enough to be afraid and I understand my powerlessness in the face of what is before us.
Wishing away or praying, or downplaying not only what has already happened but all the death on our doorstep isn’t going to make our problems resolve themselves. I will allow grief to harden my overly sensitive soul, I refuse to downplay death and will stare unblinking into the maw .

More redwoods now ? Maybe not.

“Populations of the state’s two redwood species — coast redwoods (Sequoia sempervirens) and giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum) — have already declined by 95 percent since 1850 due to logging and development. Now scientists want to know how climate change and drought will affect them in the near future.“

I see we agree on the old growth redwood decline.  As I mentioned, the number has increased, but most of those are young (by comparison).  These redwoods were already old growth trees during the past megadroughts, so how they fare is uncertain. 

Most of the wildlife and forest destruction has been due to direct overharvesting or habitat destruction.  Pollution has played a role also.  As far as I can tell, climate has played a minor role recently.  In the past, this has been the major player, but we have a new player this time around.  Even if we were to get a complete control over climate change this century, it will have little impact on life on this planet, if we cannot control the major factors affecting them.  I think you may be downplaying the role we humans have actually had in what has already happened.

Bruce Steele

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #241 on: May 01, 2020, 08:31:20 PM »
Walrus, Please read the article I linked on the Pinyon pine die off in the Southwest US. It says there were more trees that died in the more recent drought than the one they had in the 1950s even though the drought in the 50s had less rainfall. The difference  is  that the more recent drought was hotter.
 We are headed into more heating, and when mega drought strikes it will come with hotter temperatures , less soil moisture and more habitat destruction. The heating is baked in for the near term and we can use science based observation to say heating will likely result in Pinyon declines.
 Did Cattle or irrigation projects have negative effects in the past , Yes but I think you underestimate environmental shifts. I can think of plenty of situations we’re humans have managed to repair habitat they had formerly impacted. The hardwood forests of Eastern North America have returned to areas formerly farmed ( tilled ) . The white tailed dear are in far larger numbers than a hundred years ago in the restored hardwood forests. The fish stocks on the West Coast of North America have in some cases returned( been managed )  to virgin biomass levels. That is we can manage ourselves successfully at local scales but the collective effect of our fossil fuel habits remain largely unregulated . We have waited so long to regulate our emissions that now the effects of that largess has entered geologic scales. The ocean is acidifying faster than at any time in the last 55 million years.  The earth will shift habitats at a rate man could never dream to match even in his most manipulative moments of history.
 So I believe humans have the ability to change for the better and the excesses of the past should be weighed against successes we have also had. That is we should learn from success as well as failure but man is not inherently bad. Collectively we have  made a large mistake with fossil fuels and I don’t know how to avoid the consequences of past actions and the resulting climate change but I am also quite certain that we can make the problem far worse.
 
 
 

The Walrus

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #242 on: May 01, 2020, 09:07:04 PM »
Bruce,
I read the article.  I do not question their work, as I know very little about pinyon pines.  Interestingly, the southwest is the only area in the U.S. that has experienced hotter summertime temperatures.  Apparently, this occurred during previous times in the middle ages.  Maybe this is one of those areas that will exceed the average.  The urbanization will not help to alleviate any temperature rise.

Yes, there are some success stories, and some areas have been repaired.  The U.S. has done a better job of this than the rest of the world, but that is not saying much.  Perhaps I am underestimating the potential climate change.  We still have a long way to go before we enter "geologic scales?"

Bruce Steele

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #243 on: May 01, 2020, 09:49:12 PM »
Geologic, Written in stone. When the Calif. Current ecosystem is undersaturated from bottom to surface year round there will be with it a change in species and volume of planktons that build their shells from calcium carbonate. The record of that change will be written in stone. In a million years you could go back and look at the layers of sediment from the current century and see the change. The calcium carbonate will thin and then disappear in areas of the worlds oceans that will represent an event unparalleled in 55 million years. So ya geologic in scale. We do not currently have bottom to surface undersaturation , it is only seasonal but it is arriving here within decades. Parsing decades when you are talking geologic scale is splitting hairs.

https://www.wired.com/2012/06/california-ocean-acidification/

Check out imbedded you tube on surface undersaturation.
 
« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 09:57:38 PM by Bruce Steele »

The Walrus

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #244 on: May 03, 2020, 03:47:56 PM »
Now we have sufficiently gone beyond the realm of this thread and into an area (marine biology) of which I claim no expertise.  Hence, I cannot comment intelligently with regards to your last post.

Bruce Steele

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #245 on: May 03, 2020, 05:17:35 PM »
Sorry yes off topic. The melt season is progressing and attention for the summer will turn there.
I try to maintain a little more discipline for summer posting here on ASIF . Winter blog traffic can get esoteric .

Alexander555

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #246 on: May 10, 2020, 02:04:11 PM »
Water restrictions in Belgium, never happened so early in the year before. And very little rain for the next 14 days. It's behind a paywall. https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/milieu-energie/verbod-om-water-op-te-pompen-komt-vroeger-dan-ooit/10226000.html

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #247 on: May 14, 2020, 01:24:06 AM »
2000-2010 Drought In Upper Missouri River Basin Driest In 1,200 Years
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-drought-upper-missouri-river.html

researchers were able to build a timeline for the basin that included changes to both temperature and rainfall. They were able to see that the drought over the years 2000 to 2010 was the driest that had occurred over the past 1,200 years—worse even than that which occurred during the dust bowl years.

They also found that the main driver of the draught was higher than normal temperatures that have been influencing streamflow by reducing runoff efficiency since at least the latter part of the 20th century.

They further note that higher average temperatures have also led to higher evapotranspiration in the river basin. They close their paper by issuing a warning for the future—they expect increasingly severe droughts and water deficits in the region in the coming years.

Justin T. Martin et al. Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States' largest river basin, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916208117
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The Walrus

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #248 on: May 14, 2020, 03:48:03 PM »
2000-2010 Drought In Upper Missouri River Basin Driest In 1,200 Years
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-drought-upper-missouri-river.html

researchers were able to build a timeline for the basin that included changes to both temperature and rainfall. They were able to see that the drought over the years 2000 to 2010 was the driest that had occurred over the past 1,200 years—worse even than that which occurred during the dust bowl years.

They also found that the main driver of the draught was higher than normal temperatures that have been influencing streamflow by reducing runoff efficiency since at least the latter part of the 20th century.

They further note that higher average temperatures have also led to higher evapotranspiration in the river basin. They close their paper by issuing a warning for the future—they expect increasingly severe droughts and water deficits in the region in the coming years.

Justin T. Martin et al. Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States' largest river basin, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916208117

The conclusions of the paper appear to have been twisted to fit the biases of the writer.  First, the paper "suggests that the widespread drought period of 2000 to 2010, termed the “turn-of-the-century drought” by Cook et al., was a period of observationally unprecedented and sustained hydrologic drought likely surpassing even the drought of the Dust Bowl period.  Evidence suggests that across much of the West atmospheric moisture demands due to warming are reducing the effectiveness of precipitation in generating streamflow and ultimately surface-water supplies."  There is nothing definite as claimed.

Unfortunately, they use northern hemisphere temperatures as their proxy, as opposed to North American.  The decreased runoff is due largely to the diminished snowpack.  Although, the impact of irrigation on stream flow is neglected.  There is no mention of rainfall changes anywhere in the paper.  In fact, their entire premise is based on increased evapotranspiration based on increased temperature.