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Author Topic: General Drought Stuff  (Read 72570 times)

sidd

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #200 on: November 29, 2018, 12:20:46 AM »
Sarhadi et al. find that hot and dry conditions are becoming more likely:

" anthropogenic climate forcing has doubled the joint probability of years that are  both warm and dry in the same location (relative to the 1961–1990 baseline)"

doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3487

open access. read all about it.

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bligh8

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #201 on: December 07, 2018, 03:56:44 PM »
Climate and the Global Famine of 1876–78

Abstract

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the “Monsoon Asia” region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870–76), a record-breaking El Niño (1877–78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations—one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SSTs—were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Niño in 1877–78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

." It was arguably the worst environmental disaster to ever befall humanity and one of the worst calamities of any sort in at least the last 150 years, with a loss of life comparable to the World Wars and the influenza epidemic of 1918/19.

"The Global Famine was initiated by severe droughts in several regions that persisted for multiple seasons between 1875 and 1878. In Fig. 1, we identify the temporal evolution of these regional droughts. The drought started in India with a failure of the 1875 winter monsoon season, and dry conditions persisted through the summer of 1877. In East Asia, the drought started in spring 1876, and the lack of rainfall persisted through summer 1878. Subsequently, droughts developed in parts of South Africa, northern Africa, and northeastern Brazil in following seasons that lasted till at least 1878. Relatively shorter but severe droughts also occurred in western Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia between mid-1877 and 1878. Droughts in most of these regions are often associated with the occurrence of El Niño events (e.g., Kumar et al. 2006; Slingo and Annamalai 2000; Ropelewski and Halpert 1987; Wang et al. 2017; Xu et al. 2004). While previous studies (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Aceituno et al. 2009) have identified the presence of a strong El Niño during the Great Drought, the El Niño conditions only developed in 1877 and waned in 1878. However, the drought in key areas afflicted by famines—including India, northeastern Brazil, and China—started prior to the development of the El Niño or lasted longer than its duration.


 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0159.1
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 08:10:10 PM by bligh8 »

SteveMDFP

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #202 on: December 07, 2018, 06:23:01 PM »
Climate and the Global Famine of 1876–78

Abstract

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, 

Thanks for this historical review.  A disturbing cautionary tale.  One wonders how well (or poorly) the global economic system would manage a similar crisis today.  We surely don't store enough food to manage such an event adequately.  Food prices, I imagine, would rise so high that only the affluent might avoid starvation.

sidd

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #203 on: December 07, 2018, 07:42:23 PM »
The effect of the drought in 1877-1879 is gruesomely documented by Mike Davis in "Late Victorian Holocausts"

When I was a very small child I recall meeting a survivor. He was very old then. He had survived as an infant through the generosity of a local prince who made sure that the children in his little fief had something to eat. The parents were not so fortunate and died in droves.

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wdmn

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #204 on: May 02, 2019, 01:05:53 AM »
Global Warming Was Already Fueling Droughts in Early 1900s, Study Shows


https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01052019/drought-climate-change-fingerprints-global-warming-20th-century-tree-rings-marvel-cook

Global warming has been fueling droughts since the early 20th Century, when soils started drying out at the same time across parts of North and Central America, Eurasia, Australia and the Mediterranean, new research shows.

The researchers say the surprising early-century findings provide the clearest signal yet that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are changing the hydroclimate in ways that can devastate agriculture, health and livelihoods.

...

"What we're seeing is very suggestive of a role for greenhouse gases, bigger than anything we've seen previously," Marvel said. "We're not arguing here that there is a really large effect. What we're saying is, we're picking out the underlying note against the background of a symphony. That note is faint but it's definitely there. And to find it, you need to look at long-term trends and wide areas."

Darvince

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #205 on: May 02, 2019, 11:44:16 AM »
I found the paper for anyone who is curious, since the article didn't seem to have any links:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1149-8

Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence
    Kate Marvel, Benjamin I. Cook, Céline J. W. Bonfils, Paul J. Durack, Jason E. Smerdon & A. Park Williams

Abstract
Although anthropogenic climate change is expected to have caused large shifts in temperature and rainfall, the detection of human influence on global drought has been complicated by large internal variability and the brevity of observational records. Here we address these challenges using reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index obtained with data from tree rings that span the past millennium. We show that three distinct periods are identifiable in climate models, observations and reconstructions during the twentieth century. In recent decades (1981 to present), the signal of greenhouse gas forcing is present but not yet detectable at high confidence. Observations and reconstructions differ significantly from an expected pattern of greenhouse gas forcing around mid-century (1950–1975), coinciding with a global increase in aerosol forcing. In the first half of the century (1900–1949), however, a signal of greenhouse-gas-forced change is robustly detectable. Multiple observational datasets and reconstructions using data from tree rings confirm that human activities were probably affecting the worldwide risk of droughts as early as the beginning of the twentieth century.


As I'm just posting the paper and haven't read it, my first impression is that I'm very surprised that the relatively small run-up of temperatures to ~0.3C above preindustrial may have been enough to kick off global warming impacts.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #206 on: May 02, 2019, 03:58:48 PM »
I recall reading somewhere, years ago, about a detectable anthropogenic effect on climate going back about 10,000 years [well, 8,000 years].  A quick internet search finds a 2011 Nature article that supports my memory.
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Sleepy

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #207 on: May 02, 2019, 04:41:54 PM »
Pmt started a topic in 2014, Early Anthropocene.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,852.0.html
There's a video lecture posted in Reply #90 with Ruddiman.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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vox_mundi

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #208 on: May 06, 2019, 01:41:43 AM »
Drought Affects Panama Canal Shipping 
https://learningenglish.voanews.com/amp/drought-affects-panama-canal-shipping/4900861.html

... Carlos Vargas is the vice president of environment and water for the Canal Authority. He said recently that Gatun — one of the largest artificial lakes in the world – was 1.4 meters below normal levels for this time of year. It has dropped more than 0.2 meters since early April. A smaller lake that also supplies the waterway, Alajuela, was 2.2 meters below usual.

“These low levels in the Panama Canal are the product of four or five months of almost zero precipitation,” Vargas told The Associated Press. “It really has been the driest dry season we’ve had in the history of the canal. The flow of rivers to the lake is down 60%.”

The Canal Authority had to restrict how deeply ships can reach below the surface. That means large ships, mainly from the United States and China, must pass through with less cargo.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #209 on: May 06, 2019, 02:41:45 AM »
Its the little things that will get us. The ones no one has even thought about.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #210 on: June 10, 2019, 07:39:27 PM »
"There is no water - why should people stay here"
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48552199
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nanning

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #211 on: June 10, 2019, 08:07:55 PM »
@Archimid
Quote
Its the little things that will get us. The ones no one has even thought about.
There are many 'little things'. I 'see' most trendlines come together in some 10 years. Of course I'm a 'doomer' and rightfully so.
What do people here think they are 'watching'? Almost everything goes from bad to worse. Year after year.
I'm poor (by choice) so I see in general society more changes than many others. Neo-liberalism, the dogma of the evil one, so to speak.
----------

Back on topic;
Crosspost from the "Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable"-thread:
----------
Potable water problems in South Africa:
http://news.trust.org/item/20190606044543-cbgji/

"With supplies scarce, fights over water are on the rise globally, with water think tank the Pacific Institute recording a surge in the number of related conflicts from about 16 in the 1990s to about 73 in just the past five years."

"Sometimes if you go to a nearby water source, other communities are standing guard at the water. They will beat you if you come near it," said Talent Zuma, 31, who is not related to the former president.

People say the next war will be over water, but here it feels like it has already begun."


more global water info from same source: https://packages.trust.org/running-dry/index.html
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vox_mundi

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #212 on: June 13, 2019, 05:30:53 PM »
South Australia's Droughts are Getting Worse
https://www.unisa.edu.au/Media-Centre/Releases/2019/south-australias-droughts-are-getting-worse/

Despite Adelaide experiencing its wettest day in more than two years this month, a new study by UniSA shows droughts are becoming longer and more severe in South Australia.

The analysis shows a clear pattern of increasing drought across much of South Australia, notably over the State's most heavily inhabited areas and major catchments.

"We looked at data from 1960 to 2010 from every high-quality weather station in the State and there is a clear pattern, with drought increasing in the south of the State and over the Murray-Darling Basin, which is the food bowl of Australia," Prof Beecham says.

The study, published in a Royal Meteorological Society journal, also indicates there has been significant long-term reductions in rainfall at the most problematic time of year, which is through autumn and winter.

"This is when water systems should be recharging and flows should be building up again," Prof Beecham says. "When it is dry during this time, as it was earlier this year, it is a problem for the State's water supplies, as winter rain is soaked up by the dry environment and less ends up in reservoirs."

... "Much of the drought intensification can be linked to changes in two key climatic indices, known as Niño 3.4 and the dipole mode index," Prof Beecham says.

"As a result of changes to temperature and pressure over the Indian and Pacific oceans, South Australia's rainfall patterns are changing."


M. Rashid, S. Beekham, Characterization of meteorological droughts across South Australia, Royal Meteorological Society Journal, 03 February 2019
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 06:56:20 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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kassy

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #214 on: June 16, 2019, 05:25:59 PM »
Namibia is selling a 1000 wild animals (grazers like buffalo, impalas etc) to safe them from death by starvation. The drought is the deadliest in 90 years for animals. Last year 64k died. 

https://www.nu.nl/dieren/5938662/namibie-verkoopt-duizend-wilde-dieren-vanwege-noodtoestand.html

Most of those death were probably october, november and december which is the time the rains return to the country but they did not return last year according to a newspaper article.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 12:27:49 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #216 on: August 09, 2019, 02:05:14 AM »
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DrTskoul

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #217 on: August 09, 2019, 02:05:58 AM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #218 on: August 09, 2019, 04:11:46 AM »
Germany faces increasing water shortage:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-facing-risk-of-increased-water-shortages/a-49937042

That is surprising...

Going to be a lot of surprises and wealthy NH countries are going to discover the hard way they are not immune.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #219 on: August 17, 2019, 07:58:17 PM »
https://www.upr.org/post/climate-change-and-land-what-un-science-report-means-utah-s-public-lands
Approximately 75% of Utah is public land, and as Petterson noted one of the increasingly urgent threats for its environment is water scarcity.  Though the report does not make any specific policy recommendations to governments, he believes better forest management practices would help support the state’s water needs.  Additionally, he mentioned other policies backed by the IPCC report to better manage lands and combat climate change, including more sustainable farming and increased urban canopies.

https://nypost.com/2019/08/15/wet-winter-doesnt-end-climate-change-risk-to-colorado-river/
Wet winter doesn’t end climate change risk to Colorado River
FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. — Snow swamped mountains across the US West last winter, leaving enough to thrill skiers into the summer, swelling rivers and streams when it melted, and largely making wildfire restrictions unnecessary. But the wet weather can be misleading.
Climate change means the region is still getting drier and hotter.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2019/08/15/colorado-river-water-drought-arizona-nevada-mexico-first-ever-reductions/2021147001/
Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will be required to take less water from the Colorado River for the first time next year under a set of agreements that aim to keep enough water in Lake Mead to reduce the risk of a crash.
The federal Bureau of Reclamation activated the mandatory reductions in water deliveries on Thursday when it released projections showing that as of Jan. 1, the level of Lake Mead will sit just below a threshold that triggers the cuts.



« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 08:49:27 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #220 on: August 21, 2019, 12:34:31 AM »
The Ladakh region of northern India is one of the world’s highest, driest inhabited places. For centuries, meltwater from winter snows in the Himalayan mountains sustained the tiny villages dotting this remote land.
Now, like many other places in India, parts of Ladakh are running short of water.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-cant-waste-a-drop-india-is-running-out-of-water-11566224878
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philopek

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #221 on: August 21, 2019, 01:11:17 AM »
Germany faces increasing water shortage:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-facing-risk-of-increased-water-shortages/a-49937042

That is surprising...

Going to be a lot of surprises and wealthy NH countries are going to discover the hard way they are not immune.

While it's correct that no place is immune the current news about water shortage in Germany is nothing else than panicmongering and filling the summer-news-hole.

If anything and most probably not even that, few regions will have to build new connections to regions with abundant water supply and lose some autonomy in the process.

Also not probably but at least possible is that some regions will not be able to continue their insane level of water WASTE, means, carelessly using water without wasting a thought.

This is a typical NEWS-Hyped headline seeking news with the sole purpose to make money and fill the newspaper.

Following the news we see an intermittent change of content, one week they complain about possible drought, one week later the same news-channels and papers hype floodings and thunderstorms, then they hype a great sunny summer, only to turn back to lack of rain two weeks after their latest flood, rain and thunderstorms hype.

Not even worth to pay attention to, that part of Europe won't suffer from water shortage for a long time to come, probably never due to the geographic location.

So, being surprise is totally justified and the correct reaction based on common knowledge about water abundance in that region of the world and huge "reserves" too.

People living in places where is very little or no water at all must feel buggered about

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #222 on: September 21, 2019, 01:16:06 AM »
Dry Rivers Offer a Preview of Climate Change
https://eos.org/articles/dry-rivers-offer-a-preview-of-climate-change
Quote
In areas of New Zealand that are undergoing drying trends, many rivers that are currently perennial will become intermittent. Summer low flows are already trending downward in some perennial rivers and will eventually reach zero. Alteration of flows in these rivers by storing and returning irrigation water may modify these trends, but they are inevitably downward in drying areas.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #223 on: September 24, 2019, 10:24:07 PM »
Communities in Ethiopia's Somali Region face chronic drought linked to climate change
https://www.dw.com/en/communities-in-ethiopias-somali-region-face-chronic-drought-linked-to-climate-change/a-50551806
Quote
The Somali Region has suffered from chronic drought for several years, with the worst stretch recorded in 2016, from which many households have yet to recover. This year the short rainy season known as the 'belg', which typically lasts from March to May, once again failed to provide much-anticipated ground water. The livestock have already started to die.
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vox_mundi

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Re: General Drought Stuff
« Reply #224 on: October 02, 2019, 11:53:28 PM »
Groundwater Pumping Will 'Devastate' River Systems
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-groundwater-devastate-river.html

Rampant and unsustainable extraction of groundwater reserves crucial for food production will "critically impact" rivers, lakes and wetlands in half of Earth's drainage basins by mid-century, researchers warned Wednesday



... Researchers found that in around 20 percent of drainage basins the tipping point had already been reached where extraction outpaced streamflow.

They also used climate change models to predict how streamflow will diminish in future and found that between 42 and 79 percent of the world's groundwater sites will be unable to sustain aquatic ecosystems by 2050.


Quote
... "It's pretty clear that if there's no water in your stream anymore then your fish and plants are going to die," ... "About half of irrigated crops rely on groundwater. That's a lot (to lose)."

The study, published in Nature, said regions heavily reliant on groundwater for crop production, including Mexico and the Ganges and Indus basins, were already experiencing declining river and stream flows due to overextraction.

And as the demand for groundwater increases, areas of Africa and southern Europe will also see severe water disruption in the decades to come, the team predicted.



British researchers this year warned that future generations faced a groundwater "time bomb" as underground systems would take decades to replenish.

Inge E. M. de Graaf et al. Environmental flow limits to global groundwater pumping, Nature (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late