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RaenorShine

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Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: May 04, 2014, 12:02:11 PM »
As we are now in March I thought I'd start us a Greenland Melt Thread for what will be another interesting season.  I've listed a couple of resources below I followed last year.  Any other suggestions greatly received!

NSIDC have put up the first picture of the season (for May 1) after their calibration http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/, and also reanalyzed the year to date, with a small blip in surface melt already in late April.

Meanwhile, DMI http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/ is showing melting in the SW of Greenland. The overall surface mass balance on their site is following the average growth.  DMI also have a good record of satellite images around the edge of Greenland. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kangerlussuaq.uk.php

Polar portal http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland-ice-shelf/nbsp/total-mass-change/ have not yet started plotting for 2014 for total mass change, but this year could be interesting to say the least.  Even with the cold year in 2013, the total mass loss was still above the average since 2000.

Yuha

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2014, 12:48:00 PM »
In West Greenland the melt is already visible in MODIS images:

Neven

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2014, 09:06:21 PM »
Cool, thanks for opening this thread, RaenorShine!
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icefest

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2014, 12:17:52 AM »
From Yuha's image it looks like much of the melt so far is occurring closer to the ice sheet and the coast; this fits in with katabatic prevailing winds.
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RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2014, 10:39:56 PM »
No problem Neven.

The past few days have seen continued melt in the SW of Greenland on DMI. They do not have an updated image today - but polar portal does (it uses the same data as DMI for surface melt.

NSIDC have also shown surface melt in the SW, but also shows it in the SE where DMI show the ice growing. As I understand, this is due to the different methods used. NSIDC use satellite data to look for melt, but DMI use weather data including the refreezing of saltwater. The SE of Greenland has been having rain showers recently causing surface melt which is picked up by the NSIDC satellites, but DMI calculates this will refreeze causing net mass gain in the SE.

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2014, 12:26:34 PM »
The past week has been quiet on the melt front with, NSIDC showing below average surface melt.

DMI has been showing some melt, but the big feature has been the lack of rain/snow adding to the surface mass balance. This has led to very little mass gain in May so far, which would normally still be increasing (Melt season begins in June according to the DMI averages).   This is very much still 'weather' rather than a large event though.

Several of Wunderground's forecasts for the next week around Greenland show temperatures increasing so we'll see what the next week brings.

CraigsIsland

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2014, 08:00:18 PM »
Not sure of this resource has been mentioned but here it is:

http://polarportal.org/en/greenland-ice-shelf/nbsp/surface-conditions

Frivolousz21

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2014, 06:53:27 AM »
The SE part of GIS is about to get totally smoked.
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RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2014, 10:51:54 AM »
Yes, the next couple of days could be interesting.

DMI Surface Mass Balance (http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/) is showing slight surface melt over 100km inland for yesterday along that stretch of coast, with higher values along the coast. NSIDC is not showing anything significant yet, but yesterdays image will be uploaded later in the day.

The will also melt a lot of the snow around the edge of Greenland which will prime greater melt later in the season. The webcams around Kulusuk/Tasiilaq on the E coast http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=65.58000183,-37.15000153&sp=BGKK show blue skies and snow melt. Temperature is 2C

icefest

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2014, 11:55:24 AM »
Those webcams are showing 4°C already, and it's not even 8am yet. Today will be a scorcher. 
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2014, 08:22:02 PM »
I have remarked that a hard rain's gonna fall on Greenland. Neff(2014) doi: 10.1002/2014JD021470 detail an atmospheric river to Greenland triggering the great darkening of 2012. I have interspersed ascat image from fig 3 in the paper. More ascat images may be found at

http://membrane.com/sidd/fireice/albedo.html

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2014, 06:17:19 AM »
Current projections of future sea level rise are too low

Greenland Glaciers More Susceptible to Melt Than Thought

Quote
...new Greenland findings, detailed online May 18 in the journal Nature Geoscience, come on the heels of an announcement by the same group of researchers at the University of California, Irvine, that some of the largest and fastest-moving glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have entered a phase of “unstoppable” collapse. The mechanisms driving the melt are different for the two ice sheets, though.

Unlike the Antarctic glaciers, which end in tongues of ice that float on the Southern Ocean seas, the glaciers of Greenland terminate with the land, butting up against the surrounding water. So instead of warm water melting the glaciers from below, as in Antarctica, the ocean waters melt the vertical fronts of Greenland’s glaciers. Scientists had thought that the melt of the Greenland glaciers would continue for a few decades, until the ice melted back to a point where the ground was higher than sea level and then would halt.

But the new study, which resulted in the most detailed topographic map of the periphery of Greenland to date, found that wasn’t the case: Valleys underlying many of the glaciers stay below sea level and extend much farther inland than previously suggested, so warm ocean currents that have migrated northward with the changing climate could eat away at the ice for much longer than current climate models suggest.

“It will take much longer for these glaciers to lose contact with the ocean,” study author Mathieu Morlighem, of the University of California, Irvine, told Climate Central...

 sea levels, which have already jumped 7.5 inches since the beginning of the 20th century, could rise by anywhere from 1 to 13 feet by 2100

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/greenland-glaciers-melt-sea-level-rise-17457
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2014, 06:37:16 AM »
Quote
from 1 to 13 feet by 2100

This must be a typo, since it refers to the IPCC-projection, which is 1 to 3 feet by 2100, not 13 feet.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2014, 06:53:32 AM »
13 feet does sound much too high, 3.96m is even more than ASLR would result in.
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2014, 10:18:12 AM »
NSIDC failed to show any of the melt shown on DMI for 17/5

DMI for yesterday shows very high (25mm+ water equivalent surface melt) on the edges of the southern Greenland ice sheet. This is offset on the main graph by snow on the west of Greenland. We'll have to see how NSIDC finds this later today.

Stephen

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2014, 02:14:02 PM »
Current projections of future sea level rise are too low

Greenland Glaciers More Susceptible to Melt Than Thought

[......

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/greenland-glaciers-melt-sea-level-rise-17457

Previous estimates were based on sea levels which in turn were analysed to estimate the finger print effect and in turn the GIS mass.  I haven't read the full paper but they don't seem to consider sea levels at neighbouring coastlines.
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RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2014, 07:28:38 PM »
The second large spike of the season on NSIDC http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/ is showing for yesterday, with around 10% of the ice sheet showing melt ( All in the south ).

Interestingly this is showing more on the SW side than in the SE that DMI have been showing Surface Mass loss on.  My guess is that a lot of the precipitation on the west must have been falling as rain causing surface melt.

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2014, 09:56:32 AM »
Just been looking at DMI this morning and the DMI are now showing only melt around the coastline.

What is interesting is that this is the second image they put up for today ( I checked earlier in the morning. Polar portal http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland-ice-shelf/nbsp/surface-conditions/ (which usually shows the same image) shows the original for today with extensive melt across the southern peninsula.

DMI has had an issue with the 'Map of the accumulated surface mass balance (in mm water equivalent) from September 1st to now.' for a couple of days and this has now been fixed.

I've dropped a tweet to @greenlandicesmb about a potential recalibration.

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2014, 10:59:11 AM »
Had a reply from @greenlandicesmb and there has been a model update in how they treat the melt water.  A larger proportion is now being shown as refreeze.

Polar Portal has now been updated to the same model, here is a fuller explanation.

Quote
The model has been updated in 2014 and now gives a better picture of what happens with the meltwater. Earlier a large amount of the meltwater was treated as loss in the form of runoff from the ice sheet. The new model is better at taking into account the part of the meltwater that refreezes on its way to the coast, and this then remains a part of the ice sheet. This update means that the new maps, values and curves will deviate from the previous ones which appear, for instance, in the 2013 Season Report. Everything shown on this site, however, is calculated with this new model, so that all curves and values are comparable.   

Another surprise is that they have revamped the Surface Mass Balance graph pages on Polar Portal (new URL http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/). These include

  • The ability to view older daily images
  • A new accumulated image (which can also view older versions) which clearly shows the recent changes in precipitation and melt (more precipitation in SE, snow drought and melt in the NW) this year.
  • A new Albedo Anomaly map (again with history) showing the 'Dark Snow' Changes

They've also recently added a new weather page http://polarportal.dk/en/weather/ (again with history) which provides temurature, wind and precipitation anomaly maps for the arctic.

The new polar Portal Site is looking like essential viewing for us Greenland watchers!
« Last Edit: May 20, 2014, 11:14:18 AM by RaenorShine »

Frivolousz21

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2014, 07:14:00 AM »
Looking at the modeled low level temps I can't see how any melting below 2000 meters over SE GIS could have refroze the last 2-3 days.

I also have a hard time believing in 2012 that 500km3 of ice mass loss was from calving.

If GIS only puked 200km3 of melt loss in 2012 the sea level rise threat is way over blown. 
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2014, 07:18:36 AM »
The GFS says there is no way anywhere below 2000m could have refroze the last few days over SE GIS.

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portalen

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2014, 09:18:49 AM »
I would like to leave a small comment on the new SMB estimates we are posting on polarportal (the same as the DMI smb product).
We are currently preparing a paper (probably to be submitted to Geoscientific Model Development this summer, I will put a notification in here when we do submit it as this is an open acces journal and anyone can leave review comments) which describes the model in detail.

However for now note that the surface air temperatures are not very relevant for calculating the refreezing and retention of liquid water in the snow pack. It's quite a complex phenomenon to model, made worse by the fact there are hardly any measurements to validate against! What is more important are the snow pack properties, in particular, the temperature, grain size, air pore spaces and any existing liquid content in the snow pack. As these are very much micro-scale processes they have to be parameterised using reasonably well known equations. It is also important to "spin-up" the snow pack since previous years are really important for determining these properties.
What the new model means is that melt occurring in the early part of the season is retained but as the snowpack gets warmer and saturated with water later in the season this meltwater is released and runs off to the oceans so we see a change in the peak timing of melt runoff as well as a reduction in the total.

The model is of course contiuously in development and I expect another update later this year which may again change the actual results. Note that each time the model is updated we run the entire period again, which is a fairly expensive business, so that all graphs and curves are consistent.

I hope this helps with interpreting the SMB maps.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2014, 12:23:09 PM by portalen »

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2014, 10:04:28 AM »
For the 19th NSIDC showed a similar melt pattern to the 18th, which only a small uptick on the graph, still around 10% of the sheet showed melt.

DMI seem to be having a few teething problems with the new site and model at the moment (doesn't any new site) so I'll write an update later.

Friv, the DMI Surface Mass Balance is a model based on current weather. Its not going to be right all the time (just as PIOMAS isn't).  What they will have been doing is using the data they have got (Weather Stations to measure precipitation, River Flow Measurements, Glacier Flow Measurements, GRACE measurements) to validate the model and tweak it so it approximates the actual value over the year.

The new model counts less of the melt as runoff because it is still on or in the icesheet. It may not have refrozen yet, but there is the potential for it to do so. 

Even in 2012 the Surface Mass Balance of Greenland was positive, not negative as you imply (i.e. more mass was deposited on the surface than lost through melt). This needs to be the case unless a sheet is in freefall as this is the only input to the system (glaciers cannot add mass only remove it). SMB was 300Gt less than the average though for the year, and that is a lot of ice not gained.

Recently there is more melt than previously even on more normal years (2013). For SMB at least, Greenland seems to be following the Arctic in having normal freezing seasons followed by exceptional melting seasons.

Measured sea level rise is still only rising at 3mm a year on average, and the majority of that is coming from thermal expansion, not the ice sheets (although the totals attributed to them are rising), the problem comes if this flow keeps on increasing exponentially, or there is a catastrophic collapse (WAIS). 

Frivolousz21

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2014, 01:21:20 PM »
Thanks for the explanation guys.



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RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #24 on: May 21, 2014, 03:25:12 PM »
Thanks portalen for the information that's a lot more coherent than my ramblings!

The gremlins seem to have been sorted in the images now at polar portal. Yesterday's SMB returned to zero (or just below). The images show an increase in melt along the east coast, and also a reduction in precipitation in the west compared to the day before. 


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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #25 on: May 21, 2014, 08:27:08 PM »
RE: GIS  ice loss.

is now predominantly due to SMB, See Enderlin(2014) http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059010

Re: SLR

Thermal expansion contribution  is about the same ag that from grounded ice melt

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #26 on: May 21, 2014, 09:23:53 PM »
Sidd, thanks for the link to the paper and the correction on the thermal expansion contribution.

For those interested in this the IPCC AR5 has a table breaking down the contributions in section 13.3 http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #27 on: May 22, 2014, 09:44:08 AM »
NSIDC measured surface melt continued to climb for the 3rd day running on 20/5.

DMI showed more precipitation for the 21st, the map and graph looking similar to the 19th, with around a 2Gt daily gain in SMB. The accumulated SMB is running slightly below 2012 still though, and we are yet to hit the melt cliff.


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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #28 on: May 23, 2014, 10:11:50 AM »
NSIDC measured surface melt fell on 21/5 back down to the 18/5 value.

DMI showed less precipitation for the 22nd, mainly limited to the southern peninsula where a low passed over.  The heavy SMB loss around the southern edges of the ice sheet has also disappeared as temperatures have fallen slightly. Overall this has led to around a 1Gt daily gain in SMB for the full ice sheet.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #29 on: May 24, 2014, 10:33:00 PM »
DMI showed a similar amount of SMB gain on the 23rd of around 1Gt.  The precipitation has move NE, leaving the southern tip with some melt on the edges of the sheet.

NSIDC melt area fell on both 22nd and 23rd. For the 23rd the value sits below the mean melt for the time year, the first time in 5 days we hav been below average.

NSIDC have also published the first of their periodic analysis of the Greenland melt season.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2014/05/last-year-in-review-this-years-melt-begins/

This is mainly a review of the 2013 season, showing that it was still above average against the 1978-2013 average, it has been the quietest season for a couple of years.

They also preview some changes they are hoping to make to the Greenland today page in the future.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #30 on: May 26, 2014, 01:32:29 AM »
Quote
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in August warned of a three-foot sea level rise by 2100. But with new insight into melting glaciers in West Antarctica, that increase must be revised to at least seven feet

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/18/greenland-ice-melt.html

And that's not counting the increase in Greenland ice melt over previous projections discussed in the article--so add another couple feet, at least, from that source, and you get...


at least 9 feet (3+ meters) of sea level rise by the end of the century.


Most of that will come in the second half of the century, but I would think we could expect a meter by mid-century, 2050, and a half meter well before that, in about 20 years, say 2035.

On that last point, keep in mind that a half meter sea level rise increases probability of coastal flooding be 100 to 1000 times.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/12/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-melting_n_5310679.html
(toward the end of the video)

If you have ocean side property, sell it soon. In spite of recent legislative shenanigans, it will not be possible to get any kind of insurance on those properties, government or otherwise, in a very few months to years. And after that, they will be washing away at record rates.
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #31 on: May 26, 2014, 02:06:09 AM »
South Florida is toast with a 2 meter rise in sea level. Salt water intrusion will wipe out fresh water supplies.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #32 on: May 26, 2014, 10:11:25 AM »
NSIDC have a very similar melt pattern for the second day running on 24/5 with melt showing on the west coast.

On the 25th, DMI have the precipitation moving slowly up the east coast, but the overall pattern is similar to the 24th with a slight increase in gain.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #33 on: May 27, 2014, 10:07:30 AM »
NSIDC shows only very slight melt on the west coast on 25/5, the third day running below average.

DMI shows the precipitation lessening on the 26th, with the melt around the edges of the sheet cancelling out the gain, giving a SMB of zero.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #34 on: May 27, 2014, 11:16:12 AM »
Quote
from 1 to 13 feet by 2100

This must be a typo, since it refers to the IPCC-projection, which is 1 to 3 feet by 2100, not 13 feet.
Take a look at this paper http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf
I also remember an interview a couple years ago with an Antarctica glaciologist who when asked about worst case scenarios had no problem with 3-4 meters (I believe), based on what he knew then. Things have not gotten an better since.
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #35 on: May 27, 2014, 01:59:59 PM »
LRC1962,

The full quote from the Climate Central article reads:
"...the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That report estimated that sea levels, which have already jumped 7.5 inches since the beginning of the 20th century, could rise by anywhere from 1 to 13 feet by 2100, an increase from the previous report released in 2007."

So it refers to the IPCC-report, which does not say 13 feet by 2100, but 3 feet (with a 17% chance of more than 3 feet, under BAU).

This is not to deny that some experts do indeed believe 13 feet by 2100 to be a worst-case possibility.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #36 on: May 27, 2014, 02:10:30 PM »
Quote
from 1 to 13 feet by 2100

This must be a typo, since it refers to the IPCC-projection, which is 1 to 3 feet by 2100, not 13 feet.
Take a look at this paper http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf
I also remember an interview a couple years ago with an Antarctica glaciologist who when asked about worst case scenarios had no problem with 3-4 meters (I believe), based on what he knew then. Things have not gotten an better since.

Good read. I am absolutely of the opinion that ice mass loss is a nonlinear process as  Hansen suggests and we are looking at a multimeter sea level rise this century.

RaenorShine

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #37 on: May 27, 2014, 05:58:16 PM »
A couple of interviews I've found :

Dr Jason Box on new Greenland Glacier Bottom Maps
http://climatecrocks.com/2014/05/27/greenland-dark-snow-project-now-more-important-than-ever/

Dr Richard Alley on the latest Antarctic and Greenland Studies
https://soundcloud.com/inquiringminds/35-richard-alley-west-antarctica-is-melting-and-we-cant-stop-it

Both well worth a listen.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #38 on: May 27, 2014, 06:10:41 PM »
Thanks for these links, RS. I may repost the RA interview link on another thread where it will be particularly relevant to the debate going on there. The actual interview starts just after the 16 minute mark.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #39 on: May 27, 2014, 07:53:12 PM »
Wili, No problem at all, I'd have cross posted also but was in a rush. Most of the Richard Alley analogies are nothing new (I've heard him speak on WAIS collapse several times), but he seems to be becoming more certain things are heading for the worse, including Greenland, which he's been dismissive of for rapid change in the past ( - around 30 mins)

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #40 on: May 28, 2014, 11:14:11 AM »
NSIDC shows an uptick in melt around around the coasts for 26/5, still below the long term average for the day though.

DMI shows a slight increase in precipitation for 27/5 along the east coast. It also shows melt increasing elsewhere. Overall there is an uptick in SMB to around a 0.5Gt gain.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #41 on: May 29, 2014, 07:53:11 PM »
NSIDC Surface melt percentage was below average for the last two days (27/5 & 28/5)

DMI showed the precipitation on the east coast slipping away, with the light melt continuing around the coasts.  This has led to a slight negative SMB on 28/5.  The total SMB from September 1 to now is noticeably less than 2011-12 thanks to a dry May. 

One final note, NSIDC have added a link on their page to SAGE (Services for the Analysis of the Greenland Environment) http://nsidc.org/data/sage/index.action this is an interactive tool for exploring the following datasets :

NSIDC-0032  DMSP SSM/I Pathfinder Daily EASE-Grid Brightness Temperatures
NSIDC-0066  AVHRR Polar Pathfinder Twice-Daily 5 km EASE-Grid Composites
NSIDC-0218  Greenland Ice Sheet Melt Characteristics Derived from Passive Microwave Data
NSIDC-0301  AMSR-E/Aqua Daily EASE-Grid Brightness Temperatures
NSIDC-0305  GLAS/ICESat 1 km Laser Altimetry Digital Elevation Model of Greenland
NSIDC-0342  Near-Real-Time DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Pathfinder Daily EASE-Grid Brightness Temperatures
MOD11A2     MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature & Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1 km SIN Grid V005

I've had a quick look but using the raw data interpreted into the NSIDC Greenland Melt maps and statistics is slightly beyond my quick tinkering to get anything useful.  The way you can narrow searches by melt basin and time could be of use to some though.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #42 on: May 30, 2014, 08:07:24 PM »
NSIDC melt area for 29/5 is increasing, but is still below average.

DMI shows greater melt, but also greater precipitation, both cancelling each other out to leave the net SMB almost unchanged.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #43 on: May 31, 2014, 06:02:19 PM »
melt area is about to shoot above average and stay there a bit.
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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #44 on: June 01, 2014, 12:49:57 AM »
It's certainly on the way up again already Friv.

NSIDC has a large area of melt on the north coast for 30/5, increasing the melt area again (but still trending just below average)

DMI shows the greatest daily SMB loss of the year so far of around 1Gt.  With very little precipitation, but a large area of loss across the south of Greenland.

I'm not sure on the area of melt in the north on NSIDC and why its not showing on the DMI models. Maybe its just surface melt that is refreezing under the new model.

Slight loss due to sublimation across large areas sometimes shows on the DMI model but is not picked up by the NSIDC measurements. This is my understanding of the current differences in the south.


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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #45 on: June 01, 2014, 06:52:42 PM »
NSIDC melt area for 31/5 is almost unchanged from the 30/5 map at around 5% of the total area.

DMI shows the daily SMB on 31/5 has returned to almost zero.  Precipitation shows in the south and north west, with more melt along the east coast.  The sublimation across the south has disappeared.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #46 on: June 01, 2014, 07:53:52 PM »
It's going to keep picking up as the NAO tanks again.

The snow/ice albedo feedback will enhance warming over the next 10 days as the dirty ice layer opens up.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #47 on: June 02, 2014, 08:15:32 PM »
NSIDC shows melt area continuing to climb to around the average value for 1/6.  The map showing melt around the whole of Greenland, but especially on the west coast and northern tip.

DMI shows a very similar pattern to yesterday, with a slight dip in SMB balance.

The webcams around Kulusuk about half way up the east coast show that the melt is well underway.  Temuratures are 8C, the snow has melted on exposed surfaces around Sea Level, with snow remaining in shadows/dells.  http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=65.58000183,-37.15000153&sp=BGKK

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #48 on: June 03, 2014, 07:18:47 PM »
NSIDC melt area continued it's climb on 2/6 and is now at about the seasonal average.  Patchy melt is showing around the whole edge of the sheet.

DMI also shows and increase in melt, with SMB setting another daily record loss for the year of over 1Gt.  Its still got a long way to go until the peak melt season though so these records are going to be regularly broken.

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Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« Reply #49 on: June 04, 2014, 10:03:35 PM »
Melt area is now well above normal and will likely go much higher and stay above normal for the foreseeable future.


I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow