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magnamentis

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #250 on: January 13, 2019, 07:06:55 PM »
since i once played soccer in wintery moscow with some russian office clerks i think that even they would outclass any average soldier in the western hemisphere, not even talking about the toughness of those guys who live east of the Ural.

however since my first wife was russian and i know plenty of them very well my respect reached a very high level and not only when it comes to physical strenght, rarely seen so many extra smart guys among average citizens in one place and then since that time i stopped playing chess after getting aware how mediocre most of us play ;) not kidding, i considered myself a decent player once until i played up there during a few years.

similar things apply to chinese people and i think our western condescending approach towards other great countries will more sooner than later drop on our toes.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #251 on: January 13, 2019, 07:35:25 PM »
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.

Trump is merely continuing a very long-term trend. The USA has relied on deterrence through air and missile defence systems capability and has neglected surface capability since WW2.

After a period of neglect for a number of years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia now seeks to dominate the Arctic Ocean both militarily and economically- a policy restarted by Putin and very recently partly bankrolled by China.

The results can be seen in the ice-breaker fleets - compare Russia and the USA (+ some other countries) in the charts below.
Full list at https://www.dco.uscg.mil/Portals/9/DCO%20Documents/Office%20of%20Waterways%20and%20Ocean%20Policy/20170501%20major%20icebreaker%20chart.pdf?ver=2017-06-08-091723-907
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #252 on: January 14, 2019, 01:42:27 AM »
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.

I believe Trump is an asset of supranational occult powers.

There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

vox_mundi

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #253 on: January 30, 2019, 07:20:01 PM »
Ignore the surface ships, subs own the Arctic ...

As The Arctic Warms, US Navy Considering Summer Transit, Bering Sea Port
https://www.defenseone.com/news/2019/01/arctic-warms-us-navy-considering-summer-transit-bering-sea-port/154018/



... The Arctic is heating up and changing twice as fast as the rest of the globe. Some anticipate that it could regularly be virtually ice-free in summer  by 2040. That reality, coupled with Russia’s aggressiveness, is forcing the Navy to look at its ability to operate in there with thawed eyes. “You’re seeing the discussion change dramatically,” said Spencer. “We had the Navy’s [Arctic] Roadmap. We are adjusting that…and there’s more to come.

The Navy is meeting its current requirements for Arctic ops, according to GAO reports, but Spencer said that it was time to look beyond those. He said the U.S. is exploring the possibility of opening a strategic port in the Bering Strait.

------------------------------

US Navy Plans To Send More Ships Into The Arctic As It Looks To Establish New Polar Port
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/25875/us-navy-plans-to-send-more-ships-into-the-arctic-as-it-looks-to-establish-new-polar-port

... “A strategic port up in the Bering [Sea] area is being explored, but that would be a whole-of-government approach: that would be Coast Guard, Navy and [Department of] Commerce in that regard,” Spencer explained. “But it’s an area we have to focus on, most definitely.”

... Though the Navy is well aware of the strategic importance of the Arctic, and has increasingly made it a priority issue, the service is up against a number of issues that might make it more difficult to expand its presence in the near-term. For one, it has no icebreakers and the U.S. government as a whole only owns two such ships.

.... But beyond the environmental hazards and limited infrastructure, many of the Navy’s non-ice-capable surface ships are not necessarily equipped to conduct protracted operations in extreme cold weather conditions, to begin with. The Ticonderoga-class cruisers, the first of which got laid down in 1980, was the last of its surface ship designs to feature a purpose-built steam de-icing system. This is apparently not a feature on Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, which form the core of the service’s combat surface fleets.

Ice buildup on weapon systems, radomes, antennas, and other features on the Navy’s ships could limit their functionality or even cause damage. Without specialized de-icing features, a crew might have to spend significant effort manually removing the ice without causing any additional harm. That's to say nothing of the need to clear flight decks and helicopter landing pads on carriers, amphibious ships, and other warships.



----------------------------------------

Navy May Deploy Surface Ships to Arctic This Summer as Shipping Lanes Open Up
https://news.usni.org/2019/01/08/navy-may-deploy-surface-ships-arctic-summer-shipping-lanes-open

... With three potential trans-Arctic routes potentially opening up, he said, the Navy’s discussion about Arctic presence has changed dramatically in the past two years.

“As an example, this summer, the [chief of naval operations] and I have talked about having some ships make the transit in the Arctic. It’s going to be a multi-service task – I think you’ll see the Coast Guard involved. We’re just fleshing it out right now. But what is the purpose of that? We have to learn what it’s like to operate in that environment,” he said.

Spencer said the Ticonderoga-class cruisers were the last class of Navy ships to be designed with steam systems to remove ice from the ship, and that newer classes are not ice-hardened or equipped with systems to remove ice.

When the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group operated north of the Arctic Circle for several weeks this fall, the carrier itself handled the environment well, but its smaller escort ships and the supply ships the carrier relied on had a tougher time in the high sea states and icy waters. Similarly, when the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group sailed from Iceland to Norway in October, the larger amphibious assault ship made the journey safely, but the smaller dock landing ship was damaged in heavy seas and had to turn back.

-----------------------------------

U.S. Warship Stuck in Montreal Since December Due to Ice Resumes Trip Home
https://saultonline.com/2018/03/u-s-warship-stuck-in-montreal-since-december-due-to-ice-resumes-trip-home/

MONTREAL — An American warship stuck in Montreal since Christmas Eve has finally resumed its trip to its home port in Florida, the U.S. Navy confirmed on Saturday.

The USS Little Rock was commissioned in Buffalo, N.Y., on Dec. 16 but was trapped by ice at the Port of Montreal less than two weeks into its maiden voyage.

The warship was equipped with temporary heaters and 16 de-icers designed to reduce ice accumulation on the hull, and the crew was provided with cold-weather clothing in light of the change to their winter plans.



------------------------------

Zukunft: Changing Arctic Could Lead to Armed U.S. Icebreakers in Future Fleet
https://news.usni.org/2017/05/18/zukunft-changing-arctic-environment-could-lead-to-more-armed-icebreakers-in-future-fleet

Adm. Paul Zukunft told the House Appropriations homeland security subcommittee today that three of each icebreakers was the shipbuilding requirement determined in a study five years ago and would still meet today’s requirements.

However, he noted that “ice has retreated at record rates” since then, which makes oil and gas reserves more accessible – which creates a particularly thorny problem for the United States, which would like to claim these resources for its own but hasn’t ratified the U.N. Law of the Sea Convention treaty that would validate this claim.

We have sovereign interests at stake up there as well. We have seen China, for example, with their icebreaker (in the region)... next thing we know we see a Chinese mobile offshore drilling unit going into the extended continental shelf to extract what otherwise would be U.S. oil.

----------------------------

Russia May Put Lasers on Its New Icebreaker Ships
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/news/a27447/russia-new-icebreaker-lasers/

Last April the Russian Navy ordered for two ships for Project 23550, the Ivan Papanin-class icebreakers. Construction of the first began last September at JSC Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg. The two ships are designed to function as icebreakers, tugboats, and patrol vessels.

According to Janes, the two ships will displace about 8,500 tons, about the size of modern destroyers, but much of that weight is due to the reinforced hull needed by icebreakers to plow through thick sea ice. Dimensionally, the Papanin class will be only about the size of a frigate. The ships will carry one AK-176MA 3-inch multipurpose deck gun (76.2-millimeter), a Kamov Ka-27 search and rescue helicopter, and eight Kalibr anti-ship missiles or longer-range cruise missile variants. The ships will be powered by diesel electric engines mounted in azipods generating a combined horsepower of 9,160 horsepower, and will carry bow thrusters for precise maneuvering.

According to Russian state media Sputnik News, the Ivan Papanin ships could be outfitted with lasers in the near future. Later this year Russian engineers will test a 30-kilowatt laser on the icebreaker Dikson, with an eye toward eventually fielding a 200-kilowatt seagoing laser. The article claims the icebreaker will only use lasers for ice cutting, allowing the ships to get around the arctic faster.



----------------------------

Russia Designs Ice-Breaking Nuclear-Powered Submarine for Arctic Shelf Operations
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/01/russia-designs-ice-breaking-nuclear-powered-submarine-arctic-shelf-operations

A vessel that can both crush through the ice and dive beneath it when working on extraction of mineral resources from the Arctic seabed.

It is the design bureau Malachite, famous for developing several classes of Russian navy nuclear powered submarines, that has presented a new 82 meters long submarine with ice-breaking capabilities.

With its special bow and strengthened hull, the submarine is said to be able to navigate through 1,2 meter thick ice in surface position. The vessel will hold Arc5 ice-class according to Russian classification.

Malachite says on its site that the submarine is aimed at working safely beneath the ice without worrying about waves, wind or moving ice on the surface. Fields of operations include both oil and gas subsea installations as well as potential future extraction of other mineral resources to be mined from the Arctic sea floor.

Also Malachite’s Arctic submarine is designed to carry mini-submarines that could work independently from the mother-submarine.



--------------------------------

As the Ice Melts, Nuclear Submarines Train for Arctic War
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/xw5b4d/icex-2018-arctic-war-training

... focusing on the GIUK Gap (the sea between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK) may fall short of the challenge NATO now faces.

For much of the Cold War, the Soviet navy lacked land-attack cruise missiles and would have had to leave its "bastion" in the Barents Sea in order to engage NATO forces, which made the GIUK Gap an important choke point at that time, according to Steven Wills, a military historian and former US Navy surface-warfare officer.

But with the development of sub-launched missiles — especially the modern Kaliber cruise missile — "Today's Russian Navy can remain within its Barents bastion and still launch accurate attacks against ships in the Norwegian Sea and NATO land targets without leaving these protected waters,"

"The real 'Gap' where NATO must focus its deterrent action is the Greenland, Svalbard, North Cape line at the northern limit of the Norwegian and and Greenland Seas," he writes. "It is again time to consider deterrent action and potential naval warfare in the 'High North.'"

The US, Russia and China are stepping up their use of submarines, drones, sensors and other undersea military technology. This is making the security of assets such as undersea internet cables and coastal military facilities an area of growing concern.

-----------------------------------

The Arctic is Unforgiving ...

Too fast, Vasili. Too fast!

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/26178/dramatic-video-of-russian-tu-22m3-crash-landing-in-bad-weather-emerges
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vox_mundi

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #254 on: February 27, 2019, 06:38:09 PM »
Novatek Wants Arctic Shipping Route Open All Year From Around 2023
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-novatek-arctic/novatek-wants-arctic-shipping-route-open-all-year-from-around-2023-idUSKCN1QG2C5

LONDON (Reuters) - Russian gas producer Novatek wants to use nuclear icebreakers to keep the Northern Sea Route, a shipping path traversing the Arctic to Asia, open all year long for its liquefied natural gas (LNG), a top executive said on Wednesday.

“Our plan is to keep the Northern Sea Route open twelve months a year in 2023 to 25 with 100-megawatt-hour nuclear icebreakers,” Novatek Chief Financial Officer Mark Gyetvay told delegates at an energy conference.

Novatek operates the Yamal LNG facilities in Russia’s Arctic north, which have already produced 11 million tonnes of LNG since starting production in December 2017.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #255 on: February 27, 2019, 07:50:11 PM »
Novatek Wants Arctic Shipping Route Open All Year From Around 2023
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-novatek-arctic/novatek-wants-arctic-shipping-route-open-all-year-from-around-2023-idUSKCN1QG2C5

LONDON (Reuters) - Russian gas producer Novatek wants to use nuclear icebreakers to keep the Northern Sea Route, a shipping path traversing the Arctic to Asia, open all year long for its liquefied natural gas (LNG), a top executive said on Wednesday.

“Our plan is to keep the Northern Sea Route open twelve months a year in 2023 to 25 with 100-megawatt-hour nuclear icebreakers,” Novatek Chief Financial Officer Mark Gyetvay told delegates at an energy conference.

Novatek operates the Yamal LNG facilities in Russia’s Arctic north, which have already produced 11 million tonnes of LNG since starting production in December 2017.
Russia is building a couple of 30,000 tonne nuclear ice breakers. The attached image might be out of date already as far as Russia's plans for more icebreakers is concerned.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #256 on: May 29, 2019, 11:46:52 PM »
Meet 'Ural,' Russia's New Nuclear-Powered Icebreaking Behemoth 
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a27615565/ural-russia-icebreaker/

... The ship, Ural, is the third in the class of three Project 22220 icebreakers. The ship was constructed by the Baltic Shipyards of St. Petersburg and will be handed over to Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear agency, in 2021. The Project 22220 ships are 173 meters (567 feet) long and 34 meters (111 feet) wide, making them the largest icebreakers ever constructed. The ships displace a massive 33,000 tons, likely due to large ballast tanks built inside the ship that allow it to ride higher or lower in the water as necessary.

The Ural, and its two sister ships, are each powered by two RITM-200 nuclear reactors generating a total of 350 megawatts. That’s almost five times as much power generated by the turbines on the destroyer USS Zumwalt. This, combined with a thick hull, allows the ships to break through ice up to 3 meters (9.8 feet) thick. The RITM-200, according to Russian state media, will also power Russia’s next generation aircraft carrier, the Project 23000 “Shtorm”.

Russia has built three Project 22220s: Arktika, Sibir, and now Ural, and will sign contracts for two more by the end of the year. According to The Guardian, Putin has promised Russia will operate at least 13 heavy-duty icebreakers by 2035, nine of which will be nuclear powered.



Moscow is building such a large icebreaker fleet in order to support what it calls the Northern Sea Route. As global temperatures increase and Arctic ice continues to shrink a shipping route roughly following Russia’s northern coastline becomes increasingly tenable. This route would bypass Europe, Africa and Asia altogether, cutting a long, expensive shipping route down considerably. Such a route would also be easy for Russia to control, politically and militarily.

Meanwhile, the U.S. icebreaker fleet is down to just aging ships, the larger Polar Star and smaller, newer Healy. The Coast Guard plans to expand the fleet to six ships, three larger icebreakers and three medium size ships, with the first heavy icebreaker due to enter service in 2024.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #257 on: June 05, 2019, 05:30:10 PM »
USS Harry S. Truman Conducts Flight Operations in Arctic Circle
https://www.military.com/video/uss-harry-s-truman-conducts-flight-operations-arctic-circle

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) conducts flight operations in Arctic Circle. For the first time in nearly 30 years, a U.S. aircraft carrier has entered the Arctic Circle. Accompanied by select ships from Carriers Strike Group Eight (CSG-8), Harry S. Truman traveled north to demonstrate the flexibility and toughness of U.S. naval forces through high end warfare training with regional allies and partners.



Three Russian Nuclear-Powered Subs Surface Through Arctic Ice in Drills
http://tass.com/defense/1061451

The Project 885 lead multirole nuclear-powered submarine and two Project 667BDRM strategic subs practiced surfacing in open water patches amid Arctic ice during drills in May, the press office of Russia’s Northern Fleet reported on Monday.

"The underwater nuclear-powered missile cruisers Tula, Novomoskovsk and Severodvinsk were involved in performing missions under the Arctic Ocean’s ice. The submariners practiced a whole range of under-ice sailing tasks, including the search for an open water patch in the designated area and surfacing through ice," the press office said in a statement.

During their underwater missions in the Arctic, the crews of the Northern Fleet’s nuclear-powered submarines also conducted practical research for employing weapons under the ice, the statement says.

The drills were held in May as part of the planned training of the Fleet’s forces during the winter training period, the press office said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Espen

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #258 on: June 05, 2019, 05:37:37 PM »
I wonder how airworthy that Super Hornet is after that shower?
Have a ice day!

magnamentis

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #259 on: June 05, 2019, 05:53:19 PM »
USS Harry S. Truman Conducts Flight Operations in Arctic Circle
https://www.military.com/video/uss-harry-s-truman-conducts-flight-operations-arctic-circle

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) conducts flight operations in Arctic Circle. For the first time in nearly 30 years, a U.S. aircraft carrier has entered the Arctic Circle. Accompanied by select ships from Carriers Strike Group Eight (CSG-8), Harry S. Truman traveled north to demonstrate the flexibility and toughness of U.S. naval forces through high end warfare training with regional allies and partners.


i love this kind of nature's demonstrations of power. reminds me when i was the only windsurfer still out with flying waters (>8 Beaufort) kind of memories when we were young LOL

considering the gargantuan size of those vessels it's incredibly impressing how one of them becomes a playball of the ocean given the right conditions.

yes i thought the same, after all salty water is not really one of the recommended ingredients for high-tech LOL


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #260 on: June 17, 2019, 01:46:01 PM »
From P-maker on the "Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD" thread.
Quote
Since frozen fish is also some kind of food, I decided to put this piece of news here:

https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/shipping-company-maersk-return-arctic-northern-sea-route-summer

Apparently, the World's largest container carrier - Maersk - is about to enter negotiations with Russia's Atomflot about escort along a possible new Northern Sea Route. It seems likely that frozen fish from newly open Arctic waters may be one of the selling points...

While frozen fish may be a significant commodity for this particular venture, I don't think  is a significant part of the long-term equation under consideration by MAERSK.

It's more about MAERSK being more convinced about the viability of the Russian Arctic Sea Route at least for a few months of the year, especially as Russia's commitment to very large icebreakers is a reality, not blah blah (note well, US of A).

Shipping Company Maersk to Return to Arctic Northern Sea Route This Summer
Quote
Maersk’s position on the economic potential of shipping cargo along Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) continues to evolve. While the company, the largest shipping operator in the world, as recently as last month discounted its interest in operating along the route it now confirms to HNN that it is currently exploring the possibility of offering a service on the route in cooperation with Russia’s Atomflot.

Maersk sent the first-ever container ship along the route last summer in what the company then called a “one-off trial voyage.” Following that trial the shipping operator categorically denied any commercial interest in the route and stated that it did not see the NSR as an alternative to its usual routes and that new services were planned according to customer demands and trading patterns.

It appears that these demands and patterns have now changed. In conversations with HNN the company stated that it “has experienced a growing demand for transport of goods from the Far East to West Russia, which we are currently exploring the possibility of offering together with Atomflot.”

While Maersk declined to provide additional details, Russian shipping industry sources and news reports confirm that the company does in fact plan to begin offering a seasonal service this summer with several trips along the NSR.

According to the company’s CEO Søren Skou, who spoke to reporters at last week’s International Economic Forum (IEF) in St. Petersburg, Maersk is exploring the possibility of cargo deliveries between ports of the Far East and St. Petersburg during third quarter of 2019. “Basically it will be Russian goods that will be shipped from the east of the country to the west and vice versa, for example, frozen fish or imported goods from China,” he explained to reporters at the IEF, according to Russian news reports. A Maersk spokesperson said she was unable to provide confirmation of these plans.

Shipping experts emphasize the significant nature of this development. “If true, it would certainly be a departure from Maersk’s long-held public position that the NSR is not a viable east-west alternative to the Suez,” explains Ryan Uljua, Senior Fellow at The Arctic Institute.
____________________________________________________________
ps: The US of A does not have any warships with polar capability. (The coastguard icebreakers are very lightly armed). Indeed the new LNG tankers being built for Russia have far greater icebreaking capability and hull strength. I believe modern warships depend on missile defence systems, not hull strength.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #261 on: June 17, 2019, 08:52:10 PM »
When will the Russian Arctic be open for traffic?

Mind you, the LNG tankers might start coming out of Yamal before it is really open.
But that load of frozen fish might have to wait.

Might not be long.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #262 on: June 22, 2019, 03:35:47 PM »
When will the Russian Arctic be open for traffic?

Attached are 21 Univ Bremen map and ESS, Laptev and  Kara area graphs.

Torching of the ESS not showing much in the 5 day area data.
Laptev is falling to bits.
Kara losing area very much in 2010's average mode.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #263 on: June 22, 2019, 03:37:24 PM »
2 weeks?

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #264 on: June 22, 2019, 04:04:52 PM »
2 weeks?
Using a computer-assisted heuristic process my considered prediction is
'=RANDBETWEEN(7,30)
12
30
18
10
15
Days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #265 on: June 22, 2019, 04:28:34 PM »
Accurate!

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #266 on: June 27, 2019, 03:23:45 PM »
When will the Russian Arctic be open for traffic?

Attached are Univ Bremen map and ESS, Laptev and  Kara area graphs for 26 June.

The Kara Sea now losing area at a rate above 2010's average mode and below 2010's average area. Still needs to melt out a bit more to make a clear channel. Just a few days should do it.

The Laptev Sea after a short hiccup looks like it is set to continue falling to bits. |The Laptev bite makes a wide open channel for traffic.

The ESS is the big question, full up ice (including the western edge of the Chukchi). Area loss has only just started, bringing area to just below the 2010's average. The weather forecast is problematical, the land being very hot for the next few days but perhaps cooling rapidly next week. Will sufficient ice be lost near the coast to open the route in the last 4 days of June?  A big ask.
______________________________________________________________
Not that will stop the Russians. Those new LNG tankers (a dozen or more) can take on ice at east 1 metre thick, and Russia's icebreakers have to earn their living.

And over the next few years
- The Ural and its two future companions, and after that,
- The Lider class,
     4.5 metre ice? no problem.
     2m ice? Cut a channel 55 metres wide at 12 knots.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #267 on: July 03, 2019, 04:09:58 PM »
the Kara is being cleared out.
The Laptev is almost open enough already

The ESS, if anything,  may block the opening of this route.
But now it looks as if after a late start the ESS is strongly melting.

So my guess is the route will be open this month and before the NW Passage.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #268 on: July 03, 2019, 10:43:12 PM »
The huge Laptev bite seems to enable an open route N of the New Siberian Islands rather than open waters south of these islands through fast(?) ice zones??
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #269 on: July 08, 2019, 03:39:38 PM »
I predicted this Russian route would be open before the end of July. A note on progress to ensuring nature does what I told it to do follows. (Being open for LNG tankers with ice-breaking capability is a cheat and don't count).

The Kara is being cleared out most satisfactorily..
The Laptev is almost open enough already and further melting will give alternative shipping routes,
The ESS, if anything, looked as if it may block the opening of this route. But now after a late start the ESS is strongly melting and soon will be wide open off the shores of Russia.

So my guess conviction is the route will be open this month and before the NW Passage (as usual).
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #270 on: July 08, 2019, 04:07:11 PM »
I agree, and the Laptev/ESS are going to be briefly warmed up again until Friday or so, not like June but should accelerate the crumbling down.

Dr Freeze

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #271 on: July 08, 2019, 05:30:58 PM »
Does anyone think that there is a chance this year that a third route might open up this year, the third route being the ice free zone just north of the Canadian arctic islands all the way to north of Greenland.  Personally I don't think I would want to travel it in case the winds shift and blew the ice back towards the coast.  But it seems like this year so much of the MYI that clings to these islands have lifted off.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #272 on: July 08, 2019, 06:05:56 PM »
Does anyone think that there is a chance this year that a third route might open up this year, the third route being the ice free zone just north of the Canadian arctic islands all the way to north of Greenland.  Personally I don't think I would want to travel it in case the winds shift and blew the ice back towards the coast.  But it seems like this year so much of the MYI that clings to these islands have lifted off.
Bear in mind that any wind pushing toward Fram would induce an ice drift, and the drift a subsequent Coriolis force on the ice toward the Greenland/CAA wall. And more often than not that is the prevailing wind so that's another reason why the pack stays stuck to Greenland/CAA

Also there is an underlying ocean current toward Fram that causes the same effect on the traveling ice.
Reversing these things seems unlikely

Dr Freeze

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #273 on: July 08, 2019, 08:29:31 PM »
while I agree with what you are saying it just seems that the ice keeps lifting off the coast there this year.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #274 on: July 10, 2019, 04:03:42 PM »
I predicted this Russian route would be open before the end of July, specifically in the second half of the month.. A note on progress to ensuring nature does what I told it to do follows. (Being open for LNG tankers with ice-breaking capability is a cheat and don't count).

The Kara is being cleared out most satisfactorily..
The Laptev is almost open enough already and further melting will give alternative shipping routes,
The ESS, if anything, looked as if it may block the opening of this route. But now after a late start the ESS is strongly melting and looks like it will very soon be wide open off the shores of Russia.

So my concern is that the route will be open by the 15th July - too early, (and several weeks before the NW Passage (as usual)).

At this rate Putin will have 40+ icebreakers with nowt to do for three months. Could he lend some to the US Navy to open up the NW Passage?
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #275 on: July 11, 2019, 04:55:23 PM »
The passage as of July, 10th. No comment ...
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #276 on: July 11, 2019, 06:13:22 PM »
Amazingly it seems open from end to end. Where is jim Hunt to give a final confirming verdict?
And if true, surely this is the earliest on record?

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #277 on: July 11, 2019, 06:16:57 PM »
Amazingly it seems open from end to end. Where is jim Hunt to give a final confirming verdict?
And if true, surely this is the earliest on record?
I looked at the University of Bremen images and thought there were still a couple of small maybes.
So I didn't post, thinking tomorrow would settle it.

Anyway, my prediction that belonged to me (2nd half of July) looks like being WRONG.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #278 on: July 11, 2019, 09:34:25 PM »
There are still some patches of ice that probably will come and go on the satellite images but within three or four days everything should be done.
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #279 on: July 12, 2019, 12:45:54 PM »
It looks open on the Bremen concentration map, but in worldview today (12th July) there is still quite a large chunk in the ESS that stretches to the coast.  It doesn't look in great shape, so I don't think it will be that long now.



Edit: reduced image size (oops)

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #280 on: July 14, 2019, 01:25:52 PM »
That blasted cyclone plonked in the middle of the Arctic Ocean is producing strong counter-clockwise winds at and along the Russian coast-line. It has shoved a lump of ice in the way. (see image attached). Could block the route for a few days until melt disposes of the clutter.

Skipper! Back to port!

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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #281 on: July 19, 2019, 05:05:56 PM »
That blasted cyclone plonked in the middle of the Arctic Ocean is still producing counter-clockwise winds at and along the Russian coast-line.

So the ice is melting but lumps of ice keep on getting shoved ice in the way.  Could block the route for a few days more until melt finally disposes of the clutter.

Skipper! Back to Stay in port!

gif plays 3 times then stops.
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #282 on: July 27, 2019, 06:20:50 AM »
Looks pretty open now: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png



Only one point where it's even pinched small at all.

Incidentally, a LNG tanker has just set a new record for northern sea route transit speed with cargo on board and no icebreaker suppport https://tass.com/economy/1070320
« Last Edit: July 27, 2019, 07:09:05 AM by Paddy »

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #283 on: July 30, 2019, 01:33:56 PM »

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #284 on: July 30, 2019, 02:04:18 PM »
Great footage of the Yamal sailing through some real ice. At around 1:00 the ice seems surprizingly thick, with snow drifts and pressure ridges. Great to see what it looks like in real life, as opposed to pixels on satellit photos.
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #285 on: July 30, 2019, 05:14:41 PM »
Wait a minute. What's that?

How is the ice so flexible, clearly showing the bow wave of the ship?

Can someone elaborate on that a little?

Thanks so much for sharing, Binntho. What a stunning video.
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #286 on: July 30, 2019, 05:31:46 PM »
Wait a minute. What's that?

How is the ice so flexible, clearly showing the bow wave of the ship?

Can someone elaborate on that a little?
Well, yes, ice is flexible up to a point, as can be seen in glaciers that flow like molasses.

Glass plates can be bent up to a certain point, so I'm sure that a cover of ice a few tens of centimeters thick can also be bent to a certain extent without breaking.
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #287 on: July 30, 2019, 05:33:38 PM »
Wait a minute. What's that?

How is the ice so flexible, clearly showing the bow wave of the ship?

Can someone elaborate on that a little?

Thanks so much for sharing, Binntho. What a stunning video.

New thin sea ice is quite flexible. When we were kids we would go out on fresh ice, about 5cm thick and waves would propagate simply from our walking across it. If we stood still, a noticeable bowl would form. So, bow waves in new sea is normal.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #288 on: July 30, 2019, 05:35:45 PM »
Wait a minute. What's that?

How is the ice so flexible, clearly showing the bow wave of the ship?

Can someone elaborate on that a little?

Thanks so much for sharing, Binntho. What a stunning video.

New thin sea ice is quite flexible. When we were kids we would go out on fresh ice, about 5cm thick and waves would propagate simply from our walking across it. If we stood still, a noticeable bowl would form. So, bow waves in new sea is normal.
Wow!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #289 on: July 30, 2019, 05:41:49 PM »
Thanks so much, guys. I knew it is flexible, but that flexible... WOW!
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #290 on: July 31, 2019, 10:20:13 PM »
Some interesting comments from Robert Rohde on twitter, based on NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1156567447228637184

Quote from: Robert Rohde
As of July 30th, the Northeastern Passage through the Arctic Ocean is now open for the 2019 season, as the sea ice has just barely pulled away from the Russian coast.

This is the third earliest opening date in the NSIDC satellite observations going back to 1979.


Quote from: Robert Rohde
Periods during the satellite era when the Arctic Ocean has been passable without the use of ice-breaking ships.

Such periods have become much more common since 2008, and the start of the 2019 season is the third earliest in the satellite record.


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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #291 on: August 02, 2019, 10:28:11 PM »
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.

We do not have a Russian asset in the White House. Enough fake news.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #292 on: August 02, 2019, 10:56:27 PM »
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.

We do not have a Russian asset in the White House. Enough fake news.
The threads about politics of this Forum are elsewhere (I personally don’t recommend them, but politics out of here, please)

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #293 on: August 02, 2019, 11:42:03 PM »
The very phrase 'fake news' is straight out of Vladimir's playbook. Please delete your post and I will delete mine.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #294 on: August 29, 2019, 01:20:05 PM »

"The Arctic shortcut that connects Asia and Europe is open and ice-free and shipping appears smooth, including for vessels without ice class standards.

The last pieces of frozen water vanished in mid-August and data shows that the whole route is now free of ice.
...
The Northern Sea Route is a top priority for the Kremlin. President Putin said that he wanted annual shipments on the route to reach 80 million tons in 2024.

In 2018, shipments amounted to about 20 million tons, and estimates made by the Natural Resources Ministry predicted a total of 30 million tons by the end of 2019."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/08/29/ice-on-russias-northern-sea-route-has-disappeared-opening-up-arctic-shipping-lanes-a67067

Russian site with info on the traffic on NSR, weather conditions, where they have put their buoyes etc:
http://www.nsra.ru/en/home.html#

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #295 on: August 29, 2019, 08:31:49 PM »
The Bremen is just entering the Arctic Ocean on the second leg of its circumnavigation of the Arctic having just completed the NW Passage leg.
https://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen/explore-ship/webcam-ships-position

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #296 on: August 29, 2019, 10:40:17 PM »
There is no ice left on Northern Sea Route
But the number of ships that set course for the Arctic route still remains low.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/08/there-no-ice-left-russias-northern-sea-route
Quote
Furthermore, only a limited part of the ships now sailing on the route actually carry goods. The official NSR list of vessels shows that almost half are tugs and support and service vessels, most of which are involved in oil and gas-related activities. They either assist in the ongoing well drilling operations of rigs “Arkticheskaya”, “Amazon” and “Nan Hai Bao Hai”, or engage in operations related to the Yamal LNG and the Sabetta sea terminal.
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #297 on: November 01, 2019, 11:52:43 AM »
Russia Is Now Sending Its Main Crude Oil Through the Arctic
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-10-31/russia-s-urals-crude-flows-through-arctic-sea-for-the-first-time

Two oil tankers, between them carrying about 1.5 million barrels of Urals crude from the port of Primorsk in western Russia, sailed through the Arctic ocean to China in recent weeks, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s the first time that’s happened since at least 2011, according to the Northern Sea Route Information Office.

Shipments of commodities and other goods across the top of Russia doubled to about 20 million tons last year with oil and gas dominating.

The crude oil carried by the two tankers would usually have traveled via Egypt’s Suez Canal, or around Africa, to reach Asia. One of the vessel’s voyages took about a month. On the normal route, shipments can take longer than 50 days and require cargo-transfers at sea onto bigger supertankers that are best-suited to such long-distance voyages. Other crude oil, shipped from Russia’s Arctic Sea ports, has already been using the trade route.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #298 on: December 05, 2019, 07:51:10 PM »
Russia' Arctic Developments...

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy/2019/10/shipping-northern-sea-route-40
Shipping on Northern Sea Route up 40%
Goods volumes are expected to reach 29 million tons in course of 2019, says leader of Russia’s Northern Sea Route Administration.

October 04, 2019
Quote
According to Nikolay Monko, shipments on the Arctic route in the first nine months of the year amounted to 23,37 million tons. By the end of the year, the volumes are likely to reach 29 million tons, the acting head of the Northern Sea Route Administration said in this week’s RAO/СIS Offshore conference in St. Petersburg.

The shipping volumes constitute an increase of more than 40 percent from last year. In 2018, a total of 20,18 million tons of goods were transported on the route.

The lion’s share of NSR ship traffic is related to the liquified natural gas produced by Novatek. The company’s Yamal LNG is expected to produce more than 16 million tons in 2019.

Few transit shipments
Despite the major increase in Arctic shipping, transit shipments between east and west on the Northern Sea Route remain low. In the first nine months of 2019, a total of 441,800 tons was shipped on the route. Like in the previous years, the key share of the transit shipments was provided by Chinese company COSCO.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/10/putin-wants-new-connection-between-arctic-coast-and-indian-ocean/

Putin wants new connection between Arctic coast and Indian Ocean
The construction of a railway line to Sabetta is what is needed, the president argues.

Quote
«Together, we must contemplate about how to speed up the formation of an Eurasian transport network, a true grid of latitudinal and longitudinal routes,» Putin underlined in his speech and subsequently underlined that the Arctic must be part of the picture.

«One perspective route is between the Arctic, Siberia and Asia,» he said and added that the missing link in the picture is a railway line to Sabetta, the new Arctic seaport on the northern coast of peninsula Yamal.

«The idea is to connect the ports on the Northern Sea Route with the ports of the Pacific and Indian Oceans by means of transport arterials through Eastern Siberia, the heartlands of Eurasia,» the president told the conference participants.

Among them were Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, King of Jordan Abdullah II, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Filipinian leader Rodrigo Duterte

«In order to implement this idea, we intend to speed up the construction of railway lines to the port of Sabetta,» Putin said.

The connection is part of the major Northern Latitudinal Passage project and is aimed a boosting shipments across Russian Arctic waters.

A 170 km long railway line to Sabetta is projected to connect with an existing line to Bovanenkovo, the natural gas hub in the region. The Northern Latitudinal Passage also includes a 17 km long bridge across the Ob River, from Salekhard to Labytnangi, and a railway line to Novy Urengoy in Western Siberia.

More than 700 km of new railway must be built to complete the whole project. The lion’s share of the new infrastructure will have to be built on the permafrost and in harsh Arctic conditions.

Several government ministries have previously made clear that the Northern Latitudinal Passage will be completed in year 2024 and that the goods volumes on the new railway ultimately will boost shipments on the Northern Sea Route by up to eight million tons by 2025.

Needed investments are estimated to more than 230 billion rubles (€3 billion). A major share of it is to be covered by private companies.
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