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blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #300 on: May 28, 2020, 07:25:32 AM »
Tanker cross Russian Arctic route without icebreaker assistance

Quote
The sea ice along the Russian Arctic coast is quickly vanishing as temperatures in the region have been reaching record highs.

With the retreating ice comes tanker traffic.

It was the “Christophe de Margerie” that on the 19th May kickstarted this year’s shipping season across the eastern part of the Northern Sea Route. The vessel owned and operated by Russian shipping company Sovcomflot loaded up liquefied natural gas in Sabetta and is due to arrive in the Chinese port of Jingtang on the 11th June.

It was the earliest east-bound shipment on the route ever for this kind of vessel.

By 27th May, the ship had made it almost to the island of Wrangle, information from ship tracker service MarineTraffic shows. The “Christophe de Margerie” is accompanied by nuclear powered icebreaker “Yamal”.

In the wake of the almost 300 meter long vessel now follow the “Vladimir Voronin”, a vessel that is operated by company Teekay. The “Vladimir Voronin” on the 25th May left Sabetta and was on May 27th located in the Vilkitsky Strait north of the Taymyr Peninsula.

The ”Vladimir Voronin” is not accompanied by icebreaker. The “50 Let Pobedy” that escorted the “Vladimir Voronin” out of Sabetta and eastwards towards the Vilkitsky Strait has now returned and appears to be on its way back to Sabetta.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2020/05/tankers-cross-russian-arctic-route-without-icebreaker-assistance

Juan C. García

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #301 on: June 01, 2020, 06:15:57 AM »
‘Zombie fires’ are erupting in Alaska and likely Siberia, signaling severe Arctic fire season may lie ahead
Move over, ‘murder hornets.’ There’s a new 2020 phenomenon to worry about.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/28/zombie-fires-burning-arctic-siberia/
Just by looking at it, it looks like the North Sea route will open earlier than usual. Very hot on the Russian side for two years, almost without winter. And even "zombie fires" that start in 2019 and continue in 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #302 on: June 15, 2020, 06:42:09 AM »
Just by looking at it, it looks like the North Sea route will open earlier than usual. Very hot on the Russian side for two years, almost without winter.
Two weeks later...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Downpuppy

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #303 on: July 07, 2020, 02:28:12 PM »
3 more weeks & getting there

blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #304 on: July 12, 2020, 06:02:50 PM »
North-east passage is open now.

be cause

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #305 on: July 12, 2020, 06:44:07 PM »
If the mega crack becomes open sea is there a name for that route ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #306 on: July 12, 2020, 06:48:20 PM »
Yes, that's the north-west passage.

Edit: Wait, no! The northwest passage is through the CAA. But maybe that counts as north-west too?

Aluminium

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #307 on: July 12, 2020, 07:22:38 PM »
Maybe north-north passage? Or north-south? :)

igs

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #308 on: July 12, 2020, 07:32:33 PM »
For now Central Arctic Route would be an idea and later we can call it "Polar Route"


 ;)

HapHazard

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #309 on: July 12, 2020, 07:52:14 PM »
If the mega crack becomes open sea is there a name for that route ?

The OMG passage.

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #310 on: July 12, 2020, 09:09:05 PM »
Central Arctic Route    CAR


Take CAR to the other side of the world.

KenB

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #311 on: July 12, 2020, 09:13:03 PM »
North-east passage is open now.

It seemed like it should be.  Just today I went looking for some kind of official announcement, but couldn't find anything.  Have you seen or heard something official?  If so, where, please?   Thanks!
« Last Edit: July 12, 2020, 09:36:58 PM by KenB »
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

oren

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #312 on: July 12, 2020, 09:26:15 PM »
Usually I wait for Jim Hunt to proclaim it...
Jim?

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #313 on: July 12, 2020, 09:39:10 PM »
As far as I understand the route is not officially open until the relevant authorities issues an ice chart that shows clear passage. This has not happened yet, it still shows blockage in the Kara. And I don't think regular ships will attempt the route without this sort of confirmation. Might happen next update though. http://www.nsra.ru/en/navigatsionnaya_i_gidrometinformatsiya/chart_ice_kara_sea.html

Lord M Vader

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #314 on: July 12, 2020, 09:39:34 PM »
It is hard to see but the Northern Route has not opened up yet. Look very closely at the ice close to Severnaya Zemlya and you will see that ice is still blocking the Route. However, the Route will likely open up by next week.

Stephan

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #315 on: July 12, 2020, 09:54:09 PM »
I guess the numbers in that Russian ice chart indicate tenth of ice coverage (e.g. 9 = 9/10 = 90%)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

grixm

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #316 on: July 12, 2020, 09:56:38 PM »
I guess the numbers in that Russian ice chart indicate tenth of ice coverage (e.g. 9 = 9/10 = 90%)

Yes it is annotated in the full picture in the link I posted.

blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #317 on: July 12, 2020, 10:00:36 PM »
Looks to me as if a boat would fit there. Click to enlarge.

P-maker

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #318 on: July 12, 2020, 10:05:19 PM »
By all means,

Please call it the circum-polar route.

igs

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #319 on: July 12, 2020, 10:13:51 PM »
As far as I understand the route is not officially open until the relevant authorities issues an ice chart that shows clear passage. This has not happened yet, it still shows blockage in the Kara. And I don't think regular ships will attempt the route without this sort of confirmation. Might happen next update though. http://www.nsra.ru/en/navigatsionnaya_i_gidrometinformatsiya/chart_ice_kara_sea.html

This kind of seeking "official" agains visible, physical and mathematical  facts

The route is navigable, it think we're talking about the development and behaviour of the arctic ice in the first place and not about some russion civil cervants feeling fit to announce something today or tomorrow because it's i.e. Sunday.

<Removed irrelevant part. O>
« Last Edit: July 12, 2020, 10:51:39 PM by oren »

blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #320 on: July 12, 2020, 10:23:52 PM »
Circum-polar OMG north-northpole passage it is.

grixm

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #321 on: July 12, 2020, 10:53:24 PM »
This kind of seeking "official" agains visible, physical and mathematical  facts is part of what
kept us to react to AGW in time, even though my teachers told me it will eventually happen about 60 years ago in school.

The route is navigable, it think we're talking about the development and behaviour of the arctic ice in the first place and not about some russion civil cervants feeling fit to announce something today or tomorrow because it's i.e. Sunday.

While I understand where you are coming from, a sea route opening is not a scientific event, it is shipping-related event. The route is open when the ships can start sailing it. And this does not equate there being no ice in the route, it equates the ships having confidence that there is no ice in the route. Because without this confidence, the ships will not attempt to sail the route, even if it would have worked if they gambled and tried anyway. And such confidence requires confirmation from a better source than just hobbyists peeking at low-resolution cloudy satellite images.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #322 on: July 13, 2020, 12:23:00 AM »
Jim?

Grixm got there before me!

According to the July 10th AARI chart for the Kara Sea there's also an "iceberg risk" in the Vilkitsky Strait, so let's wait for the next chart.

Plus see also: http://archive.is/9lT4q

Quote
Urgent information to mariners:

On July 10, at 13-39 UTC, the iceberg was discovered by the tanker "CHRISTOPHЕ DE MARGERIE"
at a radar detection distance of 20 miles.
Visually without aids 10 miles.
Coordinates 77-22.3 N - 109-52.9 E
Drift rate 0.7 knots. Drift direction 121 gr.
Approximate elevation above the water surface 25 m. Width 40-60 m.

On July 10, at 11-36 UTC, the tanker "CHRISTOPHE DE MARGERIE"  discovered an iceberg at a detection distance of 20 miles.Visually without aids 12 miles.Coordinates 77-21.8 N - 111-16.7 E.  Drift rate 0.5 knots. Drift direction 143 gr. Approximate elevation above the water surface 30 m, Width - Length 200-300 m, respectively.

There doesn't seem to be any other vessel in that vicinity at the moment, though there are a couple headed that way from the far east:

http://www.nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp.html?date=2020-07-10
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

HapHazard

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #323 on: July 13, 2020, 01:48:33 AM »
If I can do it in my kayak, then it's open.

Now someone just need to pay my way there to test the theory.  ;D

Juan C. García

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #324 on: July 13, 2020, 05:20:12 AM »
3 more weeks & getting there
There we are!!!
Time to take the kayak!!!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #325 on: July 13, 2020, 05:36:21 AM »
Sorry Juan but we have to wait a few more days until it is time to take the kayak. Ice is still blocking the Route just West of Severnaya Zemlya.

HapHazard

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #326 on: July 13, 2020, 05:46:42 AM »
There we are!!!
Time to take the kayak!!!


blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #327 on: July 13, 2020, 08:41:09 AM »
peeking at low-resolution cloudy satellite images.

Curious, do you consider Sentinel 2 low-res, Grixm?

bluice

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #328 on: July 13, 2020, 09:14:08 AM »
I doubt it's only about resolution, but the potential hazards at sea. It must be different to sail a ship on the ocean than decide what's safe by looking at sat pictures on a computer screen. I'd rather trust the guys making their living by sailing the arctic icebreakers.

Are the individual drifting floes meters thick MYI or just soft rubble? Any chance of ice blocking the once opened channel? How is the wind, waves, visibility, weather forecast etc.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #329 on: July 13, 2020, 09:35:34 AM »
Curious, do you consider Sentinel 2 low-res, Grixm?

Do you have any hi-res cloud free images of the Vilkitsky Strait and the approaches thereto?

If so can you spot those icebergs?!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #330 on: July 13, 2020, 09:44:37 AM »
Nah, SAR is better for spotting icebergs. But that is even lower-res. ;)

I get your point though, Jim.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #331 on: July 14, 2020, 05:32:03 PM »
Worldview NASA hints about that the Northern Sea Route might have opened up today. Anyone who can confirm or refute that?

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #332 on: July 14, 2020, 05:44:30 PM »
Worldview NASA hints about that the Northern Sea Route might have opened up today. Anyone who can confirm or refute that?
The image says yes, but who makes it official?
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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #333 on: July 14, 2020, 06:22:26 PM »
Worldview NASA hints about that the Northern Sea Route might have opened up today. Anyone who can confirm or refute that?
The image says yes, but who makes it official?

The official opening will be only in August.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/northeast-passage-to-open-in-mid-august-northwest-passage-expected-to-open-in-mid-september/




But the real opening happened as early as in 2011.


https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1156567447228637184

Quote
Periods during the satellite era when the Arctic Ocean has been passable without the use of ice-breaking ships.

Such periods have become much more common since 2008, and the start of the 2019 season is the third earliest in the satellite record.


Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #334 on: July 14, 2020, 07:28:30 PM »
Who makes it official?

Here's some images of the latest AARI charts (dated July 14th):

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #335 on: July 27, 2020, 03:00:55 PM »
Ships moving in as Arctic sea ice level reaches record low. The Northern Sea Route is now completely open.

Quote
More than 50 vessels are currently sailing on the route, figures from the Northern Sea Route Administration show. Several of them are tankers bringing petroleum products from Arctic fields to Asian markets.

The first LNG carriers made it across the route already in late May, the earliest voyages on the route ever.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2020/07/ships-moving-arctic-sea-ice-level-reaches-record-low

List of ships >> http://nsra.ru/ru/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp.html?date=2020-07-23

vox_mundi

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #336 on: August 29, 2020, 12:17:57 AM »
US and Russia are having a pissing contest in the Arctic with toys that go boom ....

Navy Makes Unusual Public Display Of Its Secretive Seawolf Submarine's Presence Off Norway
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35997/navy-makes-unusual-public-display-of-its-secretive-seawolf-submarines-presence-off-norway

Russian Submarine Sets Off Alarm Bells After Surfacing Near Alaska In the Bering Strait Amid Rash Of Posturing
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36056/russian-submarine-sets-off-alarm-bells-after-surfacing-near-alaska-amid-rash-of-posturing
« Last Edit: August 29, 2020, 08:53:26 PM by vox_mundi »
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Paddy

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #337 on: August 29, 2020, 07:08:38 PM »
Shipping via the Northern Sea Route is expected to decline by 2.5 million tons in 2020 compared to 2019, due in large part to reduced Russian oil exports under current global economic circumstances https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2020/08/after-years-big-growth-comes-decline-russian-arctic-seaports
https://arctic.ru/economics/20200826/966534.html

EDIT: This seems a little counterintuitive in a year when the northern sea route has been this clear, but the numbers are what they are.

Incidentally, ships navigating the Northern Sea Route this year should include one of the world's largest sailing ships, the 100 year old bark Sedov. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2020/08/hundred-years-old-tall-ship-sedov-embarks-historic-arctic-voyage
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 06:30:12 AM by Paddy »

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #338 on: August 30, 2020, 10:30:14 AM »
Incidentally, ships navigating the Northern Sea Route this year should include one of the world's largest sailing ships, the 100 year old bark Sedov.

See also: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,596.msg283759.html#msg283759
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« Reply #339 on: October 22, 2020, 06:37:38 PM »
So when do we think it'll close this year? Before or after the US election?