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crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2250 on: April 04, 2018, 04:58:39 PM »
Bahrain discovers offshore oilfield 'containing 80bn barrels'

Quote
Bahrain says a newly-discovered oil field contains up to 80bn barrels of tight (or shale) oil, dwarfing the Gulf island kingdom's current reserves.

Appraisals of the offshore Khaleej Al Bahrain basin by two US firms also suggest the presence of 280bn to 560bn cubic metres of natural gas.

Oil Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa said it was not yet known how much oil could be extracted.

But it could turn Bahrain into a major player in the global market.

Before the discovery, Bahrain had proven crude reserves of just 125m barrels and 92bn cubic metres of natural gas.

By comparison, neighbouring Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, has 266bn barrels of proven reserves. Qatar, the top exporter of liquefied natural gas, has 24tn cubic metres of gas.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43644629

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2251 on: April 05, 2018, 04:35:20 AM »
It’s time to think seriously about cutting off the supply of fossil fuels
A new paper makes the case for supply-side climate policy.
Bahrain discovers offshore oilfield 'containing 80bn barrels'
I'm sorry but with all this shite floating around, and more discovered every day by a myriad of countries, the only practical solution is to kill demand at the consumer level, as Elon is trying to do.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2252 on: April 05, 2018, 09:19:27 AM »
Believe it or not I've been looking at e-bikes for a while.
Makes choosing a car that much more difficult as I'd like to be carry the bike out of the weather.


Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2253 on: April 06, 2018, 06:35:32 AM »
It’s time to think seriously about cutting off the supply of fossil fuels
A new paper makes the case for supply-side climate policy.
Bahrain discovers offshore oilfield 'containing 80bn barrels'
I'm sorry but with all this shite floating around, and more discovered every day by a myriad of countries, the only practical solution is to kill demand at the consumer level, as Elon is trying to do.
It's been flowing for decades.
http://climateinvestigations.org/shell-oil-climate-documents-revealed/
Quote
“However, by the time the global warming becomes detectable it could be too late to take effective countermeasures to reduce the effects or even to stabilize the situation.”
Quote
“Following the storms, a coalition of environmental NGOs brings a class-action suit against the US government and fossil-fuel companies on the grounds of neglecting what scientists (including their own) have been saying for years: that something must be done. A social. reaction to the use of fossil fuels grows, and individuals become “vigilante environmentalists” in the same way, a generation earlier, they had become fiercely anti-tobacco. Direct-action campaigns against companies escalate. Young consumers, especially, demand action…The power, auto, and oil industries see billions wiped off their market value overnight.”

We are not doing anywhere near what we should be doing and the only practical solution might also be the hardest one. You might be interested in watching this interview with Laila Pawlak. It's OT for this thread but relevant to your comment. In English.

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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2254 on: April 06, 2018, 08:58:43 PM »
West Texas Intermediate has been in the mid $60s recently, but is down some, probably assoiated with the recent stock market volatility (Dow Jones Ind. Ave. is down over 730 points - 3% - today, right now).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2255 on: April 07, 2018, 04:08:08 PM »
Oklahoma’s sudden increase in earthquakes over the past decade has been tied to fracking/waste-injection.  The Pawnee quake in 2016 was the state’s strongest, at 5.8.  Now small quakes are increasing on a nearby fault:

“A pair of widely-felt earthquakes: 3.6 and 3.5, in the past 2 days along the strike-slip fault that is conjugate to the fault that ruptured in the Pawnee earthquake. This fault had quakes in months leading up to the Pawnee earthquake and after. New activity is concerning #okquake ”
https://mobile.twitter.com/jakewalter9/status/981912270434390016
Image below.

2016:
Pawnee earthquake upgraded to magnitude 5.8
http://newsok.com/article/5517153
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ghoti

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2256 on: April 07, 2018, 05:12:12 PM »
Add a 4.6 today near Perry OK...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2257 on: April 07, 2018, 05:54:18 PM »
Add a 4.6 today near Perry OK...

 :o
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2258 on: April 09, 2018, 01:10:07 PM »
Permian Bottleneck Could Impact Global Oil Markets


Quote
The Permian basin is driving U.S. shale growth, with expectations that the basin will add enormous volumes this year, keeping the oil market well-supplied. But the Permian’s pipeline network is already filling up, forcing steep discounts for oil, and threatening to derail the aggressive growth projections for the region.

The EIA predicts the Permian will hit 3.156 million barrels per day (mb/d) of output in April, an increase of 80,000 bpd from March, and up a shocking 850,000 bpd from a year ago. Shale E&Ps and the oil majors are pouring in billions of dollars into the region, and two out of every three rigs the industry is adding is going into the Permian.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/permian-bottleneck-could-impact-global-230000390.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2259 on: April 09, 2018, 01:41:07 PM »
Kinder Throws Trans Mountain Expansion Pipeline Project Into Doubt, Dealing Major Blow to Canada Oil Sands
• Trans Mountain expansion work halted amid opposition, delays
• Trudeau says project is in national interest and will be built
Quote
Canada’s oil-sands industry suffered a major blow as Kinder Morgan Inc. halted most work on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, throwing into doubt a project that could have helped alleviate shipping bottlenecks plaguing the nation’s energy producers.

The pipeline company is suspending all non-essential activities and ceasing to commit more resources to the project, which has faced opposition from the coastal province of British Columbia, whose land it traverses. Still, Houston-based Kinder said it will consult with stakeholders to try to reach agreements that will allow the project to proceed and set a May 31 deadline on the talks.

The $5.7 billion Trans Mountain expansion is one of three major pipeline projects that Canada’s oil industry is counting on to help carry more of its crude to refiners abroad. The Kinder project was particularly attractive because it would lessen the industry’s dependence on American buyers by moving an additional 590,000 barrels a day to a shipping terminal near Vancouver, where it could then be sent to markets in Asia.

Leaders in Alberta and the federal government, which approved and supported the project, vowed to keep fighting and pave the way for Kinder to see it through to completion. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/kinder-morgan-suspends-expansion-of-trans-mountain-oil-pipeline


The Kinder Morgan statement:
Kinder Morgan Canada Limited Suspends Non-Essential Spending on Trans Mountain Expansion Project
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kinder-morgan-canada-limited-suspends-non-essential-spending-on-trans-mountain-expansion-project-300626072.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2260 on: April 09, 2018, 01:43:09 PM »
Keystone pipeline leak in South Dakota about double previous estimate: paper
Quote
The Keystone crude oil pipeline leak in November in rural South Dakota was nearly double the original estimate, making it one of the largest U.S. inland spills since 2010, a newspaper report on Saturday said.

Robynn Tysver, a spokeswoman for Calgary-based TransCanada Corp, which owns the pipeline, told the Aberdeen American News some 9,700 barrels of oil leaked in the Nov. 16 spill, the South Dakota paper reported. The original estimate was 5,000 barrels.

The spill gave further ammunition to environmental groups and other U.S. opponents of another pipeline the company has proposed, the long-delayed Keystone XL. ...
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1HE0T7
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2261 on: April 09, 2018, 01:43:58 PM »
Quote
Kinder Throws Trans Mountain Expansion Pipeline Project Into Doubt, Dealing Major Blow to Canada Oil Sands

Permian Basin oil is also negatively affecting the oil sands.  I guess we win one battle.... while losing another.  Keeping a lid on oil prices is not good for the tar sands.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2262 on: April 09, 2018, 02:16:38 PM »
Oklahoma: another earthquake this morning, magnitude 4.3.  Depth 4.0 km.
No significant damage expected.

https://earthquake-report.com/2018/04/09/moderate-earthquake-oklahoma-april-9-2018/
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2263 on: April 09, 2018, 06:29:34 PM »
Some background on TransMountain: yesterday, Notley called for the fed to impose the pipeline on BC. Today, Kinder-Morgan says they're going to suspend unless it can go through.

Not likely a coincidence.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2264 on: April 10, 2018, 06:03:17 PM »
Four days ago West Texas Intermediate was under $62.  Now it is back over $65. (Bloomberg)
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2265 on: April 10, 2018, 06:24:08 PM »
Four days ago West Texas Intermediate was under $62.  Now it is back over $65. (Bloomberg)
Very good news for renewables!
Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2266 on: April 10, 2018, 10:03:11 PM »
This is a potentially very big decision if upheld: PA court challenges the rule of capture:

http://www.ehn.org/pennsylvania-fracking-trespassing-2555983611.html

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2267 on: April 10, 2018, 10:39:19 PM »

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2268 on: April 11, 2018, 11:29:13 PM »
This is a potentially very big decision if upheld: PA court challenges the rule of capture:

http://www.ehn.org/pennsylvania-fracking-trespassing-2555983611.html

sidd

Whoa!  It's worth reading that article.

Basically, someone with natural gas on their property didn't want to sell the mineral rights, so the extraction company set up a well on an adjacent property and did a horizontal well, fracced the shale, and took the gas without paying the property owner that didn't sell the mineral rights!  And the lower court upheld it as  legal.  It was overturned at the state superior court.

Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2269 on: April 12, 2018, 10:03:56 AM »
https://www.etc.se/ekonomi/pa-bankens-torsdagsmys-hyllas-misstankta-forbrytare-som-actionhjaltar
Googleslated with some wording replaced:
Quote
Contesting climate change

Outside the snow melts, but within the shareholding of Nordnet, Ian Lundin is praised as the Indiana Jones of crude oil. And the interviewer gets into the climate threat:

- How should investors think, whether you believe it or not?

Ian Lundin replies that they try to extract the oil as climate-friendly as possible. But nobody on stage reflects on what will happen when Lundin's oil platform starts pumping 140 million liters of crude oil from next year. The oil is expected to flow for at least 50 years ahead.

Climate scientists almost fully agrees that we must leave a large part of the earth's oil reserves in the ground, otherwise the climate will collapse. But why destroy the after work mood? Instead, Ian Lundin get to answer if the oil industry receives unfair criticism. With a smile on his lips he says:

"It's okay that they complain about us, as long as we make money."
Nice guy...
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2270 on: April 12, 2018, 03:51:24 PM »
It used to be that only governments had the resources to do something like this — but they were too beholden to the fossil fuel industry to do it. Now, the technology is priced within reach of non-governmental organizations.

EDF Announces Satellite Mission to Locate and Measure Methane Emissions
New TED Talk reveals collaborative vision designed to build better science, accelerate global reductions in oil & gas methane emissions
Quote
Environmental Defense Fund President Fred Krupp today announced plans to develop and launch a new satellite purpose-built to identify and measure methane emissions from human-made sources worldwide, starting with the oil and gas industry. Data from MethaneSAT is intended to give both countries and companies robust data to spot problem areas, identify savings opportunities, and measure their progress over time.
...
MethaneSAT is designed to measure areas of interest with a level of precision not previously available. It will use a wide, 200 kilometer view path at intervals of seven days or less, making it feasible to regularly monitor roughly fifty major oil and gas regions accounting for over 80% of global production. MethaneSAT will also be capable of measuring emissions from feedlots, landfills, and other man-made methane sources. ...
https://www.edf.org/media/edf-announces-satellite-mission-locate-and-measure-methane-emissions
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2271 on: April 13, 2018, 07:46:44 AM »
Earlier this year Musk stated that Tesla will reach manufacturing cost parity with ICEVs this year.  It will cost no more to manufacture a battery powered car than to manufacture a same-feature car powered by petroleum burned in an internal combustion engine.

This is an extremely important milestone.  It's the turning point for oil.

If true what it means is that battery prices have now fallen sufficiently to wipe out the EV/ICEV cost difference.  And since Panasonic/Tesla have (seemingly) managed to drop cell cost by increasing volume then any battery manufacturer can do the same. 

It means that we should be only short years from most car manufacturers to be able to access large numbers of affordable cells and start manufacturing EVs at about the same cost as their ICEV cars.  And battery prices are likely to drop further.

Less than five years to peak annual oil consumption?  Possible.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2272 on: April 13, 2018, 02:14:45 PM »
Five years is tight, but perhaps. At the current exponential growth rate we’d be close to 10% of new cars being electric. It all depends how much the developing world is growing their car fleet (the developed world pretty much isn’t, we’re just replacing old cars).

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2273 on: April 13, 2018, 05:48:17 PM »
In the US 50% of all driving is done with cars that are five years old or newer.  New cars are used more than older cars.  A 10% loss of their best 'new car customers' might be enough to offset any annual increase in oil use by other customers.

Shortly after EVs reach purchase price parity we should see them become less expensive to purchase than ICEVs.  At that point we should see a serious downturn in oil consumption.
--

That overlooks the possibility that we will be using battery powered robotaxis five years from now.  Since robotaxis can service multiple riders per day and support an automated car sharing service the downturn might be underway.

Companies like Uber would be operating a robotaxi service today if some company would finish developing their self-driving system.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2274 on: April 13, 2018, 09:12:38 PM »
I’m not certain we can scale up production much faster than that; it’s almost as fast as Tesla has been growing, and they’re all-in while most manufacturers are still hemming and hawing.

No matter the sticker price advantage, consumers can’t buy a car that wasn’t built. Car manufacturers might build up Tesla-scale backlogs, and be stuck in production hell.

Maybe overall sales would slump as consumers wait for an EV. We’ll see.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2275 on: April 13, 2018, 09:27:53 PM »
I get the feeling that car manufacturers have largely accepted reality.  They seem to know that they either morph into EV manufacturers or die away.

I think with the 2020 models we'll see a lot of new EV options and those manufacturers will be able to make tens of thousands of units the first year with a route to ramp up to hundreds of thousand fairly rapidly.

If Tesla hits the 5,000 per week for the Model 3 within the next three months as Musk is now predicting then there's likely to be a big scramble underway inside the 'traditionals'.  250,000+ M3s and 100,000+ MSs and MXs is close to half a million per year.  When Tesla has a few months of cranking out cars at that rate then there's a good chance Tesla will start construction on a couple more plants and won't be long from a million units per year.

Tesla has amazingly high owner loyalty.  Once people buy a Tesla they are unlikely to purchase anything else.  The car industry can't afford to lose millions of buyers to Tesla.  Those are customers who are going to be very difficult to win back.  They need to get into the game with lots of product to build their own loyal customer base.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2276 on: April 13, 2018, 09:36:20 PM »
Quote
Tesla has amazingly high owner loyalty.  Once people buy a Tesla they are unlikely to purchase anything else.  The car industry can't afford to lose millions of buyers to Tesla.

My girlfriend was in Switzerland for work this week, and the taxi she rode in was a Tesla X.  She's now hooked....she LOVED it.

The STEEP ramp up for EV's is definitely coming as more models get rolled out.....and prices drop.



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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2277 on: April 14, 2018, 03:51:07 AM »
New Zealand Bans New Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration
Quote
New Zealand will no longer offer new permits for offshore oil and gas exploration, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced Thursday.

"The whole world is going in this direction," Ardern said. "We all signed up to the Paris agreement that said we're moving towards carbon-neutrality, and now we need to act on it."

The ban only affects future permits for offshore oil and gas exploration and will not affect the existing 22. This could allow exploration to feasibly continue in a 38,000-square-mile area until the existing permits expire, which could be "as far out as 2030," the government acknowledged. Permits for onshore oil and gas exploration will also continue. ...
https://www.ecowatch.com/new-zealand-offshore-oil-gas-2559278982.amp.html

More:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/12/new-zealand-bans-all-new-offshore-oil-exploration-as-part-of-carbon-neutral-future
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2278 on: April 16, 2018, 09:14:31 PM »
British Petroleum has a new low-carbon strategy. Big deal ( I don't think so)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/16/lightweight-pr-greenwash-bp-low-carbon-plan-dismissed-environmentalists

Quote
'Lightweight PR and greenwash' – BP's low-carbon plan dismissed
Environmentalists call strategy ‘20th century response to a 21st century problem’


The group spends about $500m (£351m) on biofuels, wind and solar power, about 3% of its annual $15bn-$16bn capital expenditure.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2279 on: April 17, 2018, 11:31:30 AM »
And a dose of harsh reality from Canada. Trudeau's real priorities revealed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/16/canada-trudeau-transcanada-pipeline

Canada: Trudeau vows to push ahead with pipeline plans in spite of protests

PM says he is prepared to use taxpayer dollars to fund controversial expansion opponents say will have serious environmental consequences


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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2280 on: April 17, 2018, 11:44:39 AM »
And more bad news from Australia:-

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/17/northern-territory-lifts-fracking-ban-opening-up-700000-sq-km-to-gas-exploration

Northern Territory lifts fracking ban, opening up 700,000 sq km to gas exploration

Quote
The Australia Institute’s research director, Roderick Campbell, said the decision to allow fracking would have a huge impact on Australia’s carbon emissions and would wipe out emissions savings from the Territory government’s 50% renewables target “one hundred fold”.

“According to the inquiry, fracking will lead to an increase of Australia’s emissions annually by between almost 5% to 6.6%. On top of that, the inquiry acknowledged that many more emissions could be produced overseas, potentially equivalent to 18% of Australia’s emissions every year.

“This is a huge cost for such meagre economic gains. The inquiry also found that the most likely outcome was that few jobs would be created and little revenue raised for the Northern Territory.”
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2281 on: April 17, 2018, 05:54:01 PM »
We aren't going to see cessation of oil/gas extraction and infrastructure construction until we have acceptable alternatives for the roles oil and gas play.

Leaders of countries have to protect their countries' economies.  And if they tried to stop the flow of oil and gas they would soon find themselves replaced.

If we want to damn specific leaders then go after the ones who are opposing renewable energy and the electrification of transportation.  People like Trump who, among his other transgressions, is attempting to allow for less efficient ICEVs.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2282 on: April 17, 2018, 10:01:21 PM »
We aren't going to see cessation of oil/gas extraction and infrastructure construction until we have acceptable alternatives for the roles oil and gas play.

Leaders of countries have to protect their countries' economies.  And if they tried to stop the flow of oil and gas they would soon find themselves replaced.

If we want to damn specific leaders then go after the ones who are opposing renewable energy and the electrification of transportation.  People like Trump who, among his other transgressions, is attempting to allow for less efficient ICEVs.

Correct IMHO. Despite an inevitable slide into oblivion, oil and gas will continue to play a big role, absent a direct and deliberate intervention by all nations to eliminate its use. If it is not a worldwide effort, having Western Europe eliminate entirely the use of oil would only incentivize other nations to continue consuming as the drop in demand would make oil cheaper.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2283 on: April 17, 2018, 11:27:47 PM »
As more developed nations move from ICEVs to EVs the vehicle manufacturing industry will cease manufacturing ICEVs.

Less developed nations, which generally depend on used vehicles imported from more developed countries, will follow along in the transition.


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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2284 on: April 18, 2018, 02:54:50 PM »
You can electrify all light vehicles with EV and still not make a dent in oil and gas. Heavy duty, air, ships - there no EV solution close to even close to commercialization yet. And the need for power and other end uses of oil and gas products still rises. The replacement of oil and gas is still a Φενάκη and it will take massive government and population action to tackle it. Law suits to only a couple of oil companies (ExxonMobil being the poster child somehow while the national oil companies which extract the vast majority of oil remain hidden and not mentioned by anybody).

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2285 on: April 18, 2018, 05:40:16 PM »
You can electrify all light vehicles with EV and still not make a dent in oil and gas. Heavy duty, air, ships - there no EV solution close to even close to commercialization yet.

In the US of A, transportation now consumes more than electricity generation. Economically viable EV's are now on the market, and electric semis will be within 2 to 5 years (as will a proper network of EV chargers).

With battery storage just entering into the market as a commercially attractive alternative for back up, and wind and solar power potential and price sufficient to supply all energy needs for electricity there is every reason to believe that in the US of A it is only politics that can keep the oil and gas industry alive.

There are blockages to renewable completely taking over (as well as from politics)- ocean going shipping, aviation, and (e.g. in the UK) use of LNG for home heating.

It is still the case that where the US of A led (note the past tense), the world will follow. Urban pollution in India and China is forcing their Governments down the renewable path.

Will this kill the oil and gas industry quickly? I doubt it. They own too many politicians.

We will, however, fry slower.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2286 on: April 18, 2018, 05:52:02 PM »
Being on the market or will be on the market does not mean anything if they don’t replace current fleet. For energy, if you replace the current fleet with electric ( will take 15-30 years ) you nhave ed to produce the equivalent electricity. We have not even started to seriously replace current electrical with renewables and you are talking about oil and gas industry being kept alive with politics ?? If everybody stops buying fossil derived energy ( whatever the form ) today oil and gas dies tomorrow ( 50-80% of it - we still need fossil fuel derived not energy products) - politics cannot do anything - it is all market based.

ghoti

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2287 on: April 18, 2018, 05:54:08 PM »
UPS thinks the future is electric. They are already deploying electric trucks.

https://pressroom.ups.com/pressroom/ContentDetailsViewer.page?ConceptType=PressReleases&id=1519225541368-230

So does the German post office. I don't have a link at hand but I'm sure you can find the information.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2288 on: April 18, 2018, 06:47:58 PM »
We have not even started to seriously replace current electrical with renewables a

From Bloomberg New Energy Finance Report

Quote
Global clean energy investment was $333.5 billion in 2017, up 3% from 2016 and the second highest annual figure ever.

The 2017 investment figure is all the more remarkable considering the falling capital costs for the leading technology – solar.
Typical utility-scale photovoltaic systems were about 25% cheaper per megawatt in 2017 than they were two years earlier yet solar investment globally increased 18% year on year to $160.8 billion in 2017 .

The UK renewable industry is in trouble ever since our previous PM (David Cameron) stopped hugging huskies and decided to get rid of the "Green Crap" and changed the rules. He is now paid vast sums to lecture to the very rich on how the UK needs to develop it's fracking industry.

Did I say he sold out? No, I am sure he turned round 180 o through an epiphany on the road to Damascus that showed him the true path.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2289 on: April 18, 2018, 07:10:27 PM »
Many of the large truck fleets have pre-purchased Tesla tractors.  Not purchased one or two for testing but have ordered in quantities such as 50.  That says that they are convinced that battery powered tractors will perform at least some of the hauling now done with diesel and save them money.

Cities are beginning to replace their diesel buses with battery powered buses.  Los Angeles recently purchased 100 BYD electric buses.  Thousands of electric buses are operating in China.

Ground freight and urban transportation will almost certainly move away from petroleum rapidly.  Not only will costs be lower but less harmful diesel emissions will pollute our cities.  The turnover time will more likely hinge on how quickly battery manufacturing can be put in place.  For the next few years demand will outstrip supply.  Look for diesel use in ground freight and urban transportation to be significantly lower within 15 years.

Tesla has said that they will reach manufacturing cost parity with ICEVs this year.  That means low battery prices coming from Panasonic.  Panasonic is building its own 'gigafactory'.  Within a couple of years other vehicle manufacturers will be able to purchase low price cells.  LG Chem, Samsung and other battery manufacturers are working toward battery manufacturing at the scale needed to make batteries cheap.

Within five years we should be able to choose between similar version EVs and ICEVs that cost the same. And soon after the EV should cost less.  That's the point at which we see a rapid switch to what sells.  Who is going to pay more for a car that costs more to operate, doesn't ride or perform as nicely, and is less convenient?  Very significant change in car purchasing within ten years with a strong drop in petroleum use as new cars get used more for driving than do older cars.

Unlike coal and nuclear it is highly unlikely that governments can do anything to help the oil industry.  Governments can build expensive reactors and subsidize existing coal and nuclear plants.  It's highly unlikely any government will outlaw battery powered vehicles or put a tax on them, making them more expensive than fueled vehicles.

There is a good chance we will see peak oil consumption within five years.  A noticeable drop in demand in ten.  A clear and meaningful drop in fifteen.  Twenty years from now our oil consumption should be a minor fraction of what we use today.

And there's possibly another player waiting in the wings.  Public pressure to deal with climate change will grow as we experience more extreme weather, overall global warming, and the old fart deniers die off.  We should expect governments doing more to accelerate the transition off fossil fuels.

We might see, for example, bans on diesel engines in urban areas.  Higher  taxes on petroleum fuel. 'Cash for guzzlers' programs where governments pay for inefficient vehicles and crush them.  Pollution fees for gasoline powered vehicles in cities.  There are probably many creative ways to push the transition. 

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2290 on: April 18, 2018, 07:23:47 PM »
Quote
We have not even started to seriously replace current electrical with renewables

That would depend on how one defines "serious".

Replacing fossil fuel generation with renewable energy is a multiple step process.  The first step is to develop renewable technology and to make it affordable enough to acceptably replace fossil fuels.

Wind and solar are now the least expensive (unsubsidized) ways to produce electricity.  Globally.



The second step is awareness and fighting back against the political power of established technologies. 

That's happening in many countries and US states.  Portugal and Denmark are well along toward all renewable grids.  Some US states are approaching 50% of their electricity from renewables.  Around the world electricity production by solar and wind are accelerating.





Now, take a look back at the first graph.  Look how recently wind and solar have captured the low cost bracket.  They have 'just now' become cheap.  There will be no excuses for countries to continue to burn fossil fuels for electricity when they can save money by switching to renewables.

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2291 on: April 18, 2018, 08:57:09 PM »
For Portugal :

Quote
All of the grid-connected PV systems installed in Portugal were able to cover around 1.7% of the country’s power production in 2017, according to recent statistics released by the Portuguese grid and gas network operator, Redes Energéticas Nacionais, SGPS, S.A. (REN).

Overall, renewable energies generated enough electricity to cover 40% of power generation, including domestic demand and export.

Hydropower accounted for 11% of total demand, while wind comprised the lion’s share of renewables, accounting for 23%. Biomass was the third source at 5%, while natural gas and coal were still able to cover 60% of last year’s demand, with a share of 34% and 26%, respectively.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/01/04/pv-covered-1-6-of-portugals-power-production-in-2017/

A few days last year and the years before they were able to run on 100% renewables ( sunny and windy ) also they are connected for imports to the much larger Spain. Small country paradigms do not scale up with the same assumptions.

Again let me repeat this : if by 2040 100% of the global light transportion is EV the global oil and gas consumption will be the same as 2015 ( assuming current predicted population, GDP, efficiency, renewables grid trajectories )

Governments will have to push for more if they want a faster transition

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2292 on: April 18, 2018, 09:28:48 PM »
DrTskoul: your argument’s logical conclusion is that we should just give up, because no single problem being solved will solve all our problems. That’s why inactivists make your same argument anyway (often alternating with denying there’s even a problem).

It turns out we can solve multiple problems at once though.

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2293 on: April 18, 2018, 09:37:49 PM »
DrTskoul: your argument’s logical conclusion is that we should just give up, because no single problem being solved will solve all our problems. That’s why inactivists make your same argument anyway (often alternating with denying there’s even a problem).

It turns out we can solve multiple problems at once though.

No, my argument which spans a few comments is that we need to focus our efforts in convincing the governments to enact a massive regulation and policy direction at all levels ( carbon tax, renewable tarrifs eliminations, massive offshore wind parks, etc) instead of spending effort and good will litigating against a few big private oil and gas companies which provide with needed energy, without including giant national oil companies, coal and power companies, cement manufacturers and big Argo...

This is a big policy issue, market level and local solutions are needed but on their one will not make a dent...

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2294 on: April 18, 2018, 09:47:27 PM »
Also,  a lot of oil and gas is used for non energy fossil fuel uses which are also large. You want the big private companies have been spending a lot to develop technologies that emit less and less CO2 and are more energy efficient to deliver and deploy those technologies. There is no part of life today without those products.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2295 on: April 18, 2018, 10:47:56 PM »
Quote
We have not even started to seriously replace current electrical with renewables

That would depend on how one defines "serious".

Replacing fossil fuel generation with renewable energy is a multiple step process.  The first step is to develop renewable technology and to make it affordable enough to acceptably replace fossil fuels.

Wind and solar are now the least expensive (unsubsidized) ways to produce electricity.  Globally.



The second step is awareness and fighting back against the political power of established technologies. 

That's happening in many countries and US states.  Portugal and Denmark are well along toward all renewable grids.  Some US states are approaching 50% of their electricity from renewables.  Around the world electricity production by solar and wind are accelerating.





Now, take a look back at the first graph.  Look how recently wind and solar have captured the low cost bracket.  They have 'just now' become cheap.  There will be no excuses for countries to continue to burn fossil fuels for electricity when they can save money by switching to renewables.

These are impressive exponential growth patterns and, as with any technology breakthrough, we should expect this to continue. Costs will drop and rapid growth will continue.

Good site for looking at energy trends...

http://www.tsp-data-portal.org/Breakdown-of-Electricity-Generation-by-Energy-Source#tspQvChart

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2296 on: April 18, 2018, 10:56:02 PM »
SH: agree with a caveat:  PV and Wind are not technogy breakthroughs, with the classic “learning curve” meaning like LED lighting for consumer applications. Development and technology improvements with PV have being going on since at least the 70s, while with wind we have had a wee little longer. So the efficiency gains come mostly from cheaper production methods. Now real breakthroughs like much more efficient PV materials (e.g perovskites), PV materials printable on objects, window panes etc will be welcome, but most of the exponential growth is just penetration to more customers.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2297 on: April 18, 2018, 11:21:59 PM »
This is a big policy issue, market level and local solutions are needed but on their one will not make a dent...

OK, perhaps it's a mere language issue. Dents are small bumps. The idiom to "not make a dent" means your action will make no measurable difference. I think you mean to be arguing that dents are not enough.

Eliminating natural gas from light-duty vehicles would, indeed, not make a dent.

Eliminating gasoline from light-duty vehicles would make a definite dent: it's more than half of all gasoline used. BAU projections had it remain there, so we projected ever-growing emissions; instead, those emissions are largely going away in the next two decades thanks to new technology and deployment.

The oil industry is already seeing the effect of the new projections: it's hard to get investment for mega-expensive projects (like drilling the Arctic Ocean) when you can't be certain that there'll be any buyers at that price.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2298 on: April 18, 2018, 11:24:04 PM »
Quote
if by 2040 100% of the global light transportion is EV the global oil and gas consumption will be the same as 2015 ( assuming current predicted population, GDP, efficiency, renewables grid trajectories )

Not only light transportation but also ground freight is moving to electricity. 

We about to see the first battery powered short distance commuter aircraft flying.  It won't take a huge improvement in battery capacity for electric planes to start flying medium range distances.  Long range flight needs less than a 2x increase in battery capacity.  Solid state lithium batteries could create a 4x increase.

We are likely to see a significant drop in ocean freight.  First, oil and coal will disappear. 

Second, as less developed countries become more developed and manufacturing becomes more automated we will see less and less manufacturing taking place in low labor cost countries and manufactured goods shipped.  It will be cheaper to manufacture close to markets and avoid shipping costs.


Quote
a lot of oil and gas is used for non energy fossil fuel uses which are also large

Oil and NG use as feedstock for manufacturing is not important as long as those products are not eventually burned, sending the carbon into the atmosphere.  What can't be recycled needs to be buried.  Re-sequestered.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2299 on: April 18, 2018, 11:31:58 PM »
Quote
These are impressive exponential growth patterns and, as with any technology breakthrough, we should expect this to continue. Costs will drop and rapid growth will continue.

Technological shifts tend to follow a pattern be they moving from scrub boards to washing machines or adding machines to computers.  Slowly at fast, largely due to initial high prices along with general unfamiliarity. 



The rate then tends to quicken, interrupted at times by things like world wars, but otherwise stays at a high rate until we approach total saturation. 

There's no reason to think renewable generation and electric powered vehicles won't follow the same pattern.  Note that at the end of 2017 RE was only at the 2% level.  Typically that is not where high rates of transitioning kicks in.