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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2500 on: June 22, 2018, 01:25:37 PM »
Robotaxis alone demolish the commercial driving industry but not oil so much.

EVs alone scale up too slow for Buddy’s timeline.

Tony Seba’s thesis is that combined, the oil industry (as well as commercial driving) is dead in the short term.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2501 on: June 22, 2018, 03:22:57 PM »
Robo Taxis are a distraction when it comes to discussing the aggregate demand for oil for transportation. Fuel demand is a function of miles driven and ICEV stock.

Asking when we can we expect the vehicle demand for fuel to first peak and then to decline is the same thing as asking when we can expect the number of ICEV's to peak and then decline. The owners of those 1.25 billion ICEV'S are not going to stop driving them because they own them for a reason. To suggest that the introduction of EV Robo Taxis is going to significantly reduce vehicle miles on these 1.25 billion vehicles in any significant way is ludicrous. The persons who are buying the 80 million new ICEVs in 2018 are also buying them because they want/need them and these new cars will increase ICEV vehicle miles and the demand for fuel.

I believe the pertinent question is....

How soon can we expect to have increased EV production and sales result in the decline of ICEV vehicles on the road?

This needs to happen like now! It will happen far too slowly I fear.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2018, 04:06:32 PM by Shared Humanity »

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2502 on: June 22, 2018, 04:09:10 PM »

I believe the pertinent question is....

How soon can we expect to have EV production and sales to result in the decline of ICEV vehicles on the road?

This needs to happen like now! It will happen far too slowly I fear.
In today's speculation driven markets, Greed and Fear Rule, OK?

It is the combination of growth in renewable energy capacity plus growth in EVs ( 1 + 1 = 3 ) that surely is the potent mixture that will hit growth in demand for oil. If I am right, that could certainly visibly happen in the next 5 years.

If that coincides with even a modest downturn in global economic growth then fear will enter the market. At which point - duck (not Buddy's duck).
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zizek

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2503 on: June 22, 2018, 04:52:59 PM »
I have no idea how robotaxis are supposed to change anything? What is the argument here?
Has automation done anything other than reduce costs for the owner?


Here is the reality of robotaxis:

Investors are already salivating at the thought of zero-labour-cost ride-hailing.  Billions of dollars are being poured into autonomous vehicles.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/gauging-investment-in-self-driving-cars/

What does that mean for the transition from ICE to EVs? Well, at face value it looks great right. EVs are intrinsically better suited for automation than ICEs. So this means more demand for EVs. So far so good. But things fall apart pretty quickly:

Once automation can be implemented safely, investors are gonna go wild. They are going to sweep up every single low-cost EV vehicle. We are already seeing huge wait lists for EVs and hybrids. And we are already seeing huge fleet purchases
https://electrek.co/2017/11/20/uber-volvo-xc90/

There is absolutely no doubting that EVs will be inaccessible to the average American household until ride hailing companies will meet their fleet demands.

Well, maybe people will drive less with autonomous ride-hailing services?
Maybe. But not really

Quote
"The trends they're looking at are a result of what happened during the 2008 to 2012 recession," said Hartwig. "There was a brief dip in miles traveled during that time."Now, however, the number of drivers is rising, and new vehicle registrations are up as millennials reach their prime earning years. Young adults are no longer living with their parents or opting not to drive. "They're buying homes and living in the suburbs where you can't get an Uber or a Lyft," he added.
Hartwig went on to say that in 2013, for example, 195 million private passenger vehicles were insured and by 2014, that number was 198 million.
That figure is probably continuing to rise as millennials become an even more significant and growing part of the motoring public. "My kids are a prime example," he said. "My kids never said 'I want to Uber it.' They want cars. When people have the means, they get behind the wheel."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-americans-really-driving-less/

On the other hand, this study claims that people are less likely to purchase vehicles when using sharing services:
http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/APTA-Shared-Mobility.pdf

But here is the problem, ridesharing prices do NOT reflect their actual costs. CompaniesBURNING cash from depressing their prices to push out competitors.  Not only that, their drivers are being paid extreme poverty wages,
https://www.wired.com/2014/07/ubers-brilliant-strategy-to-make-itself-too-big-to-ban/
https://gizmodo.com/mit-study-uber-and-lyft-drivers-make-less-than-4-an-h-1823455747
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/uber-spent-10-7-billion-in-nine-years-does-it-have-enough-to-show-for-it


And here’s the kicker. Ridesharing services has increased congestion.
https://www.archdaily.com/889819/studies-show-ridesharing-services-like-uber-lyft-actually-increase-congestion-in-cities


And it gets better! Ridesharing is reducing the use of public transportation.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/wj4n8q/uber-lyft-are-making-public-transit-worse-ridesharing-cities

Oh yes, it gets even better. We’re seeing cities completely opt out of public transportation for privatized ridesharing!
https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/12/17109708/via-arlington-texas-rideshare-app-replaces-bus

And I’m sure once these private ride-hailing companies have a complete monopoly on transportation they’re going to keep costs low and play nice with regulators and policy makers.  Maybe not
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/apr/12/why-everyone-hates-uber-seven-step-playbook
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-awkward-dislike-mass-transit/


The only thing autonomous vehicles will do is add more vehicles to the road.

------


Some of the posters here need to get out of the fantasy that emissions-free technologies are magic and get to sidestep all the social, political, and economic forces which exist in our society. 



Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2504 on: June 22, 2018, 04:54:09 PM »
New study finds US oil and gas methane emissions 60 percent higher than estimated
Psy.Org June 21, 2018, University of Colorado at Boulder

Don't really need to read more, but
Quote
The U.S. oil and gas industry emits 13 million metric tons of the potent greenhouse gas methane from its operations each year, 60 percent more than estimated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, according to a new study published today in the journal Science.

Significantly, researchers found most of the emissions came from leaks, equipment malfunctions and other "abnormal" operating conditions. The climate impact of these leaks in 2015 was roughly the same as the climate impact of carbon dioxide emissions from all all U.S. coal-fired power plants operating in 2015, they found.
...
I like the typo "... from all all U.S. coal-fired power plants ..." [emphasis added]

 Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-oil-gas-methane-emissions-percent.html#jCp
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2505 on: June 22, 2018, 05:44:50 PM »
I might jump on board if a fully self-driving car appears by 2020.

Could you explain what that (assumption?) has to do with oil and gas issues (or energy use MV manufacture in general ) ?

During the transition (now), we don’t have enough EV manufacturing to satisfy demand. When the factory delivers to a taxi company, that generally replaces more oil usage in the first year than delivering a vehicle to an individual.

We can do that now (I’ve ridden in electric taxis), but robotaxis combine that advantage with an increase in taxi miles driven.

The main risk is if the taxi miles driven steal from buses or staying home rather than from private cars.

Another advantage: robotaxis work just as well with minibuses. Shifting people from private cars to minibuses reduces energy use for operations, construction, and reduces traffic which improves conditions for everyone. Even better if the minibuses are electric.

You make a good point.  Among the first people to move to EVs will be not only those most interested in cutting their personal oil use but those who drive most. Taxi companies and individual drivers will quickly understand the cost reduction of moving to battery power.  And I think of people like my sister who used to drive 50k or more a year as part of her job.

These high mileage drivers will impact oil demand well above their actual numbers.  I haven't found what seems to be solid data for taxis but have found a range of 25,000 to 70,000 (NYC) miles per year.  At 25k that's roughly double the average miles driven by individuals.  One EV going into taxi service = two ICEVs exchanged for one EV.  At 70k that's the equivalent of 5 ICEVs turned into EVs.

Uber just announced a higher pay rate for drivers using EVs.  If Uber/Lyft drivers pile up 40,000 a year (one number I found) that's like taking 3 ICEVs off the road.


Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2506 on: June 22, 2018, 05:55:48 PM »
Quote
Robo Taxis are a distraction when it comes to discussing the aggregate demand for oil for transportation. Fuel demand is a function of miles driven and ICEV stock.

By taking away the cost of a driver we open up the potential for 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, ... passenger vehicles that take a number of people quickly and efficiently from Point A to Point B.

By sizing the vehicle dispatched to the number of seats to be filled miles per vehicle can be minimized.  Right now if one gets on a city bus in San Francisco there are times when only a half dozen seats are occupied but the entire large vehicle is being used. Leave the big buses in the yard during low ridership hours.  Dispatch a four seat vehicle to take three people from Point A to Point B and another four seater to travel between Point A to Point C.

Fuel demand is determined not only miles driven but mass of the vehicle.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2507 on: June 22, 2018, 06:02:13 PM »

I believe the pertinent question is....

How soon can we expect to have EV production and sales to result in the decline of ICEV vehicles on the road?

This needs to happen like now! It will happen far too slowly I fear.
In today's speculation driven markets, Greed and Fear Rule, OK?

It is the combination of growth in renewable energy capacity plus growth in EVs ( 1 + 1 = 3 ) that surely is the potent mixture that will hit growth in demand for oil. If I am right, that could certainly visibly happen in the next 5 years.

If that coincides with even a modest downturn in global economic growth then fear will enter the market. At which point - duck (not Buddy's duck).

If you're talking about the stock value of oil companies I expect that to crash within five years.  At some investors will see peak oil coming and demand decay following.  Money will flee to other, more promising, investments.

We saw that with coal.  Stock values fell through the floor once it was clear that coal was looking at a serious decline and probable death.

Smart money should already be out of oil.  There's no growth potential and money for dividends doesn't justify risking one's capital.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2508 on: June 22, 2018, 06:12:16 PM »
New study finds US oil and gas methane emissions 60 percent higher than estimated
Psy.Org June 21, 2018, University of Colorado at Boulder

Don't really need to read more, but
Quote
The U.S. oil and gas industry emits 13 million metric tons of the potent greenhouse gas methane from its operations each year, 60 percent more than estimated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, according to a new study published today in the journal Science.

Significantly, researchers found most of the emissions came from leaks, equipment malfunctions and other "abnormal" operating conditions. The climate impact of these leaks in 2015 was roughly the same as the climate impact of carbon dioxide emissions from all all U.S. coal-fired power plants operating in 2015, they found.
...
I like the typo "... from all all U.S. coal-fired power plants ..." [emphasis added]

 Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-oil-gas-methane-emissions-percent.html#jCp

Two points:

1) Significant methane (coal gas) is released in both underground and open pit coal mining.  More is released when the coal is crushed for burning.  Using  only coal plant emissions is under counting coal's GHG output.

2)  Natural gas plants are very flexible which makes them good fill-ins for wind and solar.  Coal plants are not very flexible, making it harder to efficiently incorporate large amounts of wind and solar into a grid.

"...most of the emissions came from leaks, equipment malfunctions and other "abnormal" operating conditions"

Seems to me the common sense solution would not to keep burning coal but to adequately regulate natural gas leaks.  That was something that the Obama administration had begun but, IIRC, has been derailed by Trump.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2509 on: June 22, 2018, 08:32:54 PM »
I have no idea how robotaxis are supposed to change anything? What is the argument here?

Explain why should I bother reading your post if you’re not reading anyone else’s?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2510 on: June 22, 2018, 09:20:20 PM »
San Diegans applaud unanimous California Public Utilities Commission vote rejecting proposed SDG&E Gas Pipeline
CPUC upheld proposed decision that said the pipeline is unnecessary and inconsistent with California’s clean energy and climate objectives
Quote
June 21, 2018, San Francisco - The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) unanimously rejected SDG&E’s proposal to build the $639 Million Pipeline 3602 at its meeting this morning. The Commissioners upheld the proposed decision by CPUC Administrative Law Judge Colette Kersten on May 2.

That decision stated that SDG&E and SoCalGas “have not shown why it is necessary to build a very costly pipeline to substantially increase gas pipeline capacity in an era of declining demand and at a time when the state of California is moving away from fossil fuels.”
https://sandiego350.org/drupal/civicrm/mailing/view?reset=1&id=1112
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zizek

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2511 on: June 22, 2018, 10:02:52 PM »
I have no idea how robotaxis are supposed to change anything? What is the argument here?

Explain why should I bother reading your post if you’re not reading anyone else’s?

Nobody has provided any evidence as to why robotaxis will reduce oil demand.  That is why I am asking how robotaxis are supposed to change anything (in the time-frame required).

Just because it has a battery in it, doesn't mean it reduces emissions. The only way to reduce emissions...... is to not emit.

There is a clear trend that ride hailing companies are ADDING vehicles to the road. Not substituting or taking away.



I must remind you that these discussion are done in the context of combating climate change. We are constrained by time. It is irresponsible to support methods of combating climate change that only exist in the future, and take away from proven present day solutions. We are sacrificing public transportation for more cars. And we are making the catastrophic gamble that those cars will have batteries in the time frame required.  That's a big fucking bet.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2512 on: June 23, 2018, 12:00:33 AM »
We are sacrificing public transportation for more cars. And we are making the catastrophic gamble that those cars will have batteries in the time frame required.  That's a big fucking bet.
In a post on this thread some time back it was demonstrated that China's heavy investment in electric buses had potentally(1)reduced demand for oil by more than all the world's electrical automobile production so far. (And incidentally a major contribution to reducing air pollution in their cities). That investment continues apace.

And The Musk scorns public transport. Trouble is, to make his USD 50 billion for his Mars Attack he is probably right. Trouble is, in the West we are wedded to our personal transport, and Asia is trying to catch up.

(1) Depending on the availability of electricity generated from renewables.

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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2513 on: June 23, 2018, 12:27:06 AM »
Robotaxis will operate for many more hours of the day than owner driver cars that spend most of day parked. As such they are bound to aim to minimise fuel cost so will be electric. Don't think any ICE cars are being developed to be self driving.

If they reduce price a lot compared to taxi, they will be used more. But are most of their miles going to be replacing self owned vehicle miles or is significant proportion just going to be instead of walking, busses and other public transport? Even if it is mainly the latter, if charged on renewables the use doesn't cause demand for ff. If it takes 10 robotaxis to remove 11 ICE cars that is still a saving on manufacture and materials to make the vehicles and thus a reduction in ff demand.

It seems quite possible to me that in some countries that have not reached high levels of car ownership that 10 robotaxis only reduces ICE cars by 9 or fewer. People become more mobile at less cost and this boosts the economy causing increase in demand for other goods. People in developed countries can hardly complain or try to prevent this.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2514 on: June 23, 2018, 02:15:42 AM »
Quote
If (robotaxis) reduce price a lot compared to taxi, they will be used more. But are most of their miles going to be replacing self owned vehicle miles or is significant proportion just going to be instead of walking, busses and other public transport?

I can imagine robotaxis might decrease walking a bit.  Robos might drop people off closer to the door as opposed from walking to/from the bus stop.

Past that, I think we should stop the robotaxi vs. bus/public transportation distinction.  Taxis, the driven type, are public transportation.  The important question, to me, is whether robo-vehicles will mean more, about the same, or less congestion. 

It may be that buses, in fact, are a bad choice for moving people around cities.  They stop often and slow traffic as they pull over into a bus stop.  And then they interrupt the flow as they pull back into the lane.  Often buses are running far below full capacity.  They take longer to get to a destination due to all their stopping.  And their routes are not flexible.

Perhaps smaller capacity buses that don't stop as often would entice riders.

If more congestion then that could be controlled by adjusting rates.  Put a premium on low seat number vehicles during busy hours and use that money to cut the cost on high seat number vehicles.

I'm working on something and will come back to this a bit later.  Right now the garden calls....

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2515 on: June 23, 2018, 02:23:54 AM »
Nobody has provided any evidence as to why robotaxis will reduce oil demand.  That is why I am asking how robotaxis are supposed to change anything (in the time-frame required).

Correct. Lot's of motherhood statements. Lot's of opinionated (internal mind based) theoretical modelling about mythical future changes. Gosh "we're ven going to change our billions of miles of roadways to accommodate a second lane for robotaxis and bicycles because street parking is no longer needed (huh?) ..... robotaxis will operate 24/7 because current taxis do not (huh?) ..... this is mysticism not evidence based or or based on objective reasoning & logic of the state of the knowledge and the facts or actual changes in the world.

Nothing has changed at present regarding Motor vehicles, fuel use or robotaxis taking over the world's transportation system. 

Promoting extreme possibilities and potential other changes in the future is fine - but at least admit that's all they are ... and what they are based on - massive conjectures, huge hypotheticals, and dreamy hopeful beliefs of a miracle change in how the real world in commerce, trade, finance and politics actually operates.... and next to ZERO Evidence.

Real world.

We are modifying roads to create bike lanes.  We are removing curbside parking from some streets to increase throughflow.

No one, as far as I can recall, has said that regular taxis do not operate 24/7.  But in some neighborhoods you aren't going to get a taxi after dark, especially late at night.  Some neighborhoods don't get taxi service at all, or at least only a tiny amount.

Nothing has changed to date due to robotaxis.  Brilliant!  There aren't any to create a change. 

We've changed the way we get around cities multiple times.  Old European cities were designed for donkeys.  Old US cities for horse and wagons.  We've built subways and flyovers.  We tear down buildings in order to widen streets and create new roads/highways.

Once we have a new potential solution then it's entirely valid to start speculating about how the world might change. 


zizek

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2516 on: June 23, 2018, 02:29:40 AM »
Quote
If (robotaxis) reduce price a lot compared to taxi, they will be used more. But are most of their miles going to be replacing self owned vehicle miles or is significant proportion just going to be instead of walking, busses and other public transport?

Taxis, the driven type, are public transportation.


hmmmmm

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2517 on: June 23, 2018, 05:42:51 AM »
Look, you don't want to read posts from people who are looking for workable ways to lower fossil fuel use?  Fine.  Ignore us.

I'm sure we can stumble along on our own.  Reporting developments and thinking about where they might lead.


TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2518 on: June 23, 2018, 05:55:33 AM »
FWIW
In most venues taxi fleets vary the number of cabs on the road to accommodate the expected demand. I can't imagine that this will change.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2519 on: June 23, 2018, 06:30:15 AM »
FWIW
In most venues taxi fleets vary the number of cabs on the road to accommodate the expected demand. I can't imagine that this will change.
Terry

True.  During commute hours a maximum number should be on the road.  During the day some will stay in service while others charge and get cleaned.  Same at night.

We may see large robo-buses that operate at peak demand times but stay parked most of the time.  That could mean expensive battery powered buses lasting 20 rather than 12 years.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2520 on: June 23, 2018, 06:54:23 AM »
Since the topic of robotaxis possibly causing more congestion problems came up in this thread I'll throw this in here....

I think it may be possible to create 'express lanes' on regular city streets as soon as drivers are (largely) out of the mix.  EVs are going to be a lot better about rule following.

Imagine we take a standard four (six) lane city street where the curbside lanes are used for parking.  Remove parking since EVs can take themselves off to park somewhere else.  Turn the two (four) center lanes into no-stop lanes that run from one side of the city to the other.  No lights.  No cross street traffic.  (Probably a few overpasses.)

Here's a couple of ways it might work.  Start with the right side "Drop Off and Deliver".  Turn every other side street, one block of, into a dead end.  Cars dropping off or picking up passengers would leave the express lane, turn into the cul-de-sac and deal with riders.  Delivery trucks would use this space to stop while making deliveries along the main thoroughfare.  No UPS trucks double parking and blocking things up.




Then the left side - "Drop Off and Pass Through".  Use the curb sides to discharge and load passengers.  Keep the center lane(s) for cars passing on to other roads.  Probably alternate cul-de-sac and pass through streets.

If vehicles in the two (four) center lanes could drive at a steady ~40 MPH and no stops then we could get cars into and out of cities quickly.

Perhaps the parallel streets on each side of the expressway would be on way running the opposite direction and have a dedicated bike safety lane. 

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2521 on: June 23, 2018, 08:19:50 AM »
Thank ye, guv.

With a tug of my forelock and a bow I take my leave.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2522 on: June 23, 2018, 04:18:36 PM »
Posted on Car thread as well.

While we all wait patiently for Robotaxis to save us, I thought it may be useful to review some hard data.

The number of EV's worldwide (personal transport only) grew by over 50% in 2017, from 1.9 to 3.1 million.

https://www.metering.com/industry-sectors/smart-energy/global-ev-market-share/

We should expect that the growth of EV's will continue to expand exponentially. Definitely great news.

While I could not find a total for 2017, there were 947 million personal transport vehicles on the road in 2015...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281134/number-of-vehicles-in-use-worldwide/

...and sales were 88.1 million in 2016 and 81 million in 2017 for a total of 1.136 billion on the road worldwide. EV's now comprise .0000002% of the total. It would be safe to say that EV's currently are having a negligible impact on the demand for fossil fuels. I have chosen to disregard the impact of future Robotaxi implementation in this comment (sorry guys) as the question is EV or ICEV Robotaxi, not Robotaxi IMHO.

Since aggregate fossil fuel demand is a function of not only the number of ICEV's but also miles driven per vehicle, I've tried to capture data here as well but it has been more difficult to find. As I dug to find this info, it occurred to me that we may just want to look at total miles driven. This of course does not account for improvements in mpg. The growth in total miles driven in the U.S. has slowed since 2008 although it has been climbing since 2015.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M12MTVUSM227NFWA

I cannot find comparable statistics for worldwide miles driven and this is an important missing piece of data as we cannot assume driving patterns are similar across the planet. While China has topped the 300 million mark for total vehicles on the road...

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2088876/chinas-more-300-million-vehicles-drive-pollution-congestion

...the U.S. still leads in vehicle miles driven. Apparently, we love our cars more than the Chinese.

 https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1091470_u-s-to-stay-global-first-in-vehicle-miles-driven-says-futurist


While it would take far more digging to get at the trends in worldwide fossil fuel demand for personal transport, there are a few conclusions I can make.

1. EV's have yet to make a significant impact on fuel demand.
2. Robotaxis are an annoying distraction.
3. It sucks to be Chinese. (see photo)

Edit: The road on the left on the attached photo is available only to high ranking party officials. (No. Just kidding. I have no idea what it is for.)
« Last Edit: June 23, 2018, 04:54:55 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2523 on: June 23, 2018, 04:35:36 PM »
TOTAL CO2 SAVED BY TESLA VEHICLES

3,546,860.77 tons, as of a few seconds ago.

Continuously updated here:  https://www.tesla.com/carbonimpact
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2524 on: June 23, 2018, 04:49:33 PM »
While fuel for vehicle transport is the single biggest use of a barrel of oil, (46% for gasoline alone), we should not lose sight of the fact that there are a lot of other products produced from a barrel of oil.

https://www.innovativewealth.com/inflation-monitor/what-products-made-from-petroleum-outside-of-gasoline/

Given this list of products, can we ever expect to see oil demand drop to zero? I am having a problem with the list. Where do fertilizers and pesticides fall? Is that all in feedstocks?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2525 on: June 23, 2018, 05:08:36 PM »
..
Given this list of products, can we ever expect to see oil demand drop to zero?  ...

It may be hard to imagine, now, but it is likely that, as with whale oil, tallow, and coal, we will eventually find replacements, as we learn new reasons, and new ways, to better respect the environment.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2526 on: June 23, 2018, 05:19:49 PM »
While fuel for vehicle transport is the single biggest use of a barrel of oil, (46% for gasoline alone), we should not lose sight of the fact that there are a lot of other products produced from a barrel of oil.

https://www.innovativewealth.com/inflation-monitor/what-products-made-from-petroleum-outside-of-gasoline/

Given this list of products, can we ever expect to see oil demand drop to zero? I am having a problem with the list. Where do fertilizers and pesticides fall? Is that all in feedstocks?

I'd like to see how many of the products on the 'made with oil' list are now made with other materials as well.

Golf bags, tool boxes - obviously there are options.

Movie film - pretty much extinct.

Much of the list is about plastic.  We have plastics manufactured from plant materials.  I don't know how close we are to having replacements for all oil-derived plastics.

We may continue to use some amount of oil as feedstock.  That's not a concern re: climate change as long as we recycle or bury the products when we're done with them.  Just don't burn them and put the oil-carbon into the atmosphere.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2527 on: June 23, 2018, 05:29:08 PM »
Bob - Do you know if a barrel of oil can be refined to produce the types of products in demand? Is there some flexibility in the ratio? Not a chemist or engineer so I am not clear if the oil product itself determines the final products.

This probably belongs in the stupid questions thread.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2528 on: June 23, 2018, 05:45:39 PM »
Bob - Do you know if a barrel of oil can be refined to produce the types of products in demand? Is there some flexibility in the ratio? Not a chemist or engineer so I am not clear if the oil product itself determines the final products.


I don't know much about refining oil but did know that there's some flexibility in the gasoline/diesel ratios that can be produced from a barrel of oil.  In checking I found a good comment on another site -

Quote
I work in the oil industry currently, but in the R&D sector, not in refining itself. Maybe I can contribute something anyway.

As superradish said, the entire process of refining a crude is ridiculously complicated and there are several "classes" of refineries currently operating in the world. The simplest of these are called hydroskimming refineries, which do little more than separate the crude into fractions based on boiling points(atmospheric distillation, vacuum distillation). The more complex refineries built incorporate chemical processes (Fluidized catalytic cracking, Hydrocracking, Hydrodesulfurization, etc.) which can break larger molecules present in the crude into smaller molecules to form a "lighter" cut which is then reblended with starting crude, as an example, or sent to another distillation tower to be further fractionated. This is just the tip of the iceberg.

To answer your question, it depends. The first factor to consider, as you mentioned, is crude quality. Crudes are characterized by macro qualities, such as density, sulfur content, boiling range, etc., since there isn't really a fast way to characterize them in terms of molecular structures. A single crude can contain thousands of different molecules in exceedingly small concentrations - even if we were to characterize all of the molecules in a single crude, it would be of limited value on the refining end when compared to knowing things like its boiling range. Anyway - crude quality. The lighter the crude, the more expensive it typically is on the market because it flows better, can be converted into the fuels you mentioned such as gasoline, etc., because those are lighter, more valuable blends. Heavier crudes require much more processing, from hydrocracking to hydrodesulfurization, typically involve expensive catalysts, etc., and you get a much larger mass% of heavy-end products, which sell for stupid cheap and are a hassle to blend into anything or dispose of. So the range of products you can make partly depends on these things.

Another thing refineries have to consider is what they're built to do. A simple refinery with an atmos distillation tower and a vacuum distillation tower won't be able to convert very heavy fractions because it simply doesn't have the capacity to do so. Refineries are expensive, and adding units to them simply to convert one, two, or even a handful of crudes, is typically not something companies consider unless that refinery is underwater already.

Finally, petrol, diesel, jet fuel, bunker fuel, fuel oil - all of these are blends. They aren't one "product" that comes out of one unit of a refinery, but are usually instead blends of a handful or more individual refinery streams which then make up the end product. So not only can refineries convert a particular fraction of a crude into something different or lighter or more aromatic or less aromatic, but they can then pick and choose from the streams they manufacture in order to meet the spec of the final products that are currently selling on the market, or sell to a distributor who can pick and choose from the streams of several refineries in their geographical area.

So yes, from the conversion aspect all the way to the blending aspect, there is a huge degree of control over what comes out of a refinery in theory. But on paper, when management is deciding whether a particular crude is worth buying or not, a refinery has to take a whole lot of things into consideration before committing and, even though they might be able to process it in theory, side products or cost of processing might make it economically prohibitive to do so.

https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/3asw41/when_refining_crude_oil_can_we_choose_the_ratio/

I wonder if we can turn all, or almost all, of a barrel into industrial feedstock and asphalt.  Or if there are parts of a barrel that have no use other than fuel and we'd either have to burn with carbon capture or pour back into the well.

And I just found this -

Quote
The asphalt that forms our roads can be modified to store carbon and help reduce the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere, new research as found.

A team from Rice University in the US has used asphalt, or bitumen, to make a cheap porous material that can store an impressive 114 percent of its weight in carbon dioxide.

Known as asphalt-porous carbon (A-PC), the new material stores the carbon dioxide like a sponge at room temperature, but lets other gasses, such as methane flow through freely.

This means it’s an ideal material to use as a filter in natural gas wellheads, which currently release a lot of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in addition to the desired methane. The captured CO2 could later be extracted for other practical purposes, and the study shows that the material can store and then release CO2 over and over again without degrading.

"This provides an ultra-inexpensive route to a high-value material for the capture of carbon dioxide from natural gas streams," said chemist James Tour, who led the research, in a press release. "Not only did we increase its capacity, we lowered the price substantially."

The team made several variation of the material, which is made by mixing asphalt with potassium hydroxide at a high temperature, but the cheapest cost was just 30 cents per pound (~0.4 kg).

https://www.sciencealert.com/cheap-asphalt-that-can-suck-up-carbon-dioxide-has-been-created

If that holds up in the real world then that's a great discovery.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2529 on: June 23, 2018, 06:00:00 PM »
Thanks Bob.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2530 on: June 23, 2018, 06:17:21 PM »
Bob - Do you know if a barrel of oil can be refined to produce the types of products in demand? Is there some flexibility in the ratio? Not a chemist or engineer so I am not clear if the oil product itself determines the final products.

This probably belongs in the stupid questions thread.

It influences, but does not determine them. Some products are practically impossible to make from some feedstocks, but there's quite a bit of flexibility.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2531 on: June 23, 2018, 06:45:08 PM »
I wonder if low quality (tar sands) oil might be more desirable in the future if our major need from petroleum is asphalt? 

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2532 on: June 23, 2018, 08:09:27 PM »
Oil and gas for combustion is about 90-95% of he total. We can deal with that 5-10% when it becomes a more important fraction; for now it’s a diversion.

For many uses, there’s alternatives already: plastics from renewable feedstocks, or switch to wood, paper, or metal.

A larger problem than plastics is fuel for aviation and shipping. We don’t have scalable alternatives there yet.

As for the effect, a 10% reduction in demand is enough to crash the price. We are deploying tech that reduces oil use by about 80% and is basically unstoppable now because of the economics (though deployment isn’t as fast as we’d like). That’s why oil investment is so risky: market participants know they’re only in it for the short term, hoping there’s a bigger fool around the corner.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2533 on: June 23, 2018, 08:10:29 PM »
Here’s what the EIA says about the different petroleum products that go into plastics.

Quote
Although crude oil is a source of raw material (feedstock) for making plastics, it is not the major source of feedstock for plastics production in the United States. Plastics are produced from natural gas, feedstocks derived from natural gas processing, and feedstocks derived from crude oil refining. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is unable to determine the specific amounts or origin of the feedstocks that are actually used to manufacture plastics in the United States.

Petrochemical feedstock naphtha and other oils refined from crude oil are used as feedstocks for petrochemical crackers that produce the basic building blocks for making plastics. EIA data can only identify those oil-derived feedstocks specifically designated as petrochemical feedstock by petroleum refineries in EIA’s refining surveys, which break out into Naphtha For Petrochemical Feedstock Use and Other Oils For Petrochemical Feedstock Use. However, the petrochemical industry also consumes large quantities of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL), which may be produced by petroleum refineries or natural gas processing plants.

In 2017, 86% of the HGL produced in the United States were byproducts of natural gas processing, and the remaining 14% were from crude oil refineries. The HGL produced by U.S. petroleum refineries contain both alkanes and olefins. Alkanes can be used as feedstock for petrochemical crackers, whereas refinery olefins, primarily propylene, but also minor quantities of ethylene and butylenes, can be used as direct inputs into plastics manufacturing. Because the petrochemical industry has a high degree of flexibility in the feedstock it consumes and because EIA does not collect detailed data on this aspect of industrial consumption, it is not possible for EIA to identify the actual amounts and origin of the materials used as inputs by industry to manufacture plastics.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=34&t=6
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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2534 on: June 24, 2018, 08:12:15 AM »
For those wondering, the traffic jam is of course in the toll plaza, and has been dubbed "Carmageddon" after hundreds of millions of Chinese came back from a holiday weekend.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/carmageddon-50lane-traffic-jam-in-china-causes-chaos-20151009-gk4tq9.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/11919370/Worlds-worst-traffic-jam-Thousands-of-cars-left-stranded-on-motorway-in-China.html
Apologies for the OT diversion, but I was bothered by the mystery. It does suck to be a Chinese driver.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2535 on: June 24, 2018, 08:15:14 AM »
There's an immediate downsizing from 50 lanes to 20 lanes.

50 lanes!  What's the largest number of lanes in the US and Europe?

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2536 on: June 24, 2018, 09:48:47 PM »
”When externalities are included, as in a 2015 study by the International Monetary Fund, the unpaid costs of fossil fuels are upward of $5.3 trillion annually – which works out to a staggering $10 million per minute.”

Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Overview
http://priceofoil.org/fossil-fuel-subsidies/
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2537 on: June 25, 2018, 03:30:56 PM »
XOM will be another "casualty" of getting kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial's.  GE was just kicked out ..... and XOM will find the same fate WITHIN 18 - 24 months MAX (and so will IBM .... for different reasons obviously ... late to the cloud).

But XOM has sealed their fate by being a poor operator, late to shale, and late to figure out the oil industry has now become the "energy industry."  They have made all the wrong moves....
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2538 on: June 25, 2018, 10:20:01 PM »
The shutdown of a key oil-sands facility in Canada is flipping the global oil market on its head and slamming shares of producers that depend on the plant.

Oil-Sands Outage Upends Global Oil Market, Overshadowing OPEC
Quote
Just as OPEC and allied producers agreed to pour more oil into global markets, a transformer blast first reported by Bloomberg News last week cut power to Alberta’s giant Syncrude plant, which turns heavy crude into synthetic light oil for U.S. markets.

As less oil flows from up north, traders are paying a record premium for crude at America’s biggest distribution hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. Globally, the gap between Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate is narrowing rapidly after widening for months. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. called the shutdown the most dramatic event in the oil market last week, as opposed to OPEC’s meeting in Vienna. Shares of Suncor Energy Inc., which controls the plant, plunged the most in more than two years.

“Syncrude is very important. It’s one of the longest-standing and longest-lifespan systems going,” said Tim Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Auspice Capital Advisors. “So having those barrels off, which are considered base barrels for the system, is fairly impactful.’’

The 350,000-barrel-a-day facility, one of the biggest of its kind in the world, is going to be out of commission until the end of July, the company said.

The expected shortfall in supplies follows five straight weeks of shrinking inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI contracts. The price for the U.S. benchmark for immediate delivery at the hub, which is typically equal to futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange or just a few cents different, surged to an unprecedented $5.75 a barrel more on Monday.

The disruption is helping set the U.S. apart from the rest of the world and intensifying a U-turn in the dynamics of the global market.

While Saudi Arabia’s push to make sure OPEC boosts supplies by close to 1 million barrels a day is strongly weighing down on Brent crude futures in London, the shortage in Canada is supporting U.S. prices. That’s helping narrow the gap between the two benchmarks, reversing months of widening when the focus was on record production from shale fields. It has global implications because the premium helps buyers around the world decide whether to ship crude from the U.S. or elsewhere.

Brent was trading at little more than $7 dollars above WTI on Monday, compared with almost $12 just two weeks ago. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/oil-sands-outage-upends-global-oil-market-overshadowing-opec
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2539 on: June 26, 2018, 08:15:30 PM »
Trump Trade Threats Turn Exxon and Chevron From Backers to Critics
Quote
The U.S. oil industry, including Exxon and Chevron, were supportive of Trump’s tax-reform at the end of last year, saying it would boost growth in on-shore shale production as well as in building midstream and downstream infrastructure such as pipelines and chemical plants, mainly along the Gulf coast. But the administration’s tough-talk on steel and free trade have damped their enthusiasm for Trump’s agenda.

‘Less Attractive’

“Early on with tax reform, the deregulation you’ve seen in the US, those have enhanced the projects were were looking to do for our company,” Exxon’s Woods said. They “are steel intensive projects. When tariffs come on and with threats of a trade war, you risk making those projects less competitive and less attractive.”

Steel, heavily used by the oil industry, has been a flashpoint between the Trump administration and China, with levies and counter-levies contributing to mounting concerns of a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-26/trump-trade-threats-turn-exxon-chevron-from-backers-to-critics
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2540 on: June 27, 2018, 01:23:54 PM »
Shell has Admitted Climate Change Could Affect the Company's Bottom Line
Quote
Shell has finally admitted climate change could dramatically impact the company’s bottom line — and soon.

The company’s annual report 2018 acknowledges the impact of divestment campaign for the first time and  should be seen as a clear warning to investors that the age of fossil fuels is coming to an end, according to campaigners with 350.org.

The report - just out - identifies divestment and climate litigation as material risks to the company’s profits. It says:

“Rising climate change concerns have led and could lead to additional legal and/or regulatory measures which could result in project delays or cancellations, a decrease in demand for fossil fuels, potential litigation and additional compliance obligations.”

The report specifically identifies fossil fuel divestment campaign as a material risk. “Additionally, some groups are pressuring certain investors to divest their investments in fossil fuel companies. If this were to continue, it could have a material adverse effect on the price of our securities and our ability to access equity capital markets.” ...
https://www.desmog.co.uk/2018/06/25/shell
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2541 on: July 01, 2018, 10:15:29 PM »
Here's an article about Sears below.  What THE HELL is Buddy doing posting an article about Sears .... once a retailing giant ...... in the Oil, Oil, Oil thread?  :o

Long declines in companies look a LOT alike.  They are LONG AND PROTRACTED.  A company makes a big cut initially thinking "OK .... we've right sized now."  Only to find out that they have to keep cutting and cutting.

THAT....is the future that awaits ExxonMobil.  A LONG PROTRACTED DECLINE.  And it has already started ..... even though many of those still holding the stock don't think so.

So while natural gas may soften the blow to oil and gas companies like Exxon and others .... it won't save them.  They have a VERY, VERY, LONG downfall in front of them ..... likely to be slower and more painful than the holders of their stock are ready for.

Sears missed the change in the retailing market, just like ExxonMobil has missed the change in the energy and transportation markets.

Quote
Sears is having a tough year.

The department store chain was once the largest retailer in the United States, but has  cut its store count in half in the last five years.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/sears-is-closing-78-more-stores-here-are-all-of-the-locations-shutting-down-where-you-live/ss-AAvOGrq?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2542 on: July 06, 2018, 03:11:28 PM »
Doubts Grow Aramco IPO Will Ever Happen

Quote
Preparations for the public listing of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, a centerpiece of the government’s plan to open its economy, have stalled, leaving government officials and people close to the process doubting that it will go forward at all.

The initial public offering of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., better known as Aramco, was meant to be the cornerstone of the kingdom’s plan to be less reliant on oil. It would create the largest public company in the history of capital markets, an opportunity coveted by Wall Street’s biggest names.

Yet doubts have crystallized in recent months, after two years of work to prepare Aramco for its debut. Saudi officials and people close to the process say the company and the country simply aren’t ready for an IPO that could raise $100 billion but also bring unprecedented scrutiny to the kingdom’s crown jewel.

“Everyone is almost certain it is not going to happen,” said a senior executive at Aramco, speaking of the IPO.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/doubts-grow-aramco-ipo-ever-184200800.html

A couple of things to keep in mind about the oil market:

1)  The commodity of oil .... means that someone has to ACTUALLY TAKE DELIVERY of the product.  So the "commodity" of oil ..... is different from the EQUITY OF OIL COMPANIES.

2)  There is no "cost" to store your shares of XOM the oil company.  There is significant costs to STORING THE COMMIDITY OF OIL.

3) With Saudi Aramco's IPO now in doubt .... that is likely to have some effect on the PSYCHOLOGY OF OIL STOCK HOLDERS.

4)  There has been significant "divestiture" of OIL STOCKS over the last 5 - 10 years.  So those holders and potential buyers of the oil stocks ..... are no longer there to support the price.  In other words ..... part of the DEMAND for oil STOCKS has gone away.  So while we have NOT yet reached "peak demand" for the COMMODITY OF OIL.  We have almost certainly past the point of "peak demand" FOR OIL STOCKS (equity).

This is going to be a LONG AND PAINFUL RIDE for equity holders......

 



« Last Edit: July 06, 2018, 03:39:06 PM by Buddy »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2543 on: July 07, 2018, 02:19:47 AM »
But higher oil prices will drive more people to EVs....

There Are Fears About an Oil Spike Above $150
- Shareholders will come to lament underinvestment: Bernstein
- Prices could surge past 2008 highs if new reserves not found
Quote
The oversupply of crude globally in recent years has masked “chronic underinvestment,” Bernstein said in the report. Oil [price] has rebounded to the highest in more than three years as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies started curbing output at the beginning of last year to trim a global glut. The producers aim now to pump more to help cool the market, but disruptions from Libya to Venezuela are keeping prices elevated.

Proven reserves of the world’s top oil companies have fallen by more than 30 percent on average since 2000, with only Exxon and BP showing an improvement, helped by acquisitions, Bernstein said. Meanwhile, more than 1 billion people will urbanize in Asia over the next two decades and this will drive demand for cars, as well as air travel, road freight and plastics that also require oil, according to Bernstein. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-07-06/oil-spike-above-150-feared-as-investors-demand-cash-over-growth
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2544 on: July 07, 2018, 11:58:51 AM »

But mass production sales of EVs will drive a collapse in Oil Prices back to near $10 a barrel.
At which point cost of production (let alone distribution etc) exceeds revenue. At the extreme, if sustained, oil producers exhaust cash reserves (if they have any), bankrupt a few banks (who let them borrow too much), go bust and take the shareholders down with them. Oh, and a few Countries in politically unstable parts of the world collapse into anarchy.

I wonder how many oil majors and oil producing countries are doing any real contingency planning for a sustained drop in demand for the black stuff.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2545 on: July 07, 2018, 03:17:36 PM »
Even though it was a joke ... comparing a rise of $70 to a drop of $70 .... hyperbole abounds.

Quote
It's no secret that many major energy companies have already announced a range of cut backs in high-cost countries. On the other side of the coin, Saudia Arabia and Kuwait can pump a barrel of oil for less than $10, on average. Iraq can produce oil for about $10.70 per barrel.Nov 24, 2015


Businesses and banks go bankrupt and fold all the time.


There is a break-even price for a company, and there is a break-even price for a country (that needs oil and gas royalties to balance the budget)

"The break-even is a measure of the crude price needed to meet spending plans and balance the budget." (Bloomberg)

Some countries have cut Government spending to get that break-even price down (see attached graph).

BUT
"None of the producers have yet created economies that will support their population “once hydrocarbon resources are exhausted,” the IMF said. (Or when depressed demand sends the price of crude down).

When Governments go bust the consequences are somewhat more profound than when a company or bank goes bust. (E.g. Venezuela).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-31/saudi-arabia-leads-gulf-nations-in-cutting-break-even-oil-price
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2546 on: July 07, 2018, 06:20:47 PM »

I wonder how many oil majors and oil producing countries are doing any real contingency planning for a sustained drop in demand for the black stuff.

A sustained drop is not in our near term future.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/06/19/peak-oil-demand-is-millions-of-barrels-away/#12b8e32d6940

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2547 on: July 07, 2018, 07:38:21 PM »
But higher oil prices will drive more people to EVs....

There Are Fears About an Oil Spike Above $150
- Shareholders will come to lament underinvestment: Bernstein
- Prices could surge past 2008 highs if new reserves not found
Quote

An interesting difference between the next oil price spike (I suppose it is inevitable...) is that there are alternatives to oil and gas that were not available in 2008 or the earlier spikes. Of course these alternatives are not fully developed yet. However, every year that passes before the next price shock will be an extra year for options such as EVs, personal PV generation, battery storage etc to become better developed.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2548 on: July 07, 2018, 10:21:01 PM »
If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz the price can go up fast.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2549 on: July 07, 2018, 10:52:46 PM »
Let's not over look the fact that Saudi Arabia is planning a big IPO for a piece of their state owned oil company ARAMCO which is directly impacted by the price of oil. The Saudi's need the price as high as possible to get the financial markets to give them billions for a small 5% minority stake.
The Saudi Arabian Oil Company, better known as Aramco, claims about 261 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves. At $70 a barrel, the value rises to more than $18 trillion.
A proposed IPO of 5% of the company would value the publicly traded slice at more than $900 billion at today’s prices and leapfrog Aramco to a position as the most valuable publicly traded company in the world.
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