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Author Topic: Oil and Gas Issues  (Read 408774 times)

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2900 on: January 01, 2019, 10:10:32 PM »
Quote
a swift buildout of electric generation/distribution
Terry, this is somewhat OT here, but:
As EV charging is rather flexible, it can be timed to match available grid capacity, whether during low demand periods or high intermittent supply.
Even the most optimistic scenario cannot switch transportation to fully electric in less than two decades. That is not so very rapid in terms of grid growth.
The dropping price of renewable generation means the cost may not be as prohibitive as you think.
HSR can and should be subsidized taking account of its environmental advantage over other forms of transport.
But even if the EV vision does come to pass ( I hope it does), and all your concerns above come to fruition (I hope they don't), I think the outcome will be far better to the climate and the environment than the alternative of continued petrol-based transportation, with its associated emissions and the vast oil exploration production and refining infrastructure behind it.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2901 on: January 02, 2019, 01:39:21 AM »
As far as I understood, Seneca Cliff is related to peak extraction, not to peak demand. (SNIP)

The Seneca cliff refers to complexity. The theory comes from observations of how complex societies collapse- very quickly.
IMHO, Ugo Bardi's theory is incomplete and to better illustrate how systems collapse and then regenerate, Panarchy works better. Panarchy goes on to describe how after the collapse, the system is more simple and that gradually more possibilities appear, then there comes a time when these multiple potentials collapse into fewer paths, then the chosen path gradually builds more complexity until the next collapse.
So, Seneca's cliff can refer to both peak supply and demand.
I suppose I should supply links, so at the risk of going OT, here Bardi's explanation:
http://thesenecatrap.blogspot.com/
And my favourite Panarchy scholar's poetic explanation of Panarchy:
http://www.sympoetic.net/Managing_Complexity/panarchy.html

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2902 on: January 02, 2019, 08:54:49 PM »
As EV charging is rather flexible, it can be timed to match available grid capacity, whether during low demand periods or high intermittent supply.
Even the most optimistic scenario cannot switch transportation to fully electric in less than two decades. That is not so very rapid in terms of grid growth.
The dropping price of renewable generation means the cost may not be as prohibitive as you think.
HSR can and should be subsidized taking account of its environmental advantage over other forms of transport.
But even if the EV vision does come to pass ( I hope it does), and all your concerns above come to fruition (I hope they don't), I think the outcome will be far better to the climate and the environment than the alternative of continued petrol-based transportation, with its associated emissions and the vast oil exploration production and refining infrastructure behind it.
Still out of topic. If EV really become a mature technology, I don't think that it would take 2 decades to change all the cars into EV because ICE cars only have a life span of maximum 15 years and once EV are mature, there is no reason to produce ICE vehicles, and once more than 50% of vehicles are EV, it might get difficult to find a gasoline station.

What is sure is that EV can stabilize the electricity grid using the V2G technology, so this will be a great opportunity for all the base load electricity producers, but will make it complicated on days were the demand stays all the time very high (for example a hot and cloudy summer day, or a very cold winter night). I guess we'll keep some diesel and gasoline generators for these days.

I haven't been able to find out what HSR means.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2903 on: January 02, 2019, 08:57:28 PM »
HSR = High Speed Rail
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2904 on: January 02, 2019, 09:06:57 PM »
So, Seneca's cliff can refer to both peak supply and demand.
Well, I don't belive in demand collapse. I had a discussion 2 days ago with a friend about a heater he produces and told him that pellets are very nice, but that I didn't understood why he didn't create also a log version. The answer was very simple : energy density. So I told him that coal is even better but we agreed that it stinks (the smell as well as the concept).
Regarding energy density, petrol has the best ratio between energy density and ease to use, so I can't imagine that we wouldn't use it as much as we can, and it's why we need CO2 taxes to make it financially less interesting.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2905 on: January 04, 2019, 09:47:57 PM »
“This is a very old and very polluting power plant that should have been shut down quite a while ago. It’s a reminder that New York needs to accelerate efforts to phase out fossil fuels.”

Power Plant Accident Casts New Light On New York’s Dirty Fuel Addiction
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/transformer-explosion-nyc-fuel-addiction_us_5c25c357e4b0407e9081305a
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2906 on: January 07, 2019, 06:59:15 PM »
Lack of sufficient pipelines and processing facilities in the U.S.  —>  WTI glut  —> Low oil price  —>  plummeting stock price for some U.S. oil drillers

Why These U.S. Oil Drillers All Fell More Than 20% in December
Quote
The oil number that most people see quoted is the global oil benchmark Brent Crude, which fell around 20% for the year. However, Range, SandRidge, and Denbury are all U.S.-focused drillers, so a key benchmark for them is West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a measure of U.S. oil prices. That figure fell even further than Brent in 2018. The reason for the difference between the two oil benchmarks is all about supply and demand, but with a slightly different twist: It's being driven by infrastructure.

U.S. oil and natural gas production has increased rapidly in recent years, and there simply isn't enough infrastructure to move and process it. Building the needed pipelines and processing facilities is a huge opportunity, and these assets are slowly getting built -- but that doesn't help move the fuels today. With more oil and gas than capacity to process it, there is a supply glut of these fuels in key producing regions. Too much oil and gas and no way to move it has, not surprisingly, resulted in a weak pricing environment. This is a major headwind for U.S.-focused drillers over and above the larger global energy landscape. Range, SandRidge, and Denbury are all impacted by this second-layer energy issue specific to the U.S. market. ...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/01/07/why-these-us-oil-drillers-all-fell-december.aspx
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2907 on: January 09, 2019, 06:44:28 PM »
I found this in the  press :
Trump Administration Works Overtime to Make Sure Shutdown Doesn’t Stop Oil Drilling
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/trump-is-giving-oil-industry-a-bye-in-shutdown-critics-allege

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2908 on: January 09, 2019, 06:55:34 PM »
I found this in the  press :
Trump Administration Works Overtime to Make Sure Shutdown Doesn’t Stop Oil Drilling
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/trump-is-giving-oil-industry-a-bye-in-shutdown-critics-allege

I’m sure he would turn off the sun to make a negative point about solar, if he could.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2909 on: January 10, 2019, 09:05:50 PM »
U.S. Supreme Court issues ‘crushing blow’ to Exxon in major climate case, legal experts say
Quote
The Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal from ExxonMobil regarding Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey’s climate change investigation Monday, a decision legal experts called a “crushing blow” to the oil giant. The Court’s decision could have implications beyond the state of Massachusetts as Exxon is forced to hand over documents detailing what it knew about climate change and when.

After the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled last April that the company must turn over documents requested by Healey, Exxon asked the Supreme Court to intervene, arguing Healey lacked jurisdiction to even bring the investigation.

“Today’s decision means Exxon is out of options and out of time in its fight to keep these documents from public light,” Carroll Muffett, president and chief executive of the Center for International Environmental Law, told ThinkProgress. ...
https://thinkprogress.org/supreme-court-issues-crushing-blow-to-exxon-in-major-climate-case-legal-experts-say-ae18891e3625/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2910 on: January 12, 2019, 08:44:08 PM »
“My overarching concern right now is the economic development. Tesla put 150,000 new Model 3s on the market. That’s 150,000 cars that don’t consume gasoline. And it’s not just Tesla.  Porsche, Audi, and BMW are all coming out with all-electric vehicles in 2019. So the inelasticities of demand in this market are fundamentally changing.”

The Tesla Model 3's effect on the oil industry gets recognized by Wall St veteran
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-2018-sales-ev-revolution-oil-analyst/
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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2911 on: January 13, 2019, 12:05:16 AM »
 Currently the actual effect is negligible. However, the fear factor might be there, and is justified. Long term investments in oil fields and infrastructure are becoming extremely risky, and a payback period longer than a decade should be out of the question. Arctic drilling, with its long time to develop and bring to market, should be cancelled for purely economic reasons by any rational investor.
Hopefully, the EV fear will be widespread soon. Perhaps the magic year 2020 with all its new EVs coming up from the major car makers will drive the point home, and all new oil investment will cease.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2912 on: January 15, 2019, 10:34:00 PM »
Hopefully, the EV fear will be widespread soon. Perhaps the magic year 2020 with all its new EVs coming up from the major car makers will drive the point home, and all new oil investment will cease.

That would be a wonderful thing!

The vast majority of Chinese car sales are net new, i.e. not replacing an older car, but the demonstration effect of the rapid growth of EV share there may have the required effect - both on all car manufacturers (and therefore on the mostly replacement car markets in the US and Europe) and on the forecasts for oil demand. By 2020 the future could look very different.

With oil supply being relatively inelastic, forecast drops in demand may also be accompanied with forecast drops in price. The most immediate big losers will be the Tar Sands, then deep sea, then fracking (although I wonder if the frackers will pump as fast as possible to meet operating costs while the market is still there). The Middle East elites will keep pumping their oil so that they can keep bribing and disciplining their populations not to overthrow them.

In the immediate period a global recession will also dump oil demand,and prices, as well of course. Then EV's come along to kill any increase as economies recover in the 2020s. A nice dream ...

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2913 on: Today at 01:37:25 AM »
U.S. forces employees to work on oil-drilling land sales during Trump government shutdown 
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2019/01/us-forces-employees-to-work-on-oil.html

Quote
(CNN) – The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is bringing back employees who were furloughed to work on sales of land for oil and gas drilling purposes in the Gulf of Mexico, according to an updated Department of Interior shutdown plan.

 ...  "Donald Trump may have closed the government to the American people, but he's hung up an 'open for business' sign for corporate polluters," Brune said in a statement. "During his shameful government shutdown, Trump is showing us his backwards vision for our country: a government that prioritizes fossil fuel industry profits at all costs, while American families are left out in the cold." 
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