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Archimid

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3000 on: June 07, 2019, 11:54:59 PM »
GE bet on fossil fuels, lost nearly $200B in misjudging renewable energy transition, study says

https://electrek.co/2019/06/06/ge-renewable-energy-transition/

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General Electric’s profitability collapse over the past few years can be largely attributed to the company’s inability to judge the accelerating pace of the global energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewables, a new study claims.
 
The analysis comes from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), which says that “GE made a massive bet on the future of natural gas and thermal coal, and lost,” concluding:

GE destroyed an almost unprecedented US$193 billion (bn)1 or 74% of its market capitalization over 2016-2018.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3001 on: June 08, 2019, 05:28:40 PM »
U.S. oil prices drop, marking their entry into a bear market
I occasionally look at Bloomberg charts on Crude and Gold.

At the moment they are very much Trumpometers. Attached is Year to Date

Crude went up and up - Venezuela, Libya Iran - mostly to do with Trump's tweets and sanctions on Iran. Fear of restricted supplies.
Now its gone down. Mostly due to Trump's tariff tweets and actions _ China, Mexico. Fear of reduced demand.

Gold- there are gold bugs that hold gold just because... But the recent rise is definitely fear driven, the rush to safe havens.

Add to that the realisation by Bloomberg, amongst others, that the sugar rush from Trump's tax cuts has evaporated, the Fed making signals about rate cuts, the prospects for the US and World  suddenly look not so good. If Trump continues to shaft China nd Mexico with more grief, then....

And Iran ...........

Methinks most Oil and Gas investors, being short to medium-term, will not be looking at renewables at all while making their decisions during this time of uncertainty.
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3002 on: June 08, 2019, 05:54:00 PM »
Bitcoin: Moon!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3003 on: June 09, 2019, 05:34:52 PM »
“The oil market, showing characteristics typical of an equity market, is already starting to reflect the potential for a surplus in 2020. Despite a tight physical market due to Russia’s pipeline contamination crisis and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, oil prices briefly dipped below $60 last week, down more than 20 percent from a high above $75 in late April.”

Bulls beware: The 2020 oil market is quickly turning ugly - Bloomberg
Quote
Oil bulls thought 2020 would be their year.

After half a decade of lower spending on new projects, oil production growth was supposed to slow to a trickle just as demand was supercharged by a once-in-a-generation shake up in the shipping fuel market. Many market commentators predicted that if $100 a barrel-oil was going to make a come back, it would happen in 2020.

Excitement is fading fast. The first official assessment of 2020 comes from the International Energy Agency on Friday, but a first look at forecasts from consultants and traders for supply and demand balances show persistent surpluses, not the deficit that was expected to underpin rising prices.
The culprits: rising shale production, a slowing global economy and the prospect of a deepening trade war.


"The balances for 2020 were already worrisome, and the downgrade in demand we are contemplating put them potentially in the ugly category," said Roger Diwan, an OPEC watcher at consultant IHS Markit Ltd.

The first tentative glances into 2020 by oil consultants are nearly unanimous about the prospect of oversupply -- a view shared in private by major commodity trading houses. The surpluses are all the more remarkable because none is predicting a recovery in Iranian and Venezuelan output. Over the last year, the combined output of the two troubled OPEC producers has dropped roughly 2.2 million barrels a day -- equal to what Germany consumes. …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-09/bulls-beware-the-2020-oil-market-is-quickly-turning-ugly
Also here:  https://apple.news/ADWCAwciWR_SMPGMiCqUcPQ
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3004 on: June 13, 2019, 11:29:03 AM »
It smelled like a big war.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/gulf-of-oman-incident-latest-intl/index.html

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Iran says it rescued 44 crew members from the two affected tankers
 From CNN’s Shirzad Bozorgmehr in Tehran

Forty-four sailors and crew members have been rescued by Iran's navy from two tankers in the Gulf of Oman and have been taken to the Iranian island of Jask, according to Iran state-run news agency IRNA, citing informed sources on Thursday.

The report claimed the ships were “targeted” but did not detail by whom, or what. 

Jask is an Iranian port in the south, about 12.5 miles from Oman’s shore.

I hope the war will not be nuclear.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3005 on: June 13, 2019, 11:39:35 AM »
Probably say that in tankers was Iranian oil. Perhaps Trump decided to move from words to action.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3006 on: June 13, 2019, 11:42:59 AM »
One tanker sank with a cargo of oil in 75 thousand tons of oil. This will probably be one of the largest environmental disasters in history.

A torpedo was allegedly used for the attack.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3007 on: June 13, 2019, 02:45:20 PM »
One tanker sank with a cargo of oil in 75 thousand tons of oil. This will probably be one of the largest environmental disasters in history.

A torpedo was allegedly used for the attack.

"One tanker sank" was a report from Iran State media.
Latest from the bbc says not (yet)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48619771
Quote
Dozens of crew members have been rescued after abandoning two oil tankers hit by explosions in the Gulf of Oman. Iran said it rescued the 21 crew members on board the Kokuka Courageous and the 23 on the Front Altair, though the US said its Navy had rescued some.

The cause of the blasts in one of the world's busiest oil routes is unclear and both vessels are still afloat.

The incident comes a month after four oil tankers were attacked off the UAE.

'Sabotaged' tanker in Gulf of Oman leaked oil

Oil prices rose as much as 4.5% from a near five-month low following Thursday's incident, Bloomberg reports.
What do we know about the explosions?
The cause has not been confirmed.

The Norwegian-owned Front Altair had been "attacked", the Norwegian Maritime Authority said, leading to three explosions on board.

Wu I-fang, a spokesman for Taiwan's state oil refiner CPC Corp, which chartered the Front Altair, said it was carrying 75,000 tonnes of naphtha and was "suspected of being hit by a torpedo", although this has not been confirmed. Other unverified reports suggested a mine attack.

The ship's owner, Frontline, said the Marshall Islands-flagged vessel was on fire but denied reports on Iran media it had sunk.

The operator of the Panama-flagged Kokuka Courageous, BSM Ship Management, said its crew abandoned ship and were rescued by a passing vessel.

The tanker was carrying methanol and was not in danger of sinking, a spokesman said.

It is currently located about 80 miles from Fujairah in the UAE and 16 miles from Iran. The cargo remains intact.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3008 on: June 13, 2019, 04:15:42 PM »
Thanks for clarifying. Tankers burn very strongly, the smoke is clearly visible from the satellites.





https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/13/oil-tanker-catches-fire-after-leaving-uae-port

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3009 on: June 13, 2019, 04:20:12 PM »
More pictures. Major damage to the environment is obvious. Who did this?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/06/13/oil-tankers-blown-torpedoed-off-coast-oman-9933390/








SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3010 on: June 13, 2019, 04:37:02 PM »
More pictures. Major damage to the environment is obvious. Who did this?

Who would be interested in causing this damage, or creating conflict?  The list is very, very long.
Maybe a false flag intended to stoke war against Iran.  Maybe an oil exporter not in the region, who wants higher prices for their exports?  CIA, Mossad, FSB, Houthis, ISIS, al Qaeda, even Saudi or UAE themselves.  Even NKorea might want to divert attention away from their nuclear activities.  Maybe Iran's Revolutionary Guards are stupid enough to do this.  This strikes me as the least likely of the list, though.

magnamentis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3011 on: June 13, 2019, 04:47:47 PM »
More pictures. Major damage to the environment is obvious. Who did this?

Who would be interested in causing this damage, or creating conflict?  The list is very, very long.
Maybe a false flag intended to stoke war against Iran.  Maybe an oil exporter not in the region, who wants higher prices for their exports?  CIA, Mossad, FSB, Houthis, ISIS, al Qaeda, even Saudi or UAE themselves.  Even NKorea might want to divert attention away from their nuclear activities.  Maybe Iran's Revolutionary Guards are stupid enough to do this.  This strikes me as the least likely of the list, though.

you ask the right question but the list is not long at all, at least if we count those who are pulling the strings in the back-ground. that they often use straw men for their purposes is another story.

what i'm saying is that i thing along the same path, i'm even quite sure that there is more to this than just a frustrated pirate or fisherman LOL ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3012 on: June 13, 2019, 05:16:42 PM »
More pictures. Major damage to the environment is obvious. Who did this?

Who would be interested in causing this damage, or creating conflict?  The list is very, very long.
Maybe a false flag intended to stoke war against Iran.  Maybe an oil exporter not in the region, who wants higher prices for their exports?  CIA, Mossad, FSB, Houthis, ISIS, al Qaeda, even Saudi or UAE themselves.  Even NKorea might want to divert attention away from their nuclear activities.  Maybe Iran's Revolutionary Guards are stupid enough to do this.  This strikes me as the least likely of the list, though.

If it did the CIA to start a war, how do you think the United States can win a quick victory or will there be no winners in the war (the war will be too long and hard)?

Americans have a strong army, but Iranians have a lot of fanaticism. Now the United States is little dependent on Arab oil, and Trump is a strong-willed leader striving for populist slogans to make America great again.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3013 on: June 13, 2019, 05:30:50 PM »
m

If it did the CIA to start a war, how do you think the United States can win a quick victory or will there be no winners in the war (the war will be too long and hard)?

Americans have a strong army, but Iranians have a lot of fanaticism. Now the United States is little dependent on Arab oil, and Trump is a strong-willed leader striving for populist slogans to make America great again.

My answer would be that a US-Iran war would be a profound catastrophe for both nations, and the entire world.  But the players don't ask me.  John Bolton and Mike Pompeo seem to have a different crystal ball, envisioning the Iranian people using the opportunity to ride a revolution to "freedom," being grateful for the opportunity to do so.  These two are demented idiots, but they could engineer the CIA into provoking the necessary conflict.

But I'm far from convinced that the other players on the list I presented are in the clear, either.  The list of potential suspects isn't short.  I'd select a different prime suspect, myself.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3014 on: June 13, 2019, 05:51:25 PM »
My answer would be that a US-Iran war would be a profound catastrophe for both nations, and the entire world.  But the players don't ask me.  John Bolton and Mike Pompeo seem to have a different crystal ball, envisioning the Iranian people using the opportunity to ride a revolution to "freedom," being grateful for the opportunity to do so.  These two are demented idiots, but they could engineer the CIA into provoking the necessary conflict.

But I'm far from convinced that the other players on the list I presented are in the clear, either.  The list of potential suspects isn't short.  I'd select a different prime suspect, myself.

Thanks for the answer. Hopefully, pacifism will prevail.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3015 on: June 13, 2019, 05:57:04 PM »
If Iran or one of its surrogates did not do the attack, then this may merely delay the USA / Iran conflict hotting up.

After all, the USA is pursuing a policy designed to bankrupt the country, presumably to force them to the table and agree a new nuclear / terrorism agreement enforceable by whom? Probably not the UN, as Trump despises it.

If someone is pursuing an economic war against your government probably  with a view to regime change, what is the rational response of that regime? To make the price the aggressor has to pay of equal or greater damage to them. In this case, the damage required is to Trump, who will lose the 2020 election if the economy tanks or he gets the USA into a hot war.

In my erstwhile travels here and there, I met a few Iranians, most of whom had no love for their current regime. But some fought to the death in the 1980's war with Iraq, so had no love for the USA, and said that any foreign attack on Iran would be resisted. It is very different from Iraq, where Hussein's Republican Guard (with a few exceptions) did not resist the US invasion.

Yet another reason, if you have the money, to invest in solar / wind power + battery storage and an EV.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3016 on: June 13, 2019, 06:02:25 PM »
Another important point is that China is the main consumer of Arab oil, like Europe. Therefore, the chaos in the Gulf will be beneficial to Trump, as a weakening of the main geopolitical competitors. Perhaps this is the main goal of the looming conflict, and not a quick victory in Iran.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3017 on: June 13, 2019, 06:05:02 PM »
In any case, a possible conflict will have dire consequences for the environment. I read that burning wells in Kuwait were extinguished for about a year. I hope the new disaster does not happen. All the more likely the new war will be very long.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3018 on: June 13, 2019, 06:32:58 PM »
Yet another reason, if you have the money, to invest in solar / wind power + battery storage and an EV.

I fear that the business will do otherwise. It will replace Arab oil with shale or bituminous oil from North America, or even worse with cheap coal.

During big wars, nobody cares about the environment. Countries have no problem destroying oil tankers and wells.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3019 on: June 13, 2019, 09:53:41 PM »
Its in China's interests to reduce its level of oil and gas imports from countries that are not "friendly" and through means that are easily stopped by its enemies (i.e. the sea routes from the Middle East to China), given the rapidly escalating conflict between it and the USA.

They can do this in multiple ways:
- Increase the amount of oil and gas imported through pipeline from Russia, Central Asia and Iran. Building such pipelines takes many years, but some will be coming on line in the next year or two. They could also use oil trains as an emergency option, running through the interiors of Russia and China.
- Rapidly accelerate the move to EV's, targeting the highest mileage drivers (i.e. taxi drivers, delivery people, buses) first. I don't have stats but mileage may follow the 80/20 rule, which may be even more true of China where private drivers tend not to drive long distances (there are high speed trains for that).
- Increase taxes and other negative incentives for people to use ICE vehicles, also put a "no more ICE sales" date relatively soon, such as 2025 and force the scrapping of cars that don't meet a given mpg level.
- Target long-haul truck delivery for movement to trains, and heavily fund research and production of electric heavy trucks.

In a truly conflictual situation, such as the US attacking Iran or the US sanctioning oil and gas imports to China, all of the above plus more (e.g. the banning of non-essential car trips) could be done at a more rapid pace. Add in rapidly expanding wind, solar and nuclear capacity.

The end result will be a China self sufficient in energy (great for the trade balance) when Russia is included and many, many years ahead of the US in EV's and the related technologies (e.g. batteries). China is also expanding its coal production enough to become self sufficient (no more coal imports from Australia), imports are relatively small compared to overall consumption.

The other result once the conflictual fallout has been dealt with will be a structural reduction in oil demand, as other countries (India?) can copy China's model of moving away from the dependence on oil imports (an increasing issue for India). That will be devastating for the Tar Sands, Deep Sea Oil, Fracking and many of the MENA governments. Also, a huge headache for Russia as demand for its oil may stay stable but the price will fall substantially. Its Natural Gas exports should not be negatively impacted.

This reality is coming, outright hostilities will just bring it along quicker - with a last hurrah for the oil producers as prices spike during the hostilities and the clean up period. Very much like what happened after the 1970's price spikes, the industrialized countries ramped up energy efficiency and looked for domestic/non OPEC supplies of energy. The 1980's and 1990's were not kind to the oil producers.





vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3020 on: June 13, 2019, 10:14:07 PM »
Mike Pompeo Blames Iran for Oil Tanker Attacks in Gulf of Oman; Presents No Evidence for His Claim
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/13/mike-pompeo-iran-gulf-oil-tanker-attacks


What Impact Could Oil Tanker Attacks Have On Global Economy?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/13/what-impact-could-oil-tanker-attacks-have-on-global-economy-gulf-oman


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Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3021 on: June 13, 2019, 11:21:39 PM »
It looks like a local conspiracy to me, to get the oil price higher.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3022 on: June 14, 2019, 12:15:25 AM »
Conversely; it could be a means of tightening the screws on China, which gets a good fraction of its oil from the Gulf. Blaming Iran is a twofer.

If one had a Machiavellian mind it would seem to have Bolton and Stephen Miller's fingerprints on it. Israel or the Saudi Prince could provide plausible deniability.

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Admiral James Greer: Now, understand, commander, that torpedo did not self-destruct. You heard it hit the hull. And I... [shows him his CIA identification] ...was never here.

Hunt for Red October- 1990
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3023 on: June 14, 2019, 01:13:53 AM »
Conversely; it could be a means of tightening the screws on China, which gets a good fraction of its oil from the Gulf. Blaming Iran is a twofer.

If one had a Machiavellian mind it would seem to have Bolton and Stephen Miller's fingerprints on it. Israel or the Saudi Prince could provide plausible deniability.
 

I don't think it matters much which importer gets oil from where.  Oil shipments are fungible.  All importers and exporters would see higher prices.  Highest bidder will always be able to get oil.  China wouldn't be hurt worse than Japan or NKorea, or Europe.  So I doubt China is the intended target.  All exporters outside of the middle east stand to profit. 

Most likely culprit, I'd suspect, would be Mossad/IDF.  With the Iran nuclear deal in tatters, getting the US to attack Iran is the only way to prevent Iran from making nukes.  That's been Likud's goal for years.  If Israel then "assists" the US in strikes, that may cement a rightward turn for the upcoming election there.  Netanyahu rather desperately needs that boost, because without greater political strength, he faces probable prison for corruption.  And they have experience using limpet mines in covert operations.

Still, other players could have almost comparable motivations. 

I doubt we'll have good information to form a judgment, though.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3024 on: June 14, 2019, 06:48:52 AM »
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/13/politics/us-images-iranian-boat-removing-mine/index.html

Quote
(CNN)The United States military on Thursday released a video that it says shows an Iranian navy boat removing an unexploded mine attached to the hull of the Japanese-owned chemical tanker Kokura Courageous, one of two tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday blamed Iran for attacking the Kokura Courageous and another ship, Norwegian-owned Front Altair, saying the assessment was based on intelligence. Later Thursday night, US Central Command released the video, which it says shows Iranian sailors removing a mine from the Kokura Courageous' hull.
In the video, a smaller boat is shown coming up to the side of the Japanese-owned tanker. An individual stands up on the bow of the boat and can be seen removing an object from the tanker's hull. The US says that object is likely an unexploded mine.

The attack comes at a time of high tensions between the US and Iran, and could provide more fodder for Iran hawks within the administration, whose recent Iran saber-rattling has frustrated President Donald Trump. One of them, national security adviser John Bolton, announced last month that the Pentagon was deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force to the Middle East in response to a "number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings" from Iran.
Earlier in the day, four US officials told CNN the US had the images.

One of the officials said the video came from a US military aircraft that was recording as it flew overhead.
The boat made the move even after the destroyer USS Bainbridge, as well as a US drone and P-8 aircraft, had been on the scene for four hours. US defense officials believe that the Iranians were seeking to recover evidence of their involvement in the attack.
Another of the officials told CNN that multiple Iranian small boats have entered the area where the Bainbridge continues to be on the scene, prompting US Central Command to issue a statement saying, "No interference with USS Bainbridge, or its mission, will be tolerated."
The two tankers -- one carrying oil and the other transporting chemicals -- were attacked in international waters near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. All crew members were evacuated and were safe, according to the owners of the two ships.
Images released by the US Central Command on Thursday showed crew from the USS Bainbridge assisting crew members of the Kokuka Courageous following their rescue.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3025 on: June 14, 2019, 06:50:12 AM »
It's horrible

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3026 on: June 14, 2019, 07:13:49 AM »
I think the main culprits will be local players, for a higher price. Or maybe China or India, to secure future supplies. They have less oil reserves than what's left in the north sea (30 billion barrels), or the US (25 billion barrels conventional oil, without shale oil) . And they have a population that's much bigger. Almost 3 billion together. And many small players in asia are running out of oil. And the only way to secure that supply is boots on the ground.

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3027 on: June 14, 2019, 07:33:32 AM »
When 2 dogs are fighting for a bone, than we know what the 3th dog is doing. He grabs it and enjoys it. And i think the US is one of the fighting dogs. So who is the 3 th dog ?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3028 on: June 14, 2019, 08:56:29 AM »
The ones who already have a lot of renewables. Gives them a headstart.