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El Cid

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3150 on: July 21, 2019, 01:24:00 PM »
High oil prices do hurt China, they import ever bigger quantities of the stuff:

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/crude-oil-imports

All the cleantech is smokescreen, China's growth is still fuelled by coal and oil

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3151 on: July 21, 2019, 04:40:31 PM »
The ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Crowd Wants Access to This Arctic Reserve
Quote
Many junkies, before hitting bottom, stoop low enough to steal their mothers’ jewels. That’s what’s happening at a national scale on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.

...We know that neither the nation nor the world needs those reserves, whether they prove to be a new Prudhoe Bay or a mere puddle. More to the point, we know that, given the realities of greenhouse gas pollution and climate change, we cannot afford to burn them.

So why did the Republican-controlled Congress add a rider to the 2017 tax bill opening the 1002 area to drilling?

Because getting this cheap win in America’s pervasive and destructive culture wars stuck a thumb in the eye of environmental interests on behalf the oil and gas industry. The “Drill, baby, drill” crowd wanted access to the Arctic Refuge because they had been kept out. They had a spiteful point to prove: Nobody stops them, not ever. ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/opinion/arctic-national-wildlife-refuge.html?searchResultPosition=8&utm_content=buffer4ce31&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3152 on: July 21, 2019, 04:54:16 PM »
The ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Crowd Wants Access to This Arctic Reserve
Quote
Many junkies, before hitting bottom, stoop low enough to steal their mothers’ jewels. That’s what’s happening at a national scale on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.

...We know that neither the nation nor the world needs those reserves, whether they prove to be a new Prudhoe Bay or a mere puddle. More to the point, we know that, given the realities of greenhouse gas pollution and climate change, we cannot afford to burn them.

So why did the Republican-controlled Congress add a rider to the 2017 tax bill opening the 1002 area to drilling?

Because getting this cheap win in America’s pervasive and destructive culture wars stuck a thumb in the eye of environmental interests on behalf the oil and gas industry. The “Drill, baby, drill” crowd wanted access to the Arctic Refuge because they had been kept out. They had a spiteful point to prove: Nobody stops them, not ever. ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/opinion/arctic-national-wildlife-refuge.html?searchResultPosition=8&utm_content=buffer4ce31&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Soon enough no wildcatters will have access to capital to drill expensive wells like at the Arctic. The push comes from the desire of Alaska for income. It wont be long before the "guaranteed" income they have gets slashed...

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3153 on: July 21, 2019, 06:14:12 PM »
<SNIP>

Soon enough no wildcatters will have access to capital to drill expensive wells like at the Arctic. The push comes from the desire of Alaska for income. It wont be long before the "guaranteed" income they have gets slashed...

Alaska is becoming a very interesting social experiment. It firmly hitched its wagon to fossil fuels in the 1970s and appeared to prosper for decades as the largest pool of conventional oil in the U.S. produced a steady stream of royalties. The State eliminated income and sales taxes. So much money was sloshing around that a "Permanent" fund was set up to manage the unspent surpluses. This fund is broadly designed to be a savings account for the state and a portion of the interest is disbursed to all residents of Alaska. The amount varies, recently it has been around two thousand dollars a year.
As time went by, inevitably the State became more and more dependent on the oil industry, and, just as inevitably, the main oil field at Prudhoe Bay  started to run out. It is now at the point where if its flow drop much more, there will not be enough oil to fill the trans Alaska pipeline and the tap will literally be turned off. There are several options available to Alaska at this time; it has chosen to pursue the "stealing jewels from it mother" route. It is slashing all state services,  including policing, health care, education ( notoriously the University of Alaska may shut entirely) and transport. Much of coastal Alaska is dependent on ferries- including the capital Juneau. The ferries are being taken out of service and for the first time in memory, there will be no scheduled ferry service to coastal Alaska, including its capital this winter.
Alaskans have voted for an increased permanent fund dividend and a reduced level of government. If the 1002 lands of the Arctic Refuge are developed and prove to contain abundant oil and if oil prices rise and remain high, a few more years of abundant dividends await Alaskans. Otherwise, and eventually, we are witnessing a post petroleum petroleum state.
Fascinating.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3154 on: July 22, 2019, 01:33:42 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3155 on: July 22, 2019, 05:35:17 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3156 on: July 22, 2019, 07:55:40 PM »
The fracking industry is in trouble.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Is-Doomed-No-Matter-What-They-Do.html

Quote


U.S. Shale Is Doomed No Matter What They Do

By Nick Cunningham - Jul 21, 2019, 4:00 PM CDT

With financial stress setting in for U.S. shale companies, some are trying to drill their way out of the problem, while others are hoping to boost profitability by cutting costs and implementing spending restraint. Both approaches are riddled with risk.

Quote
But while the philosophies differ – relentless growth versus restraint – IEEFA argues that “neither of these strategies seem viable.” On the one hand, natural gas prices are expected to stay below $3 per MMBtu, a price that is unlikely to lead to profits, IEEFA says. That is especially true if shale companies aggressively spend and produce more gas.

However, a strategy of restraint may not work either. “[E]ven if natural gas producers coordinate their activities and reduce supply—a highly unlikely prospect—Schlotterbeck’s expectation that natural gas prices would inevitably rise is questionable,” IEEFA analysts wrote.

There are few reasons why natural gas prices might not rebound. For instance, any increase in natural gas prices will only induce more renewable energy. Costs for solar, wind and even energy storage has plunged. For years, natural gas was the cheapest option, but that is no longer the case. Renewable energy increasingly beats out gas on price, which means that natural gas prices will run into resistance when they start to rise as demand would inevitably slow.

A second reason why prices might not rise is because public policy is beginning to really work against the gas industry. IEEFA pointed to the recent decision in New York to block the construction of Williams Co.’s pipeline that would have connected Appalachian gas to New York City. In fact, New York seems to be heading in a different direction, recently passing one of the most ambitious and comprehensive pieces of climate and energy bills in the nation. Or, look to Berkeley, California, which just became the first city in the country to ban the installation of natural gas lines in new homes. As public policy increasingly targets the demand side of the equation, natural gas prices face downward pressure.

Another complication for natural gas producers is that the petrochemical industry, which is attracting tens billions of dollars in investment due to the belief that natural gas will remain cheap in perpetuity. Gas producers, who want higher prices, are in conflict with petrochemical manufacturers, who need cheap feedstocks.

“Companies like Shell, which is considering a $6 billion petrochemical investment, must choose: absorb a higher price cost structure for natural gas liquids (NGLs) needed to produce its product, while facing stiff global competition in the petrochemical business. Or, intensify capital commitments and take over the fracking business, hoping to find synergies through integration,” IEEFA noted. “Both of these scenarios change the risk profile Shell has described to justify its aggressive expansion plans in the Ohio Valley.”

The upshot is that while companies like EQT undertake a major shift in strategy, the road ahead remains rocky either way. “More bankruptcies are all but certain as oil and gas borrowers must repay or refinance several hundred billion dollars of debt over the next six months,” IEEFA concluded.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3157 on: July 22, 2019, 08:37:54 PM »
Recently saw a commercial from Pennzoil featuring “Facts:  Crude oil is... crude.  Natural gas is purer.  Penzoil [synthetic oil] is made from natural gas.”

When oil companies start publicly disparaging crude oil, the tide is turning.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3158 on: July 22, 2019, 10:19:20 PM »
Major U.S. cities are leaking methane at twice the rate previously believed

Another study that shows that the official government estimates of fugitive methane emissions are way too low.

Those "freedom molecules" just cannot be contained, they leak from the wellhead all the way through the distribution network to the ultimate consumer - a "Bridge to Nowhere" with an increasing level of production/consumption and greenwashing propaganda.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/major-us-cities-are-leaking-methane-twice-rate-previously-believed

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3159 on: July 23, 2019, 01:23:35 PM »
Sebastian Jones:
Alaskan university cutbacks are endangering climate research:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19072019/alaska-university-budget-cut-dunleavy-arctic-research-future-students-climate-change
I hope that Natalia Shakhova's study's aren't disrupted.
Terry

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3160 on: July 23, 2019, 04:52:33 PM »
Sebastian Jones:
Alaskan university cutbacks are endangering climate research:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19072019/alaska-university-budget-cut-dunleavy-arctic-research-future-students-climate-change
I hope that Natalia Shakhova's study's aren't disrupted.
Terry
Assuming that her grants are not subject to a claw back, her current projects should be OK. However, these cuts are so large that they have the potential to cripple- or even destroy- the entire University, which will certainly be disruptive.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3161 on: July 23, 2019, 06:24:08 PM »
Sebastian Jones:
Alaskan university cutbacks are endangering climate research:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19072019/alaska-university-budget-cut-dunleavy-arctic-research-future-students-climate-change
I hope that Natalia Shakhova's study's aren't disrupted.
Terry
Assuming that her grants are not subject to a claw back, her current projects should be OK. However, these cuts are so large that they have the potential to cripple- or even destroy- the entire University, which will certainly be disruptive.
Hope you're right about her work, and wrong about the university. ???
Terry

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3162 on: July 24, 2019, 06:33:58 PM »
Renewables are expected to displace gas by 2025.  (Note that it's already happening with gas peakers).

https://www.rigzone.com/news/us_gas_economics_set_to_fall_below_3-23-jul-2019-159380-article/

Quote
U.S. natural gas economics will reach below $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) within the next decade, McKinsey Energy Insights reported Tuesday.

According to McKinsey’s newly released 2019 North American Gas Outlook, North American gas demand will increase approximately 32 percent by 2030 – from 95 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 125 bcfd. The firm contends the period will be marked by ample supply, escalating gas exports from North America and new domestic gas demand growth.

McKinsey’s report also predicts that 20 bcfd of North American gas demand growth will come from gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. It also anticipates that coal-fired plant retirements will help gas’ share of the power mix to grow by 5 bcfd; however, it includes the caveat that renewables will start to displace gas after 2025 amid power sector decarbonization.

That could happen in 2021 depending on what happens in November 2020.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3163 on: July 24, 2019, 08:23:45 PM »
The recent projections of large increases in LNG infrastructure are doubtful, given the current gas glut and the trade disputes between China and US causing uncertainty in demand.  And the falling price of renewables limits the time horizon to recoup the massive investments needed to build the LNG terminals and tankers.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/RBC-Natural-Gas-Glut-Will-Last-Into-2020s.html

Quote
RBC: Natural Gas Glut Will Last Into 2020s
By Irina Slav - Jul 22, 2019, 11:00 AM CD

A supply overhang in natural gas will persist into the next decade, the Royal Bank of Canada has projected, adding that China will be the single biggest driver of demand on this market.

S&P Global Platts quoted the bank’s report on the topic as saying "We see the market as clearly oversupplied in 2019 and more moderately oversupplied in 2020, with really only China able to re-balance the market through continued demand growth."

Quote
According to a senior IEA official, China will become the world’s top LNG importer within the next five years, just as the U.S. becomes the largest exporter by 2024, with annual exports of over 100 billion cubic meters in that year. That, however, would only work out with stronger LNG prices and an end to the trade war that has stumped some LNG ambitions because of the lack of long-term import commitments, notably from Chinese importers.

Quote
Going forward, the RBC analysts warned that European demand for gas will stagnate thanks to the increased adoption of renewables. However, the continent will not be able to wean itself off natural gas completely anytime soon. It will remain dependent on imports of pipeline gas and LNG, with the latter’s share in the European energy mix rising.

edmountain

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3164 on: July 26, 2019, 01:45:33 AM »
Once again the Government of Canada pretends it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions whilst simultaneously pushing ahead with massive multi-billion oil sands expansion projects. This time it's the Frontier Oil Sands Mine in the middle of old-growth boreal forest and wetlands on the edge of the Wood Buffalo National Park World Heritage Site in northern Alberta.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/oilsands-mine-in-public-interest-despite-significant-adverse-effects-panel-says-1.5225608


Here's a partial tally of the environment damage of this project as taken word-for-word from the very report giving the project its go ahead (emphasis added):

  • The project will be large emitter of greenhouse gases. Total greenhouse gas emissions from the project are estimated to be about 4.1 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year.
  • The evidence provided by Teck does not demonstrate how the Frontier project will achieve best-in-class greenhouse gas emissions intensity.
  • There will be a net loss of over 14 000 hectares of wetlands in the local study area, including an irreversible loss of over 3000 hectares of peatlands.
  • The loss of more than 14 000 hectares of wetlands is a high-magnitude and irreversible project effect.
  • The project will remove all old-growth forests within the project disturbance area. There may be a loss of habitat for many species reliant on such forests, including species at risk, for at least 100 years following closure in 2081.
  • The project, therefore, has the potential to make an incremental contribution to already existing significant adverse cumulative effects to woodland caribou.
  • The magnitude of project’s effects on bison habitat is considered high given that the project will affect over 20 per cent of bison habitat within the regional study area, and habitat loss is a primary threat to bison sustainability.
  • The potential for the Ronald Lake bison to become diseased through contact with diseased bison in Wood Buffalo National Park is also considered a high-magnitude effect.
  • In the absence of sufficient evidence to demonstrate how Teck will achieve its biodiversity objectives, and having regard for the size of the project disturbance area (292 square kilometres), the panel concludes that the project is likely to result in a significant adverse effect to biodiversity, primarily as a result of the loss of wetlands and old-growth forests.
Despite this, the panel concluded the project is in the public interest and recommended approval.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3165 on: July 30, 2019, 07:22:56 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3166 on: August 01, 2019, 01:39:20 AM »
Whiting Petroleum Fires One-Third of Workers, Cuts Output Target
Quote
July 31, 2019
Whiting Petroleum Corp. slashed a third of its workforce, scaled back its full-year production target and posted a surprise quarterly loss. The shares plunged as much as 16%.

The Denver-based oil explorer said the elimination of 254 jobs will result in $50 million in annual cost savings, according to figures released on Wednesday.
...
Whiting joins Pioneer Natural Resources Co., Laredo Petroleum Inc. and Devon Energy Corp. in cutting headcount as investors increasingly focus on general and administrative budgets used for everyday costs like salaries. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-07-31/whiting-petroleum-fires-one-third-of-workers-cuts-output-target
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3167 on: August 01, 2019, 03:46:36 AM »
37 People Injured from Explosion at ExxonMobil Plant in Baytown, TX 
https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Black-smoke-seen-rising-from-Exxon-plant-in-14270030.php

Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said she understood the concern the Baytown community was feeling, as it experienced its "fourth major fire since January."

"It's difficult to look out your window and see a plume of smoke. It's frightening," Hidalgo said. "It's not right for us to live next to a petrochemical plant and live in fear sometimes

... 37 people were taken to an off-site clinic, said Jason Duncan, plant manager at ExxonMobil Baytown Olefins Plant. He described the injuries as all minor first-degree burns and non-life-threatening and that no one has been hospitalized.

He also said the company has not detected any adverse impact to the community. ... (and of course, we know the company would never lie)

https://mobile.twitter.com/CityofBaytown/status/1156657266428276736%20
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 03:53:46 AM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3168 on: August 01, 2019, 05:12:10 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

blumenkraft

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3169 on: August 01, 2019, 07:44:26 PM »
Just 10% of fossil fuel subsidy cash 'could pay for green transition'

Quote
Switching just some of the huge subsidies supporting fossil fuels to renewables would unleash a runaway clean energy revolution, according to a new report, significantly cutting the carbon emissions that are driving the climate crisis.

Coal, oil and gas get more than $370bn (£305bn) a year in support, compared with $100bn for renewables, the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) report found. Just 10-30% of the fossil fuel subsidies would pay for a global transition to clean energy, the IISD said.
Link >> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/01/fossil-fuel-subsidy-cash-pay-green-energy-transition

Full report >> https://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/publications/fossil-fuel-clean-energy-subsidy-swap.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3170 on: August 01, 2019, 09:55:00 PM »
Whiting Petroleum Fires One-Third of Workers, Cuts Output Target
...

More:

”The main issue is that the company plans to slow its well completion pace so that it can build up an inventory of locations that it can finish when commodity prices improve.”

Why Whiting Petroleum Stock Is Crashing Today
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/01/why-whiting-petroleum-stock-is-crashing-today.aspx
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Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 09:41:47 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3172 on: August 04, 2019, 10:53:53 PM »
$10 oil

There is a significant probability of a one-two punch from which oil prices will never recover:
1. A major global recession which we are well overdue for and the level of debt and high risk finance will exacerbate - and the central banks have much less ammunition left to offset.
2. By the the time recovery fully sets in, the % share of EV's in China will be at a point to cap oil demand (it will probably beat 10% by the end of this year), with other countries attempting to rapidly catch up with China (so as not to "lose" the EV industry, and related industries, to them).

The result would be a rerun of the 1990's with $10 oil, and a disaster for the major oil exporting countries in the Middle East, Africa, South America (Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil) plus Russia, plus Alberta and the "fracking" US states. China, Japan, and Europe will be laughing all the way to the bank. A lot of oil companies will also fail, with major financial fallout.

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3173 on: August 04, 2019, 10:58:05 PM »
A $10 oil is not likely. It is not sustainable and all producers will have to stop pumping or continue to so at an astronomical loss. Price of oil will immediately recover as base demand is increasing, depletion is large, and even if all cars switch to electric overnight, there is enough residual demand to counterbalance depletion...

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3174 on: August 04, 2019, 11:15:01 PM »
I don't think that it will stay there for long, maybe bounce back to $40, but do consider that there is a significant chance that it will happen. Lets come back in 2025 and see what happened.

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3175 on: August 04, 2019, 11:16:26 PM »
We might have to do that sooner. Current projections for peak oil demand/economic production is around 2022 and 2025. Price will become more difficult to deflate afterwards...

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3176 on: August 04, 2019, 11:31:03 PM »
I remember that ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) meeting in Brussels in 2011 when the TOTAL guy who was trying to describe how fracking would push back the peak was met with derision. So I am now very wary of such projections.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3177 on: August 04, 2019, 11:35:00 PM »
Reagan died, and his Saudi partner in crime is enfeebled.
Never again will we see $10.00 oil.


Besides the Evil Empire is long gone, and dumping oil only strengthened Putin's Federation.
Terry

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3178 on: August 04, 2019, 11:35:47 PM »
Fracking has come and indeed it has pushed the peak back a few years. Many years of unconventional wells study has given rise to very good models of well decline and productivity and ultimate recoverable resources. I have seen curves from those predictions that match very well with oil majors projections. This time is slightly different.

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3179 on: August 04, 2019, 11:37:03 PM »
What was not forseen previously is how much and easy capital got available to support fracking build up

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3180 on: August 04, 2019, 11:38:02 PM »
Fracking has come and indeed it has pushed the peak back a few years. Many years of unconventional wells study has given rise to very good models of well decline and productivity and ultimate recoverable resources. I have seen curves from those predictions that match very well with oil majors projections. This time is slightly different.

This time is slightly different - that ranks high in the famous last words ratings.

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3181 on: August 04, 2019, 11:44:15 PM »
Fracking has come and indeed it has pushed the peak back a few years. Many years of unconventional wells study has given rise to very good models of well decline and productivity and ultimate recoverable resources. I have seen curves from those predictions that match very well with oil majors projections. This time is slightly different.

This time is slightly different - that ranks high in the famous last words ratings.

Ok, fair enough... don’t have to take my explanation...  :) search and see those newer models by yourself


US Tight Oil Legacy Decline and US Tight Oil Scenarios

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3182 on: August 05, 2019, 12:01:53 AM »
A thought is that the next bailout will include the tight oil producing companies, as their failure would produce a big fallout financially and in many republican states and for rich republican backers (especially if Trump wins in 2020, unfortunately quite probable). Also beneficial for US foreign policy for low oil prices to destabilize Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3183 on: August 05, 2019, 10:13:15 PM »
Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives for cars
August 5, 2019
Quote
Wind and solar power can produce seven times more useful energy for cars, dollar for dollar, than gasoline with oil prices near current levels, according to BNP Paribas SA.

Oil will have fall to $9-$10 a barrel in the long-term in order for gasoline cars to remain competitive with clean-powered electric vehicles, and to $17-$19 a barrel for diesel,
Mark Lewis, global head of sustainability research at BNP’s asset management unit, said in a research report. U.S. benchmark crude was trading at about $55 in New York on Monday.

“Our analysis leads to a very stark conclusion for the oil industry: for the same capital outlay today, wind and solar energy will already produce much more useful energy for EVs than will oil purchased on the spot market,” Lewis said. “These are stunning numbers, and they suggest that the economics of renewables in tandem with EVs are set to become irresistible over the next decade.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/oil-needs-to-fall-below-20-to-compete-in-green-transport-future

(Will cross-post in Electric Cars thread.)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3184 on: August 07, 2019, 04:39:24 PM »
Explosions in Three States Highlight Dangers of Aging Fossil Fuel Infrastructure

On August 1, for the third time in as many years, Enbridge's Texas Eastern Transmission gas pipeline exploded.

...

The Kentucky incident came less than 24 hours after ExxonMobil’s Baytown, Texas, petrochemical plant saw its second major fire this year.

Last week’s Baytown explosion injured 66 workers and has already spurred at least three lawsuits against the company, including one by a worker alleging his burns were far more serious than ExxonMobil had indicated.

Just over a month earlier, a massive fireball and series of explosions ripped through the largest refinery on the East Coast, the Philadelphia Energy Solutions complex.

....

A 2015 report by the Pipeline Safety Trust found that some of the most dangerous onshore hazardous liquids pipelines were those built in the 1920s, with a rate of 8.7 incidents per 10,000 miles — a rate only surpassed by pipes laid in the 2010s, which had over 13.5 reported incidents per 10,000 miles. Gas pipelines built in the 2010s also had a higher per-mile accident rate than those built during any prior decade, including all pipes built prior to the 1940s, the Trust found.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/08/06/aging-fossil-fuel-pipeline-deadly-kentucky-texas-refinery-explosion

Yee-effing-haw...


Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3185 on: August 07, 2019, 04:54:25 PM »
The Trump Effect

Gold up (and US Treasuries), Crude down, fear rules.

but the man says the USA is winning the trade war.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3186 on: August 07, 2019, 04:58:50 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3187 on: August 07, 2019, 09:59:44 PM »
The Trump Effect

Gold up (and US Treasuries), Crude down, fear rules.

but the man says the USA is winning the trade war.

Oil down BIGLY! (or was that big league?)


Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3188 on: August 09, 2019, 08:50:22 PM »
The largest US shale oil field, the Permian, is nearing peak.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Permian-Boom-Is-On-Its-Last-Leg.html

Quote
The Permian Basin is responsible for the greatest oil production gains in the U.S. in recent years. Over the past eight years, there has been phenomenal production growth in the Permian. Between August 2011 and today, Permian Basin oil production quadrupled, with oil production there topping 4 million barrels per day (BPD) earlier this year:

Quote
However, if we look at the year-over-year gains over the past few years, there has been a noticeable slowdown in oil production growth. This slowdown is particularly pronounced in the Permian Basin. The most recent estimates in the Permian are that year-over-year production is growing today at just over half the level of a year ago. Production growth there has been in rapid decline since peaking a year ago.


Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3189 on: August 09, 2019, 09:59:05 PM »
The rapidly declining prices for renewables combined with advances in electric vehicles spells the end of Big Oil.  Banks are starting to notice.

https://thinkprogress.org/oil-faces-irreversible-decline-thanks-to-electric-cars-and-solar-warns-worlds-8th-largest-bank-d128101ef4a8/

Quote
Plunging prices for batteries and renewables are driving an electric vehicle (EV) revolution so rapidly that the economics of oil “are now in relentless and irreversible decline.”

That’s the startling conclusion of a detailed new analysis for “professional investors” of the economics of EVs versus gasoline cars produced by BNP Paribas, the world’s eighth largest bank by total assets.

Quote
Since BNP Paribas is a big bank and the report is for investors, though, a key point of the analysis is that oil companies are investing staggering amounts of money in finding and producing new wells — and most of them are going to lose a lot of that money.

“By the late 2020s” Lewis explains, a significant fraction of the oil produced today “might only be competitive at a price below [oil companies’] full cost of production.” Even worse, this fraction “will rise over the lifetime of these projects as the penetration rate of EVs increases.”

If you can’t produce oil profitably at under $10 or $20 a barrel, your oil company is in big trouble.

From a broader perspective, Lewis warns that all this money currently being spent on finding and producing new oil is a huge waste — “an opportunity cost to society as a whole.”

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3190 on: August 09, 2019, 10:22:04 PM »
Yeah.... look again , between natural decline and population increase  even if all light transport is replaced by electric now... by 2025 production will be the same as today....

interstitial

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3191 on: August 10, 2019, 04:50:41 AM »
Yeah.... look again , between natural decline and population increase  even if all light transport is replaced by electric now... by 2025 production will be the same as today....
Got any source material?

DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3192 on: August 10, 2019, 04:31:28 PM »
I will collect a few. Unfortunately they will probably get dismissed because some of them come from those darn oil companies.

Things change for the unpredictable if there is a big recession due to trade wars.....

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3193 on: August 10, 2019, 08:23:09 PM »
Africa's Biggest Reserve Under Threat from Chinese Oil Deal
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-africa-biggest-reserve-threat-chinese.html

Environmental activists said Friday they have launched a petition to stop the break-up of Niger's Termit and Tin Toumma national nature reserve, the biggest in Africa, to honour an oil deal with China.

The government in Niamey announced in June it had decided to "redraw the boundaries" of the Saharan wildlife park, set up in 2012, to respect a production share contract signed four years earlier with the China National Petroleum Corporation.

The deal gives the CNPC rights in the Agadem oil blocs that fall within the 96,560 square kilometre (37,282 square mile) park.

CNPC currently operates 21 oil wells within the reserve which is crossed by a 100-kilometre (60-mile) pipeline, according to Noe.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3194 on: August 13, 2019, 02:06:15 AM »
Yeah.... look again , between natural decline and population increase  even if all light transport is replaced by electric now... by 2025 production will be the same as today....

Pretty unlikely.  We're at peak ICE now.  There's a global slowdown in automobile sales.  And battery electric vehicles are taking an increasing share of the market.

The slowdown is especially severe in what had been the largest growing sectors of the market, China and India.

Quote
BUSINESS NEWSJULY 31, 2019 / 4:07 PM / 12 DAYS AGO
Sales slumps in China, India clobber automakers banking on Asia for growth

BEIJING (Reuters) - Steep drops in auto sales for China and India over recent months are serving as a painful reminder that the two world’s most populous markets are not living up to earlier heady expectations.

Take China for instance. Former Beijing Automotive Group Co Ltd (BAIC) President Wang Dazong confidently predicted in 2010 that annual sales in the world’s biggest car market would hit 40 million vehicles by 2020. More circumspect but still bullish, the Chinese government said two years ago it was targeting 35 million by 2025.

Today, neither prediction gels well with the reality on the ground.

Hit by a slowing economy, the U.S.-China trade war and the chaotic implementation of new emission rules, vehicle sales logged a 12th straight month of declines in June. Industry officials and analysts now expect car demand to slide some 5% this year after a 2.8% fall last year to 28.1 million - its first decline since the 1990s.

Last month, a large European supplier to the auto industry revised their estimate of the global slowdown in auto sales from a 3% drop to a 5% drop.  They anticipate growth in electric vehicles over the next few years.

https://europe.autonews.com/suppliers/bosch-sees-car-production-falling-5-2019-report-says

Quote
FRANKFURT -- Robert Bosch revised its forecast for global automotive production on Saturday, expecting a 5 percent decline  this year, bigger than an earlier estimate of a 3 percent decline, the company's chief financial officer told a German newspaper.

Quote
By 2025, Bosch expects to generate 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) in revenue from electric cars because of steady growth in the segment, particularly in China, he said.

 Bosch has already supplied components for more than 1 million electric vehicles and expects revenues to grow since it has developed powertrains for 50 vehicle platforms for various manufacturers, the executive told the newspaper.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3195 on: August 15, 2019, 04:46:27 PM »
GE shares drop after whistleblower raises red flags on its accounting
Quote
Markopolos’s case centers around GE’s long-term care insurance unit, which the company had to boost reserves for by $15 billion last year. By examining the filings of GE’s counterparties in this business, he alleges that GE is hiding massive losses that will only increase as policy-holders grow older. He claims that GE has filed false statements to regulators on the unit, or eight other insurance regulators have done so. Separately, he goes on to find issues with GE’s accounting on its oil and gas unit Baker Hughes. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/ge-shares-drop-after-madoff-whistleblower-harry-markopolos-raises-red-flags-on-its-accounting.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3196 on: August 16, 2019, 07:21:28 PM »
GE shares drop after whistleblower raises red flags on its accounting
Quote
Markopolos’s case centers around GE’s long-term care insurance unit, which the company had to boost reserves for by $15 billion last year. By examining the filings of GE’s counterparties in this business, he alleges that GE is hiding massive losses that will only increase as policy-holders grow older. He claims that GE has filed false statements to regulators on the unit, or eight other insurance regulators have done so. Separately, he goes on to find issues with GE’s accounting on its oil and gas unit Baker Hughes. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/ge-shares-drop-after-madoff-whistleblower-harry-markopolos-raises-red-flags-on-its-accounting.html

This is the oil and gas thread ..... ah snuck it in at then end! Am sure a lot of shale O&G companies are playing games with their accounting to stay afloat right now.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3197 on: August 16, 2019, 08:13:06 PM »
Fracking boom tied to methane spike in Earth’s atmosphere

At some point hopefully we will reach the tipping point when objective research (as against US-govt funded and industry funded bullshit research) will make it impossible for governments to assert that natural gas is "clean" compared to coal. I will not hold my breath ....

Quote
The study took previous data on the chemical composition of methane in the atmosphere and applied a series of equations to parse out how much of this lighter form of methane could be attributed to shale gas. That lighter form of methane released during fracking is a substantial component of the overall methane rise since 2008.

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However, he acknowledges that the chemical fingerprint of shale gas can vary depending on the locale and how the chemical analysis is done. While the study isn’t a “smoking gun,” it has found a link between recent increases in methane in the atmosphere and shale gas production.

“It’s fuzzy, but the fingerprint is there,” Howarth says.

Quote
Natural gas is mainly methane. Fracking involves drilling an oil or gas well vertically and then horizontally into a shale formation. A mixture of highly pressurized water, chemicals, and sand is injected to create and prop open fissures, or pathways for the gas to flow. Nearly all of the world’s fracking operations are in the U.S. and Canada. About two-thirds of all new gas production globally over the last decade has been shale gas produced in the U.S. and Canada using fracking, Howarth’s study found.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/fracking-boom-tied-to-methane-spike-in-earths-atmosphere/

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3198 on: August 16, 2019, 11:20:55 PM »
^^
As Canadians we don't really need to be associated with ANOTHER dirty source of energy.


Couldn't we just chop down the Taiga and build a wood pellet pipeline to somewhere needing green energy (credits). ::)
Terry