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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3300 on: October 08, 2019, 08:17:16 PM »
Ecuador's Government Flees Capital as Violent Protests Erupt in Wake of Fuel Price Hikes
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/08/ecuador-moves-government-out-of-capital-as-violent-protests-rage

Ecuador’s president, Lenín Moreno, has said he has moved his government from the capital in Quito to the coastal city of Guayaquil amid violent protests over the end of fuel subsidies.

Images from Quito showed protesters hurling petrol bombs and stones, ransacking and vandalising public buildings as well as clashing with the police in running battles late into the night.

“[This] is not a protest of social dissatisfaction faced with a government decision but the looting, vandalism and violence show there is an organised political motive to destabilise the government,” Moreno said in televised address on Monday, flanked by the vice-president, defence minister and military top brass.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3301 on: October 08, 2019, 11:38:41 PM »
Mystery Oil Spills Blot More Than 130 Brazilian Beaches
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-mystery-oil-brazilian-beaches.html

... Tamar, a group dedicated to the protection of sea turtles, said the oil spill was "the worst environmental tragedy" it has encountered since its formation in 1980.

The patches of oil began appearing in early September and have now turned up along a 2,000 kilometer (1,200 mile) stretch of Atlantic coastline.

On Monday, Salles said after visiting the affected areas that more than 100 tonnes of oil (27,000 gal) have been removed from the beaches in the northeast.

State oil company Petrobras, which is taking part in the cleanup, said its analysis determined that the oil was neither produced nor marketed by the company.



Regardless of the source of the oil pollution, the government did not respond to the situation until last week.

-----------------------

Wasn't the Bahamas missing ~75 million gallons of oil after Hurricane Dorian?
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3302 on: October 09, 2019, 03:19:07 AM »
'There Is Not a Climate Crisis': Trump Administration Spouts Brazen Bullshit to Justify Arctic Drilling
Quote
...attorneys with the Sierra Club stumbled upon this tidbit:

“The BLM does not agree that the proposed development is inconsistent with maintaining a livable planet (i.e., there is not a climate crisis). The planet was much warmer within the past 1,000 years, prior to the Little Ice Age, based on extensive archaeological evidence (such as farming in Greenland and vineyards in England). This warmth did not make the planet unlivable; rather, it was a time when societies prospered.”

This text was included five times in this section of the final environmental impact statement in response to public comments legal group Trustees for Alaska submitted. All the All group’s comments revolved around the role drilling in the Alaskan refuge could have in making climate change worse.

This is the first time that the Sierra Club and its partners have identified the use of such blatant climate-denying language in an official federal environmental analysis. Government officials, including Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler and even President Donald Trump, have said such things before, but an environmental impact statement is more than words. It’s the legal support for a project. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/there-is-not-a-climate-crisis-trump-administration-spo-1838444325/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3303 on: October 09, 2019, 01:17:33 PM »
'There Is Not a Climate Crisis': Trump Administration Spouts Brazen Bullshit to Justify Arctic Drilling
Quote
...attorneys with the Sierra Club stumbled upon this tidbit:

“The BLM does not agree that the proposed development is inconsistent with maintaining a livable planet (i.e., there is not a climate crisis). The planet was much warmer within the past 1,000 years, prior to the Little Ice Age, based on extensive archaeological evidence (such as farming in Greenland and vineyards in England). This warmth did not make the planet unlivable; rather, it was a time when societies prospered.”

This text was included five times in this section of the final environmental impact statement in response to public comments legal group Trustees for Alaska submitted. All the All group’s comments revolved around the role drilling in the Alaskan refuge could have in making climate change worse.

This is the first time that the Sierra Club and its partners have identified the use of such blatant climate-denying language in an official federal environmental analysis. Government officials, including Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler and even President Donald Trump, have said such things before, but an environmental impact statement is more than words. It’s the legal support for a project. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/there-is-not-a-climate-crisis-trump-administration-spo-1838444325/

That might be what is required for a court to set aside the Government's impact statement by accepting the fact of climate change and its impact. There is precedent for such a judgement.

The reality or not of climate change might end up in the US Supreme Court.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

RealityCheck

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3304 on: October 09, 2019, 05:00:33 PM »
The Guardian reports on a major study into oil and gas companies' CO2 emissions since 1965.
35percent emitted by 20 companies and their products.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/09/revealed-20-firms-third-carbon-emissions

And they knew about climate damage by CO2 from c. 1960-1965.
Sic transit gloria mundi

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3305 on: October 09, 2019, 06:12:55 PM »
U.S.
Halliburton cuts 178 employees in Colorado: filing
Quote
DENVER (Reuters) - Top U.S. hydraulic fracturing provider Halliburton this week said it would cut 178 employees in Colorado, according to a state filing.

The layoffs are concentrated in Mesa county in Western Colorado, according to a notice with Colorado’s Department of Labor and Employment.

Earlier this year, Halliburton said it had cut its North American workforce by 8% as reduced customer spending prompted a slowdown in hydraulic fracturing activity.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-halliburton-layoffs/halliburton-cuts-178-employees-in-colorado-filing-idUSKBN1WO23P
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3306 on: October 09, 2019, 07:26:14 PM »
The Guardian reports on a major study into oil and gas companies' CO2 emissions since 1965.
35percent emitted by 20 companies and their products.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/09/revealed-20-firms-third-carbon-emissions

And they knew about climate damage by CO2 from c. 1960-1965.
Well, if Chevron extracts the oil, and Facebook or Nike use it, who is the problem?

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3307 on: October 11, 2019, 06:17:39 PM »
Secret Recordings Describe Extensive Bribery at Mexico’s Pemex
https://www.wsj.com/articles/secret-recordings-describe-extensive-bribery-at-mexicos-pemex-11570804717

MEXICO CITY—In 2017, Israeli private investigation company Black Cube secretly recorded senior officials at Mexico’s Petróleos Mexicanos describing widespread bribery and corruption at the state-run oil company.

The audio recordings are part of the evidence in a lawsuit filed last year against the Mexican government by a Mexican oil-field drilling company called Oro Negro.

-------------------------

Capt. Renault: I am shocked- shocked- to find that gambling is going on in here!
Croupier: [hands Renault money] Your winnings, sir.

- Casablanca - 1942


--------------------------

Iranian Tanker Burning Off Saudi Arabia In The Red Sea
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/30350/iranian-tanker-burning-off-saudi-arabia-in-the-red-sea 
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3308 on: October 15, 2019, 08:59:00 PM »
A couple of related articles from unrelated sources.

First, the problem for the fossil fuel companies:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-energy-revolution-is-already-here-2019-10-14

Quote
Opinion: The energy revolution is already here

Published: Oct 14, 2019 6:10 p.m. ET
The transition to low-carbon fuels is occurring faster than most people think
By Jules Kortenhorst

BOULDER, Colorado (Project Syndicate) — For the longest time, the prevailing narrative about renewable energy featured clumsy technologies, high costs, and burdensome subsidies. In the absence of strict mandates and far-reaching policy changes, the chances for mass adoption seemed slim. Electric vehicles (EVs) simply couldn’t go the distance, and LED lights were unattractive and unaffordable.

But now that these technologies have come of age, a new story is being written. Around the world, businesses, governments, and households are taking advantage of more cost-effective low-carbon technologies.

Quote
As in any rapid transition, a full understanding of what is happening has lagged behind events. Many incumbent energy producers find it hard to believe that their world is undergoing a revolutionary change, so they insist that their heavily polluting technologies will remain relevant and necessary for some time to come.

And the inevitable consequences of renewables being cheaper than fossil fuels:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/14/rise-renewables-oil-firms-decades-earlier-think

Quote
Rise of renewables may see off oil firms decades earlier than they think
Pace of progress raises hope that fossil fuel companies could lose their domination

The world’s rising reliance on fossil fuels may come to an end decades earlier than the most polluting companies predict, offering early signs of hope in the global battle to tackle the climate crisis.

The climate green shoots have emerged amid a renewable energy revolution that promises an end to the rising demand for oil and coal in the 2020s, before the fossil fuels face a terminal decline.

The looming fossil fuel peak is expected to emerge decades ahead of forecasts from oil and mining companies, which are betting that demand for polluting energy will rise until the 2040s.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3309 on: October 16, 2019, 07:51:05 PM »
Near San Francisco, California.
Fortunately the tanks that collapsed were nearly empty. Some moderate earthquake activity in the region recently.

[Updated] Explosion and Fire At Crockett Oil Refinery Shuts Down I-80
https://sfist.com/2019/10/15/fire-at-crockett-oil-refinery-sends-black-smoke/

Massive fire erupts at Bay Area oil refinery.
Contra Costa County Fire: Flames, black smoke at NuStar energy facility
https://abc7.com/fire-contained-at-nustar-energy-facility-in-crockett/5621132/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3310 on: October 16, 2019, 09:09:28 PM »
California

Fire at the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage area, associated with the Saddle Ridge wildfire.  Reports of flames in the sewer system are not believed to be related. :o

Quote
L.A. County Fire Department (@LACoFDPIO) 10/16/19, 1:09 PM
#SaddleRidgeFire Morning *Update* for Wednesday October 16, 2019
https://twitter.com/lacofdpio/status/1184516658536173568
Partial image below; more at the link.

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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3311 on: October 18, 2019, 07:47:36 PM »
The grim news for US shale drillers continues.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Warning-Signs-Are-Flashing-For-US-Shale.html

Quote
U.S. oil production growth has slammed on the breaks, as low prices and the loss of access to capital markets has forced a slowdown in drilling.

Third quarter earnings reports will soon start to trickle in. Three months ago, the shale industry saw improvement in some of the headline cash flow figures, but the second quarter results also revealed some deeper concerns about drilling operations and raised questions about the longevity of an unprofitable oil boom.

The problem for the shale industry is that, if anything, the outlook has only become gloomier since. Oil prices have languished and investors have grown more skeptical.

Quote
The cutbacks have translated into slower output and have led to questions about the “end” of the shale boom.

“A marked slowdown in the US shale patch since the start of the year has led us to lower our expectations slightly for US crude production for 2019 and 2020,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its October Oil Market Report. “Despite many new pipeline projects coming on-line during 2H19, operators continue to lay off rigs and instead prioritise investor returns.”

The Paris-based energy agency noted that U.S. oil production only grew by 140,000 between January and July, a notably modest increase, especially when compared to the 740,000 bpd U.S. drillers added in the same period last year.

The IEA said that cutbacks in spending were a big part of the slowdown. “Pure-play shale producers and independents had already flagged a 6% decline in upstream spending this year in their initial 2019 guidance,” the agency said. “Operators shed another 29 rigs during September so that by end-month, there were 172 fewer active rigs than at end-2018. The frac spread count has declined 23% since March, to a 2.5-year low.”

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3312 on: October 19, 2019, 09:53:48 PM »
How soon until these fossil fuel investment amounts become a relic of history — or a cause of the banks’ failure...?

Top investment banks provide billions to expand fossil fuel industry
Exclusive: analysis reveals lenders provided $700bn to expand sector since Paris climate pact
Quote
The world’s largest investment banks have provided more than $700bn of financing for the fossil fuel companies most aggressively expanding in new coal, oil and gas projects since the Paris climate change agreement, figures show.

The financing has been led by the Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase, which has provided $75bn (£61bn) to companies expanding in sectors such as fracking and Arctic oil and gas exploration, according to the analysis.

The New York bank is one of 33 powerful financial institutions to have provided an estimated total of $1.9tn to the fossil fuel sector between 2016 and 2018.
...
Ensuring a managed decline of the oil and gas industry while also financing the next wave of renewable energy products is deemed to be vital.
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/13/top-investment-banks-lending-billions-extract-fossil-fuels
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3313 on: October 24, 2019, 04:54:36 PM »
Big Oil’s stalled response to climate change is straight out of Big Tobacco playbook, report says, as Exxon trial to begin
Quote
As ExxonMobil heads to court this week for a New York lawsuit accusing it of misleading investors about climate change, a team of researchers at George Mason, Harvard and Bristol universities tracked evidence of a decades-long campaign of alleged deception at the oil giant that the scientists say has confused the American public.

Their report issued Monday draws parallels between the campaigns launched by tobacco companies to delay dangerous health findings from smoking to the fossil-fuel industry’s go-slow response to climate change.The authors highlighted the tactics used by the campaigns, “including trotting out fake experts, promoting conspiracy theories and cherry-picking evidence.” ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fossil-fuel-climate-stalling-straight-out-of-big-tobacco-playbook-experts-say-as-exxon-court-case-to-begin-2019-10-21
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3314 on: October 25, 2019, 02:32:18 PM »
Quote
Dana Nuccitelli on Twitter: Love this exchange!

@AOC: "in 1982, 7 years before I was even born, Exxon accurately predicted that by this year, 2019, the Earth would hit a CO2 concentration of 415 ppm and a temperature of 1°C. Dr. Hoffert, is that correct?

 Hoffert: "We were excellent scientists!"
https://mobile.twitter.com/dana1981/status/1187116174296801281
Video in the subtweet at the link.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3315 on: October 25, 2019, 05:05:51 PM »
Senator Schumer Proposes $462 Billion Car Swap—Gas for Electric
https://techxplore.com/news/2019-10-schumer-billion-car-swapgas-electric.html

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is moving Democrats' climate talk to where the rubber meets the road, proposing a $462 billion trade-in program to get millions of Americans out of climate-damaging gas vehicles and into electric or hybrid cars over the next decade.

Schumer said the "proposal to bring clean cars to all of America" would be a key part of climate legislation by Senate Democrats. The injection of government-supported spending for electric cars "could position the U.S. to lead the world in clean auto manufacturing," he said.

... The New York Democrat's plan would give American car buyers thousands of dollars each to trade in gas-burning cars for U.S.-assembled electric, hybrid or hydrogen cell cars. Lower-income households, and buyers of cars with American-made parts, would get extra credits.

About $45 billion would go to boost availability of charging stations and other electric car infrastructure. And $17 billion would help automakers increase their production of electric cars, batteries and parts.

He didn't outline how he would pay for the plan.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2019, 10:40:29 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3316 on: October 29, 2019, 07:57:16 PM »
USA Natural Gas Consumption

There has been much analysis of how solar & wind are becoming cheaper than natural gas for electricity generation

BUT....


In the US of A only just over one-third (36%) of natural gas consumed is used for electricity generation.
The rest is mainly used for:-
- heating homes - 17%
- heating commercial premises - 12%
- heating in industrial processes - 33%
- transportation - 3% (??)

When what you want is to use heat directly - gas is cheap as chips. Renewables can't compete.

Without a carbon tax I don't see how this will be solved.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3317 on: October 29, 2019, 08:03:50 PM »
A carbon tax would certainly help speed the transition, but renewables are already cheaper than peaker natural gas plants.  And the cost of renewables is decreasing rapidly.  They're projected to be cheaper than operating natural gas plants within a decade or two.

https://www.ehn.org/natural-gas-vs-renewables-2640991454.html?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1

Quote
And finally, despite record production of natural gas and its current low price, reports indicate that renewable energy is about to become a formidable competitor in cost.

The last point received an exclamation point last month in two groundbreaking reports from the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI). Its researchers found that America has reached "a historic tipping point" where "combinations of solar, wind, storage, efficiency and demand response are now less expensive than most proposed gas power plant projects," and will undercut the operating costs of existing gas plants within the next 10 to 20 years.

Quote
Bloomberg New Energy Finance says that by 2030, "new wind and solar ultimately get cheaper than running existing coal or gas plants almost everywhere." An analysis by Lazard Asset Management that found that the range of unsubsidized levelized costs of onshore wind and utility-scale solar to be below that of natural gas.
The federal Energy Information Administration has estimated that by 2023, the levelized cost of producing power by onshore wind and solar, will be considerably cheaper than natural gas ($36.60, $37.60 and $40.20 per megawatt hour respectively for each energy source). Levelized costs reflect construction and operation costs over the technology's assumed lifetime, including subsidies, which solar and wind currently enjoy.

The growing gap between ever-cheaper renewables and natural gas means that some 71 percent of planned new gas capacity analyzed by RMI could become uneconomic by 2035, potentially resulting in tens of billions of dollars of silent hulks otherwise known as stranded assets. If new pipelines were built, they are likely to become underutilized almost overnight as the amount of gas flowing through them plummets 20 to 60 percent over the next 16 years, depending on the region.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3318 on: October 29, 2019, 08:47:36 PM »
My post intended to point out that replacing natural gas with renewables for electricity generation will be the easy bit.

The other 64% is the hard bit.

So not much point in recycling the known data on the reducing cost of renewable electricity.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3319 on: October 29, 2019, 09:07:35 PM »
My post intended to point out that replacing natural gas with renewables for electricity generation will be the easy bit.

The other 64% is the hard bit.

So not much point in recycling the known data on the reducing cost of renewable electricity.

There are many replacements for those uses.  Most (like building heating) can actually be replaced by electricity and when renewable prices are cheaper than gas, the economic incentive will be there for widespread electrification of those uses.  In addition, heat pumps will also become more common for building heating.

Biochar, which is a fertilizer replacement and soil conditioner, produces renewable natural gas as a bi-product.  It can substitute for natural gas in chemical applications, including industrial feedstocks.

In transportation, compressed natural gas is used for buses, forklifts and other specialized transportation uses.  It's pretty costly compared to alternatives due to the need to compress the gas and it's basically dying out now.  It will be replaced by battery electric vehicles.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3320 on: October 29, 2019, 09:12:09 PM »
Since electrification is a key tool in eliminating the use of natural gas, it's important to keep up with the latest developments.  This story was published in Forbes (a conservative media site) today:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/10/29/huge-battery-investments-drop-energy-storage-costs-threaten-natural-gas-industry/#309bb8cd7c3b

Quote
Editor's Pick48,188 viewsOct 29, 2019, 12:00am
Huge Battery Investments Drop Energy-Storage Costs Faster Than Expected, Threatening Natural Gas

The global energy transition is happening faster than the models predicted, according to a report released today by the Rocky Mountain Institute, thanks to massive investments in the advanced-battery technology ecosystem.

Previous and planned investments total $150 billion through 2023, RMI calculates—the equivalent of every person in the world chipping in $20. In the first half of 2019 alone, venture-capital firms contributed $1.4 billion to energy storage technology companies.

“These investments will push both Li-ion and new battery technologies across competitive thresholds for new applications more quickly than anticipated,” according to RMI. “This, in turn, will reduce the costs of decarbonization in key sectors and speed the global energy transition beyond the expectations of mainstream global energy models.”

Quote
New natural-gas plants risk becoming stranded assets (unable to compete with renewables+storage before they’ve paid off their capital cost), while existing natural-gas plants cease to be competitive as soon as 2021, RMI predicts.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3321 on: October 31, 2019, 05:49:39 PM »
Is this the beginning of the end for natural gas?

https://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2019/10/31/eqt-cuts-spending-on-natural-gas-drilling-in-2019.html

Quote
EQT cuts spending on natural gas drilling in 2019, 2020
By Paul J. Gough  – Reporter, Pittsburgh Business Times

EQT Corp. trimmed more than $100 million from its capital budget for this year and will cut it by more than $500 million from its 2020 plan as it works to implement a highly choreographed system of natural gas drilling.

The Pittsburgh-based natural gas driller, which was taken over by a new management team in early July led by Toby Z. Rice, on Thursday provided its first quarterly financial report that took place under the Rice tenure. It also provided a highly anticipated look at what's going on near the drill bit in 2019 and what it plans in 2020. EQT, the country's largest independent natural gas producer, is a bellwether for the Marcellus and Utica shale industries. Early indications see a continued down market for natural gas overall.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3322 on: October 31, 2019, 08:11:03 PM »
Keystone Pipeline Leaks More Than 350,000 Gallons of Oil in North Dakota
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/468353-keystone-pipeline-spills-over-350000-gallons-of-oil-in-north-dakota?amp

The Keystone pipeline has spilled hundreds of thousands of gallons of crude oil into North Dakota this week, The New York Times reports.

The pipeline has leaked roughly 383,000 gallons of crude oil, impacting an estimated half-acre of wetland, according to state environmental regulators.

Pipeline owner TC Energy shut down the pipeline after the leak was detected.

President Trump, just days into his term, opened the door for TC Energy to continue its construction of the pipeline extension after former President Obama denied it a permit in 2015.

This is not the first oil spill along the Keystone pipeline system; an incident in 2017 caused more than 407,000 gallons of crude oil to cover agricultural land in South Dakota in a rural area near the North Dakota border.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3323 on: November 03, 2019, 03:30:45 PM »
Saudi Aramco IPO: World's most profitable company to go public
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50070823

Quote
Saudi Aramco is thought to be worth about $1.2tn (£927bn).
...
Saudi Aramco is worth $1.2tn, according to analysis from financial news service Bloomberg, although Riyadh would prefer a valuation of $2tn, which is one reason the company's share sale has been delayed a number of times.
...
Either way, it is phenomenally profitable. For the first half of 2019, it posted a net profit of $46.9bn, almost all of which was paid out in dividends to the Saudi state.

Any company that profitable will attract a high price. By comparison, for the same time period, Apple, the world's largest company by value currently, posted a net profit of $21.6bn, and Exxon Mobil, the largest listed oil company, made $5.5bn.

PE 1200/46.9 = 25.6 rather high if you expect trouble but perhaps the trouble just pushes higher cost producers out of the market and this low cost producer continues making profits and gains a more dominant market position.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3324 on: November 03, 2019, 08:48:42 PM »
UK Halts All Fracking Operations In The Country
November 2nd, 2019
Quote
The UK government has issued an order halting all fracking operations in the country effective immediately. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland already have measures in place against fracking. Government ministers also issued a warning to shale gas companies that it will not support future fracking projects. The Guardian calls the announcement “a crushing blow to companies that had hopes of profiting from one of the few remaining opportunities for  to growth in the fossil fuel industry.” The decision came after years of bitter opposition to fracking by environmental advocacy groups and many local communities.

The halt to fracking was ordered after a report from the Oil and Gas Authority warned it was not possible to rule out “unacceptable” consequences for those living near fracking sites or to predict the magnitude of earthquakes that fracking might trigger.The government said it would not agree to any future fracking “until compelling new evidence is provided” that proves fracking could be safe. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/02/uk-halts-all-fracking-operations-in-the-country/

Apparently this happened on Saturday.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3325 on: November 04, 2019, 09:52:14 PM »
Each cold season in North America brings climate collapse closer. This region is a leader in the production of hard-to-recover oil and gas. In connection, each cold season leads to another increase in fossil fuel consumption for heating.

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49


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Congrats Lower 48. The Earth as a whole is having the 2nd warmest year-to-date. The Lower 48 is having their 48th warmest of the last 71 years according the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis.



GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3326 on: November 05, 2019, 06:14:31 AM »
Is this the beginning of the end for natural gas?

Biggest NO ever.

The stuff is so cheap, that the only cost is the infrastructure.

This is why where the pipes don't exist, they just flare it.

But it is the electrical source of the future for at least a decade or two (probably many more).

big time oops

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3327 on: November 05, 2019, 06:57:20 AM »
Audits of Alberta Energy Regulator Expose a Broken Agency: Real News Network

Fully captured by the industry and corrupt to the core, explicitly ignoring Alberta legislation to make things easier for the industry. The story of Canada's own petro-state, Alberta.

Quote
The three reports boil down to a number of findings. Specifically regarding to the Ellis Affair, but I think they’re quite emblematic of the regulator as a whole. What these investigations found is, first of all, that the regulator fails to follow legislation, that it fails to follow its own policy, that there’s insufficient supervision by the board. The Auditor General also found that the AER operates under a culture of fear, where whistle blowers’ protection run clear, and you have to be legislated. Underlings at the regulator are quite hesitant to speak up when the culture at the top, from Ellis on down, is reflected in the sort of shenanigans we saw with ICORE.

Quote
The regulator, when it’s captured by industry, it’s serving the industry’s interests to the detriment of the public’s interests. That’s more than true of the regulator, who makes 40 to 60 thousand approvals for the industry, licenses and et cetera, every year. Every time a landowner or another stakeholder has an objection to any one of those approvals, there’s supposed to be a review. There’s supposed to be a hearing by the quasi-judicial hearing commissioners at the regulator.

Quote
Those hearing commissioners at the AER only operate three to five hearings a year. 99.9% of the regulators decisions have no review. Stakeholders and landowners don’t have a chance to object, and that’s the sort of culture and system that the regulator has established, and it was personified by Ellis. He’s not the root of the problem, it’s not a cancer that can be cut out. Some of his closest associates were fired, were removed from the regulator last week, but that doesn’t resolve the fundamental problems.

Quote
Industry would rather put money in its pocket, then spending money cleaning up. They’re going to do that, unless the regulator forces them to do otherwise. The Ellis Affair demonstrates the problematic culture and operations of the regulator, that’s in need of deep, deep reforms in order for what remains of Alberta’s carbon to be produced responsibly. If it’s going to be done so, we need a quality regulator. That’s something Alberta just simply does not have today.

https://therealnews.com/stories/audit-alberta-energy-regulator-expose-broken-agency

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3328 on: November 05, 2019, 09:01:19 PM »
Is this the beginning of the end for natural gas?

Biggest NO ever.

The stuff is so cheap, that the only cost is the infrastructure.

This is why where the pipes don't exist, they just flare it.

But it is the electrical source of the future for at least a decade or two (probably many more).

LOL.  Given current prices and cost trends, at least 70% of the natural gas projects (wells, pipelines, storage tanks, LNG tankers and power plants) will be stranded assets before the end of their useful life.  In a few years, it will be hard to find a bank willing to invest in new natural gas projects.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/renewables-storage-poised-to-undercut-natural-gas-prices-increase-strande/562674/

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Renewables, storage poised to undercut natural gas prices, increase stranded assets: RMI

If all proposed gas plants are built, 70% of those investments will be rendered uneconomic by 2035, according to the Rocky Mountain Institute.

Carbon-free resources are now cost competitive with new natural gas plants, according to a pair of reports released Monday by the Rocky Mountain Institute.

Wind, solar and storage projects, combined with demand-side management, have reached a "tipping point," one report finds, meaning they're now able to compete alongside natural gas on price while providing the same reliability services. But unlike the fluctuating price of fuels, these technologies' prices are expected to continue dropping, the reports' authors told Utility Dive.

Quote
But RMI's research said natural gas investments may not be prudent 10 years down the line.

"I don't think there's a credible story that [the price of] gas is going to go down," Mark Dyson, electricity principal at RMI and author on both reports, told Utility Dive. "And it's not clear that it's going to go up either, but even with it at its current prices, renewables are starting to undercut it … So, we do see this risk of ... uneconomic assets, gas plants that won't be used,  because they're now out-competed by renewables."

Quote
Clean energy portfolios, defined as an optimized combination of wind, solar, storage and demand-side management, are cheaper than 90% of the 88 gas-fired projects proposed across the U.S., according to RMI, which could save customers an estimated $29 billion and reduce carbon emissions 100 million tons per year if they replaced those proposed gas projects.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3329 on: November 06, 2019, 02:18:53 AM »
I know of a few banks that will be willing to invest in natural gas projects, we can start with the state-owned banks of Russia (and probably the state banks/treasuries of Saudi Arabia, Iran etc.) which desperately needs the export revenue, and China that desperately needs the NG to replace/stop the need for imports from "not so friendly" countries such as Australia, Canada and the US and to produce more electricity to help replace ICEs and feed their economic growth.

Then there is the small issue of space heating, i.e. not freezing to death in the middle of winter in places like Russia, Canada, and the Northern/Mid-Western US - especially if we get a fracking bust.

Then of course there is the small issue that renewables are not growing fast enough (actually the growth rate is decelerating as I have detailed elsewhere in the renewables area) to offset the increase in overall energy demand at a global trend rate of GDP growth of 3.5%.

Then there is the battery issue - i.e. nowhere near enough growth in global battery capacity during the next two plus decades to obviate the need for gas plants and therefore they will get subsidized as the "least worst" type of fossil fuel standby systems.

This is just reality.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3330 on: November 06, 2019, 06:40:49 PM »
OPEC is starting to include electric vehicle growth cutting demand for oil into their forecasts.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Braces-For-Drastic-Drop-In-Oil-Demand.html

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OPEC Braces For Drastic Drop In Oil Demand
By Nick Cunningham - Nov 05, 2019


OPEC Braces For Drastic Drop In Oil Demand
By Nick Cunningham - Nov 05, 2019, 7:00 PM CST
Join Our Community
 
OPEC admitted that demand for its oil over the next few years could be drastically weaker than it previously thought, due to a combination of a weakening economy, rising supply elsewhere, and pressure from climate activists.

In its World Oil Outlook, OPEC said that demand for its oil may only reach 32.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2024, a figure that is substantially lower than the 35 mb/d from last year’s estimate. Demand is still expected to grow in non-OECD countries going forward, but OPEC admitted that demand may peak in the OECD in 2020.

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Meanwhile, the attention paid to the risks of demand destruction in the OPEC report is notable. The phrase “climate change” appears nearly 50 times in the report and the cartel acknowledged that electric vehicles are “gaining momentum.”

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3331 on: November 07, 2019, 06:26:24 PM »
Canadian oil and gas producers are also struggling with the low prices due to inventory builds and decreased demand forecasts.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Another-Canadian-Oil-Gas-Producer-Bites-The-Dust.html

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Another Canadian Oil & Gas Producer Bites The Dust
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 06, 2019, 2:30 PM CST

Calgary-based Houston Oil & Gas Ltd has become the latest victim of the struggling oil and gas sector in Canada, ceasing operations as lower oil and natural gas prices and an investor exodus continues to weaken Alberta’s energy sector.

Houston Oil & Gas Ltd operated some 1,200 wells in Alberta, of which 95 percent were gas wells and 5 percent, oil wells.

But Houston Oil & Gas has informed the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) that it is halting operations and no longer has any employees, CBC News reports, citing court documents

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3332 on: November 10, 2019, 06:31:03 PM »
Aramco IPO Prospectus Flags Peak Oil Demand Risk in 20 Years

but they still value themselves @ 1.5 trillion bucks.

Quote
Rather than providing its own assessment, Aramco used a forecast from industry consultant IHS Markit Ltd. that forecasts oil demand to peak around 2035. Under that scenario, demand growth for crude and other oil liquids will be “leveling off” at that time.2 hours ago
Aramco IPO Prospectus Flags Peak Oil Demand Risk in 20 ...
from Bloomberg that I won't pay to look at more than the headlines.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3333 on: November 10, 2019, 08:46:10 PM »
The BBC version
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50365604

"Amid speculation that some foreign institutional investors are cool on the flotation, the government has reportedly pressed wealthy Saudi business families and institutions to invest, and many nationalists have labelled it a patriotic duty."

Another way for MBS to squeeze cash out of the Saudi elite? It might make sense as insurance payments for them, but I don't see how anybody else could find it worth buying.

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3334 on: November 12, 2019, 02:25:34 PM »
Only 1 in 10 of the world’s largest energy companies have made plans to get to net-zero emissions

Just 13 out of the largest 132 coal, electricity, and oil and gas companies have made commitments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, research published today has revealed.

Of these thirteen firms, nine set a date of 2050 to achieve net zero, while four set a date of 2025 or 2030.

only three pledged to eliminate indirect emissions

just over half (54%) explicitly acknowledge the aims of the Paris Agreement to pursue efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, but just 2 in 5 (39%) stated their support for these aims;
only 1 in 5 (20%) explicitly acknowledge the need to reach net-zero emissions.

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2019-11-12-only-1-10-world-s-largest-energy-companies-have-made-plans-get-net-zero-emissions

They clearly need some extra guidance.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3335 on: November 12, 2019, 06:07:16 PM »
Yet another article on Oilprice.com about the gas industry facing the stranded asset problem.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Natural-Gas-Is-Fighting-For-Survivial.html

Quote
Natural Gas Is Fighting For Survival
By Irina Slav - Nov 11, 2019, 3:00 PM CST


Natural Gas Is Fighting For Survival
By Irina Slav - Nov 11, 2019, 3:00 PM CST
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Natural gas has been hailed as the bridge fuel between the fossil fuel economy of the past and present, and the renewables economy of the future. With renewable energy costs falling steadily and considerably, some are beginning to worry that gas is facing increasingly fierce competition amid fast-growing supply.

A recent couple of reports from a nonprofit organization promoting renewable energy suggested solar and wind, plus storage, could become cheaper than most gas-fired power plants in the United States in just 16 years.

“We find that the natural gas bridge is likely already behind us,” one of the reports said, “and that continued investment in announced gas projects risks creating tens of billions of dollars in stranded costs by the mid-2030s, when new gas plants and pipelines will rapidly become uneconomic as clean energy costs continue to fall.”

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3336 on: November 12, 2019, 08:33:23 PM »
The latest fact check on the EIA's most recent projections for US oil and gas forecast production through 2050 has been published.  Shockingly, it appears that those projections may be a trifle optimistic.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-11-12/david-hughes-shale-reality-check-2019/

Quote
1.9 million. 13 trillion. 10 billion. These are the numbers that jumped off the page when I read PCI Fellow David Hughes’s latest “shale reality check” report on the U.S. government’s forecasts of domestic oil and gas production. To elaborate, these forecasts mean that by 2050:

1.9 million new oil and gas wells will need to be drilled;

$13 trillion will need to be spent to drill all those wells; and

10 billion barrels of tight oil production will be “missing” from shale plays to meet the reference case forecast for cumulative production.

These are just some of the crazy numbers behind the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest forecasts for U.S. oil and gas production through 2050.

Quote
Hughes’s Shale Reality Check 2019  finds that the EIA’s forecasts for major plays like the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Utica, and the Permian Basin are terribly unrealistic. Of the 13 shale plays analyzed, nine are rated as extremely optimistic, three highly optimistic, and only one moderately optimistic. And even with all this optimism, the overall forecast falls short by nearly ten billion barrels of tight oil, or 10% of the production volume required through 2050.

The EIA anticipates that tight oil production will be 38% higher in 2050 than in 2018 and shale gas 81% higher, with tight oil providing nearly 70% of all US oil production over the next three decades and shale gas 74% of all gas produced over that same period. For the shale portion alone, this would require over 1.5 million new wells to be drilled at a cost of roughly $11 trillion, and would consume by 2050 most of the proven reserves and unproven resources of tight oil the EIA estimates exist. For good or bad, David Hughes finds that this rosy forecast is highly unlikely to materialize.


gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3337 on: November 14, 2019, 07:44:34 PM »
The latest fact check on the EIA's most recent projections for US oil and gas forecast production through 2050 has been published.  Shockingly, it appears that those projections may be a trifle optimistic.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-11-12/david-hughes-shale-reality-check-2019/

Quote
1.9 million. 13 trillion. 10 billion. These are the numbers that jumped off the page when I read PCI Fellow David Hughes’s latest “shale reality check” report on the U.S. government’s forecasts of domestic oil and gas production. To elaborate, these forecasts mean that by 2050:

1.9 million new oil and gas wells will need to be drilled;

$13 trillion will need to be spent to drill all those wells; and

10 billion barrels of tight oil production will be “missing” from shale plays to meet the reference case forecast for cumulative production.

These are just some of the crazy numbers behind the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest forecasts for U.S. oil and gas production through 2050.

Quote
Hughes’s Shale Reality Check 2019  finds that the EIA’s forecasts for major plays like the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Utica, and the Permian Basin are terribly unrealistic. Of the 13 shale plays analyzed, nine are rated as extremely optimistic, three highly optimistic, and only one moderately optimistic. And even with all this optimism, the overall forecast falls short by nearly ten billion barrels of tight oil, or 10% of the production volume required through 2050.

The EIA anticipates that tight oil production will be 38% higher in 2050 than in 2018 and shale gas 81% higher, with tight oil providing nearly 70% of all US oil production over the next three decades and shale gas 74% of all gas produced over that same period. For the shale portion alone, this would require over 1.5 million new wells to be drilled at a cost of roughly $11 trillion, and would consume by 2050 most of the proven reserves and unproven resources of tight oil the EIA estimates exist. For good or bad, David Hughes finds that this rosy forecast is highly unlikely to materialize.

This has the fingermarks of Trump's acolytes currently ruining the EIA all over it - simply fleshing out the absurd dreams of Trump. They obviously do not read the Houston Chronicle - which one would assume is of interest to the EIA.  "Data? Reality? Don't be silly, this is for the boss.."

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Has-the-peak-of-the-shale-revolution-come-and-14532327.php
Has the peak of the shale revolution come and gone?
Quote
The shale revolution transformed the United States into the world’s biggest producer of oil and natural gas in a little more than a decade. But now the industry is facing the prospect that the shale boom has peaked and the best days are behind it as drilling activity declines, jobs dwindle, and many of the prime oil-producing spots are depleted.....

.......a weak 2019 with a more challenging 2020 on the horizon amid middling oil prices, abundant supplies, rising bankruptcies, growing climate change concerns and historically low Wall Street sentiment. The trends are dire enough that energy analysts at the New York investment research firm Evercore ISI this month declared, “The oil ‘shale revolution’ is over. Finally.”....

......since the end of 2018, drilling activity has steadily declined, with the number of operating rigs plunging 20 percent nationally over the past year. The rig count in the heart of the shale boom, the Permian Basin in West Texas, is down 15 percent.

......“It appears we’ve already peaked,” said Evercore ISI analyst James West. “Investors are damn near catatonic."....

A steady flow of capital is particularly vital for developing shale fields, which require an endless treadmill of drilling. After initial bursts of large volumes of crude, the wells deplete faster than conventional wells, requiring the constant drilling of new wells to keep up production.....

.....the Red Queen’s warning to Alice in Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking-Glass”: “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!” Ultimately, Terreson and West contend, shale drillers will be more active in the state of Delaware — where many firms file for bankruptcy — than in the Delaware Basin, the Permian’s still-booming western lobe.....

......a baseball analogy to describe the state of the shale industry — “Probably in the seventh inning of a nine-inning game.”

While production from the Permian is expected to keep rising as world’s biggest oil companies — including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and BP — gobble up acreage and smaller companies, output has nearly plateaued in the Eagle Ford and Bakken. Oklahoma’s SCOOP and STACK shale plays and Louisiana’s Austin Chalk have disappointed thus far......

.......Shale capital spending already has fallen an average of about 8 percent this year, according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt, and Co., and could fall up to another 25 percent next year. Layoffs would abound from the West Texas oilfield to the white-collar corporate centers in Houston. They’ve already started. Texas has shed about 5,000 oil and gas jobs over approximately the past three months, according to the Texas Workforce Commission.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

mitch

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3338 on: November 14, 2019, 09:17:39 PM »
The EIA being overly optimistic about fossil fuel production is not a new phenomenon, although Trump appointees may be pushing things further out to right field.  The other important point is that tight oil drillers are essentially mining their investors, not providing profits. There will be a tipping point, where many cannot raise  sufficient money to continue.  At that point there will be some major chaos in the oil patch. 

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3339 on: November 15, 2019, 11:12:35 PM »
I have been waiting for this tipping point for a while, being astounded at how long this money losing pony can be kept moving forward.

If we have a recession the US may have to print a few more trillion to bail out the frackers as well as the bankers and automobile industry, whilst the refrain will still be "how do we pay for medicare for all?". I can very much see the US state, especially with Trump, finding sneaky ways to bail the frackers out. Have to keep those "freedom molecules" flowing.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3340 on: November 15, 2019, 11:53:03 PM »
Fracked shale wells deplete quickly, often losing 75% to 90% of their initial producing capacity within a year.  So to keep production level, oil and gas companies need to be constantly drilling new wells to replace production losses due to the rapid depletion.  In the US, hundreds of fewer wells are being drilled this year compared to last year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Crashes-Again-Loses-Nearly-100-Rigs-In-3-Months.html

Quote
U.S. Rig Count Crashes Again: Loses Nearly 100 Rigs In 3 Months
By Julianne Geiger - Nov 15, 2019, 12:20 PM CST

The US oil and gas rig count continued its downward slide this week, according to Baker Hughes, as the rig count piles on a string of losses with a drop of 11 rigs for the week, according to Baker Hughes.

For oil rigs specifically, this week marks eleven decreases out of the last thirteen weeks, falling 96 rigs in that timeframe.

The total oil and gas rig count now stands at 806, or 276 down from this time last year.

The total number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased by 10 according to the report, reaching 674. The number of active gas rigs fell by 1 to reach 129.

Oil rigs have seen a loss of 214 rigs year on year, with gas rigs down 65 since this time last year.

wdmn

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3341 on: November 16, 2019, 12:09:39 AM »
Cross posting this here since this thread gets more views:

Saudi Aramco, the world's most profitable company, is going public this weekend.

In the prospectus released for the IPO they predict that peak oil demand will occur in 2035. In one scenario it occurs as early as 2025, and in another as late as 2045, but 2035 is the date given as expected.

https://www.saudiaramco.com/-/media/images/investors/saudi-aramco-prospectus-en.pdf?la=en&hash=8DE2DCD689D6E383BB8F4C393033D8964C9F5585

edmountain

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3342 on: November 16, 2019, 09:00:23 PM »
An interesting article by Barry Saxifrage in the National Observer last week that illustrates nicely the impossibility of reducing GHG emissions while at the same time continuing to invest in fossil fuel projects like LNG.

I think it also illustrates the fallacy which continues to be espoused by governments that the world can somehow hope to meet net zero by 2050 without major disruptions to lifestyle. The corollary of this is that there is no realistic path ahead that leads to anything less that a 2°C warming by 2050.

Quote
For example, in the 2030 scenario shown in the chart, British Columbians would have to do the equivalent of making every passenger vehicle electric and shutting off the gas lines to every home — just to offset the rise in pollution from the new LNG industry. And then, to meet B.C.'s climate goals, the rest of the provincial economy would have to cut emissions by two-thirds in the next decade.



Source: https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/11/08/analysis/lng-vs-climate-5-charts-show-burden-british-columbians


sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3343 on: November 19, 2019, 07:06:41 AM »
Aramco underperforms out the gate:

"In its original prospectus, published on 9 November, Aramco said the domestic IPO would be made available to institutional investors outside the US according to Regulation S of the US Securities Act of 1933, and inside the US under the Rule 144A of the US Securities Act."

"But on Sunday, in an addendum to the IPO prospectus, Aramco said that it had removed any reference to such regulations"

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-oil-giant-aramco-valued-17-trillion-blockbuster-ipo

This is new improved Enron, now with bone saws and beheadings.

sidd
 

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3344 on: November 20, 2019, 09:43:03 PM »
Asia's demand for natural gas is decreasing for several reasons, including slower economic growth and cheaper renewables.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/112019-twin-woes-for-asia-gas-demand-slowing-economies-plenty-of-fuel-oil

Quote
Analysis: Twin woes for Asia gas demand - slowing economies, plenty of fuel oil

 Singapore — An anticipated softer approach by some Asian governments in pushing coal-to-gas switching because of feeble economic growth and rising fuel oil supplies due to stricter shipping fuel norms may cast a shadow on the region's appetite for gas, analysts told S&P Global Platts.

While Asia's biggest energy consumers struggle due to slowing growth -- China is witnessing its slowest GDP growth in decades and India's economy is facing headwinds -- the argument to speedily replace coal with relatively expensive gas under the current economic climate is a tough sell for policy makers.



Quote
After years of technological improvements, renewable fuel sources are now progressively able to compete with fossil fuels on an equal footing and are projected to be consistently more affordable by 2020, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3345 on: November 21, 2019, 07:04:55 AM »
Have you read rboyd's posts WRT China's energy concerns?
Terry

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3346 on: November 21, 2019, 06:36:24 PM »
Yes.  He seems to think that China is acting like a 1930s Japan and trying to avoid an upcoming oil boycott.  Only with coal plants.

They could of course build renewable resources and not need to rely on coal, so the whole scenario seems a bit far-fetched.

Given that coal will no longer be used in the 2030s and natural gas is on the way out, it doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense.

But if he can get it by his thesis advisor, then good for him.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3347 on: November 22, 2019, 07:43:44 AM »
Ken,

Maybe you should have a chat with the Chinese leadership, as Premier Li Keqiang very recently stated "Coal remains China's primary energy resource, and it is important to come up with sound plans for its exploitation and accelerate the development of coal transportation and power transmission channels". Their latest ultra super critical plants are getting CO2 emissions close to that of natural gas, after much state investment. The Chinese government has also removed all subsidies from renewables, and is growing its use of natural gas extremely rapidly (18% in 2018). Their plan is for renewables to provide 20% of primary energy consumption in 2040.Wind capacity growth is at about 12% per annum and solar capacity growth will fall to 23% per annum this year.

Coal still supplies nearly 50% of primary energy consumption in the Asia Pacific, and its production and use there is growing because its cheap and plentiful..Over 75% of coal use is in the Asia Pacific region (less than 10% in North America, and less than 10% in Europe). Coal use in Asia Pac. will probably not peak until the mid 2020's and still be around 30%-40% of primary energy during the 2030's.

Or perhaps you should have a chat with the German leadership who are standing up to the US so that they can get the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to feed their growing natural gas needs?

Or maybe they are all completely wrong. Sadly, the deeper my research gets the darker the picture gets. We will have solar radiation management (SRM) geo-engineering well before we get rid of coal and gas.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201910/12/WS5da1134da310cf3e3557004c.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/coal-is-still-king-in-southeast-asia-despite-clean-energy-efforts.html

https://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/three-months-left-to-kill-nord-stream-2/

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf
« Last Edit: November 22, 2019, 07:59:11 AM by rboyd »

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3348 on: November 22, 2019, 11:10:04 AM »
Much as I hate to see the Atlantic Council linked to, I'll consider the source.  :D


I consider their 3 month timeline from 11/20/2019 to be hopelessly optimistic. If it had been written 6 months earlier it would merely have been optimistic. ::)


Any ideas regarding how severely geo-engineering will effect photovoltaics? or when you think deployment will begin?
Terry

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3349 on: November 23, 2019, 12:03:21 AM »
Ken,

Maybe you should have a chat with the Chinese leadership, as Premier Li Keqiang very recently stated "Coal remains China's primary energy resource, and it is important to come up with sound plans for its exploitation and accelerate the development of coal transportation and power transmission channels". Their latest ultra super critical plants are getting CO2 emissions close to that of natural gas, after much state investment. The Chinese government has also removed all subsidies from renewables, and is growing its use of natural gas extremely rapidly (18% in 2018). Their plan is for renewables to provide 20% of primary energy consumption in 2040.Wind capacity growth is at about 12% per annum and solar capacity growth will fall to 23% per annum this year.

Coal still supplies nearly 50% of primary energy consumption in the Asia Pacific, and its production and use there is growing because its cheap and plentiful..Over 75% of coal use is in the Asia Pacific region (less than 10% in North America, and less than 10% in Europe). Coal use in Asia Pac. will probably not peak until the mid 2020's and still be around 30%-40% of primary energy during the 2030's.

Or perhaps you should have a chat with the German leadership who are standing up to the US so that they can get the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to feed their growing natural gas needs?

Or maybe they are all completely wrong. Sadly, the deeper my research gets the darker the picture gets. We will have solar radiation management (SRM) geo-engineering well before we get rid of coal and gas.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201910/12/WS5da1134da310cf3e3557004c.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/coal-is-still-king-in-southeast-asia-despite-clean-energy-efforts.html

https://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/three-months-left-to-kill-nord-stream-2/

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf

Li sounds a lot like President Obama did in 2009 with his "all of the above" strategy.  Of course, 10 years ago renewables cost more than fossil fuels and we were in the deepest recession since the Great Depression.  I don't know what China's excuse is now that renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels.

China's manufacturing sector is in competition with Vietnam, Indonesia, India and other Asian countries that are rapidly switching from higher cost fossil fuels to lower cost renewables.  If China isn't careful, they'll end up losing their export markets to countries that can produce the goods more cheaply.

So while Li may talk a good game to placate the coal miners, oligarchs running the State Owned fossil fuel enterprises and Provincial Governors gunning for his job, ultimately, China is going to have to switch to the cheaper energy sources.

BTW, Indian coal power plants are already stranded assets and Vietnam is rapidly switching from coal to solar.  You need to keep up with the latest sources because even ones from last year are woefully out of date as the energy transition is accelerating.