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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3550 on: February 11, 2020, 07:55:25 PM »
Meanwhile,it looks like the markets might believe the coronavirus  economic effects can be contained. WTI crude up 46 cents to $ 50.03. Gold also down half a percent. They are not listening to the warnings from the WHO.

Natural gas (NYMEX) up 1 cent to $1.77. Still so low some more frackers will go bust as they need somewhat more to break-even. Other producers don't, as any money from LNG is jam on the Oil Bread & Butter, oil being the main output..

« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 08:29:18 PM by gerontocrat »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3551 on: February 11, 2020, 08:38:00 PM »
Sale of Philadelphia refinery nears; foes vow long legal fight
Quote
Opponents of Philadelphia Energy Solutions’ bankruptcy plan have vowed a long legal fight if a federal court this week approves a sale that would keep the largest East Coast oil refinery permanently shut while paying out bonuses to company executives.

A June fire at the 335,000 barrel-per-day PES refinery led the company to file for bankruptcy and shut the plant over the summer, laying off more than 1,000 workers and ending long-standing ties with dozens of businesses. The refinery endured years of financial trouble, hurt by poor access to U.S. crude oil production and heavy costs of complying with federal laws on blending biofuels with gasoline.
...
The unions and other unsecured creditors are pushing for PES to sell to a company that would restart the refinery operation. Another real estate developer, Industrial Realty Group, may present a plan at Wednesday’s hearing to purchase the PES site and lease it for refinery operations, the filings said.

PES, in its response to the objection on Monday, said no credible bidder has emerged with the intention to resume plant operations. Market conditions and damage from the fire also worked against resurrecting the refinery, PES attorneys said.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pes-bankruptcy-sale-objections/sale-of-philadelphia-refinery-nears-foes-vow-long-legal-fight-idUSKBN2052E9
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3552 on: February 11, 2020, 08:41:47 PM »
A couple of years ago I was at an master's presentation on the effect of shale oil development on the local communities. None of it was good:
- Benefits go to the "lucky" few that have the oil under their land, plus the state that collects oil taxes, plus some of the retailers and bars.
- The local community gets the mass immigration of young, bored and horny guys. Not good for local law and order and general safety.
- Each well required a ridiculous number of water tucks, and the impact of a wheel on the road is the square of the load. So the trucks destroy the roads, with the local community having to pick up the bill (also for all those extra police hours).

On balance, local communities seem to be net losers from such development.

These communities also have much higher traffic accident rates (due to all the trucks hauling equipment and the young, bored, horney and drunk guys).  Crime rates are higher too.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3553 on: February 11, 2020, 09:41:15 PM »
U.S. shale gas investors brace for write-downs amid price plunge
Quote
U.S. shale gas producers are ripe for further spending cuts and write-downs, investors and analysts said, with prices at four-year lows and China’s rejection of some gas imports weighing on earnings.

Natural gas production in the United States is at record levels, outpacing domestic consumption and leading to global supply glut. At the same time, China, the world’s largest importer of gas, has turned away shipments with its demand forecast to rise at the slowest pace in four years amid the coronavirus outbreak.

As a result, several large gas producers, have reduced the value of their production assets.

EQT Corp, the largest U.S. gas producer, recently said it would take a write-down of as much as $1.8 billion, following CNX Resources Corp, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp in reducing the value of gas properties.

U.S. shale gas producers’ Antero Resources Corp, Cabot Oil & Gas Corp and EQT kick off fourth-quarter results in coming days. Antero has pledged to sell assets while Cabot plans a 27% cut to its drilling budget. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-natgas-results/u-s-shale-gas-investors-brace-for-write-downs-amid-price-plunge-idUSL1N2AA133


Chevron says oil output share at Venezuela joint ventures dropped 16% in 2019
Quote
Chevron Corp’s share of oil output at its joint ventures in Venezuela with state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA dropped 16% in 2019 to 35,300 barrels per day (bpd), down from 42,000 bpd in 2018, a company spokesman said on Tuesday.

The drop mirrored the decline in crude output across the South American country last year, according to data provided to OPEC, as it suffered from crippling blackouts in March and April and U.S. sanctions on PDVSA aimed at ousting socialist President Nicolas Maduro.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-chevron/chevron-says-oil-output-share-at-venezuela-joint-ventures-dropped-16-in-2019-idUSKBN2052IF
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3554 on: February 12, 2020, 08:50:09 PM »
There are times I think humanity needs putting on "suicide watch".

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/eu-accused-of-climate-crisis-hypocrisy-after-backing-32-gas-projects
EU accused of climate crisis hypocrisy after backing 32 gas projects
MEPs support €29bn schemes, ‘locking Europe into burning fossil fuels for generations’

Quote
The EU has given its formal backing to 32 major gas infrastructure projects in a move critics say will lock Europe into burning fossil fuels for generations.

MEPs voted to support the European commission’s proposal by 443 votes to 169 on Wednesday, with 36 abstentions, provoking environmental groups to lament Brussels’ “hypocrisy” over the climate emergency.

The total cost of the infrastructure is estimated to be €29bn. Under the EU’s funding programme up to 50% of the costs of each project could be covered by European taxpayers.

The consulting firm Artelys has claimed in a report that the majority of the projects, stretching from Ireland to Croatia, are “unnecessary”.

Environmental groups said gas firms were enjoying the fruits of heavy lobbying and the sector’s advantageous position within the commission’s decision-making institutions.

An industry-led advisory body provides the European commission with forecasts on Europe’s future energy needs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3555 on: February 12, 2020, 10:09:37 PM »
North Dakota oil production is down.

https://www.minotdailynews.com/news/local-news/2020/01/nd-oil-production-down-from-previous-record-month/

Quote
ND oil production down from previous record month
Jan 18, 2020

BISMARCK – North Dakota’s latest oil production numbers show the state produced more than 1.51 million barrels of oil a day in November 2019, down more than 2,500 barrels a day from an October 2019 record

And it's expected to peak within five years.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/government-and-politics/4931699-Officials-say-ND-oil-production-could-plateau-within-5-years

Quote
Officials say ND oil production could plateau within 5 years
North Dakota Petroleum Council President Ron Ness emphasized to the committee that the state should plan for the not-so-distant future when oil tax revenues plateau and eventually begin to fall.
Written By: Jeremy Turley | Feb 11th 2020



BISMARCK — After several years of steady growth, oil production in North Dakota may level off in the next five years, a state official told lawmakers on Tuesday, Feb. 11.

Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms said he expects companies to drill up what remains in western North Dakota's "core" oil-producing area within the next two to five years.

"At that point, say five years from now, the drilling has to move out into the non-core areas, and that will yield lower producing wells," Helms told legislators on the interim Government Finance Committee. "It will become much, much more difficult to grow production at that point in time. ... We can now see that horizon from here."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3556 on: February 13, 2020, 02:04:13 AM »
Officials stressed it was a fire, not an explosion.

ExxonMobil refinery in Louisiana catches fire
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/02/12/ExxonMobil-refinery-in-Louisiana-catches-fire/2461581508760/
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bluice

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3557 on: February 13, 2020, 10:55:56 AM »
There are times I think humanity needs putting on "suicide watch".

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/eu-accused-of-climate-crisis-hypocrisy-after-backing-32-gas-projects
EU accused of climate crisis hypocrisy after backing 32 gas projects
MEPs support €29bn schemes, ‘locking Europe into burning fossil fuels for generations’

Quote
The EU has given its formal backing to 32 major gas infrastructure projects in a move critics say will lock Europe into burning fossil fuels for generations.

MEPs voted to support the European commission’s proposal by 443 votes to 169 on Wednesday, with 36 abstentions, provoking environmental groups to lament Brussels’ “hypocrisy” over the climate emergency.

The total cost of the infrastructure is estimated to be €29bn. Under the EU’s funding programme up to 50% of the costs of each project could be covered by European taxpayers.

The consulting firm Artelys has claimed in a report that the majority of the projects, stretching from Ireland to Croatia, are “unnecessary”.

Environmental groups said gas firms were enjoying the fruits of heavy lobbying and the sector’s advantageous position within the commission’s decision-making institutions.

An industry-led advisory body provides the European commission with forecasts on Europe’s future energy needs.
It’s sometimes hard to see any reason why humanity would solve the climate crisis.

I mean the EU is supposed to be leading in climate saving efforts. Then there are the trumps, bolsonaros and morrisons.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3558 on: February 13, 2020, 04:32:13 PM »
U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions lowered in 2019: report
February 11, 2020
Quote
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. fell 2.9 percent last year, according to a report published Tuesday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) found that the U.S. decline was the largest, at 140 million tonnes, of any country. It also noted that since 2000, U.S. emissions have decreased nearly one gigatonne.

"A 15% reduction in the use of coal for power generation underpinned the decline in overall US emissions in 2019," the report said.

Globally, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions flatlined at about 33 gigatonnes following two years of increases.

The IEA attributed that to fewer emissions from the power sector in advanced economies because of "the expanding role of renewable sources" as well as "fuel switching from coal to natural gas and higher nuclear power output."
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/482601-us-energy-related-carbon-dioxide-emissions-lowered-in-2019-report
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3559 on: February 13, 2020, 05:48:59 PM »
Used to be you'd only see articles about the potential fossil fuel stranded assets in magazines like Rolling Stone.  Now they're appearing on industry websites, this one from oilprice.com, summarizing a column in the Financial Times.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A-Third-Of-Fossil-Fuel-Assets-May-Soon-Be-Stranded.html

Quote
A Third Of Fossil Fuel Assets May Soon Be Stranded
By Alex Kimani - Feb 12, 2020

Fossil fuel companies hold vast oil, gas and coal riches that they frequently tout to the investing universe to help elevate their market values. However, not a single energy company has ever told investors about the potential effects on the environment if all their hydrocarbon reserves were burned.

Quote
Yet, the specter that these assets might one day end up stranded and theoretically worthless as the clamor for clean energy heats up looms large.

According to estimates in the Financial Times’ Lex column, nearly $900 billion worth of reserves - or about one-third of the value of big oil and gas companies - is at risk of one day becoming worthless as market and policy forces continue to undercut hydrocarbon economics due to the threat of climate change.

In effect, these companies could see a third of their value evaporate if governments aggressively attempt to restrict the rise in temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the rest of this century and avert catastrophic climate change as per Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates.

Consequently, investors are likely to increasingly price in the risk of asset writedowns by the world’s leading oil and gas companies unless a solution to the ongoing climate change is found within the next decade.

In the US, lenders won't extend more credit to fossil fuel companies because they've become unprofitable in the face of competition from cheaper renewables.  Now those companies wont be able to sell stock.

Without new infusions of cash, their exploration and expansion will cease.  Given how quickly current oil fields, especially those relying on fracked wells, decline, production will crash.


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3560 on: February 13, 2020, 05:52:58 PM »
Could they pump the “stranded” oil for chemical synthesis?
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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3561 on: February 13, 2020, 06:02:10 PM »
Global oil demand set to see first quarterly decline in over 10 years, IEA says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html

Global oil demand is now expected to see its first quarterly contraction in over a decade, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as the new coronavirus and widespread shutdown of China’s economy hits demand for crude.

Demand is now expected to fall by 435,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020, down from the same period a year ago, and marking the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years, the IEA said in its monthly oil market report Thursday.

---------------------------

The early stages of the outbreak crisis led to a 70% fall in international air traffic in China while domestic air travel fell 50%, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3562 on: February 13, 2020, 06:02:41 PM »
US natural gas producers are decreasing production.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Shale-Gas-Drillers-Are-Facing-A-Perfect-Storm.html

Quote
Shale Gas Drillers Are Facing A Perfect Storm
By Nick Cunningham - Feb 12, 2020

Natural gas prices under $2/MMBtu have hit Appalachian shale gas drillers hard, but the longer the gas glut wears on, the deeper the problems will become.

Quote
U.S. nymex natural gas prices have been trading below $2/MMBtu since January, leading to a selloff in the sector, with particular pain on Appalachian gas drillers. EQT, the largest gas producer in the country, has seen its share prices fall by half since the start of the year, and it is down by 75 percent since late 2018.

Gas production in Appalachia appears to be slamming on the brakes because of the fall in prices, and it will take some time to rebound. “Of course, we may see growth being restored in the medium term, but in our view a sustainable Henry Hub gas-price environment of at least $2.5 per MMBtu is needed for this to happen,” Rystad Energy said in a new report.

The problem for Appalachian gas drillers is that gas output in the Permian is still growing, and it is almost entirely unresponsive to price signals. Shale companies are focused on drilling for oil, and ever-increasing volumes of associated gas are coming out of the ground. At the same time, flaring continues to soar.

Quote
Regardless of production, the financial stress continues, and not just for Appalachia. The entire shale complex is really on shaky ground. Just a quick scan of announcements reveals quite a bit.

On Tuesday, Noble Energy took a $1.1 billion write-down in its natural gas assets in the Eagle Ford, resulting in a fourth-quarter loss of $1.21 billion. The company cut 2020 spending by $400 million compared to an earlier spending plan. Shares were down by 2 percent during midday trading.

Whiting Petroleum, a large Bakken producer, saw its shares crash on Tuesday and trading of its shares were even frozen for a period of time because of extreme volatility. Seeking Alpha reported that there is “speculation that [Whiting] will hire advisors to review its capital structure.” Whiting’s shares were down more than 22 percent during midday trading on Tuesday.

Occidental Petroleum said on Tuesday that it expects to take a $1.7 billion impairment related to some assets that it swallowed up after its $38 billion takeover of Anadarko Petroleum. Occidental’s stock is down by nearly a third since the acquisition.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3563 on: February 13, 2020, 06:04:38 PM »
Could they pump the “stranded” oil for chemical synthesis?

"Renewable" natural gas collected from landfills, sewage treatment plants and the by-products of biochar manufacturing could provide the feedstock for chemicals.  It will be too expensive to keep drilling and pumping fossil fuels for those purposes.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3564 on: February 14, 2020, 07:55:40 PM »
The Coronavirus impact on oil demand appears to be getting worse.  There were no buyers for April futures contracts for oil because traders think the prices are going to continue to decrease.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Asias-Demand-For-Middle-East-Oil-Plunges-On-Coronavirus-Outbreak.html

Quote
Asia’s Demand For Middle East Oil Plunges On Coronavirus Outbreak
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 14, 2020

The spot market for Middle East crude cargoes loading in April was virtually non-existent this week, as demand continues to be depressed due to the coronavirus outbreak while buyers are waiting for cargoes to become even cheaper than they are now, trade sources told S&P Global Platts on Friday.

Quote
The slowdown in China’s industrial activity and the shutdown of factories amid the coronavirus outbreak is causing the worst shock to oil demand in over a decade, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said on Bloomberg last week.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3565 on: February 14, 2020, 10:55:15 PM »
Sneath at propublica/times-picayune/advocate: Louisana State is a fossil fuel subsidiary

"As the Bayou Bridge Pipeline was under construction in 2018, Anne White Hat ventured deep into the Atchafalaya Swamp in St. Martin Parish to protest it."

"She [Anne White Hat] was arrested on two felony counts related to trespassing. She posted a $21,000 bond and was released."

" the pipeline company itself had been trespassing at the time of White Hat’s arrest. The main owner, Energy Transfer Partners, had not obtained easement agreements ... penalty: a $450 fine "

"The judge who set White Hat’s bond at $21,000 was the same judge who imposed Energy Transfer Partners’ fine."

“This is yet one more in a long line of examples of how Louisiana laws are first made by oil and gas corporations and then are ignored by the same corporations if they feel like it,”

"Louisiana has blazed a trail for other states in discouraging environmental protests by raising the legal stakes for those who trespass ... can be traced to corporate lobbyists. BP and DuPont ... arguing that enhanced penalties would discourage attacks by terrorists"

"the state’s elected leaders have historically sided with industry"

"Legislators are trying to reduce local officials’ power to decide whether to exempt industry from local taxes."

" a larger, coordinated strategy. The three Louisiana lawmakers who sponsored the trespassing bill were members of the American Legislative Exchange Council"

" Between 1997 and 2016, the board rejected just eight of the 16,931 applications for relief through the Industrial Tax Exemption Program, for an approval rate of 99.95%, "

"coastal communities have become ever more susceptible to storm surges and sea level rise ... it’s undisputed that oil and gas exploration has played a key role — in part, by dredging 10,000 miles of canals."

"metropolitan New Orleans filed an audacious lawsuit that sought to hold 97 oil and gas companies accountable for damaging the region’s natural flood defenses ... the Legislature filed 20 separate bills in 2014 to gut the lawsuit ... Ultimately, the lawsuit was thrown out by U.S. District Judge Nannette Jolivette Brown, who said oil and gas companies had no legal obligation to pay the levee authority for wetland damage, a view upheld by an appeals court. The U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear the case."

"In 1997, former Gov. Mike Foster pressured the Louisiana Supreme Court to trim the sails of student law clinics after the Tulane Environmental Law Clinic helped St. James Parish residents fight a polyvinyl chloride plant ... residents — with the help of Tulane — filed a complaint with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ... Foster was apoplectic. He encouraged Tulane alumni and business leaders to reconsider their financial support for the university ... "

"The Tulane clinic has continued to garner the ire of industry over the last two decades. In 2010, Adley introduced another bill aimed at stopping the clinic from going after chemical plants"

“There is this systemwide hostility to people fighting back,”

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-louisiana-lawmakers-stop-residents-efforts-to-fight-big-oil-and-gas

Best justice money can buy.

sidd


gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3566 on: February 15, 2020, 04:22:36 PM »
Quote
"As the Bayou Bridge Pipeline was under construction in 2018, Anne White Hat ventured deep into the Atchafalaya Swamp in St. Martin Parish to protest it."

"She [Anne White Hat] was arrested on two felony counts related to trespassing. She posted a $21,000 bond and was released."

" the pipeline company itself had been trespassing at the time of White Hat’s arrest. The main owner, Energy Transfer Partners, had not obtained easement agreements ... penalty: a $450 fine "

"The judge who set White Hat’s bond at $21,000 was the same judge who imposed Energy Transfer Partners’ fine." “This is yet one more in a long line of examples of how Louisiana laws are first made by oil and gas corporations and then are ignored by the same corporations if they feel like it,”

"Louisiana has blazed a trail for other states in discouraging environmental protests by raising the legal stakes for those who trespass ... can be traced to corporate lobbyists. BP and DuPont ... arguing that enhanced penalties would discourage attacks by terrorists"

Best justice money can buy.

sidd
Humanity needs to be on "suicide watch".

The land is sinking, the sea is rising. Large parts of the Louisiana Boot are now uninhabitable, and they still avoid mentioning climate change in the bids for Federal Assistance.

First attachment - official vs "real" map.

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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3567 on: February 16, 2020, 09:02:21 AM »
Global oil demand set to see first quarterly decline in over 10 years, IEA says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html

Global oil demand is now expected to see its first quarterly contraction in over a decade, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as the new coronavirus and widespread shutdown of China’s economy hits demand for crude.

Demand is now expected to fall by 435,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020, down from the same period a year ago, and marking the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years, the IEA said in its monthly oil market report Thursday.

---------------------------

The early stages of the outbreak crisis led to a 70% fall in international air traffic in China while domestic air travel fell 50%, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
I never thought peak demand was possible, but it looks like real. I wonder how long it will take for the tourism industry to go back to 2019 levels of activity, furthermore companies are learning to work without moving people around all the time.
Peak demand was never descibed as what we see now, it was supposed to be driven by technology.

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3568 on: February 16, 2020, 09:16:56 AM »
I look at it differently: if what it takes to have a single quarterly drop in demand is the fear of a global pamdemic, I'm guessing we are far from actual peak demand.

bluice

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3569 on: February 16, 2020, 10:13:41 AM »
Exactly. China, the 2nd largest economy in the world, is currently on hold. 40% of Asia outbound container shipping capacity and 5000 tons per day of air freight capacity has been removed temporarily.

Situation is not sustainable and it will not last.

Iain

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3570 on: February 16, 2020, 01:18:24 PM »
New cases have been decreasing over the last 3 days.

"Coronavirus: China announces drop in new cases for third straight day"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51519055
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Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3571 on: February 16, 2020, 01:30:49 PM »
New cases have been decreasing over the last 3 days.

"Coronavirus: China announces drop in new cases for third straight day"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51519055

How many lives would social stability be worth for the party ? I think most people will try to hide for the government. Only when there is no other option left they will go to the hospital. And they don't have the same level of control in the countryside. And for every day they stretch it, the risk gets bigger.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3572 on: February 16, 2020, 02:50:21 PM »
Exactly. China, the 2nd largest economy in the world, is currently on hold. 40% of Asia outbound container shipping capacity and 5000 tons per day of air freight capacity has been removed temporarily.

Situation is not sustainable and it will not last.

But when this crisis is over, the situation will not be the same as before.  Some businesses (including oil companies) will have failed; some will have found alternatives to fossil fuels; some will have invested in new efficiencies, or new locations that require less shipping, to make their business run better — because they had to.  It’s fair to expect the oil consumption curve will not resume its prior growth rate (or plateau level).
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3573 on: February 16, 2020, 06:49:47 PM »
Officials stressed it was a fire, not an explosion.

ExxonMobil refinery in Louisiana catches fire
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/02/12/ExxonMobil-refinery-in-Louisiana-catches-fire/2461581508760/

"The orange blaze illuminated the sky and frightened nearby residents but plant officials said there was no impact for air quality."


They consider us idiots.

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3574 on: February 16, 2020, 07:06:15 PM »
Exactly. China, the 2nd largest economy in the world, is currently on hold. 40% of Asia outbound container shipping capacity and 5000 tons per day of air freight capacity has been removed temporarily.

Situation is not sustainable and it will not last.

But when this crisis is over, the situation will not be the same as before.  Some businesses (including oil companies) will have failed; some will have found alternatives to fossil fuels; some will have invested in new efficiencies, or new locations that require less shipping, to make their business run better — because they had to.  It’s fair to expect the oil consumption curve will not resume its prior growth rate (or plateau level).
Maybe this pandemia will change the way we manage the world, just like the oil crisis un the 1970's did.
https://sites.fas.harvard.edu/~histecon/energyhistory/graphs/Total_energy_consumption_in%20_Europe_darkversion.pdf
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 07:12:15 PM by etienne »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3575 on: February 16, 2020, 07:59:45 PM »
Exactly. China, the 2nd largest economy in the world, is currently on hold. 40% of Asia outbound container shipping capacity and 5000 tons per day of air freight capacity has been removed temporarily.

Situation is not sustainable and it will not last.

But when this crisis is over, the situation will not be the same as before.  Some businesses (including oil companies) will have failed; some will have found alternatives to fossil fuels; some will have invested in new efficiencies, or new locations that require less shipping, to make their business run better — because they had to.  It’s fair to expect the oil consumption curve will not resume its prior growth rate (or plateau level).
Maybe this pandemia will change the way we manage the world, just like the oil crisis un the 1970's did.
https://sites.fas.harvard.edu/~histecon/energyhistory/graphs/Total_energy_consumption_in%20_Europe_darkversion.pdf

I was thinking of the Great Recession of 2008.  The U.S. economy has been teetering on the edge of another recession for a while now.  The majority of (U.S.) pundits are still saying the next one will not be that bad, but a few say otherwise.  Dangerous curves ahead.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3576 on: February 18, 2020, 01:18:43 PM »
OPEC Underestimates China Virus
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-16/opec-underestimates-china-virus-s-impact-on-oil-demand?srnd=opinion
Quote
Lack of parts from China has already forced Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors to halt some car production temporarily in South Korea, while Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV plans to do the same in Serbia. Just-in-time supply chains are starting to show their fragility. There will be more to come as shipments from Chinese ports continue to suffer delays. South Korea’s government says economic impact from the virus is “unavoidable.” The impact won’t stop at South Korea.

In that light, OPEC’s forecast that global oil demand will be cut by just 440,000 barrels a day in the first quarter and by 230,000 barrels a day over the year as a whole looks like wishful thinking on the part of producers. It is doing them no favors, though. A delay in reducing supplies will only make the cuts needed later even deeper.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3577 on: February 18, 2020, 06:35:24 PM »
Qatar is delaying expansion of their large natural gas field due to the global glut of natural gas (and the low prices that the glut is causing).

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Qatar-Delays-Gas-Field-Expansion-Amid-Price-Slump.html

Quote
Qatar Delays Gas Field Expansion Amid Price Slump
By Irina Slav - Feb 17, 2020

Qatar Petroleum has decided to postpone the start of expansion operations at its North Field, four unnamed sources told Reuters.

Quote
Gas prices have been low for months amid a growing glut, falling demand for LNG in China, and still growing production, especially in the United States, casting a shadow over more than one project.

Qatar’s North Field, which it shares with Iran (South Pars), is the largest gas deposit in the world. Qatar had previously put a moratorium on any production expansion at the field, but two years ago it took many market players by surprise when it announced its plan to ramp up production. That decision was made as Australia began challenging—successfully—Qatar’s number-one position as the world’s largest LNG exporter and cheapest producer.

Quote
"I think Qatar has decided to firm up the capex of the project before they go to international oil companies. I think the decision should be ready by the end of 2020,” one of the Reuters sources said.

“Qatar’s cost base is very low compared to other projects but in today’s environment, every project has to compete for capital,” another said.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3578 on: February 18, 2020, 06:43:23 PM »
The coronavirus in China is also impacting other natural gas exporters' plans.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Worlds-Top-LNG-Producer-Is-In-Trouble.html

Quote
The World’s Top LNG Producer Is In Trouble
By Cyril Widdershoven - Feb 17, 2020

Global LNG markets are struggling with a glut of unprecedented levels.

International expansion in Australia, Qatar, Mozambique and Egypt, combined with a continuously strong US shale gas export drive, is pushing down prices further. Analysts have warned before that a possible LNG glut could end in tears, but nobody was expecting that the market would also be hit by a demand side shock such as China’s coronavirus. The last couple of weeks, major LNG export cargoes to China have been diverted to other clients or are still looking for a destination in an already woefully oversupplied market.

Quote
At the same time, the coronavirus has put the total global market on edge. Demand for oil and gas is feared to be hit very hard, even when current demand figures of China and others are way above what some analysts have been expecting the last weeks. Lower prices have enticed Chinese fill up storage tanks. Still, if Chinese authorities fail to contain the virus, Asian economies could come to a partial standstill, which would gravely impact demand for transportation fuels and natural gas.

Not only traditional LNG exporters, such as Qatar, or East Med producers like Egypt or Algeria, are being hit by the current glut. US shale gas exporters are now facing a major crisis too. Dreams about entering global strong markets with high price settings however have been destroyed, as due to an already existing gas glut, prices have been low already. US gas exports are now only contributing to the glut, pushing prices even further down. Booming U.S. exports combined with lower Asian demand is a major recipe for disaster, effecting most IOCs, but especially Shell, Total and ENI, as all have been concentrating their own investment and expansion strategies in natural gas. Some US producers, such as Chesapeake Energy are already fighting bankruptcy, and IOCs have been hit by a slump in profits.

For Arab producers, especially Qatar, Algeria or Egypt, the future is uncertain. New gas discoveries will need to be monetized to support economic growth and diversification plans. For Qatar current expansion plans are needed, not only for new exports but also to keep the international investors and operators interested in the success story of Qatari LNG. Algeria at the same time is looking at other routes to get additional cash to prop up its fledgling economy the coming years. Egypt’s Energy Hub strategy, in cooperation with Cyprus and Israel, is a matter of life or death. International cooperation and investment strategies are needed to the regional economy going. Without markets or clients, however, all will be put on ice, as no investor or IOC will be willing to spent another $10 billion on a possible new 8 million tons LNG train. In Qatar’s case, the planned expansion is slated to cost around $60 billion.

All eyes are currently on China, as the Asian giant has accounted for 40% of the global growth in LNG demand since 2015. Strategies were decided on demand projections for China to exceed 82 million tons per year by 2023. The same was expected, at lower volumes, for India and possibly other areas in Asia and even Europe. The current slump and the coronavirus effect has put all in doubt. A main concern will be that the LNG glut spirals out of control, pushing major operators over the edge too.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3579 on: February 18, 2020, 08:29:42 PM »
US oil industry expected to cut spending by 10-15% and restructure, Dallas Fed says
Quote
The Dallas Federal Reserve, which has the Permian basin in its economic region, expects the oil and gas sector to cut capital spending by 10% to 15% in 2020.

Rob Kaplan, president of the Fed district, said in an essay that the decline in oil production growth will have a substantial impact on the energy service companies. Some have already announced restructurings and layoffs, but he expects to see more of that, and 2020 will be a year of consolidation and cost cutting as well.
...
"In the U.S. more broadly, lower oil prices should benefit U.S. consumers by freeing up more of their disposable income for the consumption of non-oil goods and services," he wrote. But he added that since the U.S. is no longer a net importer of oil and refined products, the benefit of lower prices to U.S. GDP may be increasingly offset by the hit to energy producers.

"Changes in oil prices will increasingly redistribute income between sectors and states within the U.S., as opposed to impacting the transfer of income between the U.S. and other oil-exporting nations," he wrote.

U.S. oil has flooded onto the world market, and is one reason why West Texas Intermediate crude futures are languishing at about $51 per barrel as the energy market worries about the impact of the coronavirus on global demand. Oil is down 22% from its January high.

The Dallas Fed economists also expect energy consumers to increasingly reduce their reliance on fossil fuels. The economists said the IEA expects renewables to increase as a percentage of energy supply to the point where they could account for a third of energy consumption, under some scenarios, by 2040.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/us-oil-industry-expected-to-cut-spending-by-10-15percent-and-restructure-dallas-fed-says.html
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3580 on: February 18, 2020, 08:44:37 PM »
Exactly. China, the 2nd largest economy in the world, is currently on hold. 40% of Asia outbound container shipping capacity and 5000 tons per day of air freight capacity has been removed temporarily.

Situation is not sustainable and it will not last.

But when this crisis is over, the situation will not be the same as before.  Some businesses (including oil companies) will have failed; some will have found alternatives to fossil fuels; some will have invested in new efficiencies, or new locations that require less shipping, to make their business run better — because they had to.  It’s fair to expect the oil consumption curve will not resume its prior growth rate (or plateau level).

I agree.  And it will take a lot longer for the Chinese economy to recover than many experts are projecting.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051175/coronavirus-more-two-thirds-chinas-migrant-labourers-not-yet

Quote
Coronavirus: more than two thirds of China’s migrant labourers not yet back at work

    Less than one third of China’s 291 million migrant workers have returned to their jobs because of the coronavirus outbreak, the transport ministry says
    The delay could seriously disrupt China’s manufacturing and services sectors, which do not have the luxury of working from home
Orange Wang
Published 18 Feb, 2020

China is still weeks away from getting its economy back up to speed as most of the country’s migrant labourers have not yet returned to work because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Less than one third of China’s 291 million migrant workers – citizens with household registration in rural areas but who work in towns and cities – had returned from their hometowns by last Friday, Liu Xiaoming, a vice-transport minister, said at the weekend.

The transport ministry said passenger traffic on China’s roads, railways and aeroplanes was 12 million people on Sunday, about 20 per cent of the volume on the same day a year earlier.

Quote
Most provinces returned to work last week after an extended Lunar New Year, but a significant portion of the workforce is still in limbo
amid factory shutdowns and quarantine measures imposed on businesses.

Some 120 million migrant workers are expected to return to their jobs in the second half of February, bringing the workforce to about two thirds of its full capacity. The remaining 100 million will return in March if the virus – which has killed more than 1,800 people and infected over 70,000 – is brought under control, said Liu.

The delay could seriously disrupt China’s manufacturing and services sectors, which do not have the luxury of working from home.

Quote
China’s statistics bureau estimates there are about 174 million migrant workers employed outside their home provinces, although domestic migration could be much larger as the figure does not capture millions of white-collar office workers in big cities like Beijing and Shenzhen.

Quote
Shanghai was experiencing similar workforce issues. Two-thirds of factories in the city had kick-started operations by the end of last week, but 78 per cent did not have enough workers to resume full production, according to a survey of 109 firms conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai.

Other indicators have also pointed to the low-level of production plaguing China’s economy. The daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups, which are monitored closely by analysts to gauge the intensity of industrial production, dropped by 10 per cent from a year ago in the week ended February 14, according to the industrial website yimei180.com.

That's the short term problem.  China has some long term problems that are becoming more exposed by this event.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3050722/china-battles-coronavirus-prognosis-its-economy-poor-despite-silver

Quote
As China battles the coronavirus, the prognosis for its economy is poor, despite silver linings for some sectors

    The coronavirus outbreak has highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains. Service sectors, such as retail, hospitality and education, will be hit hard
    Health care manufacturers, e-commerce and fintech, however, may benefit
Chris Rowley
Published 16 Feb, 2020

Quote
However, this great economic renaissance and the rosy vision for the future have recently been tarnished. China’s gross domestic product growth has been slowing, although it is still far better than that of many other economies.

This trend has occurred amid growing anti-globalisation, trade wars, a demographic “time bomb” and the need for China to move into higher-value, innovative and knowledge-based sectors. The new coronavirus health crisis has brought China’s economy and its future into even starker focus.

Quote
So, what might some of the economic impacts be as a result of the coronavirus? Indigenous and overseas businesses will be hit by shutdowns, by millions of workers stranded by travel bans and by conflicting advice to businesses about resuming operations.

This has highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains. They are, for instance, integral to producing and sending automotive components to assemblers around the world and even medicines, as the pharmaceutical industry relies on China for many active ingredients. Meanwhile, it is unclear when iPhone production at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory will resume.

Furthermore, there will be negative impacts on the export of consumer and capital goods, lower commodity prices and consumer spending. Some service sectors, such as retail, hospitality and education, will be hard hit and it may also decimate others, such as both internal and external tourism and leisure, at least in the short term.

Additionally, there has been a plunge in the number of Chinese going abroad, a crucial source of income for the international tourism sector, luxury brands and parts of the education sector.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3581 on: February 18, 2020, 08:51:46 PM »
More about the impacts of Covid-19 on the Chinese economy (and the global economy as a consequence).

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3050629/forget-sars-new-coronavirus-threatens-meltdown-chinas-economy

Quote
Forget Sars, the new coronavirus threatens a meltdown in China’s economy

    Sars’ fatality rate may be higher than Covid-19’s, but economically speaking the new coronavirus is far more deadly
    This time around, a worst-case scenario of financial collapse, foreign exodus and large-scale bankruptcy cannot be ruled out
Cary Huang
Published 16 Feb 2020

Given the rapid advance of medical science and globalisation of recent decades, the scale, spread and economic costs of human epidemics are rocketing up, even if fatality rates are starting to fall.

Never before has China paid such an economic price for an epidemic as it has done already with the coronavirus, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan and causes the disease now officially known as Covid-19. And the damage is spreading.

It is too soon to assess the full impact of the virus as the data changes day after day and not even the brightest expert can say with any certainty when the outbreak might end. Nevertheless, that has not stopped economists from attempting to forecast the likely economic cost based on precedents such as the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or Sars.

Quote
Of course, the economic losses from Covid-19 will depend somewhat on how long the outbreak lasts and on what policy support the Chinese government comes up with to offset the impact. But even at this stage, it is obvious that the economic impact of Covid-19 will be far more severe than that of Sars, or any other previous epidemic, for a number of reasons.

Quote
Sixthly, for the millions of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China, the nightmare may be just beginning. Many small manufacturers fear foreign customers will shift orders to other countries due to disruptions in production and delivery. In a survey of 995 SMEs by academics from Tsinghua and Peking universities, 85 per cent said they would be unable to survive for more than three months under the current conditions. If the disruption goes on long enough, it could trigger a wave of bankruptcy among SMEs, which contribute more than 60 per cent of China’s GDP, 70 per cent of its patents and account for 80 per cent of jobs nationwide.

Quote
Finally, the epidemic will weigh on banks in the form of non-performing loans, adding risk to the banking system and pressure to the country’s towering debt pile, which stood at more than 300 per cent of annual GDP at the end of last year. Given the accumulated costs of decades of state-driven lending, an ever-inflating property bubble, and vast industrial overcapacity, the risk of default on the country’s 99.1 trillion yuan of outstanding onshore bonds is increasing. Corporate bond defaults already hit a record high last year amid an economic slowdown. The lower revenue and land sales income for local governments will in turn hit local government financing vehicles. The disruption will weigh on the capacity of some companies and individuals to repay loans, pushing up delinquency rates. Financially weak SMEs could face additional funding pressure as they are exposed to refinancing risk.

Unfortunately, as its scale is bigger and spread is faster, this epidemic is likely to go on far longer than Sars did. Recovery will be slow as quarantine measures and consumer caution will continue long after the disease has hit its peak. This will cause a social and political fallout that will hit not just the economy but also the whole society.

Thus, the worst-case scenario cannot be ruled out. Massive financial collapse, an exodus of foreign companies and large-scale bankruptcies all loom on the horizon if this epidemic cannot be contained soon. In short, nothing less than a major economic meltdown.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3582 on: February 18, 2020, 08:57:47 PM »
Meanwhile, estimates of the demand destruction in global oil markets keep increasing.  They're up to 4 million barrels per day in China alone currently.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tanker-Traffic-Jam-Points-At-Chaos-In-Asian-Oil-Markets.html

Quote
Tanker Traffic Jam Points At Chaos In Asian Oil Markets

Covid-19's effect on global energy markets has been disastrous. OPEC slashed its oil demand forecast last week, and Goldman Sachs doubled down on its bearish oil take and has cut its oil price target by $10 to $53 for the year, as a result of a "demand shock" that is set to collapse Chinese oil consumption by 20%, or as much as 4 million barrels per day.

Quote
Much of the oil consumption decline is because, as we reported on Friday, China's economy is faltering as its industrial hubs remain shuttered.

Take a look at the chart below, in the Feb 7-13 week, steel apparent demand is down a whopping 40%, but that's only because flat steel is down "only" 12% Y/Y as some car plants have ordered their employee to return to work.

Quote
A significant bottleneck for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) deliveries to China is developing, forcing some ports to reject new tanker loads, contributing to a parking lot of tankers sitting off the coast and in other regions in Asia.



Quote
And to summarize what we know so far: China's economy is collapsing, crude consumption is plunging, which has forced refiners to cut runs as a glut is developing, has now led to tanker parking lots moored off the shores of many countries in Asia.

Quote
The world is bracing for a huge virus shock from China, not seen in over a decade – this could easily tilt the world into recession.

Iain

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3583 on: February 18, 2020, 10:54:57 PM »
"UK Government backs 'greener' Cheshire and Aberdeenshire hydrogen plants"

It's stripping and CCS, most H2 will go to specific big energy users, some into the grid.

NB: Appx 3x as much energy is distributed via the gas grid as electricity, so H2 down the gas mains is important. Otherwise every road would have to be dug up to install thicker cables.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-51546611
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3584 on: February 19, 2020, 12:16:11 AM »
"UK Government backs 'greener' Cheshire and Aberdeenshire hydrogen plants"

It's stripping and CCS, most H2 will go to specific big energy users, some into the grid.

NB: Appx 3x as much energy is distributed via the gas grid as electricity, so H2 down the gas mains is important. Otherwise every road would have to be dug up to install thicker cables.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-51546611

From the article:
Quote
In the North West, operator Cadent Gas will distribute hydrogen through a pipeline network.

Reminder:  Hydrogen makes metal brittle.  And if ignited, it burns with a colorless, odorless, and thus difficult-to-detect flame.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3585 on: February 19, 2020, 12:37:55 AM »
^^^
What could possibly go wrong?


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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3586 on: February 19, 2020, 08:09:02 AM »
LoL I bet myself a Bacon roll for breakfast someone would refer to the Hindenburg.

Delicious.

I'm aware of Hydrogen embrittlement, but in the context of monatomic H evolved on the surface from Cathodic Protection systems. My understanding is that diatomic H2 is benign.

Embrittlement is a serious problem on a steel structure subject to cyclic loads as fatigue is an issue. Pipes, once installed, are static.

In the UK prior to the late 1970s when N. Sea gas came on stream, town gas was made by roasting coal, the gas was H2 and CO, so most of the pipework has already seen H2. Most of the rest is plastic.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3587 on: February 19, 2020, 08:12:47 AM »
Result of a methane explosion:

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3588 on: February 19, 2020, 02:31:10 PM »
Quote
Alexandre J. Tourville (@ajtourville) 1/24/20, 4:59 PM
Hydrogen is an invisible, odorless, tasteless, highly flammable & explosive gas that readily leaks from the tiniest hole, gap, or crack

No worries tho, hydrogen embrittles most metals making them highly susceptible to microfractures and it burns with a nearly invisible flame
https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1220828475218714631
15 sec video of burning hydrogen at the link - looks like simply heat-rippled air.  Starts a broom on fire!

Hydrogen Fuel Station Explodes In Norway, Toyota And Hyundai Halt FCV Sales | Carscoops
https://www.carscoops.com/2019/06/hydrogen-fuel-station-explodes-in-norway-toyota-and-hyundai-halt-fcv-sales/
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3589 on: February 19, 2020, 11:07:24 PM »
The decrease in drilling in the US is finally having an impact on production.  US natural gas production is expected to drop in March.

https://www.kallanishenergy.com/2020/02/19/month-to-month-us-gas-production-projected-to-drop/

Quote
Natural gas production in the seven most prolific basins/plays in the Lower 48 U.S. states is projected to drop between February and March, the Energy Information Administration’s February Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) reveals.

The DPR forecasts natural gas production will dip 172 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d), or 0.2%, to 85.45 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in March, from 85.62 Bcf/d in February, Kallanish Energy reports. (All numbers are rounded.)

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3590 on: February 20, 2020, 05:13:21 PM »
Why Cramer Is Wrong About Oil Stocks
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Cramer-Is-Wrong-About-Oil-Stocks.html
Quote
Like everyone else, we do not have any timelines when that might happen. However, It’s blindingly obvious that supply/demand imbalances are mostly to blame and the divestments that Cramer is talking about here are likely to persist until oil and gas companies scale down production appropriately, i.e., the big shakeout.
That said, oil demand could be sluggish at the moment but is bound to keep growing in the foreseeable future as the global economy bounces back.
The clean energy industry is growing at an admirable clip, but not quite fast enough to meet the world’s energy demand, which is growing even faster.
The belief that the fossil fuel industry is about to disappear forever can spook investors more than any old hat bearish argument ever could. However, it’s a big stretch to say that oil has already entered a terminal decline phase akin to the tobacco industry as Cramer has purported.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3591 on: February 20, 2020, 05:41:14 PM »
10 US oil refineries exceeding limits for cancer-causing benzene, report finds
Quote
At least 10 US oil refineries have been emitting cancer-causing benzene above the federal government’s limits, according to a new report from the Environmental Integrity Project. The group reviewed a year of air monitoring data recorded at the fence lines of 114 refineries, as reported to the Environmental Protection Agency.

The facilities are not breaking the law, but they are required by EPA to analyze the causes of the emissions and try to reduce them.

Eric Schaeffer, the executive director of the Environmental Integrity Project, said while some refineries have made improvements, others are still releasing benzene at harmful rates.

“Benzene comes with elevated cancer risk but also lots of non-cancer issues that are harder to quantify,” Schaeffer said. People can get sick from low levels in the long term or high levels in the short term.

Benzene is just one of multiple dangerous pollutants emitted by refineries – which turn oil into gasoline and other products. Studies have shown the populations living around refineries – often people of color and low-income families – to have worse asthma and other respiratory problems. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/06/us-oil-refineries-exceeding-limits-for-cancer-causing-benzene-report-finds
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3592 on: February 20, 2020, 07:09:20 PM »
In U.S. Supreme Court pipeline fight, Forest Service says Appalachian Trail isn't "land"
Quote
It’s not every Supreme Court brief that goes off the beaten legal path, supplementing jurisprudence with humor and spicing up statutory interpretation with devastating wit. But the filing from environmentalists fighting the US Forest Service (USFS) over its grant of a license for a gas pipeline through the Appalachian Trail is one such gem.

Sadly, the substance of the case isn’t amusing. Whether you believe national and natural treasures should be protected from pesky energy companies, or that nature-loving tree-huggers should thank the heavens for businesses willing to drill deep and spend billions of dollars to someday deliver consumer savings, the case highlights the growing tension between government, industry, and the people over how to handle American land. ...
https://qz.com/1805172/in-scotus-pipeline-fight-forest-service-says-appalachian-trail-isnt-land/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3593 on: February 24, 2020, 04:02:31 AM »
Alberta, Canada

Bill McKibben on Twitter: "Wait! News breaking that campaigners have seemingly won a signal victory against a giant proposed tarsands mine. The company says that 'investors' worried about climate make it impossible to proceed. What great organizing! #RejectTeck #stopthemoneypipeline”
https://mobile.twitter.com/billmckibben/status/1231769361360334849

Teck Resources Ltd. is pulling its application for the proposed Frontier oil sands mine.
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The company, which on Friday released disappointing fourth quarter results, decided to pull the project following a board meeting, according to two sources with knowledge of the decision. The Globe and Mail is not identifying the sources as they were not permitted to speak publicly about the decision.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-teck-resources-pulls-application-for-frontier-oil-sands-mine/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3594 on: February 24, 2020, 04:04:37 AM »
U.S.

”A moratorium would hold off development of the plastics manufacturing hub in Appalachia and stall plant expansions in the nation's primary petrochemical production area along the Gulf Coast, while scientists studied the impacts in both regions.”

Congressional Democrats Join the Debate Over Plastics’ Booming Future
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The bill would:
• Require producers of packaging and containers to design, manage and finance programs to collect and process product waste. Normally, the collection and recycling of plastic waste fall on state and local governments.
• Establish a 10-cent national refund program for all beverage containers, regardless of material. The industry has aggressively fought these so-called "bottle bills," and only 10 states have deposit-refund systems for beverage containers.
• Phase out some of the most common, single-use plastic products, such as lightweight plastic carryout bags, polystyrene plates or cups, plastic stirrers and plastic utensils.
• Establish minimum recycled content requirements for allowed beverage containers, packaging and food-service products, to help create a market for recycling.

Recycling has now become largely uneconomical, thanks to China's rejection of plastic waste from the United States and a glut of cheap natural gas that makes it more cost effective to make new plastic products, as opposed to recycling old ones. As a result, communities across the United States have been paring back expensive recycling programs. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19022020/petrochemical-plant-shell-plastics-ohio-river
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3595 on: February 24, 2020, 05:36:40 PM »
Dr Sarah Taber on Twitter:
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The agitprop surrounding the Wet'suwet'en rail blockage is out of control. There are really folks taking pics of these grocery store shelves & trying to spin them as "bare."
[twitpics of pretty full shelves...]
backstory: 1) Canada decided to build a pipeline across Wet'suwet'en land in British Columbia, which Canada doesn't have authority to do.
2) In solidarity, First Nations groups in Ontario (led by Mohawk nation I believe) blocked a rail line between Montreal & Toronto.
3) Canada's gov't & white nationalists don't see "follow treaty law & reroute the pipeline" as an option so instead they're squealing about how Native people are evil mean terrorists who are going to starve us all. Seems they have to call full shelves "empty" to make this claim.
Claims that "this blockade is starving Canada" are being used to justify why Canada "has" to remove the First Nations rail block [subtext: by violent force if necessary]. It's the making of excuses ahead of time. That's what we're witnessing.

...
https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahtaber_bww/status/1231611884870258690

Thread continues at the link....
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3596 on: February 24, 2020, 08:45:19 PM »
The Dow average is currently down about $900, after dipping below -$1,000 earlier.

Oil falls more than 5% at low, sliding into bear market territory as coronavirus sparks demand fears
Mon, Feb 24 2020
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Oil slid more than 5% at its session low on Monday, falling into bear market territory as the number of coronavirus cases outside of China surged, worrying investors that a subsequent slowdown in the global economy could dent the demand for crude.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 4.8%, or $2.53, to $50.85 per barrel, while International benchmark Brent crude fell $2.89, or 4.9%, to trade at $55.62 per barrel.

Again Capital's John Kilduff said that the $50 level is the "line in the sand" for energy companies. "This is it, this is the line in the sand. This is where they really start to hurt. This is where they start to not be able to service their debt, this is where the expense ratio does not work for Wall Street, for private equity, for anybody," he said Monday on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange."
...
"The oil market is confronting new signs of weakness, largely from the coronavirus and its impacts on refinery demand for crude oil and from Russia's refusal to agree to an emergency OPEC+ meeting to curb oil production," the firm said in a note to clients.

Citi said that it now believes inventories could grow to 2 million barrels per day in February alone, which will put "even more sustained pressure on prices." A week ago, the firm's forecast stood at a potential build of over one million barrels per day for the quarter.

The firm also raised its first quarter build projection from 112 million barrels to 145 million barrels, and lifted its second quarter forecast from 53 million barrels to 94 million barrels. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/oil-falls-more-than-4percent-sliding-into-bear-market-territory-as-coronavirus-sparks-demand-fears.html
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3597 on: February 26, 2020, 11:17:26 PM »
The US Shale patch slowdown is underway.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Shale-Decline-Inevitable-As-Oil-Prices-Crash.html

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Shale Decline Inevitable As Oil Prices Crash
By Nick Cunningham - Feb 25, 2020

The U.S. shale industry continues to show signs of slowing down, with production declining in major shale basins outside of the Permian.

Financing stress has plagued the shale sector for quite some time, but investors continue to bail on oil and gas stocks. The FT points out that the energy sector is now underperforming the S&P 500 “by the biggest margin since the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941.” In other words, it has been nearly 80 years since U.S. oil and gas stocks have performed so badly relative to the rest of the market.

The pressure is starting to have an impact on drilling and production. The latest EIA Drilling Productivity Report shows that production in all major shale basins outside of the Permian have started to decline, and even the Permian’s expected growth for March is a fraction of the growth rates seen during the heady days of 2018.

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Morgan Stanley pointed out that some of the largest shale drillers hiked dividends, which the investment bank took as a sign that oil production would slow. Hoping to staunch the bleeding as investors flee the energy sector, large E&Ps like Devon Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources increased their dividends. “We view the shift toward higher dividends and return of cash as constructive not only for the sector…but also for the macro as it should limit upside to US production growth should oil prices rise,” the investment bank wrote.

Meanwhile, some of the worst pain is being felt by gas drillers. U.S. natural gas prices are below $2/MMBtu, where few gas companies can turn a profit. “I have a hard time rationalizing why industry is growing into the market today,” Cabot Oil & Gas Chairman and CEO Dan Dinges told analysts on the company's fourth-quarter 2019 earnings call Friday. “I do think ... rationalization is going to have to prevail in this market that's not sustainable, and the balance sheets are not sustainable out there.” Cabot plans on idling one of its rigs in March and says that production will decline by 3 percent in the first quarter, relative to the fourth quarter.

The EIA expects Appalachian shale gas production to continue to decline, falling by 200 million cubic feet per day in March

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3598 on: February 28, 2020, 09:56:37 PM »
WTI  crude down $2 to $45 a barrel.
Nymex Natural gas down 6 cents to $1.69 million BTU.

Gold down $60 to below $1,600 an ounce. They say traders needing cash to cover margin calls outweighing safe haven demand.

Novel Corona virus killing the markets. If sustained "there will be (more) blood". How much?
Trump's Nemesis knocking on the door od the White House?

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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3599 on: February 29, 2020, 06:12:49 PM »
Study: Methane Emissions from Fossil Fuels Vastly Underestimated

Natural gas as a bridge to nowhere, another study showing that much more methane escapes from fracked gas wells (and other parts of the fossil fuels industry) than assumed in the GHG emission accounting. NG is as bad or even worse (especially in the first couple of decades) than coal.

This study shows that of the methane in the atmosphere, much more than assumed comes from NG wells rather than from natural geologcial seeps. The scientist interviewed says that estimates of NG emissions from the fossil fuel industry should be increased by 45%!

https://therealnews.com/stories/methane-emissions-fossil-fuels-vastly-underestimated