Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Oil and Gas Issues  (Read 642655 times)

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4137
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2414
  • Likes Given: 321
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3800 on: May 05, 2020, 05:29:15 AM »
Saudi Arabia's Oil Tanker Flotilla Is Reaching The U.S., Despite Some Objections
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/04/850026351/saudi-arabias-oil-tanker-flotilla-is-reaching-the-u-s-despite-some-objections

A flotilla of Saudi tankers loaded with crude oil has begun arriving on the U.S. Gulf Coast, worrying American shale producers who face uncertainty because of an oversupply of oil

At least 18 very large crude carriers, each carrying 2 million barrels of oil, are headed to the U.S., according to Michelle Wiese Bockmann, markets editor and oil analyst for Lloyd's List, a shipping news service in London.

The first tanker, the Dalian, arrived last Friday and is floating off the coast of Houston and has yet to discharge any of its cargo, according to Lloyd's shipping tracking. The last one is due to arrive at the end of May.

All the ships were loaded in eastern Saudi Arabia in late March and early April, Wiese Bockmann says.

The surge in Saudi oil shipments comes amid an oil glut and an estimated 30% drop in global demand because of the coronavirus pandemic. It also adds to tanker congestion at U.S. ports, as fuel storage runs short. American oil producers and senators are pressuring the Trump administration to block the shipments.

Analysts believe much of the Saudi oil headed to the Gulf Coast has been purchased by U.S. refiners at deeply discounted prices, and some of it was sent on spec. The Saudis chartered some of the tankers, including one for a whopping $350,000 per day, Bockmann says.

"They were so keen to get this armada of oil over to the U.S. Gulf, they paid this crazy money," she says.


The current position of DALIAN is at Gulf of Mexico (coordinates 28.6634 N / 94.24411 W) reported 1 min ago by AIS.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1186
  • Likes Given: 1031
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3801 on: May 05, 2020, 10:54:12 AM »
Big Oil Fears Keystone XL Ruling Means End of Easy Pipeline Permits

On April 15, Judge Brian Morris nullified water-crossing permits in Montana that were granted for the Keystone XL, a major setback for the long-embattled tar sands oil pipeline. The ruling came just days after Keystone XL owner TC Energy, formerly known as TransCanada, obtained billions of dollars in subsidies from the Alberta government as global oil prices plummeted.

The oil and gas industry has taken notice. Seemingly just a ruling on Keystone XL — the subject of opposition by the climate movement for the past decade — the ruling could have far broader implications for the future of building water-crossing pipelines and utility lines.

In his decision, Judge Morris cited a potential violation of the Endangered Species Act when he ordered the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to do a deeper analysis of potential impacts to protected species. Morris required the Corps to demonstrate whether or not it could construct the pipeline without harming endangered species, such as the Pallid Sturgeon or the American burying beetle. Instead, the Army Corps “failed to consider relevant expert analysis and failed to articulate a rational connection between the facts it found and the choice it made,” Morris ruled, when the Corps gave Keystone XL the initial green light.

The original July 2019 complaint in that case — filed by Northern Plains Resource Council, Bold Alliance, Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, and Center for Biological Diversity — also argued that the Army Corps had violated the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in using an obscure regulatory lever to fast-track the review process.

Known as Nationwide Permit 12, the permit only requires a short environmental analysis compared to the more robust environmental impact statement required under NEPA for other major infrastructure projects. But Morris also wrote that the decision applied not just to Keystone XL, but to all major federal projects aiming to utilize Nationwide Permit 12, calling for it to be “vacated pending completion of the consultation process and compliance with all environmental statutes and regulations.”

...

Nationwide Permit 12 historically was used for small “single and complete” projects crossing water parcels half an acre in size or smaller.

But in the aftermath of protests and civil disobedience actions taken against Keystone XL, the Obama administration began using that permitting process to split pipelines into hundreds or thousands of half-acre pieces. The process was a way around the more robust and democratic National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) regulatory process, which involves both a public commenting and public hearing phase. Nationwide Permit 12 was also used to push through the Dakota Access pipeline, as well as the southern leg of the Keystone XL, both greenlighted by President Barack Obama.

....

https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/05/03/keystone-xl-future-pipeline-permits
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3660
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 625
  • Likes Given: 317
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3802 on: May 05, 2020, 12:11:03 PM »
Naturally we do not want to burn oil, thus exacerbating AGW. But could we continue to use oil for chemical synthesis instead?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1186
  • Likes Given: 1031
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3803 on: May 05, 2020, 01:59:44 PM »
Big Oil is pushing Big Plastics since they like to have an extra market. This should be opposed seeing how much pollution issues there are with that.

There are probably some rather specialized products made with oil and you can keep doing that if they are needed but that is different from trying to use as much oil as you can which we cannot afford due to the planets CO2 budget.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

bluice

  • Guest
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3804 on: May 05, 2020, 03:38:42 PM »
Remember where all that plastic will end up. It's either in the ocean or in the atmosphere.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3805 on: May 05, 2020, 06:00:36 PM »
Naturally we do not want to burn oil, thus exacerbating AGW. But could we continue to use oil for chemical synthesis instead?


We need to eliminate the use of materials synthesized from oil as much as possible. This includes most plastics but synthetic fibers as well.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3806 on: May 05, 2020, 06:56:50 PM »
Naturally we do not want to burn oil, thus exacerbating AGW. But could we continue to use oil for chemical synthesis instead?


We need to eliminate the use of materials synthesized from oil as much as possible. This includes most plastics but synthetic fibers as well.

And renewable natural gas (from sewage treatment plants, landfills, food waste, etc...) can be used for the chemical feedstocks that are essential.  So no, we don't need fossil fuels.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3807 on: May 05, 2020, 11:58:32 PM »
With demand for natural gas down by 30%, investments in planned LNG projects are being cancelled.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cheniere-lng/cheniere-slashes-outlook-for-lng-investment-amid-pandemic-idUSKBN22C2D6

Quote
April 30, 2020
Cheniere slashes outlook for LNG investment amid pandemic
Scott DiSavino, Arathy S Nair

(Reuters) - Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG.A), the largest U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) company, said it expects investment in new projects worldwide to slump this year and next as the industry grapples with the coronavirus-led economic slump that has sliced 30% off worldwide fuel demand.

Quote
The global recession is expected to cause investment to fall, cutting the expected growth in new projects worldwide in 2020 and 2021 to 65 million tonnes of LNG capacity, compared with its previous forecast of about 130 million tonnes.

Quote
Cheniere said more customers told them they would not take delivery of LNG cargoes recently, but did not give a specific number. It does not expect the cancellations to have a material impact on its forecasted financial results for 2020, as most of its business is through long-term contracts.

During the first quarter, the company said it recognized revenue of approximately $53 million associated with canceled LNG cargoes.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3808 on: May 06, 2020, 12:07:57 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/idling-an-oil-well-is-latest-dilemma-for-beleaguered-producers

Quote
In Historic Oil Shutdown, Hard Part Is Picking Which Well Closes
By David Wethe
May 4, 2020

Turns out shutting an oil well is easy, in many cases it can be done with a few taps on an iPhone. Figuring out which to shut, and for how long, is the hard part.

In the wake of a killer pandemic and the worst crude crash in history, the U.S. has become ground zero for a vast new experiment in the industry. Producers are shutting wells at a tremendous rate with oil prices sitting at historic lows. On Friday, Exxon Mobil Corp. said it will cut the number of its rigs in the Permian Basin by 75%, running just 15 by year’s end. Chevron Corp. said it’s now down to just five rigs there, a 71% drop.

Quote
Curtailing the output from wells is relatively straightforward. The system of choice today for new wells in the shale patch involves the use of electric submersible pumps, or ESPs, that act as surveillance systems to organize and store data in a centralized location for monitoring and control. They send data from deep within the well to a remote telemetry unit on the surface that transmits it online to production managers.

The goal of these devices is to prevent operating problems from afar before they lead to costly failures. At the same time, these systems allow managers to easily shut down a well as needed.

Quote
Generally, non-automated wells can be shut pretty easily as well, something that happens regularly for maintenance. To repair a well requires a service rig and crew to come out at about $500 an hour. In some cases, if wells are shut down for a long time, or permanently, companies will want to pull out expensive equipment to make sure it remains viable. That’s an effort that can cost $75,000 or more.

But there are concerns over the potential fallout from long-term shutdowns. Some operators outside the nation’s shale fields worry that as the flow in a well recedes, the porous nature of rocks in their fields could allow oil to migrate away from the well itself.

For many companies, a key data point in deciding which wells to shut is the operating cost per barrel. Oil has traded in New York for less than $20 a barrel since April 16, closing at $19.78 on Friday. A study by BloombergNEF analysts shows that 45% of the production they surveyed is unprofitable at $30 a barrel while conventional, non-fracked wells and high-cost producers in the Bakken basin in Montana and North Dakota need crude to trade above $45 a barrel.

Quote
Operations in the Gulf of Mexico, meanwhile, will likely be the last to be shut. The challenge there is the miles of flow lines that carry the oil along the sea bed to processing facilities on shore. At such depths, the liquids in the lines could clog if shut off for too long. While Gulf platforms regularly shut off production for short periods as storms approach, it’s not feasible to keep them shut for long.

Quote
Canada’s oil-sands, the world’s third-largest crude reserve, present particular challenges. Thermal wells -- where steam is pumped into the ground to get the viscous oil to flow to the surface -- are risky to shut down because dialing back the injections can cause the reservoir to lock up, impairing how much oil can be recovered.


Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3809 on: May 08, 2020, 06:59:23 PM »
US oil production is falling much faster than expected.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Companies-Are-Cutting-Production-Much-Faster-Than-Expected.html

Quote
U.S. Oil Companies Are Cutting Production Much Faster Than Expected
By Julianne Geiger - May 07, 2020

The United States is on track to cut 1.7 million barrels of oil production per day, according to Reuters calculations of state and company data shared on Thursday.

Quote
U.S. Energy Secretary said last month that the DoE expected that production in the United States would fall by between two and three million bpd by the end of the year—it appears the cuts have come even quicker than the department expected.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3810 on: May 09, 2020, 12:52:49 AM »
The oil and gas rig count in the US is now at its lowest since 1940!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Gas-Rigs-Fall-Below-400-For-The-First-Time-Since-1940.html

Quote
U.S. Oil, Gas Rigs Fall Below 400 For The First Time Since 1940
By Julianne Geiger - May 08, 2020

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US fell again this week by 34, falling to 374, with the total oil and gas rigs sitting at 614 fewer than this time last year as U.S. drillers scurry to keep their heads above water amid strict stay-at-home orders that caused oil demand to plummet at alarming rates—and oil prices along with it.

It is the fewest number of active rigs since Baker Hughes started to keep in 1940.

Quote
The EIA’s estimate for the week is that oil production in the United States fell to 11.9 million barrels of oil per day on average for week ending May 1, which is 1.2 million bpd off the all-time high and a substantial 300,000 bpd lower than the week prior. It is the fifth straight weekly production decline. It is the first sub-12 million bpd rate in the United States since February 2019.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18182
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 827
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3811 on: May 11, 2020, 07:04:08 PM »
Oil consumption for transportation will not return to previous levels after the pandemic subsides:  Working from home is the new commute.
White-Collar Companies Race to Be Last to Return to the Office
Quote
Google and Facebook employees were told Thursday that they could stay home until next year. Capital One informed 40,000 workers that they will be out through Labor Day and possibly longer. Amazon is saying October. Nationwide Insurance is moving more aggressively than other firms, shuttering five offices around the country and having its 4,000 employees telecommute permanently.

Some companies said there is another reason: Working from home is working out well.
“Working from home is a great thing for the company and for the employees, who don’t want to get back in cars and commute for two hours. That’s lost productivity,” said Joan Burke, the chief people officer of DocuSign, a San Francisco tech company that enables electronic agreements. “I see it happening way more often in the future.”

Now, even as states like Georgia and Illinois roll out phased re-openings, companies see a future for remote work. Gartner, the research firm and consultant, said its clients — mostly large firms that have little direct interaction with the public — expected as many as half their employees to work at home at least part time.

A broad shift could have major implications for traffic congestion, office culture and corporate profits.

“There are real cost benefits to doing this, and companies are in a period where cost matters a lot,” said Brian Kropp, a Gartner vice president. “Even if employees who are working remotely are 5 percent less productive, companies can save 20 percent on real estate and end up with a higher return.”
https://dnyuz.com/2020/05/08/white-collar-companies-race-to-be-last-to-return-to-the-office/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3812 on: May 12, 2020, 08:02:01 PM »
BP is saying that changes caused by the Covid crisis has caused oil demand to peak.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/BP-Boss-We-May-Have-Already-Hit-Peak-Oil-Demand.html

Quote
BP Boss: We May Have Already Hit Peak Oil Demand
By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 12, 2020

One of the biggest oil companies in the world, BP, is not ruling out that the oil demand crash amid COVID-19 and perhaps the subsequent lasting change in people's lifestyle may have already brought about peak oil demand.

The pandemic adds not only a layer of uncertainty in the oil industry in the short term, but it also creates another challenge for the coming years, BP's chief executive Bernard Looney told the Financial Times in an interview published on Tuesday.

"It's not going to make oil more in demand. It's gotten more likely [oil will] be less in demand," Looney told FT.

BP's top executive joins other CEOs of major oil corporations who have recently expressed views that it's not guaranteed that global oil demand will return to its 'normal' pre-virus levels of around 100 million barrels per day (bpd).


vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4137
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2414
  • Likes Given: 321
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3813 on: May 15, 2020, 04:36:27 PM »
Hundreds Get Virus at Main Kazakh Oil Field
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/slovenia-calls-coronavirus-epidemic-live-updates-200514234435155.html

More than 400 people have tested positive for the coronavirus at Kazakhstan's top-producing oil field, health officials have said.

The number of infections at the giant Tengiz oil field rose from 17 on Thursday to 401 by Friday, according to officials in the Atyrau region

They said the workers were being treated and their contacts traced. However, Health Minister Yelzhan Birtanov on Thursday criticised quarantine measures at the field
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3814 on: May 15, 2020, 08:13:53 PM »
Current US production continues to drop.  And the number of active rigs, an indicator of future productions, continues to set record lows.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rig-Count-Drops-To-New-Low-As-Oil-Prices-Soar.html

Quote
Rig Count Drops To New Low As Oil Prices Soar
By Julianne Geiger - May 15, 2020

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US fell again this week by 35, falling to 339, with the total oil and gas rigs sitting at 648 fewer

than this time last year—a more than 65% drop off in a single year.

It is the fewest number of active rigs since Baker Hughes started to keep track in 1940.

Quote
The EIA’s estimate for the week is that oil production in the United States fell to 11.6 million barrels of oil per day on average for week ending May 8, which is 1.5 million bpd off the all-time high and 300,000 bpd lower than the week prior. It is the sixth straight weekly production decline.

ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 192
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3815 on: May 15, 2020, 08:41:20 PM »
Everyone writes about a large reduction in the production and consumption of hydrocarbons in the world. World oil prices at record low positions.

But why is there no significant drop in atmospheric CO2 in April at Mauna Kea?

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
April 2020:       416.21 ppm
April 2019:       413.33 ppm

The growth is almost exactly 3 ppm, which is a record:



I note that the peaks in 1998, 2015-2016 are explained by the strong El Nino, which is now absent.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3816 on: May 15, 2020, 08:52:59 PM »
^^^
Do you understand the difference between emissions and concentrations?

The level of emissions has decreased.  However, if the level of emissions is higher than the amount of sinks, the concentrations will still increase.

Decreasing emissions due to the Covid crisis are a silver lining in the awful cloud we're currently in.  However, they alone aren't enough to address the climate crisis.  We need to drastically reduce the amount of greenhouse gases we emit.  The Paris Accord goals were for 50% reduction by 2030 and 100% by 2050 to have a better than even chance of avoiding a temperature increase of 1.5C.  The reductions in emissions we've seen during the Covid crisis are closer to 8%.

The faster we get off of fossil fuels, the sooner emissions, and ultimately, concentrations of greenhouse gases will decline.


ArcticMelt2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 192
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3817 on: May 15, 2020, 09:00:05 PM »
The level of emissions has decreased.  However, if the level of emissions is higher than the amount of sinks, the concentrations will still increase.

Where is the evidence of this? Why is the rate of increase in carbon dioxide emissions not decreasing?

At the same time, aerosol emissions did decline worldwide according to satellites. For example, in China:



Maybe they just lie to us that reduce carbon dioxide emissions?, but in fact they just improve fuel cleaning to reduce the amount of aerosols.

I fear that the epidemic will only accelerate the climate catastrophe. Emissions of cooling aerosols will be reduced, but no carbon dioxide.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3818 on: May 15, 2020, 09:12:44 PM »
They can calculate emission reductions based on the amount of fossil fuels consumed.  Here is what the International Energy Agency (IEA) is stating:

https://www.iea.org/news/global-energy-demand-to-plunge-this-year-as-a-result-of-the-biggest-shock-since-the-second-world-war

Quote
Global energy demand to plunge this year as a result of the biggest shock since the Second World War
30 April 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic represents the biggest shock to the global energy system in more than seven decades, with the drop in demand this year set to dwarf the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and result in a record annual decline in carbon emissions of almost 8%.

A new report released today by the International Energy Agency provides an almost real-time view of the Covid-19 pandemic’s extraordinary impact across all major fuels. Based on an analysis of more than 100 days of real data so far this year, the IEA’s Global Energy Review includes estimates for how energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions trends are likely to evolve over the rest of 2020.

Quote
The report projects that energy demand will fall 6% in 2020 – seven times the decline after the 2008 global financial crisis. In absolute terms, the decline is unprecedented – the equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India, the world’s third largest energy consumer. Advanced economies are expected to see the biggest declines, with demand set to fall by 9% in the United States and by 11% in the European Union. The impact of the crisis on energy demand is heavily dependent on the duration and stringency of measures to curb the spread of the virus. For instance, the IEA found that each month of worldwide lockdown at the levels seen in early April reduces annual global energy demand by about 1.5%.

Quote
Coal is particularly hard hit, with global demand projected to fall by 8% in 2020, the largest decline since the Second World War. Following its 2018 peak, coal-fired power generation is set to fall by more than 10% this year.

After 10 years of uninterrupted growth, natural gas demand is on track to decline 5% in 2020. This would be the largest recorded year-on-year drop in consumption since natural gas demand developed at scale during the second half of the 20th century. The massive impact of the crisis on oil demand has already been covered in detail in our April Oil Market Report.

Renewables are set to be the only energy source that will grow in 2020, with their share of global electricity generation projected to jump thanks to their priority access to grids and low operating costs. Despite supply chain disruptions that have paused or delayed deployment in several key regions this year, solar PV and wind are on track to help lift renewable electricity generation by 5% in 2020, aided by higher output from hydropower.


Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3819 on: May 15, 2020, 09:28:31 PM »
Fracked oil wells decline at a rapid rate, often producing less than 25% of their initial production rates after a few months.  Producers need to constantly drill and complete new wells to offset the production declines in operating wells.

US fracking completions have dropped off the cliff and many producers have declared fracking holidays for the second quarter of the year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Fracking-Activity-To-Hit-Rock-Bottom-In-May.html

Quote
U.S. Fracking Activity To Hit Rock Bottom In May
The Covid-19 pandemic and the low oil-price environment it has created continues to affect global energy markets and activity levels by oil and gas producers. New fracking jobs in the US are not immune to the trend and Rystad Energy expects May to be the month that such activity will hit rock bottom before a recovery begins in the third quarter of 2020.

We estimate that the total number of started frac operations in the country’s Lower 48 states will end up at around 300 to 330 wells in May 2020, down from April’s 337 wells.





Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 820
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 136
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3820 on: May 16, 2020, 07:10:14 AM »
Everyone writes about a large reduction in the production and consumption of hydrocarbons in the world. World oil prices at record low positions.

But why is there no significant drop in atmospheric CO2 in April at Mauna Kea?

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
April 2020:       416.21 ppm
April 2019:       413.33 ppm

The growth is almost exactly 3 ppm, which is a record:



I note that the peaks in 1998, 2015-2016 are explained by the strong El Nino, which is now absent.

It might have dropped the yearly increase by roughly 0.05% so far (i.e. it might have been 3.05 instead of 3.0)  Its too small a signal to pick out of the noise as yet.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 165
  • Likes Given: 55
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3821 on: May 16, 2020, 01:05:06 PM »
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/covid2.html
Quote
Can we see a change in the CO2 record because of COVID-19?

Here is an example: If emissions are lower by 25%, then we would expect the monthly mean CO2 for March at Mauna Loa to be lowered by about 0.2 ppm, and again in April, etc. Thus, when we compare the average seasonal cycle of many years we would expect a difference to accumulate after a number of months, each missing 0.2 ppm. The International Energy Agency expects global CO2 emissions to drop by 8% this year. Clearly, we cannot see a global effect like that in less than a year. CO2 would continue to increase at almost the same rate, which illustrates that to tackle our global heating emergency aggressive investments need to be made in alternative energy sources.

Perhaps IOW:
Our emissions are only a small additional effect compared to the large and variable annual cycle in photosynthesis removing CO2 and other processes replacing it.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 165
  • Likes Given: 55
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3822 on: May 16, 2020, 02:29:05 PM »
I do wonder about IEA projections. Do they tend to see what the oil industry wants them to see?

7 April 2020 short term outlook had figures for 2018 to 2021 as follows

Total world consumption 99.97 100.75 95.52 101.93
Total world production 100.83 100.57 99.39 100.20

So this showed only a 1% reduction in production in 2020 and bouncing back to nearly normal level in 2021 despite a 5% drop in consumption.

These have declined with the May 12 2020 release which has

Total World Consumption 99.97 100.74 92.59 99.53
Total World Production   100.81 100.58 95.19 97.73

5% fall in production in 2020 and 3% (from peak) in 2021 seems a bit more realistic but I do wonder if these projections are going to get steadily worse with each release?

If they are a good projection they should show a random walk with as many ups as downs. If they are saying what the oil industry wants to hear then many more downs than ups might be expected.

Might be interesting to watch what happens.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3823 on: May 19, 2020, 12:31:44 AM »
Adjustments to the latest US oil production data show that the EIA has been over-estimating US production by around 1 million barrels per day.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Cuts-Production-Deeper-And-Faster-Than-Expected.html

Quote
U.S. Shale Cuts Production Deeper And Faster Than Expected
By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 18, 2020

Quote
The latest available weekly data from the EIA estimated production at 11.6 million bpd for the week ending on May 8. But the adjustment in the estimates, formerly known as Unaccounted-for Crude Oil, is at nearly -1 million bpd, the most negative adjustment factor for crude oil production ever. This, according to Bloomberg’s Lee, could mean that the EIA is either over-estimating U.S. production by 914,000 bpd for the week to May 8, or underestimating demand, or somewhere in between.

If the 914,000 bpd ‘unaccounted for’ crude oil is on the supply side, this suggests that U.S. crude oil production was not 11.6 million bpd in the week to May 8, but rather, a million bpd lower at around 10.6 million bpd.

Quote
Shut-ins across the U.S. and Canada combined are somewhere between 3.5 million and 4.5 million barrels a day, Jeremy Goebel, Executive Vice President, Commercial, at Plains All American Pipeline said on the company’s earnings call in early May.

Quote
“Actual production cuts are probably larger and occur not only as a result of shut-ins, but also due to a natural decline from existing wells when new wells and drilling decline,” the energy research firm said.

“According to different sources and company announcements, U.S. producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of ‘putting on production’ wells,’’ OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report last week.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3824 on: May 19, 2020, 12:39:18 AM »
Natural gas storage is becoming an issue.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Natural-Gas-Drillers-Face-Price-Meltdown-As-Storage-Fills-Fast.html

Quote
Natural Gas Drillers Face Price Meltdown As Storage Fills Fast
By Irina Slav - May 18, 2020

Natural gas, the poster child of the fossil fuel industry and the bridge fuel to a renewable future, has suffered its fair share of problems amid the coronavirus pandemic. And it may suffer the same fate as oil, at least when it comes to storage. It may also suffer the same fate with regards to negative prices.

Quote
In the United States, withdrawals this winter were the lowest since 2015/2016, with the total amount in storage 19 percent above the five-year seasonal average, the Energy Information Administration said in April. The agency forecast that gas in storage will remain at elevated levels throughout the summer period as well.

Meanwhile, in Europe, storage is also filling up fast. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that as traders look for places to stash their unsold gas, storage facilities across the continent may get topped by July, especially since they were already half full before refilling season began. For Europe, it was a combination of mild weather, a rising share of renewables in the power generation mix, and a crash in industrial demand for gas amid the pandemic that did natural gas in.

Quote
Rystad Energy earlier this year forecast that global liquefied natural gas supply this year could rise by 17 million tons to a total 380 million tons. Demand, on the other hand, was seen to increase by just 6 million tons to 359 million tons. And while under normal circumstances markets have been able to soak in excess gas, the circumstanced this year are anything but normal.

“In 2020, when ample LNG supply is coupled with demand destruction, prices have already hit record lows and storages have already filled faster than usual. Production shut-ins are becoming a realistic possibility,” Rystad Energy said earlier this month.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4137
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2414
  • Likes Given: 321
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3825 on: May 19, 2020, 10:41:51 AM »
Researcher Detects Unknown Submarine Landslides in Gulf of Mexico
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-unknown-submarine-landslides-gulf-mexico.html

A Florida State University researcher has used new detection methods to identify 85 previously unknown submarine landslides that occurred in the Gulf of Mexico between 2008 and 2015, leading to questions about the stability of oil rigs and other structures, such as pipelines built in the region.

"The observed landslides suggest a possible tsunami hazard for coastal communities along the Gulf of Mexico and that seabed infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, including oil platforms and pipelines, is also at risk from the landslides," Fan said.

Fan and his colleagues measured data from seismic stations across the United States. They found that out of the 85 landslides they identified, 10 occurred spontaneously without preceding earthquakes. The other 75 occurred almost instantly after the passage of surface waves caused by distant earthquakes. Some of these were considered rather small earthquakes, Fan added.

Wenyuan Fan et al, Abundant spontaneous and dynamically triggered submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico, Geophysical Research Letters (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087213
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3826 on: May 19, 2020, 07:34:32 PM »
US natural gas production is forecast to decline every month through November.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Gas-Output-To-Hit-Rock-Bottom-In-November.html

Quote
U.S. Gas Output To Hit Rock Bottom In November

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced oil and gas producers to slash budgets and reduce drilling activity, which in the US always affects future hydrocarbon output as existing fields naturally decline. Operators also shut some producing oil fields, halting in turn their associated gas output. Rystad Energy estimates that US gas production (Lower 48 States excl. Gulf of Mexico) will reach its lowest point in November, at 82.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) before a gradual slow recovery begins in 2021.

We expect that gas production will decline every single month until November in our base-case scenario. This assumes a gradual reactivation of producing fields and is based on what curtailments we realistically see happening, rather than taking a basin-wide analogical approach. To put the decline into context: Gas production has already dropped from about 94 Bcfd in November 2019 to 88.9 Bcfd in April 2020.

Quote
Meanwhile, May’s output is expected at 86 Bcfd. After the forecasted November low, the slow recovery that we anticipate is only expected to add around 1 Bcfd by mid-2021 and 1 Bcfd more by the end of that year.


Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18182
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 827
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3827 on: May 19, 2020, 09:43:02 PM »
New York Governor Rejects Controversial Gas Pipeline, Handing Climate Activists A Victory
The so-called Williams Pipeline would have carried super-heating fracked gas from Pennsylvania to parts of New York City.
Quote
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) rejected a permit to build a controversial pipeline that would lock the nation’s largest city into decades of dependence on fracked gas when scientists say the world needs to rapidly wean off fossil fuels.

The proposal for the Northeast Supply Enhancement Pipeline ― better known as the Williams Pipeline, after the Oklahoma company behind the project ― is to lay a new conduit under Lower New York Bay to carry gas from hydraulic fracturing sites in Pennsylvania to homes in Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island. Methane, the primary component in fracked gas, produces potent emissions that, at least in the short term, trap more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide.

Late Friday afternoon, the state Department of Environmental Conservation denied the company’s second application for a permit to extend the pipeline from New Jersey via Raritan Bay through the southern portion of New York Bay. In an 18-page letter, Daniel Whitehead, director of the agency’s Division of Environmental Permits, cited the “apparent lack of need for the Project, as well as its increased impacts to water quality as compared to identified alternatives” to reject the proposal with prejudice, meaning the company cannot reapply.

“That’s the end of the line,” said Suzanne Mattei, a former regional director at the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, who campaigned against the project. “A denial with prejudice means the department has determined the environmental impacts of the pipeline are unacceptable and that the company has not given it reason to believe that it can make changes to its proposal that would convert it into an acceptable proposal.” ...
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/cuomo-williams-pipeline_n_5ebdbe5dc5b6c9c1874157a6
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3828 on: May 22, 2020, 10:17:51 PM »
The oil price rally this week didn't stop the decrease in active US drilling rigs.  The rig count is down 67% from the same week last year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Collapse-Continues-Despite-Soaring-Oil-Prices.html

Quote
U.S. Rig Count Collapse Continues Despite Soaring Oil Prices
By Julianne Geiger - May 22, 2020

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US fell again this week by 21, falling to 318, with the total oil and gas rigs sitting at 665 fewer than this time last year—a more than 67% drop off in a single year.

The number of oil rigs decreased for the week by 21 rigs, according to Baker Hughes data, bringing the total to 237—a 560-rig loss year over year. It is the fewest number of active oil rigs in play since mid-2009.

Quote
The significant fall in the rig count over the last couple of months is also reflected in the EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States, which fell again this week to 11.5 million barrels of oil per day on average for week ending May 15, which is 1.6 million bpd off the all-time high and 100,000 bpd lower than the week prior. It is the seventh straight weekly production decline.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9352
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3745
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3829 on: May 26, 2020, 08:10:02 PM »
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

May update from the US EIA out today. But the data is pre-Covid apart from Petroleum and Coal.

Graphs attached.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3830 on: June 02, 2020, 06:10:25 PM »
In the 21st century, most of the newly discovered oil fields have been in tight shale that needs to be fracked or offshore.  Shale has already seen significant declines in production as its too expensive to compete with cheap onshore oil when demand is reduced.  Now offshore fields are shutting down for the same reason.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Offshore-Oil-Is-On-The-Brink-Of-Collapse.html

Quote
Offshore Oil Is On The Brink Of Collapse
By Irina Slav - Jun 01, 2020

Project cancellations, spending cuts, well shut-ins: the problems and dilemmas plaguing onshore oil producers have also spread to offshore. And while the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on onshore drilling may already be wearing off here and there where drilling is cheap, they may linger for longer offshore.

Quote
In the North Sea, almost a third of the oil left on the UK continental shelf is no longer economical to extract, a recent study found. According to it, with Brent crude at $45 a barrel, 28 percent of the oil was uneconomical. But Brent hasn’t traded at $45 a barrel for months and is unlikely to reach even $40 a barrel by the end of this year if we are to believe oil analysts. This means that more oil will become uneconomical, and not just in the North Sea.

In the U.S. section of the Gulf of Mexico, Baker Hughes reported a rig count of just 12 in its latest weekly rig count report. That’s down from 22 in March and 19 in April. Forbes’ Scott Carpenter notes this was the lowest weekly rig count in ten years. And it is not unlikely the rig count will continue to fall if prices stay where they are. Meanwhile, production platforms are shutting down, too.

When shale drillers began suspending production because their breakeven prices were higher than the production costs of a barrel of oil in most parts of the U.S. shale patch, there was worry some of that production may be lost forever. The same is true of offshore production. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that producers in the Gulf are shuttering production, and many fear it might take years before this production returns. What is happening in the Gulf of Mexico is happening elsewhere as well, with producers pressured by crippled demand.

Quote
These are by no means unique to offshore but they may have more severe consequences there: offshore projects take longer to get from approval to launch, which means the current project delays—and the cancellations—could stump offshore production growth for years, if not permanently.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18182
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 827
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3831 on: June 04, 2020, 06:53:50 PM »
Twenty thousand tonnes of diesel fuel spilled into a river inside the Arctic Circle forcing Vladimir Putin to order a state of emergency.
The spill occurred when a fuel reservoir at a power plant near the city of Norilsk collapsed on Friday. The plant is operated by a division of Nornickel, whose factories in the area have made the city one of the most heavily polluted places on Earth

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3832 on: June 04, 2020, 08:10:58 PM »
Oil prices staged a recovery from record lows during May.  Recent changes to production now threaten the price recovery.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Outlook-For-Oil-Remains-Grim-Despite-90-Rally.html

Quote
Outlook For Oil Remains Grim Despite 90% Rally
By Irina Slav - Jun 04, 2020

WTI rose almost 90 percent last month, which is the strongest monthly increase in the U.S. benchmark price ever recorded. Naturally, the news has been cause for joy among those rooting for higher oil prices. But should it?

Quote
What's more, U.S. shale producers are beginning to restart their shut-in wells. This is a necessity for many of them: the longer a well stays shut-in, the higher the risk of losing production. But this means production will be coming back when storage facilities are still full. Demand simply cannot recover this fast, and fuel inventories are proving it: for two weeks now, gasoline and distillate fuel inventories have been rising, with the latest weekly data showing a 2.8-million-barrel rise in gasoline and a 9.9-million-barrel increase in distillate fuel stockpiles.

The global picture is not rosier, either. More than a billion barrels of unsellable crude sits in storage facilities around the world, Bloomberg's Grant Smith reported earlier this week. Production may be lower, but these barrels are going nowhere anytime soon.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3833 on: June 05, 2020, 01:35:09 AM »
The world-wide gas glut has gotten worse.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/6/2/not-even-russian-output-cuts-can-stop-europe-s-natural-gas-surplus

Quote
Not even Russian output cuts can stop Europe’s natural gas surplus
By Anna Shiryaevskaya and Vanessa Dezem on 6/2/2020

LONDON (Bloomberg) --The natural gas glut is now so severe that prices hardly move even when Europe’s biggest supplier curbs flows to the region.

Europe is choking with gas as demand slumped in line with the virus-stricken global economy, storage sites are more full than usual and little respite is seen in liquefied natural gas imports even with benchmark prices near record lows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-may-next-major-230000786.html

Quote
Natural Gas May Be the Next Commodity to Trade Below Zero
[Bloomberg]
Stephen Stapczynski, Anna Shiryaevskaya and Vanessa Dezem
Bloomberg June 2, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- The specter of negative prices is hanging over energy markets more than a month after oil’s unforgettable crash below zero.

While crude has staged a rapid recovery after a deal by the biggest producers to curb a surplus, the $600 billion global gas market remains extraordinarily oversupplied. Traders and analysts say the worst may be yet to come as demand falls and storage nears capacity, creating the ideal conditions for negative prices in some parts of the world.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3834 on: June 05, 2020, 08:38:35 PM »
US oil production keeps dropping even though the price has rebounded (somewhat).

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Crashes-Below-300.html

Quote
U.S. Rig Count Crashes Below 300
By Julianne Geiger - Jun 05, 2020

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US fell again this week by 17, falling to 284, with the total oil and gas rigs sitting at 691 fewer than this time last year.

Quote
The significant fall in the rig count over the last couple of months is also reflected in the steady decline of EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States, which fell again this week to 11.2 million barrels of oil per day on average for week ending May 29, which is 1.9 million bpd off the all-time high and 200,000 bpd lower than the week prior. It is the ninth straight weekly production decline.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3835 on: June 05, 2020, 08:45:29 PM »
Updated estimates for oil demand are not good for the industry, to put it mildly.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Global-Oil-Demand-To-Fall-To-Levels-Not-Seen-Since-2014.html

Quote
Global Oil Demand To Fall To Levels Not Seen Since 2014
By Irina Slav - Jun 05, 2020

Crude oil demand this year will fall to around 90.6 million bpd this year, OPEC’s secretary-general Mohammed Barkindo said ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting, as cited by Trend.

Quote
“World oil demand growth in 2020 is expected to drop by a staggering 9.07 mb/d, with the worst impact seen in this quarter. We expect demand for the year to be around 90.59 mb/d – back to levels last seen before the 2014-2016 market downturn,” the top official said.

This is not good news because oil in storage remains high, according to the latest data from analytics firm OilX. Oil in floating storage has begun to be drained, OilX said, but oil in onshore storage was still rising in May. To date, total oil in onshore storage is above 4.5 billion barrels. Of this, some 1 billion barrels flowed into storage in the past couple of months and will take a lot longer to clear up.

Quote
Whatever happens, the effect of the crisis has already been devastating for the industry. Barkindo noted that investment in oil and gas could fall by as much as 23 percent this year from last, to about 50 percent of the record-high $741 billion invested in 2014. There will be bankruptcies and layoffs in what the official called a repeat of the 2014-2016 scenario.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3836 on: June 05, 2020, 08:53:21 PM »
Bad news for the oil industry is good news for the environment.  The decrease in fracking activity leads directly to a decrease in carbon emissions.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Gas-Flaring-CO2-Emissions-In-Permian-Set-To-Halve.html

Quote
Gas-Flaring CO2 Emissions In Permian Set To Halve
By Irina Slav - Jun 05, 2020

Carbon dioxide emissions resulting from gas flaring in the Permian are set to fall by one-half during the second half of this year, Rystad Energy said, citing the forced production cuts that most, if not all, producers in the shale play had to implement during the current quarter.

Quote
But it will not be just the production cuts that will drive emissions down: “However, assuming that most volumes are brought back in 2H20, we anticipate a significant downward shift in flaring-driven emission intensity,” Abramov also said.

This will be a result of few new well additions during the second half of the year as the price situation will likely remain too weak to motivate investment in new well drilling.

Quote
Last year, gas flaring in the Permian hit an all-time high of 661 million cu ft daily, driven by insufficient pipeline takeaway capacity that forced producers to flare the associated gas from their oil wells.

Gas flaring is the practice of burning associated gas that comes out of an oil well with the oil. In 2018, the shale boom drove the amount of gas flared in the United States up 48 percent, and the global total up 3 percent to 145 billion cubic meters, according to data from the World Bank.

The article ignores methane emissions entirely.  Methane is emitted even when the wells are flared as the flares don't burn 100% of the gas.  And when the flares go out, methane is vented directly into the atmosphere.

rboyd

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 232
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3837 on: June 05, 2020, 10:20:17 PM »
Methane - The fracking gift that just keeps on giving:

Satellite Data Reveals Extreme Methane Emissions from Permian Oil & Gas Operations; Shows highest emissions ever measured from a major U.S. oil and gas basin

3.7% of all natural gas escaping to the atmosphere as methane that
Quote
nearly triples the 20-year climate impact of burning the gas they’re producing

And every shutdown oil and gas well has the capacity to keep spewing methane into the atmosphere for many, many decades. There are many 100,000's of such wells, and I don't see the cash strapped and bankrupt oil and gas companies taking care to seal them properly. Another socialized cost of the fossil fuel industry.

https://www.edf.org/media/satellite-data-reveals-extreme-methane-emissions-permian-oil-gas-operations-shows-highest

rboyd

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 232
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3838 on: June 05, 2020, 10:21:29 PM »
China’s Oil Demand Rebounds To Pre-Coronavirus Levels

That was fast!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Oil-Demand-Rebounds-To-Pre-Coronavirus-Levels.html

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3839 on: June 06, 2020, 12:32:13 AM »
^^^
They're talking about refinery runs in the that article.  China is buying up a lot of crude oil while it's cheap and refining it.

Actual demand has only recovered to 90% of pre-Covid levels.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-demand-analysis/china-drives-global-oil-demand-recovery-out-of-coronavirus-collapse-idUSKBN23A0XF

Quote
China drives global oil demand recovery out of coronavirus collapse
Muyu Xu, Stephanie Kelly, Yuka Obayashi

BEIJING/NEW YORK/TOKYO (Reuters) - China’s oil demand has recovered to more than 90% of the levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic struck early this year, a surprisingly robust rebound that could be mirrored elsewhere in the third quarter as more countries emerge from lockdowns.

And China may be in for a very slow recovery, as the rest of the world isn't buying as many Chinese products as they used to.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3087296/coronavirus-chinas-services-sector-returns-growth-pandemic

Quote
China’s services sector shows strong first growth since start of coronavirus outbreak as controls eased

    The Caixin/Markit services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 55.0 in May from 44.4 in April, hitting the highest level since late 2010
    The return to expansion for China’s services sector was driven by a sharp rise in new domestic business as the economy recovers from virus containment measures

SCMP Reporter
3 Jun, 2020

China’s services sector bounced back strongly in May, posting the first growth since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak earlier this year, as strict controls aimed at containing the pandemic were eased, a private survey showed on Wednesday.

Quote
Foreign demand, however, remained subdued as the pandemic hit China’s export markets hard, with the subindex for export orders falling for the fourth month in a row.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade/china-may-exports-seen-tumbling-as-coronavirus-hits-demand-imports-fall-reuters-poll-idUSKBN23C0N7

Quote
June 4, 2020
China May exports seen tumbling as coronavirus hits demand; imports fall: Reuters poll

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s exports likely tumbled in May after a surprising rebound the previous month as global coronavirus lockdowns continued to devastate demand, but imports showed some signs of improvement as Chinese manufacturers got back on their feet, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Quote
May exports in the world’s second-largest economy are expected to have contracted 7% from a year earlier, according to a median estimate from the survey of 23 economists, compared with an unexpected 3.5% gain in April.

Imports likely fell 9.7% on year, the poll showed, easing from a 14.2% drop the previous month, due to recovering global oil prices, a low base last year and as manufacturers cranked up operations.

Both official and private factory surveys for May showed sub-indexes for export orders remained in contraction, suggesting strong external headwinds on Chinese exporters in the near term.

Quote
Many Chinese exporters, stuck with unsold stock and cancelled orders from abroad, are cutting staff and moving into e-commerce to target the domestic market.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3840 on: June 06, 2020, 12:46:37 AM »
Sinopec, China's large oil firm, expects the behavioral changes (telework, avoiding airline travel) due to Covid to reduce oil demand for the foreseeable future.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2103661-chinas-sinopec-forecasts-bleak-oil-demand-outlook

Quote
China’s Sinopec forecasts bleak oil demand outlook

Published date: 08 May 2020

The impact from the Covid-19 pandemic will continue to pressure global oil prices but a shift in consumer patterns because of lockdowns may weigh on oil demand in the longer term, according to research by China's biggest state-controlled refiner Sinopec.

Quote
Domestic economic activity in the country has recovered to around 90pc of normal levels but it is unclear when it will fully resume because of the ongoing spread of the coronavirus globally, the EDRI said.

Combined exports of Chinese jet fuel, diesel and gasoline are likely to decline by 10pc on the year in 2020 from about 1.2mn b/d in 2019, marking a contrast with the average 23 pc/yr growth over the past five years, as global traffic movements and economic activity may start to recover only in the second half of the year at the earliest, limiting oil product import needs from China's key trading partners, the EDRI said.

Quote
But the institute is still expecting a 5pc decline on the year in oil products demand in 2020, following a 13pc year-on-year fall in demand during the first quarter. Coal-to-liquid projects, which require a breakeven Brent crude price of $60/bl, are also likely to see demand for end products fall by 5-6pc on the year in 2020.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18182
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 827
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3841 on: June 06, 2020, 02:59:28 AM »
San Francisco, other California cities permitted to sue oil industry over climate change, judges rule
Quote
Several California communities suing the oil industry over climate change got welcome news Tuesday when a panel of federal judges said their cases could move forward in state court.

The five cities and three counties, which include San Francisco, are seeking billions of dollars from fossil fuel producers in first-of-its-kind litigation that alleges the companies caused pricey climate problems, including rising seas and extreme weather. But the lawsuits, originally filed separately in state court, have been clouded by the question of whether the subject matter is more appropriate for federal court, where the cases may also be harder to win.

San Francisco’s suit against five petroleum giants, which was combined with one from Oakland, was moved to federal court at the urging of the defendants, only to be dismissed two years ago. Tuesday’s decision by the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals resurrects the cases of both cities. The litigation targets Chevron, BP, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Shell.
[paywalled] https://www.sfchronicle.com/environment/article/SF-other-California-cities-permitted-to-sue-oil-15295592.php
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18182
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 827
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3842 on: June 09, 2020, 02:34:19 AM »
BP Slashes 10,000 Jobs as Oil Stocks Surge
Quote
British oil and gas giant BP (NYSE:BP) is set to cut its global headcount by about 10,000 people. In an email to employees, CEO Bernard Looney announced the job cuts, which work out to about 15% of the company's workforce. This is a reversal from the company's moratorium on job eliminations as the COVID-19 crisis hit the industry hard.

Today's announcement came out even as many oil stocks rallied, following news that the OPEC+ group of oil-producting nations had agreed to extend their record oil output cuts deal through the end of July.

"Can't make worries disappear"

In the email, which was obtained by numerous media outlets, Looney pointed out that BP, like most major oil companies, continues to burn more cash than it is earning with every passing day. After putting it off for three months, BP is joining the ranks of other oil and gas majors to cut staff. Even with prices up sharply over the past month, global oil demand is still down sharply, while oil output -- even with the OPEC+ deal taking almost 10 million barrels per day off the market -- continues to exceed consumption.

As Looney put it to employees, he "can't make [their] worries disappear." BP reported as $4.4 billion loss last quarter, and a nearly 90% sequential decline in operating cash flows. Free cash flows fell from almost $4 billion in the prior quarter, to $2.84 billion in negative free cash flows.

Riding out a protracted downturn

Even though many oil stocks have rallied over the past month on rising crude prices and big declines in oil production, oil producers continue to book massive losses. Crude prices are still below breakeven for most producers, while demand is still down as much as 20% in much of the world. Factor in record levels of oil in commercial storage, in offshore storage in shipping vessels, and record levels of refined products in storage, the industry could face a protracted downturn.

To ride out that downturn, BP is taking steps to cut costs. Another 10,000 people will be hitting the global unemployed ranks as a result. 
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/08/bp-slashes-10000-jobs-as-oil-stocks-surge.aspx
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3843 on: June 11, 2020, 01:20:33 AM »
Natural gas demand for 2020 is expected to drop by 4% from 2019.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-True-Impact-Of-COVID-19-On-Natural-Gas-Demand.html

Quote
The True Impact Of COVID-19 On Natural Gas Demand
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jun 10, 2020

Global natural gas markets are facing the largest demand shock in recorded history. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new Gas 2020 report, consumption of natural gas is expected to drop by twice the amount it did after the 2008 financial crisis.

The coronavirus pandemic and an exceptionally mild winter in the northern hemisphere are setting the stage for the largest recorded demand shock in the history of global natural gas markets, the agency said.

Global natural gas demand is expected to drop by 4 percent year on year, or by 150 billion cubic meters, in 2020. This would represent twice the amount of demand lost after the 2008 financial crisis. Gas demand in all regions will be hit, but the biggest impact will be felt in mature markets across Europe, North America, Asia, and Eurasia which together will account for about 75 percent of lost gas consumption this year, the IEA said.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18182
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 827
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3844 on: June 11, 2020, 08:34:36 PM »
Thurs june 11. 
Oil drops more than 10% as fears over second wave of coronavirus cases hit the market
Quote
Oil prices dropped more than 8% on Thursday amid a broader market sell-off as fears over a second wave of coronavirus cases led to investors shedding assets.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, fell 10.25%, or $4.00, to trade at $35.60 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude slid 8.7%, or $3.56, to trade at $38.17 per barrel.

Oil has been rallying on the back of an uptick in demand paired with record supply cuts, but data on Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a surprise build in inventory, suggesting that the demand recovery may have stalled.

For the week ending June 5, inventory rose by 5.7 million barrels to a record high of 538.1 million barrels.
...
In the U.S., production has pulled back from a record of over 13 million barrels per day in March as historically low prices prompted companies to reduce output.

But with oil moving higher in recent weeks, some producers have begun to open the taps once again, which could send prices lower.
...
"The global economy is still in a precarious position," noted Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit. "The dip in oil prices in recent days most likely reflects the end of the price boost that came from the initial economic re-opening. The global economy is now settling in for a long, slow recovery process, which we only expect to pick up in late 2021, assuming a Covid-19 vaccine becomes available then," she added.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/oil-news-crude-wti-prices-today.html

The Dow is currently down more than 1500 points, to about 25,500.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3845 on: June 13, 2020, 12:32:52 AM »
The oil and gas rig count only dropped by 5 this week.  That's down 690 from the same time last year.  Production continues to decline.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Rigs-Dip-Below-200-For-First-Time-Since-2005.html

Quote
U.S. Oil Rigs Dip Below 200 For First Time Since 2005
By Julianne Geiger - Jun 12, 2020

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US fell again this week, by 5, to 279, with the total oil and gas rigs sitting at 690 fewer than this time last year.

Quote
The significant fall in the rig count over the last couple of months is also reflected in the steady decline of EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States, which fell again this week to 11.1 million barrels of oil per day on average for week ending June 5, which is 2 million bpd off the all-time high and 100,000 bpd lower than the week prior. It is the tenth straight weekly production decline.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9352
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3745
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3846 on: June 16, 2020, 01:17:03 PM »
One oil major bites one (of many) bullets heading towards the oil majors.

But net-zero carbon target for 2050 won't cut it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/15/bp-expects-covid-19-to-have-enduring-impact-on-global-economy
BP expects to take $17.5bn hit due to coronavirus writedown

company says it may be forced to leave some of its fossil fuel discoveries in the ground

Quote
BP’s boss, Bernard Looney, said the company had “reset” its oil forecasts to reflect the lasting impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy and the likelihood of “greater efforts to ‘build back better’ towards a Paris-consistent world” in the aftermath of the pandemic.

BP expects Brent crude oil to average about $55 a barrel between 2021 and 2050, and $2.90 per million British thermal units for Henry Hub gas, the benchmark for natural gas. The forecasts are 27% and 31% lower respectively than the average prices used in its latest annual report. Brent crude is trading at $38 a barrel.

The reset is likely to accelerate BP’s plans to end its contribution to the climate crisis by 2050, which BP’s incoming chief executive revealed earlier this year. Looney is expected to set out detailed plans for BP to reduce its carbon emissions to net zero in September this year.

The new chief executive, who took the helm of the oil firm in February, told the Guardian last month that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic had deepened his commitment to shrinking the oil giant’s carbon footprint to zero.

He said he was “more convinced than ever” that BP must move towards a net-zero carbon target for 2050, set out earlier this year, by spending less on oil and gas and more on low-carbon energy sources.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9352
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3745
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3847 on: June 16, 2020, 10:00:29 PM »
In complete contrast to BP, the IEA says if Governments don't pull their collective finger out, demand for oil & gas will rebound to pre-covid levels in 2022.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/16/global-oil-demand-could-hit-record-rate-next-year-iea-warns
Global oil demand could hit record growth rate next year, IEA warns
With no plans to raise clean energy investment, demand will soon reach pre-crisis level

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, forecasts that the world’s daily oil demand will climb by 5.7m barrels next year.

Quote
The world’s oil demand could climb at its fastest rate in the history of the market next year, and may reach pre-crisis levels within years, unless new green policies are adopted, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The global energy watchdog has forecast that the world’s daily oil demand may climb by 5.7m barrels next year, the fastest annual climb on record, to an average of 97m barrels of oil a day in 2021.

The demand forecasts for next year fall short of levels recorded in 2019 because the record rebound will only partially offset the severe oil demand collapse triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, which is expected to erase an average of 8.1m barrels of oil a day from global demand during 2020.

Video conferencing alone will not solve our energy and climate challenges.
Fatih Birol, IEA chief


But global oil demand could return to pre-crisis levels as soon as 2022 if governments avoid a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak and restart the aviation industry, without putting in place new plans to accelerate clean energy investment.

The IEA’s latest oil report, used by many major economies to help shape their energy policies, casts doubt over claims by some that the coronavirus has already triggered a terminal decline for oil demand.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ken Feldman

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 139
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3848 on: June 17, 2020, 01:39:17 AM »
In complete contrast to BP, the IEA says if Governments don't pull their collective finger out, demand for oil & gas will rebound to pre-covid levels in 2022.


Quote



But global oil demand could return to pre-crisis levels as soon as 2022 if governments avoid a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak and restart the aviation industry, without putting in place new plans to accelerate clean energy investment.

The IEA’s latest oil report, used by many major economies to help shape their energy policies, casts doubt over claims by some that the coronavirus has already triggered a terminal decline for oil demand.


The first condition, avoiding a second wave, looks increasingly unlikely, given that in the US at least, states have been reopening their economies before the first wave is over.  Infections are spiking again and several states are nearing hospital capacity.  Return to lockdowns are probably more likely than avoiding a second wave.

The second condition, a return of the aviation industry to pre-covid levels, is years away.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/07/871725822/u-s-airlines-add-flights-as-demand-increases-but-recovery-will-take-years

Quote
U.S. Airlines Add Flights As Demand Increases, But Recovery Will Take Years

June 7, 2020

Quote
Despite the modest increases in flights and capacity, the airline industry faces a long road to recovery. In the week ending May 31, domestic flights averaged 54 passengers, a drop from typical ranges of between 80 and 100 passengers in January and February, but more than lows of just 17 passengers in late March and early April. Demand for future air travel is also down 82%, according to data collected by industry association Flights for America.

And air travel demand is expected to remain below 2019 levels until 2023, credit ratings agency S&P Global Ratings said in a recent report.

Quote
American has already implemented several cost-saving measures, from accelerating the retirement of certain aircraft types to suspending nonessential hiring to implementing voluntary leave or early retirement programs. The airline will also announce a 30% reduction of its executive staff, Raja said.

The airlines have been retiring their older, less fuel efficient aircraft.  So even if air traffic returns to previous levels, they'll be using less fuel.

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Special Report: Millions of abandoned oil wells are leaking methane
« Reply #3849 on: June 17, 2020, 04:19:27 PM »
Special Report: Millions of abandoned oil wells are leaking methane, a climate menace

<Merged the post with this thread since it needs some policy and solutions. Kassy>
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 05:22:55 PM by kassy »
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer