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Iain

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4000 on: January 07, 2021, 02:15:46 PM »
In other news, there is little appetite for new Oil exploration in Alaska:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55564483

"Major companies, including oil giant Exxon, Shell and BP, have said they are focusing their spending on renewable energy, amid a huge slump in oil prices"
"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4001 on: January 11, 2021, 08:45:31 PM »
Experts suggest we've seen both peak oil demand and peak oil supply.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Very-Real-Possibility-Of-Peak-Oil-Supply.html

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The Very Real Possibility Of Peak Oil Supply
By Alex Kimani - Dec 26, 2020

[Three months ago, British oil giant BP Plc. (NYSE:BP) sent shockwaves through the oil and gas sector after it declared that Peak Oil demand was already behind us. In the company’s 2020 Energy Outlook, chief executive Bernard Looney pledged that BP would increase its renewables spending twentyfold to $5 billion a year by 2030 and ‘‘... not enter any new countries for oil and gas exploration.’’ That announcement came as a bit of a shocker given how aggressive BP has been in exploring new oil and gas frontiers./quote]

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Delving deeper into the global oil and gas outlook suggests that it’s peak oil supply, not peak oil demand, that’s likely to start dominating headlines as the quarters roll on.



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BP has modeled 3 possible scenarios for the future of global fuel and electricity demand: Business as Usual, Rapid Transition, and Net-Zero. Here’s the kicker: BP says that even under the most optimistic scenario where energy policy keeps evolving at pretty much the pace it is today (Business as Usual) oil demand will still suffer declines—only at a later date and a slower pace compared to the other two scenarios.

The oil bulls, however, can take comfort in the fact that under the Business-as-Usual scenario, BP sees oil demand remaining at 2018 levels of 97-98 million barrels per day till 2030 before falling to 94 million barrels per day in 2040 and eventually to 89 million barrels per day three decades from now. That’s a loss in demand of less than 1% per year through 2050.
However, things could look very different under the other two scenarios that entail aggressive government policies aimed at reaching net-zero status by 2050 as well as carbon prices and other interventions aimed at limiting global warming.

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Though rarely discussed seriously, Peak Oil Supply remains a distinct possibility over the next couple of years.

In the past, supply-side “peak oil” theory mostly turned out to be wrong mainly because its proponents invariably underestimated the enormity of yet-to-be-discovered resources. In more recent years, demand-side “peak oil” theory has always managed to overestimate the ability of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles to displace fossil fuels.

Then, of course, few could have foretold the explosive growth of U.S. shale that added 13 million barrels per day to global supply from 1-2 million b/d in the space of just a decade.

It’s ironic that the shale crisis is likely to be responsible for triggering Peak Oil Supply.

In an excellent op/ed, vice chairman of IHS Markit Dan Yergin observes that it’s almost inevitable that shale output will go in reverse and decline thanks to drastic cutbacks in investment and only later recover at a slow pace. Shale oil wells decline at an exceptionally fast clip and therefore require constant drilling to replenish the lost supply. Although the U.S. rig count appears to be stabilizing thanks to oil prices rebounding from low-30s to mid-40s, the latest tally of 320 remains far below the year-ago figure of 802.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4002 on: January 12, 2021, 05:53:28 PM »
US gasoline demand is well off peak levels and hindering the oil industry recovery from the Covid shutdowns.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-The-Last-Leg-Of-The-Oil-Demand-Recovery-Is-The-Hardest.html

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Why The Last Leg Of The Oil Demand Recovery Is The Hardest
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 11, 2021

Over the past six months, excess U.S. crude oil and product inventories have declined from their surplus at the start of the summer of 2020. Petroleum inventories have been slowly falling and are now at just single-digit-percent surpluses over five-year averages, compared to 20-30 percent excess over five-year seasonal averages last summer.   Demand for gasoline and other petroleum products in the United States has recovered from multi-year lows in April and May, but the last leg of the recovery to pre-pandemic levels proves to be the most difficult and seems to have stalled at the end of 2020.

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However, the largest component of U.S. oil demand—gasoline consumption—was still down by a double-digit percentage. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 7.9 million bpd, down by 11.8 percent from the same period last year, EIA said.

This suggests that the last part of the oil demand recovery will be the hardest, with the most recent data pointing to a stall again due to reduced travel amid measures to fight soaring COVID-19 cases.

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U.S. gasoline demand was at the lowest level for the last week of December in 23 years (since 1998)—at 8.1 million bpd, with holiday travel down by at least 25 percent, AAA said last week. As of January 4, AAA expected gasoline demand to dwindle in coming weeks as the holiday season ended.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4003 on: January 15, 2021, 01:08:58 AM »
Alberta is Canada's most American province.
It reliably elects conservative governments (except when the regular right wing internecine wars rip the Party apart).
It is far and away the largest fossil fuel producer in Canada, and is the single biggest impediment to Canada achieving its climate commitments.
In recent years an otherwise undistinguished blogger called Vivian Krause concocted a conspiracy theory that radical environmentalists were being funded by a sinister cabal of American interests to shut down Alberta's oil and gas industries so that American O&G could reign supreme.
She got considerable traction in the fringes of Alberta's right wing during a period when they were out of power (subsequent to a split between the far right and the extreme right).
When a federal politician moved back into provincial politics and re-united the conservative factions into the currently reigning United Conservative Party, he did so partly by swallowing whole the conspiracy theory, under the assumption that the centrist party that had been in power was insufficiently enamoured of fossil fuels and thus fellow travellers to the foreign funded radicals.
To fulfill an election promise, the new Alberta government funded a public inquiry into 'Anti Alberta Energy Activities', apparently blind to the unfortunate associations between the name of this inquiry and the anti commie inquisition in America in the 1950s.
This public inquiry spent a lot of money commissioning reports that were intended to back up the conspiracy theory.
Today an Albertan law professor who had been asked to review these reports - by the Inquiry- released his take on the reports.
As one might expect, the conspiracy theories did not stand up to scrutiny.
Alberta's fossil fuel industries continue to decline despite this and other (E.G. changing land use designations so that the Rocky Mountains can be turned into open pit coal mines) initiatives.
https://ablawg.ca/2021/01/14/textbook-climate-denialism-a-submission-to-the-public-inquiry-into-anti-alberta-energy-campaigns/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4004 on: January 18, 2021, 05:59:59 PM »
Biden to yank Keystone XL permit on first day of presidency
Rescinding Keystone XL would negate one of President Donald Trump's own first actions in office and kill a project that had become a political totem in the fight between climate activists and the oil industry.

Environmentalists applauded the decision. "President-elect Biden is showing courage and empathy to the farmers, ranchers and tribal nations who have dealt with an ongoing threat that disrupted their lives for over a decade"
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/17/biden-yank-keystone-pipeline-permit-460142
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4005 on: Today at 02:07:25 AM »
What to do with all those offshore drilling platforms as the contractors go bankrupt?  How about turning them into the first generation of (sustainably fueled) offshore spaceports?

SpaceX bought two floating oil platforms from a bankrupt offshore drilling contractor for a mere $7 million just a decade after completion.
Six months after CEO Elon Musk revealed that “SpaceX is building floating, superheavy-class spaceports” for its next-generation Starship rocket, the company has already purchased and begun converting at least two retired oil rigs.

SpaceX is turning oil rigs into floating Starship spaceports named after Mars’ moons
By Eric Ralph January 19, 2021
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-building-floating-starship-spaceports-phobos-deimos/

SpaceX acquires former oil rigs to serve as floating Starship spaceports
 Thomas BurghardtJanuary 19, 2021
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Job postings by SpaceX have indicated that work on offshore launch platforms has begun in Brownsville, Texas, near their Starship manufacturing and launch facilities in Boca Chica.

Positions included crane operators, electricians, and offshore operations engineers, and several of the job listings specified that the position was part of the company’s Starship program. Job descriptions for these positions included responsibilities like “designing and building an operational offshore rocket launch facility” and required the “ability to work on an offshore platform in Brownsville, Texas.” …
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/01/spacex-rigs-starship-spaceports/

Aside:  The Boca Chica, Texas, Starship Production Complex has already begun installing equipment to produce propellent for its rockets, eventually in a sustainable manner as will be required on Mars.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.