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DrTskoul

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2300 on: April 19, 2018, 12:36:27 AM »
Some learning rate estimates for PV. On average that PV learning curves 50% higher than natural gas.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2301 on: April 19, 2018, 04:35:22 AM »
Bob, what’s your nameplate capacity per panel?

The panels I’ve bern quoted would be 295 W.

Price is going down, but efficiency is also going up.

Revolutions are made of thousands of small evolutionary changes.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2302 on: April 19, 2018, 05:07:16 AM »
My panels (pre-2000) are 75 watts each.  I have 16 for a total of 1.2 kW. 

When I bought these (pre-owned) they cost me $4/watt.  New panels at the time were $8/watt.

And they are, IIRC, only 12% efficient.  That makes for a couple of big racks for not that much generation.

My previous array was only 400 watts.  The panels had been used at a test site where lenses were used to concentrate sunlight on them as an attempt to get around the high cost of panels.  I think I paid something like $6/watt for some abused panels with a short warranty.

Earlier I bought two 35 watt panels for my sailboat so that I could listen to music and read at night.  I think they were more than $12/watt.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2303 on: April 19, 2018, 03:00:52 PM »
Oh, they’re small, not 60-cell jobs.

Still, today the panels cost less than a tenth as much per Watt and produce the same power on a third less area.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2304 on: April 19, 2018, 04:58:30 PM »
I believe that was as large a panel one could purchase at the time.  Larger panels appeared later as, I assume, the push to lower costs heated up.  Larger means faster installation and fewer connections.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2305 on: April 23, 2018, 01:06:29 PM »
HSBC, Europe's biggest bank retreats from the oilsands, coal, and Arctic drilling
Quote
Europe's largest bank has joined the list of global investors retreating from new financial commitments in the fossil fuel industry, including investments in oil-rich Alberta.

HSBC, whose global assets total more than $2 trillion, announced Friday that as the climate change crisis deepens, it will no longer finance new coal-fired power plants (with a few targeted exceptions), Arctic drilling or new oilsands projects, including pipelines.
...
A long list of lost investors

Over the years, the fossil fuel sector has lost a number of major investors, which have either reduced, eliminated or committed to phase out support for coal, oil and gas, through a variety of different pledges. It's part of a global divestment movement that so far includes France's BNP Paribas, the World Bank, insurance giant AXA, ING, and Sweden’s largest pension fund, AP7, among others. ...
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/04/20/news/europes-biggest-bank-retreats-oilsands
« Last Edit: April 23, 2018, 04:10:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2306 on: April 23, 2018, 05:49:30 PM »
While the linked reference indicates that the near-term exploitation of Russia's shale-oil will be limited; still I wonder as Russia has the world's largest reserves of technically recoverable shale oil, whether beginning in the 2040 to 2050 timeframe, the exploitation of these reserves could act as a meaningful source of radiative forcing:

Valeriy Kryukov & Arild Moe (August 2018), "Does Russian unconventional oil have a future?", Energy Policy, Volume 119, Pages 41–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.021

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518302374

Abstract: "Russia is estimated to hold the world's largest technically recoverable shale-oil resources. The conventional oil resource base is still very large, but there are doubts about how much is economically recoverable. Increasing attention is given to unconventional oil. The purpose of the article is to assess whether fundamental conditions for sustainable, profitable production of unconventional oil are in place. Compared to the successful development of unconventional oil in the USA, Russia has several disadvantages. The Russian oil sector is dominated by big companies without the flexibility in methods and decision-making required in very heterogeneous unconventional projects. Infrastructure is less accessible in Russia than in most American projects. On a more fundamental level the relatively poor condition of geological data collections is a serious cost increasing factor, and the system for development and dispersion of new technologies has critical shortcomings. Russia lacks appreciation of risk taking and a corresponding regulatory framework, as well as relevant financial mechanisms. Nevertheless, government documents almost exclusively focus on technology as such as well as on taxation and tax benefits as preconditions for successful development. Without addressing the fundamental institutional problems, the potential for exploiting the resources base will be limited."
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2307 on: April 23, 2018, 05:52:20 PM »
Quote
in the 2040 to 2050 timeframe, the exploitation of these reserves could act as a meaningful source of radiative forcing

They could.  If there is anyone left burning oil.


Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2308 on: April 23, 2018, 07:12:53 PM »
Trump's revenge: U.S. oil floods Europe, hurting OPEC and Russia

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-revenge-u-oil-floods-europe-hurting-opec-131846913--finance.html

Quote
"U.S. oil is on offer everywhere," said a trader with a Mediterranean refiner, who regularly buys Russian and Caspian Sea crude and has recently started purchasing U.S. oil. "It puts local grades under a lot of pressure."

U.S. oil output is expected to hit 10.7 million bpd this year, rivalling that of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.

In April, U.S. supplies to Europe are set to reach an all-time high of roughly 550,000 bpd (around 2.2 million tonnes), according to the Thomson Reuters Eikon trade flows monitor.


In January-April, U.S. supplies jumped four-fold year-on-year to 6.8 million tonnes, or 68 large Aframax tankers, according to the same data.

Trade sources said U.S. flows to Europe would keep rising, with U.S. barrels increasingly finding homes in foreign refineries, often at the expense of oil from OPEC or Russia.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2309 on: April 25, 2018, 01:49:43 PM »
The resistance by the big oil companies just went up a notch in the UK. Note the implied threat on funding research at Cambridge Unversity

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/24/bp-bob-dudley-urges-cambridge-university-keep-fossil-fuel-investments

BP chief urges Cambridge University to keep fossil fuel investments
Bob Dudley faces criticism for calling for university to ‘come to its senses’ over divestment


Quote
BP’s chief executive has come under fire from campaigners after he urged Cambridge University not to drop its fossil fuel investments.

Bob Dudley was greeted with laughter when he told an industry conference on Tuesday: “We donate and do lots of research at Cambridge so I hope they come to their senses on this.”

His comments came a week after he launched BP’s climate change strategy, which involves expanding into clean energy and capping carbon emissions.

“These [divestment] efforts are coming out of the US, the east coast and west coast, and New York, and it is generally the simplified idea that we turn everything into renewables – that climate change will be solved by renewables,” he said.

“When you dig into it and look into the numbers, of course, it can’t work. You’ve got to get more sophisticated about it.”
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2310 on: April 27, 2018, 09:00:14 PM »
Here's an interesting chart of US NONCONVENTIONAL Oil production by "field" (area).  It shows where the "fracking" production is.

A couple things to note:

1)  The Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico produces almost half of the "non-conventional" oil production in the US.

2)  Note....that in 2015 and 2016 when the other US "frackers" were CUTTING BACK on their production ..... the Permian Basin CONTINUED TO INCREASE their production slightly.  This is because the COST of drilling in the Permian Basin is LESS than in other areas of the US.

This chart was at the end of this January .... so it does not have Feb and March data.





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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2311 on: May 02, 2018, 12:58:24 PM »
Oil Crumbles As API Reports Large Crude Build

Right now ...... political issues in Iran is supporting the price of oil.  If nothing "big" happens in Iran, future oil prices will pull back.  Production continues to ramp up in the Permian Basin and will continue as long as prices remain high.  There are 3 things to watch for the price of oil over the next several weeks:

1)  Inventory changes (up or down.... I expect them to trend UP).
2)  The direction of the US dollar.  It looks poised to RISE .....which would push DOWN oil prices (other things being equal).
3)  Iran political/military issues.  This is now supporting oil prices in the short term.

Quote
With oil prices already down on the day, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large build of 3.427 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending April 27, compared to analyst expectations that this week would see a smaller build in crude oil inventories of 739,000 barrels.

Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a draw of 1.099 million barrels of crude oil.

The API reported a build in gasoline inventories for week ending April 27 in the amount of 1.602 million barrels—a surprise given the 587,000-barrel draw that analysts had expected.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Crumbles-As-API-Reports-Large-Crude-Build.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2312 on: May 04, 2018, 01:02:31 PM »
U.S.:  EPA grants ‘financial hardship’ waiver to oil refinery owned by billionaire, Trump confidant Carl Icahn
Icahn vetted Pruitt for top EPA job at Trump's request.
Quote
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has granted a financial hardship waiver to an Oklahoma oil refinery owned by billionaire and Trump confidant Carl Icahn.

First reported by Reuters, the waiver will exempt the oil refinery from requirements under a federal biofuels law — the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) — effectively allowing it to avoid tens of millions of dollars in costs. The RFS rules aim to limit air pollution, reduce oil imports, and support corn farmers by requiring refineries to include biofuels in the nation’s gasoline and diesel mix. ...
https://thinkprogress.org/epa-grants-financial-hardship-waiver-carl-icahn-99abf3315063/
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2313 on: May 04, 2018, 02:21:45 PM »
The Incredible Shrinking Exxon

My, how times have changed.....

Quote
Exxon Mobil  XOM -0.34%▲  put an exclamation point on what ails big oil on Friday.

Never mind the immediate reaction to its slightly tepid first-quarter results. Despite just announcing its 36th annual dividend increase in a row, the total shareholder return of the world’s largest publicly held oil company is flat over the past year even as crude prices have rallied by over 50%.

One needs to look back a bit farther in time to explain that dichotomy. A decade ago, at the dawn of the shale boom, Exxon’s stock-market value could have paid for tech giants Apple , Amazon and what was then called Google and had $100 billion in change left over. The energy sector made up 14% of the S&P 500. Today it is barely 6% and Exxon is worth less than half as much of any one of those technology titans individually.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-incredible-shrinking-exxon-1524846975?mod=djcm_OBV1_092216&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2314 on: May 05, 2018, 09:53:40 PM »
They call it “Astroturfing.”

Actors were paid to support Entergy’s natural gas power plant at New Orleans City Council meetings
Quote
At least four of the people in orange shirts were professional actors. One actor said he recognized 10 to 15 others who work in the local film industry.

“It was very shady, very secretive, especially when we got paid. They literally paid us under the table.”
—One of the actors who was paid to speak at the October meeting


They were paid $60 each time they wore the orange shirts to meetings in October and February. Some got $200 for a “speaking role,” which required them to deliver a prewritten speech, according to interviews with the actors and screenshots of Facebook messages provided to The Lens.

“They paid us to sit through the meeting and clap every time someone said something against wind and solar power,” said Keith Keough, who heard about the opportunity through a friend. ...
https://thelensnola.org/2018/05/04/actors-were-paid-to-support-entergys-power-plant-at-new-orleans-city-council-meetings/
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Archimid

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2315 on: May 06, 2018, 02:52:13 AM »
How Wall Street Enabled the Fracking 'Revolution' That's Losing Billions

https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/05/04/wall-street-shale-oil-fracking-revolution-losing-billions-continental-resources

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The U.S. shale oil industry hailed as a “revolution” has burned through a quarter trillion dollars more than it has brought in over the last decade. It has been a money-losing endeavor of epic proportions.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2316 on: May 06, 2018, 06:46:08 PM »
How Wall Street Enabled the Fracking 'Revolution' That's Losing Billions

https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/05/04/wall-street-shale-oil-fracking-revolution-losing-billions-continental-resources

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The U.S. shale oil industry hailed as a “revolution” has burned through a quarter trillion dollars more than it has brought in over the last decade. It has been a money-losing endeavor of epic proportions.

Looks like the Carbon Bubble could pop at any time....

From your article:
Quote
As reported on DeSmog, the industry certainly got a huge boost from the recent tax law, which will help its companies' short-term finances. Continental Resources alone took home $700 million in tax relief.

Recent reports in the financial press detail how the new approach in the shale industry will be to focus only on profitable oil production, not just producing more barrels at a loss. As The Wall Street Journal put it in a headline: “Wall Street Tells Frackers to Stop Counting Barrels, Start Making Profits.”
...
But has Continental actually embraced this new approach of fiscal responsibility and restraint? 
Not so much.

The fracking firm appears to have done the opposite, increasing production to record levels along with the rest of the shale industry. Continental recently reported plans to drill 350 new wells at an estimated cost of $11.7 million per well, which adds up to over $4 billion in total costs on those wells. The company currently holds more than $6 billion in debt and less than $100 million cash. ...

Related:
As Rest of World Moves Towards Renewables, US Keeps Offering Exclusive Tax Breaks for Fossil Fuels
Quote
“Delve deeper into the oil and gas basins, though, and you hear the rest of the story. Oil and gas fields deplete … and shale fields do so faster than others,” Dizard wrote. “That means the pipelines and processing plants eventually have sandpits at one end and impatient consumers at the other. No matter how many years’ service the pipes and plants could provide, there will not be the production to fill them.”

“Dry wells? Your problem,” he warned in an April 13 column. “That fate has just arrived for the pipes and plants connected to some of the first great shale-gas plays in Barnett, Woodford, and Haynesville. In September, Wells Fargo analysts estimated that four pipelines serving the original boom areas would be re-contracted for much lower volumes.” ...
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/05/06/us-tax-breaks-shale-oil-gas-master-limited-partnerships
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2317 on: May 09, 2018, 08:30:55 PM »
due some to "wars and rumors of wars"
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2318 on: May 09, 2018, 08:55:24 PM »
PDF doesn't embed, but PNG does.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2319 on: May 09, 2018, 09:35:08 PM »
From Wikipedia
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, strategically important strait between the Gulf of Oman in the southeast and the Persian Gulf. On the north coast is Iran and on the south coast is the United Arab Emirates and Musandam, an exclave of Oman.

The strait at its narrowest is 21 nautical miles (39 km) wide.[1] Around 20% of the world's oil passes through the strait

Tensions in 2011–2012
On 27 December 2011, Iranian Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi said Iran would stop oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz should Iran be limited in their oil exports.[7]

On 3 January 2012, Iran threatened to take action if the U.S. Navy moves an aircraft carrier back into the Persian Gulf.[8]

On 7 January 2012, the United Kingdom said that it would be sending the Type 45 destroyer HMS Daring to the Persian Gulf. Daring, which is the lead ship of her class is said to be one of the "most advanced warships" in the world. The ship will have its first mission in the Persian Gulf.[9] The British Government said that this move has been long-planned, as Daring will replace another Armilla patrol frigate.[10]

On 9 January 2012, Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said that Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz.[11]

By 23 January, a flotilla was made by countries against Iran's threats to close the Hormuz Strait.[12] These ships were in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea off the coast of Iran.

Here we go again ?
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2320 on: May 09, 2018, 10:36:39 PM »
Hopefully the EU and China will work around Donny's need to piss on everything Obama accomplished.  They know very well what is happening.

Probably the very best thing that the rest of the world could do right now is to ignore the US as much as possible.  Trade among yourselves, the US will get past this period of insanity. 

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2321 on: May 09, 2018, 10:44:51 PM »
Hopefully the EU and China will work around Donny's need to piss on everything Obama accomplished.  They know very well what is happening.

Probably the very best thing that the rest of the world could do right now is to ignore the US as much as possible.  Trade among yourselves, the US will get past this period of insanity.
India is getting on board saying it will purchase Iranian oil using the Euro.
Not Making the Petro-Dollar Great Again
Terry

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2322 on: May 09, 2018, 11:28:58 PM »
Quote
Looks like the Carbon Bubble could pop at any time....

Indeed.  We actually have been "popping" for quite some time (since 2009 in the oil market)..... it's just that when we hit a new LOW and then "counter rally up"..... it just SEEMS like a "new bubble".  It's just ONE BIG HUGE BUBBLE that has been popping, one step at a time.

You can see the LARGE "see saw" moves below.  After we hit the record high of $147, we have been on a DOWNWARD TREND ..... with LOWER LOWS, AND LOWER HIGHS.  Not good if you are an oil company.

Oil prices over the last 10 years:

UP:  ALL TIME HIGH was $147.30 in July 2008

DOWN:  Next...a LOW of $33.87 in winter of 2009

UP:  Next ....a "LOWER HIGH" (lower than the high of $147) of $115 in April 2011

DOWN:  Next .... a "LOWER LOW" (lower than previous low of $33.87) of $27ish in Jan 2016

UP:  We are currently in the next "LOWER HIGH" move up. The last intermediate high was at $115.

DOWN:  How low will we go AFTER we finish our current "counter rally" up?   

We should be getting pretty close to the end of this current move up to a  "LOWER HIGH")..... but you never know for sure.  There is still a lot of room between here and $115. 
Then after our current COUNTER RALLY UP ..... a move lower is coming.  And as our good folks in the Permian Basin continue to crank up the oil rigs.... that additional supply will produce lower prices.  Greed kills.

I'm NOT as bearish as Tony Seba (he predicts that oil could go down to $25ish).  I'm conservative, I'm looking for something on the order of $35 - $40.  Could it get down to $25?  Sure it could.  Let's face it ..... NOBODY thought oil was going to get up to $147 in 2008.  Prices usually go above where people think they are heading on the way up ...... AND ..... lower than most people think they will go on the down side.  And with every passing month, a little bit more of renewable energy sources are also eating into any upside that oil would have had WITHOUT renewable energy.

But for now.....we have to finish out counter rally up.

I hate to think what will happen to short little Vladi in Russia when prices head south again.  His oligarch pals are not going to be overly thrilled with him.... and the good Russian people will DEFINITLEY not be happy.

I'll post a chart in the next day or two if I can find a GOOD LONG TERM CHART..... that VISUALLY shows the above.

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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2323 on: May 09, 2018, 11:51:38 PM »
Quote
India is getting on board saying it will purchase Iranian oil using the Euro.

I can see some sense in that.  It isn't in India's best interest to have more nuclear weapons in its neighborhood.

And using the euro will send US financial institutions squealing to the White House.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2324 on: May 10, 2018, 12:55:10 AM »
Oil price is up, but increased fracking is adding to the existing natural gas supply glut.

Trump's Iran Move May Kick Worst U.S. Gas Market While It's Down
- Oil rally set to boost natural gas production from Permian
- West Texas gas price seen dropping to zero some days
Quote
President Donald Trump’s decision to scrap the Iran nuclear deal and restore sanctions was great for oil bulls. But for natural gas drillers in America’s hottest shale play, it could be a disaster in the making.

The highest oil prices in more than three years are poised to boost output from areas like West Texas’ Permian Basin, the most prolific U.S. reservoir of the fuel. That would add to the supply of gas that’s produced alongside crude there, making an existing glut even bigger.

A surge in oil drilling would deliver another blow to a gas market that’s already America’s worst. The Permian boom has filled pipelines to capacity, trapping gas in the region and making prices there the cheapest of any major U.S. hub. West Texas gas prices could drop to zero on some days, according to Tudor Pickering Holt & Co., forcing explorers to shut production or burn off excess supplies in a process known as flaring. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-05-09/trump-s-iran-move-may-kick-worst-u-s-gas-market-while-it-s-down
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2325 on: May 10, 2018, 10:00:46 PM »
While it would be nice to believe that higher oil prices will restrict future oil use, I suspect that it will just provide oil companies with more profits that will be used to develop new unconventional oil supplies:

Title: "Wall Street bank predicts oil could hit $100 a barrel in 2019"

https://www.axios.com/oil-prices-might-spike-to-100-a-barrell-next-year-976cb2a9-1c81-4f75-8c94-51c1da1289d3.html

Extract: "Bank of America predicts that oil prices could spike to $100 a barrel next year, a price not seen since 2014, Bloomberg's Grant Smith reports."
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2326 on: May 11, 2018, 03:22:53 PM »

I'll post a chart in the next day or two if I can find a GOOD LONG TERM CHART..... that VISUALLY shows the above.

Try http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

Charts and DATA downloads on all sorts of stuff besides oil. (I've bookmarked the site for myself)

e.g. WTI chart attached
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2327 on: May 11, 2018, 05:15:43 PM »
Gasoline price in the U.S..  Trend is UP.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2328 on: May 11, 2018, 05:34:15 PM »
Global prices have been suppressed since Saudi Arabia dumped onto the market to drive the price down in response to Iraq (and then Iran) putting their oil on the market.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2329 on: May 11, 2018, 05:59:50 PM »
Global prices have been suppressed since Saudi Arabia dumped onto the market to drive the price down in response to Iraq (and then Iran) putting their oil on the market.

But the U.S., at least, is freaking over the administration’s potential withdrawl from the Iran nuclear agreement, and sanctions changes.  For one thing, insurers may no longer cover oil shipments from the country.  No insurance would mean no shipments for many oil companies.
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2330 on: May 11, 2018, 07:53:11 PM »
Weekly "rig count" up again ..... 6th week in a row.... half of them in the Permian Basin (east Texas, west New Mexico).  Keep adding rigs boys .....

Quote
(Reuters) - U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for a sixth week in a row as crude prices continue to soar to multi-year highs after new sanctions on Iran are anticipated to take some supply out of the market, further supporting U.S. drilling and pushing production to record highs.

Drillers added 10 oil rigs in the week to May 11, bringing the total count to 844, the highest level since March 2015, General Electric Co’s Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday.

That was the first time energy firms added rigs for six weeks in a row since early March.

More than half the total oil rigs are in Permian basin in west Texas and eastern New Mexico, the nation’s biggest shale oil field. Active units there increased by five this week to 463, the most since January 2015.

The U.S. government expects oil output in the Permian to rise to a record high near 3.2 million barrels per day in May, about 30 percent of total U.S. oil production.

The U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, is much higher than a year ago when 712 rigs were active as energy companies have been ramping up production in tandem with OPEC’s efforts to cut global output in a bid to take advantage of rising prices.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-rigs-baker-hughes/u-s-drillers-add-oil-rigs-for-sixth-consecutive-week-baker-hughes-idUSKBN1IC253
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2331 on: May 15, 2018, 01:10:16 PM »
A sign of the times when the money men run away from oil?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/14/investors-urge-fossil-fuel-firms-shun-trump-arctic-drilling-plans-alaskan-wilderness
Quote
Investors urge fossil fuel firms to shun Trump's Arctic drilling plans
Oil extraction in Alaskan wilderness area would be an ‘irresponsible business decision’, trillion-dollar investors say


Investors managing more than $2.5tn have warned oil firms and banks to shun moves by the US president, Donald Trump, to open the Arctic national wildlife refuge (ANWR) to drilling.

Companies extracting oil and gas from the wilderness area in Alaska would face “enormous reputational risk and public backlash”, the investors say in a letter sent on Monday to 100 fossil fuel companies and the banks that finance them.

Exploiting the area would also be an “irresponsible business decision”, the group argues, as global action on climate change will reduce oil demand and mean such projects have a high risk of losing money. An accompanying letter from the indigenous Gwich’in people say it would be “deeply unethical” to destroy their homelands.......
......
However, Alaska’s congressional representatives, who are all Republican, strongly support the drilling plan, suggesting it could bring in $1bn to state and federal governments in the next decade. When the plan to open the ANWR for oil and gas exploitation was announced,  it was “the single-most important step we can take to strengthen our long-term energy security and create new wealth”.

Murkowski, also chairman of the Senate committee on energy and natural resources, said: “Responsible development is limited to just 2,000 federal acres – just one ten-thousandth of all of ANWR.”
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2332 on: May 15, 2018, 01:53:21 PM »
Two pillars that have been pushing UP oil prices have been (1) cut backs by OPEC + Russia, and (2) increased oil consumption by China.  That second pillar looks like it may be weakening and bares watching over the coming weeks and next few months.

Soft China April investment, retail sales suggest economy losing steam

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-april-investment-retail-sales-growth-slows-factory-040929296--business.html
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2333 on: May 15, 2018, 02:21:58 PM »
Now that I live here, I understand better why ANWR is so terrible — apart from the generic ridiculousness of allowing drilling in a wildlife refuge.

Those are the breeding grounds of a large caribou herd. You put industrial activity in breeding grounds and the caribou will move — likely to somewhere that can’t maintain the same population.

That’s terrible for the caribou, but also for indigenous populations who feed themselves by hunting caribou.

And it’s an international issue: the herd migrates between the US and Canada.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2334 on: May 15, 2018, 06:26:13 PM »
Quote
Investors managing more than $2.5tn have warned oil firms and banks to shun moves by the US president, Donald Trump, to open the Arctic national wildlife refuge (ANWR) to drilling.

Companies extracting oil and gas from the wilderness area in Alaska would face “enormous reputational risk and public backlash”, the investors say in a letter sent on Monday to 100 fossil fuel companies and the banks that finance them.

But they fail to mention a possible demand decay starting before new oil fields could be developed and brought online. 

While one may be skeptical that battery powered cars, trucks, and buses are posed to push aside petroleum powered vehicle it's highly foolish to ignore the possibility.  The electrification of transportation needs to be identified as a potential risk for investments in new oil.

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2335 on: May 15, 2018, 06:41:25 PM »
ANWR oil is cheap to produce. It's onshore, near an existing pipeline, conventional oil. The price could drop a lot and it would still be economically viable if you're just looking at revenues versus expenditures.

This isn't like the Arctic offshore oil, which is some of the most expensive oil on the planet.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2336 on: May 16, 2018, 02:01:18 PM »
ANWR oil is cheap to produce. It's onshore, near an existing pipeline, conventional oil. The price could drop a lot and it would still be economically viable if you're just looking at revenues versus expenditures.

This isn't like the Arctic offshore oil, which is some of the most expensive oil on the planet.
Hmm, if CAPEX included social and economic capital as well as financial capital, the ratio might not look so rosy..

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2337 on: May 16, 2018, 02:20:24 PM »
If externalities were properly priced, oil would be extremely expensive.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2338 on: May 16, 2018, 04:38:22 PM »
If externalities were priced in we would already be using 100% renewable energy.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2339 on: May 19, 2018, 05:08:56 PM »
U.S. regulators vote to limit practice of measuring climate impact of pipelines
Democrats on the panel disagree with the decision to diminish greenhouse gas reviews.
Quote
Federal regulators appeared to defy a 2017 court ruling when they decided not to take greenhouse gas emissions into account as part of their review of natural gas pipeline applications.

Last year, a federal court ruled that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) must fully consider the so-called downstream effects of a pipeline project’s greenhouse gases, particularly the effects of emissions from natural gas-fired power plants that contribute to climate change.

But in a 3-2 vote, FERC ruled Friday that federal laws do not require it to consider greenhouse gas emissions caused by the production or consumption of natural gas that would inevitably result from the approval of a pipeline project.

The policy change wasn’t announced in its own separate order. Instead, it was tucked inside an otherwise routine decision rejecting an appeal of its approval of a pipeline project in New York proposed by Dominion Energy. ...
https://thinkprogress.org/ferc-votes-to-end-practice-of-indirect-climate-reviews-10f5cc7adb1d/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2340 on: May 19, 2018, 07:33:36 PM »
U.S.:  Atlantic Coast Pipeline Faces Civil Rights Complaint After Key Permit Is Blocked
Quote
A federal court has invalidated a key permit for the Atlantic Coast pipeline project, a step that could give civil rights advocates more time to build their environmental justice case against the $6 billion project to carry natural gas from West Virginia to North Carolina.

Opponents of the Atlantic Coast pipeline allege the Dominion Energy-led project would have a disproportionate impact on people of color living along its route. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18052018/atlantic-coast-pipeline-natural-gas-civil-rights-environmental-justice-epa
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2341 on: May 19, 2018, 08:18:48 PM »
If externalities were priced in we would already be using 100% renewable energy.

Yes. If external impacts of most economic activity were captured and accounted for (tragedy of the commons) we would transform our economies.

Archimid

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2342 on: May 19, 2018, 08:39:43 PM »
Maybe as the true cost of improperly disposing of the byproduct of combustion start to show its ugly face, the people with the most to lose (those with the most) get serious about this.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2343 on: May 19, 2018, 10:12:29 PM »
Maybe as the true cost of improperly disposing of the byproduct of combustion start to show its ugly face, the people with the most to lose (those with the most) get serious about this.

We saw that happen in the US back in the 1970s when some of our cities had terrible air pollution problems and we had a river catch on fire.

We're now seeing pressure to clean up the air happening in China and India.

As people understand that renewables produce cheaper electricity than using fossil fuels look for public pressure to grow.  Same will happen as people become familiar with battery powered buses and delivery vehicles.

Probably the most effective thing any of us to do is to get the message out.  There's no longer a need to suffer from bad air.  We have viable, cheaper alternatives.

People respond to immediate problems better than problems which will happen sometime in the future.  It's just a product of our evolution.  Do what you can to make people aware of the health damage and its cost that fossil fuels create.  Make them aware of how renewables are now cheaper.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2344 on: May 21, 2018, 07:48:16 PM »
U.S.:  Senator Markey will be introducing legislation today to reinstate the oil export ban.

As Gas Prices Rise, Senator Markey Releases New Plan to Address President Trump’s “Oil Risk Tax”
https://www.markey.senate.gov/news/press-releases/as-gas-prices-rise-senator-markey-releases-new-plan-to-address-president-trumps-oil-risk-tax

”Since President Trump took office, gas prices have risen 25%, with average U.S. consumer now paying roughly $350 more/year to fill up.”
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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2345 on: May 23, 2018, 01:06:55 AM »
Platts has an article about natgas peakers facing competion from batteries.

"The US has 120 GW of operating gas peaker capacity and 20 GW of peaker capacity planned by 2017"

"The median capacity factor of the US' 120 GW of gas peaking capacity was 3% and the median hours of run time per start was 5.3 in 2017"

"on a $/MWh levalized cost of energy basis, eight-hour lithium-ion battery storage becomes competitive with peaking gas combustion turbines around 2022 and energy storage economics continuously improve to 2027, while gas peaker economics worsen. As a result, 32% of new US gas peaker capacity is at risk from four-hour storage by 2027"

" "We could replace every gas peaker in the US with batteries right now if we wanted to, but it probably wouldn't make economic sense everywhere," said Abe Silverman, vice president for the regulatory affairs group and deputy general counsel at power producer NRG Energy."

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/newyork/battery-energy-storage-on-verge-of-competing-27984707

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2346 on: May 23, 2018, 01:36:44 AM »
UBS warns there could be an oil price spike to $100 that triggers a US recession
• Oil prices have risen above a "sweet spot" between $50 and $70 a barrel that encourages global growth, according to Swiss investment bank UBS.
• If oil prices rise another $20 to $100 a barrel, UBS said it would dent global growth and boost send and index of consumer prices higher.
• UBS said prices could keep rallying for several reasons, putting the U.S. economy at risk of entering a recession.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/oil-prices-at-100-could-trim-global-growth-trigger-us-recession-ubs.html
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2347 on: May 23, 2018, 09:21:22 AM »
Not a problem Sig, we've still got $20.91 to go before we reach that $100 mark. - besides one of our members told us he was sure that we'd see $40/Bbl before we saw $80/Bbl. ::)


And he said it in bolded caps!

Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2348 on: May 23, 2018, 09:45:12 AM »
Not a problem Sig, we've still got $20.91 to go before we reach that $100 mark. - besides one of our members told us he was sure that we'd see $40/Bbl before we saw $80/Bbl. ::)


And he said it in bolded caps!

Terry

I hope that wasn't me....

Some high oil prices and resulting high fuel prices that lingered for awhile would be a boon to EVs.

We really need some sub $30k options. 

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2349 on: May 23, 2018, 10:10:44 AM »
I hope that wasn't me....


Not unless you have huge flat feet - and quack loudly ;)


High fuel prices are very good news for renewables as well as upping the efficiency of everything. I do hope we don't end up with a severe recession, Those least able to withstand a downturn are those who will be hurt most severely.
A downswing before the election will be extremely positive for the Dems in the midterms. If we can just get some true progressives into power, we might make some real headway.


As a side note the Liberals are in real trouble hear in Ontario, I'm hoping the economy can be propped up until after the June election. The clown the Conservative Party is running is the brother of the buffoon that was the Mayor of Toronto a few years back. He makes Trump look like a wise Statesman. :-\
Terry
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