I made a bet with a friend many, many months ago ..... when the price of Exxon/Mobil (XOM) was about $80. The bet I made was "XOM will get down to $60 BEFORE it sees $90.
So right now..... my friend and I are in the same place that we started many months ago. I believe that I WILL win that bet.... as I see XOM with a HIGH probability to get down to $60 in the months ahead.
But out of the GAZILLION things I DON'T KNOW ...... is this: Will XOM get down to $30 - $35 before it ever gets to $90 (some decade in the future... if ever)? Right now XOM is at about $80.
THAT.... is a VERY REAL POSSIBILITY. Everywhere I look ...... EVERYBODY is moving to electric power from ICE in the transportation industry: Cars, Semi Trucks, Vans, small boat engines (Torqeedo outboard engines), yachts (Solarwave 55, 64, 75 catamaran), scooters, motorcycles, regional hybrid planes, small planes, ferry's etc.
Now.... granted.... some of it is just at the very beginning like Solarwave Catamaran yachts, and we're talking small amounts (right now). But it is EVERYWHERE. And soon.... in the next 2 years or so .... prices are going to blow ICE out of the water.
Of course oil prices are set by supply and demand CURRENTLY. But the asset price of STOCKS are different. People don't HAVE to "store" stocks like they do oil. In the oil market, somebody HAS to take "delivery" of the oil.
There is a lot of money wrapped up in the energy sector ..... and eventually a LOT of it is going to be "heading out of Dodge". I think that process actually started in 2014 ..... and will continue for quite a while.
Interesting times we live in......